Putin is a loser

[TRITON]

Quisling or feckless Chamberlain, I can't decide.

So to you the dying of Ukrainian people is a principle thing ? You dont want that war to end, just keep going till the death toll is in the millions.

 

[Jake]

It's their choice - I think that's a good principle, not pulling the rug out from under them so they fall under the murderous regime of a tyrant.

 

[Croolis]

It's their choice - I think that's a good principle, not pulling the rug out from under them so they fall under the murderous regime of a tyrant.

This. It's the Ukrainians war ultimately, not ours. They are defending their sovereignty, unsurpisingly. Nobody would be saying "oh let's call it off and try and save lives" if the Russians were invading central Europe.

I also don't think the Ukrainians will be forced into anything if the Americans pull their support, because I suspect European countries mostly won't pull their support (I guess I could be plenty wrong about that lol).

As for the Russians being wonderful militarily, they clearly are not. I've not looked at anything on this for months, but best part of a year ago I saw a report talking about how, with numbers quantifying it, they were using up 2nd and 3rd line materiel that had been sitting in storage like Jake says. Been a meat grinder for them. I guess this sort of reporting could be pro-western propaganda (yes, I believe we in the west do that too), but I don't believe the Russian military has moved along since cold war days like other major militaries.

 

[Fergie 307]

I have always thought that the war in Ukraine was a mistake that would ultimately be the end of Putin.
If he wants to keep throwing men into the grinder then yes he can do that, but at what cost?
He would have to drop his "special military operation" nonsense and call it what it is, and introduce much broader call up. I don't suppose that will go down well at home. Afghanistan all over again potentially.
We will see.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

A strange thread, full of strange assertions and regurgitated propaganda.

Russia is weak. Russia is evil. Putin is weak. Putin is evil. That's all you need to know, because "They" told me it is true.

Does anyone here actually know why this war started? What are the reasons for it, what the Russians demands, what will satisfy Russia? Or even when it started? Why it started? Who is at fault?

Anyone?

 

[Fergie 307]

Putin is evil. That seems a reasonable conclusion given all he has been up to over the years.
Killing his opponents, either by sending teams out to eliminate them, Salisbury etc, or by virtue of people becoming strangely accident prone once they have crossed him.
If you feel otherwise perhaps you could explain why?
As to the war. Putin believes that the break up of the Soviet Union was disastrous, he has often said this. Not unreasonable to infer that he would like to rectify that. So Ukraine the latest step in trying to rebuild the old empire?
Ukraine also has significant natural resources, so this may also be a factor.
Ukraine a sovereign nation, so it's invasion by Russia just wrong, and completely unjustified by any rational measure.
Again if you feel that is unreasonable then why?
As to Russian demands, I don't see that Russia has any right to demand anything.
Giving in to Russian demands is appeasement pure and simple.
And IMO it is important to consider that this is about the vanity of one man. I suspect if he dropped dead tomorrow the war would end very rapidly.

 

[Trainee neophyte]

Putin is evil. That seems a reasonable conclusion given all he has been up to over the years.
Killing his opponents, either by sending teams out to eliminate them, Salisbury etc, or by virtue of people becoming strangely accident prone once they have crossed him.
If you feel otherwise perhaps you could explain why?
As to the war. Putin believes that the break up of the Soviet Union was disastrous, he has often said this. Not unreasonable to infer that he would like to rectify that. So Ukraine the latest step in trying to rebuild the old empire?
Ukraine also has significant natural resources, so this may also be a factor.
Ukraine a sovereign nation, so it's invasion by Russia just wrong, and completely unjustified by any rational measure.
Again if you feel that is unreasonable then why?
As to Russian demands, I don't see that Russia has any right to demand anything.
Giving in to Russian demands is appeasement pure and simple.
And IMO it is important to consider that this is about the vanity of one man. I suspect if he dropped dead tomorrow the war would end very rapidly.

So no, you don't know why Russia invaded. Putin just woke up one day feeling peevish, and launched the flying monkeys. It's as good a reason as any, I suppose. And why let reality get in the way of a good narrative? Putin is evil, and that's all you need to know.

There are reasons for the invasion, but they involve the West being its usual reprehensible, violent, psychopathic self.

The Russians view this war as existential. It's why they keep getting all these volunteers. Does anyone know the history of Kursk, and why it was therefore a truly insane place to invade with German tanks a second time if you want the Russians to come to an agreement? It's almost as if someone doesn't want the war to end...but I digress.

Back to the important questions: Why did Russia resort to a military incursion when they obviously weren't ready? What do they hope to gain? What are the minimum goals they will accept? This information is publicly available (unless you are blocked from accessing various parts of the Internet for your safety and comfort, that is).

 

[Scruples]

A strange thread, full of strange assertions and regurgitated propaganda.

Russia is weak. Russia is evil. Putin is weak. Putin is evil. That's all you need to know, because "They" told me it is true.

Does anyone here actually know why this war started? What are the reasons for it, what the Russians demands, what will satisfy Russia? Or even when it started? Why it started? Who is at fault?

Anyone?

From my observations over the last 40 years, I'd say that when the USSR broke up and those states formed their own independence, Russia had appeared weaker to the world. They were not ony weak but fallible and had lost their credibility as a world power.

Then they went through Perestroika. the restructuring process where the cleverer Russians made big money but the people didn't like that and it frightened them. They seemed happier with the status quo they had. It seemed that being under a dictatorship suited them more than new freedoms. The did get a McDonalds in Moscow, I remember. And they had Beryozka shops were only foreigners could buy luxury goods and booze. They were set up up attract as much foreign currency as they could. Russian currency didn't really have any exchange value when I was there.

Having visited the USSR during the change, I saw how poor people could be. How they were controlled and how the KGB watched everything and everyone. I stayed in Murmansk and saw their docks and their nuclear subs rotting on the sea wall. I saw the military men, no women, in uniform constantly in motion throughout the port. Most of them carrying a single rose for the loved ones they were leaving or just coming back to. They looked cold, blank.

I think Putin wanted the break-away states back and set out to gain power and start the process. He's been successful so far but not without costs. The last estimate I saw estiated the Russian losses in the Ukraine 'action' at 700,000. I know the families of those who died are bitter but dare say nothing ot anyone, even the people in their own comunities. He's got it made.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

If you've not watched it, this is an eye opener -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0d3hwl1/russia-19851999-traumazone

 

[Blackswanwood]

I think Putin wanted the break-away states back and set out to gain power and start the process.

I agree and it’s confirmed by his “essay” on the history of Russia which paints a picture of Ukraine’s “rightful position” being subservient to Russia.

 

[John Brown]

If you've not watched it, this is an eye opener -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0d3hwl1/russia-19851999-traumazone

BBC. Can't be true...

 

[selectortone]

The last estimate I saw estiated the Russian losses in the Ukraine 'action' at 700,000.

Military and civilian deaths there in WWII are conservatively estimated at 27 million. In Russia life is cheap - and certainly no great concern to Putin.

 

[Jake]

Oh I see the reinforcements have been called to the front, here.

 

[Fergie 307]

So no, you don't know why Russia invaded. Putin just woke up one day feeling peevish, and launched the flying monkeys. It's as good a reason as any, I suppose. And why let reality get in the way of a good narrative? Putin is evil, and that's all you need to know.

There are reasons for the invasion, but they involve the West being its usual reprehensible, violent, psychopathic self.

The Russians view this war as existential. It's why they keep getting all these volunteers. Does anyone know the history of Kursk, and why it was therefore a truly insane place to invade with German tanks a second time if you want the Russians to come to an agreement? It's almost as if someone doesn't want the war to end...but I digress.

Back to the important questions: Why did Russia resort to a military incursion when they obviously weren't ready? What do they hope to gain? What are the minimum goals they will accept? This information is publicly available (unless you are blocked from accessing various parts of the Internet for your safety and comfort, that is).

I am fully aware of a lot of reasons that have been put forward.
The threat to Russia posed by NATO expansion.
Ukraine taken over by Nazis.
That it was a pre emptive strike because Ukraine was about to invade Russia etc etc. Putin may sell these ideas to his people may even believe it himself, although I very much doubt that.
All demonstrably drivel.
Do you have anything new?
And the west being it's usual reprehensible violent psychopathic self?
You don't think Russian and the old USSR displayed any of those tendencies?
Remind me, how did they build and maintain their post war empire? Was it a cuddly collective of like minded souls, or brutal repression by dictatorship?
From day 1 of the revolution I would suggest they excelled themselves in all these areas. Their leaders, as distinct from the Russian people themselves, have tended to be some of the most disingenuous, treacherous liars on the face of the earth, particularly Stalin who Putin appears to be seeking to emulate.

 

[Fergie 307]

And if you think characterising Putin as evil is unfair then please explain why.

How would you characterise him?

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

I have extended family still in Ukraine. My grandad was born in that region in 1925 - although borders have always been fluid and country that people were living in were ill-defined.
My grandad had to escape Nazi during WWII due to ethnic cleansing of these areas. Nazi just wanted all men killed. He escaped with resistance help, through Germany, Arrived in UK and became naturalised.

So, yeah, I have a good deal of info from my now deceased grandad about the reality of the history of Ukraine, Romania, Moldova, and Belarus. Most of it not available in media, history books, etc... My grandad's sister is still in Ukraine and I think aged 94. They are tough as old boots out there. She was born on that property and has chosen that she will die there too. I believe that she still makes the vodka for local villagers... The younger family have fled to places like Germany.

I am also currently Serving. 29 years in. And have access to other info ...

Most of the info you will find in the media is a bit pants and full of conjecture and plain bad analysis.

Bottom line is that Putin covets Ukraine. He sees it as the birthplace of Russia itself. White Russia. There are also reasons that it is "valuable to the Russian State", (access to Black Sea and land bridge to Crimea amongst them) but that is not Putin's driving desire - although it is how he sells it to the hierarchy within his military and industrial complex. Other misinformations are used to rouse public feelings about the war and this is one of the reasons that "volunteers" come forward to fight. Many are not exactly volunteers, though, and this is a tragedy on an industrial scale

That said, those who offer the opinion that withdrawal of aid to Ukraine "because of the loss of human life" (Putin is driving this war) or "because nukes" are, in my very strong opinion, using decision points that are contrary to their own aims (self-contradictory) and probably missing the most vital parts of the analysis for decision making process...

First, history has shown us in the most clear and certain way possible, that capitulating to an aggressor is self-defeating. They'll be back to take, take, take, ever more if not resisted in some way.
Second, just kow-towing because nukes is also self-defeating. The nuclear deterrent then becomes a non-deterrent.

Bottom line for the analysts is this:

What will happen next??
What will happen after that??

 

[Terry - Somerset]

Putin is a boomer. Unlike those born in the UK, he was brought into a world in which 20m+ Russians died in WW2, grew up and started his career during the heights of the cold war. Life (I suspect) was tough in the 1950-60s for a kid born to a factory worker and naval conscript.

The collapse of the Soviet Union would have tested his world view as he rose through the ranks.

The invasion of Crimea went unopposed by the West - possibly as it was culturally very closely aligned with Russia. Eastern Ukraine has similar close ties - culture, language etc. Concerned at the expansion of NATO and EU, Ukraine was an obvious target.

Before invasion I suspect he thought it would be a simple few week campaign (as did I) to the borders with Poland, Romania etc. He had massive weapons and manpower superiority, and the Crimea experience "proved" the reluctance of the west to get involved.

The West has provided just enough support to stall the conflict in static positions for the last two years - an bit of an advance here, a little retreat there. The question is - what now?

• withdraw further funding and support - Ukraine loses rapidly. Many dead. Putin bolstered. Potential further threat in Europe. Not a good solution for Ukraine or the West.
• continue providing "just enough" support - Russia will not want to acknowledge impotence or apparent defeat. War could drag on for years. Lots more dead. Would keep Russia occupied reducing further European conflict risk.
• increase support - it is a war Ukraine cannot "win" with troops in Red Square. Russia likely to escalate rather than surrender. Remember Afghanistan - Russia were there for 11 years before withdrawing.

Assuming bringing the conflict to an end would be a good thing (there could be arguments for extending it indefinitely) the solution must be negotiated - there is no military option.

This requires (a) that Putin has some reward he can sell to evidence "success" (redrawn borders), and (b) that Zelensky has no choice but to accept the outcome (do it or support is withdrawn).

The morality of such a settlement - possibly rewarding the aggressor - is questionable. But it may be the price necessary to end a destructive conflict.

 

[Jake]

Meanwhile all the idiotic 'realists' who assume Russia is undefeatable ignore the fact that its economy is now collapsing. All the 'have to settle' talk is because Putin is losing and knows he is, and knows that Trump will throw him a lifeline if Western opinion shifts enough to make that politically feasible.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

Putin is a boomer. Unlike those born in the UK, he was brought into a world in which 20m+ Russians died in WW2, grew up and started his career during the heights of the cold war. Life (I suspect) was tough in the 1950-60s for a kid born to a factory worker and naval conscript.

The collapse of the Soviet Union would have tested his world view as he rose through the ranks.

The invasion of Crimea went unopposed by the West - possibly as it was culturally very closely aligned with Russia. Eastern Ukraine has similar close ties - culture, language etc. Concerned at the expansion of NATO and EU, Ukraine was an obvious target.

Before invasion I suspect he thought it would be a simple few week campaign (as did I) to the borders with Poland, Romania etc. He had massive weapons and manpower superiority, and the Crimea experience "proved" the reluctance of the west to get involved.

The West has provided just enough support to stall the conflict in static positions for the last two years - an bit of an advance here, a little retreat there. The question is - what now?

• withdraw further funding and support - Ukraine loses rapidly. Many dead. Putin bolstered. Potential further threat in Europe. Not a good solution for Ukraine or the West.
• continue providing "just enough" support - Russia will not want to acknowledge impotence or apparent defeat. War could drag on for years. Lots more dead. Would keep Russia occupied reducing further European conflict risk.
• increase support - it is a war Ukraine cannot "win" with troops in Red Square. Russia likely to escalate rather than surrender. Remember Afghanistan - Russia were there for 11 years before withdrawing.

Assuming bringing the conflict to an end would be a good thing (there could be arguments for extending it indefinitely) the solution must be negotiated - there is no military option.

This requires (a) that Putin has some reward he can sell to evidence "success" (redrawn borders), and (b) that Zelensky has no choice but to accept the outcome (do it or support is withdrawn).

The morality of such a settlement - possibly rewarding the aggressor - is questionable. But it may be the price necessary to end a destructive conflict.

The follow on question then re-asserts itself.

From my previous:

What will happen next??
What will happen after that??

If the west supports the ceding of territory to Putin, then what next?? Do you think that will be the end of it. Or do you think that Putin will reset, then launch another invasion?


Every time I post on this thread I always have front and centre of my mind - the social media 'phone video images of that civilian running away from a tank that is trying to run him over on invasion day. <shivers>
Use that image as your barometer of what you believe would happen next.
Also note that eastern Moldova has a "Russian Enclave".

 

[Jake]

Russia is weak. Russia is evil. Putin is weak. Putin is evil. That's all you need to know.

Good summary, thanks.