Coronavirus

[Rorschach]

The percentage dying is unimportant. It's the rate at which the dying and near dying present at A&E which is the critical thing with this disease. If like flue it kills say 20,000 over the course of a winter, then you can react to it in the same sort of way you react to flu. If, however, those same 20,000, plus the near dying who survive, all turn up at A&E in the same fortnight, then not only will many more of them die, but so will lots of the other people who would be in A&E otherwise for all the normal reasons. When the government talks about protecting the NHS and flattening the curve, they really are meaning precisely what they say. They want the NHS to be able to cope, and if everyone turned up at A&E in the same fortnight, then the outcome would be like Italy.

I understand that, and I agree this is worse than flu in the sense that it does seem to spread much more easily, probably because you are contagious before symptoms show. Whether it is actually more deadly than flu remains to be seen but if hospitals are overwhelmed then the deaths would be higher than necessary. I am just not certain that these extreme measures are completely necessary to flatten the curve. The problem is we will never know, I just hope that in doing what we are doing we haven't made things worse for years or even decades to come.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

The initial strategy was to get to 60% infected (and hopefully recovered) to achieve herd immunity. This means in the UK abour 40m infected out of a population of 66m.

We don't know how many are asymptomatic or simply deal with a mild case at home - but assuming:

- only 10% require hospital treatment (4m)
- and of those 30% require ITU (1.2m)
- each ITU stay is 5 days after which you are out of trouble (or deceased)
- the number of ITU bed days will equal 6m
- if spread over 3 months (90 days) this is an average of ITU 67000 beds
- if spread over a year is an average of 17000 ITU beds

This is very crude and takes no account of peaks in demand. But what we know very clearly is that existing ITU capacity is utterly inadequate to deal with a need for 67000 beds, although 17000 may be achievable with rapid expansion of facilities and deferral of all but critical care for other ailments.

We may very likely have at least a partial lockdown for a year or more bringing constraints on freedom of movement, businesses not restarting, bankruptcies, job losses, failing economy etc. Most of us will also be close to the loss of relatives and friends.

At what point will sentiment change from "shielding the vulnerable" to reducing the economic price - saving lives costs money. I can only hope that improvements in treatment and possibly a vaccine will be available 12 months from now.

 

[Bodgers]

The percentage dying is unimportant. It's the rate at which the dying and near dying present at A&E which is the critical thing with this disease. If like flue it kills say 20,000 over the course of a winter, then you can react to it in the same sort of way you react to flu. If, however, those same 20,000, plus the near dying who survive, all turn up at A&E in the same fortnight, then not only will many more of them die, but so will lots of the other people who would be in A&E otherwise for all the normal reasons. When the government talks about protecting the NHS and flattening the curve, they really are meaning precisely what they say. They want the NHS to be able to cope, and if everyone turned up at A&E in the same fortnight, then the outcome would be like Italy.

Similar point made on the last Medlife Crises YouTube video. The curve he showed mapping the average risk of dying in a year, across age groups, against COVID-19 deaths mapped quite well, but the point being that with the virus it is all happening in a short period.

 

[Blackswanwood]

I ordered 3000 laptops at the start of last week to enable home working.

They arrived on Friday, had our software installed over the weekend are now all allocated and being used. I asked the project team today where they had come from - manufactured and shipped from China within 48hours.

Looks like China is getting back to normal but also felt a bit ironic!

 

[D_W]

The initial strategy was to get to 60% infected (and hopefully recovered) to achieve herd immunity. This means in the UK abour 40m infected out of a population of 66m.

We don't know how many are asymptomatic or simply deal with a mild case at home - but assuming:

- only 10% require hospital treatment (4m)
- and of those 30% require ITU (1.2m)
- each ITU stay is 5 days after which you are out of trouble (or deceased)
- the number of ITU bed days will equal 6m
- if spread over 3 months (90 days) this is an average of ITU 67000 beds
- if spread over a year is an average of 17000 ITU beds

This is very crude and takes no account of peaks in demand. But what we know very clearly is that existing ITU capacity is utterly inadequate to deal with a need for 67000 beds, although 17000 may be achievable with rapid expansion of facilities and deferral of all but critical care for other ailments.

We may very likely have at least a partial lockdown for a year or more bringing constraints on freedom of movement, businesses not restarting, bankruptcies, job losses, failing economy etc. Most of us will also be close to the loss of relatives and friends.

At what point will sentiment change from "shielding the vulnerable" to reducing the economic price - saving lives costs money. I can only hope that improvements in treatment and possibly a vaccine will be available 12 months from now.

Antibody tests are apparently being made in droves now. Not in numbers that we can all take them, but presumably, the hope is that those with antibodies can be found and told "go back to doing what you do".

No clue now that's implemented, though. temporary tattoo?

 

[Cheshirechappie]

I ordered 3000 laptops at the start of last week to enable home working.

They arrived on Friday, had our software installed over the weekend are now all allocated and being used. I asked the project team today where they had come from - manufactured and shipped from China within 48hours.

Looks like China is getting back to normal but also felt a bit ironic!

Let's hope none of those laptops have viruses.

(Sorry - couldn't resist!)

 

[Chris152]

Listening to Channel 4 news just now...

'We're taking expert scientific advice...' has become the stock mantra for ministers answering challenging questions from mainstream media about why non-essential workers are being allowed to work (decorators, construction etc.) - contrary to the pleads coming from front-line specialist medical staff working in nhs hospitals for all but essential workers to stay at home.
Does that mean that the expert scientific advice is that construction/ buildings work of any sort is fine to go ahead? I'd like my living room white, I'm sick of magnolia.

eta - what I mean to say is, I'm sick of hearing ministers talking utter nonsense at a time of national crisis such as the one we're going through.

 

[MikeG.]

What's your problem with people working, Chris, so long as they follow the social distancing edicts? People have been told they can carry on working.

 

[Chris152]

It's incoherent, Mike. Stay at home to stop the spread of the virus - unless you are doing essential work. Or unless you're you're doing non-essential work (changing the colour of my walls, for example) that is arbitrarily designated fine.

 

[Steve Maskery]

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense. B&Q and Screwfix are deemed essential, but we are all being told to stay at home except for essential supplies and medical stuff. I find it difficult to equate a tin of Dulux with Necessity.
I bought some timber last week, but it is the dregs and I want to return it and get from new stock. The timberyard remains open (at least as of yesterday). But what am I going to tell a police officer who stops me with a roof-load of Unsorted? "It's OK, Officer I really have to make some doors".

 

[MikeG.]

You guys are confusing two different issues. Shops have been closed, other than essential ones. Cinemas, pubs, restaurants etc have been closed, as well as schools. But other businesses haven't been divided into "essential" and "non-essential". That's only for shops. People can carry on going to work for other businesses. It's fair enough to have a go at businesses which aren't doing as they're told, but I'm pretty sanguine about people carrying on doing what they've been told they're allowed to do, so long as they do it in the way they've been told, which involves keeping away from other people.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

It's a bit of a fine line between saving lives by lock-down, and causing severe hardship and premature deaths by trashing the economy. Gummint is trying to balance on that tightrope. No easy 'right' answers to that conundrum.

 

[lurker]

MikeG,

Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.

No.

I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.

Mentioned this to my practice nurse wife and she pointed to this

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

 

[Chris152]

I think I'm saying that the advice doesn't add up in practice. For example, today more pictures were shown of a crowded underground and train stations. People going to work because they can't work from home but doing non-essential work (changing the colour of people's living rooms, for example) crowded into the same space as nhs workers who we need to stay healthy. Meanwhile, advice is to stay 2m apart.
I wrote elsewhere in the forum today about builders working across the road from me. They were building something in a neighbour's house, to-ing and fro-ing, working close together (no choice given what they were lifting) and so on through the day. meanwhile, after I've taken the dog for a walk, I'm grounded, sat looking at these fellas getting on with their non-essential work, driving back and forth with stuff and all that goes with it.
Are the decisions that permit this to proceed actually led by scientific advice? Because the reality seems to lead to flouting that advice.

 

[Chris152]

It's a bit of a fine line between saving lives by lock-down, and causing severe hardship and premature deaths by trashing the economy. Gummint is trying to balance on that tightrope. No easy 'right' answers to that conundrum.

I'd rather we'd gone for lock-down like those countries that now seem to be getting the virus under control. The economy's going to be trashed either way.

 

[MikeG.]

Well they haven't got permission to do that. They've specifically been told to keep 2 metres apart. If they can't do that, then they're breaking the rules. However, they aren't breaking the rules simply by being at work.

 

[Chris152]

Well they haven't got permission to do that. They've specifically been told to keep 2 metres apart. If they can't do that, then they're breaking the rules. However, they aren't breaking the rules simply by being at work.

But clearly, if the rules aren't working it's necessary to revisit/ strengthen the rules. Kind of like they did after the weekend when they realised people were going en masse to the parks etc. In another news report yesterday they showed the workers at Hinkley going about their business, too close together on site and crowded together in the canteen. This'll be happening up and down the country. Meanwhile, nhs specialists are begging people to stay at home.

 

[porker]

I think there can be some justification for keeping some places open like Screwfix et al. Thinking of emergency plumbers for example. A lot get their bits from these places and imagine a family where a toilet doesn't work or similar. Admit it is a sliding scale and painting the wall a different shade of grey probably isn't essential.
Hopefully to show I am taking this seriously myself, I have been isolated for 2 weeks now due to our office being closed due to a suspected CV case. My builder has had to stop leaving my house with no heating and limited electrics and this evening we had a call from the hospital that my MIL is seriously ill (not CV but life threatening). We can't go to the hospital and my landline has developed a fault where we can't make outgoing calls. I feel for all of those being seriously impacted right now. I'm glad I'm not having to make the difficult decisions. There are massive implications to any decision right now and I think its too simple to think there are any easy solutions.

 

[RogerS]

There are some huge inconsistencies. I'd anticipated the lockdown on Monday and ordered in stuff that I needed from MKM Builders Merchants. Delivery Tuesday. Never arrived. Some feeble excuse. Closing down for the time being. Trying to source from elsewhere....

Travis (with whom I have an account)...only delivering to certain key locations such as hospitals etc.
Jewsons...deliver anywhere but only for existing trade customers.
Dove's ...ditto
Charlton's...ditto
Wickes ....anywhere but their website is in meltdown. Seems to me that a lot of home workers are treating this as a paid three-week extra holiday.

Today ...MKM announce they are now open.. Bit late as I confess to telling them where they could shove their order.

 

[profchris]

The need to do something fairly drastic was obvious, just from the statistics from China and Italy. In both those countries, the epicentres where hospitals were overwhelmed had death rates of nearly 10% of diagnosed cases, whilst elsewhere in those countries the rates were around 1% (source: The Times late last week).

Once the rates of increase in diagnosed cases here followed the Wuhan and Lombardy curves, it was clear what would follow if no action was taken.

Whether the action was the right action, and how well it walks the tightrope between slowing the spread of coronavirus and causing recession (which will itself increase deaths though from different causes), we have no way of knowing until (probably) some years from now.

I do keep an eye out for encouraging news, as well as bad, and in the last few days have heard or read (sources: Times, New Scientist, BBC Radio 4):

a. The number of reported diagnoses and deaths in both Wuhan and Italy is dropping from their peak.

b. At least one respected academic scientist thinks it likely (based on modelling though) that most cases are asymptomatic and that as much as 50% of the UK population might already have been infected, in which case herd immunity is not far off.

There's no way of checking this last of course until test kits for antibodies are widely available. Some tests (D-W's might have been this kind) only detect those with active virus, not those with antibodies. I heard online today that the UK kits which are said to be arriving very soon detect antibodies, but that's not a checked source.

And apologies for not recalling precise sources, something which I normally can do. I have been working, and rather harder than normal. I'm responsible for the assessment and examination of 1,000+ students, which has required a certain amount of improvisation and re-invention. All I've achieved so far in wood is to cut and thickness several pairs of ukulele sides, and to destroy all but the current pair by trying to bend them to shape