COP26 progress or same old

[Spectric]

Well they are well into COPOUT26 and there have been some murmours and grunts but nothing really solid from the major contributors, more words and vague promises but coal and oil will still be consumed and who is going to count all those trees to actually see if the countries who claim that they will stop deforestation will actually do so. They will certainly not be able to claim this meeting has been carbon neutral considering how they all got there and give it a few months and it will just fade into history as they start talking about COP27.

The big changes will come from government - eg: banning sales of ICE from 2030, banning gas boilers from 2035 would not have happened without legislation.

IMHO the government needs to go much further to have any prospect of zero carbon - mandating better new build standards, increasing (2, 3, 4 fold) taxes on energy consumption and plastics to influence consumer decisions, taxing embedded imported energy etc.

This is why there is so little actually happening and with major players absent then even if the UK was perfect and we all drive electric cars and no gas boilers then it would still not make a huge difference globally. If our government was really serious then you would have seen new build standards being improved and not still fitting gas boilers and laying new gas pipelines, positive decisions on new oil and coal extraction and really leading by example rather than kids who won't do something unless someone does it first. The leaders all have conflicting interest, they are also mostly of an older generation which although they should also be wiser does mean they will not see the worst of what is coming so are they really fully invested in the issues.

I suppose Thumberg summed it up that not only has nothing really changed since the french meeting, nothing has really changed due to the last 25 meetings, so how can leaders actually deliver action without massive impacts on their economies and populations and what will actually deliver the will power required, I think it will be nature delivering something that hits the message home with such force it cannot be ignored.

 

[Droogs]

When Beijing becomes the new Venice and New York reverts to being New Amsterdam, we might see a bit of action

 

[Adam W.]

Probably a bit too late then as low lying countries like Bangladesh will be underwater and the great migration will be well underway.

 

[niemeyjt]

Given many key polluters were absent and others showed zero interest in practising what they preach I anticipate little change.

I also think that people will get green fatigue - especially if a set of green cost increases hits at the sane time as the next recession.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Little long term (decadal) reduction in greenhouse gases is likely in global terms until the need for action is abundantly self evident. Democracies typically have elections every 4 or 5 years driving short term agendas.

Wealthy individuals and countries will make only limited sacrifices in pursuit of a long term climate goals.

Poorer nations and individuals have to put food on the table tomorrow. They need funding to transition to zero carbon - or forests will burn and coal dug to meet the immediate.

Whilst the scientific community and many others may be convinced of the need for action, alarmist or remote tales of, loss of coral reefs, drought in sub-saharan africa, pacific islands flooded, stripping the rainforest etc are far removed from UK realities.

The prompt for radical change will need to be very eveident and material - eg: London flooded after Thames barrier overwhelmed, Fenland under water for 6 months following winter storms, wind turbines in the west ripped from foundations due to strong winds etc.

The reality is the UK is wealthy enough to largely adapt and evolve - catastrophic impacts may be many decades away. The media so consistently exaggerate all issue in pursuit of viewers and circulation they now largely have the impact of comics - the public just believe the bits they choose and ignore the rest.

 

[Chris152]

I think too much business in the developed world is hard-wired to value profit, expansion, domination and so on to allow them to make significant change. It's a very deep-rooted set of values. From the little I've followed on the news of COP 26, there seems to be a series of reasonable proposals (adequate or not) but a lack of sanctions against those who don't follow through on agreements. So the culture as it's stood for many decades will continue to blight green ambitions, businesses pursuing 'success' (profit) and compromising the required rate of change.

Maybe I've watched too many Hollywood films over recent years, but I feel pessimistic about the world our kids/ grandkids will grow up in. My advice to them is to avoid urban centres by as far as possible, work for themselves manufacturing something people need, and be ready to be self-sufficient. That said, that'd be my advice with or without global warming.

 

[Billy_wizz]

Until the world as a whole realize that the biggest problem is due to overpopulation and agree the need for a worldwide 1 and done system for the next 4-5 generations nothing much will be achieved!

 

[Jacob]

Until the world as a whole realize that the biggest problem is due to overpopulation and agree the need for a worldwide 1 and done system for the next 4-5 generations nothing much will be achieved!

If overpopulation is the issue then we should start by reducing the wealthy portion
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...double-co2-emissions-of-poorest-50-says-oxfamhttps://www.oxfam.org/en/press-rele...t-more-double-emissions-poorest-half-humanityhttps://www.ecowatch.com/carbon-footprint-billionaires-2650552617.htmlhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/carbon-footprint-wealthy-people-97-percent-cut-un/

 

[Spectric]

Until the world as a whole realize that the biggest problem is due to overpopulation and agree the need for a worldwide 1 and done system for the next 4-5 generations nothing much will be achieved!

Not only that but to work globally as one and instead of spending billions on tools that destroy, invest in sustainable technology and projects that deliver for the masses. Nature will more than likely resolve the issue of overpopulation as the planet cooks and droughts cause famine.

I think too much business in the developed world is hard-wired to value profit, expansion, domination and so on to allow them to make significant change. It's a very deep-rooted set of values.

That is going to require massive changes in the way we all think and live our lives, let's just go back to a time when people made the decision on what and when to buy rather than this marketing driven system where companies can make a fast buck by using the word "designer" which is just a commercial con like fashion.

 

[Jacob]

Optimistic as ever Terry!

Little long term (decadal) reduction in greenhouse gases is likely in global terms until the need for action is abundantly self evident.

By which time it will be too late, if it isn't already

.Wealthy individuals and countries will make only limited sacrifices in pursuit of a long term climate goals.

True if we relied on charity but it will have to be more about having no choice

Poorer nations and individuals have to put food on the table tomorrow. They need funding to transition to zero carbon - or forests will burn and coal dug to meet the immediate.

They are already closest to zero carbon - they will need funding for fairness so that global economies become more equitable

Whilst the scientific community and many others may be convinced of the need for action, alarmist or remote tales of, loss of coral reefs, drought in sub-saharan africa, pacific islands flooded, stripping the rainforest etc are far removed from UK realities.

Totally inaccurate. It is a global phenomenon and no part of the globe will be untouched

The prompt for radical change will need to be very eveident and material - eg: London flooded after Thames barrier overwhelmed, Fenland under water for 6 months following winter storms, wind turbines in the west ripped from foundations due to strong winds etc.

And too late. "Last week, London was flooded for a third time within weeks." London flood map shows areas of city at risk of being underwater

The reality is the UK is wealthy enough to largely adapt and evolve - catastrophic impacts may be many decades away.

Depends where you live. Have you seen the accounts of flooding in recent years? Unprecedented and becoming the new normal. But wrong anyway - the UK is not remotely self sufficient and depends on global trade

The media so consistently exaggerate all issue in pursuit of viewers and circulation they now largely have the impact of comics - the public just believe the bits they choose and ignore the rest.

Absolutely wrong. The media have largely derided the whole issue, even the BBC with so-called "balance". They are only just starting to catch up.
Even this thread on this forum would have been impossible 2 years ago but people are starting to take notice at last.

 

[Droogs]

A pity it has taken 50 years since the first scientifically based warnings were given to the fossil fuel and plastics industries by their own research teams for those and all the subsequent ones to be noticed and believed. If we had taken action went it was first shown to be a provable fact rather than obfuscate and lie about it by the ones causing the harm for the most part it would probably be either resolved or possibly averted by now.

If COP26 achieves anything, I will be surprised, I think it more likely that we will see a rise in Eco-terorrism with increasingly violent attacks on the polluting industries and governments of the world. After all if your parents don't actually care enough to save you from death by thirst, hunger or pollution induced disease or slow suffocation then as a member of the first generation who will actually suffer these things you might be inclined to be a teeny weeny bit extremist in your actions.

edit typos

 

[Chris152]

If COP26 achieves anything, I will be surprised, I think it more likely that we will see a rise in Eco-terorrism with increasingly violent attacks on the polluting industries and governments of the world.

This, together with mass migrations and possibly national conflicts resulting from them. There's potentially a lot of anger brewing away in this - flooding and famine could well become just catalysts for even more destructive human behaviour. It does sound like one of those disaster movie plots, let's hope that's all it is.
Meanwhile, I've been working away in the garage, making some wooden jewellery.

 

[Chris152]

 

[DrPhill]

Gtreta Thunberg thinks it a waste of time.
"Global North Greenwash Festival".

 

[Sandyn]

I don't think there will be anything significant from COP26. There are some great ideas, such as 'One Sun, One World & One Grid', but that's long term.

 

[Awac]

Not only that but to work globally as one and instead of spending billions on tools that destroy, invest in sustainable technology and projects that deliver for the masses. Nature will more than likely resolve the issue of overpopulation as the planet cooks and droughts cause famine.



That is going to require massive changes in the way we all think and live our lives, let's just go back to a time when people made the decision on what and when to buy rather than this marketing driven system where companies can make a fast buck by using the word "designer" which is just a commercial con like fashion.

If this workshop forum can talk more sense than the leaders of the world, then either everyone on this site is a genius or the politicians don’t really, deep down give a dam. Hey, that’s a close call!

Seriously, they know, but they are going to keep blagging it, because they are comfortable and betting they will die before it gets to bad for them.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

I read an amusing article the other day suggesting that we are at peak climate hysteria. It's all downhill from here. All the doom laden hockey stick projections run far too hot (and they don't know why), and the longer Chicken Little runs around screaming that the sky is falling without any actual proof, the fewer people will pay any attention, so the louder they will have to shout. BBC's Click program showing us the future in delicious, nutricious insect based cuisine would be a fine example of the genre.

{Cue Jacob with his Guardian inspired end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it lunacy.}

Electric bus for the win? How climate sensitive is this:

One day, if you are very lucky, (and have the requisite permissions from the Climate Travel Authority) you may be on a cross chanel ferry that does the same, with a thousand lithium batteries all cheek by jowl. But we saved the planet, so that's OK.

To be fair there are some good things coming out of COP26:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/financ...on-climate-change-at-cop26-summit-11635897675
No funding for petroleum projects, coal or nuclear means we will run out in about 5 years, not because there isn't any, but because there isn't any capital for development. Rekon we are ready to go carbon free? Because you will, like it or not. There is a view (Goldman Sachs) that oil will be at $200 a barrel next summer purely because of lack of supply. $80 a barrel creates an instant global recession. Oh dear. What's the price apt the moment?

The Third World is to be brutalised even more than usual by economic imperialism - no fossil fuels to drag them out of poverty thank you very much. A 30% cut in methane basically means a 30%reduction in farming. What could possibly go wrong? COP 26: Methane madness - CFACT

It's an alternative view, I agree, and I know that lots of people will be very upset with me for mentioning that the clever ideas to reduce climate change seem to mean, owing to "unintended" consequences, killing millions if not billions of people. We are certainly living in interesting times.

I'm now off to pick some olives, to make some olive oil which will will be shipped to a supermarket near you. Do enjoy it, because it may be illegal to buy soon (unless you are are billionaire, obviously - different rules apply to them, and no one seems to mind).

 

[Chris152]

Yep, the fossil-fuel industries, lazy-minded politicians and on-line conspiracists seem to have helped make a dreadful situation even worse through the doubts and delays they've created. All a bit of a rush now and no doubt many will suffer, it's just a question of creating the path of least destruction and yes, self-interest will pay a large part in how it unfolds.

Personally, I'm quite happy to eat insects if that's part of the plan - I've not knowingly tried them (except the odd inhaled mossie), but reckon they'll be mini versions of the seafood I enjoy muchly - mini lobster thermidors, locust bouillabaisse and so on.

 

[Jacob]

I read an amusing article the other day suggesting that we are at peak climate hysteria. It's all downhill from here. All the doom laden hockey stick projections run far too hot (and they don't know why), and the longer Chicken Little runs around screaming that the sky is falling without any actual proof, the fewer people will pay any attention, so the louder they will have to shout. BBC's Click program showing us the future in delicious, nutricious insect based cuisine would be a fine example of the genre.

It's more a case of people beginning to face the facts, the MSM including the BBC having been CC sceptical or in denial for a long time.
People are alarmed - and about time too - the thing that the science has been warning about since 1856 has slowly come to pass. Nothing has happened to suggest that the science (on the broad front) is mistaken, the evidence is with us.
Picking at random from the doomsday scenarios; New climate models suggest faster melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet - Carbon Brief do you simply believe that all this stuff is not true and they are just making it up?

..
It's an alternative view, I agree, and I know that lots of people will be very upset with me for mentioning that the clever ideas to reduce climate change seem to mean, owing to "unintended" consequences, killing millions if not billions of people. We are certainly living in interesting times.

Well it's a point of view - let CC rip and take it on the chin, if that is what you mean.
CC is likely to kill millions if not billions. What COP26 and the whole climate change issue is about how to stop this from happening

PS the science; until recently there was an optimistic guess that CC would trigger a new ice age which would restore the balance, albeit inconveniently. This idea has been discarded as the science has developed, though there may be local effects such as slowing of the gulf stream and cooling climate along the NE Atlantic coast, affecting the British Isles in particular. Just another detail!

PPS Why do you think Olives would be banned? I guess Brexit might have made imports more difficult but we know who to blame for that (the Brexitards!!). Are you at all disturbed that olive oil is a big favourite with veggies and vegans?

 

[Lonsdale73]

How's the ozone doing? Along with "Save the Whales", it seems to have become a forgotten cause, displaced by the new, in vogue causes with catchy taglines like Net Zero and Climate Change. Did banning CFC help the hole it had created to heal up? Or was the problem slightly over-egged, a Currie-esque salmonella in the solar system?

Although a young child at the time, I remember the summer of '76, the unusually hot and dry summer we all enjoyed despite news reports of people having to fetch water in buckets like some third world country, photos of dried up and cracked riverbeds and warnings of "the end is nigh" - I remember John Craven saying as much on Newsround.

I remember a well-liked and highly respected teacher introducing me to the term 'Global Warming" with the promise that 'in the future' we would have more summers like that of 76 which - as a child who wanted to be outdoors all the time - sounded great to me. That said, same teacher also told me that we were the only country in the world to drive on the left and one or two other things that have subsequently proved false. That's not to say I think he lied or wantonly tried to deceive me, more that he passed on misinformation he'd been fed.

In later years, studying for a degree, I would learn that throughout its c4.5billion year life, planet earth had undergone many periods of climate change, warming up, cooling down, all backed up by scientific facts and data. I also learned that throughout history, other scientests had proved beyond doubt that the earth was flat and at the centre of the universe; thank heavens for Copernicus.

Along the way, I have also learned that fact and scientific data can be 'modelled' to suit a preferred pattern, perhaps depending on who is footing the bill and what their desired outcome might be. It can be made sexed up, like a report on the existence of Weapons of Mass Destruction. Consequently, I'm a little sceptical of the things people - particularly politicians - pass of as 'fact'.

In the 45 years since that long hot summer of '76, I haven't experienced too many others like it, maybe two at most, 1990 and possibly 2010. John Craven and myself, while both a little heavier and a lot greyer, we're still here. I'd like to think my teacher is too and I know for sure the planet's still here, still turning. And politicians are still creating more hot air and bullsh1t then the entire bovid population. Like Cummins demonstrated with his 528 mile round trip to an opticians, they don't even attempt to show any pretence to believing what they say is true. At the same time, the media was full of reports of how a few weeks without millions of cars clogging up the roads and planes poisoning the skies, Planet Earth had started to heal herself, with wildlife returning to habitats from which they had been absent for many, many years and I believe there was even a rare sighting of a unicorn, even rarer than an honest politician. If any of this is even remotely true, it poses a number of questions, one being is the situation really as bad as is it is currently being made out to be? Another is given that the world's cattle population numbers didn't change by much if any, are they really such a threat to the planet?