AJB Temple":32ohdoq7 said:
Given that the euro is a financial doomsday machine equivalent to putting a country on the gold standard, that correction might be quite severe.... God I'm depressed (because we're in the eurozone).
Brexit and woodworking
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Given that the euro is a financial doomsday machine equivalent to putting a country on the gold standard, that correction might be quite severe.... God I'm depressed (because we're in the eurozone).
lurker
Le dullard de la commune
DennisCA":becwfzy7 said:
Now thats a known known to anyone with a bit of sense
However to most folks working in finance it appears to be an unknown known
heimlaga
Established Member
I don't get this...... The Euro is bound to crasch one day so a small slump in the value of your Pound means nothing to you in comparition to where we will be in a few years time in Finland if this doomsday machine is allowed to keep going.
May I suggest a couple of possible solutions to your worries:
Reality is that Britain has been largely wooded in the past before most of the woods were cleared for pasture. Since wool prices hit rock bottom in the 80-ies there is really no reason to not revert land back to what once was it's natural state. Sustainably managed woodlands in your tree-friendly climate can produce an impressive amount of good quality hardwood and softwood timber and firewood per hectare while still keeping the natural ballance pretty much intact.
I just don't get it why environmentalists want to keep your heaths in a state of depleted industrial overexploitation which is far from natural.
Reality is that this flood of super cheap woodworking tools for the consumer market hit Europe in the 1980-ies and even more in the 1990-ies. Before that tools costed money. They didn't only cost they also perfermed and lasted accordingly. People got the same work done with a lot fewer tool and often with surprising efficiency. Today people try to pay their way around every difficult stage in the process buying all kinds of Chineese gadgets that usually don't last very long. Intead of spending the same amount of time (time equals money) on learning to do the job the proper way with a basic set of good tools and machines that cost little more than a garage full of gadgets.
That basic set of good quality tools could maybe in part be manufactured with British labour paid British wages from iron ore out of British mines worked by British miners....... instead of imported and paid for with loaned money which is the current fashion all over Europe.
I don't believe in full self suficiency as an ideal for a country. That would kill off trade and industrial and economical progress. I imagine a sort of partial self sufficiensy. A situation where every country produce a part of their needs and import the rest instead of importing everything.
May I suggest a couple of possible solutions to your worries:
Reality is that Britain has been largely wooded in the past before most of the woods were cleared for pasture. Since wool prices hit rock bottom in the 80-ies there is really no reason to not revert land back to what once was it's natural state. Sustainably managed woodlands in your tree-friendly climate can produce an impressive amount of good quality hardwood and softwood timber and firewood per hectare while still keeping the natural ballance pretty much intact.
I just don't get it why environmentalists want to keep your heaths in a state of depleted industrial overexploitation which is far from natural.
Reality is that this flood of super cheap woodworking tools for the consumer market hit Europe in the 1980-ies and even more in the 1990-ies. Before that tools costed money. They didn't only cost they also perfermed and lasted accordingly. People got the same work done with a lot fewer tool and often with surprising efficiency. Today people try to pay their way around every difficult stage in the process buying all kinds of Chineese gadgets that usually don't last very long. Intead of spending the same amount of time (time equals money) on learning to do the job the proper way with a basic set of good tools and machines that cost little more than a garage full of gadgets.
That basic set of good quality tools could maybe in part be manufactured with British labour paid British wages from iron ore out of British mines worked by British miners....... instead of imported and paid for with loaned money which is the current fashion all over Europe.
I don't believe in full self suficiency as an ideal for a country. That would kill off trade and industrial and economical progress. I imagine a sort of partial self sufficiensy. A situation where every country produce a part of their needs and import the rest instead of importing everything.
lurker
Le dullard de la commune
Hopefully this might be a brilliant side effect
We really need to become more self sufficent in many respects
The few remaining British tool manufacturers have an export opportunity to fill their boots whilst the pound is low against the dollar.
We really need to become more self sufficent in many respects
The few remaining British tool manufacturers have an export opportunity to fill their boots whilst the pound is low against the dollar.
AJB Temple
Finely figured
Economics is a science and logically it can factually describe the past and can be interpolated to provide forecasts for the future. Forecasts are always wrong: it is just a matter of degree. I expressed an opinion about the weakening £ against the dollar. My opinion is that the £ will fall quite a lot further. I agree that this is merely an opinion and cannot be a fact, but for anyone who thinks that the £ will materially and sustainably strengthen against the dollar, there has to be a logical rationale.
The UK has become hugely dependent on the service industry sector, with a substantial dependence and focus on financial services. Beating up bankers was a popular past time, but illogical in terms of sustainable wealth generation for the country. In this 30 or 40 year focus on the service sector the UK has accepted diminution of its manufacturing heritage leading to decline in industries such as steel, automotive design and manufacture, shipbuilding, train building etc. We were imprudent (unlike Norway) with our exploitation of natural resources such as North Sea oil, and now we no longer have an abundance of natural resources. Utility companies are largely owned by foreign companies and this creates a dependence and a price exposure.
So my economic question is where do we expect wealth generation and job creation to come from? How do we expect the pension and health needs of an increasingly ageing and long lived population to be financed? This thread is about significant early price rises on tools and stock that woodworkers like us use. But surely the real issue is a much wider one with long tail effects. Clearly there is a political aspect to this (though I have yet to see a reasoned strategy emerge from anyone) but perhaps it is up to businesspeople to drive the real economics.
To survive with prosperity the UK must export more than we import, otherwise we are just exchanging money with each other in a complex game of pass the parcel between ourselves, and also leaking money to other countries as well.
I don't have any grandchildren yet, and I am hoping my offspring can keep it in their trousers for a while longer!
The UK has become hugely dependent on the service industry sector, with a substantial dependence and focus on financial services. Beating up bankers was a popular past time, but illogical in terms of sustainable wealth generation for the country. In this 30 or 40 year focus on the service sector the UK has accepted diminution of its manufacturing heritage leading to decline in industries such as steel, automotive design and manufacture, shipbuilding, train building etc. We were imprudent (unlike Norway) with our exploitation of natural resources such as North Sea oil, and now we no longer have an abundance of natural resources. Utility companies are largely owned by foreign companies and this creates a dependence and a price exposure.
So my economic question is where do we expect wealth generation and job creation to come from? How do we expect the pension and health needs of an increasingly ageing and long lived population to be financed? This thread is about significant early price rises on tools and stock that woodworkers like us use. But surely the real issue is a much wider one with long tail effects. Clearly there is a political aspect to this (though I have yet to see a reasoned strategy emerge from anyone) but perhaps it is up to businesspeople to drive the real economics.
To survive with prosperity the UK must export more than we import, otherwise we are just exchanging money with each other in a complex game of pass the parcel between ourselves, and also leaking money to other countries as well.
I don't have any grandchildren yet, and I am hoping my offspring can keep it in their trousers for a while longer!
lurker
Le dullard de la commune
sorry but its not a science
In real science you can test principals and the outcome will be consistent
Drop an apple and it falls
You can forecast this with complete accuracy
Bankers just move numbers (now electrons) around.
Yes the UK has become dependant on the service industry (eggs in one basket) and thats why we are in a mess.
As our Nordic friends (on this thread) observe if we did not import so much stuff the falling pound would not be a worry.
All you need to know about economics was summed up by Mr Micawber.
When I was younger the only thing that made financial news was the balance of payments
Exports should be booming ......except we have so little to export.
In real science you can test principals and the outcome will be consistent
Drop an apple and it falls
You can forecast this with complete accuracy
Bankers just move numbers (now electrons) around.
Yes the UK has become dependant on the service industry (eggs in one basket) and thats why we are in a mess.
As our Nordic friends (on this thread) observe if we did not import so much stuff the falling pound would not be a worry.
All you need to know about economics was summed up by Mr Micawber.
When I was younger the only thing that made financial news was the balance of payments
Exports should be booming ......except we have so little to export.
One doesn't need to be an export driven economy either, we can't all be Germany. For the global economy to work, some countries have to run surpluses and others deficits.
Anyway you can also have an economy driven by domestic demand instead, this requires domestic industry and services.
Anyway you can also have an economy driven by domestic demand instead, this requires domestic industry and services.
AJB Temple
Finely figured
The historical aspects of economics, being rational explanations for events and interactions that have happened, are clearly a science and have long been accepted as such. Forecasting future events may or may not be.
In the UK, eventually out of teh EU, we logically do not want to be a country running a deficit as that by definition requires a net outflow of cash out of the country. If we run a domestically driven economy driven by domestic demand, as Dennis appears to suggest, this is just transferring money between people. This is how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Good luck with that as an economic model.
The UK is a small island. We originally got rich through trading internationally fuelled by innovation and some would say exploitation. To do this again we need something to trade. And we also need trading partners. If we damage our service industries and reduce our market opportunities with near neighbours, then we have to find other alternatives in both fields. I am wondering currently what they are. I am not saying such opportunities will not emerge, it's just that people are not falling over themselves to reveal them right now. We appear to have a bubble of expectation surrounded by hot air and indignation.
In the UK, eventually out of teh EU, we logically do not want to be a country running a deficit as that by definition requires a net outflow of cash out of the country. If we run a domestically driven economy driven by domestic demand, as Dennis appears to suggest, this is just transferring money between people. This is how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Good luck with that as an economic model.
The UK is a small island. We originally got rich through trading internationally fuelled by innovation and some would say exploitation. To do this again we need something to trade. And we also need trading partners. If we damage our service industries and reduce our market opportunities with near neighbours, then we have to find other alternatives in both fields. I am wondering currently what they are. I am not saying such opportunities will not emerge, it's just that people are not falling over themselves to reveal them right now. We appear to have a bubble of expectation surrounded by hot air and indignation.
heimlaga
Established Member
I don't believe in a domestically driven economy. Essentially that means exploitation of the mayority at the benefit of the few. Feudalism for instance. Or slavery. Like Russia in the old days. Or just a mayority of landless and homeless poor working hard while living on the brink of starvation for the benefit of a small super rich nobility. Not a society worth having.
I don't believe in an economy explotiong other countries. More or less every European country with a sea shore has it's fingers in that jar of jam. Some scooped out a handfull and some just got to lick their fingertips but none of us is innocent. We can all agree that this exploitation practise wasn't fair so let's leave it behind us. Blame nobody just leave it.
I don't believe in a deficit economy where everything is powered by loaned money used to buy imports. The way both Britain and Finland is run at the moment. One day someone will demand his money back.
I don't believe in a nation making a living from sending guest workers abroad. There are for instance societies on the Balkan where most of the inflow of money comes from people working abroad. To do this on a free market you need cheaper labour than anybody else. We cannot work cheaper than an unpaid Bulgarian. Then we are back to slavery.
I don't believe in selling off natural resources to get money. One day everybody will end up as landless tramps on land owned by foregners who only care for making maximum profits.
So.....what's left?
I think the ideal situation would be a sort of equilibrium. Where a large part of production is for domestic nededs and the rest for export to cover the cost of importing stuff that cannot be produced within the country for a reasonable cost.
Where occasional export surpluses and occasional trade deficits take out each others in the long run. Where industries are owned by citizens in the country and no money brought offshore except to pay for imports. Where small industries are promoted. Where land is owned by the people who live on it and work it. Where there is a sound ballance between unions and employers. Where infrastructure is owned by the state or by local cooperations and run for the benefit of local people and local businesses.
A sort of compromise beween commersialism and communism....... with a bit of protectionism with high import duties on some stuff.
I don't believe in an economy explotiong other countries. More or less every European country with a sea shore has it's fingers in that jar of jam. Some scooped out a handfull and some just got to lick their fingertips but none of us is innocent. We can all agree that this exploitation practise wasn't fair so let's leave it behind us. Blame nobody just leave it.
I don't believe in a deficit economy where everything is powered by loaned money used to buy imports. The way both Britain and Finland is run at the moment. One day someone will demand his money back.
I don't believe in a nation making a living from sending guest workers abroad. There are for instance societies on the Balkan where most of the inflow of money comes from people working abroad. To do this on a free market you need cheaper labour than anybody else. We cannot work cheaper than an unpaid Bulgarian. Then we are back to slavery.
I don't believe in selling off natural resources to get money. One day everybody will end up as landless tramps on land owned by foregners who only care for making maximum profits.
So.....what's left?
I think the ideal situation would be a sort of equilibrium. Where a large part of production is for domestic nededs and the rest for export to cover the cost of importing stuff that cannot be produced within the country for a reasonable cost.
Where occasional export surpluses and occasional trade deficits take out each others in the long run. Where industries are owned by citizens in the country and no money brought offshore except to pay for imports. Where small industries are promoted. Where land is owned by the people who live on it and work it. Where there is a sound ballance between unions and employers. Where infrastructure is owned by the state or by local cooperations and run for the benefit of local people and local businesses.
A sort of compromise beween commersialism and communism....... with a bit of protectionism with high import duties on some stuff.
Quote of the day 'Economics is a science and logically'
Nearly spat my tea out laughing so much , an old school friend who has a doctorate on the subject would totally disagree with you a swell .
Economics is theories yes based sometimes on past events but still theories .
Nearly spat my tea out laughing so much , an old school friend who has a doctorate on the subject would totally disagree with you a swell .
Economics is theories yes based sometimes on past events but still theories .
lurker
Le dullard de la commune
I'd accept Economics is a branch of Academic history
A real scientist (for example, a Physicist) would not recognise it as a science as there are no testable principles (hindsight is not a law in the same way as say thermodynamics)
Only an Economist would try to pass themselves off as pursuing scientific endeavour.
A real scientist (for example, a Physicist) would not recognise it as a science as there are no testable principles (hindsight is not a law in the same way as say thermodynamics)
Only an Economist would try to pass themselves off as pursuing scientific endeavour.
lurker
Le dullard de la commune
Anyway back to the thread:
Kit is going to be more expensive to buy here; personally i dont care as there is little I buy new.
Maybe someone can chip in from across the pond; are British tool Manufacturers now looking so attractive you might be planning to buy their wares?
My guess is you will start to pillage e-bay for second hand tools :lol:
Kit is going to be more expensive to buy here; personally i dont care as there is little I buy new.
Maybe someone can chip in from across the pond; are British tool Manufacturers now looking so attractive you might be planning to buy their wares?
My guess is you will start to pillage e-bay for second hand tools :lol:
Random Orbital Bob
Established Member
I wonder how Axy are feeling with their evolution chuck range? Quality, off the chart and in my view significantly superior to the competition. Given the currency markets they may now become a real proposition for a bigger export business.
What a number of posters have said about the lack of balance in our economy is of course true and perhaps one positive opportunity here is for the whole "made in Britain" engineering scene to reopen to some degree. I mean a 30% differential in the margins due to currency fluctuation is a pretty hefty chuck of cash for any business.
If the pound has indeed devalued for good, or go further still then what manufacturing we have left may just become competitive. In terms of quality, it always was, now the price may also be that way (assuming we can access the materials locally).
What a number of posters have said about the lack of balance in our economy is of course true and perhaps one positive opportunity here is for the whole "made in Britain" engineering scene to reopen to some degree. I mean a 30% differential in the margins due to currency fluctuation is a pretty hefty chuck of cash for any business.
If the pound has indeed devalued for good, or go further still then what manufacturing we have left may just become competitive. In terms of quality, it always was, now the price may also be that way (assuming we can access the materials locally).
Wizard9999
Established Member
Think I'll stay silent on the debate about economics, as an economics graduate who can remember very little of it :lol:
However, to return to the original post...
The offers in question were launched five days after the European referendum result, at that point the point was trading at 1.32 against the dollar. On the day the offers were pulled the pound was trading against the dollar at 1.32.
I do not hold the retailer responsible, I am pretty certain these were deals driven by their supplier (either the distributor or manufacturer). Whoever was driving those deals was a prize plonker or the person who cancelled them and put prices up by 9% was a cheeky chancer. Even if there was a promotion planned the drop in the pound was pretty immediate, in fact it was off 7% within a minute of the Sunderland result, long before the final result was known. So they had five days to decide not to go ahead with the deal, the fact they did go ahead and then have to pull it shortly afterwards says to me that somebody somewhere is not managing their business very well.
If a company has any sort of reliance on foreign currency earnings it is unforgivable if they do not hedge that income stream, if I were a shareholder and found out the FD was not doing so I would want his head on a plate at the next EGM. You hedge your revenues, amongst other things, to allow you breathing space when exchange rates move. So to raise prices within a couple of weeks of the vote which caused the fall in the pound (but please do check the fact that it was run up somewhat ahead of the vote) suggests either mismanagement if they were not hedging or opportunistic profiteering if they were.
Terry.
However, to return to the original post...
The offers in question were launched five days after the European referendum result, at that point the point was trading at 1.32 against the dollar. On the day the offers were pulled the pound was trading against the dollar at 1.32.
I do not hold the retailer responsible, I am pretty certain these were deals driven by their supplier (either the distributor or manufacturer). Whoever was driving those deals was a prize plonker or the person who cancelled them and put prices up by 9% was a cheeky chancer. Even if there was a promotion planned the drop in the pound was pretty immediate, in fact it was off 7% within a minute of the Sunderland result, long before the final result was known. So they had five days to decide not to go ahead with the deal, the fact they did go ahead and then have to pull it shortly afterwards says to me that somebody somewhere is not managing their business very well.
If a company has any sort of reliance on foreign currency earnings it is unforgivable if they do not hedge that income stream, if I were a shareholder and found out the FD was not doing so I would want his head on a plate at the next EGM. You hedge your revenues, amongst other things, to allow you breathing space when exchange rates move. So to raise prices within a couple of weeks of the vote which caused the fall in the pound (but please do check the fact that it was run up somewhat ahead of the vote) suggests either mismanagement if they were not hedging or opportunistic profiteering if they were.
Terry.
Wizard9999
Established Member
Random Orbital Bob":mcghnpej said:
Indeed Bob and the fact that since the vote we have moved into a bull market for equities suggests a lot of people out their agree with you!
Terry.
heimlaga":32jy1sie said:
I don't see why this should be so. Before globalization most economies where based a lot more on national trade. France has an economy that's still driven quite a lot by domestic demand, they're hardly feudal or unequal.
AJB Temple
Finely figured
So economics is not a science. I chucked this pebble in the pond for fun, as it is a long running debate. I would point out that there is a Nobel prize for Economic Sciences, but not, for example, one for Engineering. I am a lawyer and mathematician by education, so I know little about economic theory. 
It so happens that I work in the finance industry. :roll: I have seen many professional investors and some hedge funds liquidate stocks very shortly pre EU ref. vote, then trade sterling into dollars via fx deals and futures. We saw very significant volatility and high volumes in the market post vote, and some very active buying again as soon as prices were marked sharply down. This is typical trading during periods of high fx and stock volatility. It is very hard to project anything long term from short term market behaviour and that is where economics and economic theory can help a bit perhaps. :?: The Treasury and The Bank of England have to have some economic theory (and some forecasts) to back fiscal policies.
Referencing a pre globalisation economic era is in my view wishful thinking. Globalisation has happened and will not reverse. You either play the game or you are a spectator. Domestic economies are spectators. Any domestic economy by definition has a pool of people with individual pots of money (or debt) and they buy and sell goods and services from or two each other. This is like shifting money from your left pocket to your right pocket on a grander scale. It does not increase domestic wealth overall, but what it does tend to do (if history is any guide) is transfer money from the many to the few. The few are the better traders or less risk averse, or smarter or luckier...whatever adjective you choose to use.
Hedging in volatile markets is a different ball game. Hedging is costly and far from risk free. And typical corporate FDs no longer have ready access to complex derivative hedging products.
It so happens that I work in the finance industry. :roll: I have seen many professional investors and some hedge funds liquidate stocks very shortly pre EU ref. vote, then trade sterling into dollars via fx deals and futures. We saw very significant volatility and high volumes in the market post vote, and some very active buying again as soon as prices were marked sharply down. This is typical trading during periods of high fx and stock volatility. It is very hard to project anything long term from short term market behaviour and that is where economics and economic theory can help a bit perhaps. :?: The Treasury and The Bank of England have to have some economic theory (and some forecasts) to back fiscal policies.
Referencing a pre globalisation economic era is in my view wishful thinking. Globalisation has happened and will not reverse. You either play the game or you are a spectator. Domestic economies are spectators. Any domestic economy by definition has a pool of people with individual pots of money (or debt) and they buy and sell goods and services from or two each other. This is like shifting money from your left pocket to your right pocket on a grander scale. It does not increase domestic wealth overall, but what it does tend to do (if history is any guide) is transfer money from the many to the few. The few are the better traders or less risk averse, or smarter or luckier...whatever adjective you choose to use.
Hedging in volatile markets is a different ball game. Hedging is costly and far from risk free. And typical corporate FDs no longer have ready access to complex derivative hedging products.
