One-*** efficacy questions

[Blackswanwood]

Covid is following its familiar pattern. The early growth of the virus is explosive and then it slows rapidly. Its no secret data - positive tests are slowing rapidly now. You have swallowed the continuous exponential growth theory unless there is lockdown - its been disproved so many times now

I can assure you I haven’t swallowed anything.

In my opinion there is a correlation between lockdowns and curbing the impact of the virus. Without them we would have seen higher peaks with surges lasting over a longer period.

I also recognise though that they are a blunt tool and there is a difficult judgement call as to where the side effects outweigh the benefits. That is made all the more difficult as it involves making decisions with incomplete data that ultimately are a matter of life and death which in my belief goes beyond just the economic impacts.

Anyway thanks for sharing your insight. We’re obviously lucky to have an optimistic expert on virology and statistics amongst us

 

[TominDales]

May I remind you we had one of the strictest lockdowns in the world, so are you saying lockdown didn't work?

They did eventually work. You have again highlighted a glaring issue with UK policy.

I'm no expert on this, but from what I've seen every lockdown was implemented late in the day, weeks after Sage recommended it. The maths dictates that the sooner a lockdown begins the sooner exponential growth is interrupted and lockdown ends much quicker and is for a much short total duration. You pay a bit upfront but reap a dividend later.
Its hard to compare different countries as circumstances are different, but over a range of like countries, Ireland, Spain, France Germany, Denmark, Norway all did lockdowns 1 and 2 quicker than the Uk and theirs ran for much less time than ours. These countries had less infections to get under control, so got back to normal quicker than us.
Italy a bit of an exception in wave one. It did quite a quick lockdown (but the virus was raging earlier there - it caught us in Europe by surprise) , however, they locked down only part of the country so ended up with a double headed locked own. To say we are about as competent as Italy and Brazil is hardly praise.
The UKs statistics, apart from the vaccine role out, are not good 187 deaths per hundred thousand. We are amongst the worlds worst and for a developed country, that lectures the world on pandemic measures, has some of the best Pharma companies and many of the best medical schools in the world that is pretty miserable.

The sad thing about the UK was the government delayed the first lockdown by only about two weeks, but had to extend it for several weeks beyond what our European neighbors needed to. Same with the November lockdown (the bodies pile high debate). In the case of January lockdown, it was bit different, we were hit by a new variant that took us by surprise, in that case people spotted it quite quickly and the government did respond. Most people felt they should have cancelled Christmas, but the last person to do that (Oliver Cromwell) didn't survive the outcome - or his dynasty didn't. The result was 0-3 win to the virus for each wave. What is particularly galling is that in each case we endured a much longer closure of our economy than most other similar countries and still have the deaths, a real double whammy.

 

[D_W]

In a nutshell tests are down because they are in a mess. The current data coming out of India is flawed.

That’s based on talking to people I work with who are in India.

There is another expert on here who may be along soon to point out that based on his secret data India has peaked though ....

Sorry, I thought we were talking about UK tests being down in number.

 

[Mark Hancock]

I've followed this thread with interest along with those other ones that have since been locked and/or removed to another place.
The one thing that's baffled me is why anyone hasn’t tapped into this wealth of knowledge and expertise that has been posted here such as the scientific community, the UK Government or WHO….? Maybe it because the majority of comments in the discussion come from those who appear to have a viewpoint/ agenda they wish to promote rather than being open to considering other points of view. Very few events in history have been resolved without consideration of the views of all parties involved. Just a thought.

 

[sometimewoodworker]

Correlation is not causation. Reduction in cases is fact. Reason for reduction in cases is hypothesis, speculation, theorising, unless you have data to back it up. I'm not saying that less testing isn't the reason for fewer cases, but there could be other reasons, such as, for example, fewer cases?

You have most of your information correct but the above has a glaring error, I have highlighted it, that is unprovable.
it should read reduction of reported number of cases is a fact, miss wording (I assume that it’s mis wording not misunderstanding) reduces the impact of your post as it brings everything into question.

 

[southendwoodworker]

Can covid be spread by farts? It is present in faeces of some people and is linked to diarrhoea. Has this been studied? Wouldn't it be a laugh if it turned out we should have been wearing masks on our buttocks instead of our faces!

I don't know about covid, but I have an odd and interesting thing that was discovered concerning mers or sars. In Taiwan some people in a high rise apartment block caught it, and officials locked down the building. People were locked in their apartments for however long and they couldn't mingle or even see their neighbours. What was surprising and interesting was that some people on a particular floor started catching it. They eventually discovered that there was an empty apartment on that floor and the water in the toilets had evaporated. Infected people from higher up in the building were flushing, and atomised particles that included the virus, were escaping the plumbing system, causing people on the same floor as the empty apartment to catch it.

On a light hearted note, I've been working from home since it all started. I needed a more comfortable chair than my wooden dining table chairs. I asked my work for a chair because my butt was getting really sore. On a video call they wanted to see what was sore. This meant I had to face the camera at my butt, point at it multiple times and say "oww, ouch and owwie" ** . They said they couldn't buy me a chair because of some silly accounting reason. OK, so I asked if I could borrow one from the office, they said no because "we are concerned about viral particles being in the chair once it gets returned to the office". So I asked: "do you mean you are worried about covid fart particles from a chair cushion infecting people?" - their reply: "yes, instead we will buy you a £100 (covid fart) cushion that you can keep". big eye roll.

** disappointingly I didnt get any tips for my on camera butt dance

 

[Dave Moore]

All valid points.
If you look at my linked posts I think the reduction in transmission is more like 80% after one dose of the vaccine.

Currently 34 million have been vaccinated, that still leaves 32 million unvaccinated for the virus to circulate in (including children) plus say 6 million of the vaccinated (based on my 80% figure). So currently plenty of people for the virus to get going again but hopefully not causing too much permanent or serious damage. This perhaps explains the governments staged opening up and does give time for everyone over 18 to be offered the vaccine.

13% of Londoners over 50 have refused the vaccine, so there may be issues there which could be interesting.

Overall I am optimistic, I think the worst is behind us, and we are on our way to something like normality, except perhaps foreign holidays. May be some bumps on the way, like those vulnerable people who have refused the vaccine.

Here is a recent bbc article giving the opinion of the guy who‘s modelling led to the first nationwide restrictions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56988070

This is the guy who has been incorrect in all his modelling for years so why are we listening to him?

 

[RobinBHM]

This is the guy who has been incorrect in all his modelling for years so why are we listening to him?

April 2020 Ferguson said: "we could see 100,000 deaths by end of year"

In March 2020 Furgeson said: "herd immunity approach could see hundreds of thousands dead"

 

[RobinBHM]

I've followed this thread with interest along with those other ones that have since been locked and/or removed to another place.
The one thing that's baffled me is why anyone hasn’t tapped into this wealth of knowledge and expertise that has been posted here such as the scientific community, the UK Government or WHO….? Maybe it because the majority of comments in the discussion come from those who appear to have a viewpoint/ agenda they wish to promote rather than being open to considering other points of view. Very few events in history have been resolved without consideration of the views of all parties involved. Just a thought.

It is rather odd that the govt get advice from some 80 odd leading scientists, yet there are a few on here that KNOW lockdowns don't work.

How could the govt get it so wrong?

 

[Jonm]

This is the guy who has been incorrect in all his modelling for years so why are we listening to him?

I have done some traffic modelling in the past and it is incredibly difficult to predict the future. As for modelling the spread of an emerging disease I would not know where to start. At the beginning of this pandemic the predictions gave a range of deaths from 20k to something much higher like 140k. The comment that sticks in my mind was “20,000 deaths would be a good outcome”.

I can remember saying that I thought it would be no more than 20k deaths, a bit like a bad flue year. I thought the media were just scaremongering. Well I got that wrong.

With regard to Professor Ferguson would you be able to point me in the direction of the articles where he has been “incorrect in all his modelling for years”. I would like to form my own opinion of his credibility. I find that some of the media reporting of what scientists say can be sensationalist and incorrect/misleading.

 

[Rorschach]

How could the govt get it so wrong?

So the government always gets things right?

 

[Rorschach]

I can remember saying that I thought it would be no more than 20k deaths, a bit like a bad flue year. I thought the media were just scaremongering. Well I got that wrong.

I guess it will depend on what we classify as a death and if Covid actually caused death of someone who would have lived for many more years or did it bring forward the death of someone who had say less than 2 years to live in poor health in a care home.

We won't really be able to work this out for a couple of years but as an example. We are told we have 150k excess deaths over the Covid period (assuming it's over). If over the next 2 years we actually see 50k less deaths per year then did Covid really kill 150k people or did it accelerate the deaths of 100k people and kill 50k? Of course this will be very difficult to work out properly because the NPI's used will cause/have caused excess deaths in areas such as cancer, heart disease etc.

 

[Selwyn]

I can assure you I haven’t swallowed anything.

In my opinion there is a correlation between lockdowns and curbing the impact of the virus. Without them we would have seen higher peaks with surges lasting over a longer period.

Except that it is not proven at all. Plenty of other countries haven't locked down. In fact lockdown may even make things worse by keeping people more confined.

 

[Selwyn]

It is rather odd that the govt get advice from some 80 odd leading scientists, yet there are a few on here that KNOW lockdowns don't work.

How could the govt get it so wrong?

We don't have a Parliament convening to debate it, we ostracise other very well qualified epidimiologists and propagandise one monolithic view of "The Science". So lets put it another way - we are letting 80 people on SAGE decided the future of the country and they are not all qualified to speak on covid

 

[Chris152]

With regard to Professor Ferguson would you be able to point me in the direction of the articles where he has been “incorrect in all his modelling for years”.

It's the kind of throw away, 'I'm so intimate with this research I can confidently say this kind of thing' remark that you encounter among the anti-lockdown/ anti-vax/ covid denier clever clogs on the wider net. The best one I encountered was a discussion on a BMJ article in which another clever clogs announced with great authority that the editor in chief of the BMJ changed his mind on covid more often than he changed his underpants. Ha, I don't just know my onions, I'm so clever can even laugh at these people. I was happy to point out that the editor in chief is a woman, the clever clog went quiet.

 

[Chris152]

I guess it will depend on what we classify as a death

Do you have an alternative view on that, too?

 

[Jonm]

It is rather odd that the govt get advice from some 80 odd leading scientists, yet there are a few on here that KNOW lockdowns don't work.

How could the govt get it so wrong?

Sweden did not go in to lockdown at the beginning of this pandemic. Much lower density of population than us. Much smaller cities than us. Stockholm is spread out over a load of islands. Death rate is lower than us but much larger than similar countries like Norway which did go in to lockdown. Not sure whether restriction were tightened later.

I would expect those on here who are saying that lockdowns are unnecessary would be talking about Sweden, but it does not get a mention.

Please note- I am not giving an opinion here, just asking a question.

 

[Selwyn]

I guess it will depend on what we classify as a death and if Covid actually caused death of someone who would have lived for many more years or did it bring forward the death of someone who had say less than 2 years to live in poor health in a care home.

Sweden did not go in to lockdown at the beginning of this pandemic. Much lower density of population than us. Much smaller cities than us. Stockholm is spread out over a load of islands. Death rate is lower than us but much larger than similar countries like Norway which did go in to lockdown. Not sure whether restriction were tightened later.

I would expect those on here who are saying that lockdowns are unnecessary would be talking about Sweden, but it does not get a mention.

Please note- I am not giving an opinion here, just asking a question.

Look at Florida, South Dakota, Texas etc.

Why are Norway and Sweden similar?

 

[Rorschach]

Do you have an alternative view on that, too?

Absolutely, it's very important we clarify what is/isn't a covid death. Just look at what happened last year when the government had to change the reporting and a huge number of deaths dropped off the charts. If for example someone is dying with terminal cancer and has maybe weeks to live, but then catches Covid, is that really a covid death? While technically it fits the category, in the past we would have still classed them as a cancer death even though it isn't usually the cancer that actually ends their life, it's a secondary infection.
A family member died of dementia, but it wasn't the dementia that "killed" them, it was a combination of pneumonia and infected bed sores because the dementia made them bed bound and eventually their heart gave up from the stress and the doctors didn't resuscitate him. So what killed him? If he had a positive covid death within 28 days it would have been a covid death. Do you see my point?

 

[Selwyn]

Absolutely, it's very important we clarify what is/isn't a covid death. Just look at what happened last year when the government had to change the reporting and a huge number of deaths dropped off the charts. If for example someone is dying with terminal cancer and has maybe weeks to live, but then catches Covid, is that really a covid death? While technically it fits the category, in the past we would have still classed them as a cancer death even though it isn't usually the cancer that actually ends their life, it's a secondary infection.
A family member died of dementia, but it wasn't the dementia that "killed" them, it was a combination of pneumonia and infected bed sores because the dementia made them bed bound and eventually their heart gave up from the stress and the doctors didn't resuscitate him. So what killed him? If he had a positive covid death within 28 days it would have been a covid death. Do you see my point?

And the point is we have never recorded deaths like that before either!