Coronavirus

[Chris152]

Spectacular moves from govt today - making it easier for nhs volunteers to volunteer without losing their jobs (sounds very cost-effective for the govt), and court cases may be heard via video links. Oh, and on Monday they'll be meeting sporting bodies to 'discuss the possibility' of events taking place behind closed doors. That could actually cost someone money, so best not rush into any decisions.

What should the public be doing to protect themselves? Washing hands and singing songs. And keeping calm and above all, carrying on. I suppose this is what happens when a largely laissez-faire economy comes up against a significant health threat. Let it run and see what happens.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Spectacular moves from govt today - making it easier for nhs volunteers to volunteer without losing their jobs (sounds very cost-effective for the govt), and court cases may be heard via video links. Oh, and on Monday they'll be meeting sporting bodies to 'discuss the possibility' of events taking place behind closed doors. That could actually cost someone money, so best not rush into any decisions.

What should the public be doing to protect themselves? Washing hands and singing songs. And keeping calm and above all, carrying on. I suppose this is what happens when a largely laissez-faire economy comes up against a significant health threat. Let it run and see what happens.

The economic question is whether the defensive measures cause more damage to the economy than many people dying. Given the elderly are the target age range, governments could be better off letting it run its course, and getting rid of millions of pensioners. Being this callous could lose them votes so expect lots of sympathetic noises even if they do nothing tangible. We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics. Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result. Lots of things for Boris to consider...

 

[selectortone]

Where are the headlines about the hundreds of people who have died from influenza this winter? 6,600 worldwide in 2019 according to the CDC.

My sister sent me a twitter link to a video of a crowd in Costo in Farnborough panic buying toilet rolls. It was like the January sales. Or a zombie movie. Giant trolleys crammed with multi-packs pushed by people with glazed eyes. Good grief, I really despair about the human race sometimes.

 

[Lons]

We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics.

With 5 years left in office I doubt that will be top of the agenda at the minute although it is a given that it's always a factor.

Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result.

At the last election a large percentage of labour stronghold voters changed sides, these are largely in areas where the population is least healthy, low paid workers or on benefits, smokers, poor diet etc so I guess those conservative votes would be lost given your argument.
How long have you lived in isolation in Greece TM?

Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.

Hear, hear.

Noises from the authorities have suggested that there may come a time when they ask older folks to self-isolate, and that they're making arrangements with the supermarkets and grocery delivery companies to ensure that anyone so isolated gets food supplies. So it has been thought about.

Now is a good time to look out for elderly relatives and neighbours, and see that they're OK. (Given the nature of most of the older folks I know, they'll probably tell you to stop being so damn patronising and they've lived through worse - but they'll secretly appreciate the thought!)

 

[RogerS]

OK Chris152. We get it. You don't like Boris. You don't like the Tories.

But what would you do if you were PM?

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[Chris152]

It's a shame to reduce the discussion to that level, Roger - not my point at all.
My point is that the economy seems to be significantly prioritised over public health, and this in an uncontrolled manner (it's probably going to hit the economy in the fullness of time anyway, as it has in China and is now in Italy).
My problem's all tied up in the 'Keep calm and carry on' phrase.
Keep calm - yes. Carry on as normal - why? I've seen no advice beyond the hand washing and face touching, and self-isolation if you think you've been infected.
How about, avoid public transport if you don't really need to use it? Avoid crowded places if you don't really need to be there? They seem very obvious, but we're not being told them. If you don't keep getting in such situations, you don't need to keep washing your hands. The only reason I can think of that we're not told these things is that it'd probably hit the economy. I've no idea really, just trying to make sense of the information we're getting/ not getting.
For me, my questions started when, as I wrote in another thread, govt claimed closing schools would have no benefit in terms of containing the virus, which seems complete nonsense to me. And it's a real issue for me with kids of school age - kids who could easily stay home.
So no real interest in the party politics of the situation as you suggest. The economics of the situation are important tho, I think.

 

[RogerS]

It's a shame to reduce the discussion to that level, Roger - not my point at all.
My point is that the economy seems to be significantly prioritised over public health, and this in an uncontrolled manner (it's probably going to hit the economy in the fullness of time anyway, as it has in China and is now in Italy).
My problem's all tied up in the 'Keep calm and carry on' phrase.
Keep calm - yes. Carry on as normal - why? I've seen no advice beyond the hand washing and face touching, and self-isolation if you think you've been infected.
How about, avoid public transport if you don't really need to use it? Avoid crowded places if you don't really need to be there? They seem very obvious, but we're not being told them. If you don't keep getting in such situations, you don't need to keep washing your hands. The only reason I can think of that we're not told these things is that it'd probably hit the economy. I've no idea really, just trying to make sense of the information we're getting/ not getting.
For me, my questions started when, as I wrote in another thread, govt claimed closing schools would have no benefit in terms of containing the virus, which seems complete nonsense to me. And it's a real issue for me with kids of school age - kids who could easily stay home.
So no real interest in the party politics of the situation as you suggest. The economics of the situation are important tho, I think.

Well this seems a reasonable approach to me

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... istancing/

 

[MusicMan]

As one in the 'categories' - due to age but nowt else - I was curious to see what the process was after you realise you've become infected.

Self-isolate, lie-down and think of England seems to be the advice and it will all go away (eventually).

But nowhere could I find what the protocol was if you got into serious breathing difficulties.

I'm in the age, diabetes, heart disease and (mild) asthma categories. My reaction would be that if I don't recover smartly, it's intensive care.

 

[RogerS]

Exactly so. But what is the protocol to get you into IC?

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[Terry - Somerset]

I mostly agree with Chris152, but a few comments:

I will personally be adapting my own behaviour to reduce my risk as I am within a fairly high risk group - avoid crowds, public transport, etc. But we need to keep a sense of proportion - currently there are around 250 cases identified (could be under reported) within a population of approx 60m - approx 1 in every 200,000 -300,000. Risks today are low - but in three weeks time.........?

But if the virus is now out in the community closing schools would delay the spread, but not stop it.

There are approx 9m (age 5-18) pupils in primary and secondary schools, plus (say) approx 2m in pre-school. Assume all children below the age of 14 (say 8m) need some form of parental supervision. Some parents may come to arrangements with friends, family or have more than one child. But around 5m adults would need to stop work to care for children - a large part of the total UK workforce which also includes nurses, doctors, health care etc.

The final point is for how long would they remain closed. Perversely by delaying the spread of C19, their closure would actually be extended, possibly to several months. Whether it is seeen as the loss to the economy or the affect on individual household incomes, the impact would be severe.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics.

With 5 years left in office I doubt that will be top of the agenda at the minute although it is a given that it's always a factor.

Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result.

At the last election a large percentage of labour stronghold voters changed sides, these are largely in areas where the population is least healthy, low paid workers or on benefits, smokers, poor diet etc so I guess those conservative votes would be lost given your argument.
How long have you lived in isolation in Greece TM?

Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.

Hard not to be political when discussing politicians, but I fully agree not to be partisan. I was trying to highlight the cynicism and lack of empathy that will be brought to bear when making decisions about who lives and who dies. Do you think preventing elderly people dying, or preventing banks collapsing will be the priority? Any and all flavours of politician will have the same answer to that one.

Oh, and about twenty years f insolation. Sometimes it shows. Who knew it was such a good idea? I thought I was being antisocial - didn't realise it was just me getting ahead of the epidemic.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

...
The final point is for how long would they remain closed. Perversely by delaying the spread of C19, their closure would actually be extended, possibly to several months. Whether it is seeen as the loss to the economy or the affect on individual household incomes, the impact would be severe.

Delay is good. The slower the spread, the less strain on resources (i.e. the NHS), and the slower the spread, the more likely it will peter out in the summer. Until next winter, anyway.

However, expect a banking crisis because of all this. There was one coming anyway, but this won't help. Many billions of free money to be passed to bankers (again), because they are worth it. There probably won't be any left over for people with viruses, but never mind. Time for more austerity, because it's good for you.

 

[Chris152]

Well this seems a reasonable approach to me

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... istancing/

Yes - those are the measures I think we should already be taking if we really want to slow down the spread of the virus.

Terry-S - Yes, the figures look less worrying like that, but remember that the incubation period is long, so in two or three weeks we'll have a better idea of how many people are actually infected right now. By which time...

 

[lurker]

Chris, you are either a politician or a consultant .

You keep saying you you are no expert and then stating what measures should be taken.

 

[Chris152]

Ah, ok. If you're not an expert in something, say nothing? Traffic on this forum should become pretty limited on that basis.

 

[MusicMan]

Exactly so. But what is the protocol to get you into IC?

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I would call 111 and, if that didn't work, call my GP surgery. I guess I could call the cardio and diabetes clinics too if needed. Our local hospital has already ring fenced a block just outside the main hospital for the serious virus patients.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Craig Murray has an interesting perspective on all this: https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... ona-virus/

The Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968/9 was the last really serious flu pandemic to sweep the UK. They do seem extraordinarily regular – 1919, 1969 and 2020. Flu epidemics have much better punctuality than the trains (though I cheated a bit there and left out the 1958 “Asian flu”). Nowadays “Hong Kong flu” is known as H3N2. Estimates for deaths it caused worldwide vary from 1 to 4 million. In the UK it killed an estimated 80,000 people...

 

[Trevanion]

"The two latest cases are members of the same household in Pembrokeshire"

 

[sawdust1]

The wife just said we are nearly out of loo roll, should be an interesting shopping trip later.