Debt and money

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In double entry accounting you always create two accounts simultaneously, a credit and debit. The theory is that transfers in the system don't, of themselves, create or destroy money. But the system still records profit and loss, as funds move from customer accounts to a 'profit account' of some sort (or creditor accounts increase, going the other way). So the overall amounts in the system change.

When a bank makes a loan, it is not required to have 100% of that amount covered by funds on deposit with it. In reality it only needs to have about 10% of the loan actually covered by funds available to it (I may have the exact amount wrong, and it fluctuates as the BofE set the figure, IIRC).

In double-entry all it has to do is create, say, an account called "General Mortgages", and another one called "Loan account for Joe Bloggs". To represent a loan, one goes positive and the other negative, by exactly the same amount, thus setting up the debt.

So as far as the system is concerned, no money is "created" as the two numbers cancel out, BUT if the currency was broad beans, rather than numbers in a book, it couldn't be done, as the bank's sack of beans, given it by bean depositors (savers), wouldn't hold enough beans to hand out to everyone wanting a mortgage denominated in beans.

This is what makes it "fiat" money - it's imaginary, and the system is based, ultimately on honour. The miserable fact though is that the bank diesn't have a lien on an imaginary pile of beans, it has one on a real-world property. So, if the debt isn't repaid and the bank forecloses, it wins a REAL house in exchange, on the basis of creating money from thin air. This is one reason why mortgage lenders foreclose and sell off property at deep discounts sometimes: in the real world they are winning. And they can still offset the bad debt "loss" against any trading profits!

Shakespeare's maxim, "Never a debtor nor a lender be." is arguably a very wise one. A large proportion of "economic growth" is actually inflationary, meaning it's actually a drop in worth of the currency as the quantity of 'money in circulation' increases, rather than an increase in the absolute value of the country.

As has already been said by Mike, our indebtedness is staggering. It is extremely hard to get an accurate assessment of public debt as the ONS have an annoying habit of parking politically tricky stuff in hard-to-find categories. So, for example, local authority pensions obligations, nuclear decommissioning, some of the bank crash fallout, and re-nationalizing Railtrack, have all at various times been made hard to find in the numbers, because they've caused successive governments embarrassment.

My own back of stamp calculation puts it around 130,000 quid for every average, properly legal, British family. Every single one. And that number does NOT include private debt - mortgages, loans, hire-purchase on cars or household goods, credit cards and overdrafts.

Simply servicing that debt - paying the interest due on public borrowing - accounts for something like one third of all our tax take. I'm being generous with that number, too.

Politicians also deliberately confuse deficit with debt.

Debt is just debt. The deficit is the rate at which our debt is increasing, year-on-year. They haven't even managed to slow that down much! Not only are we not getting rid of our public debt, we haven't even managed to slow the rate it's getting bigger (I forget the numbers, but it's tens of millions every week).

It's also to be seen in the context that the size of the welfare state is increasing, however you measure it: government is delivering more services to more citizens and the tax take as a proportion of GDP has risen again from the lows of the Thatcher-Major period (which themselves were huge compared to pre-WWI levels).

And whatever you think the 'inflation rate' is this week, we're still actually borrowing money, at real interest rates, to give away in "aid" to other countries.

The more I dig into this stuff the more dishonest and crazy it all seems to be.

E. (sorry - grumpy as there was no brown bread for toast this morning, only cardboard!)
 
It amazes me that there are millions of people who dont realise the banks create money out of thin air
 
themackay":2dggm0x1 said:
It amazes me that there are millions of people who dont realise the banks create money out of thin air

If banks can just create money out of thin air whenever they like, why did Lehmann Brothers go bust? Why did RBS go insolvent to the point that government decided to use public money to bail it out? Why did Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley go to the wall?
 
Don't know. Probably because they need a transaction to take place before they can create money and their assets were all tied up in houses that were fast losing value? I know Bradford and Bingley went big on the liar loans.
I'm guessing. 'O' level economics here.
 
Cheshirechappie":nii1ntix said:
themackay":nii1ntix said:
It amazes me that there are millions of people who dont realise the banks create money out of thin air

If banks can just create money out of thin air whenever they like, why did Lehmann Brothers go bust? Why did RBS go insolvent to the point that government decided to use public money to bail it out? Why did Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley go to the wall?

Because they were very bad at doing what they did. And greedy. And arguably dishonest.

Google "sub-prime mortgages" and "Derivatives".

The banking system is a mess. There's a concept known as "moral hazard" which is essential to ensure lending is properly priced, and that people who take big risks are properly accountable for them.

Say I take a big risk for a big return, fine; fair enough. But if my risk goes bad, I'm the person who should lose out, not people who didn't want the big risk and didn't put any money in (and wouldn't have got any profit had it gone good). It's what should make investment bankers be properly cautious.

When Brown/Darling did the huge bailouts, they basically ignored moral hazard, and we have a very big mess in consequence (that's not a political point as such, but an economic one).

Furthermore, If I lie to you about an investment, so I can get your money, that's fraud - a criminal matter, not merely an ethical one. Unquestionably, that happened, yet hardly any bankers have been criminally prosecuted (Bernie Madoff in the USA being a notable exception, and arguably a token gesture on the part of US prosecutors).

Because of the low interest rates and property boom at the moment (albeit in London and the South East), the seeds are being sown for it all to happen all over again real soon now, only bigger and badder than last time.
 
Eric - I agree with you. However, my question was aimed at those saying "banks just create money out of thin air". Banks create fiat currency - fine, no argument about that. That's been the case (I think) since the 1696 Bank of England Act (sometimes called the Tonnage Act, for some reason). However, the point is that they can only create it under certain circumstances, otherwise they'd never go bust. If their sums didn't add up, they could just create some more electronic money to cover the difference, and we know this doesn't happen. Ergo, banks can't just create money out of thin air whenever they feel like it; there has to be more to it than that.

Mike S - I did try to watch that video, bearing in mind that my knowledge of finance and economics is far from perfect. However, the whole thing, whilst very slick, just screamed 'bias' and 'political agenda', so I had to give up watching it. Do you know of any other basic guides that are politically neutral?
 
Cheshirechappie":ejjp4g4g said:
themackay":ejjp4g4g said:
It amazes me that there are millions of people who dont realise the banks create money out of thin air

If banks can just create money out of thin air whenever they like, why did Lehmann Brothers go bust? Why did RBS go insolvent to the point that government decided to use public money to bail it out? Why did Northern Rock and Bradford and Bingley go to the wall?

They need our promise/signature.

We have been unwitting accomplices but I think that is changing. Slowly maybe.
 
Sporky McGuffin":32ekd9uy said:
I'm an engineer, not an economist, so bear with me if this is a grotesque misunderstanding; surely in the example you've cited, no money has been created overall? The asset and liability cancel each other out, no?

An evil banker type (tm) once tried to explain to me that money now has value rooted in its ability to be used to pay taxes. Is that about right?

Yes, the A & L cancel each other out but that's a function of all accounting - double entry bookkeeping requires the two to balance. To try to address that further, plus MIGNALs point:

MIGNAL":32ekd9uy said:
Wouldn't interest be payable on that loan? Which requires money, so it must come from somewhere.

Think of the transaction as being conducted in cash. Customer 1 has borrowed £5,000 - bank has an A&L of £5,000. But if Customer1 draws the £5k balance of his account in cash then the bank's liability - Cust1s account with £5k balance - goes to zero. To balance that accounting entry the bank must create another liability or reduce it's assets by £5k. It does the latter - it's stock of cash (an asset) is reduced by £5k. Aha, so new money has been created I hear you cry!

You then need to think where did that stock of cash come from. I don't think anyone disputes that there is insuffificient cash (notes and coins) to cover the value of all assets. Economists call it M0, add in other forms of money and you get M1, M2 etc - see here. So, if the demand for cash exceeds the current supply then it needs to be created. The Govt prints it - and makes a tidy profit (call seignorage) doing so. Not sure of the exact figures but say a £5 note costs 5p to print but the Govt receives £5 in value, it's a very profitable business!

In times of yore that couldn't have happened; a bank note was an IOU for precious metals deposited with the bank e.g. present a £5 note to a bank and you would receive an equivalent value in gold (or silver). A residue of that system still remains if you look at your notes - they bear the legend 'I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of...'. But I digress.

To go back to MIGNALs point about interest. Yes, interest is payable - so a prudent bank will create an asset, say £1,000 called 'Interest Due' and a matching liability, say £1,000 called 'Unrealised Interest Gain'. When Customer1 has bought his widget (say) for £5,000, added value to it, and sold it for say £7,000 then he can repay his debt (£5,000 principal and £1,000 interest) and the bank cancels it's A&Ls but has a surplus, or profit, of £1,000 which is recognised as Reserves (retained profits) - it's balance sheet has grown by £1,000, meaning it can do more business - everyone's a winner.

It will be realised that debt is spending future earnings - as other posters have noted. Whether those earnings are by trade (widgets) or salary, if you borrow then you are agreeing to reduce your future income - because part of it must be used to service the debt. On a much bigger scale this is what happened when the Govt created Pensions (c.1919) and the NHS (c.1947) and the Welfate state in general. It agreed that the Govt would fund all payments for pensions, NHS, dole etc to the then current population in return for taxation receipts from the current and future populations, any gap being bridged by debt (Gilts or other Govt debt instruments). That's fine when the ratio of workers/taxpayers to recipients is high but dangerous when demographics change e.g. our much higher ratio of older non-working people to young workers (a big porblem for Japan, and others, including the UK) - the burden of Govt spending falls on fewer earners. A more personal analogy would be if a working couple took out a mortgage and then one subsequently lost his/her job - suddenly those monthly repayments are less affordable.

I appreciate this will raise further questions, like 'where did the widget buyer get his money'? The essence of it is that providing economies continue to grow, then the ponzi scheme can continue. This is partly why Govts are keen to massage figures e.g. include the Drugs trade and prostitution in GDP figures - it gives the illusion of growth (and reduces the debt to GDP ratio - a kew metric in assessing a Nation's health).

One final point. Why wasn't money created to bail out Lehman's etc.? Lots of different reasons but from a 'money' perspective, if you create (print) too much you get inflation which can lead to hyperinflation, as occurred in Weimar Germany (1922/3) and, more recently, Zimbabwe. Too much and people lose faith in its ability to act as a store of value and just spend it immediately (creating more inflation) or find alternative uses - toilet paper or fuel.

Not sure if that will help or just muddy the waters more :)
 
Cheshirechappie":10qv8ilu said:
Mike S - I did try to watch that video, bearing in mind that my knowledge of finance and economics is far from perfect. However, the whole thing, whilst very slick, just screamed 'bias' and 'political agenda', so I had to give up watching it. Do you know of any other basic guides that are politically neutral?

I sympathise - another of my bugbears (apologies to Bugbear) is propaganda/bias etc in the media and it's extremely difficult to find simple unbiased information. I often find I have to endure two extremes e.g. USA media and RT (Russia Today) to get to the truth in the middle! Whilst not completely unbiased, try the Hidden Secrets of Money by Mike Maloney. Whilst not a fan of his speaking style (somewhat evangelical) and bias (trading precious metals) there's a core 'truth' to what he says - and it's broken down into shorter episodes than the film I first posted.

I see Eric also posted (at 10.53) , pretty much saying the same as i did but using beans instead of Gold :lol: Sorry, i hadn't worked my way through all the posts.
 
Eric The Viking":27bhiwur said:
Because of the low interest rates and property boom at the moment (albeit in London and the South East), the seeds are being sown for it all to happen all over again real soon now, only bigger and badder than last time.

=D> =D>

Which goes to my point about understanding where we are and how these problems have been dealt with in the past and might be dealt with in the future - possibly the near future (think Cyprus, Greece, Ireland...).
 
Sporky McGuffin":1yc6cozd said:
Are beans fungible?

Yes, at gas mark 4, according to Mary Berry :lol:

A lot of money in the past wasn't 'exactly' fungible e.g. sea shells, salt, but near enough to be acceptable.
 
Mike.S":zjg4mbxh said:
I see Eric also posted (at 10.53) , pretty much saying the same as i did but using beans instead of Gold :lol: Sorry, i hadn't worked my way through all the posts.

No biggie at all... but at least my way, if all else fails, you can still eat your own assets!

E.
(wondering if that's even more disturbing than anything else so far...)
 
Mike.S":1l468n93 said:
In times of yore that couldn't have happened; a bank note was an IOU for precious metals deposited with the bank e.g. present a £5 note to a bank and you would receive an equivalent value in gold (or silver). A residue of that system still remains if you look at your notes - they bear the legend 'I promise to pay the bearer on demand the sum of...'.

It says on a £20 note blah blah promises to pay the bearer on demand the sum of twenty pounds.

But what are they going to give you,? Two £10 notes, four £5 notes or a different £20
 
Mike.S":pzzet2gh said:
Cheshirechappie":pzzet2gh said:
Mike S - I did try to watch that video, bearing in mind that my knowledge of finance and economics is far from perfect. However, the whole thing, whilst very slick, just screamed 'bias' and 'political agenda', so I had to give up watching it. Do you know of any other basic guides that are politically neutral?

I sympathise - another of my bugbears (apologies to Bugbear) is propaganda/bias etc in the media and it's extremely difficult to find simple unbiased information. I often find I have to endure two extremes e.g. USA media and RT (Russia Today) to get to the truth in the middle! Whilst not completely unbiased, try the Hidden Secrets of Money by Mike Maloney. Whilst not a fan of his speaking style (somewhat evangelical) and bias (trading precious metals) there's a core 'truth' to what he says - and it's broken down into shorter episodes than the film I first posted.

I see Eric also posted (at 10.53) , pretty much saying the same as i did but using beans instead of Gold :lol: Sorry, i hadn't worked my way through all the posts.

Thanks for that, Mike!

Like you, I have a bit of a jaundiced view of much of the media. At least when one reads the papers, one has a fair idea where their biases lay, and can take account of it, but ii is sometimes wise to search around for background information; surprising how often journalists - even supposedly reputable ones - appear to either ignore or be in ignorance of basic facts.

One thing about this does slightly puzzle me, which is that those campaigning about 'debt' tend to be regarded as being well to the left of the political spectrum. However, those in government most keen to increase 'debt' (weasel phrases like 'borrowing to invest') tend to be on the left, and those most keen to reduce the rate of debt increase (who you'd think would be natural allies of the campaigners first mentioned) tend to lean to the right of the political spectrum. Most odd; the Browns and Corbyns of this world ('people's quantitative easing - ha!) are doing more to make the 'evil banksters' richer than the likes of Osborne and Callmedave, who you'd think were the banksters' allies.

PS - I did enjoy Eric's posting of the Bird and Fortune sub-prime crisis sketch. Very funny - and very close to the truth, I suspect.
 
Remember its not the politicians that actually run the country they are all the banksters allies
 
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