How's this for a conspiracy theory ?

[Stan]

I have no doubt China is watching the West's reaction to the Ukraine war, and will factor that into their plans to invade Taiwan.

 

[Fergie 307]

I think the only positive things to have come out of the whole situation are , firstly, that the nations that have previously been prepared to tolerate Putin's behaviour have finally woken up. Secondly that it has brought into sharp focus how unwise it is to become overly reliant on countries that do not view us in a particularly friendly light. We need to urgently address this in realtion to China. Hopefully this can be accomplished in the long term by bringing us closer together. Quite how we do that given the attitude of the present leaders im not sure. In any case we need to try and reduce our appetite for their products. Never healthy to have so many eggs in the one basket.

 

[Fergie 307]

There is of course another issue, namely that the Russian military machine has proved to be more bark than bite. Very bad for Putin and his bullying tactics, we now know that although his nuclear arsenal remains a concern, his conventional forces are nothing like as effective as he would have had us believe.

 

[Jonm]

The Americans are using Europeans as pawns in there proxy war. China must be happy that the Russians are keeping them occupied whilst they line up Taiwan.

Do you think the USA caused the war in Ukraine?

 

[Fergie 307]

In the second world war the USA and Britain provided enormous quantities of weapons and other war materials to the USSR, to help them defeat a vicious invader. Was that a proxy war?

 

[Spectric]

Do you think the USA caused the war in Ukraine

They have not directly caused it through there actions but have contributed through there lack of actions over the years and previous interventions.

provided enormous quantities of weapons and other war materials to the USSR, to help them defeat a vicious invader. Was that a proxy war?

A big difference because then the cold war had not started and the tensions and mistrust was not on the agenda, now with the hostility between Russia and america this is just an arena for the americans to see there enemy at war, to weigh up the opponent.

 

[Fergie 307]

Were the west to back down now in the face of a nuclear threat, it would send a message to Putin and every other rogue nuclear state they could get what they want through nuclear threat.

N.Korea is a good example - Kim Jong-un is probably certifiable but has a nuclear capability. Iran is close. Pakistan is not the most stable of states and a potential threat.

That nuclear (and biological and chemical) capability would "trickle down" to madmen was inevitable and would need resolution. That time is now.

I think the problem with Kim is that whilst his dad knew we'll enough that the propaganda was mostly b******t, Kim actually believes it.

 

[Spectric]

Maybe that time is now but is it not like having let the camp fire become a huge forrest fire that could have easily been extinguished at the start but now left it to late. So far we have been very lucky, only Cuba got close but still we pursued an arms race and not a peaceful one or tried to resolve any of the trust issues.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

There is no good reason to spell out the response to the use by Russia of tactical nuclear weapons.

Putin would be unsure of the consequences; save they would be severe. Whether the West would respond with tactical nuclear weapons is debatable. Better to leave the outcome in doubt than promise and possibly not deliver.

There is no good reason for Nato troops to engage directly in the war. The Ukrainians are doing a great job using weaponry the west has provided. Any risk of escalation through western troops on the ground is to be avoided.

Putin has offered to switch the gas back on providing there is a deal. It would be unwise to accept his offer despite the obvious pain in the short term. His demands would no doubt include the EU ceasing weapons support to Ukraine. It is just energy blackmail.

All these events have crystallised issues which were previously ignored - Europe must look to its own defence needs, the US will soon be second to China as the global economic lead. Reliance on other regimes for critical infrastructure and extended logistics chains and defence needs is foolish.

 

[Jonm]

but still we pursued an arms race and not a peaceful one or tried to resolve any of the trust issues.

This discussion is going in a circle

That may well have been the case then
but since 1991 Russia has not been communist, we have the oligarchs. I thought the emphasis since then was closeness through trade. Germany and others dependant on Russian gas, lots of western companies investing in Russia.

We had the “peace dividend” and reduced military spending. Removed troops from the continent eg BAOR.

The whole idea was trade not war, Russia joined the G7/G8 in 1998 and the WTO in 2012. This policy has now failed.

I think there was a serious attempt at addressing the “trust issue” after 1991. Germany “trusted“ the Russians to the extent that they put their strategic supply of gas in russian hands. More fool them, and we are paying the price.

edit - In the NATO Baltic states, the “NATO” presence comprised small numbers of troops from UK, France, Germany etc to act as a ”trip wire” in the event of a Russian attack, no threat to Russia.

 

[mikej460]

This is a worrying turn of events, what does he intend to do to Kherson if it falls?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63243313

 

[Spectric]

All this really cast a big shadow over humanity, what sort of race pursues making tools that have no other purpose than killing others and is willing to spend millions in doing so whilst knowing that the money would be of more benefit spent in medical science and in improving life for the living.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

The race that includes junior headbangers?

 

[Fergie 307]

All this really cast a big shadow over humanity, what sort of race pursues making tools that have no other purpose than killing others and is willing to spend millions in doing so whilst knowing that the money would be of more benefit spent in medical science and in improving life for the living.

Can't argue with you there, unfortunately we have always been an aggressive lot us humans. Unless everyone puts their weapons aside at the same time, which is never going to happen, then sadly their will always be a need to have weapons to defend against a potential aggressor. Naturally the tendency is to want more and better weapons than the other guy, so it goes on.

 

[Spectric]

Naturally the tendency is to want more and better weapons than the other guy, so it goes on.

A race to the end, we are supposed to be inteligent yet there is no SI unit for inteligence because it is relative and therefore everyone is inteligent if they compare to the right thing. Makes you think UFO's are real because Earth could be a destination for alien species who want some entertainment.

 

[mikej460]

From Wikipedia (abridged)

 

[Jonm]

This is a worrying turn of events, what does he intend to do to Kherson if it falls?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63243313

Well initially at least there will be a lot of POW’s in Kherson as there is little or no escape route. Any suspicion he is going to nuke it then keep them there.

I suspect there will be a lot of shelling of civilian ares from Russian artillery on the left bank. Then blame it on Ukraine.

 

[Jester129]

What the hell is it with Macron? He's now told Putin that France will not be using their nuclear armaments if
Putin presses the button! Moron Macron!

 

[Blackswanwood]

All this really cast a big shadow over humanity, what sort of race pursues making tools that have no other purpose than killing others and is willing to spend millions in doing so whilst knowing that the money would be of more benefit spent in medical science and in improving life for the living.

I agree. The peace dividend from the end of the Cold War has been wazzed up the wall. It would be much better if we could find a way to stop having wars and military conflict. The role of the UN needs a rethink perhaps.

 

[Fergie 307]

They have not directly caused it through there actions but have contributed through there lack of actions over the years and previous interventions.


A big difference because then the cold war had not started and the tensions and mistrust was not on the agenda, now with the hostility between Russia and america this is just an arena for the americans to see there enemy at war, to weigh up the opponent.

No distrust and tensions during the war? There was enormous distust, mostly on the part of Stalin who was convinced that any issues that caused interruptions to the supply of arms and material to him were examples of bad faith on the part of the USA and Britain. Not to mention the ideological differences, which led to some very poor treatment of our own people working in the USSR, and trying to actually smooth the delivery of the stuff. The begginings of what would become the cold war started long before the war ended.