Selwyn
Established Member
It already is a lottery.
How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?
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It already is a lottery.
Selwyn
Established Member
The problem in the UK is that we live in a throwaway society and place value on everything, so people forget the contributions that the older folk have made and money that HMRC has taken from them during their working lives so now they are looked upon like excess baggage unlike over in the Asian world where family still means a lot more.
I wonder if Mr Sunick has sat down and done some calculations based on the deaths of people of pensionable age, Ie amount saved in not paying pension versus loss of taxation from care homes! The auto industry went through a similar phase where they worked out is it cheaper to rectify the fault or just pay the cost of a few deaths that may occur, but the law courts decided they were putting a value on life.
I wonder if Mr Sunick has sat down and done some calculations based on the deaths of people of pensionable age, Ie amount saved in not paying pension versus loss of taxation from care homes! The auto industry went through a similar phase where they worked out is it cheaper to rectify the fault or just pay the cost of a few deaths that may occur, but the law courts decided they were putting a value on life.
billw
The Tattooed One
The value of a life in the UK for health purposes is around £20k a year, i.e. if treatment would cost over £20k a year then it's not certain that it would be approved, and even then you have to have full quality of life (i.e. if you'd only have half the standard quality of life then the limit is £10k.
So there - now you know how much you're worth
So there - now you know how much you're worth
RichardG64
Member
Of course China oppressed the news of the beginning of the Outbreak and the finding of the Genome of the Virus.
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
Hi Selwyn,
I am not sure what your thinking is in sharing this data. Is there a year where you feel the mortality rate should be accepted as being as good as we want it to be?
German authorities recommend not using AZ vaccine for over 65s due to lack of data showing how effective it is for that age:
https://www.ft.com/content/0190dae8-f751-4876-8404-68a34d9be716Does seem an odd omission. And what happened to the half first dose method, that proved more effective - are they doing more tests on that?
Hm, link doesn't work, I opened the article via Google News.
Selwyn
Established Member
Well firstly it puts 2020 in perspective away from the hysteria.
It was a bad year for deaths, but it wasn't that bad.
I would definitely expect the downward curve of deaths to flatten out over time in the UK now as the gains of longer living get more marginal. I wouldn't rule out the odd blip either for flu or even another covid version
Woodmonkey
Established Member
Robin, whilst I applaud your perseverance I think there comes a point at which you are flogging a dead horse.
Some folk are just not interested in changing their opinion, facts or science be damned.
Chris152 nailed it with his post, I think it makes people feel like they've been smart enough to see through things that the general population aren't smart enough to see.
Some folk are just not interested in changing their opinion, facts or science be damned.
Chris152 nailed it with his post, I think it makes people feel like they've been smart enough to see through things that the general population aren't smart enough to see.
Selwyn
Established Member
Pallet Fancier
Established Member
The entire debacle can be summarised by one key example from the first lockdown: they did not shut down air travel until the very end... the very end... of the first lockdown. Wouldn't that be the very first thing you'd do? Or is that just me?
Never mind that this lockdown wouldn't have happened at all if Macron hadn't come over, greeted Johnson with "Buddha hands" on the steps of Downing Street, and then gone inside the told him to shut the borders or Europe was going to shut them for him.
Which leads handily on to the other reason the UK has failed. We've failed because Johnson cannot lead. He just wants to make speeches and play with words. He absolutely doesn't want to make decisions. He's a kid who won't do his homework until he's eating his breakfast on the day of the deadline, and then lack of time forces him to just select answer b for all the multiple choice questions and hope that maybe 20% of them are accidentally correct!
There's another reason he does this, however, beyond his own major character flaws. His support base wouldn't stand for any pre-emptive, preventative measures. If Johnson had been possessed by Jacinda Ahern and done exactly as New Zealand did, his own support base would have knifed him because they simply wouldn't accept that such measures were preventing a greater disaster. So to keep them happy, and to justify his actions, he has to wait until the disaster is more or less upon us, then he can point to it and say "See! I have to do this thing, now!"
On top of that, we've got a Tory party full of sycophants and self-interested tax-avoiding millionaires, after the last of the old guard of Torys was thrown out of the party after the 2019 General Election. There are no old hands with enough cache left to countermand all the new members who came in, the new 80 MPs who were all selected to stand for election based on their craven loyalty to Johnson and to a hard brexit.
I'm going to stop now. My blood pressure is rising.
Never mind that this lockdown wouldn't have happened at all if Macron hadn't come over, greeted Johnson with "Buddha hands" on the steps of Downing Street, and then gone inside the told him to shut the borders or Europe was going to shut them for him.
Which leads handily on to the other reason the UK has failed. We've failed because Johnson cannot lead. He just wants to make speeches and play with words. He absolutely doesn't want to make decisions. He's a kid who won't do his homework until he's eating his breakfast on the day of the deadline, and then lack of time forces him to just select answer b for all the multiple choice questions and hope that maybe 20% of them are accidentally correct!
There's another reason he does this, however, beyond his own major character flaws. His support base wouldn't stand for any pre-emptive, preventative measures. If Johnson had been possessed by Jacinda Ahern and done exactly as New Zealand did, his own support base would have knifed him because they simply wouldn't accept that such measures were preventing a greater disaster. So to keep them happy, and to justify his actions, he has to wait until the disaster is more or less upon us, then he can point to it and say "See! I have to do this thing, now!"
On top of that, we've got a Tory party full of sycophants and self-interested tax-avoiding millionaires, after the last of the old guard of Torys was thrown out of the party after the 2019 General Election. There are no old hands with enough cache left to countermand all the new members who came in, the new 80 MPs who were all selected to stand for election based on their craven loyalty to Johnson and to a hard brexit.
I'm going to stop now. My blood pressure is rising.
Terry - Somerset
Established Member
Analysis of why the UK did so poorly without resorting to simplistic political point scoring would be more useful. Focus on the issues, not just because you don't like the Tories.
I regard Jeremy Corbyn, who would otherwise be PM had he not utterly failed at the last election, as a man driven by political ideology, supported by incompetent sycophants (John McDonnell being an exception). But this does not explain what went wrong with covid.
Track and trace only works with low levels of infection. We did not get this right. When new cases exceed 10k per day it becomes ineffective.
The UK has a policing by consent culture. It has limited capacity to force compliance, unlike other parts of the world.
The UK believes social irresponsibility is a right. Other cultures place a high value on personal adherence to social norms.
The UK is very fertile ground to encourage the spread of a virus. It is passed on by social interaction. We allow misinformation to flourish. We are more concerned to protect peoples rights than lives. We have neither the culture or capability to ensure compliance.
We were sitting ducks waiting for a pandemic to occur. Government repsonse may have been different with a different administration, but I suspect the outcome may have been very similar.
I regard Jeremy Corbyn, who would otherwise be PM had he not utterly failed at the last election, as a man driven by political ideology, supported by incompetent sycophants (John McDonnell being an exception). But this does not explain what went wrong with covid.
- the UK had totally inadequate contingency plans - lack of PPE, testing capacity, ventilators etc. This is the fault of earlier governments - possibly going back several decades.
- By around 14th March, the track and trace strategy was stopped on the grounds that infection in the community was too widespread. A contingency planning weakness.
- Boris locked down a week too late. Certainly with hindsight he was wrong.
- I'm am unconvinced closing borders would have made any real difference once community infection was widespread. NZ are the end of a branch line, UK is a hub. Comparison is pointless.
- Boris should have held the first lockdown a few weeks more to get infection rates right down over the summer.
- Boris delayed the second lockdown by 2-3 weeks contrary to scientific advice
- The mutated virus was not predictable and made what may have been an otherwise reasonable plan over xmas wrong.
- The vaccine rollout can thus far only be judged a great success
- Education was and is a shambles
Track and trace only works with low levels of infection. We did not get this right. When new cases exceed 10k per day it becomes ineffective.
The UK has a policing by consent culture. It has limited capacity to force compliance, unlike other parts of the world.
The UK believes social irresponsibility is a right. Other cultures place a high value on personal adherence to social norms.
The UK is very fertile ground to encourage the spread of a virus. It is passed on by social interaction. We allow misinformation to flourish. We are more concerned to protect peoples rights than lives. We have neither the culture or capability to ensure compliance.
We were sitting ducks waiting for a pandemic to occur. Government repsonse may have been different with a different administration, but I suspect the outcome may have been very similar.
doctor Bob
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good post
Blackswanwood
Still Learning
Thanks Selwyn.
I‘m very much aware that we have an ageing population. In part this is down to how the population grew in the past but of course as your first graph shows medical science has also extended life expectancy. This is on balance I believe a good thing but that’s not to gloss over the challenges it brings with an older population dependent on the tax revenues generated by a smaller working population.
I don’t think however this data supports a case to let the virus rip (which is my shorthand for what I think you have put forward in earlier posts). I also don’t agree with your interpretation of the data that lockdowns are ineffective at controlling the spread of the virus. I do feel that we cannot lockdown or preserve life at any cost and a balance has to be struck.
This may be different to your view and I respect your right to see the world differently to me. It’s worth noting however that just because I have a different view to you doesn’t mean I believe in unicorns or never come out of my bedroom!
Stay safe.
Selwyn
Established Member
Ironically we didn't need those ventilators we were short of.
They did have a ppe problem but also there was a lot of ppe hoarding. They were equipped for ppe for flu not covid.
I doubt a week really made a difference in lockdown.
Infection rates came down precisely because it was summer, not because it was lockdown. Spain did a super duper lockdown with masks outdoors and indoors etc and infections still rose in October. Don't kid yourself we would have rid of it. It will be interesting to see what happens in OZ/ NZ this winter..
We are just having a rise in all virus this time of year in Western Europe. It will be a different story later on.
Selwyn
Established Member
Ah "let rip", another lockdown fanatic favourite! Yes asking those who are particularly vulnerable to the virus to shield is really letting rip isn't it?
I think lockdowns are totally pointless and massively damaging once a virus has spread which it has
Awac
Established Member
Can we please ask all members of the current government to allay the nations fears of such a test and publicly take the test live on TV.......maybe we could employ some people who came over with the Windrush in a show of solidarity to apply the tests, after all they received the same treatment from the government, so who better?
Awac
Established Member
Shouldn't be.
Misterdog
Established Member
May have been.
A member of Sage said on Newsnight that he thought there might be another 40 to 50 thousand deaths yet to come. Though he did not mention over what time frame.
If this vaccine is only as effective as the flu vaccine I suspect we will see multiple thousand deaths each year.
Are we going to go into lockdown every year ?
Rishi Sunak told a House Of Commons select committee at the start of the pandemic that he though unemployment would hit - double digits.
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