Brexit The Movie

[Alexam]

I cant see how we can pull out later if we want. It seems to me to be a once only chance to leave.

UK can pull out any time with 2 years notice. BUT as now it will take 10 years to unravel and rebuild outside the EU.
I'm for remaining. The Brexit film, as far as I watched, was citing 47 laws for a bathroom - I can understand that you need standardisation so that UK manufactures can sell to the whole EU and benefit from selling to the whole market on one production run.

EU legislation is lead a lot of the time by UK Govt and companies, been very close to it at one time.

Brian

Brian, If you believe that the UK Government and companies can control the EU legislation, then you have not understood the years that we have been members. If they did, why would there ever be a need to leave. Perhaps you need to look a little deeper into the facts and figures and really understand the problems that the UK faces by staying in. We need to stand on our own, continue trade within the Common Market and develop new trade routs with other countries that we are told we can't by the EU.

Malcolm

 

[woodpig]

This is pretty upbeat.

https://youtu.be/j0pwXLtvt2w

Staying in has its own risks.

 

[Jacob]

.... other countries that we are told we can't by the EU.

Malcolm

This is wrong.
In or out we can trade with whom we like, but IN increases trade opportunities world wide:

"the EU does not prevent the UK from trading with the rest of the world – or the Commonwealth in particular. First of all, the EU has no impact on the commercial type of trade deals, like the £9 billion worth of trade deals between the UK and India agreed during the recent visit of the Indian Prime Minister."
quoted from this, which you should read:

http://euromove.org.uk/how-can-we-get-t ... monwealth/

There's a lot of this complete misunderstanding of the EU coming almost entirely from the Brexit side.

If we vote for OUT it will be down to massive misunderstanding of the issues by the Brexiters - they seriously need to check the facts and do a bit of research.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Yes a minority of people on the edge (for whatever reason) may turn to crime ...
Jacob, they're not "people on the edge" turning to crime - they are criminals who come here for the pickings.
The population of Cornwall has nearly doubled since we joined the EU, and all around me hosing estates of hundreds and even thousands are being built and planned. No one has built a hospital, a surgery, a school, improved a sewer, laid a gas main, improved a road (other than a £30million+ part paid by yes, the EU (read you and me being told how to spend our own money) that goes ... effectively nowhere) for decades - yet we're expected to welcome thousands more mainly unskilled people. Before anyone starts about the agricultural industry needing them, many of the farmers are staunchly anti EU. (Our MP being one).

 

[Phil Pascoe]

"In or out we can trade with whom we like" - but we have to kowtow to EU regulations and absorb costs imposed by them when dealing with non EU Countries.

 

[Jacob]

Yes a minority of people on the edge (for whatever reason) may turn to crime ...
Jacob, they're not "people on the edge" turning to crime - they are criminals who come here for the pickings.
The population of Cornwall has nearly doubled since we joined the EU, and all around me hosing estates of hundreds and even thousands are being built and planned. No one has built a hospital, a surgery, a school, improved a sewer, laid a gas main, improved a road (other than a £30million+ part paid by yes, the EU (read you and me being told how to spend our own money) that goes ... effectively nowhere) for decades - yet we're expected to welcome thousands more mainly unskilled people. Before anyone starts about the agricultural industry needing them, many of the farmers are staunchly anti EU. (Our MP being one).

Are houses being built in such vast quantities? I doubt it but if true this would be a good thing - we have a housing crisis country wide not just Cornwall.
Blame "austerity" for the lack of investment. If we are out and austerity is still in vogue then things will get worse.
Are you saying that half the population of Cornwall is now EU immigrants? I doubt this too. Do you have any figures?

Start here: https://www.cornwall.gov.uk/council-and ... opulation/

 

[Phil Pascoe]

No, I didn't say that, I didn't even imply that. It's little to do with austerity, more to do with a reluctance on the part of any politician to openly admit that our population is increasing relentlessly. Go into many pubs and the only accent you'll hear is estuary English - speak to many of these people and they'll tell you they've moved to Cornwall to get away from immigrants. I'd sooner have the company of many of the Poles, personally.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Actually the population is further boosted by housing authorities from outside the County part paying new social housing development then shipping people down - the GLC started the ball rolling decades ago. Can't blame foreigners for that one.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

"Are houses being built in such vast quantities?"
The main reason the £30million road was pushed through according to a County councillor friend was because there were plans in the pipeline for 7,500 houses. The local press has published that it's 5000. I don't know where the people who take the houses think they're going to work.

 

[kdampney]

Both sides' plans seem to revolve around each campaign issuing unsubstantiatable statements every other day, and then rubbishing the other's statements with flat contradictions.

* "Brexit will leads to more wars." -> "Leaving will lead to more peace."
* "Brexit will result in greater prosperity." -> "Staying in will result in more wealth creation."
etc. etc.

The whole thing seems just like the Scottish Independence campaign, where there's a modified-status-quo VS a leap-into-the-unknown/seizing-our-destiny (depending on your point of view). Few 'facts', lots of opinions, difficult to judge objectively what to do, so people will go on emotion. My thoughts were that Scotland would survive on it's own after a few years of disruption, but would it be any better than if it stayed? Perhaps not. And those are my views on Brexit too, though I'm still open to factual arguments.

There's a lot of talk about the EU Commissioners being unelected - they're nominated by each nation's government, and the President is very unlikely to overturn the nomination. So in that sense they're not dissimilar to our House of Lords...

 

[stuartpaul]

The sad truth is nobody really knows what will happen whether we leave or stay. Unfortunately by the time the 'real truth' is known it may well be neigh on impossible to do anything about it.

For example, if we leave and it all goes chest up will they have us back? Highly unlikely. Arguably leaving will be easier further down the road (someone mentioned 2 years notice?).

I find some of the emotional arguments put forward (not just here but wider) that at least we'd be 'in control' if we left rather short sighted. You won't be able to trade with 'Europe' (last time round 44% of our trade) if you don't comply with their standards and rules. For example, trying selling something without a CE mark?

So many people appear to have the 'island fortress' pull up the drawbridge mentality from the 1940's that I find it scary. We're in the second decade of the 21st century and to believe we can make it on our own just isn't right.

Another way to think about it is do you want Boris as Prime Minister? Because if the vote is to leave DC will almost certainly have to resign as he have no further clout within the Tory party and I reckon Boris will get the job! Scary or what?

Boris and Donald as the terrible twins?

 

[Cheshirechappie]

There's a lot of talk about the EU Commissioners being unelected - they're nominated by each nation's government, and the President is very unlikely to overturn the nomination. So in that sense they're not dissimilar to our House of Lords...

The difference is that the House of Lords can only revise legislation or advise government, but don't take the decisions. The decisions are taken by government, drawn from elected members of the Commons. Thus, the decision-makers are drawn from the directly elected (mostly - the occasional Lord is asked to serve in a government role). The decision-makers are thus directly accountable to the electorate.

In the EU, the Commissioners take the decisions, which are then (theoretically) scrutinised by the European Parliament, which is composed of elected MEPs. In practice, the EP has never voted against a Commission dictat, so the elected members act only as a rubber stamp to decisions made by the appointed few, who are unaccountable to the electorate.

The Westminster system isn't perfect, but it is far more accountable via the ballot box to you or I than the EU system.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

The sad truth is nobody really knows what will happen whether we leave or stay. Unfortunately by the time the 'real truth' is known it may well be neigh on impossible to do anything about it.

For example, if we leave and it all goes chest up will they have us back? Highly unlikely. Arguably leaving will be easier further down the road (someone mentioned 2 years notice?).

I find some of the emotional arguments put forward (not just here but wider) that at least we'd be 'in control' if we left rather short sighted. You won't be able to trade with 'Europe' (last time round 44% of our trade) if you don't comply with their standards and rules. For example, trying selling something without a CE mark?

So many people appear to have the 'island fortress' pull up the drawbridge mentality from the 1940's that I find it scary. We're in the second decade of the 21st century and to believe we can make it on our own just isn't right.

Another way to think about it is do you want Boris as Prime Minister? Because if the vote is to leave DC will almost certainly have to resign as he have no further clout within the Tory party and I reckon Boris will get the job! Scary or what?

Boris and Donald as the terrible twins?

Well on the last point, I think we could do worse. Before Reagan became US President, a lot of people said, "He's only a B-movie actor". He turned out to be OK as president. For Prime Minister, I've seen far worse candidates than Boris. Sure, he's got a huge ambition, but that's a fairly common trait among politicians of all stripe. Perfect? Probably neither of them, but nor are the other options.

Could the UK stand on it's own? Of course it could. Why do we need our hand held? It's the fifth largest economy in the world, not a third-rate back-water. Besides, our security alliances (NATO, for example) don't depend on EU membership. On trade, we could well be better off trading round the world and taking opportunities as they arise rather than waiting for a monolithic bureaucratic bloc to catch up with where the action is and negotiating on our behalf.

The industrial revolution happened the Britain. One reason it happened here is because we had a very hands-off government, one that allowed people to just get on with it, unless experience showed that legislation was necessary. It didn't happen in Europe because their approach to government was much more authoritarian - everything's banned unless a committee specifically allows it. That approach remains the case today, and is the reason why Brexiteers get so hot under the collar about EU regulations - it just isn't the way we're used to doing things.

For me, the clincher is being able to vote for the people who govern, and hold them to account directly through the ballot box. However, there's also much I dislike about the EU approach to governance, which I think is tending to stifle economic activity; it certainly hasn't been much good for the people of Greece and the southern Mediterranian. Is 50% youth unemployment in Spain a price worth paying to save the Euro? I don't think so.

The EU has had it's day as a way of governing, and is showing it's severe limitations. It's time to move to something better.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Many seem to have fixed views and simply support that which most closely aligns to their preconceived ideas rather than critically examine the points that are made. Examples include:

- placing more reliance on Brexit campaigners that the economy will boom freed from EU shackles, than the opinion of world leading economic authorities. Whilst the man in the pub may have a view, I would rather see a doctor about medical matters!

- the statement that the EU is not audited is incorrect. The EU has been audited - the last figures are for 2014. It did find material issues with some 4-5% of payments made - not necessarily fraudulent but often spent for purposes other than intended. Whilst not good and leaving room for improvement, few if any public bodies could claim that all money was efficiently spent, on the items intended, and without error.

- nature of EU migrant workers - on average recent migrants have higher qualifications (degree level) than UK workers but often work in jobs for which they are over qualified. They are not all crop pickers - it is estimated that approx. 40% are in skilled jobs. There is a nationality bias however with Eastern European doing proportionately lower skilled jobs.

- EU will be keen to set up trade agreements with UK - often citing the BMW example. For EU to sign a trade agreement requires the consent of all members who may have conflicting views - eg: Citroen, Renault, Fiat who would be happy to sit behind a tariff barrier to restrict imports of UK built Honda, Nissan etc cars. UK manufacturers may also welcome BMW tariff barriers to protect their domestic UK market.

- Similar conflicting pressures will apply to most areas of trade. Setting up new agreements assuming we wish to restrict the free movement of labour and avoid other onerous EU regulation will be far from easy or swift.

Overall I think the first 5 years will be particularly difficult economically and it is a matter of faith, not analysis whether in the longer term (10 years +) things will be better or worse. We have little or no idea what we will get with a Leave vote as it is subject to negotiation and compromise subsequently. A Remain vote is probably a vote for mostly more of the same - both good and bad.

In terms of sovereignty and political accountability The EU is far from perfect, but I am not convinced that our home grown political elite are in practice brighter, more competent or less remote than their Brussels counterparts.

If it was an easy question to answer there would be no need for a referendum - but we should at least ensure we vote on the basis of what is objectively or reasonably supportable, not spin and misinformation.

 

[MIGNAL]

If Norway are 'out' of the EU, how come I (or any other EU member) can go their freely and look for work? They cannot stop me.
Doesn't sound like they have much control of their borders as far as I can see. Same with Iceland.

 

[lurker]

This is getting more boring than the sharpening thread
Is your finger itching yet Bob
Go on!
You know you want to.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

" Citroen, Renault, Fiat who would be happy to sit behind a tariff barrier to restrict imports of UK built Honda, Nissan etc cars. UK manufacturers may also welcome BMW tariff barriers to protect their domestic UK market. "
In reality is that such a dreadful thing? UK built Hondas and Nissans will go up price in France and Germany and BMWs and Renaults will go up here. Bad news if you are a disciple of one brand, but it doesn't mean you'll be on shanks pony for the rest of your days. Hardly important in the greater scheme of things.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

I've just heard Tim Schmidt from the Eden Project on the 1.00pm BBC news how racist the people who want out of the EU are. I looked to see what the major sources of income for Eden are ... yeah, you guessed ...

 

[Yorkshire Sam]

I have followed this thread with fascination and can see that there is a lot of different opinions... good news for that. Can I just make a plea to all those who argue one way or another that come the day please vote! Whether you leave or stay please vote. This will be only the second time that I have been asked to vote on something about the EU.. and I am 70!

But my first vote asked me whether I wished to join a Common Market ...a trade partnership. No one has ever asked me if I want to join the political union of Europe which is what we have ended up with. Before you do vote ask yourself a couple of questions ... how many commisioners of the European Union can you name? Can you even name a British one. Who elected these many commisioners?

While I can't name all the member of the British cabinet, nor the shadow cabinet, but I do know some of them and I even know some people who actually voted for them. I havent a clue who put the commissioners in power.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Sorry to be pedantic - you didn't vote on joining, you voted on whether to stay in. If the vote had been on going in, the outcome might have been different.