How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

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I doubt a week really made a difference in lockdown.

You may doubt it - I don't. Deaths are a function of the number of infections before lockdown (and the effectiveness of lockdown) . Cases were doubling every three days in March 2020 - a week late in lockdown means approx four times the number of cases and subsequent deaths.

If this vaccine is only as effective as the flu vaccine I suspect we will see multiple thousand deaths each year.

Based on vaccine approval an effective rate of ~90% is expected. Flu vaccine is approx 50% effective.

Each year 5-20k early deaths are flu related. As a society we implicitly accept this level of risk. The extent to which the virus naturally mutates and those vaccinated are able to transmit the virus is not yet fully understood, but like flu it may simply become an "acceptable risk".
 
Analysis of why the UK did so poorly without resorting to simplistic political point scoring would be more useful. Focus on the issues, not just because you don't like the Tories.

I regard Jeremy Corbyn, who would otherwise be PM had he not utterly failed at the last election, as a man driven by political ideology, supported by incompetent sycophants (John McDonnell being an exception). But this does not explain what went wrong with covid.
  • the UK had totally inadequate contingency plans - lack of PPE, testing capacity, ventilators etc. This is the fault of earlier governments - possibly going back several decades.
  • By around 14th March, the track and trace strategy was stopped on the grounds that infection in the community was too widespread. A contingency planning weakness.
  • Boris locked down a week too late. Certainly with hindsight he was wrong.
  • I'm am unconvinced closing borders would have made any real difference once community infection was widespread. NZ are the end of a branch line, UK is a hub. Comparison is pointless.
  • Boris should have held the first lockdown a few weeks more to get infection rates right down over the summer.
  • Boris delayed the second lockdown by 2-3 weeks contrary to scientific advice
  • The mutated virus was not predictable and made what may have been an otherwise reasonable plan over xmas wrong.
  • The vaccine rollout can thus far only be judged a great success
  • Education was and is a shambles
The only major european neighbour to have performed notably better is Germany. They locked down earlier in March, but are now experiencing precisely the same problems as the rest of western europe

Track and trace only works with low levels of infection. We did not get this right. When new cases exceed 10k per day it becomes ineffective.

The UK has a policing by consent culture. It has limited capacity to force compliance, unlike other parts of the world.

The UK believes social irresponsibility is a right. Other cultures place a high value on personal adherence to social norms.

The UK is very fertile ground to encourage the spread of a virus. It is passed on by social interaction. We allow misinformation to flourish. We are more concerned to protect peoples rights than lives. We have neither the culture or capability to ensure compliance.

We were sitting ducks waiting for a pandemic to occur. Government repsonse may have been different with a different administration, but I suspect the outcome may have been very similar.

Even I can find a lot to agree with in there. Nicely put.
 
Continuing deaths each winter is pretty much inevitable, like flu at the moment. Since C19 is absolutely more transmissible in its current form than flu, and slightly more deadly for those in the oldest groups I suspect that C19 or a variants of it will replace flu as the primary winter killer. The vaccines looks to be much more effective than the flu vaccines but this is countered by easier infection so whether the numbers of deaths will be similar it is hard to say, especially since flu deaths historically are only really a best guess. Hopefully given time the general public will come to realise that anything up to 50k deaths each winter (assume NHS gets it's act together finally) is normal and nothing to worry about, otherwise we will be locked down every winter and deaths will be even higher.
 
It is defintely seasonal. It could not be more obvious that it is

Selwyn, for goodness sake go and google this, because you are WRONG.

How many times do I have to repeat it?

Why are you unable to learn?

Why do you dogmatically repeat the same thing which is untrue?



Links that confirm Covid is NOT seasonal.

1. WHO. "From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19"

2 healthcare in Europe: "Researchers predict that COVID-19 will likely become seasonal, waning in the summer and prevalent in the winter. But, only once herd immunity is achieved through natural infection or vaccinations"

3. Nature.com: "Researchers say it’s too early in the COVID-19 pandemic to say whether SARS-CoV-2 will become a seasonal virus"
 
Continuing deaths each winter is pretty much inevitable, like flu at the moment. Since C19 is absolutely more transmissible in its current form than flu, and slightly more deadly for those in the oldest groups I suspect that C19 or a variants of it will replace flu as the primary winter killer. The vaccines looks to be much more effective than the flu vaccines but this is countered by easier infection so whether the numbers of deaths will be similar it is hard to say, especially since flu deaths historically are only really a best guess. Hopefully given time the general public will come to realise that anything up to 50k deaths each winter (assume NHS gets it's act together finally) is normal and nothing to worry about, otherwise we will be locked down every winter and deaths will be even higher.

Nobody is suggesting lockdowns will keep happening.

The reason for current lockdowns is to damp down infection until enough people have been vaccinated.
 
Look at the infection rates in places where they didn't lockdown
There is nowhere that has not taken significant non pharmaceutical interventions.

Sweden may not have had mandatory restrictions, but there were still restrictions.
 
Yes but Covid can kill or seriously damage people who are vulnerable.

And there are millions of such people living with chronic conditions.

Do you think a 50 year old with diabetes should die?
Do you think somebody with a kidney transplant should die?
Do you think somebody with a chronic lung condition like COPD should die?

There are so any of such people they can't be identified or protected......which is why no herd immunity advocate can give any answer to how they think these people can be protected.
 
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Ah "let rip", another lockdown fanatic favourite! Yes asking those who are particularly vulnerable to the virus to shield is really letting rip isn't it?

I think lockdowns are totally pointless and massively damaging once a virus has spread which it has
Apologies Selwyn if my attempt to summarise your view in one word did not capture it as you would have preferred.

I am unfamiliar with the precise definition of a lockdown fanatic but if believing that following the advice of the vast majority of the medical and scientific community rather than the ramblings of keyboard warriors captures it I am happy to wear the t shirt.

Do stay safe as I spoke with my sister last night who is usually a midwife but is currently nursing Covid patients. That chat reinforced my view that this isn’t just a flu virus that only the elderly should be concerned about. Nonetheless I respect you may have a different opinion.
 
There is nowhere that has not taken significant non pharmaceutical interventions.

Sweden may not have had mandatory restrictions, but there were still restrictions.

And that is fine to have some degree of restriction and advice. It is not fine to destroy business', jobs and schools. It really isn't.

So much of this current "wave" is getting mixed in with other normal respiratory problems.
 
Selwyn, for goodness sake go and google this, because you are WRONG.

How many times do I have to repeat it?

Why are you unable to learn?

Why do you dogmatically repeat the same thing which is untrue?



Links that confirm Covid is NOT seasonal.

1. WHO. "From the evidence so far, the COVID-19 virus can be transmitted in ALL AREAS, including areas with hot and humid weather. Regardless of climate, adopt protective measures if you live in, or travel to an area reporting COVID-19"

2 healthcare in Europe: "Researchers predict that COVID-19 will likely become seasonal, waning in the summer and prevalent in the winter. But, only once herd immunity is achieved through natural infection or vaccinations"

3. Nature.com: "Researchers say it’s too early in the COVID-19 pandemic to say whether SARS-CoV-2 will become a seasonal virus"

You will see eventually that is is seasonal now, its so blindingly obvious. We are seeing a classic gompertz curve now.

Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that. And those who are not immune are overwhelmingly likely not to become too ill.
 
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Yes but Covid can kill or seriously damage people who are vulnerable.

And there are millions of such people living with chronic conditions.

Do you think a 50 year old with diabetes should die?
Do you think somebody with a kidney transplant should die?
Do you think somebody with a chronic lung condition like COPD should die?

There are so any of such people they can't be identified or protected......which is why no herd immunity advocate can give any answer to how they think these people can be protected.

No I think they should shield themselves as much as possible. I don't think we should stop children going to school or destroy business' to get there. Why? Because we need money to be able to help those vulnerable people

You are wilfully ignoring the harms of lockdown.

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And that is fine to have some degree of restriction and advice. It is not fine to destroy business', jobs and schools. It really isn't

So you think the best route would be to have minimum lockdown.....with schools etc open.

that would mean infection rates would keep going up....resulting in lockdown lasting longer with more hospital admissions.


By the way....school closures work
"recent evidence has been in favour of the importance of this NPI28,29; school closures in the United States have been found to reduce COVID-19 incidence and mortality by about 60%"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0
 
You will see eventually that is is seasonal now, its so blindingly obvious. We are seeing a classic gompertz curve now.

Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that. And those who are not immune are overwhelmingly likely not to become too ill.

Selwyn please please please can you stop posting opinions presented as facts.


Why do you insist on claiming Covid is now seasonal when I've posted evidence from scientists that says it is not.

Here is yet another quote for you:

"We hypothesized that COVID-19 will continue to circulate year-round until herd immunity is achieved.

In your research you stated that COVID-19 could become a seasonal virus but only when herd immunity is reached. Why is this?
As population immunity builds up, the transmission rate of the virus will drop making it more susceptible to environmental factors that govern seasonality."
 
On a more positive, if somewhat flippant note, I see the new Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been approved. Much as a dislike Boris, at least we can be reasonably confident that he won't be trying to take credit for this development. Imagine if Trump and Trump had come up with a cure...
 
Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that. And those who are not immune are overwhelmingly likely not to become too ill.

Most people are not immune.....10 to 12 million have had Covid. That's not "most"



Sage says

Covid-19 cases in the UK remain "dangerously high" with the latest reproduction number, or R value, estimated to be between 0.7 to 1.1, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) said
ITV 29th Jan 2021 Covid remains 'dangerously high' with latest R value in UK between 0.7 and 1.1 | ITV News
 
You will see eventually that is is seasonal now, its so blindingly obvious. We are seeing a classic gompertz curve now.

Most people are immune anyway. The data shows that. And those who are not immune are overwhelmingly likely not to become too ill.

The second wave isn't a gompertz curve at all.

A gompertz curve is a matamatical description of a death rate within a population from 0 -100.

It does not describe a wave of a pandemic.

Cheers James
 
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