Social distancing, .. what's that?

[doctor Bob]

I'm now coming to the conclusion that this must be far more serious than I have thought in the past or why else would we destroy the entire economy for decades / generations.
The youth will pay for this ultimately. Yet they are beingb treated like dirt at present.

 

[RobinBHM]

They were turned into covid treatment centres but based on a (totally wrong) projection of deaths.

that is partially true, I do agree.

But I am sure you will appreciate that does not discount my point:

hospital critical cares units were almost overwhelmed, despite the stopping routine clinical work and redeploying staff to deal with covid.

 

[RobinBHM]

I find all these requests for data on flu rather amusing.

The reason for the requests on flu data is because yourself and some others claim that covid is no worse than flu.

So in order to reach a conclusion based on facts and evidence, we need to establish what the facts are.

I think that is reasonable, dont you?

 

[RobinBHM]

We don't have detailed data on Flu because we don't get our knickers in a twist over it. Most years we just tick along with 15 to 20k deaths being treated as perfectly normal

Do you think those 2 sentences are rather contradictory?

if we dont have detailed data on flu, how do we know there are 15 to 20k deaths from flu?

I am wondering if there is some selective use of interpreting the data between flu and covid

the arguments seems to be: "we cant trust the number of deaths from covid"

but we can trust the number of deaths from flu, even though "most people who die from flu-related complications are not tested for flu "

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/faq.htm

 

[RobinBHM]

Unless my numbers are significantly wrong (always a possibility) then the coronavirus looks to be no more agressive than your average influenza when it comes to health workers

I am sorry I dont understand what point you are making?

you seem to be conflating rather a lot of numbers to make your argument.

normal influenza is more fatal at lower age ranges

would you be able to provide the evidence for that?

my research says this: "The majority (72%) of influenza-attributable deaths in hospital occurred in 65+ year olds with co-morbidities"

how many NHS staff are older than 65?

 

[RobinBHM]

The more I look into this, the more evident it becomes that, by any metric you care to use, our novel coronavirus is not worth the damage being done in order to fight it. And more to the point, it really isn't any more deadly than a bad influenza outbreak.

Every argument that claims covid is no worse than flu, always fall down because it always makes the same mistake

metric used for covid are based on outcomes despite the huge intervention of governments

Please please please can you all stop repeating this same error in your arguments.

 

[Selwyn]

Selly:
1. "It's a seasonal coronavirus" No. Absolutely not. Equating C-19 with 'colds' is not valid. And, a great deal about it is as yet 'unquantifiable', as opposed to "unknown", so in some respects, it IS a mystery, hence my "ethnicity" and "blood" references above.
2. "Does that you mean you prefer the coming suicides...you must do" Get real. Who in their right mind would wish death on anyone? I find your interpretation of what I posted extremely offensive, apart from the fact is is so convoluted a misinterpretation as to be staggering.

I am out on this discussion. I find those who will not listen, but impose their own biases and agendas basically unhelpful and probably employing inflaming opinion to assuage their egos.
Hard, straightforward facts and analyses seem to be in short supply here.

Sam

Cheerio then.

As I have consistently said I'm looking at the data and the data alone, I don't have an agenda beyond is the reaction consistent with the data. I am not equating it with a "cold" but of the family of coronavirus' one of which is the common cold (and can kill by the way). We have the data showing Covid-19 is seasonal enough like all the other Coronavirus' before it. We know vitamin D is important for example.

You have implied I want to have a pint over keeping people alive so I have shot it straight back at you and you don't like it. So quit it.

 

[Noel]

I've no problem with discussions on most issues but with that comes a degree of responsibility, especially with regards to health and wellbeing. And furthermore a good measure of respect toward other members as opposed to insults and the usual passive/aggressive commentary and innuendo.
If the thread continues on the course it's currently heading it'll be early closing time.

So please bear the above in mind.

Just in case it was missed.

 

[Selwyn]

The reason for the requests on flu data is because yourself and some others claim that covid is no worse than flu.

So in order to reach a conclusion based on facts and evidence, we need to establish what the facts are.

I think that is reasonable, dont you?

Covid seems to be a bit worse than flu. But not massively so. Remember on some of these deaths (probably a lot of them for people over 70 plus) they would have been able to find both flu virus and covid virus in the bodies yet the death is recorded as covid death. Which is true enough but only part of the picture.

 

[FatmanG]

The issues Robin that every day Joe blogs are concerned about are the following?
1, is this the killer disease that the media,government, public health, World health has portrayed?
2, has the response been consistent, measured and proportionate?
3 why are the measures becoming more draconian as its clear the measures make no sense are no longer based on science and more and conflict is happening between scientists?
4, why are you censored and shut down by the media for questioning the response?

Politely I say to you nothing not a single word or piece of data, science, has convinced me that this is a killer of like we've never seen nor is the damage the response has inflicted on every single part of our lives has been proportionate.

 

[RobinBHM]

We have the data showing Covid-19 is seasonal enough

I understand you are "all about the data", so I hope you don't mind me asking if you could provide some evidence.

I have been unable to find such evidence beyond small studies which indicate small percentage changes.

 

[RobinBHM]

Covid seems to be a bit worse than flu. But not massively so.

I am sorry to be pedantic but what evidence are you using to reach that conclusion?

All the data that has been collected, is from this year, where every country in the world has take huge interventions to lower the spread of the virus.

I don't understand how you are comparing it to flu, where zero social distancing or infection control measures have been put in place.

I am sure you would agree, you are comparing apples with pears.


If Covid is not massively worse than flu, please could explain how:

The hospitals in Spain, Italy and America have been overwhelmed by Covid
6000 healthcare workers have died from Covid globally.
Significant numbers of people are experiencing long terms symptoms from covid

If Covid is "not massively worse than Covid" It would be reasonable to expect similar Problems in the years where there have been severe flu outbreaks. Please could you explain why that doesn't appear to be the case

 

[Selwyn]

I understand you are "all about the data", so I hope you don't mind me asking if you could provide some evidence.

I have been unable to find such evidence beyond small studies which indicate small percentage changes.

Coronavirus seasonality: Is the spread likely to vary?. Also look at the Gompertz curve of it.

We have seen massive seasonal fluctuations even in the UK. It was non existent in the summer. Even amongst those areas where they kept working and social contact.

 

[Selwyn]

I am sorry to be pedantic but what evidence are you using to reach that conclusion?

All the data that has been collected, is from this year, where every country in the world has take huge interventions to lower the spread of the virus.

I don't understand how you are comparing it to flu, where zero social distancing or infection control measures have been put in place.

I am sure you would agree, you are comparing apples with pears.


If Covid is not massively worse than flu, please could explain how:

The hospitals in Spain, Italy and America have been overwhelmed by Covid
6000 healthcare workers have died from Covid globally.
Significant numbers of people are experiencing long terms symptoms from covid

If Covid is "not massively worse than Covid" It would be reasonable to expect similar Problems in the years where there have been severe flu outbreaks. Please could you explain why that doesn't appear to be the case

I'm not comparing it to flu. They are two different types of disease however with many similarities. Some people could die of flu over covid or covid over flu.

Influenza has been endemic for some time and Covid 19 is now endemic. It was circulating in the UK since November. In fact it was on the decline before the lockdown came in. Look at the dates of lockdown vs deaths. But it is no surprise a novel virus is a little bit more contagious. A lot of covid death certificates had influenza too. In fact Influenza and pneumonia was mentioned on more death certificates than COVID-19, however COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death in over three times as many deaths between January and August 2020. So there is an element of overlapping the death data.

Some years we have huge flu deaths.

Not all hospitals were overwhelmed at all. Some hot spots were. Bergamo was one, New York another. We weren't really overwhelmed in the UK.

I've told you already. Long Covid isn't a defined llness. Its people who are quite naturally struggling to get over a serious infection which is not unreasonable.

Someone has already informed you about the healthcare workers stats - I'm not repeating it, read it.

Anyway Robin you tell me how you think we should control a virus?

 

[Rorschach]

Just in case it was missed.

Given the way people are behaving here at the moment (very well I think) it would be very unwise to close this thread. You will do more harm than good. Remove posts as needed but don't close the thread, you will be overstepping the mark.

 

[RobinBHM]

. I am not equating it with a "cold" but of the family of coronavirus' one of which is the common cold

For the purpose of clarification, there are 7 coronavirus that affect humans

HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-NL63, HCoV-HKU1, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2

The first 4 present themselves as the common cold.

Although it seems that common cold symptoms maybe caused by coronavirus, rhinovirus or RSV. There are upto 200 different viruses that cause the common cold. Upto 50% are rhinovirus.

influenza viruses are negative sense RNA viruses that make up four of the seven genera of the family Orthomyxoviridae: Influenzavirus A. Influenzavirus B. Influenzavirus C.

Type B is most common, it only uses humans as the host. It doesn't cause pandemics

Type A is humans, birds and swine. Spanish flu was type A

 

[SammyQ]

It was non existent in the summer. Even amongst those areas where they kept working and social contact.

• 29th June: 19 deaths
• 22nd June: 20 deaths
• 15th June: 28 deaths
• 8th June: 59 deaths
• 1st June: 108 deaths
• 25th May: 59 deaths*
• 18th May: 122 deaths
• 11th May: 209 deaths
• 4th May: 204 deaths
• 27th of April: 329 deaths
• 20th April: 429 deaths
• 13th April: 667 deaths

Q.E.D.

 

[RobinBHM]

Just in case it was missed.

I do hope the thread can be kept open, I appreciate threads which are emotive can quickly lead to abusive posts, lets hope that doesnt happen (continue?)

 

[Terry - Somerset]

In fact it was on the decline before the lockdown came in. Look at the dates of lockdown vs deaths.

This is not true.

Lockdown came on 23rd March. At that time there were 661 daily new cases and 38 deaths based on a 7 day rolling average to avoid weekend impacts).

Cases peaked on 14th April at 4999, 22 days later. They did not decline below 4000 until 13th May.

Deaths also peaked on 14th April at 943 and then started to decline. By 13th May they were 401.

Deaths increased after lockdown 25 fold. This suggests a doubling every 4 days.

Cases recorded after lockdown increased 8 fold.

It is unlikely that cases and deaths would peak at the same time - a lag would be expected. However I suspect many cases were only tested on emergency hospital admission.

Cases may therefore be materially understated as capacity which was ~10k at lockdown increased to only 20k at "peak cases".

 

[Rorschach]

This is not true.

Sorry Terry you post a lot of sense mostly but you are completely wrong here. The peak of deaths was far too soon after lockdown started for lockdown to have been the cause of the decline. If you look at the curve of the graph it was already plateauing before lockdown started. Lockdown increased the speed of the decline but it was not the cause of it.
You only have to look at countries that didn't have a strict lockdown such as Sweden to see the same curve dropping off at almost the exact same moment, the different is because they didn't have a strict lockdown their decline was slower than ours.