Northern on the rocks

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Did anyone see Dispatches on Channel 4 last night?

IMO a very well presented programme that clearly explained the who, the why and the when behind the whole debacle and also more scary what might happen next in the finance sector.
 
What I don't understand about the Northern Rock affair is how it caught everyone by surprise.

I participate in a few forums relating to financial matters and it was common knowledge there back in March/April that NR was going bust.

Yet it wasn't until September that journalists or the government seem to have got wind of what was going on - basically mismanagement on a stupendous level.

This nationalisation will be a disaster for the taxpayer and for the government. Northern Rock is bankrupt and should be closed down in an orderly fashion securing as much money from assets as possible for the taxpayer. Shareholders took a punt and lost. They should not get a penny.

There is an excellent analysis in yesterday's Times.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article3386753.ece
 
My concern is now, why did B & B shares collapse on Friday, before the announcement of NR on a Sunday afternoon.

to avoid controversy I have edited part of my thread out.
 
devonwoody":2ehdoxu0 said:
There might be some political content knocking around on this thread but I would say if a viewer doesnt like its content he needn't come back to view the further postings.

Its not your opinion that counts :roll: :roll:
 
devonwoody":12wg0lam said:
There might be some political content knocking around on this thread but I would say if a viewer doesnt like its content he needn't come back to view the further postings.

and what about the people who want to participate in this thread without breaking the rules?
 
From a purely selfish point of view if the banks hadn't chosen to ignore their own rules we probably wouldn't be facing a melt-down in the housing market now. From a first time buyer's perspective a melt-down might be welcome, but the reality for the economy and everyone else is a disaster. So, I am really p*ssed off at some idiots lending money to people who should never have been lent to in order to buy properties that were overvalued and never inspected for their true worth - because now my own property (in the US) is down by almost 20% and that's a few years' of retirement savings gone down the tube. Nor will it recover in time, for me anyway. How DARE those idiots destroy my life - and get massive bonuses for doing it to boot??? :evil: :evil: :evil:

I think a class action suit is on the cards....
 
Sorry WHW, you could equally argue that property prices fall as well as rise and that you take that risk when investing. I think a class action would fail firstly because who do you bring it against? And secondly how do you prove that subprime is the direct and only cause of property price falls?

Steve.
 
tim":1ext7wxx said:
Out of interest, how does this thread not contravene Forum rule 6 - no political discussion?

Cheers

Tim

It's being monitored :wink:
 
devonwoody":3dr5qs8h said:
My concern is now, why did B & B shares collapse on Friday, before the announcement of NR on a Sunday afternoon.

Because everyone in the market thinks B&B is next, if any bank is, and - the City being what it is - there were no doubt rumours flying around by then that the private sector bids were failing and nationalisation was on the cards = investors with bitten fingers.

Or just some other bad news in the banking sector - every time there is any bad news at one bank, all the shares get hammered, especially those which really aren't trusted like B&B.
 
StevieB":15atu0ds said:
Sorry WHW, you could equally argue that property prices fall as well as rise and that you take that risk when investing. I think a class action would fail firstly because who do you bring it against? And secondly how do you prove that subprime is the direct and only cause of property price falls?

Steve.
Because the causal link is there for everyone to see. Anyway, our home wasn't intended as an investment, but as a home - until we needed to sell it to cover our retirement home costs (this is the US remember). I'm happy the price has risen, but to have it's value dumped by 20% in less than a year because of those idiots really gets my gall.
 
The other way of looking it at it is that the US property market was at least in part artificially inflated by the idiotic lending, so what you've 'lost' you wouldn't have had but for the idiocy.

Anyway, the thing that precipitated the sub-prime collapse was the increase in interest rates, coupled with a property market on the slide anyway, so not all of your 20% can be attributed to sub-prime lending issues.
 
If you really want to have a sleepless night then don't read this article http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f75c80e4-d3fd ... fd2ac.html.

The FT is not given to unresearched, emotive, hyped prose as a rule and I don't think that this article is any exception. It was also highlighted as the next house of cards in the Dispatches programme.

The programme was also pretty unequivocal in laying the blame for the NR fiasco down to the lack of any one organisation actually being in control. There was a triumvirate operating - the Treasury, the Bank of England and the FSA. The FSA were asleep on their watch. The Bank of England couldn't intervene quietly because it lacked the legislation/legal framework to do so and the Treasury...well, enough said. The public are not stupid, picked up on this lack of overall responsibility and so the rush on NR began.

The triumvirate was set up by Mr Brown when he was Chancellor.
 
RogerS":2n4xe3pl said:
Should have let it go to the wall.

The modern banking system is that it is entirely based on faith. The banking system used to be based on tangible things like gold, but since we abandonded the gold standard your money does not actually exist any more, it is just virtual money that only exists because everyone keeps believing in it.

The problem with this is that once people loose faith in one particular bank there is a serious knock on effect that drags down every other bank. As someone else pointed out there is a lot of uncertainty about the Bradford and Bingley, if Northern Rock had folded then B&B would have gone inside a month. And if that happened then a lot of investors (especially the important international ones) would consider that a sign that the UK was not a safe place to invest as the banking sector was shaky.

There are three things about this whole debacle that really annoy me:

1 - The week before Barclays borrowed much more money from the Bank of England for exactly the same thing and not a murmur was heard

2 - At no point have the media been held accountable for the pivotable role they had in the collapse of Northern Rock.

3 - A few people made billions by selling Northern Rock short which exacerbated the slide.

It is a tenant of banking that only about 10% of the cash deposited in a bank is every available for withdrawal (either as cash or as liquids assets available to be given back to the customer when they want it transferred to another bank), the rest is lent out to other people (mortgages, other banks, governments etc). So if there is ever a run on withdrawals from a bank then they can only provide 10% before they have to start cashing in loans - which they can't do easily, so they have to borrow from other organizations which makes them look bad in the eyes of the public.

If the media had not reported this, then it would not have happened. Northern Rock borrowed money (all backs do it all of the time, it is nothing unusual), for a change the media reported on it (either it was a slow news day, or some government lackey wanted a distraction from the latest scandal so suggested it to a friendly editor). A few people start to withdraw their savings. This leads to nice photogenic pictures of people queuing at the branches and the media tell everyone that the bank is about to fail. Which everyone believes regardless of whether it was true or not, so they all go to withdraw their money. The bank can not give them all their money as they have lent most of it to other people already, so they have to go to the bank of England to borrow some, which the media then declare is an example of the corrupt banking sector propping each other up, and that the bank was sure to fail, so even more people tried to withdraw money.

Yes the bank lost money in America, enough to annoy the shareholders, but not enough to make the bank collapse.

The reason that the bank collapsed was because the Telly told the potato people it would collapse and the potato people accepting that without challenging it. I learnt 20 years ago in A-level economics that the easiest way to make a bank collapse was to convince enough people that the bank was going to collapse, something that all of the finance journalists in the country do not appear to have learnt.
 
The real problem was that banks lost trust in each other (because they didn't know what their own sub-prime losses were because it was all packaged up in obscure products), so they stopped lending to each other on the overnight and short term markets, except in small quantities, in case the bank they lent to had so many sub-prime liabilities that it was about to collapse. As the Northern Rock was entirely dependent on the short term money market for its funding (unlike most banks, who use a variety of instruments) they couldn't service their business, so they needed the BoE to step in.
 
Yep, credit default swaps are a nightmare in the wings, and so obscure that no-one really understands what will happen if and when they do all unravel, as the risks have been parcelled up and passed around and around in so many ways.

So are the monoline credit risk insurers in the US, who insure instruments so that they get investment grade status from what is really a pretty junky underlying asset. They've issued $trillions of insurance, which is essentially worthless, but the credit rating agencies (who have to share a massive part of the blame) are so slow that they are only beginning to re-rate those instruments to reflect the absence of meaningful insurance (because the monolines are now effectively bust). As soon as they do, off comes the investment grade rating, loads of institutions have to sell them (because their capital adequacy requirements restrict them to investment grade), so they become essentially worthless - a few $trillion more losses waiting in the wings there.

At least some of them might litigate!
 
frugal":24n8vm4n said:
The reason that the bank collapsed was because the Telly told the potato people it would collapse and the potato people accepting that without challenging it. I

Actually the reason NR collapsed was because its business model was fatally flawed.

Unlike other banks it raised the bulk of the money it lent out on the money markets rather than from depositors.

This worked fine while money was readily available and cheap and allowed the bank to expand at a breakneck speed. When the market for money changed however, due to the US sub-prime fiasco, they ran out of cash.

In my view the media were actually very slow in picking up on the story. The blame lies squarely with Adam Applegarth, the erstwhile Chief Executive.

He will never work again...

... there again, he doesn't need to!
 
Dan Tovey":16m5sp1m said:
Unlike other banks it raised the bulk of the money it lent out on the money markets rather than from depositors.

Don't most banks raise most of their money from the markets? The problem with Northern Rock as I understand it was that they raised it by issuing short dated bonds but then lent it on 25 year mortgages. Their business model was to keep refinancing but they faced problems when that refinancing capital became hard to come by because all the other financial institutions were unsure of their own exposure to sub-prime lending.

But I could be wrong.

Andrew
 
Frugal...true, the media does have a lot to account for ...not only sloppy journalism and headline grabbing ...but equally if there was nothing for them to chew on...and I'm thinking of the fact that no-one was actually in charge of trying to sort our NR in the beginning then it would be more difficult for them to dream up their articles.
 
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