President Elect's 'top team'

[Jake]

If there is a deal done, Putin will just use it to re-arm. Just as he did before.

There is very much a prospect of Ukraine defeating Russia, which has nearly exhausted its cold war stockpiles, can't produce new stuff in any volume, is losing horrific numbers of people to the meat cubes, and whose economy is really beginning to fail rapidly now.

 

[Delaney]

Are you actually in favour of the USA providing the full on capabilities of long range ballistic missiles provided to Ukraine to use to provoke a reaction from Putin/Russia enough to see if he/they are bluffing or not?
This isn't a game of poker or blink, it's the future of mankind which be affected if things go wrong. If Putin is as bad as many people claim he is, then I'd doubt he'd think twice if his country was attacked with weapons provided by the West.

Better to negotiate a settlement of hostilities rather than force one through military might as it will always be seen as an unresolved issue and no doubt erupt again further down the line.

Yes well spotted.

Putin is both the most evil man to have ever existed, in charge of one of the worlds largest nuclear arsenals; including hypersonic missles that penetrate the ‘Iron Dome’ (according to ‘sources’).

And simultaneously, someone you can attack with little to no repercussions.

Even though, he’s ‘checks notes’… someone who is brutalising and invading a European country, murdering their people and stealing their land.

The people promoting this escalation are utterly unaccountable and irresponsible, even by their own standards, based on what they themselves think of Putin.

 

[Delaney]

The consensus on this forum seems to be that Biden's decision to allow Ukraine to use longer range weapons is a deliberate attempt to disrupt whatever strategy Trump wants to put in place once he has power. I don't agree.

There is another equally plausible explanation - he is doing it to support Trumps initiatives.

To bring conflict to a swift end requires:

• Putin to believe that he has won - winning permanent border changes enlarging Russian territory. It is a victory justifying the losses and sacrifices sustained by the Russian people.
• Zelensky needs to bring the conflict to a close with dignity. There is zero chance of Ukraine defeating of Russia. Conflict is only sustained through Western supplies of military hardware, without which rapid defeat by a numerically superior enemy would quickly follow.

The Trump strategy - force agreement to a ceasefire and revised borders:

• Putin carrot - gets enlarged territory - borders - Crimea is already a de facto done deal + Eastern Ukraine largely held by Russia now
• Putin stick - all limits removed from US sourced weapons + increased supply of munitions
• Zelensky carrot - probable membership (there will be some hurdles) of NATO and/or EU - future security for the core of Ukraine
• Zelensky stick - no more munitions - defeat looms large

Bidens initial act is just a warning to Putin - I suspect they have much more potent weapons in their arsenal and the capacity to reach Moscow if wanted.

If the Trump initiative is success he can claim to have laid the groundwork, if Trump fails he can at least claim they tried. He may even have agreed their use with Trump, or at the very least denied Trump the egotistical kudos of claiming "I did it, Biden was a hopeless POTUS

Interesting thoughts but I don’t see enough incentive for Putin to agree, given that some of the red lines, will be a huge buffer zone, likely made up of both territories, some gained and some western Ukrainian and a promise (in writing this time) that Ukraine will be a neutral country.
In Return Russi does not continue with a frozen conflict strategy; which coukd stop Ukraine from joining Nato anyway.

America took their shot and missed. It seems Russians have been quite adept at foiling US foreign ventures of recent. Syria being the other example.’
I am of course on team USA but they can also be open to criticism.

 

[Jake]

Putin is both the most evil man to have ever existed, in charge of one of the worlds largest nuclear arsenals; including hypersonic missles that penetrate the ‘Iron Dome’ (according to ‘sources’).

And simultaneously, someone you can attack with little to no repercussions.

Allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with weapons we have provided is not going to prompt a nuclear war, that's daft. Nuclear war is un-survivable for Putin, and while he's evil he hasn't got a death-wish.

 

[RobinBHM]

Yes well spotted.

Putin is both the most evil man to have ever existed, in charge of one of the worlds largest nuclear arsenals; including hypersonic missles that penetrate the ‘Iron Dome’ (according to ‘sources’).

And simultaneously, someone you can attack with little to no repercussions.

Even though, he’s ‘checks notes’… someone who is brutalising and invading a European country, murdering their people and stealing their land.

The people promoting this escalation are utterly unaccountable and irresponsible, even by their own standards, based on what they themselves think of Putin.

False argument

Negotiating a deal with Putin won’t end the conflict….it will just pause it while he restocks his military.

The only people escalating the conflict are Trump supporters.

 

[RobinBHM]

Allowing Ukraine to attack Russia with weapons we have provided is not going to prompt a nuclear war, that's daft. Nuclear war is un-survivable for Putin, and while he's evil he hasn't got a death-wish.

It’s usual false narrative by MAGAs who have turned into Russian apologists

 

[RobinBHM]

What borders on stupidity…….Mexico and Canada

 

[Chris152]

Yes well spotted.

Putin is both the most evil man to have ever existed, in charge of one of the worlds largest nuclear arsenals; including hypersonic missles that penetrate the ‘Iron Dome’ (according to ‘sources’).

And simultaneously, someone you can attack with little to no repercussions.

The thing is, nobody on here has written those things, you're making stuff up again.

Putin is clearly a hideous person in that he's happy enough to sacrifice so many thousands of lives for his personal, nationalistic vanity (or whatever reason you want to make up) - that kind of thing has been written, but not the stuff about being the 'most evil man to have existed'. And nobody has written that the potential repercussions are not incredibly serious. But as a result of Putin's decision to invade a neighbouring, sovereign nation, we're all in a precarious position.

The question is: appeasement, and whatever tf that leads to; or continued resistance.

Nobody imagines there's an easy solution, except the foolish.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

At least I'm not an extremist! The cognitive dissonance is all yours. As I've said already, your bias doesn't allow you to see that you're what many would consider an extremist. I have dislikes I admit but I'm not remotely obsessed like yourself and much of the division in this country is propagated by people with your opinions and outlook.
Just because someone has an opinion which conflicts with yours then it's hate in your eyes...absolute nonsense.

I'm one of those people who looks closely to home to see what can be done to improve things here, I just don't spend my time obsessing about the people of America and who they voted for. It's unhealthy and unhelpful too and people like yourself will certainly not improve the UK's relations with the American nation going forward while you're shouting at them, telling them they're wrong.
It would benefit this country enormously if people like yourself were silent rather that commenting derogatively on such as a America. You don't speak for me or the majority and we don't need people with your mindset souring relations further after stupid boys Starmer & Lammy already did.

Most of the hate in America is actually driven by people with your mindset, the people who voted for Trump just want to get on with their lives. If their choices of government officers don't match yours, tough! It's their country not yours.

Forgive me for pointing out that I don't really believe the first bold bit to be true. This is why: in another thread, you are quite clear and adamant in saying that the UK should do nothing about going carbon neutral. That's the exact opposite of "looking closely at home to see what can be done to improve things". I'm paraphrasing that you think that China should be the one to sort themselves out and not UK - so on the second bold point in the post above, there is a huge amount of hypocrisy involved there too... in your own words, above, it is unhealthy and unhelpful for you to insist that China tackles CO2 output unilaterally.

Which one is it?

 

[RobinBHM]

Trump is not the first time America came up with the great idea of raising tariffs.

Quite a few years ago the Hawley Smoot tariff act had the great idea of raising tariffs, I wonder if Trump will manage to achieve even better results.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Interesting thoughts but I don’t see enough incentive for Putin to agree, given that some of the red lines, will be a huge buffer zone, likely made up of both territories, some gained and some western Ukrainian and a promise (in writing this time) that Ukraine will be a neutral country.
In Return Russi does not continue with a frozen conflict strategy; which coukd stop Ukraine from joining Nato anyway.

America took their shot and missed. It seems Russians have been quite adept at foiling US foreign ventures of recent. Syria being the other example.’
I am of course on team USA but they can also be open to criticism.

Incentives for Putin:

• possibility of conflict without a clear end - like 12 years in Afghanistan without success
• cost and casualties - criticism of his leadership may grow - public or inside Kremlin
• settlement could be sold as a victory - in contrast to the potential negatives
• if the west allows Ukraine much more flexibility to use advanced weapon the conflict could be very visible in Moscow, Leningrad and other large cities

No guarantees - but if he says no to any proposal he is back to the status quo - a bitter fight with little evidence of progress on either side.

If successful Zelensky quickly invites NATO forces for exercises on Ukrainian territory to seal the deal.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

Biden is a weasel, I wouldn't put anything past that man.
Clearly it's all designed to destabilise Trump when he takes office but that is typical of the Democrats. They lost the election so they will sabotage the next government when it takes office, just they did the last time.
These are dangerous slimy people intent on bringing down Trump even if it brings the USA & NATO into direct conflict with Russia. They're certainly not patriots that's for sure and it's no wonder Trump won with a landslide margin.

Oh wow - what a shallow and "interesting" view which goes straight to show how your mind works, not Biden's or anyone else's.

For anyone else watching this unfold - it is "highly likely" (to use a proper military intelligence yard-stick descriptor) that the permission for Ukraine to use long range weapons to target Russian territory has been in the decision cycle and being "war-gamed" for many months, now, and was "highly likely" to have been decided a few days or even weeks ago.

It is also "highly likely" (on the upper bracket of this intelligence yardstick) that the kinetic strikes by Putin on the Ukraine critical national infrastructure over the weekend shows us that the Russian intelligence machine knew that the decision would be made (or had already been made!) to give that permission, and that the strikes were "pre-emptive" and concentrated, knowing that the permission was imminent/or already granted but needed time to filter through the military permission and order levels. These kinds of things need significant amount of audit and control, since the risks involved are, can we say, "elevated".

I have absolute faith that the decision to give permission is in no way connected to the election or to Trump. These decisions cannot be achieved overnight or in short order, because the repercussions need to be gamed and scrutinised in the finest detail, and that takes a fair amount of time.

For anyone simply "guessing" that the global-reaching permissions have anything at all to do with US domestic situation - well, it is simply that - a guess. And a dumba-ss guess, at that. "Highly likely", if not an actual "Certainty" that the guess is motivated by personal bias rather than reality.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

Trump is not the first time America came up with the great idea of raising tariffs.

Quite a few years ago the Hawley Smoot tariff act had the great idea of raising tariffs, I wonder if Trump will manage to achieve even better results.

Was that the attempt to improve the US Economy during The Great Depression and which actually made it worse?

 

[Ed Weber]

I think you need a comma somewhere in the middle of that sentence

Needs a comma and a correction
Highest popular vote of a republican, not "more than any other president in history"

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

The bottom line is that it's people with a flawed outlook who can't see the clear and potential dangers of Biden's actions.
Irrespective of one's perspective of Putin and what has happened in Ukraine so far, he and the Russian nation have an arsenal of nuclear weapons capable of wiping out most of the developed world and yet people like Biden and his supporters want to provoke the situation even further by the use of long range weapons which could herald in WW3!
You couldn't make it up given the hysteria there is over the possibility of Iran accomplishing the production of nuclear weapons in the next few years!

Talk about can't see the wood for the trees!

Threats will not work with Putin or Russia. The EU has been interfering and provoking Russia since the breakup of the Soviet Union, relying upon big brother USA to stand behind them but that could all change and then what does Europe do without the USA to back it?
Strongarm tactics will not settle this problem in any case...like most conflicts the peace is settled around the negotiating table and not with weapons that could wipe out the entire human race.

The fear over global warming is nothing compared to the risks of nuclear war.

I just wish that the people who are employed as military strategists, using up-to-the minute information from the military intelligence machine, had just a fraction of your overwhelming knowledge and understanding of geo-politics...

 

[sploo]

Meanwhile, back on topic, it looks as though Hegseth will fit in well; what with his boss, and the proposed Attorney General, being (convicted, or alleged) sex offenders:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3vl63pzpwzo

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

Haven't caught up with the latest but sincerely hope Biden will lift all restrictions.
I have no doubt the Ukrainians will have prepared lists of likely targets to cut off supplies to Russian forces. If they can drastically reduce their supplies of ammunition, fuel and so forth then they may have little option but to withdraw.

The way this has been working is thusly:

Ukraine knows what weapons are being readied by Putin - the number of jets being started up - and the number of weapons on each - and they also know the likely targets of those Russian bombs.
Until now, Ukraine has been basically restricted to knowing that they are imminently under attack - but have had to wait until those aircraft are across the border and close to weapon release point before they could target them, with weaponry that is not hugely effective at stopping the attack or stopping the bombs dropping.

The change:

With permission to strike Russian bases inside Russia, those aircraft could be targeted, on the ground, at the point of being readied with bombs, or at least the airfield or runway being targeted to prevent the attack from being launched in the first place - and this can all be "intelligence led" such that the missiles are not an "offensive" measure or "escalatory" in nature (can self defence even be labelled "escalatory"?), but in such a way as they can more appropriately described as a "self defence" measure.

I'm of the very strong opinion that this is a discussion (perhaps legal debate) that has been going on in the background for a long time now - and that the recent permission to allow target inside Russia is not a knee-jerk reaction to anything, but something that has been scrutinised for a significant length of time, and scrutinised for as many reactionary Russian decisions and reactions as is possible to scrutinise for...

 

[Blackswanwood]

Maybe the end game is to turn Ukraine into no mans land but again what difference does it make.

It makes quite a bit of difference if we start allowing Putin to ignore the sovereignty of his neighbours.

Where would you draw the line?

 

[Delaney]

I rather suspect "most Ukrainians" would find your post rather distasteful.

It's nothing to do with "beliefs"; it's about trying to stop a violent invader. It's hardly like Putin is planning on exporting paradise to the Ukraine (given the state of Russia these days) so I can absolutely understand Ukrainians wanting to fight for their nation. I've no doubt they'd prefer peace, but peace on your knees isn't very inviting.

There’s no point in reasoning with you.
You belive 100% that this is all Putins fault.
You also believe that most Ukrainians would find my post distasteful, without any evidence at all and which ones, the ones in the west or ones in the east?

Ukraine is only Ukraine when it or they align with you.
That’s not how realty works

 

[Delaney]

Incentives for Putin:

• possibility of conflict without a clear end - like 12 years in Afghanistan without success
• cost and casualties - criticism of his leadership may grow - public or inside Kremlin
• settlement could be sold as a victory - in contrast to the potential negatives
• if the west allows Ukraine much more flexibility to use advanced weapon the conflict could be very visible in Moscow, Leningrad and other large cities

No guarantees - but if he says no to any proposal he is back to the status quo - a bitter fight with little evidence of progress on either side.

If successful Zelensky quickly invites NATO forces for exercises on Ukrainian territory to seal the deal.

I would imagine fighting a frozen conflict would be right up Putins street.
The ex KGB man that he is.

They have the resources and some EU countries are quietly but desperately hoping to rescue their industry by re attaching themselves to the Russian pipelines. The ones left working.

Brics is also a factor here. Let’s be honest, western sanctions have been a disaster.