Zero deflection = zero load
Drum sanders have dust cowls and 4” hoses funnelling vast air flows over them, they still get hot.
The best of luck with your endeavours
You are confusing overhead and under table sanders and the way they function. For overhead you have the information and the way they function correct, though I think your airflow dynamics may not be exactly .
the under table, Velcro attached work differently there is no need for deflection as there is NO load ( or very little load) on the roller. The paper floats off the roller allowing an air cushion, the deflection of the PAPER is compressing the air cushion so while there is very slight air pressure down it also travels sideways.
is there any deflection of the circular path of the paper? Of course.
Is there any heat generated? Of course but the paper is air cooled.
Is it noticeable? No it isn’t
is it measurable? Probably, I’ve never noticed any difference touching the roller after using it, but a tiny increase wouldn’t be noticeable.
Does the paper load up with melted finish? Never that I have seen.
this is drastically different from overhead models where the paper is squeezed between the roller and work this compression the cause of the vast majority of heat generation. The cutting action of the paper produces very little heat.