Heatwave

[Phil Pascoe]

 

[julianf]

"Well, you have your opinion, and I have mine."

 

[Scruples]

Comparing a single year to another single year is basic at best.

Plus what I don't get is many older people I have spoken to often say, "back in my day young laddie, we had summers like this all the time"

No, we didn't. We just think we did. We remember the long, warm, sunny days of summer during school holidays that seemed to last forever and forget the wet ones.

 

[Keith Cocker]

Comparing a single year to another single year is basic at best.

Plus what I don't get is many older people I have spoken to often say, "back in my day young laddie, we had summers like this all the time"

We didn’t. I’m 69. Is that old enough?

 

[Keith Cocker]

Given the unusually high numbers of sunspots and the knowledge that there is a connection between the number of sun spots and the average temperature on earth it's far more complicated than most think!

We had a student at College that said that sunspots cause all sorts of things. He was widely regarded as a loonie.

 

[niemeyjt]

OK

European Industry is now using more and more renewable and "green" energy. Meanwhile, China and India are opening new coal-fired power stations to power their industry.

So who is prepared to stop supporting Chinese Industry built on polluting energy?

So that is stop buying the various rebadged machines from Axminster, Record and others. Stop buying Milwaukee, Ryobi, Green Bosch etc etc.

 

[Jacob]

OK

European Industry is now using more and more renewable and "green" energy. Meanwhile, China and India are opening new coal-fired power stations to power their industry.

So who is prepared to stop supporting Chinese Industry built on polluting energy?

So that is stop buying the various rebadged machines from Axminster, Record and others. Stop buying Milwaukee, Ryobi, Green Bosch etc etc.

They say they are having to do a massive catch up with the west but at the same time are massively investing in renewables.
It's likely that our solar panels, batteries and other green gubbins will be supplied by the Chinese, along with woodwork tools and squeaky toys.

 

[stuart little]

The latest sign of 'warming' - Italian Dolomite glacier 'calving' .

 

[Jacob]

What do expect to find if you watch videos put together by loonies and fruitcakes?

 

[Fergie 307]

"Well, you have your opinion, and I have mine."

Dr Phil 's chart is interesting. Shows a 5° increase from the beginning to about 9000BC. This had nothing to do with human activity. If you go back further I am sure you would see even greater swings up and down that were entirely natural phenomena. I seem to recall a documentary where they theorized that the most likely explanation for historical changes in temperature was changes in solar activity, which seems sensible. So my view is that yes we are contributing enormously to global warming, not least of all in the speed of the changes, and we need to stop doing so. But we may also be seeing this superimposed as it were on an underlying natural upward trend. If this is the case then thinking can stop it entirely is delusional.
Would be interesting to see a similar chart covering a longer period.

 

[Jacob]

Dr Phil 's chart is interesting. Shows a 5° increase from the beginning to about 9000BC. This had nothing to do with human activity. If you go back further I am sure you would see even greater swings up and down that were entirely natural phenomena. I seem to recall a documentary where they theorized that the most likely explanation for historical changes in temperature was changes in solar activity, which seems sensible. So my view is that yes we are contributing enormously to global warming, not least of all in the speed of the changes, and we need to stop doing so. But we may also be seeing this superimposed as it were on an underlying natural upward trend. If this is the case then thinking can stop it entirely is delusional.
Would be interesting to see a similar chart covering a longer period.

The whole point of the science is to identify and distinguish the human contribution from other factors. They have not been ignored! Scientists really are not that stupid!
There's another argument that the holocene (11000 year long period of relative stability just ending) is itself a result of human activity (steady move from hunter-gatherer to farmer) so it works both ways and is in our power to influence, should we choose to.

 

[Scruples]

We had a student at College that said that sunspots cause all sorts of things. He was widely regarded as a loonie.

How about the fact that the temperature of the inner atmosphere is warmer than the outer atmosphere, indicating that the gasses building up in the lower atmosphere are causing heat generated on Earth to be retained rather than being lost to space? We are warming up, there is no doubt. It is now up to science to determine how much is natural change and how much is man-made change and is there's anything, realistically, that we can, and want, to do about it.

 

[Phil Pascoe]

What do expect to find if you watch videos put together by loonies and fruitcakes?

How on earth did I guess you'd say that?

 

[John Brown]

We didn’t. I’m 69. Is that old enough?

We didn't, either. And I'm also 69.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

There is always a danger that data is selected to prove a preconceived point rather than develop a coherent theory. Temperature for the period from 1000AD to present day shows the medieval warming period with temperatures similar to today interrupted by the 17th C little ice age.

I am not in denial - I do believe human activity is having a major impact on climate and the wider environment. So I ask the question - "why am I bothered". Over the next:

• 20 years - the outcome may very directly affect me - in 30 years I will likely be history
• 60 years - I would prefer my children enjoy a happy, fulfilling, safe existence
• 100 years - my grandchildren able to enjoy that which their parents and grandparents had

Thereafter any personal link with the future will be completely severed. My concern for periods thereafter diminishes rapidly.

Strapline on todays TV news program - "by the end of the century temperatures such as this will be commonplace". By 2100 the youngest viewer now alive will be over 80, and experience temperatures which are already common in Mediterranean and tropical climes. So what?

The answer to the question "am I bothered" is "not very much". Climate adaptation and mitigation strategies are the easy bit if the will is there - although immediate crises often take priority,

Overpopulation is the fundamental driver of environmental impacts (climate, resources, pollution etc) and resides in the much too difficult to do anything about category. Apologists find data supporting the proposition that in developed countries, populations are stabilising or even reducing slightly.

IMHO this is complacency masquerading as rationality. Without addressing population, all climate change actions will achieve is (at best) a delay in increasing global temperatures.

 

[Fergie 307]

The whole point of the science is to identify and distinguish the human contribution from other factors. They have not been ignored! Scientists really are not that stupid!
There's another argument that the holocene (11000 year long period of relative stability just ending) is itself a result of human activity (steady move from hunter-gatherer to farmer) so it works both ways and is in our power to influence, should we choose to.

I agree scientists are not generally stupid, but they also often disagree. I wasn't aware that there was any consensus on what the underlying trend is, or what exactly determines it.

 

[Jacob]

I agree scientists are not generally stupid, but they also often disagree. I wasn't aware that there was any consensus on what the underlying trend is, or what exactly determines it.

You've got some catching up to do then!
Met office is a good starting point. What is climate change?

 

[John Brown]

There is a well known thing often referred to as the backfire effect, whereby people who have taken sides on an issue, when presented with contradictory evidence, react by further entrenching their position. So, as it gets hotter, expect the denial to become louder and shriller.

 

[John Brown]

I agree scientists are not generally stupid, but they also often disagree. I wasn't aware that there was any consensus on what the underlying trend is, or what exactly determines it.

That's hilarious! You weren't aware of any consensus!

 

[whereistheceilidh]

Given the unusually high numbers of sunspots and the knowledge that there is a connection between the number of sun spots and the average temperature on earth it's far more complicated than most think!

That one has already been sorted Billy .... many times...the best was a Dutch study from 1994 ish that differentiated the change in solar flux from sun spots with overall warming...ie global rise minus changes in incoming radiation( sorry, too busy today to find ref). There is still excess warming not covered by changes in external radiation. The Daily Telegraph reported the study as all warming was due to sun spots so if you choose sources like DT, D Mail etc then you may have a different view of climate change.
Atmospheric CO2 levels .... and other adsorbant chemicals are increasing. They take in a range of solar wavelengths & give out heat.... climate change!
As far as I can see it is fairly straight forward, unless you are being paid by some fossil fuel company to make it seem different.
&...... as Jacob's maps show.... it is occurring globally.....now!