Cop 29

[Chris152]

Interesting thoughts on BBC this morning about how it may proceed, given the new US administration. Two possibilities were outlined:

1. Certain other countries get behind the new US line and continue promotion of fossil fuels;
2. Another country (China) gets fully behind new technologies (they're making massive investments) and takes the lead.

To my mind, if the second route is taken, it could be a significant step toward China taking up the mantle (for better or worse - and not just on climate change) and the US disappearing into the dark ages.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

China is one of those nations that like to "play" other nations along...

I could easily see them backing a US dilution of the Paris Agreement. Other nations scale back on renewables investment as a consequence.
Behind the scenes, China is still beavering at full tilt trying to steal an even greater lead in renewables technology to capture the future market for decades to come.

 

[Terry - Somerset]

China currently generate 35% of energy from green sources and have a plan to increase this substantially. They have limited oil so coal has been the energy source of choice in the past.

China dominate in the production of photovoltaics and are rapidly becoming the world leader in EV and battery production.

My guess is China will see COP29 as an opportunity to increase its global reach - supporting climate mitigation initiatives with real cash rather than empty promises will unquestionably win friends.

US proposed import duties (a Trump initiative) are a crude way to protect domestic markets, not a route to global influence. Assuming scientists are right about climate change, the Trump strategy supporting oil over the green agenda could leave the US increasingly marginalised.

Definitely No2 to China in a decade. It may impact US multinationals as export markets turn against the remaining very large "polluter".

 

[AJB Temple]

Good thread. I've read so much conflicting material on climate change that I'm not sure where I stand on it. China will do whatever it can to achieve a level of dominance that protects itself. As a people's republic it strikes me as neither for the people nor a republic and the west would be wise to protect itself from chinese economic control.

So far the various climate change meetings seem to talk a good game but materially under deliver. It's man vs nature and in the end nature always wins the long game.

 

[Blackswanwood]

I’m not sure Trump will actually kill the green agenda this time around. The US has invested quite heavily and he’ll hand an advantage to China if he does. My guess is he’ll try and fudge having a foot in both camps - which obviously won’t work for the environment.

 

[Spectric]

and the west would be wise to protect itself from chinese economic control.

Look at products around you, it is a bit late for that as everything seems to be made in China or asia.

 

[niemeyjt]

With Musk as an adviser I am sure there will be some green initiatives as well.

 

[Hypnotic Chimera]

Good thread. I've read so much conflicting material on climate change that I'm not sure where I stand on it. China will do whatever it can to achieve a level of dominance that protects itself. As a people's republic it strikes me as neither for the people nor a republic and the west would be wise to protect itself from chinese economic control.

So far the various climate change meetings seem to talk a good game but materially under deliver. It's man vs nature and in the end nature always wins the long game.

The vastly dominating consensus amongst academic climate scientists (who have no vested interests other than performing science) is that current rapid (rapid in comparative terms) climate change is mainly man made.
The differing views are almost all produced by those with vested interests and organisations that refuse to tell the public who funds them (in other words - hidden and anonymous vested interests).

The kicker for me is the historical data shows CO2 rise as a result of "natural" warming events and cycles and the CO2 concentration rise trails the temperature rise in global cycles. The current trend is that the temperature rise when drawn on similar graphs and scales is this time preceded by atmospheric CO2 concentration level increases, rather than following the historic norms.

 

[Richard_C]

Not wanting to deflect the topic but injecting some woodwork. During COP26 in Glasgow I turned one of my windowsill sculptural pieces, calling it tipping point. I sense that the wave is even closer to crashing down on us.

 

[Agent_zed]

With Musk as an adviser I am sure there will be some green initiatives as well.

You mean the guy with 12? kids, who runs a rocket company and also sells luxury EV cars, now including the Cybertruck which is massively un-green, who also actively campaigned to prevent hi-speed rail in California with a promise of some nonsense so he could sell more cars?

 

[Phil Pascoe]

COP 29? The Taliban are there so all will be well.

 

[Amplidyne]

Ah yes, COP29.
The place where our world leaders will fly their huge entourages half way round the world to have a nice jolly with their mates under the pretence of saving that world.
Where British leaders will make unrealistic promises on our behalf to save the world, whilst all others are looking after their own interests.

 

[RobinBHM]

With Musk as an adviser I am sure there will be some green initiatives as well.

Actually when Trump cuts Investment in in green initiatives such as grants, it will knock out the small players so will advantage Musk.

I’m sure cutting corporation tax and cutting regulations will be good for Mush

 

[RobinBHM]

Ah yes, COP29.
The place where our world leaders will fly their huge entourages half way round the world to have a nice jolly with their mates under the pretence of saving that world.
Where British leaders will make unrealistic promises on our behalf to save the world, whilst all others are looking after their own interests.

I am sure the fossil fuel funded right wing “think tanks” and the fossil fuel funded Reform party and Tories agree with you

 

[Amplidyne]

I am sure the fossil fuel funded right wing “think tanks” and the fossil fuel funded Reform party and Tories agree with you

And the left isn't funded by money made on the back of fossil fuels?

Rose coloured spectacles.

They're all as bad as each other, and they all tell us what they want us to believe.

 

[Spectric]

COP anything is just a waste of time otherwise by now something would have changed, progress somewhere but instead they all turn up to drink chardonay having added more to the greenhouse gases on their journey to get there. A bigger question is what COP will it be when they realise they should have done more sooner and it is now to late, COP 34 or maybe COP 40 .

 

[RobinBHM]

And the left isn't funded by money made on the back of fossil fuels?

No

They're all as bad as each other,

No they aren’t.

Rose coloured spectacles.

Not at all, I know Labour have donors, I know they may be influenced by donors, but Tufton street, IEA, Koch foundation and many others are all Right wing. Most of the money and power influence is on the right.

 

[deema]

I wonder if I’m the only one that remembers the film ‘The life of Brian’ and wonders how we now have ended up reenacting it in reality?
Brian: played by Greta Thumberg
Judean Peoples Front: / Peoples front of Judea: played by……well, no shortage of actors politicians or certain UKW contributor's

 

[Amplidyne]

Do you know, I just wrote a reply to Robin BHM.
I can't be bothered with the pantomime, "Oh no they're not"
Have a nice day.

 

[Limey Lurker]

Interesting thoughts on BBC this morning about how it may proceed, given the new US administration. Two possibilities were outlined:

1. Certain other countries get behind the new US line and continue promotion of fossil fuels;
2. Another country (China) gets fully behind new technologies (they're making massive investments) and takes the lead.

To my mind, if the second route is taken, it could be a significant step toward China taking up the mantle (for better or worse - and not just on climate change) and the US disappearing into the dark ages.

I'm not convinced that the US has yet risen from the Dark Ages.