Tier 4

[bp122]

Fair enough

 

[clogs]

the last I heard here was that 15 people were infected and in hospital...no regisered death's tho.....

Here all people out with masks on and the whole measure is taken very seriously.....
not too many young here....and those that are observing the rules.....instant €90-150 euro fine for the noughty ones.....

from what I see of the UK news there's not enough room to lock up those silly young people flouting the rules....
while they carry on the same nothing will change...this awful problem take's youngsters as well as old'un, dont they realise.....
This time of year...

My daughter is a Paramedic and worked off her feet......

for us the same as usual.....no family (to far away and cant travel anyway).....
so we will have a quiet time, not to much good food (watching the waist line) and watch Disney, Pixar as per the norm....
Christmas morning I norm go to the workshop and sweep up while lunch is cooking....
Boxing day take the dogs to the local beach for a cpouple of hours, which is allowed......hahaha.....poo bags ready....

you guys n girls I wish u all the best and for a safe time this season....

 

[bp122]

My wife raised an interesting question just now about schools.
A lot of kids in Haddenham (Bucks, Tier 4) go to Lord Bill's school in Thame (Oxfordshire, Tier 2)
How is that going to work when schools reopen?

 

[Jameshow]

Speaking to (Doctor) wife about this; the concerns are mainly that:

1. It's a pretty rapid mutation (vs e.g. flu) - which may complicate chasing it with an updated vaccine
2. Will the currently developed vaccines be effective against this new strain

I had an identical conversation this morning.

This is the big elephant in the room will the vaccine be effective against the new mutation??

Cheers James

 

[Woody2Shoes]

well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity

 

[Ditch 08]

The problem seems to be that Government action is not always driven by medical best practice. Instead, economic and social aspects drive decision making.

I return to the UK tomorrow (I hope) and I have to isolate for five full days before I can have a test on boxing day. Had I had a few extra quid in my bank account, or been an expert at kicking pigs' bladders into a net, then I wouldn't. Yet I can see no medical justification for this distinction.

HMG was too keen to ignore medical advice and reopen businesses, waive rules for Xmas etc - and this is the result. Remember the photos of non-socially distanced maskless shoppers? Had they instead operated an entirely medical driven approach then I believe yesterday's announcement would not have been necessary.

I would just be thankful that you are allowed to re-enter the country if I was you and stop complaining. Boris is dammed if does & dammed if he doesn't. Would you want to be the person that gets up and say "Sorry no Christmas this year". If you want to blame anyone, decide who/where this all started and blame them. Unfortunately C19 is here, brought in by travelers who had it and we now have to combat this together taking the advise from our PM and his team working with him. We will all be able to have our say when its over,
My final point is that no-one has any idea of what will be the final outcome as we have never in the past had anything like this in the past. Yes we had the Black Death but this took years to get here, Spanish Flu after WW1 took time to spread (and did not infect the whole planet). This one spread out of control very quickly mainly as we can get around by flying etc.
So far I have lost a brother in-law to it, and my sister and my son are both still suffering the long term effects have had it. Just be thankful still to be here.

 

[Jake]

This is the big elephant in the room will the vaccine be effective against the new mutation??

The current prevailing view seems to be that the changes are not big enough to affect efficacy.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence...

How come they're all in the cabinet ??

 

[Jake]

The flu has multiple strains and each year the *** only protects against four of them, decided by the WHO in March each year as being the most likely to be the ones that will be a problem. Will a coronavirus *** be the end of all this? Of course not.

Flu is quite different and much more able to change itself radically. It has segmented RNA within which segments can be switched around in different combinations by mutation, making big changes in one leap. Covid doesn't, it is just one long chain, so mutation is more constrained.

 

[Jake]

Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!

The numbers were very clear, the cause was still being investigated. The government was aware of the possibility as it was identified as a potential issue in early December.

 

[Jake]

I haven't verified this, but if it's genuine it raises some questions.

It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.

 

[porker]

My wife raised an interesting question just now about schools.
A lot of kids in Haddenham (Bucks, Tier 4) go to Lord Bill's school in Thame (Oxfordshire, Tier 2)
How is that going to work when schools reopen?

Was also wondering that. I don't live far from you (in Bucks) and need to go to Thame for a medical appointment (which I think is still allowed) but usually do some shopping (essential) in Thame when I am there. I guess I'm not allowed to do this? i will err on the side of caution and shop in Bucks.

I know a few people who have had C19. My neice in Devon tested positive for it but the symptoms were not too bad. Her boss (35'ish) was hospitalised with it. Both managers from her and her brothers firms (both international firms) took the wrong and inappropriate course of action wrt to government advice. I seriously wonder about the basic intelligence of some people.

To me this has been right from the start about one main point - stopping the NHS being overwhelmed. I think most people who say it won't affect them etc. are missing the point. I'm not particulary worried about it either from my own perspective although I am classed as vulnerable because I suffer from diabetes - what I am concerned about is me spreading it to people where it does matter. This disease can increase at exponential rates very quickly and everyone needs to play their part. Problem is, too many people think they are the exception and to be fair I've seen it in the older population as much as the young.

Stay safe everyone

 

[Jacob]

It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.

Actually may not be fake (I haven't checked), but neither is the answer simple, as I posted earlier
"Some answers: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
Note the sharp 2020 upturn in the year on year graph and the great leap after March in the 2020 graph"

 

[artie]

It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.

Where did you verify it?

 

[Anthraquinone]

That O.N.S. page is probably the best source of info of Covid in the UK. (excluding Facebook and twitter of course)

The most telling statistic is

"In November 2020, there were 47,910 deaths registered in England, 6,241 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019) for November; in Wales, there were 3,363 deaths registered, 576 deaths more than the five-year average for November. "

And it will probably be worse in the next few months.

Happy Christmas everyone

 

[Jake]

Actually may not be fake (I haven't checked), but neither is the answer simple, as I posted earlier
"Some answers: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
Note the sharp 2020 upturn in the year on year graph and the great leap after March in the 2020 graph"

It is fake, it was debunked by an actuary I follow on Twitter, it is comparing a not full month [edit: year] with prior full months {edit: years] and also is just wrong anyway.

 

[Jake]

Here, it is not the actuary I follow (Stuart McDonald - @ActuaryByDay, an excellent source of info) but he retweeted it.

It was direct from someone from the ONS

 

[Jake]

That O.N.S. page is probably the best source of info of Covid in the UK. (excluding Facebook and twitter of course)

I wouldn't listen to anything on Facebook even if I was on it, but there are so many good sources on Twitter if you are careful and selective. There is obviously a whole world of carp and trolling and mis/disinfo too, but there is nowhere else that can provide direct access to so many actual verified/verifiable expert voices.

 

[Jacob]

Here, it is not the actuary I follow (Stuart McDonald - @ActuaryByDay, an excellent source of info) but he retweeted it.

It was direct from someone from the ONS

OK. Figures easy to misunderstand but even easier to misrepresent!
I'm arguing with anti vax nutters in another part of the wood.

 

[artie]

It is fake, it was debunked by an actuary I follow on Twitter, it is comparing a not full month [edit: year] with prior full months {edit: years] and also is just wrong anyway.

I didn't claim it was true, because I cannot stand over that claim.

You have claimed it is fake. and claiming further that because someone claiming to be an actuary on twitter said so.

Anyway whether it is or not. We will soon be at the year end and total deaths will be easily comparable. At least I hope so.