RogerS
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Chris152":167lo3cw said:
It's getting through up here in Cumbria. Carlisle like a ghost town.
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It's getting through up here in Cumbria. Carlisle like a ghost town.
Phil Pascoe
Established Member
I've just taken the dog for his usual two miles. Saw the two people I usually see. 
Could you buy in a simple set of weights (they're not so expensive on Amazon etc) and build yourself a heavy-duty bench - nice woodworking project?RogerS":awtic3id said:
Seriously, I'd imagine keeping in the best shape you can both mentally and physically is important, and it sounds like it's going on for quite some time. I bought one of those stands to put a regular bike on so you can use it indoors - the weather's been so bad for cycling this year it made sense, and now it makes even more sense.
Lons
Established Member
I played golf yesterday at a Newcastle club with a huge car and dining area that's always heaving at lunch time and we usually can't find a seat to have a coffee after the game, yesterday it was empty apart from the 3 of us and 5 other people. The course was busy though.
That was before the announcements to stay at home but I'm still going fishing on Thursday as the only contact to catch it from are the fish. Do trout carry Corvid-19? :wink:
That was before the announcements to stay at home but I'm still going fishing on Thursday as the only contact to catch it from are the fish.
Do trout carry Corvid-19? :wink:
RogerS
Established Member
Chris152":krpy8wb0 said:
Nice idea, Chris, but you need a whole range of weights and the price soon adds up.
Lons
Established Member
Cut up a few logs and rig something up Roger :wink:
It's dig for victory here. My wife has me making "windows" for a cold frame. I guess it's still woodwork, but fine furniture it certainly ain't (although I did clean this up a bit after I took the clamps off).
(I really can't get photos to show the right way up. It works if you click on it. I wonder if the forum likes all pictures to be landscape?)
(I really can't get photos to show the right way up. It works if you click on it. I wonder if the forum likes all pictures to be landscape?)
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Terry - Somerset
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The number of people required to create herd immunity depends on the rate of infection tranmission. In the case of COVID the best estimate is that each infection has the potential to spread it to approx 2.5 others.
So when 60% of the population is infected, the probability is that the infection will be passed on to only one other - 40% vulnerable x 2.5. Once the rate falls below 1 the spread of infection declines rapidly.
Through advice and/or regulation the government can reduce the spread below the "natural" level - if there is no human interaction there can be no new infections. This is largely what has happened in China - an authoritarian not democratic regime. Seems like problem solved - but what happens when the controls are relaxed?
So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. Government realise that they are part of the herd too - get them infected at an early stage, build up the herd, they rarely have a severe response to the infection so no great demands on NHS.
But they also infect their parents and other family members. Parents (generalisations here) are typically going to be 25-50 years old. Low incidence of severe problems with infection and build up the herd some more. Grandparents obviously more at risk!
As the parent generation build up immunity they can return to working and spending normally - providing their employer has not gone bust in the meantime. This reduces but does not eliminate economic consequences.
But the greatest load on the NHS comes in dealing with the most vulnerable - the elderly and those with chronic problems. Controlling the spread to these groups is key to ensuring that care needs are below the capacity of the NHS to deal with them. Sadly I still think the NHS will be seriously overstretched and unable to provide a service to all at the peak.
Final point - why not embed the advice in legislation with criminal sanctions. Compulsion needs to be enforced and we don't have the police numbers to deal with it. Bring in the troops and we start to look like a police state.
The British "culture" prefers to assume that the public when needed will work for the common good - we did it in the blitz so why not now! A little like Spinal Tap (the rock band in the film) who were proud of their amp which could be turned up to 11 when most could only go to 10, criminalising non-compliance leave you nowhere else to go if the response needs reinforcing in the future.
So when 60% of the population is infected, the probability is that the infection will be passed on to only one other - 40% vulnerable x 2.5. Once the rate falls below 1 the spread of infection declines rapidly.
Through advice and/or regulation the government can reduce the spread below the "natural" level - if there is no human interaction there can be no new infections. This is largely what has happened in China - an authoritarian not democratic regime. Seems like problem solved - but what happens when the controls are relaxed?
So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. Government realise that they are part of the herd too - get them infected at an early stage, build up the herd, they rarely have a severe response to the infection so no great demands on NHS.
But they also infect their parents and other family members. Parents (generalisations here) are typically going to be 25-50 years old. Low incidence of severe problems with infection and build up the herd some more. Grandparents obviously more at risk!
As the parent generation build up immunity they can return to working and spending normally - providing their employer has not gone bust in the meantime. This reduces but does not eliminate economic consequences.
But the greatest load on the NHS comes in dealing with the most vulnerable - the elderly and those with chronic problems. Controlling the spread to these groups is key to ensuring that care needs are below the capacity of the NHS to deal with them. Sadly I still think the NHS will be seriously overstretched and unable to provide a service to all at the peak.
Final point - why not embed the advice in legislation with criminal sanctions. Compulsion needs to be enforced and we don't have the police numbers to deal with it. Bring in the troops and we start to look like a police state.
The British "culture" prefers to assume that the public when needed will work for the common good - we did it in the blitz so why not now! A little like Spinal Tap (the rock band in the film) who were proud of their amp which could be turned up to 11 when most could only go to 10, criminalising non-compliance leave you nowhere else to go if the response needs reinforcing in the future.
Lons
Established Member
Like it!
Keeps you busy, probably out of her hair and you can use them to grow your own food.
Win win situation.
Keeps you busy, probably out of her hair and you can use them to grow your own food.
Win win situation.
Lons
Established Member
Terry - Somerset":g0vtvtpr said:
I know it can't be directly compared but Spanish flu it seems had 3 separate phases so you do have to wonder what the outcome will be.
Whatever happens it will surface again, probably mutated and all anyone can do is try to learn, be better prepared and cope with it. We aren't rabbits with myxomatosis, we're a species of intelligent ( mostly ), creative, spectacularly inventive individuals are we not?
doctor Bob
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RogerS":2ho3sjxx said:
Buy a set of gym rings, £11.99 from amazon. You will be stunned how bad your strength is whether doing weights or not. I've used a set for 6 months and love them, pull ups, dips, push ups on rings are just a different level. 40 push ups, easy on the floor, on rings 2-3 probably max first time. The exercise programs for rings on you tube are brill. I also have a pommell horse but that's ridiculous.
You have my sympathies but it could be worse. Last week my wife volunteered me for a job that only involved cutting lap joints in a load of rough-sawn 2x1 battens. As you say it may be woodwork but fine furniture it certainly ain't.NickM":32lj1k6f said:
RogerS
Established Member
Terry - Somerset":1ili7re9 said:
Because there are rather a large number of essential workers....doctors, nurses, etc.. who would then have to stop working to look after their children perhaps ?
RogerS
Established Member
doctor Bob":3dkp4w5f said:
Slight problem. Nothing to fix them to/suspend them from and my wife would kill me if I started screwing fixing bolts to the ceiling.
RogerS
Established Member
Bodgers
Established Member
I wonder if an alternative might be to allow those that do have childcare to stop attending? Keep the school open for the rest. Might help reduce things at least.RogerS":1lnldkci said:
At my daughter's school, the numbers attending have dropped off, many with parents with conditions and other such reasons.
doctor Bob
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RogerS":2a3xz8a5 said:
tree?
RogerS
Established Member
doctor Bob":ryy4o3g6 said:
This IS Northumberland, Bob. We don't go outside until just the middle two days in July.
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