RJ, The general consensus is make an effort to resolve the matter even if it 'costs'. You wrote " When I installed the spindles I glued in a 12 mm dowel using pu glue and also pinned at an angle. This has always worked and I have done quite a few of these jobs without problem". It's peculiar unless the dowels have broken, if not broken by your pinning, for a gap to appear.
All things being equal it sounds like timber shrinkage. Illustrations would assist. I dislike angle-pinning although common practice these days with nail-gun fiends. If the spindles are notched-in (as in Cabinetman's illustration) it would seem to me to be not good practice. I think I'd use two dowels to spread the load. I was just thinking, my father a brilliant cabinet maker used pv glue on some jobs and hot melted horses' hoof glue on others. Maybe the horse-hoof has better binding qualities...I must look into that....
Amongst the suggestions, Max....a truly bad habit has become par-for-the-course since the battery drill was widely introduced...turning a screw through all the timber to be connected without drilling a clearance hole (similarly masonry drill bit used to drill through timber then into brick/concrete and timber to metal using HSS drill bit). While I am going...noggins no longer notched into studs even when most pacific timber is not fully seasoned and, commonly, split ....often we see expose nails or 'misses' so bad are some tradesman and so time conscious their bosses.
Another bad procedure is using the screw itself to 'hopefully' pull its head into the timber; sometimes the head shears-off.
Some tapered heads on straight-shank screws have a small extrusion supposedly to cut a countersink. It's not as good as 'the real thing'. I do think tork-head screws are an improvement, but I haven't seen any in the 'traditional' tapered wood-screw.
The result of 'no' clearance hole in a short end of timber can be/may be a split or vulnerability to a split. If doing as has been suggested or screwed or nailed as in Cabinetman's illustration a tight-clearance hole should be drilled for a screw and a slightly tighter one for the nail. I might dry-soap the nail before driving it.
The emerging of the problem at hand seems to have a general consensus of the forces and stress and strain by people in staircase use. In Cabinetman's illustration it may be possible, with access below the staircase of course, to prepare glue locate and then while glue wet, screw preferably a good quality slotted tapered screw ( i.e. not a straight-shank screw generally weak by virtue of what they are ) up from below using correct (professionally tradesman-like) clearance for the screw land. Penetration into the spindle might well be say half an inch or an inch higher than the nosing. The nosing should then keep the spindle located without splitting being a problem.
A reflection on screws, nails and eccentricity....so many stories (chuckles)
I keep very old tapered wood screws when I find them or can buy them, for use in old renovation works .....not though to the extent of (also crooked) builder 'second hand Harry' as known by his workers. I did some work at Milsons Point NSW I suppose 40 years ago. Some cottages in that highly desirable area were owned by a North Sydney school and Harry had some deal going with the school. He was not cheap...but he was a cheapskate, using sometimes good old demolition site timber which gathered 'somewhere' and would charge 'new' price.
Harry would also pick up bent nails (clean or rusty) and straighten them...unconcerned of any weakening...and use them on renovations. If Harry or one of his genius' drove a nail through or drilled through my concrete-encased conduit or inside-wall plasterboard it could take half a day to locate and more to fix. and pull-in new wiring ..back then about $600-1000 easily lost ....back then a lot of money.
Harry's view was 'these things happen...not my problem, you'd have built it into your price ....not so of course, Harry was a con-man ....I didn't go the whole hog the first time ...but It happened twice.
I refused to give up my claim the second time and was determined to 'nail' him, this old bent builder (irony) but 'conveniently' for Harry and unfortunately for me, Harry, who lived with his shrewish wife in a nice Kirribilli NSW home, looking over the Bay (so he had a 'quid') died of heart failure a few weeks after I dropped around with the invoice and told him I'd keep at him until he paid. I'm sure I have a guardian angel...but I think she'd subbie'd to a poltergeist.