Is it me or

[LeeAkeroyd]

It has been going up above the normal for the last 2 years, my main supplier warned me back then it was getting silly, then the other day he informed me if I was doing any quotes that again he'd received notification that as of 1st May it was rising 15% across all timbers. Thinking I was finally using up scraps & stock to make space it looks like I'll be refilling my workshop again before May 1st !

Wait till the 2nd quarter hits, we've been informed by one our Swedish suppliers that the prices may rise another £100m3 (for June) equivalent of an increase of 25% on the current prices!

 

[LeeAkeroyd]

I've been doing some work at my folks place and they wanted some shelves put up to create an airing cupboard, my father being the man he is, he insisted I use 4x2's for the framing, way overkill, anyway I went to wickes 2 weeks ago and I'd say over 50% of the racks were empty of PAR, the only wood readily available for the framing was pressure treated, so now I'm going to have to stainblock and paint the wood. (thankfully Travis Perkins had some 1x1 PAR for the slats)

There are several american youtube channels I watch whom have also mentioned issues with availability and prices, so I don't think Brexit is the sole reason in the UK.

It isn't, Brexit is probably the least of our worries concerning timber price increases.

 

[Tocaliteb]

While I’d like to blame Brexit, the current timber price issue is a global one and not solely UK. Timber prices have typically been volatile, but usually come back to around normal in the past.

I don’t know what has caused this particular price spike, but this one does seem extraordinary. I feel quite fortunate that my local timber merchant is only charging 30-40% more than they were six months ago.

Source: LBS

 

[Chippysu]

Wait till the 2nd quarter hits, we've been informed by one our Swedish suppliers that the prices may rise another £100m3 (for June) equivalent of an increase of 25% on the current prices!

Blimey & I thought 15% was a leap! Thanks for that, I'm finding the quality dropping too, can normally get some good clear lengths but they were embarrassed when I was having to pull out & sort through so much, more knots than a sailors hanky.

 

[MickCheese]

I've just had a quote for two uPVC windows in a small bungalow ..................................... £2038.

I too had two uPVC windows fitted to a bungalow, £1000. Shop around!

 

[Phil Pascoe]

When?

 

[MickCheese]

When?

About 6 weeks ago

 

[sawdust1]

Wanted a cheap softwood 2ft 6, door frame, so went to Howdens, £72.30 + vat, Asked to see the manager as he does me some good prices, after lots of finger taping on the key board he say's nope thats the best i can do, Crazy!

 

[RobinBHM]

Does that explain why timber prices have risen world wide?

It is certainly a factor in UK.

Haulage costs from EU to UK have gone up by around 50%
And there is a massive shortage of customs agents, a real issue for SMEs

Reduction in capacity at logging and sawmills due to Covid has caused global supply shortages and is the main reason for global price increases.

 

[Jonm]

While I’d like to blame Brexit, the current timber price issue is a global one and not solely UK. Timber prices have typically been volatile, but usually come back to around normal in the past.

I don’t know what has caused this particular price spike, but this one does seem extraordinary. I feel quite fortunate that my local timber merchant is only charging 30-40% more than they were six months ago.

Source: LBS

Are you sure this Graph is timber prices rather than share prices or some other index. The source is Nasdaq, I quote “Both the Dow and the Nasdaq, then, are terms that refer to an index, or an average of a great many numbers derived from the price movements of certain stocks“.

 

[danst96]

Timber price issue is global, all US woodworkers are talking about it, in NZ they have got such a severe timber shortage several housing projects have been put on hold.

The biggest contributors are increased shipping costs (brexit is not the main reason for increase in shipping JFYI, this is largely caused by the lack of air travel. Pre-Covid, 60% of the worlds shipping was travelling on passenger airplanes. More and more freight is being shipped by road/sea pushing costs up because more demand than capacity. Where I work, our shipping (import and export) costs doubled to August last year and have since more than doubled again) , A container from China used to be circa £1800-2500 in 2019, at its worst last year, the cheapest you could get was around £10-12k a container. This isnt just a China-UK issue, its affecting all countries and has a knock on effect on everything and unfortunately for some, not brexit's fault)

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Timber price issue is global, all US woodworkers are talking about it, in NZ they have got such a severe timber shortage several housing projects have been put on hold.

As they are a huge exporter of timber that's probably because it's fetching more sold to China than on the domestic market. I doubt there's a shortage as such.

 

[danst96]

As they are a huge exporter of timber that's probably because it's fetching more sold to China than on the domestic market. I doubt there's a shortage as such.

No I believe the NZ issue runs deeper, something to do with sawmills being closed down and consolidated to one site by their government and that move has gone badly wrong and leaving with a massive shortage.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

Ah, I'll get some more info from my b.i.l. an ex joiner in Auckland.

 

[robgul]

Just been to get some treated timber from Travis Perkeins - price was hiked up about 9% this morning compared with website price yesterday . . . checked and yes that's the price today - the only upside is that a) they seem to have masses of stock of timber compared with Jewsons across the road, and b) most of it is pretty straight.

 

[Chippysu]

Timber price issue is global, all US woodworkers are talking about it, in NZ they have got such a severe timber shortage several housing projects have been put on hold.

The biggest contributors are increased shipping costs (brexit is not the main reason for increase in shipping JFYI, this is largely caused by the lack of air travel. Pre-Covid, 60% of the worlds shipping was travelling on passenger airplanes. More and more freight is being shipped by road/sea pushing costs up because more demand than capacity. Where I work, our shipping (import and export) costs doubled to August last year and have since more than doubled again) , A container from China used to be circa £1800-2500 in 2019, at its worst last year, the cheapest you could get was around £10-12k a container. This isnt just a China-UK issue, its affecting all countries and has a knock on effect on everything and unfortunately for some, not brexit's fault)

Thank you for that insight, it'll all settle again, eventually!

 

[Buckeye]

Talked to my local timber yard the other day. He said hard to get AWO or other US hardwoods as they are using nearly all they produce and not exporting as much as their domestic demand is so high. He wouldn't give me a price list as prices are changing weekly.

 

[TominDales]

From what I can see several factors happening at once. Its usually a combination of things that causes a large rise in commodity prices.
1. Global supply demand in-balence caused by COVID - low processing due to lockdown and high demand from consumers renovation homes. Wood Industry Prices Archives - Global Wood Markets Info
2. A lot of wood is processed in China and Chinas economy is running hot - up GDP 18% this year cf 3 to 5% last 5 years due to covid related demand for consumer goods. That has created shortages in shipping containers etc, not just for wood. This has lead to world price rises
3. Brexit has added an extra UK cost to these supply chain issues, ports full, customers agents and also the extra expense of serving the UK market. Brexit on its own would have only added a few % to bulk wood, specialties different and speciality lacquers will be more highly impacted by the fragmentation of supply to& from the EU market.

 

[Nick.]

A container from China used to be circa £1800-2500 in 2019, at its worst last year, the cheapest you could get was around £10-12k a container.

Agree - containers to UK are still at around $12k - they are now also using (blaming) Suez blockage for continued high pricing as many ships have re-routed.

 

[LeeAkeroyd]

Some information from within the timber industry which helps explain the current situation.

As we fast approach the anniversary of the first Covid lockdown, few, if any of us could have forecast the tumultuous market we have seen over the last twelve months. Unprecedented global demand for construction grade timber and associated wood products has led to supply shortages and driven record price increases. Whilst I think we all hoped for more stability in 2021, the reality is that this year is shaping up to be far more difficult and we will once again see issues with supply and continued price inflation. The reasons are many and varied but essentially we are experiencing a ‘perfect storm’ scenario where pretty much every developed country across the world is seeing a surge in construction just as many markets are switching increasingly to timber based solutions or increasing the percentage of timber used in already established markets.



Conscious that you have to make an argument to your own customers for price increases and more importantly, an argument for what is likely to come, I am listing some of the major reasons below. It would be easy to go into a lot of detail and I’d be happy to discuss any of the points in more detail with you if you wish but these are the headline issues, in no particular order.

• The growth of Mass timber construction solutions has seen huge investment in Glulam, KVH and CLT facilities with many factories planned or under construction, all of which will require significant volumes and all of which will essentially come from the same logs as standard construction grades. Many existing factories are now experiencing problems with sourcing good quality fibre and having initially lagged behind general lumber in applying increases, they are now reacting to the increased costs by pushing through record price increases.
• Asian economies are recovering strongly and with their existing inventories at very low levels, they are expecting very high demand through 2021 and beyond. The Japanese market has just agreed an increase of circa $100/m3 with Canadian mills and whilst China is coming from a low base, prices are rising rapidly now and we know from history that these markets are true commodity buyers i.e. they need the product, they pay what’s needed to secure it.
• Housing starts in the USA have reached an annualised figure of 1.6 million and are expected to go higher still. Demand for timber has grown accordingly pushing prices to record levels with, according to some reports, potential for further substantial increases. This in turn, has fuelled increased demand for Nordic and central European fibre and whilst, in real terms, the actual volume shipped from the Nordic countries isn’t significantly greater, as you would expect with a commodity, the price in the US has had a significant effect on the overall level.
• The shortage of C24 across the UK and Ireland has been well documented. Many large merchant groups have taken their usual position i.e. we cannot afford to have gaps on our shelves and have therefore been prepared to pay ‘whatever it takes’ to secure the required volumes. Since May last year, C24 prices have risen every month bar two and that shows no sign of abating. With most manufacturing businesses choosing to buy quarterly, TR26 and CLS have been playing catch-up at every negotiation and Q2 and Q3 look as if they will be very similar.
• On a more local level, Irish sawmills are suffering a severe log shortage due to an ongoing felling licence dispute. In recent times they have taken an increasingly strong position in the UK fencing and merchant markets and as they struggle, buyers are looking to replace these volumes from elsewhere. The current Irish construction lockdown has actually helped this situation short term but when the lockdown ends, every indication is that we will see a very strong recovery with a significant increase in demand for imported fibre.
• Pulp prices fell sharply towards the end of 2020 and in many regions, if forest owners cannot sell the pulp logs as well as the saw logs, they choose not to fell. This impacted log availability and whilst pulp prices are slowly recovering, any interruption in so fragile a supply chain has implications.
• Covid continues to have an influence as flare-ups in producing Countries effect production. Whilst this would not be hugely significant in a normal market, when there is so little room for manoeuvre, even the loss of a few percent causes problems.

In essence, I am afraid the message is a stark one. The bad weather since the start of the year has meant that landed inventories have improved a little but in reality, that is just papering over the cracks. Supply will remain very difficult and there is nothing to suggest that prices will not continue to rise and rise steeply throughout 2021.