Trainee neophyte
Established Member
It's a fine quote, but lots of people have used it. I just don't know who was first.
House Buying - Advice?
- Thread starter BearTricks
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It's a fine quote, but lots of people have used it. I just don't know who was first.
simisworkshop
New member
I totally get where you're coming from. The housing market has been crazy since COVID, and it's hard to know what the right move is.
Glossopguy
Established Member
We were in a similar boat recently. We put offers on a few houses but kept getting outbid, even on properties that needed a lot of work.
We decided to pause and re-evaluate. Prices might stabilize or even drop, so it could be worth waiting a bit if you're not in a rush.
We decided to pause and re-evaluate. Prices might stabilize or even drop, so it could be worth waiting a bit if you're not in a rush.
Apologies if what I am about to say is obvious...
House prices (as almost anything) reflect a supply-demand relationship. In the short term, house supply is a good example of “perfect inelastic” supply curve: it can’t react quickly to match changes of demand. So, unless the area you are targeting already has a major development underway, don’t expect new supply to change in that area shortly.
That brings us to demand (the total number of people interested in and capable of buying a particular product or service). In general, demand for homes in the UK is much higher than the supply. As the supply curve is inelastic, any factor that increases demand (like the stamp duty holiday of 2020) will directly hike prices up and any factor that reduces demand (like the recent increase on interest rates) will push prices down. Unless you have information that the area that you are targeting has a particular recent or incoming factor to change demand (like a recent increase in crime or the opening of a new top-grade school), you may expect it to follow the macro trends.
So, it might be the case of checking the current manifestos and BoE interest rates forecast and make your decision (and pray that nothing crazy like COVID and WW3 happens). I would personally ignore any manifesto promises on the supply side (like easy of planning permissions, etc) as it would take a couple of years for the effects to be felt on house prices. If you believe that "stamp duty holiday", "help to buy" and other demand-side support are coming, then I would expect prices to increase in the short term.
House prices (as almost anything) reflect a supply-demand relationship. In the short term, house supply is a good example of “perfect inelastic” supply curve: it can’t react quickly to match changes of demand. So, unless the area you are targeting already has a major development underway, don’t expect new supply to change in that area shortly.
That brings us to demand (the total number of people interested in and capable of buying a particular product or service). In general, demand for homes in the UK is much higher than the supply. As the supply curve is inelastic, any factor that increases demand (like the stamp duty holiday of 2020) will directly hike prices up and any factor that reduces demand (like the recent increase on interest rates) will push prices down. Unless you have information that the area that you are targeting has a particular recent or incoming factor to change demand (like a recent increase in crime or the opening of a new top-grade school), you may expect it to follow the macro trends.
So, it might be the case of checking the current manifestos and BoE interest rates forecast and make your decision (and pray that nothing crazy like COVID and WW3 happens). I would personally ignore any manifesto promises on the supply side (like easy of planning permissions, etc) as it would take a couple of years for the effects to be felt on house prices. If you believe that "stamp duty holiday", "help to buy" and other demand-side support are coming, then I would expect prices to increase in the short term.
Last edited:
Glossopguy
Established Member
Given the housing market's ups and downs, I thought my experience might still be relevant. Prices have remained unpredictable, and many of us are still navigating a tricky market.
My brother sold his house 3 months ago and he can also confirm the market is unpredictable. He sold his old house, opted to sell it for cash thrugh some cheap estate agents that took care of all the process. This decision sped up the process and gave him the flexibility to move quickly once he found the right place.
My brother sold his house 3 months ago and he can also confirm the market is unpredictable. He sold his old house, opted to sell it for cash thrugh some cheap estate agents that took care of all the process. This decision sped up the process and gave him the flexibility to move quickly once he found the right place.
