Cop 29

[RobinBHM]

Do you personally remember scientists telling you in the 70s that we were heading for an ice age Phil?

Im just happy if I can remember what I was doing last week

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Did you read the article?

They are saying that the urgency now is so great that COP is too slow

The UN’s climate talks have made significant progress in recent years, despite the fact that unanimous agreement is needed among almost 200 countries to take action.
The Paris climate agreement, signed in 2015, outlines a long-term plan to rein in rising temperatures, as countries strive to keep that rise under 1.5C this century.


They have also agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, and to treble renewable power by 2030.
But while the authors of this letter recognise these achievements,

they feel that the slow-moving COP process is “no longer fit for purpose” in dealing with a fast-moving climate crisis.

I agree with the conclusion - but what replaces it.

For a realistic chance of success, climate change action needs a common agreed strategy of the 8 or 10 largest emitters. Given the disparity in economic circumstances between (say) US, China and India this seems unlikely to be quickly resolved. Years of argument seems probable.

An alternative is for a dominant power to force action through economic or military means. The only two which have the capability are US and China.

Trump will take no such initiative - what future US presidents do is speculation. China may if it sees it as a way to enhance global reach - but likely to be derailed by the US.

Forcing the issue by (say) unilateral destruction of oil and gas facilities to make net zero inevitable could initiate WW3.

Personal opinion - we will continue to do too little too late. The "wake up call" will happen when sea level rise and severe weather causes destruction on a major scale.

Recent floods in Spain just don't count. When London, New York, Calcutta, Shanghai etc are swamped leaving [possibly) millions under water, and mass destruction of infrastructure and heritage, action will be forthcoming.

This will be too late. I suspect sentiment will turn against the mass migration which will follow - not nice but probably realistic. If New York is under water, the US will turn its back on millions suffering from Bangladesh, Lagos etc to help its own.

All somewhat depressing - it would be nice o be proven wrong over the coming decades. But if I were advising my kids and grandchildren - don't buy a house near the coast or at low level. The further you are from the immediate impacts, the less troubled you are likely to be.

I know this runs counter to the well intentioned "it is all one planet" and we should support those less fortunate. It is more a reflection of fundamental human behaviours where loyalty and support diminish with distance.

 

[woodieallen]

Let me press some buttons for you:

https://www.energydashboard.co.uk/historical

Historical screen working OK, live screen seems to be having some problems this second.

Lots more gas than wind. EDIT: Over the last week, that is. If you choose a 90 days or more timescale, there's more wind than gas.

At the moment. First time I've looked at that site in years. The mix is quite different from when I last looked IIRC. We need more nuclear. It's very ughhh, don;t like the waste aspects of it. The cost is just something that needs to be borne. The ridiculous time it takes to get new plants online needs to be improved. Unsure about this small modular nuclear thing that's been bandied about more recently.

You don't need to press any buttons. You're missing the point. Again.

No gas fired generators + No wind + Limited nuclear + No sun (here's a hint for you, the sun doesn't shine during the night) = No electricity.

Simple enough ?

 

[RobinBHM]

You don't need to press any buttons. You're missing the point. Again.

No gas fired generators + No wind + Limited nuclear + No sun (here's a hint for you, the sun doesn't shine during the night) = No electricity.

Simple enough ?

Intermittency of renewables is a challenge but it’s not unsolvable.

Energy storage is the main solution and whilst that’s growing we have energy mix.

The current energy mix is not that secure, our gas storage is limited to a few %, most of our storage is held in Germany, if our pipework connections were damaged we would be in trouble

https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinio...ittency-of-renewable-energy-in-power-markets/

 

[Delaney]

climate is caused by man not the sun

A billionaires ego won’t improve things

The sun won’t shine for ever.

When serious people, intent on saving the human race, get us beyond the great filter (if possible at all), those people will have pictures of space x on the wall.
Not a bunch of left wing malcontents.

 

[Delaney]

Not if you fold time because then you have warp drive !

It’s as if progression to these people is linear and not exponential.

 

[John Brown]

It’s as if progression to these people is linear and not exponential.

Eh? Are you trying to sound clever or something? Please don't confuse us with your fancy words! We're just stupid Britishers!

 

[Delaney]

Eh? Are you trying to sound clever or something? Please don't confuse us with your fancy words! We're just stupid Britishers!

I’m British too!

It means that human growth/evolution (to some extent) does not follow a continuous curve.
Nothing happens then everything happens.

You build a rocket. It takes 100,000 years.
In 1 year you build 100 rockets.

It might take 100,000 years to build a solar sail, or it might happen in 100 years after building the first rocket.

The great filter is a theory regarding the discrepancy between life colonising the galaxy and the lack of evidence another life already has.

It’s kinda depressing because it’s likely true but whatever.