credit card. anyone here with trade knowledge?

[devonwoody]

I purchased some kitchen equipment last week from Amazon and they offered an extra £15 discount if I applied for an Amazon/mastercard/Bank of America.

OK I applied and of course I was accepted, interest free for 12 months and the £15 discount.

Pin number letter arrived (the peel off label type) and I was astounded that the pin number offered was so similar to my existing pin number with Visa.

It must be too much of a coincidence for the pin to be so similar (I cannot disclose more than that) and this also happened 3 years ago with the Halifax when a pin number was posted to me.

So someone who creates these pins to be sent out must have knowledge.

Anyone here know how this comes about.

 

[StevieB]

Reset it then - I have never had a card where I haven't had the ability to reset the PIN. Tis good practice to do so anyway at least initially!

Steve

 

[devonwoody]

Steve, that has naturally be taken care of.
My concern was that a pin number was sent to me which is mentioned above.

 

[bodgermatic]

They're random. There's no conspiracy. Move along now, nothing to see here.

You have a 1 in 9999 chance of getting the same pin number, not bad odds. You're probably just as likely to go on holiday and meet your neighbours. If that happened, would you be asking yourself if they'd worked out where you were going and when, and then booked the same holiday? You'd probably put it down to coincidence.

 

[devonwoody]

Well I could have won the lottery on that basis. The number supplied was unbelievable.

Talking about holiday meetings, I met my sister and BIL in Megavissey in a restaurant one evening, and met our Postmistress from Basing in a Florida restaurant in the eighties.

 

[bodgermatic]

When you say similar number, I assume you mean one digit different yes? So the chances become immediately much greater. Say we allow that any of the four digits could be different, and the others are the same in the same place. You have the chance of it being the same (1/9999), the chance of the first digit being different (8/9999) the chance of the second (8/9999) etc. So 1+8+8+8+8 / 9999 = 1 /303. Looking more likely to you now?

e.g.: assume my number is 1111

we can allow 2111, 3111, 4111 etc...
or 1211, 1311 etc...
or 1121, 1131 etc..

The odds of matching all numbers on the lottery are 1 in 13,983,816.

 

[bugbear]

When you say similar number, I assume you mean one digit different yes? So the chances become immediately much greater. Say we allow that any of the four digits could be different, and the others are the same in the same place. You have the chance of it being the same (1/9999), the chance of the first digit being different (8/9999) the chance of the second (8/9999) etc. So 1+8+8+8+8 / 9999 = 1 /303. Looking more likely to you now?

e.g.: assume my number is 1111

we can allow 2111, 3111, 4111 etc...
or 1211, 1311 etc...
or 1121, 1131 etc..

The odds of the lottery are 1 in 13,983,816.

Good maths!

This is why people think they NEARLY won the lottery and keep playing.

There are an extraordinary (and counterintuitive...) number of numbers that are "close".

BugBear

 

[devonwoody]

Its happened twice, the Halifax did it as well. If it happened to you when you peeled the label off the pin letter you would say "my oh my"

~So the odds smell funny to me.

 

[bodgermatic]

There's another common fallacy about probability - the odds of it happening twice are exactly the same as the odds of it happening once. As bugbear says, 'nearly' winning the lottery makes you no more and no less likely to win it next time. If you flip a coin 100 times, and it comes up heads 100 times, what are the chances that it will come up heads again? 50/50, same as before.

 

[devonwoody]

Ah that is only the equivalent of two numbers being available, but four numbers is a different proposition when it happens twice?

Mind you I do collect a lot of credit cards, (they keep offering me deals like 9 months interest free credit, you can therefore go on holiday for nine months and your pension pays for the holiday when you return. )

 

[bodgermatic]

Ah that is only the equivalent of two numbers being available, but four numbers is a different proposition when it happens twice?

I assure you, the principle really is the same, no matter how many numbers are involved. How do you imagine the rules change when you add more numbers? If you repeat a test in the same conditions, the chances of any particular result coming up (no matter how many results there are) remain exactly the same.

If you receive a number that is 'nearly' the same once, and we reckon the chances of that were 1 in 303. The chances of it happening to you again remain 1 in 303.

 

[devonwoody]

If a lottery winner wins the jackpot three times in one year, are you saying the odds of that happening were the same as winning the first time, I think there is an equation missing. I can understand that he can win three times because off odds have not changed, but the odds of it happening must have another input.

Apart from being a lucky bugger

 

[Anonymous]

Anyone here know how this comes about.

Well if anybody does know they're not going to tell you, especially not on an open forum! :wink:

Regarding probability didn't somebody post the 3 doors gameshow question on here recently? That was enough to tell me I know nothing and probability and never will. If I did then I might be able to predict when that piece of wood spinning on the lathe is about to hit me on the head!

Dave

 

[Setch]

Coincidece.

If they actually knew your PIN, they would make the number issued the same, not similar. If I had a quid for eveytime I came across a number which resembled my burglar alarm code I could fund a good long night in the pub.

 

[Drea]

I think you might be on to something DW.

I found your PIN on this site.

Don't worry though, I won't tell anyone

 

[Walter Hall]

If a lottery winner wins the jackpot three times in one year, are you saying the odds of that happening were the same as winning the first time, I think there is an equation missing. I can understand that he can win three times because off odds have not changed, but the odds of it happening must have another input.

Apart from being a lucky bugger

The next toss of the coin is in probability parlance an "independent event" which is not and cannot be influenced by the previous results, much the same can be said of the lottery.

However there are more complex laws of probability such as the "Law of Large Numbers" which mean that the probability of a hundredth coin being tossed and still coming up heads is not necessarily just a matter of the probability in respect of that single toss. One would expect that a hundred tossed coins would fall near to a normal distribution curve with about 50% heads and 50% tails. Whilst it is true that the probability of the next single coin being tossed coming up heads is 50/50 the probability of 100 coins being tossed and all coming up heads is a very different matter.

So whilst the probability of a lottery winner winning the lottery again remains at about 14 million to one, just the same as if he had not won, the probability of someone winning the lottery twice is a more complex issue. This may all sound a little contradictory but it is not a subject that is easy to understand or explain. That is why bookmakers make a lot of money.

If you are interested there is a fairly readable explanation of some of the issues affecting probability here

 

[StevieB]

Ack, I deliberately didn't go into probability theory and the availability of 4 digit numbers as I knew it would kick off! We have had a long discussion on the lottery before some time ago and the naievity of people in terms of understanding probability.

DW, you are right. They are monitoring your every move. Cameras in your smoke alarms, microphones in your plug sockets and the postman lets them read all your mail, which is why they know all your pin numbers. Now carry on as if you know nothing and it will all be fine.

Steve

 

[matt]

I purchased some kitchen equipment last week.

Some nice stuff you got there.

 

[Jake]

The probability is interesting.

Ignoring that, why on earth would *they*, knowing the pin to card 1, want to intimate that to you by making it the PIN to card 2 which they are issuing you. They are issuing you card 2, and on this hypothesis they can give it any old PIN and they will know the number for card 2. All 'they' gain is to let you know that they know your PIN for card 1, thus making you suspicious. Unless *their* aim is to make you suspicious.

Its important to remember that you aren't paranoid, *they* are out to make you paranoid.

 

[rileytoolworks]

Hey, just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you.