Customs declarations and brexit

[Jacob]

Just opened this thread to see what it was about and this has got to be the most miserably pessimistic defeatist attitude I have come across for years. Don’t bother replying I shan’t be back.

It was the miserably pessimistic defeatist attitude of the brexitters which set it off; they simply gave up on the creative possibilities offered by the EU and the potential of our power and influence from within. Exchanged for a feeble fantasy about independence and reviving the British Empire.
Nobody knew for sure, it was possible we remoaners would be proved wrong but it's looking very unlikely!
Have we sorted out those fiendish Chinese yet? - 5 years of negotiations and the oven ready deal should have done it? Does anybody know how to get to the Pacific Rim from Dover? Further than Calais I imagine.

 

[RobinBHM]

New negotiations are focusing on two major areas, the Trans Pacific Partnership, and CANZUK. The partial aim is to make the countries involved less dependent on China, but there is also the obvious benefit of freer trade with those countries

I've studied the detail on both of these.

1 CANZUK
The major problem with it is that it doesn't exist.
Would it have any benefits over EU membership? Unlikely, EU has a trade deal with Canada and is negotiating currently with Aust and NZ.

2. CPTPP
EU has or is negotiating free trade deals with nine of the 11 countries in the CPTPP already

Will it compensate for the trade we do with the EU? No
EU membership has meant the UK has been a gateway to Europe, encouraging a great deal of FDI....will it replace that? No

There are concerns that China might join and the UK could end up with a trade deal,with China by the backdoor

New Zealand launching a public consultation on new accessions to the CPTPP, which said that new members will need to comply with the existing agreement. That would mean the UK would be a rule taker not maker.

And there is a real problem with divergence of standards from those we currently have with our biggest trade partner, the EU and having to lower standards and open up the country to cheap agri imports undercutting UK farmers.

 

[Jacob]

This is excellent news, and with the increased demand for people to do manual harvesting of crops (something that sadly has been very effectively resistant to machines with the exception of a few specialised crops like wheat and corn in large monocrops), there's now an opportunity to not only have a healthier diet, but to also get more physical exercise and build up your general health even more. It's a truly exciting opportunity and I think it will work out very well for everyone in the long run, it should be an excellent future for all!

It could mean taking back the land though. Is that what Johnson has in mind with his favourite promise about "levelling up" - he's been reading about the levellers?

 

[Chris152]

Just opened this thread to see what it was about and this has got to be the most miserably pessimistic defeatist attitude I have come across for years. Don’t bother replying I shan’t be back.

That's up to you. I'm a professional historian, watched this stuff for many years. It's not a defeatist attitude, it's watching carefully to establish how things are; until we do, we've no idea how to proceed to make things better. Unfortunately, many seem to choose ignorance and fantasy. You seem to have chosen not to engage reality.

 

[AlanY]

This thread still going? I am beginning to feel nostalgic about the screaming wally at Westminster (the 'Stop Brexit' one, not the 650 in Parliament). You folks carry on. I am sure you are all making absolute sense but, like Cabinetman, I won't bother coming back to find out.

 

[powertools]

Sadly the UK hasn't negotiated a single trade deal.
Every single deal has been an EU rollover deal.

The Japan deal was lauded at the time as a wonderful deal....but scrutinising the detail, it turns out it was 95% cut and paste EU deal and the improvements over the EU deal are largely in Japan's favour.

One of the key selling points of the Brexit campaign was the claim of "new trade opportunities" ....well those haven't arisen.

An important point is this: something like 70% of our trade is: EU, USA, China.....given that the UK now only has a GDP of $3 trillion.....so it has zero leverage to get preferential terms....as EU negotiations proved.

The fact that the UK has in 3 months rolled over most of the trade deals with other countries should be something we should all be pleased about as the deals are now far better than what was before in that we still have the same trading situation with most of the countries involved without the commitment to the EU project. It is also something that the scare mongers said could never happen
I notice that France now seems to think that we should help to bale out Eurostar what is that all about it is nothing to do with us and even if it was a bale out goes against EU rules. They just don't get it yet it is not the UK that is causing problems with trade.

 

[RobinBHM]

That's up to you. I'm a professional historian, watched this stuff for years. It's not a defeatist attitude, it's watching carefully to establish how things are; until we do, we've no idea how to proceed to make things better. But you seem to have chosen not to engage reality.

For me the frustration with Brexit is not that it's happened, it is the almost total lack of debate based on facts and evidence.

The common claim that remainers are negative, miserable, defeatist etc etc....is simply resorting to emotive adjectives which are a deflection from discussions based on facts and evidence.

Brexit was and still is sold by those in charge as having the purpose of benefitting the country. But it's real purpose is for vested self interest of a wealthy few. Behind the scenes we are seeing inceasing levels of US libertarian groups lobbying government, mostly indirectly through Brexit "think tanks" (Brexit propaganda sites). My concern is the level of damage that will be inflicted in the next few years.

 

[Blackswanwood]

I wonder how much shorter this thread would have been if everyone had just made their point once

 

[RobinBHM]

The fact that the UK has in 3 months rolled over most of the trade deals with other countries should be something we should all be pleased about as the deals are now far better than what was before in that we still have the same trading situation with most of the countries involved without the commitment to the EU project

The pro brexit side has spent a lot of time telling us the great benefit of Brexit is new opportunities with preferential trade deals.....but as yet there have been no new opportunities.

I'm not sure what you mean by "the deals are far better that what was before" ....I don't understand this because:

apart from some minor changes, UKGT rates are pretty similar to EUs CET rates.
In terms of non tariff barriers, all those countries that we've made deals with....already trade with the EU and comply with their rules....for them the EU is a much larger market, how will they benefit selling to the UK with different rules and regulations? I don't get the logic

Given the EU is our largest trade partner by a country mile, do you actually see a big benefit in UK diverging regulations for a marketplace much further afield and more spread out?

Let's remember UK does about 70% of its trade with the 3 economic superpowers: EU, USA, China none of which will give UKmapreferential trade deal....so you argument only exists for the 30% anyway.

 

[RobinBHM]

This thread still going? I am beginning to feel nostalgic about the screaming wally at Westminster (the 'Stop Brexit' one, not the 650 in Parliament). You folks carry on. I am sure you are all making absolute sense but, like Cabinetman, I won't bother coming back to find out.

I never quite understand these posts....if it's of no interest to you, why bother posting to say "it's of no interest to me"

 

[highwood122]

if we had truly been in the eu. without all sorts of financial benefits kept from us, most people would probably have wanted to stay in. if you have travelled the continent extensively you should know what i mean

 

[Cheshirechappie]

I've studied the detail on both of these.

1 CANZUK
The major problem with it is that it doesn't exist.
Would it have any benefits over EU membership? Unlikely, EU has a trade deal with Canada and is negotiating currently with Aust and NZ.

2. CPTPP
EU has or is negotiating free trade deals with nine of the 11 countries in the CPTPP already

Will it compensate for the trade we do with the EU? No
EU membership has meant the UK has been a gateway to Europe, encouraging a great deal of FDI....will it replace that? No

There are concerns that China might join and the UK could end up with a trade deal,with China by the backdoor

New Zealand launching a public consultation on new accessions to the CPTPP, which said that new members will need to comply with the existing agreement. That would mean the UK would be a rule taker not maker.

And there is a real problem with divergence of standards from those we currently have with our biggest trade partner, the EU and having to lower standards and open up the country to cheap agri imports undercutting UK farmers.

Yes, CANZUK is an idea - and it's a good one. CPTPP is driven principally by Japan, who have a very strong interest in keeping China out of it. Both of those, if they come to pass, will be treaties from which the UK could unilaterally withdraw should membership drawbacks come to outweigh advantages.

Robin, by all means believe whatever you want to believe. But - let's see where the world is in 5 years, 10 years - or even a timescale comparable to the UK's EEC/EC/EU membership. Then we can judge whether Brexit was good or bad. Quite possible the EU won't exist in it's current form by then.

 

[Cheshirechappie]

That's up to you. I'm a professional historian, watched this stuff for many years. It's not a defeatist attitude, it's watching carefully to establish how things are; until we do, we've no idea how to proceed to make things better. Unfortunately, many seem to choose ignorance and fantasy. You seem to have chosen not to engage reality.

I mean no offence, but I have to confess that I prefer the Robert Tombs / Niall Ferguson school of analysis. Sure, the West has problems, but when hasn't it? On balance I prefer the results of Reformation, Enlightenment, scientific and industrial revolutions, applied capitalism, democratic government and freedom of thought we enjoy in what might loosely be termed 'the West' to some of the historical alternatives, and especially to the results of applied ideologies such as Marxism which have inflicted so much misery on so many during the 20th and early 21st centuries.

Are you better off or worse off than your grandparents were? I know I'm better off than mine. Life expectancy, healthcare, variety of food and goods available to buy, ease of travel - you name it. The UK isn't declining, it's getting better. There are ups and downs of course, and there are still problems to address, but are we ordinary folk better off than ordinary folk a century ago? Would be a very blinkered historian that said no, I think.

 

[Jacob]

I mean no offence, but I have to confess that I prefer the Robert Tombs / Niall Ferguson school of analysis. Sure, the West has problems, but when hasn't it? On balance I prefer the results of Reformation, Enlightenment, scientific and industrial revolutions, applied capitalism, democratic government and freedom of thought we enjoy in what might loosely be termed 'the West' to some of the historical alternatives, and especially to the results of applied ideologies such as Marxism which have inflicted so much misery on so many during the 20th and early 21st centuries.

Have recently read a fascinating history book - more or less describes the inception of modern Capitalism. It's actually a gripping read - you can't put it down:
Verso
Following that up with David Olusoga's book about what drove American and British capitalism/productivity and wealth generation from Columbus onwards.
Haven't watched the TV series yet thats next David Olusoga's look at a forgotten history shows there's always been black in the Union Jack
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0...ga explores the,surprising as it is revealing.

 

[MarkDennehy]

Quite possible the EU won't exist in it's current form by then.

This is (at least in the mathematical sense) a possibility (though, as my father would point out, not a probability). However, it's more possible that the UK itself will no longer exist in its current form by then. I mean, looking at the journalist feeds on twitter (I don't know why, but journalism seems to have embraced twitter the way woodworkers embraced instagram) from Belfast tonight, things are starting to move towards an eleventh night of rioting. Scotland's indepenedence movement is pretty clearly visible, and even Wales has made noises this year, which I think might be a first in my lifetime.

To be honest, I'm starting to think that we may still have the most interesting days ahead of us, in the proverbial sense

 

[MarkDennehy]

Are you better off or worse off than your grandparents were?

I mean, my grandparents lived into their eighties, which is over the average life expectancy today, and they owned their own houses.
Granted, they didn't have computer games and twitter, but I suppose we all have hardships to bear.

If all goes well, I might be able to buy a house this year. Maybe. Which means at the age of 45, I would finally have bought a house. It will be smaller than the house I grew up in, cost an amount I'm more familiar with seeing in the sweepstakes winnings pages, and will have been bought two decades after when my grandparents bought theirs (the ones on my mother's side at least, my father's side were in british army housing in Tralee from the Royal Munster Fusileers days). This is despite earning more than my father ever did, and more than my grandfather could have counted to easily. Laugh at millenials all you want (especially since I predate them) but they're facing lives a lot harder than you'd think based on the idea of each generation always having it easier than the last, because that stopped working as a model for how things are somewhere between GenX and Millenials. (Also, I say "facing" like they were kids, but Millennials are now in their mid-30s to mid-40s and have kids of their own, because linear time is a cruel mistress).

My grandparents also didn't have to cope with a pandemic (they were born years after the last one) or climate change. And they missed out on the Irish civil war by a few years too. So they lived blessed lives in many ways.

Now, if you want to go back a century, that wouldn't be grandparents, that'd be my great-grandparents (want to feel old? Stay alive for a decade ) and to be fair, mine got shot in the somme where they'd been sent after surviving V beach and before they went home as a British Army colour-sergeant to train the IRA, so they probably had a more interesting time of it than their children did

 

[D_W]

I doubt most people who compare things like parents' house size, etc, would make a fair comparison.

Here in the states, houses were 2x income on average about 75 years ago. There was a reason for that - there was almost nothing in them. Many were frame, poorly insulated, relatively unsafe, or if they were older, brick or stone and the same. I can guarantee that until my parents were fairly comfortable, they never made mention of a vacation that was more than a couple of hours away - flying would be out of the question.

We're entitled now. I live in a house half the size of my parents' house, but both of them worked (my wife does not). My father lived through vietnam. My grandfather lived through world war II and the korean war.

Their pondering how to spend their leisure money was limited to one meal out per week, and quite often here, that was a hot dog shop. My father lived in a large house, but it was heated with one register, and the bedrooms didn't have heat (and this isn't England where snow is transient) - they had one bathroom for 11 people (they did have a big house, and it was owned by them). They were dirt poor, but my father didn't resent it. The first time he ever "ordered off of a menu" he was 16, and his father was college educated, by the way.

There are many ways to look at this, but I'm not that receptive to complaints about things being harder now until I see a whole bunch of people working as hard as my relatives did (we don't) at things that they didn't sometimes like very much, and then being as stingy with their money in terms of pleasing themselves wastefully once they were not at work.

 

[MarkDennehy]

I mean, if we stay on this road we'll be looking for two others from yorkshire, but I think we've had different lives D_W. Neither my mother nor my maternal grandmother worked after marriage - in fact, it was quasi-illegal to do so except in certain jobs like nursing and teaching over here, my mother was dismissed from the civil service on getting married because it was thought married women working were just taking up jobs men could be doing (and that's a view into a darker world in a nutshell right there).

But both myself and my wife works and both of us earn more than our parents did, and yet we'll be paying out more money than our parents ever saw to live in a house that's smaller than the ones we grew up in. We don't live extravagant lives, and by that I mean we don't drink, don't smoke, have had very few holidays abroad (one two-week vacation in the canaries twelve years ago, and we've had weekends in europe five or six times wandering round museums in amsterdam and brussels and listening to mozart in vienna, which means my great-grandfather saw more of the world than we have, even if he was shooting at it at the time). Ordering takeaway is a treat to us. Books, tools, education, those we spend money on because that's the family tradition, but I'm not sure you'd call them treats as such and I know my grandparents and greatgrandparents had comparable collections of all of those to ours.

Honestly, when you do the comparison, it's not as easy as you'd imagine it should be to say who's having the better life. We certainly have things they didn't, but they absolutely had things we won't ever have either, like an easier pace of life (my grandparents now, not my great-grandfather, because army life during a world war is a bit rapid).

In fact, up till '98 or so, you couldn't even say we had more money than our grandparents (Ireland's economy didn't really take off till around then - we all expected when I was born that not all of us would live in Ireland, we figured at least one of us was for the boat, maybe two of the three of us).

 

[Jake]

I never quite understand these posts....if it's of no interest to you, why bother posting to say "it's of no interest to me"

It's the real cancel culture at work. Always it comes back to projection.

 

[MarkDennehy]

Ha! Right after talking about the relative hardships of the lives of millenials, this gets put up on another (IT) forum I read:

I mean, it's written for giggles, but it's a reasonable summary.
Millenials: they've got cause to be annoyed