This is a complicated issue and it's probably not helpful to simplify it to a headline. My own thoughts (for what they're worth):
1. Companies with significant import or export businesses hedge currencies, and the way accounts are kept varies widely (I mean what they do with the dosh rather than how they write it down). They will hold significant foreign currency accounts, and move funds into and out of Sterling when the exchange rate and other issues like taxes and transaction costs and specific deals make it favourable or necessary. They usually take a medium term view, and buy currency ahead of time at the best rate, and so on. Outside the organisation's "treasury" department it's very hard to know what their situation is.
2. Companies that do a lot of business with suppliers are able to exert leverage. Either the supplier drops their price when the Forex rate makes them too expensive, or they don't make the sale. Obviously there is limited leeway, but prices are rarely inflexible. It cuts both ways, obviously.
This entails forecasting. If you look at the Forex graph for Sterling:USD the Pound has been on a slide since the middle of last year. The vote has triggered a jump, true, but it's not that much away from the trend line. So it's reasonable to expect the present rate has been expected at some time soon, if not at this exact moment.
The exchange rate is affected by many things, not least a circular mechanism along the lines of, "I can see he's buying Rupees, so I should too." Other significant things are the relative performance of the two economies in play, the return on their bond issues, etc.
It is likely the euro will tank in the late summer when Greek debt and Grexit (from the euro) come up again. The eurozone is 'twixt the Devil and the deep blue' on this - Greece can't service its present debt, and the 'structural reforms' required by Germany and the ECB have trashed its economy so there's little hope of it being able to do so in the near future. Grexit essentially means default, but staying in probably means default too. Either way investors (and people with large euro holdings) get a crew cut. And so the euro will tank...
China? In general, Chinese manufactured goods have been getting more expensive, as their labour costs have risen dramatically in recent years (they weren't significant before; now they are). Chinese products ARE becoming more expensive. The morticer I bought five years ago from Axminster now costs 28% more (approx.). That's WAY more than inflation increase, and it's common across all importers, so Axminster aren't being greedy.
I have no doubt that Axminster will be committing to volume purchases, and may even use a bonded warehouse somewhere, with a view to calling off stock as & when. I'm sure they operate so as to be as Forex-efficient as possible. It's impossible to say right now if prices will be better or worse in a few months' time, nor which direction of travel they'll have long term. There's no evidence that Forex changes are reflected in their pricing, except for two things: they do build forex risk into their annual "catalogue" pricing (or they did - no paper catalogue now means that may no longer be the case), and they have always responded competitively when forex makes lower prices possible. I've not ever seen them saying that a forex change has forced them to suddenly increase prices, although other suppliers have. But then I don't spend all day every day looking at their prices!
Bear in mind too that they have a vested interest in you getting a decent deal: you do well; you buy more; you might recommend them too. Nobody ever wants to kill off a good customer (the eurozone probably worries about this more than most, presently).
. . .
I often travel to a bottom corner of Somerset. It's about 120 miles round-trip, so I often also need petrol. My wife fills up at Asda during the weekly shop, but it's in the wrong direction. I can divert past it if I want, but that adds about 15 miles, and corresponding lost time. I drive past several filling stations. The value of not diverting usually far outweighs the two or three pence per litre saving.
I mention the fuel because it's similar to making a big tool or equipment purchase - if I could save by waiting, that's got to be by a significant amount, otherwise the value of having the whatever is early, and being able to get value from using it wins. And that does vary. A track saw was a big purchase for me. I bought in January, IIRC, having discovered it was going up in price significantly in the coming year. I probably saved 5-10% overall, but against that the funds became tied up and inflexible, and I had the track saw (and had to justify it to the Domestic Controller!) long before I could put it to productive use. That didn't go down well!
If it's going to make your life better, economically better, I mean, then go for it. I wouldn't borrow to do it, for all sorts of reasons: additional cost, funds tied up, inflexibility (if it's HP you don't own it, etc.). Only you know what's best for your business at the end of the day. But honestly, there are so many other variables in play than just forex, that I wouldn't give it much thought.
For what it's worth, my expectation is that Sterling will rise against the euro long-term and stay there, and/or the euro will finally collapse. Timescale? No idea right now. But it's unstable as things are and there has to be a big 'adjustment' at some point.
Will that really help us? Probably not, actually. A high pound favours importers, and importing is easy compared to exporting. A low pound for a while would be a good thing, as it would help exporters, which in turn means more jobs and apprenticeships in high-tech industries, etc. That's got to be a good thing. We could learn a great deal from the German "Mittelstand" manufacturers, who have prospered despite the high Mark and euro. But their success has a lot more to it than just hedging forex.
And I write that as someone wholly in favour of Brexit, too.
E.
