How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

[Mark Hancock]

You will see eventually that is is seasonal now, its so blindingly obvious. We are seeing a classic gompertz curve now.

Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that. And those who are not immune are overwhelmingly likely not to become too ill.

Selwyn, just out of interest what planet do you live on?....ignore the above quote as it was just one of many I could have used and like the others is irrelevant.

 

[Noel]

A friend of mine was telling me the other day that we can expect C21 Arriving in the population in March....I’m sure it’s a hot topic on various FB pages that I used to think were quite funny.

 

[RobinBHM]

You may doubt it - I don't. Deaths are a function of the number of infections before lockdown (and the effectiveness of lockdown) . Cases were doubling every three days in March 2020 - a week late in lockdown means approx four times the number of cases and subsequent deaths

Yes indeed, the exponential nature of infection spread means the earlier and faster the lockdown the less community spread there is.


That is something the anti lockdown believers don't appreciate......the later interventions are made, the harder the lockdown has to be and the greater the economic damage.

That is why there binary argument of lockdown versus economy doesn't work.

Less lockdown at the beginning to protect the economy.....ends up doing the opposite.

 

[RobinBHM]

You can't shield the millions of vulnerable people.

I see Rorschach laughs when I say you can't shield the millions of vulnerable people.

But he can't provide any evidence whatsoever that it's at all possible.



That's the problem with GBD and other herd immunity advocates........they all sound plausible but they all gloss over hard facts.

 

[Selwyn]

You can't shield the millions of vulnerable people.

You can

 

[Selwyn]

So you think the best route would be to have minimum lockdown.....with schools etc open.

that would mean infection rates would keep going up....resulting in lockdown lasting longer with more hospital admissions.


By the way....school closures work
"recent evidence has been in favour of the importance of this NPI28,29; school closures in the United States have been found to reduce COVID-19 incidence and mortality by about 60%"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

Minimum lockdown yes. Stop posting that more lockdown = less admissions. This is not factually correct.

 

[Selwyn]

Selwyn please please please can you stop posting opinions presented as facts.


Why do you insist on claiming Covid is now seasonal when I've posted evidence from scientists that says it is not.

Here is yet another quote for you:

"We hypothesized that COVID-19 will continue to circulate year-round until herd immunity is achieved.

In your research you stated that COVID-19 could become a seasonal virus but only when herd immunity is reached. Why is this?
As population immunity builds up, the transmission rate of the virus will drop making it more susceptible to environmental factors that govern seasonality."

In Europe covid cases declined in the whole of Europe in the summer season

Selwyn please please please can you stop posting opinions presented as facts.


Why do you insist on claiming Covid is now seasonal when I've posted evidence from scientists that says it is not.

Here is yet another quote for you:

"We hypothesized that COVID-19 will continue to circulate year-round until herd immunity is achieved.

In your research you stated that COVID-19 could become a seasonal virus but only when herd immunity is reached. Why is this?
As population immunity builds up, the transmission rate of the virus will drop making it more susceptible to environmental factors that govern seasonality."

In Europe the Covid death rates declined massively in the summer season, regardless of lockdown strategy. It couldn't be more obvious that transmission is seasonal. All these types of virus become seasonal. This is the clear evidence.

You have quoted that a scientist "hypothesized". So what? Lots of scientists have hypothesised lots of things about Covid and lots of it have turned out to be wrong. It will continue to be driven by seasonality and mass pcr testing

 

[Jameshow]

Minimum lockdown yes. Stop posting that more lockdown = less admissions. This is not factually correct.

Explain why it's not factually correct???

Cheers James

 

[Selwyn]

Selwyn, just out of interest what planet do you live on?....ignore the above quote as it was just one of many I could have used and like the others is irrelevant.

Happily ignored. Stay in your bedroom

 

[RobinBHM]

You can

The comments you post are based on what you need to believe to fit in with your argument.

This is a typical example.

You claim vulnerable people can be protected.......but you provide no evidence, nothing.

 

[Selwyn]

Explain why it's not factually correct???

Cheers James

Because its unproven. It defies scientific reasoning because and because it is not provable or disprovable, it is not a logical reason.

Virus ebbs and flows. Do you see the waves peaking before lockdown in my chart on Wales? Them's the facts

 

[Jameshow]

Of course it is seasonal - no one is denying that, hence the large outbreaks at cold factories.

It's not driven by PCR testing how can testing drive an pandemic????

It can monitor it! But nothing else!

Cheers James

 

[RobinBHM]

Minimum lockdown yes. Stop posting that more lockdown = less admissions. This is not factually correct.

Earlier, harder, faster lockdowns do mean less admissions.

And yes it is factually correct.

By the way, I didn't say "more lockdown"


You could argue some non pharmaceutical interventions have more effect than others.....that is certainly true, but that is emerging data and it's very hard to isolate the effect of one NPI from others as they are all overlapped.

 

[Selwyn]

The comments you post are based on what you need to believe to fit in with your argument.

This is a typical example.

You claim vulnerable people can be protected.......but you provide no evidence, nothing.

You don't provide any evidence for lockdown. Just unattributed quotes from Sage or a scientist. I've shown you lots of evidence that curves fall before lockdowns but it doesn't fit your dream of exponential viral growth (which by the way hasn't happened anywhere in the world - it has ebbed and flowed accordingly)

As I say once you leave you bedroom, you will find that people are out and about working and doing their thing because they have no choice and have to keep working. Not just "key workers" but independent people who need to keep business and the show on the road.

You will see one day that what you have invested in emotionally and the time you have spent to scared to open the door has largely been pointless.

 

[Selwyn]

Of course it is seasonal - no one is denying that, hence the large outbreaks at cold factories.

It's not driven by PCR testing how can testing drive an pandemic????

It can monitor it! But nothing else!

Cheers James

Mass testing of students before Xmas? Come on. That is not monitoring a virus. Testing everyone - whether they are ill or not before Xmas is not monitoring a virus. Do the same test on a town and you will get the same data.

Robin is convinced it is not seasonal yet cannot explain the lack of transmission in the summer (for all countries).

 

[Selwyn]

Earlier, harder, faster lockdowns do mean less admissions.

And yes it is factually correct.

By the way, I didn't say "more lockdown"


You could argue some non pharmaceutical interventions have more effect than others.....that is certainly true, but that is emerging data and it's very hard to isolate the effect of one NPI from others as they are all overlapped.

You can claim it is emerging data. but then you would also be guilty of ignoring all the history of immunology . Covid is a nasty virus - but it is not that special or innovative over and above any other.

If you want to correlate lockdown and lower admissions then you need to also correlate masks and more admissions. The more mask wearing we have done the more deaths we have had. Maybe you only want science to your interpretation?

 

[Selwyn]

Yes indeed, the exponential nature of infection spread means the earlier and faster the lockdown the less community spread there is.


That is something the anti lockdown believers don't appreciate......the later interventions are made, the harder the lockdown has to be and the greater the economic damage.

That is why there binary argument of lockdown versus economy doesn't work.

Less lockdown at the beginning to protect the economy.....ends up doing the opposite.

Look at my chart above from Wales for just one local example. It doesn't grow exponentially. It never did in places where they didn't lockdown. You don't even understand what exponential means

There is loads of evidence that it doesn't grow exponentially. It ebbs and flows.

 

[julianf]

Someone posted this to another forum.

 

[julianf]

Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that.

Could you possibly link me to the data your are referring to?

 

[Selwyn]

Could you possibly link me to the data your are referring to?

Isn't it obvious to you already? There are reams and reams of data. Just look at the statistics.

Outside the obvious peak in April how many people are dying? About .1-.2%, maybe even less. Of which the vast majority are old. Sad of course but for some it will have been a release as well given the level of comorbidities. And that peak was exacerbated because we chucked people out of hospitals into care homes - disaster but its done now.

There are millions of people who have tested "positive" but have no illness or symptoms.
There will be millions of others who have not had a test, had no illness or symptoms but could potentially have tested "positive"
There will be millions of others who are totally unaffected and to all intents and purposes immune even if in a room full of Covid sufferers. Children are a great example, bursting with antibodies and good health they are immune, but this can still be the case in a care home too.

There is a tiny section of people who will be desparately unlucky who would be healthy and young but succumb. A lot of these may have unknown comorbidities.

In places where the weather is less conducive to respiratory diseases there will be more immunity.

If there wasn't a strong element of immunity more people would have had Covid. Its a nasty virus.