'Greenies' .. The "Prius Polluter" truths

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I've kept out of this debate because it always seems to sink into a slanging match.

I am not a climate change sceptic. The data is overwhelming. On the most simplistic level, 40 years ago we had lying snow every winter in south Devon, now it's very rare - it's happened just twice in the last 20 years, and then only for couple of days. But to establish averages you need periods when temperatures are above average and equally below average - that's the nature of averages! Climate changes - always has, always will. Human activity may even be a contributing factor, but not, I suspect, the over riding one.

At the end of the Cretaceous period which marked the end of the dinosaurs, 65 million years ago, global temperatures were significantly higher than they are now, and CO2 content of the atmosphere significantly greater. If you think this was all a very long time ago and that things are different now, it is very recent in geological terms. The earth was 98.5% of its current age, or to use the 24 hour clock analogy, the Cretaceous period (and the end of the dinosaurs) came at 20 mins to midnight. So not so very long ago really!

CO2 content of the atomosphere reached an all time low about 1,000 years ago and has risen significantly in the last century. It is now the highest that it has been for 600,000 years. That means that 600,001 years ago CO2 content was higher than it is now. Why? We don't know, but I don't think it was down to early Neanderthal man's campfires. There are natural cycles at work here that we still don't fully understand. There are also plenty of examples of early civilisations being obliterated through climate change - especially drought. This is nothing new.

My personal view is that since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago we have had a period of unprecedented climate stability which may have been a contributary factor in the rise of civilisation and turning us from being nomadic hunter-gatherers to farmers and city dwellers. It may just be that this period of climatic stability is coming to an end and normal service is being resumed - i.e. that of climate change. Discuss!

So do we do nothing? Absolutely not. We have no moral right to consume the planets entire reserves of oil in just a few generations. Our descendants will curse us for our profligacy. Nor can reducing pollution be a "bad thing". In the event that we are responsible for climate change it will be tackling the problem, and at the very worst we will be making the world a cleaner and more pleasant place in which to live, both for ourselves and the millions of species with which we share it..

From a climate change perspective, plastic bags are a red herring, but as a global pollution and litter problem they are a nightmare. They will take centuries to breakdown. I first went trekking in the Moroccan desert in 1972. I returned a couple of years ago, and the biggest difference was that out in the middle of the desert, miles from anywhere, the desert was covered by thousands of black plastic bags blowing in the wind for mile after mile. It was so depressing. Likewise, there are ocean eddies in the Pacific that have gathered millions of plastic bags to form a "plastic bag soup" that is decimating the wildlife. It's so unnecessary and we should be deeply ashamed. A partial answer may simply be to use reusable string bags and to tax non biodegradable plastic wrapping heavily. Maybe even ban the use of non- biodegradable plastic bags. It's in all our power to stop using plastic bags and if there is no demand the supply will dry up. And it will have absolutely no detrimental effect on our standard of living. We just need to stop being so apathetically lazy.

I could go on but I won't. We really do need to clean up our act for environmental reasons - but I remain to be convinced that we can actually do anything to control the climate, regardless of whether we are responsible or not. But we can stop wrecking our only inhabitable planet, for ourselves and for all the creatures with which we have to share it.
 
Absolutely agree Roger, a pretty good synopsis based on known facts.

Roy.
 
Jenx":2681k7u7 said:
These accounts are documented all over the net.
.


Indeed. Well that makes them accurate, peer assessed, written by experts in their field and with a firm scientific basis :^o

Only a complete ignoramus would believe rants posted on the web by unsubstantiated (not on other websites) sources :roll:

As has been written before, look at peer reviewed scientific journals if you are looking for believable and accurate information
 
RogerM":39uanr2w said:
I've kept out of this debate because it always seems to sink into a slanging match.
.

Excellent that you would then feel that this one hasn't, and the discussion is all good humoured and taken as friendly, Roger. :lol:
And neither should a discussion descend into such realms .. we're all relatively sensible people, with the ability to convey our point, view or opinion, without getting hot under the collar.
The points you highlight, would appear to be very soundly based.
I find myself agreeing with what you say there.
:lol: 8)

To reply to Tony ... the irrefutable evidence concerning the Ontario Nickel plant isn't 'peer assessed' then ? :wink:
To hark back to the original subject matter... the evidence that the Prius car is not what it is promoted as being, would appear to me to be completely substantiated, beyond any question.

I grant you however, that on the wider subject concerning the whole issue of the questions around global warming in general... the opinions are 'divided' to say the least.
I would hesitate at calling the works of the learned Professor Stott into question too far though... it would be folly to dismiss those such as he as anything less than credible.
As someone has already mentioned ... ( Argee I think.. ), we aren't going to be afforded the grace of being around long enough as individuals, to fully learn who is right and who is wrong, sadly.
Of course, if I am to say that - then equally, I have to concede that the research of those learned men who's views are in the opposing camp, must be given equal creedence and consideration.
To fail to do so would be wholly incorrect. -- Fair point. :wink:

The crux of the issue is... despite whatever flowery language we wish to use, regarding 'peer-assessed' credentials ( which in reality doesn't count as particularly all that much.. it 'concievably could mean a wider group of equally misguided individuals', couldn't it.. :wink: ) -- the fact of the matter is, we really do not conclusively know anything , that is completely and irrefutably cast into stone on the matter.

What I will add that I find disappointing, is where someone cannot remain emotionally detatched from the discussion - and because viewpoints are conveyed, in a very acceptable fashion, I hasten to add.. that conflict with their own, they 'pick up the ball and run off'.
That, I'm afraid, is poor.

However, the debate could run and run ...
The fact that we're having it at all is healthy, and will, at the very least, serve to perhaps facilitate individuals to do a bit more reading and research, which will hopefully be all to the ultimate good of one and all.

Would you concur ?

8) 8) :lol:
 
Jenx":139uzqu1 said:
The crux of the issue is... despite whatever flowery language we wish to use, regarding 'peer-assessed' credentials ( which in reality doesn't count as particularly all that much.. it 'concievably could mean a wider group of equally misguided individuals', couldn't it.. :wink: )

Indeed it could - as a converation I heard several years ago summed up:-
"But I've got 30 years experience"
"yes,but is that 30 years of doing it right or doing it wrong ?"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Andrew
 
PowerTool":21kud8q5 said:
.......... - as a converation I heard several years ago summed up:-
"But I've got 30 years experience"
"yes,but is that 30 years of doing it right or doing it wrong ?"

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Andrew

... or perhaps he had 1 years experience 30 times!
 
RogerM":1m093b2z said:
40 years ago we had lying snow every winter in south Devon, now it's very rare .

Can I pick up on this .... ?

40 years ago - I lived in Bristol.
Not all that far from devon
From 1965, to 1976 it snowed -- once.
The gentle rolling hills of S.Devon are slightly different of course,
But I will bet in the most recent 11 years, its snowed in Bristol a lot more than once.
In fact, I know for sure it has. :wink:
This would appear to conflict directly with what you say regarding the snow, Rog.
Any thoughts ?

:lol: :lol: :lol:
 
Only a complete ignoramus would believe rants posted on the web by unsubstantiated

Or rants by Al Gore who dropped out of two university courses before majoring in Government studies.

Roy.
 
Jenx wrote:

I would hesitate at calling the works of the learned Professor Stott into question too far though... it would be folly to dismiss those such as he as anything less than credible.

Why? In particular why is he credible? And even if he is credible, why should we believe him? I take it you are using the term credible to mean the same thing as believeable - if not please explain your interpretation of the term.

Being credible is not the same as being right. I sincerely hope you are not calling him credible because he has the title 'Professor' in front of his name or a pretty website? You can range up any number of Professors on both sides of pretty much any scietific debate who will both passionately believe and credibly explain their side of an argument. Doesn't make the right or mean we should believe everything they say. Before Darwin it was credible to beleive the teachings of the church on creationism. Now people tend to believe in evolution. Is it credible to believe in space men? To some yes, who argue passionately about the number of planets, the size of the cosmos and so on. Entirely credible to some. To others not, they argue about a god or the improbability of life evolving twice independently.

I have no idea what Professor Stotts views are, but making a blanket statement that we should not dismiss him because he is credible is just a throwaway comment that is meaningless in the wider context of any scientific debate.

Steve.
 
Jenx":3loxbcvj said:
RogerM":3loxbcvj said:
40 years ago we had lying snow every winter in south Devon, now it's very rare .

Can I pick up on this .... ?

40 years ago - I lived in Bristol.
Not all that far from devon
From 1965, to 1976 it snowed -- once.
The gentle rolling hills of S.Devon are slightly different of course,
But I will bet in the most recent 11 years, its snowed in Bristol a lot more than once.
In fact, I know for sure it has. :wink:
This would appear to conflict directly with what you say regarding the snow, Rog.
Any thoughts ?

:lol: :lol: :lol:
Jenx - this was a purely an admittedly poor anecdotal example to illustrate a point. I spent most of my childhood in South Devon, and returned 20 years ago to the same area. Between 1960 and 1974 it snowed most years, and that's not just 1962/63 when the snow lay for 3 months. Most winteres involved aerial drops of hay to animals on Dartmoor. To the disgust of my children, in the last 20 years, we have had snow laying in our garden only twice, once for 1 day and then for 2. Also heavy frosts were the norm in winter, whereas now they are rare.

We are in danger of confusing weather with climate here. There is more to snow than low temperature. Wind direction, humidity, and strength and position of the jet streams to name just a few. A slight move in a jetstream can shepherd weather systems away from or over us, as was the case last summer. That's why I tend to refer to climate change rather than global warming.
 
Thanks Roger, ... very fair comment in your reply. :wink: :D

StevieB --- why would you wish to single out this one professor as any less credible as an individual source
He, by the nature of being a Professor, is about as 'credible' as credible gets.
By the same token, in absolutely every respect, so are those who would put the case 'for' global warming.

Your thinking would lead the 'layman' ( and I appreciate that as a scientist, you're not a layman yourself, by any stretch of the imagination ) to believe' " That bloke jenx referred to, is some sort of "Mickey Mouse professor", which of course is wholly incorrect.
The man is an Emiritus Professor of Biogeography for heavens sake ! How 'credible' a person would you LIKE me to find for you ? ... If He's not qualified to make an educated assessment or comment, then I am at a loss to understand who you believe would be .

To use a layman's analogy ... would you go to the ironmongers to buy your fish ? no...

I believe that an Emiritus Professor of Biogeography has ample qualifications to be taking the standpoint that he does.

Your counter-argument is a little bizarre... its like arguing the point for the sake of arguing it... as you say, you don't know the man's work...
Why not reasearch it, and then call his credibility into question, once you are armed with some details... wouldn't that be a more sensible route to take ?

:wink: :lol:
 
You can range up any number of Professors on both sides of pretty much any scietific debate who will both passionately believe and credibly explain their side of an argument.

How very true!

Roy.
 
Which is indeed. what I wholeheartedly agree with. :wink:

To call one Prof 'less than credible'... however, is bizarre.

Unless of course, he's on the side that you dont agree with...
then of course, it becomes another 'smokescreen diversionary tactic', but I'm sure Steve's above trying that one on. :wink:


The 'peer assesed' credentials referred to by some above, are 'peer assessed' by the well eductaed, 'qualified' people of the world, I assume ?

people like PROFESSORS and the like ?

Chaps, thou aren't proposing to argue with double-standards here, art thou ?
:wink: 8) :lol:

Philip Stott has all the credentials necessary to argue his corner.
no doubt about it. 8) 8) 8)
 
You don't seem to get my point Jenx and I have no wish to take this into a slanging match. However...

I didn't single him out, you did. You said we shouldn't dismiss the views of such a credible individual. I merely asked why not and stated that credible does not mean the same thing as right.

The man is an Emiritus Professor of Biogeography for heavens sake ! How 'credible' a person would you LIKE me to find for you ?

Why does a title make you credible? I work with a number of professors. Some are extremely dedicated, some I wouldn't trust to boil an egg. Within 3 - 5 years I will be applying for professorships myself but that certainly doesn't mean I know the answers to everything in my field of study, far from it in fact.

Your counter-argument is a little bizarre... its like arguing the point for the sake of arguing it... as you say, you don't know the man's work...
Why not reasearch it, and then call his credibility into question, once you are armed with some details... wouldn't that be a more sensible route to take ?

My counter argument is not a counter argument. It is an example of why credible doesn't mean right. I am not calling his credibility into question, I am asking why you feel we should believe his viewpoint because of his title? I prefer to draw my own conclusions from a personal study of the available evidence from a number of sources. I have not made any claims for or against global warming / climate change, nor do I intend to. I have not said I believe or disbelieve Professor Stott. Again, nor do I intend to. As stated earlier in the thread, this topic tends to instantly polarise opinion with entrenched views on both sides using selective evidence to support their theory. Neither side stand any chance of converting the other and exasperation ensues.

I am commenting in this particular thread because it is veering into science and scientific methodology and is incorrect in some of its understanding of scientific process. I put a link to scientific data earlier in the thread and I then corrected a statement you made concerning scientific evidence and credibility. I am making no claim to be in one camp or the other, nor to believe or disbelieve the evidence cited by one camp or the other. I am merely making the point that credible does not mean right.

Steve.
 
and is incorrect in some of its understanding of scientific process.

A pet hate of mine and so often apparent in the popular press.
One I especially like is references to rising sea levels without any reference to sinking land levels.
Sells papers I imagine.

Roy.
 
StevieB":1xxorrmo said:
You don't seem to get my point Jenx and I have no wish to take this into a slanging match. However...

.

Absolutely no danger of that, Steve ... not in a million years :wink: :lol:

Hey.. before going any further -- all the best wishes in the world to you, when you go for your professorship, that will be a wonderful achievement.. thats brilliant to hear about. 8) 8)

Yes, I take your point, Credible doesn't necessarily mean 'correct' ... on either side of the discussion, thats very true.
8)

What "Credible" does mean... i think ... is having at the very least, some recognised background to a reasonably high standard which would qualify and quantify the individual concerned, as having the competency, not exclusively relating to the subject matter per se, but in respect of a competency of ability to comment, *****, assimilate , conclude and then advise on a specific subject.

If my appraisal of 'credibility' is anything like accurate there, then the credibility of Prof Stott, is absolutely intact.

As it would be for a person in a similar position on the 'other side of the fence' so to speak.

Would you take that as fair ?
:wink: 8) :wink: :lol:
 
Jenx":1qw3qka6 said:
It may be a wild stab in the dark, but I'd guess where it says

"For Gill and other interested parties "

Possibly :wink:

Ah fair enough, I didn't read that sentence, or at least think about it when writing my response. It was just a general observation. I certainly intended no offence to Gill, who seems to be interested in evidence-based views.
 
Jenx":12erifvf said:
StevieB":12erifvf said:
You don't seem to get my point Jenx and I have no wish to take this into a slanging match. However...

.

Absolutely no danger of that, Steve ... not in a million years :wink: :lol:

Hey.. before going any further -- all the best wishes in the world to you, when you go for your professorship, that will be a wonderful achievement.. thats brilliant to hear about. 8) 8)

Yes, I take your point, Credible doesn't necessarily mean 'correct' ... on either side of the discussion, thats very true.
8)

What "Credible" does mean... i think ... is having at the very least, some recognised background to a reasonably high standard which would qualify and quantify the individual concerned, as having the competency, not exclusively relating to the subject matter per se, but in respect of a competency of ability to comment, *****, assimilate , conclude and then advise on a specific subject.

If my appraisal of 'credibility' is anything like accurate there, then the credibility of Prof Stott, is absolutely intact.

As it would be for a person in a similar position on the 'other side of the fence' so to speak.

Would you take that as fair ?
:wink: 8) :wink: :lol:

The point is that the vast preponderance of seemingly-credible-by-their-titles-and-qualifications people are on one side of the line, and a few seemingly-credible-by-their-titles-and-qualifications are the other side of the line.

It is therefore a reasonable working hypothesis that the vast preponderance are right and the others are wrong, irrespective of their respective claims to said titles and qualifications.
 

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