I hesitate to join in on the fearsome General Chat (Off-Topic) forum, but I can’t let this line of discussion go un-answered.
To say that the human impact on climate is controversial amongst scientists is analogous to saying that there is controversy amongst humans about the shape of the earth. Roughly the same percentage of scientists working anywhere near the field view human driven climate change to be a myth as people on the planet who believe the earth to be flat.
Given that the media always represent both sides of the argument as being of equal merit, they give as much air-time to the nay-sayers as to the vast majority. This leads to some of the general public expressing views as we have already seen in this forum. If every time the planet was discussed in the media they interviewed someone from the Flat Earth Society, then the public could be forgiven for thinking that that this was a 50/50 split view. It isn’t, and neither is climate change.
A prime example of this was the MMR scare. One scientist............yes, just one......claimed he had found a link from the *** to autism. He got to put his view every time the subject was raised, and got as much air-tiime as the people who were right. The fact is, media represent an argument as a balance of opinion, when there may a thousand to one weighting on either side of the fence. If climate change sceptics were given air time in proportion to numbers who held the view, then we would almost never hear from them.
I say again, climate change is not controversial amongst scientists.
Where there is doubt and discussion amongst scientists, it is on the amount and impact of climate change, not on its existence. These arguments lead to a range of predictions for the future, but all of them are for some degree of impact, not on whether there will be any impact in the first place.
Twenty years ago, the United Nations gathered together a collection of the very best scientists in the world, (I think there are over a hundred of them in the group) and formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC). This body reports every 5 years. Their report is issued to the politicians first, who go through it line by line and argue the text, demand explanations from the scientists, and adjust the nuances to suit their views. The Bush government, loaded with oil people and famously sceptical of climate change, agree fully with the published report, as does every other government. They (the Americans) managed to have every reference to the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions removed, but the science was so overwhelming that they couldn’t argue with the conclusion that
over 90% of the observed changes to the climate had come about as a result of human activity.
Please see this link
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/index.htm for an explanation of the work of the IPCC, and its reporting and re-writing process. You will see how nothing that is controversial to any government could get through to the final report.
I wonder how many of those criticising the Al Gore film have seen it, and have seen the details of the court case? There were 12 places in which the judges found against Gore, and almost every time it was where he had said “correlates” instead of “closely correlates” or “exactly” rather than “almost exactly”. They also concluded that their findings didn’t criticise the broad thrust of the film.
For those of you who don’t understand the science, don’t fall into the trap of saying “I don’t understand, therefore it must be wrong”.
There is a general problem of all things being blamed on climate change, when they are clearly not. Norfolk and Suffolk aren’t suffering from sea-level rise (but Vanuatu is……the islands will have to be abandoned soon). No, they are suffering from falling land levels. When the ice age had mile-thick ice piled on top of Scotland, it tilted Britain downwards in the North, and like a see-saw, upwards in the South. The ice melted, the weight therefore lifted, and the south is gently settling back downwards. Climate change is leading to increased sea levels, but the rapid destruction of the East Anglian coast is much more about rebound from the ice-age.
If you are to espouse the view that Climate Change is a con, then you have to ask who is doing the conning, and why? In whose interest is it to con the planet into action to reduce carbon emissions? Obviously the normal suspects, oil companies, car manufacturers and the American Government aren’t to blame. They patently would have wished that climate change had never been heard of. I can’t think of any government or multinational company who benefit from “conning” the world into accepting climate change………..so come on, who is supposed to be conning us, and why?
Discussions on science shouldn’t come down to “I believe”……..and that phrase crops up in almost every post here with an anti-climate change message. I don’t do “belief”. I go and read the research. I suggest that instead of “believing” you guys go and do some reading. I don’t know, next you’ll be telling me that Elvis is dead!!
Mike
This is easy reading......
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report