Coronavirus

[Phil Pascoe]

I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I have too much to do, too, but I don't see myself achieving much if I die from the virus (high risk group here too). I admire your willingness to take one for the team, though.

We can't get rid of the virus before a year (vaccine development) or a few months (antiviral drug testing). We don't know positively if the herd immunity idea will work, but I think that actually it is our only chance. It can probably be delayed by the measures being introduced, and not overwhelming the NHS is required for us to have that chance. If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. The less vulnerable will contribute to the immunity pool without suffering many symptoms. If the vulnerable are isolated till the peak is passed (which is when herd immunity is a maximum) then we can mingle again with little risk (and with a health service that can cope again.

In case you think that I am supporting Boris and Co I think he and his gang are total twits. But the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser and their staffs are top-notch.

Herd immunity means everyone gets it. However if, as you point out, you can hide until everyone else has caught it and recovered, the virus is effectively gone. It does mean living in splendid isolation, which is much easier for some than for others.

I do think that "herd immunity" is a bit of newspeak which actually means "nothing can be done", but it is no worse than "bringing democracy", or "right to protect".

Someone needs to tell Roger that, unfortunately, he will be allowed to be in isolation along with his wife - it's not a golden opportunity to get rid of the trouble and strife. Sorry, but you can't have everything. The weekly"nurse" appointments will have to wait though...

 

[RogerS]

Well, if the news item I read is accurate, this imprisonment includes those with pre-existing medical conditions.

So if you need regular chemo.....Boris says 'Tough'.

So if you need regular dialysis ....Boris says 'Stay home and die'.

So if you're in, say, constant pain and need morphine injections ....Boris says 'Tough'.

And it's going to take a hell of a lot longer than four months to build up the herd immunity.

 

[Chris152]

'In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.'
and
'In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Our Pm's more like a Chamberlain seeking appeasement than a Churchill taking the fight to the enemy. Discuss.

ps 'The National Education Union has written to the prime minister to ask why the government has decided not to shut schools to help reduce the spread of the virus and asking for "fuller disclosure" of the models it has used during its decision-making process.'

 

[RogerS]

.... If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. ....

I don't think they put corpses in ICUs

Seriously, though, define 'most vulnerable'. I thought that that was those with an underlying medical condition which then makes sense. But what about those who are over-70 but don't have any underlying medical condition. Take no medication whatsoever ? What does imprisoning us achieve ?

 

[Andy Kev.]

'In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.'
and
'In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Our Pm's more like a Chamberlain seeking appeasement than a Churchill taking the fight to the enemy. Discuss.

The problem with a previously unknown situation is that conflicting opinions will always emerge. However, those in charge must settle on one analysis and implement one course of action as flexibly as they can so as to give themselves as much room for manouvre as possible.

You also have to bear in mind that political axes might be being ground under these circumstances. How many times in the past have we seen letters signed by x number of academics which have turned out to be resoundingly wrong (usually on matters of economics)?

Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.

 

[Just4Fun]

The really baffling one is flour for baking bread.

Now that one makes perfect sense to me. You can't really store fresh bread for very long but the flour to make your own has a much longer shelf life. To me it is a more sensible item to stock up on if you are planning on staying at home for a while (by choice or otherwise).

Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled.

I imagine the concern is not so much picking up the virus from the bread but picking it up from the people you encounter at the bakery or while traveling there.

 

[Marineboy]

I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.

 

[Chris152]

Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.

Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken?
As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.

 

[Droogs]

I made it into my local Tesco yesterday, first of going out since surgery last week really and the amount of emptiness of the shelves did surprise me a bit. But the thing that has made me actually have a bit of a giggle all evening was the fact that, yes, nearly all the flour was gone from the shop apart from a few bags of Strong Flour (just what I was after). I really do wish I could be a fly on the wall of some millenials house as they try to make bread with self raising flour (hammer)

 

[RogerS]

Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.

Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken?
As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.

Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water.

Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.

We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).

 

[Marineboy]

I don’t get this widespread aversion to experts, whether you call them academics or scientists. You wouldn’t get an elected politician to advise you on how to make a dovetailed drawer.

 

[Chris152]

Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water.

Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.

We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).

Can't be bothered communicating with you, Roger. Sorry.

 

[RogerS]

Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water.

Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.

We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).

Can't be bothered communicating with you, Roger. Sorry.

But you just did.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled

Places like Morrisons/Sainsbury's allow you to 'pick and mix' from open containers.

Even if there were no virus, I'd never use them but some people might just consider it safer. When I make bread, typically it's got 500g of flour in it and the results are eaten within a day. 10 bags of flour doesn't sound a lot if you're not going back to a supermarket any time soon.

.

I live in Germany where the situation, even in the supermarkets, is different. The bread is only handled by the staff and they either use tongs or, as in my local bakery this morning, wear disposable gloves. It's probably about as safe as you can reasonably get.

There is one exception: a chain where you go around the displays picking items as you go and pay at the till. I imagine that their business is suffering a bit.

 

[Andy Kev.]

Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.

Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken?
As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.

I'm not suggesting that people stop thinking or debating. It is however, a fact that this is a very rapidly spreading virus and therefore one course of action needs (needed) to be extremely quickly selected and implemented. Given that there is a fair range of options, the govt. acting on the advice of its scientific advisors, could do no more than weigh up the options and choose one.

The signatories of that letter are aware of the time constraints (I can't believe they are not aware) and know that their intervention is largely theoretical. I chose the term "academics" because of the example I went on to give. In any event, no scientist would deny that he/she is a kind of academic. If the word has become tainted, it is because of the activities of the clowns principally involved in the humanities and arts.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

For anyone who has bought more flour than they know what to do with, bear in mind that it will contain moth and weevil larvae. This is virtually guaranteed. Put the bags in the freezer for a few days, so you don't lose your soft furnishings in three months time. Once out of the freezer, store in a sealed box or sealed bags. Same for rice, and probably beans, if you have gone full prepper (but not tins of Heinz beans, obviously).

Greece has gone full ****** over the weekend: https://realgreekexperiences.com/greece ... _wC6fsMVHc

The following institutions in Greece will remain closed from 14 March to 27 March:

1. Restaurants, catering businesses, bars, nightclubs, coffeeplaces, cafes, cafeterias, kafeneia and similar establishments. Businesses that offer delivery and take-away services are exempted. Similarly, bars, restaurants and cafes located in hotels, are allowed to serve their customers who are staying there, as long as they take measures to avoid overcrowding.
2. Theatres, cinemas and similar businesses where performances are held.

3. All libraries in the country, public or private.

4. Museums, historical and archaeological sites and buildings, and similar visitor attractions.

5. Private gambling businesses (casinos, card clubs, lottery businesses). People selling lottery tickets on the street are exempted, as are online gambling websites.

6. Gyms and similar facilities. Athletes preparing for the Olympic Games are exempted.

7. Fun fairs, flea markets and commercial exhibitions. Outdoors recreational spaces and public exercise spaces will remain open.

8. Amusement arcades and any other space offering similar entairtainment.

9. Hair salons, barbers, beauty salons, and similar places, such as massage studios.

10. Tattoo and piercing studios.

11. Personal escort services.

12. Shopping malls, large outlets, shops operating with a “shop-in-a-shop” policy.

Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public.

At all points of service, every measure will be taken so that the maximum number of people in a queue is 5.

I particularly like"Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public." They have also closed hotels - tourism is 30% of GDP. What could possibly go wrong?

[youtube]oAKG-kbKeIo[/youtube]

 

[Andy Kev.]

I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.

I suppose I could challenge you to prove the assertion in your last sentence and I also suppose that you wouldn't be able to.

You do not know in which country and indeed on which continent a vaccine will be first developed. Scientific knowledge is promulgated on paper these days or even more quickly on this internet thingy. The point about scientific knowledge is that it can be replicated. I suggest that a far more likely scenario is that once the method of producing a vaccine has been made known, its manufacture will be taken up in any country which is technically capable thereof.

You're indulging in the kind of politicisation of a technical issue which I alluded to in other posts. You also seem to be doing it from a position of little knowledge of biological sciences. (BTW, I'm no expert but I do have a degree in Biology.)

 

[Cheshirechappie]

I wonder whether there's a regional element to the panic buying?

Bog rolls and flour everywhere, it seems, but other essentials specific to certain places. For example, quinoa and truffle oil in Islington, pies in Wigan, Mars Bars and lard in Glasgow, that sort of thing.

Might ask my old mum if she still has any ration books left over from the last war. They might come in handy soon. I did ask her to look out her old gas mask for when she does her shopping, but for some inexplicable reason, she seems to have mislaid it.

PS - Letter seem in the Daily Telegraph some time last week reported the sighting of a sign plastered in the window of an independent butcher somewhere in Surrey, "Panic buyers welcome here".

 

[Marineboy]

I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.

Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.

I suppose I could challenge you to prove the assertion in your last sentence and I also suppose that you wouldn't be able to.

You do not know in which country and indeed on which continent a vaccine will be first developed. Scientific knowledge is promulgated on paper these days or even more quickly on this internet thingy. The point about scientific knowledge is that it can be replicated. I suggest that a far more likely scenario is that once the method of producing a vaccine has been made known, its manufacture will be taken up in any country which is technically capable thereof.

You're indulging in the kind of politicisation of a technical issue which I alluded to in other posts. You also seem to be doing it from a position of little knowledge of biological sciences. (BTW, I'm no expert but I do have a degree in Biology.)

Article in the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

No, I am no expert in biology, hence why I listen to experts, which by your own admission you are not. And politics of whatever complexion dictates our response to any crisis, so it is highly relevant.