I have had a fairly detailed look at this - with the very recent increase in the price cap it is increasingly attractive, but note:
- output from solar panels in summer is (I estimate) 3-4 times that in winter due to reduced daylight hours and increased cloud cover.
- conversely consumption in winter is higher due to lower daylight hours and lower temperatures. Approx. 60% of energy consumption is space heating.
- export tariffs for surplus energy generated is lower than the cost of PV - a real improvement would be for a minimum export tariff which properly reflects the price cap.
- storing surplus energy generated by hot water heating is a sensible option - although if gas central heating and hot water is already installed the benefits are marginal.
My conclusion is that with PV panels alone there is an extended payback of 10 years++. Going off grid with PVs would require huge capacity to cope with low output in winter which means huge overcapacity in summer when demand is lower and generation higher.
The next thought is storage. A battery bank is not a trivial expense but allows energy generated during the day to be consumed at night. Again the winter/summer issue rears its ugly head - sufficient battery storage to meet overnight demands in winter means a PV and battery installation which in summer has far too much capacity.
To make finances work needs EV ownership with its battery used to store surplus energy generated during the day, released for domestic use overnight. I assume draw from the EV can be managed by the user setting a minimum the residual power anticipating the next days use.
This is a sort of corrupt financial analysis as it effectively loads the cost of battery storage on to the EV, not the PV system. However in the not too distant future EVs will be the only game in town for new personal transport.
Both PV and battery installations require material investment. A grid connection will be required for (a) export and (b) meet peak demands to be financially viable. Space heating will need additional PV and battery capacity + air or ground source heat pumps (more investment).
Reducing energy costs may be through better insulation and controls. It matters not whether a KWh is saved through green generation or reduced consumption.
If driven primarily by financial considerations going off grid is not an option for most. If one is fortunate enough to have woodland as a fuel source, or if environmental concerns dominate finances one may reach a different conclusion.