One-*** efficacy questions

[alanpo68]

Ok, but once we had reached a peak and number were going down, why were we so slow to release the lockdown?

Because there were still huge numbers of people who were infected and would have passed the virus on. The irony is that when we relaxed the rules for Xmas and ended up with cases spiking.

 

[D_W]

Because there were still huge numbers of people who were infected and would have passed the virus on. The irony is that when we relaxed the rules for Xmas and ended up with cases spiking.

Since we had a double whammy of holidays a month apart (thanksgiving and Christmas), they absolutely exploded here. A shame as the vaccine was so close to being available.

We are very close to being absolutely open now, but the covid relief bill with steroid-pumped unemployment benefits has left a lot of rank and file employers unable to find workers. A large % of those folks will not come off of the sidelines until they're absolutely forced.

Some of the rest of us have been working the entire time, and listening to folks boast that they're making as much or more after taxes (and taking under the table work) than they were when they were "working".

 

[Selwyn]

You are right.

The countries which were slow to lockdown, had weak controls ended up with the highest death rates and the worst economic damage.

"Contrary to the idea of a trade-off, we see that countries which suffered the most severe economic downturns – like Peru, Spain and the UK – are generally among the countries with the highest COVID-19 death rate"
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy
Oh dear, that's your argument shot down in flames

Nope

https://gript.ie/decision-to-lockdo...ss-of-years-of-life-says-economics-professor/

 

[Selwyn]

No, I think lockdowns are probably the right thing to do on account of what seems to be the overwhelming consensus among the world's leading authorities on the matter. What I most certainly wouldn't do in the midst of a pandemic is repeatedly cite highly questionable accounts, based on no greater knowledge than bits and bobs I've found on the net, as if I were in a position to know they were true. That'd be deeply foolish, given the potential consequences. It'd be a complete failure to recognise the limits of my knowledge and understanding, and a complete failure to recognise and act according to my responsibilities to others. That'd certainly be a terribly silly game to play.

The Imperial Modelling was demonstrably wrong. We locked down on the basis of that junk prediction which has not come true anywhere in the world whether they locked down or not.

Keep believing that it if you want to but there is not a consensus amongst scientists or virologists. Very few deny there is a nasty virus doing the rounds however, it has been vastly vastly overexaggerated and you have been daft enough to fall for it.

 

[Selwyn]

Because there were still huge numbers of people who were infected and would have passed the virus on. The irony is that when we relaxed the rules for Xmas and ended up with cases spiking.

Well I'll have a sporting bet with you that cases are going to rise next autumn/ winter again. Viral triggering for what will be the third season in the UK of a novel covid virus which is now endemic. Vaccines will have helped and lets hope there are no long term issues from them (there could be) but there will be covid deaths again

 

[RobinBHM]

Combination of the two. If you go to very rural areas, you'll find people who don't trust the medical establishment as much (not to the point that they won't go to the dr., but if they have already have covid, they won't get vaccinated, and some who are young and healthy won't either. And then a small minority of people who should have more sense won't).

I think county health care and local health plans generally have an initiative to get as many vaccinated as possible and they'll come up with creative ideas (not sure what the fed. reimbursement is for giving vaccines, as there may also be profit motive).

Generally here, though, most are going to get the vaccine - expectation from the outset has been 70% but I think after seeing a 90%+ uptake among front line workers and nursing home residents, it's expected to end up at 80%+, and some of the remaining cohort will have had covid, so some level of immunity will be closer to 90% and that should be enough to shove covid off into the penalty box.

I may come off as a contrary crank, but it seemed like a clear case to me and I got pfizerized as soon as it was available (back in feb and early march? two shots were only 3 weeks apart that I recall). My dad would be in the category of folks who voted for trump and had bumper stickers with trump stuff (and my mother has a car in the same driveway next to it with hillary and biden stuff all over it - terrible . both of them!), but he also got vaccinated right away, as did my mother. I think that's more typical here - that even folks politically opposed to it recognize how effective it is and bite their tongue.

That's really interesting, many thanks for your insight.

 

[RobinBHM]

virus which is now endemic

You've been claiming for months and months Covid is endemic in UK.

But you haven't once backed it up with any evidence......for a simple reason: it's not true.

Vaccination rollout may see Covid becoming endemic in the UK, but there is still a Covid pandemic.

 

[Selwyn]

You've been claiming for months and months Covid is endemic in UK.

But you haven't once backed it up with any evidence......for a simple reason: it's not true.

Vaccination rollout may see Covid becoming endemic in the UK, but there is still a Covid pandemic.

It has been endemic for months, the very fact it curled over in April 20 and then came back in another viral season is evidence of this. It will come back in the next viral season too albeit probably lower.

Now go away and keep believing to yourself you are at huge risk and stay inside

 

[Petehpkns]

It has been endemic for months, the very fact it curled over in April 20 and then came back in another viral season is evidence of this. It will come back in the next viral season too albeit probably lower.

Now go away and keep believing to yourself you are at huge risk and stay inside

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

 

[Chris152]

it has been vastly vastly overexaggerated and you have been daft enough to fall for it.

I expect that's right. Good job we've got really smart people like you to skip around the net to establish the truth for us.
'Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge'.

 

[D_W]

That's really interesting, many thanks for your insight.

(news here is very bad for the "gawly-ghee" stuff. Last night, they were showing local people wearing masks even though the mandate was over, and interviewed two people who both said they were wearing masks to make other people comfortable - they picked the heaviest local dialects they could find and two people who had the mask hanging below their nose and halfway down over their mouths boasting of their accommodation of others. I can't imagine that they couldn't ask people who had their masks on properly, but as time goes on, they are doing the local TV version of clickbait, which is to find something irritating if possible to keep your attention).

If you consider what they could do, which is to research the midwest and provide actual statistics, it would be illuminating, but not very interesting. Showing stories of freebies and making it out like you have to trick people into getting vaccinated is more popular, though even in the most MAGA areas, it won't be the majority.).

it's uncommon for me to watch local news as it's generally not up to the definition (information you didn't know before, vs. regurgitation or commentary or reaction).

 

[Jonm]

It has been endemic for months, the very fact it curled over in April 20 and then came back in another viral season is evidence of this. It will come back in the next viral season too albeit probably lower.

I responded to you and this “viral season“ idea in my post number 1022, showing the “seasons” in South Africa as 6 months apart (winter and summer). I also responded to you in post 1029 showing Covid cases in Brazil which is one long bumpy ride upwards for over one year. Both posts contain graphs showing these features. I note you have not responded to the two posts.

 

[RobinBHM]

Nope

https://gript.ie/decision-to-lockdo...ss-of-years-of-life-says-economics-professor/

That's very interesting.....it shows where you get most of your "ideas" from.

Nowhere does it actually do any cost analysis other than this (which is a joke):


"That means that the average Canadian has lost two months of normal life. The population of Canada is about 37.7 million people, which means that 6.3 million years of life have been lost due to lockdown. "

So it's headline figures are based on a calculation that people "lost" 2 months of their lives....so it puts a cost to that 2 months, oh look lockdowns cost more.

For anybody interested in reading the full paper, it's here:
http://www.sfu.ca/~allen/LockdownReport.pdf
I should warn though it makes painful reading, it's unscientific, it ignores many factors and is wholly biased.
If and it's not peer reviewed nor does it seem to be published anywhere

 

[RobinBHM]

It has been endemic for months

I asked for evidence....where is it?

Now please go away and provide some or edit your posts to say "in my opinion, Covid is now endemic"

 

[Rorschach]

I asked for evidence....where is it?

Now please go away and provide some or edit your posts to say "in my opinion, Covid is now endemic"

Pot calling kettle

 

[Selwyn]

I responded to you and this “viral season“ idea in my post number 1022, showing the “seasons” in South Africa as 6 months apart (winter and summer). I also responded to you in post 1029 showing Covid cases in Brazil which is one long bumpy ride upwards for over one year. Both posts contain graphs showing these features. I note you have not responded to the two posts.

There is no reason to suppose that covid behaves any different to any other coronavirus' or influenza. So once it is has established itself in the country (and basically got everywhere which it has) it is endemic.

In Europe the response curves from covid are pretty clear (both in locked and unlocked countries) there is a strong element of seasonality, is quite glaring. If you don't think this is the case then presumably you think that we will not see any uptick in the virus this winter and presumably you are expecting the virus to spread again this summer - much like it didn't last summer?

Remember a virus doesn't distinguish between people who work through a lockdown and people who don't so those people who have kept working and mixing out of necessity are just as likely to spread a virus beforehand than those who just come out of their lockdown burrows surprised to see a country still functioning. As has long been said - why weren't supermarket workers particularly hit by the viral load during lockdowns? They are super exposed but there is no pattern at all there.

 

[Selwyn]

I asked for evidence....where is it?

Now please go away and provide some or edit your posts to say "in my opinion, Covid is now endemic"

The evidence is that covid is still here and will now always be here. It won't be eliminated. Its probably done the rounds of the country twice.

The reason its not recognised as endemic rather than pandemic? Politics. Its much easier justify extreme reactions if we pretend we are still in a state of emergency. Average deaths in the UK for the past month with covid?


About 10

Thats a pandemic apparently......

 

[Rorschach]

There is no reason to suppose that covid behaves any different to any other coronavirus' or influenza. So once it is has established itself in the country (and basically got everywhere which it has) it is endemic.

In Europe the response curves from covid are pretty clear (both in locked and unlocked countries) there is a strong element of seasonality, is quite glaring. If you don't think this is the case then presumably you think that we will not see any uptick in the virus this winter and presumably you are expecting the virus to spread again this summer - much like it didn't last summer?

Remember a virus doesn't distinguish between people who work through a lockdown and people who don't so those people who have kept working and mixing out of necessity are just as likely to spread a virus beforehand than those who just come out of their lockdown burrows surprised to see a country still functioning. As has long been said - why weren't supermarket workers particularly hit by the viral load during lockdowns? They are super exposed but there is no pattern at all there.

Sitting at a checkout touching tens of thousands of items every day while thousands of ever changing people walk through the shop touching said items - Perfectly safe.
Taking a plate of chips to one of a few dozen people for that day in your restaurant - Oh dear god they're all gonna die!

 

[MikeK]

This thread has run its course.