One-*** efficacy questions

[Blackswanwood]

So India looking like it might have peaked, seems @Selwyn was right.

Not quite sure why deaths are following cases so closely, usually a 3 week or so lag here, anyone know why that is?

I don’t but I do believe that the numbers coming out of India are being understated and there is massive variability in the availability of everything COVID related. It’s also incorrect to say India has not locked down as several large cities and states have. Mumbai for instance locked down early and is in a better position now than say Kolkata (please let’s not reopen theories on whether lockdowns work - I’m not expressing an opinion just saying what the current position is). In Bangalore a lockdown has also been applied and Police are enforcing it with roadblocks.

I am responsible for some substantial bpo sites in India and am getting daily briefings from people on the ground. It’s grim.

The availability of testing is sporadic and there is a heightened Level of scepticism and fatalism that is leading to some not bothering with it. It is widely accepted that the number of deaths is being understated.

My view is that an armchair analysis is not going to yield robust conclusions.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

I wholly agree with Blackswan wood.

Indian cases and deaths are grossly under-reported - by a factor between 3 and 10. Figures based on a swift google and sites generally regarded as fairly objective - eg: Economist and BBC.

Reasons are manifold - political reluctance to admit how bad it is, lack of testing, large rural populations remote from medical facilities, poverty etc.

Basing any analysis of lockdown effectiveness on reported figures so fundamentally flawed is of zero value.

 

[Rorschach]

Just Anti-facts

One could level the same accusation against you.

 

[Chris152]

I see they're thinking of bringing forward second jabs for those in areas with rapidly increasing cases of the Indian variant, and discussing regional measures again. It's clearly got the boffs in white coats worried. About 500 to 1300 in a week (and that data's a week or two out of date), just as everyone thinks things are heading back to normal. Can't help but feel we've seen this before.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57109660
ps Not remotely interested in hearing how it's not a serious disease, npis don't work, doesn't matter coz it's already peaked, i think i'm young and ok, i don't want the vaccine, failings of 'msm' etc

 

[Rorschach]

@Blackswanwood and @Terry - Somerset you could be right, I don't know. I am basing it on official figures and not supposition and anecdotal evidence. All countries are massaging their figures to come degree I am sure, even the UK but we can only comment on what we are told.

 

[RobinBHM]

One could level the same accusation against you.

Of course you can level that accusation my way, but it won't get you far as my posts are backed up with links to verified sources.

It is rather amusing that you refute posts of mine that include links.....but you fail to state where or why.

 

[Rorschach]

Of course you can level that accusation my way, but it won't get you far as my posts are backed up with links to verified sources.

It is rather amusing that you refute posts of mine that include links.....but you fail to state where or why.

It's like talking to a brick wall with you. I have provided sources, you don't like them, not my problem.

 

[Blackswanwood]

@Blackswanwood and @Terry - Somerset you could be right, I don't know. I am basing it on official figures and not supposition and anecdotal evidence. All countries are massaging their figures to come degree I am sure, even the UK but we can only comment on what we are told.

I'm genuinely surprised that you see it as the UK massaging their figures - what points you to that? I'd agree the data is imperfect particularly around cause of death. Just interested - not looking for an argument!

 

[John Brown]

Opinion stated as facts. Source not credible. Wicker man and ad homonyms.

Hey this is easy! No wonder you do it all the time

Interestingly, hominem and homonym are not the same thing. Almost homophones, but not quite.

 

[Rorschach]

I'm genuinely surprised that you see it as the UK massaging their figures - what points you to that? I'd agree the data is imperfect particularly around cause of death. Just interested - not looking for an argument!

Well it's the cause of death really. I am not saying the UK government is under or over reporting the raw figures for deaths (all causes) but I think they are being a bit dodgy with their figures on cause of death and especially with the modelling figures they use/used in their briefings.
I think it is very disingenuous to say X countries figures are misleading but the UK is perfect, all governments have an agenda and are not beyond lying to the populous.

A simple of example of this for the UK is that we are constantly given the 127k deaths figure saying they died "in the past year", this is indeed true (near enough a year anyway) but without the context that it covers two winter respiratory seasons. This 127k figure is then compared against a yearly mortality of approx 600k, but again, that 600k isn't spread out evenly over a year so if you took a year that had two winter respiratory virus seasons added together it would be much higher than 600k. So while the figures they tell us are more or less correct, they are being massaged and used in a way that is misleading in order to generate maximum fear and impact.

 

[Rorschach]

Interestingly, hominem and homonym are not the same thing. Almost homophones, but not quite.

Wooooooosshhh!

 

[John Brown]

Wooooooosshhh!

Is that the noise of the aircraft flying overhead in the opening sequence of Whicker's World?

 

[Rorschach]

Is that the noise of the aircraft flying overhead in the opening sequence of Whicker's World?

I'm not old enough to have seen that reference

 

[hairy]

Early last year it was openly reported that the UK was essentially going looking for cases to get as good a handle of how much Covid there was here. Germany had a more reserved manner of reporting and so were showing fewer cases, and so were seen in the MSM as doing a "better" job of being in control. Belgium openly stated they will measure and count every single case they can get their hands on since that info can only help in the control, and said they don't care how bad it looks.
If you look on the UK Govt site they say the two different departments measue deaths in different ways, so there isn't consistancy even within our Govt. Maybe not massaging, but what a Covid death is varies both here and worldwide.
ONS " Death certification as involving COVID-19 does not depend on a positive test. "
PHE "....all deaths where a positive test for COVID-19 has been confirmed"
from The different uses of figures on deaths related to COVID-19 published by DHSC and the ONS - Office for National Statistics

 

[Rorschach]

I wonder if this view will ever get mainstream acceptance?

https://thecritic.co.uk/lockdown-was-a-choice/

 

[TominDales]

I see they're thinking of bringing forward second jabs for those in areas with rapidly increasing cases of the Indian variant, and discussing regional measures again. It's clearly got the boffs in white coats worried. About 500 to 1300 in a week (and that data's a week or two out of date), just as everyone thinks things are heading back to normal. Can't help but feel we've seen this before.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57109660

It will be vital to see how much the UK has learnt this past year and can put into practice with this flare-up. We know that new variants will appear, almost certainly they will be imported from an area with high incidents of covid such as India, so this is to be expected. We have all the tools to supress this flare-up.
1. We have huge Track and Trace capacity, so infections should be able to be isolated locally.
2. We know how to isolate and if necessary lock down locally whilst still opening up the rest of the country
3. We have huge vaccine capacity (ca 500,000 per day) so could choose to ring-vaccinate locally in Bolton all adults and teenagers at the expense of slightly slowing down the national role-out.

This may mean adapting current practice, especially for point 3 - it would necessitate a tweaking the current vaccine roll-out nationally by age to make an exception in Bolton. I would fill me with confidence if our PH can quickly contain this outbreak, whilst continuing to relax restrictions on a national basis.

My understanding is the vaccines, while are not as effective against the Indian variant as against the Kent variants, do reduce both incidence and severity of infection, so should be able to snuff out this outbreak.

 

[Rorschach]

@TominDales

1. Yes we do, but T&T is almost useless against an airborne virus because it spreads without close physical contact.
2. No we don't, we have never carried out effective local lockdowns, we knew we couldn't and that's why the government never tried.
3. Vaccination takes at least 3 weeks to have an effect, by that time any spike has long since had a chance to escape the "ring" and if vaccination doesn't totally stop transmission it would be pointless anyway. Better to keep with vaccinated the vulnerable. It doesn't matter if the entire country is infected as long as it isn't making anyone seriously ill.

 

[Blackswanwood]

Well it's the cause of death really. I am not saying the UK government is under or over reporting the raw figures for deaths (all causes) but I think they are being a bit dodgy with their figures on cause of death and especially with the modelling figures they use/used in their briefings.
I think it is very disingenuous to say X countries figures are misleading but the UK is perfect, all governments have an agenda and are not beyond lying to the populous.

A simple of example of this for the UK is that we are constantly given the 127k deaths figure saying they died "in the past year", this is indeed true (near enough a year anyway) but without the context that it covers two winter respiratory seasons. This 127k figure is then compared against a yearly mortality of approx 600k, but again, that 600k isn't spread out evenly over a year so if you took a year that had two winter respiratory virus seasons added together it would be much higher than 600k. So while the figures they tell us are more or less correct, they are being massaged and used in a way that is misleading in order to generate maximum fear and impact.

I agree on the messaging/spin but in fairness to ONS all the data says what it is for those who can be bothered to look - that’s probably a minority and compounds the misunderstanding.

Cheers

 

[TominDales]

@TominDales

1. Yes we do, but T&T is almost useless against an airborne virus because it spreads without close physical contact.
2. No we don't, we have never carried out effective local lockdowns, we knew we couldn't and that's why the government never tried.
3. Vaccination takes at least 3 weeks to have an effect, by that time any spike has long since had a chance to escape the "ring" and if vaccination doesn't totally stop transmission it would be pointless anyway. Better to keep with vaccinated the vulnerable. It doesn't matter if the entire country is infected as long as it isn't making anyone seriously ill.

I tend to agree with you as we seem ineffective at managing the spread of infection in the UK. (edited to clarity in the am...)

The point I want to make is:
We now have a good argument for an effective local lockdown.
If you vaccinated the entire population of Bolton and Darwin combined population ca 170,000, it could be done in a day. and then locked down vigorously for 3 weeks you could snuff out this variant. I suspect people could stomach a lockdown if they could see and end to it. And 170,000 jabs would not impinge much on the daily rate of ca 600k at the moment.
I think people would tolerate very local and short duration lockdowns if it enabled the country to get back to normality. The problem we now have, is we are used to the UK being slow to respond, allowing a bigger problem and then it last for months. So politically we have probably missed this boat, but short lockdowns combined with an effective vaccine - which is relatively plentiful is a powerful place to be.

 

[Jake]

1. Yes we do, but T&T is almost useless against an airborne virus because it spreads without close physical contact.

There are many countries which have falsified that idea by having an effective TTI system. The uselessness is in the implementation. Ours was/is - thank Dido etc.