How would you rate the UK's handling of this pandemic?

[Droogs]

no Bob it is just an irreverant and flippant remark, though who knows ...

 

[Terry - Somerset]

2/3 weeks or 12 weeks - from a public health perspective if the latter gives over 50% of the benefit compared to the former it is no contest.

Ask yourself (best Clint Eastwood style) "do you feel lucky punk". How would you feel if you were one of the 50% not vaccinated because the rollout stuck to the original 2/3 week second ***.

As far as breaking the rules - I will assess my own risk and that of the community. Right now the government are being evasive - but in 3/4 weeks they should have enough data to understand:

• vaccine effectiveness in practice noting that it takes a few weeks for resistance to develop
• the extent of virus transmission post vaccine.

By middle/end of February, a very material virus related change aside, people will increasingly act on their assessment risk and simply ignore restrictions - in particular the vaccinated and the young.

Lockdown is effective when only a small number push the envelope. Policing restrictions will be impossible when millions are prepared to simply ignore the rules.

 

[julianf]

2/3 weeks or 12 weeks - from a public health perspective if the latter gives over 50% of the benefit compared to the former it is no contest.

The concern about binning the antibiotics when you start feeling better is not so much about you getting ill again, but about what you are trying to kill off becoming resilliant.

Again, that is a significant reason why so many antibiotics are becoming useless in so many treatments.

That's antibiotics. Which humanity has already largely diminished the effectiveness of due to misuse.

The concern is that, if the vaccine for covid is misused in a similar way, then, in a similar way, it's effectiveness, for humanity in general, not just those on our little island, will be diminished.

That is what other countries, looking at the UK's behaviour, are concerned about.

 

[Woody2Shoes]

So that'smy point really Jake, we seem to have had 2 mutations or more in fairly quick space of time, what if we get a resistant strain. Do we keep locking down forever.

Resistant may not be the right word, but I'm sure you all understand my drift.

Bob - we've had thousands of different mutations/variants (difficult to quantify because most countries have less widely deployed technology than the UK does to analyse the genetic information in the viral material). Most have little or no effect. Those variants that manage to perpetuate themselves - because they can 'outcompete' (in a Darwinian sense) other variants (by being slightly more easy to transmit, for eample) become 'dominant' but regional variations exist over time.

Whether or not existing vaccines (coupled with the existing immunity in everybody's immune systems) can continue to stop people getting seriously ill is unknowable. What is knowable is that the vaccines can be "tweaked" to take account of genetic mutations in the virus within months not years - just like we do with the flu vaccine every year. It's thought that the flu virus mutations primarily in the far east where humans, pigs and ducks live in each others' ordure large numbers - the virus moves between these species, but of course new variations can pop up wherever a virus starts replicating in a "host".

The whole point of "lockdown"-type measures is to try and keep a lid on the speed of transmission between people - so that the proportion made seriously ill by the virus at any one time do not overburden/break our health care system (bearing in mind that we all need a functioning healthcare system).

We may need more lockdown-type measures in future if we need to buy time to vaccinate people without blowing up our healthcare system - if new variants arise which are dangerous and are not sufficiently curbed by the general levels of immunity (whe) but they shouldn't be nearly as bad as we've had so far - especially as the new mRNA vaccines like the Pfized/Biontech represent genuine technological progress.

The concern about binning the antibiotics when you start feeling better is not so much about you getting ill again, but about what you are trying to kill off becoming resilliant.

Again, that is a significant reason why so many antibiotics are becoming useless in so many treatments.

That's antibiotics. Which humanity has already largely diminished the effectiveness of due to misuse.

The concern is that, if the vaccine for covid is misused in a similar way, then, in a similar way, it's effectiveness, for humanity in general, not just those on our little island, will be diminished.

That is what other countries, looking at the UK's behaviour, are concerned about.

Sorry, I think you've misunderstood...

 

[doctor Bob]

The concern about binning the antibiotics when you start feeling better is not so much about you getting ill again, but about what you are trying to kill off becoming resilliant.

Again, that is a significant reason why so many antibiotics are becoming useless in so many treatments.

That's antibiotics. Which humanity has already largely diminished the effectiveness of due to misuse.

The concern is that, if the vaccine for covid is misused in a similar way, then, in a similar way, it's effectiveness, for humanity in general, not just those on our little island, will be diminished.

That is what other countries, looking at the UK's behaviour, are concerned about.

I see your point but can't help but think in a pandemic I'd rather have a bit of thinking outside the box than standard procedure by everyone, otherwise we maybe wasting valuable time.

 

[Noel]

Reports in the German press that the AZ-Ox vaccine has only 8% effectiveness in the over 65s. Surely trial data would have flagged this up?

 

[Jameshow]

On an allied note anyone noticed the large discrepancy between the sexes in today's evaluation of job roles in relation to covid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55795608
What stuck me was the mortality difference between the sexes.

Had it been the other way around or Bame there would have been an uproar or inquiry.

Genes? Diet?.....comorbidities....?????

Cheers James

 

[doctor Bob]

Reports in the German press that the AZ-Ox vaccine has only 8% effectiveness in the over 65s. Surely trial data would have flagged this up?

You would have thought so, total disaster if that's correct.

 

[julianf]

Sorry, I think you've misunderstood...

Possibly. Could you explain to me the international concern raised at the UK's poor regard for the recommended time scale between doses?

I think it unlikley that anyone else really cares how the UK mismanages their business unless it has implications outside of our shores, however, my parallel with antibiotic resistance may be inaccurate.

 

[RobinBHM]

I see your point but can't help but think in a pandemic I'd rather have a bit of thinking outside the box than standard procedure by everyone, otherwise we maybe wasting valuable time.

I think the decision was prompted by the Kent variant.

Yes it's a bit of a gamble, but to me the best option.......we just don't have the time to faff about waiting for 100% certainty of data from extensive studies.

 

[Noel]

Reports in the German press that the AZ-Ox vaccine has only 8% effectiveness in the over 65s. Surely trial data would have flagged this up?

German press now saying that EMA will not approve the AZ-Ox vaccine for over 65s. There were reports in December that the trials did not involve over 55s when the half dose first *** was used.
Whatever the case is, once any sort of controversy becomes public knowledge it'll only make take-up for that vaccine more difficult and will give the anti vaxxers more ammunition. Tough days ahead for AZ.

 

[Nigel Burden]

Reports in the German press that the AZ-Ox vaccine has only 8% effectiveness in the over 65s. Surely trial data would have flagged this up?

Isn't Pfizer Biontec joint US German. Or is that just me being cynical?

Nigel.

 

[Rorschach]

828,000 extra unemployed I see today, that is with the furlough scheme still ongoing. I dread to think what those figures will be when furlough ends.

 

[Billy_wizz]

Isn't Pfizer Biontec joint US German. Or is that just me being cynical?

Nigel.

Yes I believe so

 

[Billy_wizz]

2/3 weeks or 12 weeks - from a public health perspective if the latter gives over 50% of the benefit compared to the former it is no contest.

Ask yourself (best Clint Eastwood style) "do you feel lucky punk". How would you feel if you were one of the 50% not vaccinated because the rollout stuck to the original 2/3 week second ***.

As far as breaking the rules - I will assess my own risk and that of the community. Right now the government are being evasive - but in 3/4 weeks they should have enough data to understand:

• vaccine effectiveness in practice noting that it takes a few weeks for resistance to develop
• the extent of virus transmission post vaccine.

By middle/end of February, a very material virus related change aside, people will increasingly act on their assessment risk and simply ignore restrictions - in particular the vaccinated and the young.

Lockdown is effective when only a small number push the envelope. Policing restrictions will be impossible when millions are prepared to simply ignore the rules.

As I recall more will die from not getting the first dose than will die because of a delayed second dose and the delayed dose will make it 1 or 2% less effective but can't find where I read it now

 

[Chris152]

Reports in the German press that the AZ-Ox vaccine has only 8% effectiveness in the over 65s. Surely trial data would have flagged this up?

'A later statement by the German health ministry suggested the report had mixed up the efficacy rate for over-65s with the number of seniors involved in AstraZeneca’s trials...
“At first sight it appears that two things have been muddled in the reports,” said the statement. “Around 8% of participants in the AstraZeneca efficacy trials were aged between 56 and 69 years old, only three to four per cent were over 70. This does not result in an efficacy of only 8% among seniors.” '
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-efficacy-reports

 

[Noel]

'A later statement by the German health ministry suggested the report had mixed up the efficacy rate for over-65s with the number of seniors involved in AstraZeneca’s trials...
“At first sight it appears that two things have been muddled in the reports,” said the statement. “Around 8% of participants in the AstraZeneca efficacy trials were aged between 56 and 69 years old, only three to four per cent were over 70. This does not result in an efficacy of only 8% among seniors.” '
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-efficacy-reports

Saw similar reports this morning in the German press, hopefully there is no truth in the matter although I did see something about data differences between what the MHRA and what the German health ministry has received. EMA due to decide on approval/CMA on Friday I think.

 

[John Brown]

I can't be bothered with any of this, except to say that the new thinking re. antibiotics seems to be, stop taking them when you feel better. I have no axe to grind, just sharing what I read.

 

[selectortone]

Saw similar reports this morning in the German press, hopefully there is no truth in the matter although I did see something about data differences between what the MHRA and what the German health ministry has received. EMA due to decide on approval/CMA on Friday I think.

Well, that was a completely unnecessary cause for concern for us old fogies - on top of everything else.. Those tw*ts at that German newspaper should be ashamed of themselves.

 

[Rorschach]

Well, that was a completely unnecessary cause for concern for us old fogies - on top of everything else.. Those tw*ts at that German newspaper should be ashamed of themselves.

Over reacting, like your sig line