Northern on the rocks

[frugal]

Frugal...true, the media does have a lot to account for ...not only sloppy journalism and headline grabbing.

Yeah, the quality of journalism has declined over the years and most journalists are just there to reissue the press releases that they are handed. If you read the same story in half a dozen places they all have the same content (often verbatim) with just a different editorial bias.

The one that annoys me at the moment is the suicides in Brigend. "Suicide total reaches 17" reads the headline and it sounds scary, which is their intention. But if you think about it for a while, it is meaningless. 17 suicides over what period of time? How does that differ from the per capita suicide rate of that social group in the region? in the country? How does the rate compare to previous years (is this a known high suicide rate)? Without context the number 17 is completely meaningless, but now they have forced the police to spend a lot of time coming up with a strategy to deter kids from killing themselves.

It may well be that the figure of 17 is high, but no one has provided any evidence to show that.

 

[RogerS]

It may well be that the figure of 17 is high, but no one has provided any evidence to show that.

It isn't high. Surprised to hear on Radio 4 last night that the average is 15 per ...sorry can't remember the exact figure....but the point being made was that 17 compared to 15 wasn't that high. However, sloppy journalism again, they didn't compare the demographics age-wise between the 'norm' and Bridgend. They did say that there was absolutely no evidence of the internet cult voodoo/bandwagonitis that the media are claiming.

 

[StevieB]

Not that I am leaping to journalists defence here, but quite often the figures are simply not known. There is no small dingy office where people sit compiling incidence figures by age, sex, religion or any other demographic you care to mention just on the off chance its needed in a news story next week/month/year. Statistical analysis on that scale is difficult, time consuming and expensive. More importantly it also has large confidence intervals on the significance of any findings, as you would expect from any rare event in a large population such as suicide, being hit by a train or killed by a tornado etc etc.

Only on discovering an apparent trend is an analysis performed to see if it is significantly different from the norm - going through death reports from coroners, police investigation files etc etc. A big job for a team of people, let alone a journalist looking for their next scoop by a deadline.

Journalistic integrity is another matter, but lack of comparison data is usually because the comparison data simply is not known.

Steve.

 

[RogerS]

.....

Journalistic integrity is another matter, but lack of comparison data is usually because the comparison data simply is not known.

Steve.

Very true. Just look at the statistics (or rather lack of them) from RoSPA on deaths and accidents due to faulty wiring !

 

[BradNaylor]

I'm happy the price has risen, but to have it's value dumped by 20% in less than a year because of those idiots really gets my gall.

No-one likes to the the value of their asset fall, but history teaches us that that if property values rise steeply, as they have done for the last ten years around much of the world, then they are almost certain to fall steeply at some point too.

Property prices in the USA have fallen in the last two years because they were over-valued. They rose too much.

'Those idiots' were to blame largely for the rise in property prices by ridiculous lending policies ramping up demand and enabling people to pay ever higher prices. The fall in prices is simply the inevitable outcome of people not being able to afford the loans that they were persuaded to take out.

If you had had the foresight (or luck) to sell two years ago you would now be raising a glass to 'those idiots'. As it is, I am sure that your home is even now worth considerably more than you paid for it, and as an investment has done OK.

We are of course, seeing the start of a similar collapse in house prices here - for exactly the same reasons.

Cheers
Dan

 

[devonwoody]

Remember;

what goes up must come down.

its a natural law.

 

[Losos]

Yeah, the quality of journalism has declined over the years and most journalists are just there to reissue the press releases that they are handed. If you read the same story in half a dozen places they all have the same content (often verbatim) with just a different editorial bias.

The one that annoys me at the moment is the suicides in Brigend. "Suicide total reaches 17" reads the headline and it sounds scary, which is their intention. But if you think about it for a while, it is meaningless. 17 suicides over what period of time? How does that differ from the per capita suicide rate of that social group in the region? in the country? How does the rate compare to previous years (is this a known high suicide rate)? Without context the number 17 is completely meaningless, but now they have forced the police to spend a lot of time coming up with a strategy to deter kids from killing themselves.

It may well be that the figure of 17 is high, but no one has provided any evidence to show that.

Good post - As some of you may know I have been waging a one man war against the media for ages :lol: Has had no effect BTW :lol: but your example above is very typical of the media 'one minute wonder' story, in that gruby world it's all about headlines and readership and humans being what they are many go for it like ducks to water.
And they are always banging on about what a good job they are doing bringing all this 'news' to all these uneducated people - Tosh, what we need is less information going to all the cruel, uneducated, fanatics of this world not more - OK rant over :lol:

 

[Digit]

I could add another one, 'Man Made Global Warming!'
Over the last few years without that the front pages would have been empty.

 

[tim]

It may well be that the figure of 17 is high, but no one has provided any evidence to show that.

It isn't high. Surprised to hear on Radio 4 last night that the average is 15 per ...sorry can't remember the exact figure....but the point being made was that 17 compared to 15 wasn't that high. However, sloppy journalism again, they didn't compare the demographics age-wise between the 'norm' and Bridgend. They did say that there was absolutely no evidence of the internet cult voodoo/bandwagonitis that the media are claiming.

Its 15 per 100,000 pop. Bridgend pop is 130,000 so considering only those stats would that Bridgend has a lower than average suicide rate. But then thats the trouble with stats. As any marketeer worth their salt will tell you, you can make anything sound good. No 1 in the market sounds great until you realise that you are no 1 in the market because you are way cheaper than no.2. No 2 in fact makes 10 times more money....

Cheers

Tim

 

[devonwoody]

Coming back to Northern Rock, Suppose the mortgage rates are kept low?
Supposing instead the interest rates to lenders is raised ?

With the high customer base the market is controlled not perhaps by market forces?

An interesting interest rate future lies ahead.

 

[RogerS]

Coming back to Northern Rock, Suppose the mortgage rates are kept low?
Supposing instead the interest rates to lenders is raised ?

With the high customer base the market is controlled not perhaps by market forces?

An interesting interest rate future lies ahead.

Wot? You mean if Darling Chancer is short of a few bob then he just hikes up the interest rate to Northern Rock customers? Surely not ? That would be unethical.

 

[devonwoody]

No Roger, what I was implying is that if NR acts like it has and can have done in the past, raises or lowers it rates, it is then not now acting like normal commercial business. After all we have had increases by B.S and lenders that other institutions then follow.

But this time any initial NR change could be considered not a normal business transaction.

 

[Losos]

But this time any initial NR change could be considered not a normal business transaction.

Isn't that what all the other bankers are concerned about :?: Namely that now NR can 'play' with interest rates up or down and doesn't have to concern itself with the finer points of banking 'cos it has the Bank of England firmly behind it :roll: i.e. it can't go bust :lol:

As mentioned this is only tempory (But that means 2 to 3 years at least) Mr. Branson might come back with another offer, but equally he might not, and even if he does it won't be a lot more than he offered now.

The other banks are at a disadvantage, I guess they'll just have to grin and bear it.