How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

[Selwyn]

Someone posted this to another forum.

View attachment 102187

This the same Japan that didn't lockdown. Funny that...

 

[RobinBHM]

It couldn't be more obvious that transmission is seasonal. All these types of virus become seasonal. This is the clear evidence.

Evidence proves you are wrong.

They become seasonal once But, only once herd immunity is achieved through natural infection or vaccinations.


Warm weather does not kill off the coronavirus or hamper its ability to spread, two separate studies have found.

"US and Canadian researchers said the transmission risk was only reduced by about 1.5 per cent for every degree Fahrenheit above 77F (25C).

They analysed more than 370,000 cases in thousands of different cities in North America to come to the conclusion 'summer is not going to make this go away.'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-Two-separate-studies-dash-hopes-summer.html

 

[RobinBHM]

More evidence Covid is not seasonal

Hot or cold, weather alone has no significant effect on COVID-19 spread



Research led by The University of Texas at Austin is adding some clarity on weather's role in COVID-19 infection, with a new study finding that temperature and humidity do not play a significant role in coronavirus spread.

That means whether it's hot or cold outside, the transmission of COVID-19 from one person to the next depends almost entirely on human behavior.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/201102155409.htm

 

[julianf]

Isn't it obvious to you already? There are reams and reams of data. Just look at the statistics.

Outside the obvious peak in April how many people are dying? About .1-.2%, maybe even less. Of which the vast majority are old. Sad of course but for some it will have been a release as well given the level of comorbidities. And that peak was exacerbated because we chucked people out of hospitals into care homes - disaster but its done now.

There are millions of people who have tested "positive" but have no illness or symptoms.
There will be millions of others who have not had a test, had no illness or symptoms but could potentially have tested "positive"
There will be millions of others who are totally unaffected and to all intents and purposes immune even if in a room full of Covid sufferers. Children are a great example, bursting with antibodies and good health they are immune, but this can still be the case in a care home too.

There is a tiny section of people who will be desparately unlucky who would be healthy and young but succumb. A lot of these may have unknown comorbidities.

In places where the weather is less conducive to respiratory diseases there will be more immunity.

If there wasn't a strong element of immunity more people would have had Covid. Its a nasty virus.

I'm sorry, I thought you meant immunity, rather than symptomatic.

It is entirely incorrect of you to claim immunity from the data you suggest.

Able to be infected without becoming symptomatic is not the same as immunity, and, outside of any and all other arguments, you were incorrect to claim they were the same.

 

[RobinBHM]

Further explanation of why Covid is not seasonal:

"This leads us to the last point: Even seasonal infections can happen “out of season” when they are new.
New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them. Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter."

https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

 

[RobinBHM]

If there wasn't a strong element of immunity more people would have had Covid

The reason more people haven't had it is because thankfully governments around the world make decisions based on experts and data.....not from people like you.

 

[Noel]

This the same Japan that didn't lockdown. Funny that...

They actually did a national lockdown, Abe did not make it mandatory (the legal system presents some difficulties in this situation) but it seems that most of the population heeded his advice. I remember seeing the streets of Japanese cities deserted where normally you couldn't see the ground for the mass of people. His successor Suga issued another state of emergency earlier this month for Tokyo and other cities, it seems most are doing as there are advised. All foreign flights banned, work at home etc.
Culture and individual societies make a lot of difference. Testing is a big issue as well, too few.
As for the Olympics, it would hard to see them going ahead. despite government reassurances.

 

[Rorschach]

I see Rorschach laughs when I say you can't shield the millions of vulnerable people.

But he can't provide any evidence whatsoever that it's at all possible.



That's the problem with GBD and other herd immunity advocates........they all sound plausible but they all gloss over hard facts.

Yeah you can't shield a couple of million but you can lockdown 70 million, makes perfect sense

 

[RobinBHM]

Outside the obvious peak in April how many people are dying? About .1-.2%, maybe even less. Of which the vast majority are old. Sad of course but for some it will have been a release as well given the level of comorbidities

Ah, the good old: "Covid only kills a few old people, so there is no need for lockdown"


Here is the reality:

“COVID-19 is not just hazardous for elderly people, it is extremely dangerous for people in their mid-fifties, sixties and seventies"
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02483-2
Is it just old people at risk?

There are specific high-risk preexisting comorbidities for COVID-19 hospitalization and related deaths in community-based older men and women. These results do not support simple age-based targeting of the older population to prevent severe COVID-19 infections

https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/article/75/11/2224/5873904

 

[RobinBHM]

Of which the vast majority are old. Sad of course but for some it will have been a release

"Rupert Pearse, an intensive care consultant at the Royal London Hospital, said: “The situation in London is now much worse than the first wave and still deteriorating. Sad to see long queues of ambulances outside the hospital where I work. Almost all my patients are less than 60 years old and previously fit. If you think this disease can’t touch you, then think again"

Selwyn says: " it's a release for all those younger people under 60"

 

[Selwyn]

I'm sorry, I thought you meant immunity, rather than symptomatic.

It is entirely incorrect of you to claim immunity from the data you suggest.

Able to be infected without becoming symptomatic is not the same as immunity, and, outside of any and all other arguments, you were incorrect to claim they were the same.

No I mean both. I am not claiming they are the same.

There are some people that will be who will be infected and not symptomatic (although this data is in a mess because a lot of people without symptoms were having tests). We pretend these people are "ill" but it goes against all our historical experience of previous immunology.

There will also be a lot of people with immunity. Fullstop. There has to be. Think about how virus' have evolved. They are us. The statistics indicate this - the most vulnerable to Covid are the most vulnerable for a range of other reasons as well overwhelmingly.

 

[Selwyn]

Evidence proves you are wrong.

They become seasonal once But, only once herd immunity is achieved through natural infection or vaccinations.


Warm weather does not kill off the coronavirus or hamper its ability to spread, two separate studies have found.

"US and Canadian researchers said the transmission risk was only reduced by about 1.5 per cent for every degree Fahrenheit above 77F (25C).

They analysed more than 370,000 cases in thousands of different cities in North America to come to the conclusion 'summer is not going to make this go away.'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-Two-separate-studies-dash-hopes-summer.html

It totally depends on the country and the way their viral seasons have evolved. Its not about hot or cold weather per se, and I didn't claim it was. Viral seasons are different for each country - we know when our European viral season is

 

[Selwyn]

"Rupert Pearse, an intensive care consultant at the Royal London Hospital, said: “The situation in London is now much worse than the first wave and still deteriorating. Sad to see long queues of ambulances outside the hospital where I work. Almost all my patients are less than 60 years old and previously fit. If you think this disease can’t touch you, then think again"

Selwyn says: " it's a release for all those younger people under 60"

This isn't what I said. Argue the data not chit chat of "long queues" etc.

 

[RobinBHM]

Yeah you can't shield a couple of million but you can lockdown 70 million, makes perfect sense

Nice deflection to avoid admitting it's impossible to identify vulnerable people....of which there are many millions.

70 million people locked down eh?

Is that true?

Majority of people can continue working.
Schools are at 30% to 50% capacity

Where are these people that are locked down?

 

[RobinBHM]

but you can lockdown 70 million

Yes that is a real concern.....locking down 4 million more people than actually live in the UK.

 

[RobinBHM]

This isn't what I said. Argue the data not chit chat of "long queues" etc.

You deliberately avoid the salient point "Almost all my patients are less than 60 years old and previously fit."

Nice strawman by the way. ("Not chit chat of long queues").

 

[Selwyn]

Nice deflection to avoid admitting it's impossible to identify vulnerable people....of which there are many millions.

70 million people locked down eh?

Is that true?

Majority of people can continue working.
Schools are at 30% to 50% capacity

Where are these people that are locked down?

Of course you can identify vulnerable people you daft man.

 

[Selwyn]

You deliberately avoid the salient point "Almost all my patients are less than 60 years old and previously fit."

Nice strawman by the way. ("Not chit chat of long queues").

Twitter quotes are not the bigger picture. He is not giving us numbers of people, the situation in all the hospitals, the level of healthy staff who are off work but not ill etc.

Its not the big picture. If you want to argue that we need the sledgehammer of lockdown everywhere then you need more than one doctors tweet from his perspective.

You need to open your eyes a little more

 

[RobinBHM]

It totally depends on the country and the way their viral seasons have evolved. Its not about hot or cold weather per se, and I didn't claim it was. Viral seasons are different for each country - we know when our European viral season is

You claim Covid is seasonal.

It is not, as the extensive evidence I've shown proves.


Your opinion is that Covid waves are determined by seasonality and lockdowns have no effect......you are rigidly sticking to your belief and are dogmatically picking and choosing data to try and support your argument.



Choice supportive bias is preventing you from doing unbiased research and critical thinking.........you are denying yourself the truth which limits your understanding of the disease.

 

[Selwyn]

They actually did a national lockdown, Abe did not make it mandatory (the legal system presents some difficulties in this situation) but it seems that most of the population heeded his advice. I remember seeing the streets of Japanese cities deserted where normally you couldn't see the ground for the mass of people. His successor Suga issued another state of emergency earlier this month for Tokyo and other cities, it seems most are doing as there are advised. All foreign flights banned, work at home etc.
Culture and individual societies make a lot of difference. Testing is a big issue as well, too few.
As for the Olympics, it would hard to see them going ahead. despite government reassurances.

Maybe we should have had a more lenient lockdown like Japan then? Fanatics won't like it