.

[Phil Pascoe]

My daughter and her partner, both 27, bought their first house a couple of years ago. A small end of terrace, a typical first time buyer's property. They've just had to negotiate a new mortgage, and the repayments have gone up ................................. by £236 a month. They can afford it, but it'll leave them hamstrung to do much else, and it doesn't look like this'll be the last increase. Large scale repossessions seem to be looming.

 

[Adam W.]

Not only that, but here in DK, our gas bill has gone up to a whopping £3000 per quarter.

 

[Stan]

Last year's pension increase covered 3 out of 12 months increase in electricity. ( That is last year's increase only). It didn't cover the increases in petrol, council tax, food....

This year? F*** knows!

Won't be long before I have to pay out more than I get just to breathe, let alone eat or go anywhere.

For what did I spend my life serving my community in the forces and emergency services? I could have worked in the private sector, or even as a politician feathering my own nest ( in between illegal wine parties at No.10 or going to Barnard Castle for my eye tests).

 

[BucksDad]

It really does feel like we are on the cusp of societal breakdown. We had the industrial revolution to create economic growth, we then had the invention of the microchip which created another wave of growth. I am not sure where the next wave of economic growth for our country is going to come from because we can't manufacture anything and technological progress is now painstakingly slow in comparison to the past 50 years. I think we are the next Italy.

No government seems to have provided any credible plan to resolve the cost of housing or build more homes quickly.
With regards to mortgages, if the rates keep going up, I think the government will intervene and force the banks to make mortgages interest only for a few years

 

[Jacob]

...

No government seems to have provided any credible plan to resolve the cost of housing or build more homes quickly.
...

It takes positive action. Bring back council house building. Free market ideology doesn't do it. See "Trussonomics".
"Growth" is no longer an option - talk nowadays is of "degrowth".
Also takes taxation. Taxation drives the economy.
There'll have to be a massive readjustment to the current problems. Inflation helps as it allows adjustments e.g. could permit adjustment in relative house prices without leaving people in negative equity.

 

[Thingybob]

It really does feel like we are on the cusp of societal breakdown. We had the industrial revolution to create economic growth, we then had the invention of the microchip which created another wave of growth. I am not sure where the next wave of economic growth for our country is going to come from because we can't manufacture anything and technological progress is now painstakingly slow in comparison to the past 50 years. I think we are the next Italy.

No government seems to have provided any credible plan to resolve the cost of housing or build more homes quickly.
With regards to mortgages, if the rates keep going up, I think the government will intervene and force the banks to make mortgages interest only for a few years

If years ago when i left school if renewable energy was seen as a major progression i would have jumped at the chance to of been involved but as you say nowadays we dont have the manufacturing infrastructure to be able to compete globaly sad state

 

[Jacob]

If years ago when i left school if renewable energy was seen as a major progression i would have jumped at the chance to of been involved but as you say nowadays we dont have the manufacturing infrastructure to be able to compete globaly sad state

But if we look at constructive "degrowth" we don't need manufacturing infrastructure, we need less of it. And we need to stop trying to compete globally.
The old models are all broken.
Degrowth is on the way like an avalanche, due to climate change. We can't stop or avoid it but need to manage it as best we can.

 

[thetyreman]

my prediction is another massive recession which will be an amazing opportunity like 2008 to buy things cheap again, the sooner it happens the better, and I'd love that tories get the blame this time, but they do everything in their path to prevent it and protect bankers instead, I can imagine civil unrest the way things are going.

 

[Thingybob]

But if we look at constructive "degrowth" we don't need manufacturing infrastructure, we need less of it. And we need to stop trying to compete globally.
The old models are all broken.
Degrowth is on the way like an avalanche, due to climate change. We can't stop or avoid it but need to manage it as best we can.

But surely we need the means to produce power nationaly , Its hard to say what level of degrowth you are advocating where are you basing your time line Tudor, Edwardian or 50s I agree we are relying on Technology too much but the ability to generate power sustainably and share it with others is a must

 

[Jacob]

But surely we need the means to produce power nationaly , Its hard to say what level of degrowth you are advocating

Not advocating it at all except that it's being forced upon us and can't be ignored.

 

[johna.clements]

But if we look at constructive "degrowth" we don't need manufacturing infrastructure, we need less of it. And we need to stop trying to compete globally.
The old models are all broken.
Degrowth is on the way like an avalanche, due to climate change. We can't stop or avoid it but need to manage it as best we can.

I am not sure what you mean by degrowth.

Growth is a natural thing. Out put goes up because we find better ways of doing things. The quality and the speed of most peoples work here will have seen growth.

Are you proposing that people should not pass on their bright ideas, which is part of this forums purpose.


I think we should be more concerned with pointless consumption.

This forum is mainly about wood. We should be promoting the use of wood in sustainable ways, products that last rather than go to land fill every ten years etc.

 

[D_W]

For what did I spend my life serving my community in the forces and emergency services? I could have worked in the private sector, or even as a politician feathering my own nest ( in between illegal wine parties at No.10 or going to Barnard Castle for my eye tests).

My parents were both teachers. They often say this. They worked about 1600 hours a year, but really a little less than that - I'm giving them credit for working 9 hours a day, but it was more like 7-8.

I found it kind of insulting "I could make a lot more money in the private sector". Maybe. You would have to work another 1000 hours a year in most better-paying jobs - as in better than the gov jobs, have less PTO, have to work on the weekends sometimes (at salary, no extra pay) and evenings.

And probably not have a pension at this point, and more self-contribution with healthcare. Private sector does give more options to seek higher pay, but there aren't many that are the supposed 9-5 types.

The rank and file private sector types are in the same boat as you, but maybe with less money.

There are exceptions, like semi-volunteer community medical work or public defenders. I think the latter, along with district attorneys, are usually folks working toward setting up a private law practice and cashing in then, or building a record to run for office in politics.

 

[Spectric]

It is all to do with cycles, countries rise to the top and then slide back down as another one comes up because there is not enough market for too many at the top. The problems arise when you don't accept this and try to remain at the top because your finances are not good enough and you start trying to punch above your weight. On a bigger scale it is the west in a slide downwards with the east rising up and resisting this shift in economics is what causes the people financial pain, in very basic terms we have priced ourselves out of being viable. Pointless consumption is what drives the western economy, if you make your money from selling then your objective is to sell more, make things with a shorter lifespan, con people with terms like fashion and designer and promote a materialistic lifestyle. Why do you think we use so much chipboard, it is because it allows for fast manufacturing of short lifespan items like kitchens. Using wood in a traditional way would raise the cost and skill levels needed for something that does not fit into todays market where everything is short term and not for the long haul.

 

[flying haggis]

My daughter and her partner, both 27, bought their first house a couple of years ago. A small end of terrace, a typical first time buyer's property. They've just had to negotiate a new mortgage, and the repayments have gone up ................................. by £236 a month. They can afford it, but it'll leave them hamstrung to do much else, and it doesn't look like this'll be the last increase. Large scale repossessions seem to be looming.

wait till the mortgage rate gets to 15%+ as i suffered from in the 80s , all interst rates have been to low for too long so now when they start to rise people will complain. people with mortgages have been laughing for years but savers have been suffering so ok its tough but now the boot is on the other foot for me i will be happy if savings rates go up

 

[D_W]

The problems arise when you don't accept this and try to remain at the top because your finances are not good enough and you start trying to punch above your weight.

This is the huge risk people place themselves in, and then societies as a whole do, too.

Strangely, it involves borrowing on both accounts.

The result of too much borrowing is slightly different, but not too much different. The government does have the ability to harvest from the savers and economic value by diluting their assets through currency. I'm glad private debtors can't do that, too!

 

[Terry - Somerset]

We don't have a vision - improving standards of material wealth, greater happiness, more leisure time, greater fairness in the distribution of wealth, etc. It is wishful thinking to believe they can be complementary.

Retired, no mortgage, some cash (not a lot) in the bank I want a fair rate of interest on my savings having spent a working life responsibly providing for retirement rather than the pitiful less than 1% in recent years. Younger folk with mortgages understandably feel differently.

Degrowth means society reducing its consumption - getting poorer in conventional economic terms. I have no problem accepting that health, relationships, leisure time etc can be more important than unnecessary material excess.

For many it means making do with even poorer access to the "essentials" which money buys. Without redistribution of wealth, it is untenable. A "degrowth" policy will therefore deny me the benefits I have accumulated through working and saving for 40 years.

The views of a society will inevitably be some sort of consensus arising from a diversity of individual opinions and circumstances. Few will get all they want, some will get part, and some will disagree violently with the outcome.

 

[D_W]

A very good post, Terry - in the US and much of the west, a great deal of economic expansion and consumption has come not out of pure spontaneous growth, but realization that you can spur some expansion with borrowing.

As countries, we are all running around decrying any setbacks in standard of living that are generally society-wide, reduction in convenience and fiscal laziness. For some individuals, especially if they exercised convenience and fiscal laziness as an individual, things may be more dire.

But I can't imagine many folks gather the sameness between this and the neighbor who takes out a bunch of loans above and beyond their means and then throws a fit when they have to cut back, because they may have already been living at 1.5x the standard of that their income would afford. they had personal expansion by borrowing instead.

We absolutely lambaste the individual who falls into this category, but for some reason, think it has no consequences when all of society does it collectively.

It's not difficult. The only way borrowing can not affect standard of living is if it spurs so much growth that the growth itself pays back more than the borrowing cost. It never does - we just try to stay in front of the wave with real economic growth allowing more borrowing, but we are on the surfboard, the wave is getting bigger and closer.

 

[Tris]

wait till the mortgage rate gets to 15%+ as i suffered from in the 80s , all interst rates have been to low for too long so now when they start to rise people will complain. people with mortgages have been laughing for years but savers have been suffering so ok its tough but now the boot is on the other foot for me i will be happy if savings rates go up

Out of interest, do you recall what the loan to salary ratio you had was?
I wonder how those who have borrowed 4 or 5 times their joint incomes will fare if the rates go that far up again.

 

[artie]

Out of interest, do you recall what the loan to salary ratio you had was?
I wonder how those who have borrowed 4 or 5 times their joint incomes will fare if the rates go that far up again.

Back in '84, it was 2.5 times annual salary when I approached the Woolwich.

 

[Ozi]

I hold no strong political affiliation but what gets to me is the utter contempt our current crop of politicians hold for the electorate. Were they really going - in a time of significant economic difficulty - to borrow money to pass to the richest part of our society as a tax cut? The country is broke after covid, energy supply is being used as a weapon against us there is a lot of economic pain to be suffered. If we were all playing by the same rules and everybody took their share I think most of us would understand but when the country was paying the equivalent of half the NHS budget in interest on dept to adopt a policy so reckless that it raises the interest rate at which that dept must be paid and to do it only to benefit 1% of us is utterly indefensible.