# Coronavirus



## thetyreman

and masks,

thoughts?


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## That would work

I guess it's easier than strapping a dust extractor on your back? (homer)


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## thetyreman

surely using dust masks will INCREASE not DECREASE the spread of the disease, because people falsely believe they are protected?


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## MikeG.

It seems that the most likely way for the virus to enter your system is by you touching your nose or mouth, which we do on average 90 times a day (yeah......someone counts these things!!). So a mask, any mask, stops us touching our face, and thus stops the bug getting from our hands into our lungs via the mouth and nose. You can wear a clown mask and achieve the same result. The virus is too big to remain airborne, so falls onto surfaces, so unless someone infected sneezes or coughs directly in your face the primary way of catching the bug is via something you touch. The mask serves as an addition to washing your hands.


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## RogerS

MikeG.":1o7eqgfi said:
 

> .... the primary way of catching the bug is via something you touch. ....



Like those touch pads that delivery men ask you to sign !


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## Flynnwood

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching Dr. John Campbell


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## Steve Maskery

I'm seriously considering wearing my powered respirator when I go out shopping. OK, the filters are for dust, but the virus is waterborne and water will not penetrate the filters. I might have to disinfect them regularly, though.
I do genuinely think that that is the biggest threat that my generation has been faced with.

We're all doomed, Mr. Mainwaring, we're all doomed.


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## RogerS

"One can never be too cautious" said Steve as he set forth to the village shop :lol:


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## Cheshirechappie

Letter seen in the Daily Telegraph t'other day;

Sir, 
As a youngster, I consumed vast quantities of Corona. I am hoping this confers a degree of immunity.


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## Keith 66

My wife is an environmental health officer, she is well up to speed on infectious disease control & was only at another meeting about corona virus yesterday.
Despite what facebook & adverts say, Dust masks offer precisely zero protection against viruses. they are too small. Point about stopping you touching your mouth may have some relavance but then you rub your eye, then you take your mask off & whatever is on it is on your hands, then you pick your nose, scratch your itchy head, put the mask in your pocket for re use later. Because there is a shortage of them & you dont want to run out! So you put a germ ridden thing that ought to have been incinerated back on your mush.
Do you think Operating theatre staff wear the same mask all day? No. They change it after every single operation as do their coveralls and they wash their bloody hands!
We were in London thursday night for a concert, riding up there on the tube i didnt see anyone wearing a mask, but if that virus gets down there it will be everywhere in a matter of days. Its going to be plastered on every escalalator handrail, every pole & button in every train carriage.. you stand on the platform & the train arrives pushing a hot breeze in front of it, someone sneezes at the upwind end, Oh dear you is all going to get some! On your clothes, in your eyes, in your hair. 
You still think a crappy silverline dust mask will protect you?


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## RogerS

Catching up with the guys in the pub last night, quite a few companies up here have banned travel by public transport for their staff (large garage chain), minimising movement between garages, encouraging use of video-conferencing. My mate looks after a very large area for Motability and has three different video-conferencing systems on his laptop to service all the varieties out there in his patch.


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## Trainee neophyte

The only protection is quarantine. Other people are the problem. The question is: can you afford to not work? Can you afford to not travel? Can you afford to not go to the theatre/cinema/rock concert etc?

How much of a threat is this virus, compared to the real economic loss you would incur to not catch it? Everyone has their own decisions to make over this. Schools are closed for two weeks in my area - as there are people suffering from the virus. Do I assume that the worst outcome would be a few sniffles? Do I panic and pull up the drawbridge? Or do I make a decision somewhere in between, which means possible exposure to the virus, but also still get to go shopping?

My personal circumstances are quite unfair - I live in the middle of nowhere, with no near neighbours, and I have three months food available, plus another year's worth if I include what's on the hoof/trees. That's just normal everyday circumstances, so I am well set for a quarantine should it be necessary. If I lived in central London, and could only afford to keep doing so by going to work every day, things might have a very different perspective.


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## Racers

I get an extra day by turning my mask inside out, works with undercrackers as well. 

Pete


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## RogerS

My mate is a doctor and whose opinions and judgement I value. He's in agreement with me....get it early or later in the pandemic. So as I've got to return a 24Hr BP Monitor to the local hospital next week , I might just stick my head in the Coronavirus Pod and take a few deep breaths !


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## Keith 66

Racers":2f29h318 said:


> I get an extra day by turning my mask inside out, works with undercrackers as well.
> 
> Pete


 Turn them back to front as well you get four days!


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## Lons

RogerS":35fb72zx said:


> My mate is a doctor and whose opinions and judgement I value. He's in agreement with me....get it early or later in the pandemic. So as I've got to return a 24Hr BP Monitor to the local hospital next week , I might just stick my head in the Coronavirus Pod and take a few deep breaths !


I was fishing on Thursday with a mate who's a retired GP and he says it's way over hyped by the media.
Yes it's going to spread, chances are we'll catch it and the only reason albeit a valid one for delaying the inevitable is to take pressure off the NHS during the winter period.
Anyone who has underlying respiratory problems is at risk just as they are if they catch a flu virus, healthy people will be OK in general.

He says too many people have been watching The Walking Dead on Fox TV :wink:


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## doctor Bob

Yeah well, my mates sister's friend knows a woman who's friend was talking to a nurse who was discussing this with a retired hospital bog cleaner and he says ......................


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## Chris152

So, the Chinese are over-hyping things in spite of the damage it's doing to their economy? hmm...


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## Bodgers

Lons":2grua75p said:


> RogerS":2grua75p said:
> 
> 
> 
> My mate is a doctor and whose opinions and judgement I value. He's in agreement with me....get it early or later in the pandemic. So as I've got to return a 24Hr BP Monitor to the local hospital next week , I might just stick my head in the Coronavirus Pod and take a few deep breaths !
> 
> 
> 
> I was fishing on Thursday with a mate who's a retired GP and he says it's way over hyped by the media.
> Yes it's going to spread, chances are we'll catch it and the only reason albeit a valid one for delaying the inevitable is to take pressure off the NHS during the winter period.
> Anyone who has underlying respiratory problems is at risk just as they are if they catch a flu virus, healthy people will be OK in general.
> 
> He says too many people have been watching The Walking Dead on Fox TV :wink:
Click to expand...

I think you have bad information there. The evidence shows that it kills more people per case than seasonal flu - by some margin. The other concern is the high rate of hospitalisation - something that can quickly overwhelm hospitals, Wuhan is direct evidence of that.

There is slightly more positive news from South Korea. They have started aggressively testing people and have found a much higher case rate. The positive aspect to that is that the case/death ratio approaches 0.5% rather than the 3.5% worldwide.


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## lurker

RogerS":xbzxfspy said:


> , I might just stick my head in the Coronavirus Pod and take a few deep breaths !


Licking the door handle would be far more effective.


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## Trainee neophyte

Racers":32zdpz0q said:


> I get an extra day by turning my mask inside out, works with undercrackers as well.
> 
> Pete



This is the new me:


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## AES

Doesn't the wearer just get dizzy with that constant spinning round and round? (I'm assuming the spinning is an integral part of the design - centrifugal force will chuck out all the droplets that have entered through all the open holes in the thing).


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## Trainee neophyte

AES":1zjhz2jz said:


> Doesn't the wearer just get dizzy with that constant spinning round and round? (I'm assuming the spinning is an integral part of the design - centrifugal force will chuck out all the droplets that have entered through all the open holes in the thing).



You should try the undercracker version!  :shock: #-o


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## Cheshirechappie

Chris152":1nm1moft said:


> So, the Chinese are over-hyping things in spite of the damage it's doing to their economy? hmm...



That's more to do with secondary measures such as not restarting production after holiday breaks, shutting down entire cities and so on. Whether such measures are actually strictly necessary (or even effective, in the longer term) against the virus is a bit debatable, but it most definitely does impact their economy.

Did my weekly shop this morning, as I usually do on a Saturday morning. From the state of the shelves, there's been definite run on some things (though only my preferred brand of teabags were sold out), and it was a bit busier than usual. I just bought my usual weekly bits and bats, and apart from said teabags, no problem. The lady on the checkout said that yesterday was like Christmas Eve all day - it never stopped. People had trolleys piled high, apparently. Gawd knows why.

I suppose gummint and authorities are in a bit of a cleft stick - damned if they do and damned if they don't. They could say, "Don't panic, folks, it's no worse than flu" and look like a bunch of complacent so-and-so's if a couple of thousand deaths result. Or they could go full-on emergency mode and thus inadvertently cause widespread panic. I suppose until the epidemic (if it happens) has past, we (and they) won't know if they got it right or not.

It seems that if you're in generally good health, it's no worse than flu. Possibly not even as bad. So don't panic, even if you get it. However, for the frail, the elderly, or those with suppressed immune systems or serious breathing difficulties, it can be seriously bad news. Look out for elderly relatives and neighbours, or anyone in poor health. Keep in touch, and see they've got adequate food supplies and lend them a bog roll if you're prepared to spare one!


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## lurker

It’s getting serious!!
There was no truffle oil in Waitrose yesterday


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## treeturner123

Lurker

Is Truffle Oil Anti-Virol?

If so do you eat it or apply it (and where do you do so?)?

Seriously, my view on face masks are:-

1 - It stops you from touching your mouth and nose as suggested
2 - It catches droplets the YOU expel therefore giving safety to others
3 - You don't have to talk to anyone!

Phil


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## Cheshirechappie

lurker":1xkoe4fq said:


> It’s getting serious!!
> There was no truffle oil in Waitrose yesterday



Blimey, that's posh. Using 3-in-1 on your oilstones would be cheaper.


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## Chris152

Cheshirechappie":1mrm592d said:


> Chris152":1mrm592d said:
> 
> 
> 
> So, the Chinese are over-hyping things in spite of the damage it's doing to their economy? hmm...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's more to do with secondary measures such as not restarting production after holiday breaks, shutting down entire cities and so on. Whether such measures are actually strictly necessary (or even effective, in the longer term) against the virus is a bit debatable, but it most definitely does impact their economy.
Click to expand...

What are secondary measures CC? My understanding is those measures were taken to stop the virus spreading within China, and I've only heard positive comments about that from WHO - most recently, a spokesman said the rest of the world should be grateful to them for taking the measures as it gave us time to prepare, and he wondered if we'd taken proper advantage of that time (I think it was this morning on R4).

ps An Italian minister who studied China was on the radio earlier in the week, describing our handling of the virus as like children chasing a football around the field en mass, rather than strategically trying to get in front of it and stop it. We do seem to be following the curve somewhat rather than taking measure to stay ahead of it.




Wrong game, but there ya go.


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## RogerS

As one in the 'categories' - due to age but nowt else - I was curious to see what the process was after you realise you've become infected.

Self-isolate, lie-down and think of England seems to be the advice and it will all go away (eventually).

But nowhere could I find what the protocol was if you got into serious breathing difficulties.


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## RogerS

Chris152":b3iavusw said:


> .....and I've only heard positive comments about that from WHO - most recently, a spokesman said the rest of the world should be grateful to them for taking the measures ......



Really ? :shock: That's stretching the truth rather a lot. If the Chinese Government had listed to and acted on the recommendations of the doctor who first identified that something was afoot.....rather than sending the police round telling him to shut up or be arrested....then we would actually have had some warning. Not after the event.

Sadly he died from the virus.

China's initial response to Covid-19 was a monumental cock-up

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51364382


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## Chris152

True. But presumably the praise is for the actions taken later, which CC was referring to as secondary measures.


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## Cheshirechappie

Chris152":2y35mhzo said:


> What are secondary measures CC?



Primary measures - identify who's got the virus and isolate them (and treat them!) until they're clear of it. As Roger pointed out, if the Chinese authorities had taken the initial alert seriously instead of beating up the doctor that sounded it, they might have contained it enough to avoid;

Secondary measures - postponing international sporting events, closing down factories, isolating entire cities etc etc.

However, the Chinese regime being the blinkered authoritarians they are, they didn't, so we are where we are.


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## Bm101

I'm saving time and money by going to the supermarket and finding old frail types with over filled trollies.
No need for any action now. But I follow them home and make a note of addresses. If it all goes off *proper* I have 25+ stockpiles in my local area where there's a good chance no one is still using the pasta up.
Easy.
Why bother queuing?


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## Chris152

Ok, so primary measures = containment; secondary measures = delay?
Containment seems to be failing here, too - in spite of forewarning. Presumably we're now moving into a situation where we need secondary measures - those that the WHO says China has done well to implement. 
Unless Boris decides it's best for us to 'take it on the chin'.


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## treeturner123

Hi All

The Government is taking complete notice, as far as I can tell, of the recommendations of the Senior Health advisers.

If you really want to be frightened about what governments are doing, look no further than USA!!!

Phil


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## Flynnwood

Depends on what side of the "statistic" you are:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5FkxLJfmiA

Dr John Campbell
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFcvPAzubRg


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## Lons

Chris152":eu4d6zue said:


> So, the Chinese are over-hyping things in spite of the damage it's doing to their economy? hmm...


As neither myself or the retired doctor friend speaks Chinese you can be pretty sure I meant UK media rather than from China Chris.  

Personally I want to be kept informed of the situation but constantly repeated news coverage that offers nothing new does nothing but spread panic as has been seen in the supermarkets. There's precious little other news broadcast at the minute.

I'm healthy but in the at risk age range, my wife has asthma so more at risk and my MIL has asthma, other issues and is 92. Sensible people know what to do and don't need to see people on TV washing their hands whilst singing happy birthday!


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## dangles

One of my neighbours returned from 3 months in Thailand on Sunday night and said everybody walked straight through Heathrow (no health checks) and now on the news they say 2 bagage handlers tested positive.....?


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## RogerS

dangles":2y21vkhq said:


> One of my neighbours returned from 3 months in Thailand on Sunday night and said everybody walked straight through Heathrow (no health checks) and now on the news they say 2 bagage handlers tested positive.....?



But what health checks can the do ? Yeah, they can point a temperature sensor but that has been proved to be pretty pointless.


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## Trainee neophyte

Cheshirechappie":515hpljf said:


> Chris152":515hpljf said:
> 
> 
> 
> What are secondary measures CC?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Primary measures - identify who's got the virus and isolate them (and treat them!) until they're clear of it. As Roger pointed out, if the Chinese authorities had taken the initial alert seriously instead of beating up the doctor that sounded it, they might have contained it enough to avoid;
> 
> Secondary measures - postponing international sporting events, closing down factories, isolating entire cities etc etc.
> 
> However, the Chinese regime being the blinkered authoritarians they are, they didn't, so we are where we are.
Click to expand...


Lots of enthusiasm to put the boot in wrt China, but would any western government have done as well? Italy knew about the virus well in advance, and how is that going? H1N1 originated in USA, was going to kill everyone, and that was spectacular in its failure to be contained. However, because it was USA to blame, no one mentioned it.

As with all things, there is a political element to everything you read. Some of it may even be true.


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## Chris152

Spectacular moves from govt today - making it easier for nhs volunteers to volunteer without losing their jobs (sounds very cost-effective for the govt), and court cases may be heard via video links. Oh, and on Monday they'll be meeting sporting bodies to 'discuss the possibility' of events taking place behind closed doors. That could actually cost someone money, so best not rush into any decisions. 

What should the public be doing to protect themselves? Washing hands and singing songs. And keeping calm and above all, carrying on. I suppose this is what happens when a largely laissez-faire economy comes up against a significant health threat. Let it run and see what happens.


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## Trainee neophyte

Chris152":1itj7wth said:


> Spectacular moves from govt today - making it easier for nhs volunteers to volunteer without losing their jobs (sounds very cost-effective for the govt), and court cases may be heard via video links. Oh, and on Monday they'll be meeting sporting bodies to 'discuss the possibility' of events taking place behind closed doors. That could actually cost someone money, so best not rush into any decisions.
> 
> What should the public be doing to protect themselves? Washing hands and singing songs. And keeping calm and above all, carrying on. I suppose this is what happens when a largely laissez-faire economy comes up against a significant health threat. Let it run and see what happens.


The economic question is whether the defensive measures cause more damage to the economy than many people dying. Given the elderly are the target age range, governments could be better off letting it run its course, and getting rid of millions of pensioners. Being this callous could lose them votes so expect lots of sympathetic noises even if they do nothing tangible. We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics. Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result. Lots of things for Boris to consider...


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## selectortone

Where are the headlines about the hundreds of people who have died from influenza this winter? 6,600 worldwide in 2019 according to the CDC.

My sister sent me a twitter link to a video of a crowd in Costo in Farnborough panic buying toilet rolls. It was like the January sales. Or a zombie movie. Giant trolleys crammed with multi-packs pushed by people with glazed eyes. Good grief, I really despair about the human race sometimes.


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## Lons

Trainee neophyte":alahsyq6 said:


> We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics.


With 5 years left in office I doubt that will be top of the agenda at the minute although it is a given that it's always a factor.


> Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result.


At the last election a large percentage of labour stronghold voters changed sides, these are largely in areas where the population is least healthy, low paid workers or on benefits, smokers, poor diet etc so I guess those conservative votes would be lost given your argument. 
How long have you lived in isolation in Greece TM?

Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.


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## Cheshirechappie

Lons":2clhmcdt said:


> Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.



Hear, hear.

Noises from the authorities have suggested that there may come a time when they ask older folks to self-isolate, and that they're making arrangements with the supermarkets and grocery delivery companies to ensure that anyone so isolated gets food supplies. So it has been thought about.

Now is a good time to look out for elderly relatives and neighbours, and see that they're OK. (Given the nature of most of the older folks I know, they'll probably tell you to stop being so damn patronising and they've lived through worse - but they'll secretly appreciate the thought!)


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## RogerS

OK Chris152. We get it. You don't like Boris. You don't like the Tories. 

But what would you do if you were PM?

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


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## Chris152

It's a shame to reduce the discussion to that level, Roger - not my point at all. 
My point is that the economy seems to be significantly prioritised over public health, and this in an uncontrolled manner (it's probably going to hit the economy in the fullness of time anyway, as it has in China and is now in Italy). 
My problem's all tied up in the 'Keep calm and carry on' phrase. 
Keep calm - yes. Carry on as normal - why? I've seen no advice beyond the hand washing and face touching, and self-isolation if you think you've been infected.
How about, avoid public transport if you don't really need to use it? Avoid crowded places if you don't really need to be there? They seem very obvious, but we're not being told them. If you don't keep getting in such situations, you don't need to keep washing your hands. The only reason I can think of that we're not told these things is that it'd probably hit the economy. I've no idea really, just trying to make sense of the information we're getting/ not getting. 
For me, my questions started when, as I wrote in another thread, govt claimed closing schools would have no benefit in terms of containing the virus, which seems complete nonsense to me. And it's a real issue for me with kids of school age - kids who could easily stay home. 
So no real interest in the party politics of the situation as you suggest. The economics of the situation are important tho, I think.


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## RogerS

Chris152":u6iip457 said:


> It's a shame to reduce the discussion to that level, Roger - not my point at all.
> My point is that the economy seems to be significantly prioritised over public health, and this in an uncontrolled manner (it's probably going to hit the economy in the fullness of time anyway, as it has in China and is now in Italy).
> My problem's all tied up in the 'Keep calm and carry on' phrase.
> Keep calm - yes. Carry on as normal - why? I've seen no advice beyond the hand washing and face touching, and self-isolation if you think you've been infected.
> How about, avoid public transport if you don't really need to use it? Avoid crowded places if you don't really need to be there? They seem very obvious, but we're not being told them. If you don't keep getting in such situations, you don't need to keep washing your hands. The only reason I can think of that we're not told these things is that it'd probably hit the economy. I've no idea really, just trying to make sense of the information we're getting/ not getting.
> For me, my questions started when, as I wrote in another thread, govt claimed closing schools would have no benefit in terms of containing the virus, which seems complete nonsense to me. And it's a real issue for me with kids of school age - kids who could easily stay home.
> So no real interest in the party politics of the situation as you suggest. The economics of the situation are important tho, I think.



Well this seems a reasonable approach to me

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... istancing/


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## MusicMan

RogerS":3cf25dkp said:


> As one in the 'categories' - due to age but nowt else - I was curious to see what the process was after you realise you've become infected.
> 
> Self-isolate, lie-down and think of England seems to be the advice and it will all go away (eventually).
> 
> But nowhere could I find what the protocol was if you got into serious breathing difficulties.



I'm in the age, diabetes, heart disease and (mild) asthma categories. My reaction would be that if I don't recover smartly, it's intensive care.


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## RogerS

Exactly so. But what is the protocol to get you into IC?

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk


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## Terry - Somerset

I mostly agree with Chris152, but a few comments:

I will personally be adapting my own behaviour to reduce my risk as I am within a fairly high risk group - avoid crowds, public transport, etc. But we need to keep a sense of proportion - currently there are around 250 cases identified (could be under reported) within a population of approx 60m - approx 1 in every 200,000 -300,000. Risks today are low - but in three weeks time.........?

But if the virus is now out in the community closing schools would delay the spread, but not stop it. 

There are approx 9m (age 5-18) pupils in primary and secondary schools, plus (say) approx 2m in pre-school. Assume all children below the age of 14 (say 8m) need some form of parental supervision. Some parents may come to arrangements with friends, family or have more than one child. But around 5m adults would need to stop work to care for children - a large part of the total UK workforce which also includes nurses, doctors, health care etc.

The final point is for how long would they remain closed. Perversely by delaying the spread of C19, their closure would actually be extended, possibly to several months. Whether it is seeen as the loss to the economy or the affect on individual household incomes, the impact would be severe.


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## Trainee neophyte

Lons":adl6acao said:


> Trainee neophyte":adl6acao said:
> 
> 
> 
> We also have to consider whether the government in power will lose voters, so will have an eye to the next election. This may be more important than the economics.
> 
> 
> 
> With 5 years left in office I doubt that will be top of the agenda at the minute although it is a given that it's always a factor.
> 
> 
> 
> Which voting demographic will be hardest hit? If conservative voters are healthier than labour voters, it will tilt the voting result.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> At the last election a large percentage of labour stronghold voters changed sides, these are largely in areas where the population is least healthy, low paid workers or on benefits, smokers, poor diet etc so I guess those conservative votes would be lost given your argument.
> How long have you lived in isolation in Greece TM?
> 
> Anyway, please don't let this escalate into a political thread, I won't add any political comments to what I've said in this post.
Click to expand...


Hard not to be political when discussing politicians, but I fully agree not to be partisan. I was trying to highlight the cynicism and lack of empathy that will be brought to bear when making decisions about who lives and who dies. Do you think preventing elderly people dying, or preventing banks collapsing will be the priority? Any and all flavours of politician will have the same answer to that one.

Oh, and about twenty years f insolation. Sometimes it shows. Who knew it was such a good idea? I thought I was being antisocial - didn't realise it was just me getting ahead of the epidemic.


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## Trainee neophyte

Terry - Somerset":2sew3b98 said:


> ...
> The final point is for how long would they remain closed. Perversely by delaying the spread of C19, their closure would actually be extended, possibly to several months. Whether it is seeen as the loss to the economy or the affect on individual household incomes, the impact would be severe.


Delay is good. The slower the spread, the less strain on resources (i.e. the NHS), and the slower the spread, the more likely it will peter out in the summer. Until next winter, anyway.

However, expect a banking crisis because of all this. There was one coming anyway, but this won't help. Many billions of free money to be passed to bankers (again), because they are worth it. There probably won't be any left over for people with viruses, but never mind. Time for more austerity, because it's good for you.


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## Chris152

RogerS":1dxaxctl said:


> Well this seems a reasonable approach to me
> 
> https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk ... istancing/


Yes - those are the measures I think we should already be taking if we really want to slow down the spread of the virus.

Terry-S - Yes, the figures look less worrying like that, but remember that the incubation period is long, so in two or three weeks we'll have a better idea of how many people are actually infected right now. By which time...


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## lurker

Chris, you are either a politician or a consultant .

You keep saying you you are no expert and then stating what measures should be taken.


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## Chris152

Ah, ok. If you're not an expert in something, say nothing? Traffic on this forum should become pretty limited on that basis.


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## MusicMan

RogerS":3fh11i0s said:


> Exactly so. But what is the protocol to get you into IC?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk



I would call 111 and, if that didn't work, call my GP surgery. I guess I could call the cardio and diabetes clinics too if needed. Our local hospital has already ring fenced a block just outside the main hospital for the serious virus patients.


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## Trainee neophyte

Craig Murray has an interesting perspective on all this: https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives ... ona-virus/


> The Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968/9 was the last really serious flu pandemic to sweep the UK. They do seem extraordinarily regular – 1919, 1969 and 2020. Flu epidemics have much better punctuality than the trains (though I cheated a bit there and left out the 1958 “Asian flu”). Nowadays “Hong Kong flu” is known as H3N2. Estimates for deaths it caused worldwide vary from 1 to 4 million. In the UK it killed an estimated 80,000 people...


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## Trevanion

"The two latest cases are members of the same household in Pembrokeshire"


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## sawdust1

The wife just said we are nearly out of loo roll, should be an interesting shopping trip later.


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## Cheshirechappie

sawdust1":19cyx5ir said:


> The wife just said we are nearly out of loo roll, should be an interesting shopping trip later.



As a fallback, have a think about which newspaper title you despise the most, and buy a copy. Torn into squares on a loop of string ....

(This might be an opportunity for The Sun to increase it's circulation figures in Liverpool.)


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## ScaredyCat

Things have got so bad that we've had to buy the peach coloured toilet paper...

.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Things are getting really serious if you have to use both sides ...


----------



## Lons

We were in Costco this morning, not shopping for loo rolls but the scenes there were comical, there were 2 guys filling up a huge stack of bulk packs and as fast as they stacked them on people were taking them back off, not only that but off the pallet trucks as well. There were very few traders among them as you can normally tell by the trolleys used.
Woodworkers should do well when people realise they need to pay someone to build more storage to house the damn things.


----------



## AES

I don't get it. What's the thing with toilet rolls particularly? I can understand hand sterilser, but WHY toilet rolls?


----------



## RogerS

AES":3r3o28ny said:


> I don't get it. What's the thing with toilet rolls particularly? I can understand hand sterilser, but WHY toilet rolls?



Because they are stupid.


----------



## Trevanion

Catch it, Bin it, Kill it!







Selling them by the boatload! Everyone laughed when I came up with the idea...


----------



## Droogs

pmsl, You are sooo lucky I had to put my Tea down to scoll down to the image Trevanoin cause my missus would've made you get a me a new one


----------



## Lons

can see a refinement to that. An elastic band holding it on the nose turns it into a face mask, tear off and dispose after a sneeze, et voila!


----------



## Trevanion

No funny business...


----------



## Lons

What about a dual version ( one for the nose end and one for ... the other. :wink: ) Or a quad version.
You could use an auto holder maybe adapt to shoot out at sneeze detection.

Jumbo rolls for those with a big hooter? Better get a few more patents lodged.


----------



## AES

IMO, you blokes are missing a trick. These ideas all use toilet rolls which are in short supply in UK, it seems. But nothing said about kitchen rolls.

SO. We need a special jig to cut kitchen rolls into 3 smaller lengths, cross cut of course, so purists will want to use a special cross cut blade on the table saw. Add a couple of specially-curved pushed sticks (there's another patent there, along with the kitchen roll holder jig) and there's a fortune just waiting to be made.

As I don't own a table saw I'll leave the experts to sort out the finer details and just take a simple royalty on every one sold.


----------



## Geoff_S

AES":1bgo6gop said:


> IMO, you blokes are missing a trick. These ideas all use toilet rolls which are in short supply in UK, it seems. But nothing said about kitchen rolls.
> 
> SO. We need a special jig to cut kitchen rolls into 3 smaller lengths, cross cut of course, so purists will want to use a special cross cut blade on the table saw. Add a couple of specially-curved pushed sticks (there's another patent there, along with the kitchen roll holder jig) and there's a fortune just waiting to be made.
> 
> As I don't own a table saw I'll leave the experts to sort out the finer details and just take a simple royalty on every one sold.



Ahh, but you see there are cleverer people out there that have bought all the kitchen roll already!


----------



## AES

Oh dear! You mean I'm too late with my brilliance AGAIN?


----------



## Richard_C

I see an Australian newspaper printed perforations on 4 otherwise blank pages inside one edition. Excellent. 


_Meanwhile, how woodworkers and diy-ers can help others:_

Find some wood, ideally about 3x 1/2 and 4 long, no need to be precise, mdf is fine, off cuts, painted, scrap... anything. Mark the centre, drive the biggest nail you can find through and you have an instant ersatz toilet paper holder to put on top of the cistern. Make many and donate to friends. If you are a professional woodworker, stick on a fancy label and sell to people.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Those among us with military experience will know that you only need four sheets of lavatory paper - one up, one down, one across and one polish. Actually, that's three sheets of paper and a bloke from Poland. Do you think he will mind?


----------



## Bm101

Talking of meeting Europeans in strange situations....
I saw a man on my road the other day in a tracksuit carrying a long metal pole.
Intrigued, I asked him.
'Are you a pole vaulter?'

'No' he said looking baffled. 'I am German. But how do you know my name is Walther?'


----------



## AES

Ohhhhhhh Ber-Limey Bm101! AWFUL (but great). =D>


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Bm101":yqzg8oeu said:


> Talking of meeting Europeans in strange situations....
> I saw a man on my road the other day in a tracksuit carrying a long metal pole.
> Intrigued, I asked him.
> 'Are you a pole vaulter?'
> 
> 'No' he said looking baffled. 'I am German. But how do you know my name is Walther?'


----------



## AES

Fer goodness sake DO NOT encourage 'Im "T n", it'll only get worse


----------



## Fidget

This _seems _to be a good article about the situation, albeit with a strong American bias.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca


----------



## Deadeye

Well, I'm an utter newbie at woodwork.
But I was originally a virologist, and am a NED at a teaching hospital, so might as well chuck in my tuppence.

I very much hope I am wrong (and I'll come back to that in a moment) but, as it stands, I think it's going to be bad and a lot of people are going to die.
The idea that it's "only like 'flu" is unhelpful. 
Firstly, have you actually had 'flu? I mean real 'flu not just a cold. It's properly horrible. Most people go from thinking they might die to wishing they had for a while; and some do. 
Secondly, Covid-19 appears to differ in some important ways - in particular it seems to persist on surfaces longer than 'flu and there are signs that the infective dose is smaller. 
Thirdly, the bilateral interstitial pneumonia that gets presented in serious cases requires different treatment to 'flu, and that treatment (supported breathing) is in short supply - there are only around 6000 ITU beds in England. 
Fourthly, the doubling time is approximately 2-3 days - which is much swifter than 'flu. That suggests that there will be a rapid spike (mathematically, that progression would infect the whole UK in around 3 weeks).
That means a spike of very sick people will flood a scarce resource, which may also be under-staffed. Protocols are (very sensibly) being drawn up to determine the priority order - i.e. who gets taken off a ventilator to enable someone else to live.
Take a close look at Italy - because we are matching there trajectory almost exactly (the time form case 1 to case 400 is the same). Their hospitals are becoming overwhelmed an the staff exhausted. There is a very poignant crie de coeur from an italian doctor on one of the news sites today that describes this.

The contain/delay strategy is for two purposes - it attempts to reduce the size of spike by taking the problem over a longer period and so give support services the best chance to stay functional, and it limps us towards warmer, drier weather when transmission *may* be lower.

What can you do? Wash your hands with soap (soap may lyse the surface proteins of the virus an so be more effective than just washing it off). Try to avoid touching your face (the virus enters through mucous membranes, as do colds and 'flu). Be careful what you touch. Face masks are better for ?infected people to avoid spreading; they're less use use for uninfected people.

If you are immuno-compromised I'd strongly suggest you stay out of circulation for the next few weeks as much as possible. Oh, and "healthy" people can easily immuno-compromise themselves by getting run-down or other infections; so rest well and try to avoid stress (!)

Wuhan is now coming back under control because there was high compliance to the lock down. Italy does not yet appear to be. The gloomy part of me feels that the cat is out of the bag globally. However, minimising close interaction is useful. If you know people that live alone, call them and make sure they're ok.

If you become infected don't go to your GP or hospital; self isolate. You can call 111 and they will tell you to isolate and treat symptoms - fever with paracetemol - and stay hydrated. If you are asthmatic be sure to have salbutamol (or salmeterol/equivalent) available. 

Where the run on bog roll fits with all this, I have no idea.

As I said, I hope I'm wrong. If people start to reduce interaction and are diligent about precautionary measures, then I could well be.


----------



## Just4Fun

Deadeye":v3uhtvoe said:


> Firstly, have you actually had 'flu? I mean real 'flu not just a cold.


How would I know? I suspect most people are unable to tell the difference. I'm sure I couldn't. I just work on the basis that if I have cold symptoms and feel a bit off then I say I have a cold, but if I feel bad then I say I have flu. Not exactly scientific but I bet most people are the same.


----------



## lurker

You will know when you get flu believe me!!!
For at least 24 hours I wanted to die.
I have only had it once and there were repercussions (with hindsight).
My heart was effected (I thought for life) but after six months was well again.


----------



## Deadeye

Generally if you can stand up unaided, it's not 'flu


----------



## lurker

Deadeye":22x8zvy5 said:


> Generally if you can stand up unaided, it's not 'flu


 
=D>  

Unless it’s man flu and you are drunk as well.


----------



## Bm101

Fits with everything I've heard from sensible people.
My mrs works for a big pharma company. You all know them. They are about to start a rotational 1 day week on site. Rest of the time they are lap topping where possible. 
When the big pharmacy companies are _that_ worried you might want to start washing your hands more and worry about toilet paper less.

It's still containable in the uk given the right moves by Government so oh well.
My first ever political post on ukw is sadly just despairingly generic.


----------



## doctor Bob

I making my chaps wash their hands after any delivery and on a regular basis. Have sprays, paper hand towels and wipes avaliable.
wipe down handles, paint can deliveries, etc
Asking reps not to call in and no unnessesary visitors.
No handshakes.

As a small business I think the budget was as good as I could expect. I personally think it's doing a good job. Still think big events should be cancelled but understand some of the reasoning behind it.

I think it's going to be bad.


----------



## Trevanion

Just been to the local Aldi to look for bog roll of all things (Didn't find any, nor Tescos :evil, they've all got hand sanitiser chained up at each of the tills and are cleaning their hands after every customer.


----------



## Chris152

Deadeye":1ep0u3vy said:


> Take a close look at Italy - because we are matching there trajectory almost exactly (the time form case 1 to case 400 is the same).


That's rather worrying. From what I've seen, the mainstream media here, in their assessments of the potential efficacy of what's being done to protect us, aren't calling attention to this. 



Deadeye":1ep0u3vy said:


> the bilateral interstitial pneumonia that gets presented in serious cases requires different treatment to 'flu, and that treatment (supported breathing) is in short supply - there are only around 6000 ITU beds in England.


Apparently significantly fewer than in Germany, and there are far fewer here in Wales per capita than in England.

The budget announced whatever funds are needed will be available to help the NHS deal with the virus, but my guess is that the things needed most - presumably staff and equipment/ space - simply aren't available.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Interesting article here, looking at the Chinese experience and retrospectively calculating the actual numbers, as opposed to those the authorities knew about at any given time: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca It also shows that the reported numbers in every other country must, by definition, be an underestimate.








> This is one of the most important charts.
> It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
> The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
> Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
> What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
> On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
> Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.



No need to panic...

(Edit: if you do plow through the article, you may want to read the comments, too. Anyone on the internet can claim expertise, so do your own diligence, as it were.)


----------



## Chris152

The four stage strategy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP ... We0jwcmjvc


----------



## eezageeza

Trainee neophyte":2nbpsyxu said:


> Interesting article here, looking at the Chinese experience and retrospectively calculating the actual numbers, as opposed to those the authorities knew about at any given time: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca It also shows that the reported numbers in every other country must, by definition, be an underestimate.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This is one of the most important charts.
> It shows in orange bars the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
> The grey bars show the true daily coronavirus cases. The Chinese CDC found these by asking patients during the diagnostic when their symptoms started.
> Crucially, these true cases weren’t known at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards: The authorities don’t know that somebody just started having symptoms. They know when somebody goes to the doctor and gets diagnosed.
> What this means is that the orange bars show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
> On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
> Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No need to panic...
> 
> (Edit: if you do plow through the article, you may want to read the comments, too. Anyone on the internet can claim expertise, so do your own diligence, as it were.)
Click to expand...


Note that this guy has previously written about how to write a blog post that will go viral, and that the expert sources he cites are much more cautious and equivocal than he is, on the same data.


----------



## Rorschach

I am a member of several forums and some of them have a large "prepper" community. In the last few weeks these people have been practically salivating at the thought of a pandemic. I don't know if it's the excitement of potentially being proved right and vindicated for their years of preparation or what but it's rather disturbing and rather sad to watch. 

Also what's with the whole toilet paper thing? I can sort of understand buying tinned food etc but the toilet paper seems very odd, how much do they think they are going to need and have they no imagination about what to do if it ran out? Out of everything that I could run out of I think probably toilet paper is right at the bottom of my list.


----------



## Noho12C

Agree for the toilet paper. I read that you may experience"runny nose", so better stock tissues.

Though it would make sense if they are also stocking cans of baked beans.

Ok, I'm out -_-

Sent from my VKY-L09 using Tapatalk


----------



## Droogs

Perhaps they are all thinking about the pandemic of amebic dysentry that will wipe out all the coronavirus survivours


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Someone commented on the radio that his local supermarket had been stripped of all pasta ............ but all the tinned tomatoes and pasta sauces were still there. He wondered what people ate pasta with.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

The story of the bog paper shortage was that it was reported that there is a shortage of bog paper in Australia, as their bog paper is made in China and isn't being shipped. The great unwashed presumed this to be affecting us despite ours not coming from there.


----------



## Gerry

Down south their panicked buying all the toilet rolls and hand sanitizer. Up north we're going round licking door handles trying to get a fortnight off work.

Gerry


----------



## flying haggis

Noho12C":3916n0kw said:


> Agree for the toilet paper. I read that you may experience"runny nose", so better stock tissues.
> 
> Though it would make sense if they are also stocking cans of baked beans.
> 
> 
> Sent from my VKY-L09 using Tapatalk



but if you stock up on baked beans you are going to need loo roll............


----------



## worn thumbs

Now its officially a pandemic it seems the middle syllable is superfluous.


----------



## Bm101

Chris152":1nios4rk said:


> The four stage strategy:
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP ... We0jwcmjvc



The players might change but game remains the same.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Preppers are fun. Real preppers are waiting for the fall of civilization, so they can use lavatory paper as a medium of exchange. That and feminine hygiene products are assumed to be the most sought-after trade goods in war zones, seige conditions etc. I think that this is mostly due to an article written by some chap who survived the Sarajevo seige. Other items assumed to be usable as money would be alcohol (preferably spirits), and ammunition (most preppers I come across are decidedly yankiferous, and therefore armed to the teeth).

What the general public are doing with the lavatory paper thing, I don't know. Perhaps there is a fear that they will be housebound for a fortnight, and no one knows how much they use in a daily basis. 

If it is just people being sheep, can we get everyone to hoard anything truly nonsensical? Start a rumour that sugar-free gummy bears are being hoarded, and running out. (Btw, if you have been quarantined and have nothing else to do with your life, read the Amazon reviews on sugar free gummy bears - it's more entertaining than you might think).


----------



## Steliz

Rorschach":3fmbyys8 said:


> Also what's with the whole toilet paper thing?



I reckon they imagine themselves in the near future looking out of their living room window onto a dystopian nightmare with grey, desperate, shuffling and moaning hollow eyed people begging strangers for just one sheet or exchanging their family heirlooms for an entire roll and they stand there, feeling really really smug, protected inside their home by the presence of toilet paper. Probably.


----------



## DrPhill

Trainee neophyte":jbmrxgy1 said:


> If it is just people being sheep, can we get everyone to hoard anything truly nonsensical? Start a rumour that sugar-free gummy bears are being hoarded, and running out.



Aaah, that explains the need for toilet roll.......


----------



## Trevanion

I heard stocks of Surströmming are looking really dire, if anyone wants to get any nows the time before they totally disappear off the shelves!


----------



## Phlebas

Trevanion":33nv0g4t said:


> I heard stocks of Surströmming are looking really dire, if anyone wants to get any nows the time before they totally disappear off the shelves!



Hey, I don't normally post on the general board here, but you must know it isn't the season for the new surströmming for months yet. 

Do you want to promote illegal herring fermenting? 

(I actually like it, by the way). 

[Memo to self: mmm, must buy into durian futures too...]


----------



## Lons

Rorschach":3fof4rth said:


> I think probably toilet paper is right at the bottom of my list.



Was the use of the word "bottom" deliberate? :lol:


----------



## MikeG.

Phlebas":2bso9wqu said:


> .......[Memo to self: mmm, must buy into durian futures too...]



Guess what we got these guys to aim at?







I'd carried it in my car for a few days. I've no sense of smell, but the others on the trip started retching when they went near my vehicle.


----------



## Rorschach

Lons":2919kz9w said:


> Rorschach":2919kz9w said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think probably toilet paper is right at the bottom of my list.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Was the use of the word "bottom" deliberate? :lol:
Click to expand...


Maybe


----------



## Phlebas

MikeG.":1mfq2dci said:


> Phlebas":1mfq2dci said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......[Memo to self: mmm, must buy into durian futures too...]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guess what we got these guys to aim at?
> 
> I'd carried it in my car for a few days. I've no sense of smell, but the others on the trip started retching when they went near my vehicle.
Click to expand...


Funny you should say that. Currently on my worktop for snacks:






I partially grew up in Singapore. Aged ancestors just got back (on the wings of Covid19), so they brought me this as a reminder. You used not to be allowed to take the actual fruit on a 'plane. 

I rather like durian, I find the smell comforting.


----------



## MJP

Well, there's one section of the population that's not worried about running out of bog roll - and that's the folks, like me, who have a stoma!
Talk about silver linings....!
Martin.


----------



## RogerS

phil.p":1s2ile2z said:


> Someone commented on the radio that his local supermarket had been stripped of all pasta ............ but all the tinned tomatoes and pasta sauces were still there. He wondered what people ate pasta with.



Loo rolls ?


----------



## RogerS

Gerry":1q385xm7 said:


> Down south their panicked buying all the toilet rolls and hand sanitizer. Up north we're going round licking door handles trying to get a fortnight off work.
> 
> Gerry




Think you might be out of luck.....well, depends what you define as North, I guess...You've got the North Midlands in Manchester. The Upper North Midlands in Yorkshire. But you do need to come a lot further towards the North Pole to be really North :wink: 

Sunny Northumberland....no cases. Damn.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

North? Bodmin.


----------



## SammyQ

In days of old, 
When knights were bold, 
An' bog roll hadn't been invented,
They wiped their ass,
On a piece of grass, 
And went away contented.

There! Somebody HAD to do it!

8)


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":e7496ukz said:


> Lots of enthusiasm to put the boot in wrt China, but would any western government have done as well? Italy knew about the virus well in advance, and how is that going? H1N1 originated in USA, was going to kill everyone, and that was spectacular in its failure to be contained. However, because it was USA to blame, no one mentioned it.
> 
> As with all things, there is a political element to everything you read. Some of it may even be true.



I suspect that any half-competent western government (I do not include countries with mediterranean coastlines or Balkan countries in that category) would have done much better in the initial stages, simply because in democracies govts are forced to address issues in a critical environment.

In the Chinese system by contrast _every_ aspect of life must be measured against the interests of the party and those interests are paramount. The instincts of such governments seem to be to suppress facts which could put them in a bad light. Consider the USSR's initial response to Chernobyl.

However, once the Chinese did cough (no pun intended) to having a problem, they were able to use their totalitarianism to a practical advantage in a way that is not open to any western country unless it has won a degree of public consent first. Western govts will usually be able to achieve this as people are generally sensible in a crisis if sensibly briefed.

So on the whole I think that the answer to your question is a qualified, "Yes, they would have done better".


----------



## MikeG.

My daughter runs a language school in Spain. They've just been told to close for a fortnight. That'll be a Spanish fortnight because Easter is only a week after the end date of that closure, which means it will be 5 weeks minimum before they're open again. She's getting her staff together to sort out online lessons, starting Monday.


----------



## RogerS

Must confess to being a tad worried about the 'new' approach to Covid-19 what with being in one of the categories. Sounds a bit to me like 'Yer on yer own'


----------



## Just4Fun

Andy Kev.":1kk6s73r said:


> Trainee neophyte":1kk6s73r said:
> 
> 
> 
> So on the whole I think that the answer to your question is a qualified, "Yes, they would have done better".
Click to expand...

I view it differently, and instead of "would have" we can look at actual performance. Because of the Chinese experience _all_ other countries knew _something_ was coming as far back as January. What have they really done about it since then? Very few have handled it well and this is leading to exponential growth of cases in dozens of countries. To me, the facts show that (with 2 or 3 notable exceptions) other countries are handling things worse than the Chinese did despite getting more warning.


----------



## AES

MAYBE you're right - maybe! But the point about "controlled regimes" is certainly valid, AND there seems to my (completely untutored) eye that to a large extent, any country can do practically anything it thinks necessary and the virus will still spread exponentially.


----------



## John Brown

Exponentially is an abused word.
The money in my bank account grows exponentially, but at 0.01% or whatever it is right now, it's not alarming me.


----------



## Just4Fun

AES":ezxkqkma said:


> MAYBE you're right - maybe! But the point about "controlled regimes" is certainly valid, AND there seems to my (completely untutored) eye that to a large extent, any country can do practically anything it thinks necessary and the virus will still spread exponentially.


Sure, most countries have failed to restrict the spread but there are exceptions. Look at Singapore. They have been much more proactive about testing and preventative measures and the spread there has been more linear than exponential. Other countries could have learned from their example but few have.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Breaking news: [youtube]uhP7ua1igNg[/youtube]


----------



## nev

edited: before it degenerates.


----------



## nev

back on topic.


----------



## Chris152

Just4Fun":10v4uyp1 said:


> AES":10v4uyp1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> MAYBE you're right - maybe! But the point about "controlled regimes" is certainly valid, AND there seems to my (completely untutored) eye that to a large extent, any country can do practically anything it thinks necessary and the virus will still spread exponentially.
> 
> 
> 
> Sure, most countries have failed to restrict the spread but there are exceptions. Look at Singapore. They have been much more proactive about testing and preventative measures and the spread there has been more linear than exponential. Other countries could have learned from their example but few have.
Click to expand...

Peter Drobac (infectious disease specialist) on Politics Live just now described the UK's position (letting things run in a relatively uncontrolled manner) as being 'out on a limb' in relation to other developed countries and indicated how Singapore among others had been successful with immediate, strong measures being taken. Jeremy Hunt made exactly the same points last night. It's clear the scientific community isn't of 'one voice' on how things should be, but it's also clear our govt is taking the most laissez-faire approach possible while still being able to say its not doing nothing. What possible reason could there be for this?

ps Saying the govt is 'being led by science' doesn't add up to much. It's not like other governments are asking greengrocers what they should do.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

I went shopping this morning, and I bought:

20 tomato plants
20 cucumber plants
10 pepper plants
6 courgette plants
4 aubergine plants
2 sweet potatoes (to make sets)
Sweetcorn seeds
Carrot seeds
Probably bought some other stuff to plant too, but memory fails me. Luckily there were no queues, and no rationing. The lad who runs the shop was wearing a balaclava as some sort of virus protection, which is odd because he sells very good quality 3m masks for chemical spraying. I may have taken the Michael a little bit.

Does all this this make me a prepper, or a poor, pathetic person who panics? Or is it just time to plant the garden...?

(In other news, the Olympic torch procession has just been cancelled. It went through our village yesterday, but today it is far too dangerous. A reasonable assumption, as it would have been heading for the Greek version of Camborne, and no one wants that on their conscience, do they?)


----------



## Just4Fun

Trainee neophyte":zqoon3m9 said:


> Does all this this make me a prepper, or a poor, pathetic person who panics? Or is it just time to plant the garden...?


Definitely not a prepper as you didn't get any rice. Preppers always seem to lust after huge quantities of rice. And beans. Why? Do they normally live on rice and beans? I use very little of either, but maybe I am just odd. I was in a shop the other day and saw rice for sale in 25kg bags. That would be a lifetime's supply for me.


----------



## NickM

I watched the press conference yesterday and I thought the UK approach makes complete sense. Every decision has a negative consequence so it's about trying to take the action which produces most gains with the most manageable downsides, and closing schools wouldn't, at the moment, have big enough gains to warrant the enormous downsides. Of course that might change at some point.

At one extreme, the most effective way to stop the spread of the virus would presumably be to order everyone not to leave their houses until further notice with no exceptions. Of course that wouldn't be workable and would rapidly bring the country to its knees. The puzzle is deciding where on the scale of possible actions to be at a particular point in time in order to get big gains in delaying the spread without too costly side effects.

The US banning flights from mainland Europe looks like a strong measure but likely won't have any significant impact in terms of virus spread so is probably a bad decision.

I've heard the government referred to as "timid", but I don't think simply following what others do is brave.

The other thing to keep in mind is that we actually need this virus to spread widely so that the population as a whole can become immune. Again, the aim is have a slower more controlled spread so that the more badly affected can be cared for.

Time will tell of course, but hopefully everyone will try to follow the government advice to give the strategy the best chance of success.

I hope that one silver cloud out of all of this is that people become a bit kinder and more considerate of others, although some of the shopping behaviour suggests that might be too much to hope for.

In the meantime, I'm going to panic buy some timber this weekend so I've got something to do when I can't go to work. Failing that, I can pulp it all and make my own bog roll...


----------



## lurker

The China lockdown (enforced with a gun) would not work here.
Appears to me that half the uk population have an inflated sense of entitlement, and think rules are fine....... but only for other people.


----------



## lurker

If Jeremy Unt says something, then I am fine with the exact opposite.


----------



## Chris152

'Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the medical journal _The Lancet_, has accused the prime minister of “playing roulette” with the lives of vulnerable citizens, while the former regional director of Public Health England, John Ashton, has said the country has “wasted a month” in tackling the epidemic'.
(_The Independent_, 'Coronavirus: Trump and Johnson response to outbreak like ‘watching horror film’, says Italian doctor...)
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 1584092511


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I did hear Lidl's response to the panic buying was to open the third till.


----------



## Jake

John Brown":1xo80ncz said:


> Exponentially is an abused word.
> The money in my bank account grows exponentially, but at 0.01% or whatever it is right now, it's not alarming me.



That's compounded growth, not exponential growth. If your money grew exponentially, you'd be much richer than Bill Gates.

Look up grains of rice and chessboards!


----------



## Chris152

Chris152":1am0f0va said:


> 'Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of the medical journal _The Lancet_, has accused the prime minister of “playing roulette” with the lives of vulnerable citizens, while the former regional director of Public Health England, John Ashton, has said the country has “wasted a month” in tackling the epidemic'.
> (_The Independent_, 'Coronavirus: Trump and Johnson response to outbreak like ‘watching horror film’, says Italian doctor...)
> https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 1584092511


ps The important bit in the article is the plea for people to act responsibly _in spite of_ our government's failure to do so.


----------



## Bm101

Two fellas I would take great pleasure in meeting with a roll of lead in each hand and 2 minutes each to introduce myself properly and explain my view of the world based on the way my father taught me to conduct myself.


----------



## That would work

Of course we are all experts.
However in my opinion what is being done to curb this situation does make sense. It's about timing coupled with the fact that a largeish proportion of the population needs to catch it in order to develop herd immunity. This has to be squared with the publics likely reaction to drastic measures which end up going on for too long... apathy. You then end up with a situation where people are off guard at the very height of the infection.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Just a thought - is anyone else convinced they are coming down with a cold/influenza/coronanvirus/cancer every morning?

Or is it just me?


----------



## Chris152

That would work":1sde2rkt said:


> It's about timing coupled with the fact that a largeish proportion of the population needs to catch it in order to develop herd immunity.


Yep, heard about the herd thing yesterday when they started mentioning it - sounds ok, so long as it happens in a controlled fashion allowing the NHS to cope, not some ridiculous spike that could have been avoided if appropriate measures had been taken by the govt. And assuming we can generate immunity to it, and that the immunity lasts long enough to have an effect in future. Which is far from clear, apparently.


----------



## Trevanion

I woke up in the middle of the night absolutely drenched in sweat and coughing like there was no tomorrow, All I thought was "I've got no time to die now, I've got X and Y to do tomorrow."

I got up again four hours later and was completely fine. I think the cure for the Coronavirus may just be being busy.


----------



## Doug B

On the plus side of the Coronavirus my much younger wife has encouraged me to go to the pub as often as I like & to start enjoying life as much as I can, I took a positive move for me to enjoy my twilight years until I realised she’d a taken out a rather large insurance policy on me :-k :-k


----------



## That would work

I think this thread should be removed by the moderators.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

There seems to be two fundamentally different approaches.

The first as implemeted by China, Italy and much of the rest of Europe is to minimise the immediate impacts by shutting down pretty much all except essential activity. Includes travel, shops, schools, cinema, theatres, sports events, etc.

This gives an immediate practical and political benefit. No social interaction (bar essential services) means that virus transmission is much reduced. But it is unclear what happens when the controls are relaxed - is it over, or do the infections start rising again.

The UK response is based upon acceptance that there is no vaccine or effective treatment at present. So the objective is to flatten the peak to minimise stress on NHS (although it will still struggle to cope), move the peak to the summer when virus transmission is expected to fall, and build up to some herd immunity.

Which approach is right I don't know. I'm inclined to back the UK approach as it seems to be objectively based on quality science and analysis, and not the product (at least in part) of political expediency and game playing.

In a few months we will know!


----------



## RogerS

Trainee neophyte":16lhbxho said:


> Just a thought - is anyone else convinced they are coming down with a cold/influenza/coronanvirus/cancer every morning?
> 
> Or is it just me?



Hang on, I'll let you know once I've got the Night Nurse off me.


----------



## Irish Rover

MikeG.":1212ider said:


> My daughter runs a language school in Spain. They've just been told to close for a fortnight. That'll be a Spanish fortnight because Easter is only a week after the end date of that closure, which means it will be 5 weeks minimum before they're open again. She's getting her staff together to sort out online lessons, starting Monday.



I believe it was decided in the COBRA meeting, but not announced yet, that our schools will close next Friday, the week before Easter.

Patrick Vallance is a distant relative of mine and that has come down the family grapevine.


----------



## That would work

Oh dear. More hearsay nonsense!!!!!
Ha ha government policy surfaces on woodworking forum ... brilliant =D>


----------



## John Brown

Jake":2bww9a9t said:


> John Brown":2bww9a9t said:
> 
> 
> 
> Exponentially is an abused word.
> The money in my bank account grows exponentially, but at 0.01% or whatever it is right now, it's not alarming me.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's compounded growth, not exponential growth. If your money grew exponentially, you'd be much richer than Bill Gates.
> 
> Look up grains of rice and chessboards!
Click to expand...

I don't need to, thanks. I'm 67, I first saw the grains of rice and chessboard thing about 64 years ago(by a strange coincidence), and it's a bit boring by now. Having worked with binary stuff for over 40 years, I have an idea of what 2^64 looks like.
I think you'll find I'm right, if you care to do a bit of research. Compound interest is an example of exponential growth.


----------



## Irish Rover

That would work":3a26iri1 said:


> Oh dear. More hearsay nonsense!!!!!
> Ha ha government policy surfaces on woodworking forum ... brilliant =D>



Time will tell...


----------



## That would work

BJ often consults me regarding keeping his bevel rubbing.     :shock: :? 8) :x (homer) =D>


----------



## Irish Rover

For someone who wants the thread closing you're very lippy :tool:


----------



## That would work

Tool? Ah thank goodness we are back to woodworking. Got ya... lighten up


----------



## That would work

Yep.... after doubling on a chessboard by the time you reach squre 64 you need a very very very long piece of paper to write the number :shock: :shock: :shock:


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Does this forum count as a large social gathering, or working from home?


----------



## TFrench

We work in a lot of food factories and a couple have already said they're having none of us disease ridden contractor scum on site for the next two weeks. I'm ordering paint for my lathe restoration so I've got something to do if I can't work! :lol: Here's hoping!


----------



## Chris152

On a more positive note, this vid is doing the rounds on facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/ierrejon/video ... DI4NDQzNA/


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Greece has announced a lot of closures - pretty much anything that isn't a supermarket. Current worry is that, because all hair salons are closed, everyone is going to have to show their natural hair colour.


> Health Ministry representative Sotiris Tsiodras on Friday announced new measures to curb the spread of coronavirus, saying that all malls, cafes, bars and food outlets to close though supermarkets are to remain open.
> 
> Food outlets offering home delivery service will be able to continue those, he said.
> 
> The measures came a few hours after the Culture Ministry announced that all museums and archaeological sites will close down for two weeks.
> 
> Meanwhile the number of cases of coronavirus in Greece has risen to 190.



A friend sent a message yesterday saying that her friend, who is in the Greek government, has recommended on the qt to stock up on food, as they are expecting a stock market /banking crisis, and "there will be shortages". This could be true, it could be paranoid panic mongering, or somewhere in between. It does appear that while the virus is not an issue for the majority of people, the economic fallout from all of this will be cataclysmic, and is only just starting to show. If I had any money in the bank, I would be taking it out now, and burying it in a can in the garden. Luckily, I have given all my money to Axminster Tools, so that's ok. Tools will be worth more than money soon, anyway.


----------



## Chris152

Trainee neophyte":17my9tuc said:


> A friend sent a message yesterday saying that her friend, who is in the Greek government, has recommended on the qt to stock up on food, as they are expecting a stock market /banking crisis, and "there will be shortages". This could be true, it could be paranoid panic mongering, or somewhere in between. It does appear that while the virus is not an issue for the majority of people, the economic fallout from all of this will be cataclysmic, and is only just starting to show.


Assuming that's true, would it be fair to say that a country that continued working throughout the crisis with limited regard for the health of its most vulnerable people could emerge at the end of the crisis with an economic advantage over its competitors? Just wondering.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Chris152":3h7nbl13 said:


> Trainee neophyte":3h7nbl13 said:
> 
> 
> 
> A friend sent a message yesterday saying that her friend, who is in the Greek government, has recommended on the qt to stock up on food, as they are expecting a stock market /banking crisis, and "there will be shortages". This could be true, it could be paranoid panic mongering, or somewhere in between. It does appear that while the virus is not an issue for the majority of people, the economic fallout from all of this will be cataclysmic, and is only just starting to show.
> 
> 
> 
> Assuming that's true, would it be fair to say that a country that continued working throughout the crisis with limited regard for the health of its most vulnerable people could emerge at the end of the crisis with an economic advantage over its competitors? Just wondering.
Click to expand...

Most European countries have a demographic problem - too many old people sucking resources and not producing. Any country that reduces it's pension liability will be better off financially. Whether that is a moral decision is another question. I imagine that if the average age of fatalities was 25, rather than 75 or whatever it is, different decisions would be made.


----------



## Just4Fun

Trainee neophyte":2hnazoot said:


> It does appear that while the virus is not an issue for the majority of people, the economic fallout from all of this will be cataclysmic ...


But "every cloud", "it's an ill wind" etc. The biggest factory in my local town has added extra shifts and increased production as a result of all this. What do they make? Toilet rolls. I can't understand why this is the commodity so many people panic buy but it is certainly helping my local economy.


----------



## Chris152

Trainee neophyte":3ljwi94x said:


> Most European countries have a demographic problem - too many old people sucking resources and not producing. Any country that reduces it's pension liability will be better off financially. Whether that is a moral decision is another question. I imagine that if the average age of fatalities was 25, rather than 75 or whatever it is, different decisions would be made.


I was thinking of the damage done to the vulnerable as a secondary outcome - that the actual goal might be to keep the economy working as fully as possible regardless, giving an edge over other nations at the end of the crisis?


----------



## doctor Bob

Just4Fun":sa70lmwd said:


> Trainee neophyte":sa70lmwd said:
> 
> 
> 
> It does appear that while the virus is not an issue for the majority of people, the economic fallout from all of this will be cataclysmic ...
> 
> 
> 
> But "every cloud", "it's an ill wind" etc. The biggest factory in my local town has added extra shifts and increased production as a result of all this. What do they make? Toilet rolls. I can't understand why this is the commodity so many people panic buy but it is certainly helping my local economy.
Click to expand...


Not really, people are not shiiting more .................. at some point the factory will go deathly quiet as people use stock.


----------



## doctor Bob

I see zero benefits ..............
I've spent 15 years building up a successful business, I can see that potentially going.
My parents are 87, OK fair do's they have had a good innings but if they catch it they are probably goners.
Wife is asmatic.
Son been in job 8 months loves it, they love him as well but last in first out..........

Makes me feel sick hearing people looking forward to a few weeks of self isolating so they can get job's done around the house and garden.

funny old world


----------



## Geoff_S

Irish Rover":139mdz20 said:


> I believe it was decided in the COBRA meeting, but not announced yet, that our schools will close next Friday, the week before Easter.



Cobra is a good alternative to Corona but I do prefer a Stella Artois.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

doctor Bob":12anasuz said:


> I see zero benefits ..............
> I've spent 15 years building up a successful business, I can see that potentially going.
> My parents are 87, OK fair do's they have had a good innings but if they catch it they are probably goners.
> Wife is asmatic.
> Son been in job 8 months loves it, they love him as well but last in first out..........
> 
> Makes me feel sick hearing people looking forward to a few weeks of self isolating so they can get job's done around the house and garden.
> 
> funny old world


If, like me, you subscribe to the "We're all doomed!" school of economics, you may believe that the downturn currently starting is long overdue, and the last ten years growth has been built entirely on fake, printed wealth. We need to have bankruptcies, and lots of them, to clear out the dead wood, failed ideas and uneconomic businesses that are still tottering along because of zero interest rates and free money (if you know the right people).

If you believe that the last ten years have been an exemplary recovery, with solid grass-roots economic growth and lots of new business creation, then this little virus hiccough will be merely a blip on the balance sheet. 

It's early days yet, but there may not be any tourists this year, which would cut my gross income by two thirds. There may not be any tourists for several years, which will be interesting to say the least. Think of all those assets the banks are going to collect due to failure to pay mortgages...banks always make money in a recession, and they can't lose now, thanks to the government - what a business model!

Some chap on the BBC this morning was saying that the government has to just hand out free money to all the big businesses, paid for by the tax payer for another three generations. We haven't paid for the last bailout yet, and it is time for the next one. I wonder how much they can screw out of Greece this time around?


----------



## Irish Rover

You get tuppence back on your Corona pop bottle.
Can Stella match that?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Lastminutecruises.com: Book a week's cruise, get two weeks extra - free!

Use discount code: "Corona"

(Via the wife's farcebook - not all my own work)


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":19ocdoav said:


> Trainee neophyte":19ocdoav said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just a thought - is anyone else convinced they are coming down with a cold/influenza/coronanvirus/cancer every morning?
> 
> Or is it just me?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hang on, I'll let you know once I've got the Night Nurse off me.
Click to expand...


No rush: I can wait until you've finished.


----------



## Chris152

That would work":1iw830zu said:


> Of course we are all experts.
> However in my opinion what is being done to curb this situation does make sense. It's about timing coupled with the fact that a largeish proportion of the population needs to catch it in order to develop herd immunity. This has to be squared with the publics likely reaction to drastic measures which end up going on for too long... apathy. You then end up with a situation where people are off guard at the very height of the infection.


So, what is it that you think we're doing right that Italy did wrong at this relatively early stage? Because from what I can see, we're heading in exactly the same direction as Italy in the early stages, based on today's figures. Is the cunning plan to end up in the same situation as Italy - or worse - but with 'herd immunity' as the justification?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Chris152":2cnbj2kq said:


> So, what is it that you think we're doing right that Italy did wrong at this relatively early stage? Because from what I can see, we're heading in exactly the same direction as Italy in the early stages, based on today's figures. Is the cunning plan to end up in the same situation as Italy - or worse - but with 'herd immunity' as the justification?



Herd immunity just means everyone caught it. The only benefit that I can see is that next year there won't be a crisis, because everyone is now either immune or dead (or very lucky). Those countries that actually manage to stamp it out will be fighting it every year - I don't think the genie will go back in the bottle this time. On that basis, the reality is that everyone is going to catch it anyway - you might as well sell the benefits and make people feel they are contributing to the solution.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Just4Fun":18qbimu6 said:


> . The biggest factory in my local town has added extra shifts and increased production as a result of all this. What do they make? Toilet rolls. I can't understand why this is the commodity so many people panic buy but it is certainly helping my local economy.



Apparently the shortage originated in Australia - it was reported that they had a shortage because theirs comes (or doesn't come) from China, ours doesn't but idiots everywhere else took it to be universal.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Ok, it officially just got serious.

Greece has closed the municipal beaches. Apparently everyone in Athens is bored at home, so they all went to the beach because it's a nice day. Fun police now jumping all over that.


----------



## Nelsun

It's also worth noting that the word "immunity" is misleading as cases of reinfection are increasing. You can get rid of it but, being a virus, you can catch it again. I know, I initially thought I'd rather just have it and be done with it... but then the better half (a staff nurse) burst that bubble PDQ.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I had double pneumonia. I was working part time and when I returned to work a rather sweet elderly lady inquired after my health. Oh, I'm fine now, I said. I hear you had double pneumonia? Yes, that's right. She hesitated for a moment. Well, you know the best thing about that don't you? No, I said. Well, when you get it again you'll know exactly what you've got.

Surely enough, I got it again. I rung the doctor and he said what makes you so sure it's pneumonia? I've had it before. Right, you've got pneumonia, come in a quickly as you can. I told him the story and he said unfortunately she was right. I've had the jab now.


----------



## Geoff_S

phil.p":2iqkoct6 said:


> I had double pneumonia. I was working part time and when I returned to work a rather sweet elderly lady inquired after my health. Oh, I'm fine now, I said. I hear you had double pneumonia? Yes, that's right. She hesitated for a moment. Well, you know the best thing about that don't you? No, I said. Well, when you get it again you'll know exactly what you've got.
> 
> Surely enough, I got it again. I rung the doctor and he said what makes you so sure it's pneumonia? I've had it before. Right, you've got pneumonia, come in a quickly as you can. I told him the story and he said unfortunately she was right. I've had the jab now.



When I feel unwell I always know what's wrong with me. The doctor just gives it a name.


----------



## That would work

Chris152":2dfko6qn said:



> That would work":2dfko6qn said:
> 
> 
> 
> Of course we are all experts.
> However in my opinion what is being done to curb this situation does make sense. It's about timing coupled with the fact that a largeish proportion of the population needs to catch it in order to develop herd immunity. This has to be squared with the publics likely reaction to drastic measures which end up going on for too long... apathy. You then end up with a situation where people are off guard at the very height of the infection.
> 
> 
> 
> So, what is it that you think we're doing right that Italy did wrong at this relatively early stage? Because from what I can see, we're heading in exactly the same direction as Italy in the early stages, based on today's figures. Is the cunning plan to end up in the same situation as Italy - or worse - but with 'herd immunity' as the justification?
Click to expand...

I'm not a doctor.
But that does not make me untrustworthy. I was saying that as far as my sense of logic goes, it makes good sense.


----------



## thetyreman

mods what's with the title change? it's supposed to be 'coronovirus and masks' 

it was originally about how the masks are not really working to stop the spread of the disease. :shock:


----------



## That would work

The mods are an unknown and distant force on this forum it seems. Bizarre action.


----------



## Trevanion

It makes you wonder how people in these poor Subsaharan countries survive where AIDS/HIV, Diahorrea, Tuburculosis and Malaria kills on average 6000 people *per day* between them, many of them children.

And we're having a panic attack about not having enough toilet roll, over by some accounts, a mild version of the flu.

On the thread name change, I think the mods have merged both Corona threads into one.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Trevanion":357jlfgn said:


> On the thread name change, I think the mods have merged both Corona threads into one.



I rather liked the separation of silliness and serious discussion. It all looks a bit disjointed now, and somewhat lacking in civility. I apologise to anyone who doesn't appreciate coffin humour.


----------



## Jake

John Brown":3i5mqduj said:


> Jake":3i5mqduj said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> John Brown":3i5mqduj said:
> 
> 
> 
> Exponentially is an abused word.
> The money in my bank account grows exponentially, but at 0.01% or whatever it is right now, it's not alarming me.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's compounded growth, not exponential growth. If your money grew exponentially, you'd be much richer than Bill Gates.
> 
> Look up grains of rice and chessboards!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I don't need to, thanks. I'm 67, I first saw the grains of rice and chessboard thing about 64 years ago(by a strange coincidence), and it's a bit boring by now. Having worked with binary stuff for over 40 years, I have an idea of what 2^64 looks like.
> I think you'll find I'm right, if you care to do a bit of research. Compound interest is an example of exponential growth.
Click to expand...


Yes, apologies, maths a bit rustier than yours , associated it with powers greater than 1. I guess the better point is that the r0 is not 0.01, but somewhere around 2, so not just exponential but more importantly a square just like the boring rice.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Herd immunity isn't the solution. 

Trying to spread the load on already stretched NHS - brexit hasn't helped because many foreign NHS staff have returned to the COI and we haven't refilled their posts. 

I'd be more concerned that the UK's method is more of a thinning of "the herd" - just think of all those pensions they wont need to pay out on, savings on those expensive operations that the NHS would otherwise have to pay for.



Trevanion":3pux60k4 said:


> a mild version of the flu.



For anyone on steroid therapy, undergoing chemotherapy, with HIV infection, with diabetes, with cardiovascular disease, or with chronic pulmonary disease it's a lot more serious than a mild version of the flu (which only manages to kill 1%)

The (confirmed) fatality rates are high for people in those categories:

Cardiovascular disease 13.2% 
Diabetes 9.2%
Chronic respiratory disease 8.0%
Hypertension 8.4%
Cancer 7.6%

The fatality rate for people over 80 who contract the virus is 21.9% , 70-80 it's 8% those are not insignificant numbers. 


.


----------



## Droogs

besides if all the oldies die, whose gonna vote for Boris next time :-k


----------



## Phil Pascoe

That would work":1baqwo70 said:


> The mods are an unknown and distant force on this forum it seems. Bizarre action.



To be fair, they have more than their fair share of crepe to deal with without a shortage of toilet rolls.
I wondered why the two threads hadn't been joined up before - it's not as if it's sharpening or flattening something.


----------



## thetyreman

thought this was good about facemasks:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51 ... ually-work


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I use Dettol because of a long term problem - I can't get it because idiots are hoarding it.


----------



## Cordy

As UN doctors sift through 20 million corpses

A trend emerges -- Their hands, spotlessly clean.... all of them


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Droogs":317y1rqw said:


> besides if all the oldies die, whose gonna vote for Boris next time :-k


Yeah, shame we couldn't have had the brexit referendum next year.... (homer)


----------



## RogerS

Trevanion":3jlyen7r said:


> .....
> And we're having a panic attack ..... over by some accounts, a mild version of the flu.
> 
> .



I think you might have missed the doctor on R4 talking about her experiences of catching it. I thought I wanted to catch it early and beat the rush. Now I simply don't want it.


----------



## Andy Kev.

I refuse to get involved in panic buying or "hamstering" as the Germans call it.

Two things seem to be flying off the shelves: toilet paper rolls. A bit odd: I could understand it if one of the symptoms was diarrhoea but people can be strange.

The really baffling one is flour for baking bread. I saw one woman coming out of the supermarket this morning with a shrink wrapped pack of about 10 bags. Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled.

I imagine that a lot of housewives will come to regret this as freshly baked bread is very nice indeed and some families might start demanding it as the norm.


----------



## Trevanion

RogerS":6vk06gqm said:


> I think you might have missed the doctor on R4 talking about her experiences of catching it. I thought I wanted to catch it early and beat the rush. Now I simply don't want it.



That's why I said "Some accounts". Some people will have a bad time, some people will have a far worse time. I suspect if people have never had a disease or virus in their life it will be the worst thing they'll ever experience, myself included. My main point really was there is far worse happening on the planet right now comparatively, it's just because it's happening in the first world rather than solely the third people are crying bloody panic and clearing all the shelves everywhere which is quite a nice luxury to have really, because those poor sods in Africa never had anything on the shelves to panic buy anyway.

I'm still fairly optimistic not much will actually happen and there is a humungous amount of scaremongering going on, but it's early yet and I may be eating my hat before long, perhaps coughing at the same time.


----------



## RogerS

Trevanion":1olydw55 said:


> .... but it's early yet and I may be eating my hat before long, ...



If the panic buying continues .....


----------



## RogerS

"People in Britain aged over 70 will be instructed soon by the government to stay in strict isolation for four months as part of a planned response to coronavirus, broadcaster ITV's political editor said."

Sod that for a game of soldiers. No chance. Too much to do.

EDIT: And what are they proposing for couples both of whom are over-70. Living in rural areas. Or in cities.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Andy Kev.":88mqvu1w said:


> Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled



Places like Morrisons/Sainsbury's allow you to 'pick and mix' from open containers.

Even if there were no virus, I'd never use them but some people might just consider it safer. When I make bread, typically it's got 500g of flour in it and the results are eaten within a day. 10 bags of flour doesn't sound a lot if you're not going back to a supermarket any time soon.

.


----------



## ScaredyCat

RogerS":9ljw9s2v said:


> "People in Britain aged over 70 will be instructed soon by the government to stay in strict isolation for four months as part of a planned response to coronavirus, broadcaster ITV's political editor said."
> 
> Sod that for a game of soldiers. No chance. Too much to do.



I wonder, will any care packages contain wood and glue?

.


----------



## johnfarris

I think this chap sums up the current situation perfectly 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeO ... e=emb_logo


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I have had measles which very nearly killed me, anaphylactic shock which very nearly killed me, appendicitis which nearly killed me, two doses of double pneumonia, serious flu and eight digit and limb amputations. I have high blood pressure, arthritis, gout, diabetes and an enlarged prostrate. Only the good die young.


----------



## Trevanion

phil.p":233739vs said:


> Only the good die young.



It's pre-emptive karma for selling blunt chisels, Phil...

But seriously, that's a hell of a medical history.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I get my money's worth.


----------



## MusicMan

I have too much to do, too, but I don't see myself achieving much if I die from the virus (high risk group here too). I admire your willingness to take one for the team, though.

We can't get rid of the virus before a year (vaccine development) or a few months (antiviral drug testing). We don't know positively if the herd immunity idea will work, but I think that actually it is our only chance. It can probably be delayed by the measures being introduced, and not overwhelming the NHS is required for us to have that chance. If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. The less vulnerable will contribute to the immunity pool without suffering many symptoms. If the vulnerable are isolated till the peak is passed (which is when herd immunity is a maximum) then we can mingle again with little risk (and with a health service that can cope again.

In case you think that I am supporting Boris and Co I think he and his gang are total twits. But the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser and their staffs are top-notch.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MusicMan":38tgptch said:


> I have too much to do, too, but I don't see myself achieving much if I die from the virus (high risk group here too). I admire your willingness to take one for the team, though.
> 
> We can't get rid of the virus before a year (vaccine development) or a few months (antiviral drug testing). We don't know positively if the herd immunity idea will work, but I think that actually it is our only chance. It can probably be delayed by the measures being introduced, and not overwhelming the NHS is required for us to have that chance. If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. The less vulnerable will contribute to the immunity pool without suffering many symptoms. If the vulnerable are isolated till the peak is passed (which is when herd immunity is a maximum) then we can mingle again with little risk (and with a health service that can cope again.
> 
> In case you think that I am supporting Boris and Co I think he and his gang are total twits. But the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Scientific Adviser and their staffs are top-notch.



Herd immunity means everyone gets it. However if, as you point out, you can hide until everyone _else_ has caught it and recovered, the virus is effectively gone. It does mean living in splendid isolation, which is much easier for some than for others. 

I do think that "herd immunity" is a bit of newspeak which actually means "nothing can be done", but it is no worse than "bringing democracy", or "right to protect".

Someone needs to tell Roger that, unfortunately, he will be allowed to be in isolation along with his wife - it's not a golden opportunity to get rid of the trouble and strife. Sorry, but you can't have everything. The weekly"nurse" appointments will have to wait though...


----------



## RogerS

Well, if the news item I read is accurate, this imprisonment includes those with pre-existing medical conditions. 

So if you need regular chemo.....Boris says 'Tough'.

So if you need regular dialysis ....Boris says 'Stay home and die'.

So if you're in, say, constant pain and need morphine injections ....Boris says 'Tough'.

And it's going to take a hell of a lot longer than four months to build up the herd immunity.


----------



## Chris152

'In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.'
and
'In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402

Our Pm's more like a Chamberlain seeking appeasement than a Churchill taking the fight to the enemy. Discuss.

ps 'The National Education Union has written to the prime minister to ask why the government has decided not to shut schools to help reduce the spread of the virus and asking for "fuller disclosure" of the models it has used during its decision-making process.'


----------



## RogerS

MusicMan":3rjsq8zy said:


> .... If we go about our normal lives, a lot of the most vulnerable will catch it and die and clog up the ICUs. ....



I don't think they put corpses in ICUs  

Seriously, though, define 'most vulnerable'. I thought that that was those with an underlying medical condition which then makes sense. But what about those who are over-70 but don't have any underlying medical condition. Take no medication whatsoever ? What does imprisoning us achieve ?


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":2tdujlsx said:


> 'In an open letter, a group of 229 scientists from UK universities say the government's current approach will put the NHS under additional stress and "risk many more lives than necessary".
> The signatories also criticised comments made by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, about managing the spread of the infection to make the population immune.'
> and
> 'In a separate letter to the government, more than 200 behavioural scientists have questioned the government's argument that starting tougher measures too soon would lead to people not sticking to them just at the point that the epidemic is at its height.'
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51892402
> 
> Our Pm's more like a Chamberlain seeking appeasement than a Churchill taking the fight to the enemy. Discuss.



The problem with a previously unknown situation is that conflicting opinions will always emerge. However, those in charge must settle on one analysis and implement one course of action as flexibly as they can so as to give themselves as much room for manouvre as possible.

You also have to bear in mind that political axes might be being ground under these circumstances. How many times in the past have we seen letters signed by x number of academics which have turned out to be resoundingly wrong (usually on matters of economics)?

Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.


----------



## Just4Fun

Andy Kev.":9buou7v2 said:


> The really baffling one is flour for baking bread.


Now that one makes perfect sense to me. You can't really store fresh bread for very long but the flour to make your own has a much longer shelf life. To me it is a more sensible item to stock up on if you are planning on staying at home for a while (by choice or otherwise).



> Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled.


I imagine the concern is not so much picking up the virus from the bread but picking it up from the people you encounter at the bakery or while traveling there.


----------



## Marineboy

phil.p":35k9euxc said:


> I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.



Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.


----------



## Chris152

Andy Kev.":d88brmi7 said:


> Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.


Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken? 
As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.


----------



## Droogs

I made it into my local Tesco yesterday, first of going out since surgery last week really and the amount of emptiness of the shelves did surprise me a bit. But the thing that has made me actually have a bit of a giggle all evening was the fact that, yes, nearly all the flour was gone from the shop apart from a few bags of Strong Flour (just what I was after). I really do wish I could be a fly on the wall of some millenials house as they try to make bread with self raising flour (hammer)


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":14ocn6ze said:


> Andy Kev.":14ocn6ze said:
> 
> 
> 
> Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken?
> As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.
Click to expand...


Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water. 

Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.

We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).


----------



## Marineboy

I don’t get this widespread aversion to experts, whether you call them academics or scientists. You wouldn’t get an elected politician to advise you on how to make a dovetailed drawer.


----------



## Chris152

RogerS":12dbf0fu said:


> Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water.
> 
> Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.
> 
> We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).


Can't be bothered communicating with you, Roger. Sorry.


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":1vzzgm2o said:


> RogerS":1vzzgm2o said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not at all. We always get this from bloody academics. Firstly they are not in charge. They aren't the ones that the country elected to govern them. So they are just muddying the water.
> 
> Secondly, comparisons with Italy and Spain etc (they did it this way...so why don't we) is simplistic and ignores the social mores of the country compared to us. It ignores, for example, the fact that their attitude towards law enforcement is significantly different to ours. Don't forget that Spain was under a dictatorship for a very long time and that sort of thing sinks deeply into the national psyche.
> 
> We are just as likely to give two-fingers (unless you're a Goodie-Two-Shoes).
> 
> 
> 
> Can't be bothered communicating with you, Roger. Sorry.
Click to expand...


But you just did.


----------



## Andy Kev.

ScaredyCat":1ojpylee said:


> Andy Kev.":1ojpylee said:
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently, people are scared of picking up the bug when they go to the bakery. I don't get that because you see them bringing out the trays of hot rolls which are tipped into the baskets/under the counter glass. Then the ladies at the counter put on gloves to pop them in paper bags, so they never get handled
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Places like Morrisons/Sainsbury's allow you to 'pick and mix' from open containers.
> 
> Even if there were no virus, I'd never use them but some people might just consider it safer. When I make bread, typically it's got 500g of flour in it and the results are eaten within a day. 10 bags of flour doesn't sound a lot if you're not going back to a supermarket any time soon.
> 
> .
Click to expand...


I live in Germany where the situation, even in the supermarkets, is different. The bread is only handled by the staff and they either use tongs or, as in my local bakery this morning, wear disposable gloves. It's probably about as safe as you can reasonably get.

There is one exception: a chain where you go around the displays picking items as you go and pay at the till. I imagine that their business is suffering a bit.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":2mde2goh said:


> Andy Kev.":2mde2goh said:
> 
> 
> 
> Time will tell if the govt's course of action is optimal or not. The important thing is to get behind it as by definition it is the only course of action we have.
> 
> 
> 
> Well, that saves a lot of thinking, doesn't it? And if tens of thousands more people die than would have been necessary had we taken a different course, that's just the way it is - ours (and the scientific community at large) not to reason why, or to try to change the course being currently taken?
> As for your conversion of 'scientists' to 'academics' and the suggestion of political intent, that might have more to do with your priorities/ hang-ups than theirs.
Click to expand...

I'm not suggesting that people stop thinking or debating. It is however, a fact that this is a very rapidly spreading virus and therefore one course of action needs (needed) to be extremely quickly selected and implemented. Given that there is a fair range of options, the govt. acting on the advice of its scientific advisors, could do no more than weigh up the options and choose one.

The signatories of that letter are aware of the time constraints (I can't believe they are not aware) and know that their intervention is largely theoretical. I chose the term "academics" because of the example I went on to give. In any event, no scientist would deny that he/she is a kind of academic. If the word has become tainted, it is because of the activities of the clowns principally involved in the humanities and arts.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

For anyone who has bought more flour than they know what to do with, bear in mind that it will contain moth and weevil larvae. This is virtually guaranteed. Put the bags in the freezer for a few days, so you don't lose your soft furnishings in three months time. Once out of the freezer, store in a sealed box or sealed bags. Same for rice, and probably beans, if you have gone full prepper (but not tins of Heinz beans, obviously).

Greece has gone full retard over the weekend: https://realgreekexperiences.com/greece ... _wC6fsMVHc



> The following institutions in Greece will remain closed from 14 March to 27 March:
> 
> 1. Restaurants, catering businesses, bars, nightclubs, coffeeplaces, cafes, cafeterias, kafeneia and similar establishments. Businesses that offer delivery and take-away services are exempted. Similarly, bars, restaurants and cafes located in hotels, are allowed to serve their customers who are staying there, as long as they take measures to avoid overcrowding.
> 2. Theatres, cinemas and similar businesses where performances are held.
> 
> 3. All libraries in the country, public or private.
> 
> 4. Museums, historical and archaeological sites and buildings, and similar visitor attractions.
> 
> 5. Private gambling businesses (casinos, card clubs, lottery businesses). People selling lottery tickets on the street are exempted, as are online gambling websites.
> 
> 6. Gyms and similar facilities. Athletes preparing for the Olympic Games are exempted.
> 
> 7. Fun fairs, flea markets and commercial exhibitions. Outdoors recreational spaces and public exercise spaces will remain open.
> 
> 8. Amusement arcades and any other space offering similar entairtainment.
> 
> 9. Hair salons, barbers, beauty salons, and similar places, such as massage studios.
> 
> 10. Tattoo and piercing studios.
> 
> 11. Personal escort services.
> 
> 12. Shopping malls, large outlets, shops operating with a “shop-in-a-shop” policy.
> 
> Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public.
> 
> At all points of service, every measure will be taken so that the maximum number of people in a queue is 5.



I particularly like"Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public." They have also closed hotels - tourism is 30% of GDP. What could possibly go wrong?

[youtube]oAKG-kbKeIo[/youtube]


----------



## Andy Kev.

Marineboy":34xoj1zv said:


> phil.p":34xoj1zv said:
> 
> 
> 
> I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.
Click to expand...

I suppose I could challenge you to prove the assertion in your last sentence and I also suppose that you wouldn't be able to.

You do not know in which country and indeed on which continent a vaccine will be first developed. Scientific knowledge is promulgated on paper these days or even more quickly on this internet thingy. The point about scientific knowledge is that it can be replicated. I suggest that a far more likely scenario is that once the method of producing a vaccine has been made known, its manufacture will be taken up in any country which is technically capable thereof.

You're indulging in the kind of politicisation of a technical issue which I alluded to in other posts. You also seem to be doing it from a position of little knowledge of biological sciences. (BTW, I'm no expert but I do have a degree in Biology.)


----------



## Cheshirechappie

I wonder whether there's a regional element to the panic buying? 

Bog rolls and flour everywhere, it seems, but other essentials specific to certain places. For example, quinoa and truffle oil in Islington, pies in Wigan, Mars Bars and lard in Glasgow, that sort of thing.

Might ask my old mum if she still has any ration books left over from the last war. They might come in handy soon. I did ask her to look out her old gas mask for when she does her shopping, but for some inexplicable reason, she seems to have mislaid it.

PS - Letter seem in the Daily Telegraph some time last week reported the sighting of a sign plastered in the window of an independent butcher somewhere in Surrey, "Panic buyers welcome here".


----------



## Marineboy

Andy Kev.":1ko9mtfi said:


> Marineboy":1ko9mtfi said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> phil.p":1ko9mtfi said:
> 
> 
> 
> I feel rather sorry for Boris and co. - damned if they do, damned if they don't.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Really? Quite apart from the fact that most experts (including the previous chief medical officer) disagree with the government approach, his and his party’s blind doctrinal approach to Brexit means that we have left those EU bodies which coordinate research into a vaccine and its subsequent procurement. Which means that we’ll get it after the rest of Europe and at a higher cost.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I suppose I could challenge you to prove the assertion in your last sentence and I also suppose that you wouldn't be able to.
> 
> You do not know in which country and indeed on which continent a vaccine will be first developed. Scientific knowledge is promulgated on paper these days or even more quickly on this internet thingy. The point about scientific knowledge is that it can be replicated. I suggest that a far more likely scenario is that once the method of producing a vaccine has been made known, its manufacture will be taken up in any country which is technically capable thereof.
> 
> You're indulging in the kind of politicisation of a technical issue which I alluded to in other posts. You also seem to be doing it from a position of little knowledge of biological sciences. (BTW, I'm no expert but I do have a degree in Biology.)
Click to expand...


Article in the Guardian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... SApp_Other

No, I am no expert in biology, hence why I listen to experts, which by your own admission you are not. And politics of whatever complexion dictates our response to any crisis, so it is highly relevant.


----------



## Andy Kev.

And of course the Guardian has no political bias whatsoever, does it?

Corona is a matter of virology and the practical response to it. The Guardian article is an attempt to colour the debate politically.

Science, ethically carried out, is utterly honest. Politics is never that. The only question is the extent of the dishonesty in any particular political stance. As it happens the realities of virology mean that we don't have much time to waste indulging in the low arts of politics, although I suppose that it does give the hopelessly ill-informed something to do.


----------



## RogerS

TN...don't these two contradict each other ? 

Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public.

At all points of service, every measure will be taken so that the maximum number of people in a queue is 5.


----------



## RogerS

Seen on another forum...

I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing. 

Nary a truer word on all counts.


----------



## Marineboy

Andy Kev.":bfoa08io said:


> And of course the Guardian has no political bias whatsoever, does it?
> 
> Corona is a matter of virology and the practical response to it. The Guardian article is an attempt to colour the debate politically.
> 
> Science, ethically carried out, is utterly honest. Politics is never that. The only question is the extent of the dishonesty in any particular political stance. As it happens the realities of virology mean that we don't have much time to waste indulging in the low arts of politics, although I suppose that it does give the hopelessly ill-informed something to do.



I guess you’re saying I’m ill-informed. So be it. And of course everything in the Guardian is wrong because it’s left leaning, so people can chose to ignore inconvenient truths. 

Politics determines how ethically carried out science is applied. Eg Trump’s denial of climate change. And the politics of Brexit means that we are less prepared than we would be to deal with the virus. The article makes it clear that this is not an opinion, but fact.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Covid 19 is a new threat and we have no recent experience of how to deal with it. The last on this scale was probably Spanish Flu 100 years ago. So much has changed we essentially have no experience as to how to deal with a global threat - SARS, AIDS, Ebola etc had very different characteristics.

That there seem to be a number of entirely plausible possible solutions to its management and ultimate eradication is no surprise. Scientists are also political animals - their funding usually relies upon government, their careers depend upon keeping their political masters happy. The conclusions reached by individual scientists will be impacted by assumptions about how the virus is spread - there are still a lot of unknowns. Or personal political views - eg: I don't trust the Tories/Boris, I didn't like Brexit.

If the policy adopted proves wrong, you can then clearly demonstrate (with the benefit of hindsight) that you were right all along. If the policy adopted proves correct, anything you said can be quietly forgotten. 

These are not necessarily deliberate ploys for advancement and funding - just embedded behaviour patterns. Apologies to individual scientists who I am sure believe their conclusions are based upon a thorough analysis of the available data and science applied objectively to the problem they are trying to solve.


----------



## cookiemonster

RogerS":hov8pxf4 said:


> Seen on another forum...
> 
> I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing.
> 
> Nary a truer word on all counts.



This approach raises an interesting moral question should the CMO prevail upon all those in high-risk groups to self-isolate.

Then again, millions have ignored the CMO's advice on fags and booze for generations without repercussions beyond their own health. And how many people has that killed?


----------



## RogerS

Marineboy":77mjaoi9 said:


> Andy Kev.":77mjaoi9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> And of course the Guardian has no political bias whatsoever, does it?
> 
> Corona is a matter of virology and the practical response to it. The Guardian article is an attempt to colour the debate politically.
> 
> Science, ethically carried out, is utterly honest. Politics is never that. The only question is the extent of the dishonesty in any particular political stance. As it happens the realities of virology mean that we don't have much time to waste indulging in the low arts of politics, although I suppose that it does give the hopelessly ill-informed something to do.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess you’re saying I’m ill-informed. So be it. And of course everything in the Guardian is wrong because it’s left leaning, so people can chose to ignore inconvenient truths.
> 
> Politics determines how ethically carried out science is applied. Eg Trump’s denial of climate change. And the politics of Brexit means that we are less prepared than we would be to deal with the virus. The article makes it clear that this is not an opinion, but fact.
Click to expand...


Pity you didn't research a little bit inmore detail the agenda and qualifications of the three 'experts' in that Guardian article.

Martin Mckee - the only 'medic/scientist' as such and has many, many anti-Brexit articles to his name. So no bias there then.

The other two are lawyers...carefully chosen, no doubt, to provide that 'balanced viewpoint' that the Guardian is renowned for.


----------



## RogerS

cookiemonster":3lmiefjm said:


> RogerS":3lmiefjm said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seen on another forum...
> 
> I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing.
> 
> Nary a truer word on all counts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This approach raises an interesting moral question should the CMO prevail upon all those in high-risk groups to self-isolate.
> 
> Then again, millions have ignored the CMO's advice on fags and booze for generations without repercussions beyond their own health. And how many people has that killed?
Click to expand...


But it was their choice.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Marineboy":166ddu12 said:


> I guess you’re saying I’m ill-informed. So be it. And of course everything in the Guardian is wrong because it’s left leaning, so people can chose to ignore inconvenient truths.
> 
> Politics determines how ethically carried out science is applied. Eg Trump’s denial of climate change. And the politics of Brexit means that we are less prepared than we would be to deal with the virus. The article makes it clear that this is not an opinion, but fact.


I don't know if you're ill-informed or not.

However, if you do know little of virology, the last thing you want to be doing is developing your opinions on the basis of politically flavoured articles. RogerS has just done us all a favour by completely pulling the rug out from under the credibility of the blokes who wrote the article you cited. It's a bit of amusing but hackneyed polemic but only tangentially of any scientific worth.

The best thing you can do is read articles by virologists who explain how this virus works. In principle it works in the cells of the body as other viruses do but there are two factors: humans have no previous exposure to it and it spreads fast. It also has significantly unpleasant but not horrific death rates.

The biggest thing is the ticking clock. The govt. has realistically only got one shot at this. The govt. has scientific advisors and they take the lead in determining what that shot is. To try to make political capital out of this - as in the Guardian article - is pretty pathetic. Mind you, the Guardian has long since i.e. pre-Brexit, gone beyond self-parody. I can only think of two of its journalists who IMO are worth reading. The rest are just extremists and loons.


----------



## Cordy

You can tell the Germans are now taking the corovirus seriously.


They have started putting their towels on hospital beds


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":13442fnv said:


> ..... The govt. has scientific advisors and they take the lead in determining what that shot is. ...



But they're wrong. Chris152 says that they are.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Cordy":qqrhla4j said:


> You can tell the Germans are now taking the corovirus seriously.
> 
> 
> They have started putting their towels on hospital beds



Any reports of the panic buying of sauerkraut and bratwurst yet?


----------



## Andy Kev.

For the radicals among you who think that maybe the biology of all this might be of relevance, have a butcher's at this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KXHwhTghWI

It's as good an overview as any as to how viruses work.


----------



## AES

The average German (and Swiss) has already got a barrel of sauerkraut stashed in his/her cellar.


----------



## cookiemonster

RogerS":3472l84b said:


> cookiemonster":3472l84b said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":3472l84b said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seen on another forum...
> 
> I've recently started on my 4th quarter century. If somebody queries my presence on a bus, in a shop or the library or at an uncancelled social event, I shall tell them that I'm 28 but I worry a lot. I shall of course stay in and seek advice should I become unwell, but I'm not prepared to be treated like a leper simply because of my date of birth. As they used to say on 'Monty Python', this is all getting VERY silly. Yesterday some scientist said that, if we're not happy with the government's approach, we should make up our own minds - which is what I'm doing.
> 
> Nary a truer word on all counts.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> This approach raises an interesting moral question should the CMO prevail upon all those in high-risk groups to self-isolate.
> 
> Then again, millions have ignored the CMO's advice on fags and booze for generations without repercussions beyond their own health. And how many people has that killed?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> But it was their choice.
Click to expand...


Exactly. And what if those in high-risks groups choose to ignore any CMO advice to self-isolate? The NHS has just about managed to cope with diseases caused by smoking and drinking down the years, but could be overwhelmed (i.e. not be able to treat everyone affected) by this current crisis.


----------



## RogerS

cookiemonster":hcz89nmj said:


> RogerS":hcz89nmj said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> cookiemonster":hcz89nmj said:
> 
> 
> 
> This approach raises an interesting moral question should the CMO prevail upon all those in high-risk groups to self-isolate.
> 
> Then again, millions have ignored the CMO's advice on fags and booze for generations without repercussions beyond their own health. And how many people has that killed?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> But it was their choice.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Exactly. And what if those in high-risks groups choose to ignore any CMO advice to self-isolate? The NHS has just about managed to cope with diseases caused by smoking and drinking down the years, but could be overwhelmed (i.e. not be able to treat everyone affected) by this current crisis.
Click to expand...


But that is exactly it. Define 'high-risk'. Being defined that by your birth date is nonsensical. All (or many of) those who died happened to be over 70. More importantly they had underlying health issues. You know if you have or haven't got those.


----------



## cookiemonster

[/quote]

But that is exactly it. Define 'high-risk'. Being defined that by your birth date is nonsensical. All (or many of) those who died happened to be over 70. More importantly they had underlying health issues. You know if you have or haven't got those.[/quote]

Is there a relationship between age and mortality rates, or is it just that older folks are more likely than younger ones to have underlying health conditions? I don't know what the evidence says, but presumably the government will take the evidence into account in whatever proclamation is made (if one is made).

In any case doctors are obliged to make treatment decisions on medical grounds alone, so my question is moot.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":3t8semwn said:


> TN...don't these two contradict each other ?
> 
> Any of these businesses are allowed to operate without the presence of public.
> 
> At all points of service, every measure will be taken so that the maximum number of people in a queue is 5.



Yup. It's from a government. 

I still like the idea of tattoos by post, and how do you do private escort services without customer involvement? I suppose that's why we have web cams, but tattoos tend to be a "while you wait" proposition.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Marineboy":2m0gqwqe said:


> I don’t get this widespread aversion to experts, whether you call them academics or scientists. You wouldn’t get an elected politician to advise you on how to make a dovetailed drawer.



Everybody knows that Cummings' behavioural scientist knows much more about viruses than any virologist. /s

.


----------



## RogerS

Trainee neophyte":30keii6r said:


> ....
> I still like the idea of tattoos by post, and how do you do private escort services without customer involvement?....



Ah, well...that's where AES's bratwurst comes in :wink:


----------



## RogerS

ScaredyCat":qr5ppsvp said:


> Marineboy":qr5ppsvp said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don’t get this widespread aversion to experts, whether you call them academics or scientists. You wouldn’t get an elected politician to advise you on how to make a dovetailed drawer.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Everybody knows that Cummings' behavioural scientist knows much more about viruses than any virologist. /s
> 
> .
Click to expand...


I wouldn't expect them to. It's not their area of expertise.


----------



## AES

Yeah, but NOT mixed with sauerkraut please ;-)


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Trainee neophyte":mpqe7xbt said:


> For anyone who has bought more flour than they know what to do with, bear in mind that it will contain moth and weevil larvae ...



We don't all live in Greece.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":3jdbhnfk said:


> Trainee neophyte":3jdbhnfk said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....
> I still like the idea of tattoos by post, and how do you do private escort services without customer involvement?....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ah, well...that's where AES's bratwurst comes in :wink:
Click to expand...


I'm sorry, but I don't understand. Could you explain, please?


----------



## AES

No.


----------



## MusicMan

Andy Kev.":286x97b8 said:


> You do not know in which country and indeed on which continent a vaccine will be first developed. Scientific knowledge is promulgated on paper these days or even more quickly on this internet thingy. The point about scientific knowledge is that it can be replicated. I suggest that a far more likely scenario is that once the method of producing a vaccine has been made known, its manufacture will be taken up in any country which is technically capable thereof.


AndyKev is quite right in what he says above. I am a very senior, though retired, scientist/bloodyacademic/bloodypubliccompanyCTO. I'm still active in various national scientific committees and know some of the people involved. One of them, an Oxford professor who is part of the team working on coronavirus, tells me that international cooperation on this problem is fantastic. The Chinese scientists were open about their discoveries from the very start, its structural biology was shared globally as soon as it was determined, hundreds of thousands of existing approved drugs have been 'trialled' by computer modelling against the virus structure and everyone knows the results (possible antiviral drugs have been identified, and are now being tested like mad) with results shared on vaccine development too. Of course every scientist and every company would like to be first, but that is not stopping the sharing of information and ideas. And I don't get the impression that it is resource limited.

It's basically up to the politicians to keep as many of us as possible alive until this kicks in, taking the best scientific advice that they can. And much though I loathe BoJo&Co, it does look as though this is what they are doing. The isolation of elderly and otherwise vulnerable people for several months until the peak has passed (which is when herd immunity has kicked in) makes very good sense to me and I intend to follow this advice whether it becomes law or not.

There are a number of very good articles and videos on the website of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine for anyone wishing to study this further. I suspect that the epidemiologists in the UK are actually about the best that are around. A legacy of the days of the Empire; they have been combatting epidemics longer and in more countries than anyone.


----------



## Marineboy

RogerS":3v5v5ld5 said:


> Marineboy":3v5v5ld5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":3v5v5ld5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> And of course the Guardian has no political bias whatsoever, does it?
> 
> Corona is a matter of virology and the practical response to it. The Guardian article is an attempt to colour the debate politically.
> 
> Science, ethically carried out, is utterly honest. Politics is never that. The only question is the extent of the dishonesty in any particular political stance. As it happens the realities of virology mean that we don't have much time to waste indulging in the low arts of politics, although I suppose that it does give the hopelessly ill-informed something to do.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I guess you’re saying I’m ill-informed. So be it. And of course everything in the Guardian is wrong because it’s left leaning, so people can chose to ignore inconvenient truths.
> 
> Politics determines how ethically carried out science is applied. Eg Trump’s denial of climate change. And the politics of Brexit means that we are less prepared than we would be to deal with the virus. The article makes it clear that this is not an opinion, but fact.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Pity you didn't research a little bit inmore detail the agenda and qualifications of the three 'experts' in that Guardian article.
> 
> Martin Mckee - the only 'medic/scientist' as such and has many, many anti-Brexit articles to his name. So no bias there then.
> 
> The other two are lawyers...carefully chosen, no doubt, to provide that 'balanced viewpoint' that the Guardian is renowned for.
Click to expand...


The only ‘medic/scientist as such’ is a professor and so better qualified than me and, I suspect, you. The legal perspective is relevant because the whole EMA thing is about the framework which used to facilitate our access to medicines and now doesn’t. 

However, pretty pointless to continue this exchange. It all depends on your particular weltanschauung.


----------



## RogerS

Marineboy":15fkuxmz said:


> RogerS":15fkuxmz said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Marineboy":15fkuxmz said:
> 
> 
> 
> I guess you’re saying I’m ill-informed. So be it. And of course everything in the Guardian is wrong because it’s left leaning, so people can chose to ignore inconvenient truths.
> 
> Politics determines how ethically carried out science is applied. Eg Trump’s denial of climate change. And the politics of Brexit means that we are less prepared than we would be to deal with the virus. The article makes it clear that this is not an opinion, but fact.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Pity you didn't research a little bit inmore detail the agenda and qualifications of the three 'experts' in that Guardian article.
> 
> Martin Mckee - the only 'medic/scientist' as such and has many, many anti-Brexit articles to his name. So no bias there then.
> 
> The other two are lawyers...carefully chosen, no doubt, to provide that 'balanced viewpoint' that the Guardian is renowned for.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> The only ‘medic/scientist as such’ is a professor and so better qualified than me and, I suspect, you. The legal perspective is relevant because the whole EMA thing is about the framework which used to facilitate our access to medicines and now doesn’t.
> 
> However, pretty pointless to continue this exchange. It all depends on your particular weltanschauung.
Click to expand...


I cast no aspersions about his qualifications but where he was coming from within the Brexit context. So that will colour his judgement...like it or not. Ditto the lawyers. Do you really think that the Guardian would use Nigel Farage as their contributor on Brexit ? They will choose those contributors whose bratwurst aligns with the theirs.


----------



## That would work

And there was me thinking that all this would divert us from Brexit! 
=D>


----------



## That would work

Anyway, being serious for a moment... a trip to Aldi and then Asda hoping to stock up on chickpeas and got ONE can from Aldi 
Plenty of wholemeal basmatti though. Looks like I'll be using that pile of newspapers :lol:


----------



## lurker

The benefit of all this panic buying for the lurker household is we might destock our shelves.
For example, the comment from TWW reminds me we have two tins of chick peas that are at least two years old.


----------



## Doug B

Life with a corona virus fatalist :lol: 

For the present Mrs B panic buying is now so last week which is fortunate as we don’t have a cupboard or closet that you could squeeze a single baked bean in let alone a whole tin, :? she’s also moved through cataloging all are financial records, bank accounts etc that will make up our estates after our inevitable deaths so the children can have as smooth a transition as possible.

This mornings breakfast conversation, including note pad, moved on to covering funeral plans & any special requests :shock: I can honestly say I’ve never felt so prepared & organised for anything just a shame it depends on me drawing my final breath  

When I finally thought there’s was nothing else to sort she dropped the bombshell, did I not think it would be a good idea to catalogue all the tools & machinery in my workshop :shock: :shock: 
This took a while to sink in, yes the children have no interest or idea of the worth of the shops contents & yes it would be a good idea to have a list of everything & yes there are possibly tools I might have forgotten about, but really catalogue all of it.

Then a glimmer of light, who needs self isolation by the time I’ve finished all that cataloging we’ll be onto our next global catastrophe always a silver lining.

Pass me another corona ccasion5:


----------



## MusicMan

So now you have an excuse to spend all your time in the workshop. 
"Just getting on with the cataloguing, dear". 
- "why are you making things then?"
"Oh I do have to check that this tool is working properly or I might just as well scrap it".

I think a lot of us oldies will be doing a lot of "cataloguing" in the coming months!


----------



## AES

Because I'm in much the same age group I've been saying "I MUST catalogue the shop" for at least a couple of years now. "Finished it yet?" "Nah, not even started properly"  

And doubt I will have before the present catastrophe has been forgotten and we're half way into the next.

But it DOES make sense when you're "our age" though, especially when you have no one to leave it all to.

Ah well.


----------



## Lons

MusicMan":39uf4umd said:


> I think a lot of us oldies will be doing a lot of "cataloguing" in the coming months!


I've been doing it for the last 18 months. Or to be accurate I started it 18 months ago with the intention of photographing and valuing anything important. I did manage 1 page so far. :wink: Now where did I put it?


----------



## Rorschach

I'll be spending plenty of time in the workshop, my worry is no-one will be buying what I make as Iam in the luxury goods market. This year could be a tricky one.


----------



## RogerS

Doug B":2ll6a6l6 said:


> Life with a corona virus fatalist :lol:
> 
> For the present Mrs B panic buying is now so last week which is fortunate as we don’t have a cupboard or closet that you could squeeze a single baked bean in let alone a whole tin, :? she’s also moved through cataloging all are financial records, bank accounts etc that will make up our estates after our inevitable deaths so the children can have as smooth a transition as possible.
> 
> This mornings breakfast conversation, including note pad, moved on to covering funeral plans & any special requests :shock: I can honestly say I’ve never felt so prepared & organised for anything just a shame it depends on me drawing my final breath
> 
> When I finally thought there’s was nothing else to sort she dropped the bombshell, did I not think it would be a good idea to catalogue all the tools & machinery in my workshop :shock: :shock:
> This took a while to sink in, yes the children have no interest or idea of the worth of the shops contents & yes it would be a good idea to have a list of everything & yes there are possibly tools I might have forgotten about, but really catalogue all of it.
> 
> Then a glimmer of light, who needs self isolation by the time I’ve finished all that cataloging we’ll be onto our next global catastrophe always a silver lining.
> 
> Pass me another corona ccasion5:




I really hope you are joking ! :shock:


----------



## cookiemonster

Rorschach":1miue5nt said:


> I'll be spending plenty of time in the workshop, my worry is no-one will be buying what I make as Iam in the luxury goods market. This year could be a tricky one.



There must be an opportunity in here somewhere. Something like, if your customers have to spend months on end indoors in self-isolation then they will want to spend it in the company of some top quality furniture? Anyhow, the best of luck to you.


----------



## Chris152

Help me think this one through? It's back to the schools staying open question.

If 'Delay' really is the goal, why doesn't the govt explicitly give people the option to keep their kids home? Those kids staying home are less likely to get it, and those that continue going to school for whatever reason (parents in essential work/ NHS etc) are less crammed in, exposed to fewer people and therefore less likely to get it and take it home. The teachers would be less exposed, too.


----------



## thick_mike

Because they want the kids to get it. The delay part is for those groups that might require hospitalisation, young people get mild symptoms and they are relying on those that have had the virus being immune to reinfection. As a teacher, I’m on the front line of this as I will be surrounded by hundreds of viral fermentors. Many of my colleagues are in vulnerable groups, but will be exposed to the virus through contact with the students we teach.


----------



## Rorschach

cookiemonster":30j83yz3 said:


> Rorschach":30j83yz3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'll be spending plenty of time in the workshop, my worry is no-one will be buying what I make as Iam in the luxury goods market. This year could be a tricky one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There must be an opportunity in here somewhere. Something like, if your customers have to spend months on end indoors in self-isolation then they will want to spend it in the company of some top quality furniture? Anyhow, the best of luck to you.
Click to expand...


Unfortunately most of my business is in the US and Asia. Both areas that do not have sick pay so a lot of people are going to be very short of money at least for this year. It could put me out of business.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":ydtms6mm said:


> cookiemonster":ydtms6mm said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":ydtms6mm said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'll be spending plenty of time in the workshop, my worry is no-one will be buying what I make as Iam in the luxury goods market. This year could be a tricky one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There must be an opportunity in here somewhere. Something like, if your customers have to spend months on end indoors in self-isolation then they will want to spend it in the company of some top quality furniture? Anyhow, the best of luck to you.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Unfortunately most of my business is in the US and Asia. Both areas that do not have sick pay so a lot of people are going to be very short of money at least for this year. It could put me out of business.
Click to expand...


Really sorry to hear that. Fingers crossed for you.


----------



## MusicMan

I did catalogue my big machines, with detailed description, prices paid, estimated values ... and a link to this forum if my son needs advice! Be kind to him!


----------



## RogerS

Cytokine Storm...apparently that's what can get us as a result of Covid-19 if we're susceptible. The older you are, that increases the likelihood.

From another forum

_It is still just a conjecture, but one hypothesis for which evidence is at least accumulating is that Cytokine Storm is associated with many bad outcomes. This (Cytokine Storm in response to COV-19) in turn appears well correlated with age, regardless of underlying health. Underlying health is then correlated with chances of withstanding this phenomenon. The inverse (unlikelihood of Cytokine Storm in response to COV-19 regardless of other factors except youth) is a possible explanation of the near-zero risk of bad outcomes in the youngest._


----------



## Cheshirechappie

thick_mike":2j81oz0u said:


> As a teacher, I’m on the front line of this as I will be surrounded by hundreds of viral fermentors.



Same as usual, then!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Listening to the news a few minutes ago, it seems that supermarkets have seen crowds gathering before opening times, and long queues at checkouts. I did my usual weekly shop yesterday morning, and it was busier than usual, with gaps on shelves.

Just like to say that I consider this panic buying to be rather pathetic and very selfish. The supermarkets have all said that there's no shortages of anything, but sudden high demand strains resupply systems beyond capacity. Hence the gaps on shelves, which can be refilled in a couple of days, provided everybody calms down. If we're not careful, we'll have rationing reintroduced to avoid the surges in demand. Some supermarkets are already limiting numbers of items per customer for some goods.

By the way, the Telegraph reported yesterday that the UK is a net exporter of bog rolls, so there's no actual shortage, and even if there was, we could just divert the exports to our own shelves. 

Just no need to panic at all, folks. Calm down, take a deep breath, and just shop normally.


----------



## Lons

This is an interesting website for anyone who hasn't seen it. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... lian-media
No idea if it's accurate but in any event makes for grim reading especially the mortality rate percentage in Italy compared with China. I know that's not realistic comparison at this stage!

So the over 70s have been told to self isolate. Wonder who's going to look after my granddaughter when they close the schools as my son can't manage too much time at home and his wife is a nurse!


----------



## stuartpaul

Cheshirechappie":2at41ms2 said:


> Listening to the news a few minutes ago, it seems that supermarkets have seen crowds gathering before opening times, and long queues at checkouts. I did my usual weekly shop yesterday morning, and it was busier than usual, with gaps on shelves.
> 
> Just like to say that I consider this panic buying to be rather pathetic and very selfish. The supermarkets have all said that there's no shortages of anything, but sudden high demand strains resupply systems beyond capacity. Hence the gaps on shelves, which can be refilled in a couple of days, provided everybody calms down. If we're not careful, we'll have rationing reintroduced to avoid the surges in demand. Some supermarkets are already limiting numbers of items per customer for some goods.
> 
> By the way, the Telegraph reported yesterday that the UK is a net exporter of bog rolls, so there's no actual shortage, and even if there was, we could just divert the exports to our own shelves.
> 
> Just no need to panic at all, folks. Calm down, take a deep breath, and just shop normally.


Sorry, but your missing the point entirely. With the buttocks falling out of many currencies the humble bog roll is about to become the major world currency. Only 100 sheet rolls are under consideration so a decimal approach can be maintained.

The big argument is going to be in relation to the ‘softness index’. Some arguing for a ‘hard’ currency (izal) others believe that stupid koala has a role to play.

How to choose........


----------



## Cheshirechappie

stuartpaul":14ykhndi said:


> Cheshirechappie":14ykhndi said:
> 
> 
> 
> Listening to the news a few minutes ago, it seems that supermarkets have seen crowds gathering before opening times, and long queues at checkouts. I did my usual weekly shop yesterday morning, and it was busier than usual, with gaps on shelves.
> 
> Just like to say that I consider this panic buying to be rather pathetic and very selfish. The supermarkets have all said that there's no shortages of anything, but sudden high demand strains resupply systems beyond capacity. Hence the gaps on shelves, which can be refilled in a couple of days, provided everybody calms down. If we're not careful, we'll have rationing reintroduced to avoid the surges in demand. Some supermarkets are already limiting numbers of items per customer for some goods.
> 
> By the way, the Telegraph reported yesterday that the UK is a net exporter of bog rolls, so there's no actual shortage, and even if there was, we could just divert the exports to our own shelves.
> 
> Just no need to panic at all, folks. Calm down, take a deep breath, and just shop normally.
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry, but your missing the point entirely. With the buttocks falling out of many currencies the humble bog roll is about to become the major world currency. Only 100 sheet rolls are under consideration so a decimal approach can be maintained.
> 
> The big argument is going to be in relation to the ‘softness index’. Some arguing for a ‘hard’ currency (izal) others believe that stupid koala has a role to play.
> 
> How to choose........
Click to expand...


Well, if the UK is a net exporter, we make all the currency we need, and presumably can charge a premium for our exports as well! Win-win ...


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Cheshirechappie":3bkh939k said:


> [
> 
> Well, if the UK is a net exporter, we make all the currency we need, and presumably can charge a premium for our exports as well! Win-win ...



There really is no difference between £ sterling and 2 ply, other than ability to biodegrade. Makes you think, doesn't it...


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Trainee neophyte":2bfz275x said:


> Cheshirechappie":2bfz275x said:
> 
> 
> 
> [
> 
> Well, if the UK is a net exporter, we make all the currency we need, and presumably can charge a premium for our exports as well! Win-win ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There really is no difference between £ sterling and 2 ply, other than ability to biodegrade. Makes you think, doesn't it...
Click to expand...

 
How many olive leaves to the UK backed Andrex sheet, then, TN? About 100 or so?


----------



## MusicMan

Lons":2yg9ehe0 said:


> This is an interesting website for anyone who hasn't seen it. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... lian-media
> No idea if it's accurate but in any event makes for grim reading especially the mortality rate percentage in Italy compared with China. I know that's not realistic comparison at this stage!
> 
> So the over 70s have been told to self isolate. Wonder who's going to look after my granddaughter when they close the schools as my son can't manage too much time at home and his wife is a nurse!



This is why premature closing of schools is a bad idea! It depends where the kids go, infecting a grandparent (high risk group) or locking down a highly needed adult (NHS staff). Your family gets a double whammy. However, I have seen mention that child care should be provided for NHS kids or where a high-risk adult would otherwise be the carer. 

Some people seem to think that closing a school just makes the kids disappear!


----------



## D_W

Rorschach":30pi4rfx said:


> cookiemonster":30pi4rfx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":30pi4rfx said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'll be spending plenty of time in the workshop, my worry is no-one will be buying what I make as Iam in the luxury goods market. This year could be a tricky one.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There must be an opportunity in here somewhere. Something like, if your customers have to spend months on end indoors in self-isolation then they will want to spend it in the company of some top quality furniture? Anyhow, the best of luck to you.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Unfortunately most of my business is in the US and Asia. Both areas that do not have sick pay so a lot of people are going to be very short of money at least for this year. It could put me out of business.
Click to expand...


It could be lean, but most of us in the US have sick pay. It's part of our total benefit packages. There are a lot of hourly folks who only get paid for the hours they work, but they're not likely to be in a custom group for international products (that don't come from china or india).


----------



## Chris152

thick_mike":1zrncnkw said:


> Because they want the kids to get it. The delay part is for those groups that might require hospitalisation, young people get mild symptoms and they are relying on those that have had the virus being immune to reinfection. As a teacher, I’m on the front line of this as I will be surrounded by hundreds of viral fermentors. Many of my colleagues are in vulnerable groups, but will be exposed to the virus through contact with the students we teach.


It all seems quite unclear to me. since herd immunity was mentioned a few days ago by the cmo, the govt has been denying that is its policy. It seems like something that's going to happen if immunity can develop anyway. Yet still, the only measures clearly directed to the public seem to be hand washing, using tissues and self-isolation f you're ill. Still no advice to avoid crowded bars, travel situations etc unless they're absolutely essential. Which would seem obvious things to call for if 'delay' is really the goal, I'd have thought? As for more extreme measures to delay spread in the uk, well apparently we know better...
Reduction in testing seems odd too, that leaves us pretty unclear as to what the actual situation in the UK is, doesn't it?


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":1gl5h9ff said:


> thick_mike":1gl5h9ff said:
> 
> 
> 
> Because they want the kids to get it. The delay part is for those groups that might require hospitalisation, young people get mild symptoms and they are relying on those that have had the virus being immune to reinfection. As a teacher, I’m on the front line of this as I will be surrounded by hundreds of viral fermentors. Many of my colleagues are in vulnerable groups, but will be exposed to the virus through contact with the students we teach.
> 
> 
> 
> It all seems quite unclear to me. since herd immunity was mentioned a few days ago by the cmo, the govt has been denying that is its policy. It seems like something that's going to happen if immunity can develop anyway. Yet still, the only measures clearly directed to the public seem to be hand washing, using tissues and self-isolation f you're ill. Still no advice to avoid crowded bars, travel situations etc unless they're absolutely essential. Which would seem obvious things to call for if 'delay' is really the goal, I'd have thought?
> As for reduction in testing, that leaves us pretty unclear as to what the actual situation in the UK is, doesn't it?
Click to expand...


I can't fault your reasoning.

We're planning how/when/if one of us catches it. Fortunately, LOML has her own en-suite so I can lock her in her bedroom if she catches it. Give her a laptop to watch TV or listen to the radio. I'll prepare her food and leave it outside the door. Either that or put on gloves, goggles (in case I touch my eyes) and a dust mask (ditto). Bring in the security camera from outside and stick it in her room so I can monitor her. Lie back and think of England.


----------



## RogerS

"The Law of Unexpected Consequences" aka "The Law of Expected Consequences if only the young muppets who design IT systems actually ask the question What If ...two words they've never heard of"

Trying to transfer money between Virgin accounts. Have to use this new "send a code" cobblers. Mobile signal having its usual off-day. No problem. Ask to use landline instead. "We're having problems". Apparently testing IT systems doesn't feature in their vocabulary either. "You have to go into a branch". Um...can't. Over-70. 

Have now decided to spread what few assets we have across multiple financial institutions. They cant all go pear-shaped at the same time ? Can they ?


----------



## Marineboy

The govt guarantee of protecting individual bank/savings accounts up to £85k will mean you’re ok even if they go belly up. 

Unless of course they renege on that due to ‘unforeseen circumstances’


----------



## RogerS

Marineboy":3mkrdjne said:


> The govt guarantee of protecting individual bank/savings accounts up to £85k will mean you’re ok even if they go belly up.
> 
> Unless of course they renege on that due to ‘unforeseen circumstances’



My bad... when I said 'Pear-shaped' I was referring to accessing their systems 

It's not the question of them going belly-up but being able to transfer money from A to B in order to pay bills, cards etc.


----------



## RogerS

I read in the papers that the Govt are thinking about asking Netflix to offer free-streaming to the over-70's if they are imprisoned for four months. Leaving aside the fact that I suspect quite a large percentage of this demographic don't even know what 'streaming' means outside the context of having a cold....

...a quick dip into what's available seems to be a never-ending stream of Zombie films. Does Netflix know something that we don't ?


----------



## Marineboy

RogerS":3voddgxl said:


> Marineboy":3voddgxl said:
> 
> 
> 
> The govt guarantee of protecting individual bank/savings accounts up to £85k will mean you’re ok even if they go belly up.
> 
> Unless of course they renege on that due to ‘unforeseen circumstances’
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My bad... when I said 'Pear-shaped' I was referring to accessing their systems
> 
> It's not the question of them going belly-up but being able to transfer money from A to B in order to pay bills, cards etc.
Click to expand...


Sorry, see what you mean now, some banks are better than others. I’m with Halifax and I find their online systems very efficient. Transfer of monies to other banks is near instantaneous.


----------



## squib

Lockdown:
Yes there is fear.
Yes there is isolation.
Yes there is panic buying.
Yes there is sickness.
Yes there is even death.

But,
They say that in Wuhan after so many years of noise
You can hear the birds again.
They say that after just a few weeks of quiet
The sky is no longer thick with fumes
But blue and grey and clear.
They say that in the streets of Assisi
People are singing to each other across the empty squares, keeping their windows open so that those who are alone may hear the sounds of family around them.
They say that a hotel in the West of Ireland
Is offering free meals and delivery to the housebound.
Today Churches, Synagogues, Mosques and Temples are preparing to welcome and shelter the homeless, the sick, the weary
All over the world people are slowing down and reflecting
All over the world people are looking at their neighbours in a new way
All over the world people are waking up to a new reality
To how big we really are.
To how little control we really have.
To what really matters.
So we are still and we remember that
Yes there is fear.
But there does not have to be hate.
Yes there is isolation.
But there does not have to be loneliness.
Yes there is panic buying.
But there does not have to be meanness.
Yes there is sickness.
But there does not have to be disease of the soul
Wake to the choices you make as to how to live now.
Today, breathe.
Listen, behind the factory noises of your panic
The birds are singing again
The sky is clearing,
Spring is coming,
Open the windows of your soul
And though you may not be able to touch across the empty square,
Sing.

March 14th 2020


----------



## Lons

RogerS":2tgaj6ka said:


> We're planning how/when/if one of us catches it. Fortunately, LOML has her own en-suite so I can lock her in her bedroom if she catches it. Give her a laptop to watch TV or listen to the radio. I'll prepare her food and leave it outside the door. Either that or put on gloves, goggles (in case I touch my eyes) and a dust mask (ditto). Bring in the security camera from outside and stick it in her room so I can monitor her. Lie back and think of England.



If I were you I'd be more worried about her plans if you catch it first Roger. Your' insurance policies and will haven't appeared on a table recently have they. :wink: :lol:


----------



## Droogs

Well time to start being a bit more concerned for our household. Missus just txtd, she's a supply teacher in Edinburgh and if the schools close, her union just told her that edinburgh council will not pay any wages of any sort to supply teachers though normal teachers will get pay. So we are stuffed as I haven't been able to work properly for the last 4 months as currently getting cancer treatment and my earnings plan has been scuppered by the virus as taxis are being decimated by having no passengers. So off to the CAB tomorrow hopefully


----------



## RogerS

Sorry to hear that, Droogs. Can't the union put pressure on the Govt to sort that out ? They seem to be helping in all sorts of other areas. Hope things pan out for you. You're not alone though....my mate sent me this email

_I have companies (customers) who suddenly have no work (everything cancelled) and they are tearing hair out working out what to do about their staff. They also owe me money, so say goodbye to that.
Tough times_

And more scarily (I've emailed him to ask if he is joking) my doctor chum when asked by another friend what his medical advice was, he replied "Do what I've done and put a long crowbar in the boot. It's the people that are the problem...not the virus". He's a psychiatrist.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Cheshirechappie":3kw1qpug said:


> Trainee neophyte":3kw1qpug said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Cheshirechappie":3kw1qpug said:
> 
> 
> 
> [
> 
> Well, if the UK is a net exporter, we make all the currency we need, and presumably can charge a premium for our exports as well! Win-win ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There really is no difference between £ sterling and 2 ply, other than ability to biodegrade. Makes you think, doesn't it...
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> How many olive leaves to the UK backed Andrex sheet, then, TN? About 100 or so?
Click to expand...


A few years ago someone decided an olive-leaf smoothie was the new superfood healthnut thing to drink, so there was an actual market for them. However the leaves aren't normally worth as much as the olives and their oil. 800 calories per 100g, and I can even use it instead of diesel if I have to. Money really does grow on trees for some people. But what is the intrinsic value of the £, other than the government's ability to tax it's slaves?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":5a6ywonv said:


> "
> ...
> Have now decided to spread what few assets we have across multiple financial institutions. They cant all go pear-shaped at the same time ? Can they ?



Capital controls will have you wondering what happened - limited withdrawals, limited access, anything over a certain amount confiscated. Have a look at Greece and Cyprus for more info. 

I did mention the other day that a sealed jar of cash buried in the back garden wouldn't be a completely stupid thing to do - you need to have the cash before the system falls over, not afterwards. Of course everyone will call you paranoid and crazy, until the capital controls kick in. Oh, and maybe leave a map for the grandkids, just in case...

Think about where Italy is economically right now, and then remind yourself that the Italian banks are the most precarious, and the Italian government the most like Greece of all the EU countries. Financial crisis 2.0? Couldn't possibly happen!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital ... _in_Greece


> As a result, the Greek government was forced to immediately close Greek banks for almost 20 days and to implement controls on bank transfers from Greek banks to foreign banks, and limits on cash withdrawals (only €60 per day permitted), to avoid an uncontrolled bank run and a complete collapse of the Greek banking system.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewi ... e0dc4c2685


----------



## AES

My thoughts go out to those on here who are actually affected right now (or very soon will be) - rather than the "theoretical prophets of doom & gloom".

I really do not know what the final answers to all this will be, (any more than anyone else does really, it's all - at best - educated guess work as far as I can tell - and in some cases, not so educated either!). 

But I suspect it will get worse before it gets better. Whether or not closing schools (just an example) is "right" or "wrong", who knows really? I honestly don't think anyone knows really, AND we won't know either, until after it's all over and we all compare relative results.

All I CAN say is that here, (a little country of just under 8M people, divided into 26 largely self-governing Kantons), our Kanton, one of just 3 out of the 26, has closed all schools, restaurants, "pubs", shops except food & medicines, etc, etc, whereas neighbouring Kantons have not - at least not yet anyway.

So I would respectfully suggest that it's much better to simply accept that we've all "got a major situation" on our hands, and based on the consistent professional info that we have ALL been getting ("wash your hands, keep your distance, don't go out unless necessary, etc, etc) just act accordingly. As both my wife and I both belong to the high risk group (she more than me unfortunately), that's what we're doing - and it's ALL that we're doing BTW.

The press, TV, and all the other "paid idiots" are having a field day, just as they always do when "something happens".

And the "be sensible" approach is to me much preferable to all sorts of posts saying "this doesn't make sense to me; that doesn't make sense to me; look what THEY'RE doing", blah, blah, blah, that have been appearing here for several days now (and, to be fair, in many other places too). IMO you're only feeding the "journo trolls" and NOT helping anything one little bit.

Oh and yeah - as said at the start, lets all at least start (metaphorically) crossing our fingers for all those on here whose livelihoods have been or are about to be seriously affected, rather than this, IMO anyway, senseless speculation based on NO hard info whatsoever.

With respect to ALL Forum members.


----------



## Andy Kev.

It's depressing that the sense of proportion about this disease is being lost.

The so-called "rout" that is happening on the stock markets seems to me to be an example of contemptible panic but then again that's always the way those people react to things.

It's going to be difficult and for some people fatal but it is not a mega-disease that is going to have anything like the effects of e.g. the black death in medaeval times.

A cure will be found for it and it will pass. In the meantime the idea of limiting social contact/activity is a sensible one and it is only because that idea is so unusual that a febrile atmosphere is being created. The press are of course right to report it but they want to watch their tone because of the way they can shape the mood the public, especially the end of the public not normally given to thinking. Secondly, the sheer amount and omnipresence of reporting needs IMO to be reduced for the common good.

In the meantime, enforced idleness will present a great opportunity to read books we've never got round to.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

This is an article about the media, and media commentary, by someone who (briefly) worked in that field. It's quite sobering - and not at all complimentary. The old maxim of "never believe everything you read in the papers" could perhaps now be rehashed to say, "You're a damned fool if you believe almost anything in much of the media". It very much upholds a feeling I've had for some time, which is that most of the media is rotten, and social media is even worse (Twitter, in particular, is just a sewer when it comes to anything related to politics).

Timely, given the nature of the current crisis, and the need for the accurate dissemination of information and official advice. Well worth a read, I reckon.

https://unherd.com/2020/03/we-dont-dese ... dia-class/


----------



## MikeG.

Andy Kev.":31cdzcy3 said:


> ........enforced idleness will present a great opportunity to read books we've never got round to.



Books? We've got workshops. We've got wood......


----------



## Trainee neophyte

AndyKev":3isgj3rj said:


> The so-called "rout" that is happening on the stock markets seems to me to be an example of contemptible panic but then again that's always the way those people react to things.



I think you will find that this market collapse has been a long time coming, and if it wasn't for central banks throwing free money at the system for years, the everything bubble wouldn't have been blown, so wouldn't now be deflating. This collapse was waiting for an excuse, and just happened to find a global trade-stopping virus, which will take all the blame for the last 10 years' idiocy. If you were conspiracy minded, you might even think it had been done on purpose, but that would be a step too far, probably.

In effect, they didn't fix the problems in 2008/9, so all growth since then has been fake, built on false assumptions. They're now going to throw EVEN MORE money at it, because that always fixes everything. If we are lucky, they will give free money to the general populace as opposed to their close and intimate billionaire chums, but either way it just means the system has failed, is currently in the process of falling apart, and will be replaced. USA has two aircraft carrier groups in the Middle East at the moment - can we expect one last big hurrah before debt implosion and chaos?

Please note that I really, really want to be wrong, and I want tomorrow to be the same as today, and next week to carry on as normal, and next year to be no worse than last year, and if we are very lucky, even a bit better. I just don't believe it is going to happen that way, and I am amazed it has lasted as long as this.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":1pb49w2z said:


> Andy Kev.":1pb49w2z said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........enforced idleness will present a great opportunity to read books we've never got round to.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Books? We've got workshops. We've got wood......
Click to expand...

I imagine I'll be standing at my bench with a book opened at the page of a desperately complex plan, following it line for line like somebody who's good at making beans on toast following a cooking recipe for lobster thermidor.

Actually, I was thinking more of the evenings, as telly is likely to be dismal. The days will no doubt be filled with the tzisch of freshly sharpened planes, the bangs of mallet on chisels and the curses which accompany glue ups.


----------



## MikeG.

I am seeing the thread title as "no". What on earth is that supposed to mean in the context of this forum and this thread?


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":2wjiv5in said:


> AndyKev":2wjiv5in said:
> 
> 
> 
> The so-called "rout" that is happening on the stock markets seems to me to be an example of contemptible panic but then again that's always the way those people react to things.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think you will find that this market collapse has been a long time coming, and if it wasn't for central banks throwing free money at the system for years, the everything bubble wouldn't have been blown, so wouldn't now be deflating. This collapse was waiting for an excuse, and just happened to find a global trade-stopping virus, which will take all the blame for the last 10 years' idiocy. If you were conspiracy minded, you might even think it had been done on purpose, but that would be a step too far, probably.
> 
> In effect, they didn't fix the problems in 2008/9, so all growth since then has been fake, built on false assumptions. They're now going to throw EVEN MORE money at it, because that always fixes everything. If we are lucky, they will give free money to the general populace as opposed to their close and intimate billionaire chums, but either way it just means the system has failed, is currently in the process of falling apart, and will be replaced. USA has two aircraft carrier groups in the Middle East at the moment - can we expect one last big hurrah before debt implosion and chaos?
> 
> Please note that I really, really want to be wrong, and I want tomorrow to be the same as today, and next week to carry on as normal, and next year to be no worse than last year, and if we are very lucky, even a bit better. I just don't believe it is going to happen that way, and I am amazed it has lasted as long as this.
Click to expand...

A lot of people have been predicting the next crash given the lack of real change in financial systems. It's one reason that I've kept my modest savings in cash even though interest rates are so dismal. Maybe I should have bought a few ounces of gold.

I read an account of the last crash by a bloke called Adam Tooze in a bid to understand what went on. The book is imaginatively called _Crashed_. It's a bit of a door stopper and very thorough and it does provide some eye-opening insights. Now that could be one to read in the next few weeks.


----------



## Andy Kev.

As for the thread title, I wonder if the mods were thinking of binning it (I wonder even more as to what lies behind their olympian decisions) and one of them might have put a rejection to bin it in the wrong place while replying to another.


----------



## marcros

Is it not just accidentally changed by a user?


----------



## marcros

Yep, trainee by the look of it.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

marcros":1mxu05sh said:


> Yep, trainee by the look of it.



I dindo nuffin!


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Andy Kev.":13zpktzk said:


> Trainee neophyte":13zpktzk said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> AndyKev":13zpktzk said:
> 
> 
> 
> The so-called "rout" that is happening on the stock markets seems to me to be an example of contemptible panic but then again that's always the way those people react to things.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think you will find that this market collapse has been a long time coming, and if it wasn't for central banks throwing free money at the system for years, the everything bubble wouldn't have been blown, so wouldn't now be deflating. This collapse was waiting for an excuse, and just happened to find a global trade-stopping virus, which will take all the blame for the last 10 years' idiocy. If you were conspiracy minded, you might even think it had been done on purpose, but that would be a step too far, probably.
> 
> In effect, they didn't fix the problems in 2008/9, so all growth since then has been fake, built on false assumptions. They're now going to throw EVEN MORE money at it, because that always fixes everything. If we are lucky, they will give free money to the general populace as opposed to their close and intimate billionaire chums, but either way it just means the system has failed, is currently in the process of falling apart, and will be replaced. USA has two aircraft carrier groups in the Middle East at the moment - can we expect one last big hurrah before debt implosion and chaos?
> 
> Please note that I really, really want to be wrong, and I want tomorrow to be the same as today, and next week to carry on as normal, and next year to be no worse than last year, and if we are very lucky, even a bit better. I just don't believe it is going to happen that way, and I am amazed it has lasted as long as this.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> A lot of people have been predicting the next crash given the lack of real change in financial systems. It's one reason that I've kept my modest savings in cash even though interest rates are so dismal. Maybe I should have bought a few ounces of gold.
> 
> I read an account of the last crash by a bloke called Adam Tooze in a bid to understand what went on. The book is imaginatively called _Crashed_. It's a bit of a door stopper and very thorough and it does provide some eye-opening insights. Now that could be one to read in the next few weeks.
Click to expand...


After the crash, all the experts, and especially the economists, will appear on TV and tell us that these were unprecedented conditions, and it has never happened before, but most importantly, _ no-one could have seen it coming_.


----------



## RogerS

Well, listening to the Three Musketeers just now on the radio, they came across rather well, I thought. Sensibly proposed and none of the draconian "If you are Over-70 then you will stay at home for the next four months'. Usual media exaggeration which some of us, myself included  , fell for. 

No outright closure of bars, pubs etc. No need TBH because they will wither through lack of business.

The only thing I'm not now clear on and that is if we all avoid social contact as much as possible then how will herd immunity build-up ?


----------



## NickM

RogerS":3w4wn8nb said:


> The only thing I'm not now clear on and that is if we all avoid social contact as much as possible then how will herd immunity build-up ?



It will build up eventually, just more slowly which means the NHS can cope with the consequences and help those who really need it. That's the theory, which seems a sound one to me. Whether it can be achieved will depend on how good we all are at complying with the advice (which is more concerning I think...).


----------



## RogerS

Trainee neophyte":1xamdbyg said:


> I see the title to the thread has changed - has the plug been pulled again?
> 
> No?



No, the thread name can be changed as well by the OP ..thetyreman, in this case and who is being extremely childish.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

RogerS":3vl7fqbr said:


> Well, listening to the Three Musketeers just now on the radio, they came across rather well, I thought. Sensibly proposed and none of the draconian "If you are Over-70 then you will stay at home for the next four months'. Usual media exaggeration which some of us, myself included  , fell for.
> 
> No outright closure of bars, pubs etc. No need TBH because they will wither through lack of business.
> 
> The only thing I'm not now clear on and that is if we all avoid social contact as much as possible then how will herd immunity build-up ?



Yes - credit to the BBC for broadcasting the statement in full and (more or less) uninterrupted, so we know what those responsible said, and not some hack's second hand interpretation.

Does anybody know where the 'herd immunity' thing came from? Was it direct reporting of an official press briefing, or a story written on something 'an unnamed Whitehall source' is alleged to have said?

The economic consequences look likely to be severe. We can only hope that the measures announced today will not last too long, but even 12 weeks might well be too long for many. Very sobering.


----------



## MikeG.

Now it's "Cornvirus". =D> =D> :lol: :lol:


----------



## Bm101

Herd immunity is fine in the aftermath for survivors or those immunised.
In the bit in Braveheart where you got all them scraggly fellas with no military training and pitchforks against the heavy english cavalry you might want to be listening a bit less to the likes of ministers and Johnson. 

Because right now that's us.

Robert the Bruce and all them fellas on Horses at the back way put of long bow range. That's your politicians.

Remember that mad fella in Braveheart?_* I told you it was my island.*_ *mad gurning*
Ireland have just shut all bars and pubs for two weeks. 
Boris says _try not to mix too much._
Ireland stopped smoking in pubs two years before we got round to stopping people smoking in hospitals.
I'm a bit baffled by the uk tbh.
Take care people.


----------



## Chris152

That brought some lightness to my evening, Chris - much needed after the broadcast.

Hearing the broadcast clarified things for me - taking the kids out of school as of today, I can't see the point in me going about the place social distancing, washing and singing endlessly when they're in school coughing and spluttering over each other, sharing keyboards and (most insane of all under the circs) paying for the tray of food they're about to eat for lunch by pressing fingers on the print reader that pays for the meal. No doubt I'll be summoned for keeping them home, but there you go. 

Good to see things stepped up, even if it does all sounds a bit optional.


----------



## Bm101

Also.
Test people on cooking in shops.
Wtf madam. You want to buy 15kg of rice. Are you a keen rice eater?
Ohhh. Yes?
Ahhh and what's your normal procedure for producing a problem free fluffed light basmati?
I... I... boil it? For 25 minutes?

.*Presses Red Button. Yes no problem at all Madam please take the *left* hand door to leave the store.
*whispers into collar mike* Another live one for mincing... over.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Following the banking crisis 10 years ago there was some real clarity about what needed to change rapidly:

- separate retail from casino banking
- increasing bank reserves to make them more resilient to market problems
- proper stress testing of individual banks

Sadly I suspect that clarity has given way to compromise and political expediency so there must be a big risk of failure. On the plus side we know how to bail out the banks and then implement another decade of austerity to pay for it.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":3e8bol1y said:


> Now it's "Cornvirus". =D> =D> :lol: :lol:


An anagram of coronanvirus is carnivorous, just in case tyreman feels like a change.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Everyone is very down on people buying too much food, but if you are told to self-isolate for 14 weeks, how much food should you buy? Or should you self isolate, except when you go out?

Confused, Milton Keynes


----------



## MikeG.

You don't have to buy 14 weeks worth of food in one go (I think it was twelve, wasn't it?). You can still get deliveries. You can ask for people to shop for you.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":2rdjzn89 said:


> You don't have to buy 14 weeks worth of food in one go (I think it was twelve, wasn't it?). You can still get deliveries. You can ask for people to shop for you.



I have been watching Chanel4 news recently, as a Hobson's choice, nothing else will stream option. Some chap today was saying the UK food supply system will fail, because, as with all systems, it is now just-in-time. Probably scare-mongering, panic inducing ratings grab, but if there are shortages, anyone who bought in advance will be better off than all those who, through peer pressure, were forced into assuming life as usual will carry on.

He who panics first panics best.

(Should those who bulk bought in anticipation be forced to share with those who were "good citizens", and selflessly restrained themselves from thinking ahead?)


----------



## AES

QUOTE: Should those who bulk bought in anticipation be forced to share with those who were "good citizens", and selflessly restrained themselves from thinking ahead?) UNQUOTE:

Or should those who've apparently nothing better to do than consistently see the worst side of everything instead just shut up and stop panicking themselves plus trying to panic everyone else within their out-reach?

Sorry Trainee neophyte, but your persistent doom and gloom mongering, based largely as far as I can see on your excessively pessimistic view of the world and its inhabitants is beginning to get on my male mammeries (such as they are).

IMO there's nothing in the least funny about what's happening - everywhere - and your (apparent?) attempts at humour (?) aren't improving things one jot.


----------



## doctor Bob

I shall be growing potatos this year ...............


----------



## Bm101

You'll be counting on first croppers then Bob!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Trainee neophyte":142c8dxb said:


> Some chap today was saying the UK food supply system will fail, because, as with all systems, it is now just-in-time. Probably scare-mongering, panic inducing ratings grab, but if there are shortages, anyone who bought in advance will be better off than all those who, through peer pressure, were forced into assuming life as usual will carry on.
> 
> He who panics first panics best.
> 
> (Should those who bulk bought in anticipation be forced to share with those who were "good citizens", and selflessly restrained themselves from thinking ahead?)



No. Rationing would be introduced before it reached that stage. There are no shortages, just selfish people panic buying. Some of the supermarkets are already restricting quantities per customer of some items.

It would be divine retribution if the panic buyers contracted obesity-related diseases as they gobbled their stash before the use-by dates.

In other news, my mum found an old book of petrol coupons left over from the 1940s, in her dad's name. I've told her to hang on to them, just in case. Mind you, my car's a diesel, so I may have to do a trade with someone ...


----------



## Doug B

doctor Bob":1qfwuj0a said:


> I shall be growing potatos this year ...............



You’ll be lucky to have any much before June though Bob, hopefully if I do have to have some time off I’ll be self isolating down the allotment


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":1a3ah8jb said:


> Everyone is very down on people buying too much food, but if you are told to self-isolate for 14 weeks, how much food should you buy? Or should you self isolate, except when you go out?
> 
> Confused, Milton Keynes


I panic bought two bars of Lindt Cognac Chocolate.

Now I feel guilty and tainted.


----------



## Bm101

[youtube]WPMMNvYTEyI[/youtube]


----------



## Andy Kev.

To be serious for a moment: It's important that the elderly self-isolate. However, they still have to eat etc. and naturally they will want a bit of fresh air now and then like everyone else.

I wonder if it would make sense for the shops, supermarkets and cafes to reserve a two hour slot exclusively for the elderly. That way they might stay safe because if they've not got it and if the shop assistants wear face masks, they should be OK.

There's bound to be a flaw in my thinking and it might not be practical but I wonder if it's worth a thought.


----------



## RogerS

Bm101":14gvvqnh said:


> Also.
> Test people on cooking in shops.
> Wtf madam. You want to buy 15kg of rice. Are you a keen rice eater?
> Ohhh. Yes?
> Ahhh and what's your normal procedure for producing a problem free fluffed light basmati?
> I... I... boil it? For 25 minutes?
> 
> .*Presses Red Button. Yes no problem at all Madam please take the *left* hand door to leave the store.
> *whispers into collar mike* Another live one for mincing... over.



If only. My doctor chum was in his local Tesco and saw a bloke sweating profusely and coughing his guts up. Everyone giving him a wide birth. Why didn't anyone drag the cretin out into the street ?


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":3897kke5 said:


> That brought some lightness to my evening, Chris - much needed after the broadcast.
> 
> Hearing the broadcast clarified things for me - taking the kids out of school as of today, I can't see the point in me going about the place social distancing, washing and singing endlessly when they're in school coughing and spluttering over each other, sharing keyboards and (most insane of all under the circs) paying for the tray of food they're about to eat for lunch by pressing fingers on the print reader that pays for the meal. No doubt I'll be summoned for keeping them home, but there you go.
> 
> Good to see things stepped up, even if it does all sounds a bit optional.



Channel 4 News this evening highlighted for me just how bad these 'journalists/presenters' are. Kathy ??? Wotsit interviewing a junior Health Minister and asked...as you have...what is the point of not going down the pub if your kids are at school. No sensible answer...then the Minister got into the rut wth usual BS spiel. Good question, I thought. But then Kathy Wotsit asked 'When are you going to make it a criminal offence for people to leave their homes'....right on, Kathy, ramp it up with sensationalistic non-journalism.

Have to confess Chris152 I am coming round to your way of thinking. Smart move to take your children out of school.

On the plus side, I thought the Three Musketeer pitch was good and appealed to our 'sense of proportionality'. Hey ho..then I hear what my mate saw in Tesco's and think....maybe not.


----------



## Bm101

Andy Kev.":34774jle said:


> To be serious for a moment: It's important that the elderly self-isolate. However, they still have to eat etc. and naturally they will want a bit of fresh air now and then like everyone else.
> 
> I wonder if it would make sense for the shops, supermarkets and cafes to reserve a two hour slot exclusively for the elderly. That way they might stay safe because if they've not got it and if the shop assistants wear face masks, they should be OK.
> 
> There's bound to be a flaw in my thinking and it might not be practical but I wonder if it's worth a thought.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -customers

There's also various schemes being set up to aid in helping more vulnerable people locally in our communities. Lots to google if people want to show their true colours and not panic.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Von Clausewitz famously observed, "No plan survives contact with the enemy".

I think we can add to that, "No rational appeal for common sense behaviour survives contact with the public".


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":2pfrx2ec said:


> To be serious for a moment: It's important that the elderly self-isolate. However, they still have to eat etc. and naturally they will want a bit of fresh air now and then like everyone else.
> 
> I wonder if it would make sense for the shops, supermarkets and cafes to reserve a two hour slot exclusively for the elderly. That way they might stay safe because if they've not got it and if the shop assistants wear face masks, they should be OK.
> 
> There's bound to be a flaw in my thinking and it might not be practical but I wonder if it's worth a thought.


Iceland are opening half an hour earlier in the morning for us wrinklies. 

I'm now faced with a bit of a dilemma. If I'd been ordered to stay home then I'd have grumbled a bit more but gone along with it. Missing out on my very early morning gym visits. But now ? You see, it's a very, very basic old-school iron gym. 24 hour. You let yourself in with the keycode on the door. When I go there's never anyone else there. I wear gloves ...so why not keep going ?


----------



## Lons

I watched the whole broadcast tonight and I thought they handled it pretty well in the circumstances if you overlook the usual Boris blustering. The 2 experts answered the questions and I thought were honest in admitting they're learning as we go along and don't know all the answers, why do brain dead journalists pose questions like " when will it end?" " can you give us a date? " etc. 
Remember these guys are the swan bodies on the lake surface and there's a hell of a lot of frantic paddling action below.

There are a huge number of armchair amateur " experts" among the general public and if it wasn't for the mass hysteria propagated on social media and fuelled by the press and on TV probably wouldn't have the volume of panic buying either.


----------



## Demusss

Chris152":1lpzz6mw said:


> Hearing the broadcast clarified things for me - taking the kids out of school as of today, I can't see the point in me going about the place social distancing, washing and singing endlessly when they're in school coughing and spluttering over each other, sharing keyboards and (most insane of all under the circs) paying for the tray of food they're about to eat for lunch by pressing fingers on the print reader that pays for the meal. No doubt I'll be summoned for keeping them home, but there you go.



If you get any comeback on keeping the kids out of school, just say you had a fever and then you'll be following this advice.

"If one person in any household has a persistent cough or fever, everyone living there must stay at home for 14 days"

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk


----------



## RogerS

I wondered why Boris didn't close theatres and pubs. Then I read this ..

_Patrick Gracey, producer of Tom Stoppard's latest play Leopoldstadt, said the prime minister "has just doomed an entire industry by telling people not to attend the theatre".
He added: "By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay."_

And thought...aha...someone's had a quiet word in BoJo's ear.


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":1mim0cw8 said:


> .........Some chap today was saying..........



There's where you went wrong, TN. That means that everything that follows is gossip.


----------



## MikeG.

Demusss":2hquf2cx said:


> ........If you get any comeback on keeping the kids out of school, just say you had a fever and then you'll be following this advice........



That's work for a week or two. Not sure how well it will stand up to 3 months of keeping them home.......


----------



## Blackswanwood

RogerS":1cy5t3lt said:


> I wondered why Boris didn't close theatres and pubs. Then I read this ..
> 
> _Patrick Gracey, producer of Tom Stoppard's latest play Leopoldstadt, said the prime minister "has just doomed an entire industry by telling people not to attend the theatre".
> He added: "By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay."_
> 
> And thought...aha...someone's had a quiet word in BoJo's ear.



Sorry Roger but that is absolutely illogical. In letting industries suffer and leaving tens of thousand without pay the government ends up picking up the tab. It’s simply something that hasn’t been thought through.


----------



## Rorschach

They aren't forcibly closing things because how would it be enforced? Brits don't like Police on the streets strutting their stuff, we tend to get a bit rioty about it and there aren't enough anyway.
Works alright in countries like Spain and Germany where the populace is a bit more used to listening to facists, won't work here. Gentle coercion is the best policy.


----------



## doctor Bob

Bm101":3sud4q28 said:


> You'll be counting on first croppers then Bob!



dig em as I need em.

How easy are pasta trees to grow?
or maybe I should be growing dock leaves :wink:


----------



## Jake

Basically, the Imperial College modelling team cabbage up:

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical care requirements that we examined. In addition, *even if all patients were able to be treated*, we predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US. 
*In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning estimates assumed half the demand now estimated)*and with the NHS providing increasing certainty around the limits of hospital surge capacity."

Truly shocking and just as well everyone has been shouting at them. Mitigation dropped today in favour of suppression, ie the strategy they said wasn't needed and/or wouldn't work. Let's hope they pivoted in time.

Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf


----------



## Jake

So they'd planned for "mitigate" and "herd immunity" with a lower social and economic impact allowing for 250k deaths, and realised they'd completely ballsed up their calculations of hospital surge capacity. They aren't willing to say what the numbers would have been, but on the Lombardy model it's somewhere around 6% of diagnosed as opposed to c1%, so 1.5m dead which is about what the government's critics have been saying this strategy would end up with. Cue quick pivot from government without admitting it's a complete strategy change to the suppression model they've been pooh-poohing other countries for pursuing.


----------



## Demusss

Jake":z9a1mry1 said:


> Source: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf



A very interesting read

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Lons":djgz9cc6 said:


> ... why do brain dead journalists pose questions like " when will it end?" " can you give us a date? " etc ...


 Reminiscent of Brian Moore being interviewed about England's chances in the Rugby world cup some years ago - What are England's chances? I don't know, there are too many unknowns. Can you you tell us exactly what these unknowns are? No. They wouldn't be unknown then, would they?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Phil Pascoe":1cx814rx said:


> Lons":1cx814rx said:
> 
> 
> 
> ... why do brain dead journalists pose questions like " when will it end?" " can you give us a date? " etc ...
> 
> 
> 
> Reminiscent of Brian Moore being interviewed about England's chances in the Rugby world cup some years ago - What are England's chances? I don't know, there are too many unknowns. Can you you tell us exactly what these unknowns are? No. They wouldn't be unknown then, would they?
Click to expand...


Donald Rumsfeld had all that covered:


> Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tend to be the difficult ones.[1][


----------



## Trainee neophyte

What we need are some less panicked, more rational people making the decisions: 

[youtube]p_AyuhbnPOI[/youtube]


----------



## RogerS

TN...will you please stop posting this rubbish. It's not a laughing matter. You're not helping. I'm sticking you on my foe list as I can't be bothered to see this drivel any more.

If you can't see the seriousness of this situation then I feel for your family.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":1vzeb9if said:


> Trainee neophyte":1vzeb9if said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........Some chap today was saying..........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> There's where you went wrong, TN. That means that everything that follows is gossip.
Click to expand...


I have just spent far too much time trying to find the video in question, and either I dreamed it, or it was deemed not necessary to keep a copy for posterity. So yes, let's pretend it never happened, because I have zero evidence to back it up. 

The thrust of this mythical expert's argument was that the UK imports 50% of its food, and there is no warehousing capabilities because everyone runs on a just-in-time system. Any exogenous shock (to use the jargon du jour) will have an immediate impact on food supplies, seen as empty spaces on shelves. If all national borders are closed, what next? Brexit showed how big the potential for problems could be, with just government intervention causing the disruption. If all the French ports (full of diseased would-be immigrants) are quarantined, then what? 

It was just a bit of panic-mongering on the telly, but an interesting thing to consider, none-the-less.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":3t8qd1dp said:


> TN...will you please stop posting this rubbish. It's not a laughing matter. You're not helping. I'm sticking you on my foe list as I can't be bothered to see this drivel any more.
> 
> If you can't see the seriousness of this situation then I feel for your family.



I feel I'm in the Twilight zone right now. Which bit of rubbish did you have in mind, specifically? If you disagree with something, tell me, but which bit? What? And more importantly, why?


----------



## AES

"T n", you wrote, QUOTE: Have I become the new Jacob? UNQUOTE:

IMO, not yet, but with some of the doom & gloom rubbish you've been posting on this thread, you're definitely going in that sort of direction!

For goodness sake man, we're NOT "all going to die" and "the world as we know it is NOT going to end soon". But this IS serious, so get a grip - please.


----------



## RogerS

Blackswanwood":1r7d9nni said:


> RogerS":1r7d9nni said:
> 
> 
> 
> I wondered why Boris didn't close theatres and pubs. Then I read this ..
> 
> _Patrick Gracey, producer of Tom Stoppard's latest play Leopoldstadt, said the prime minister "has just doomed an entire industry by telling people not to attend the theatre".
> He added: "By not enforcing a shutdown, production insurance will not apply so producers and shows will go bankrupt, and tens of thousands of people will be without pay."_
> 
> And thought...aha...someone's had a quiet word in BoJo's ear.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry Roger but that is absolutely illogical. In letting industries suffer and leaving tens of thousand without pay the government ends up picking up the tab. It’s simply something that hasn’t been thought through.
Click to expand...


I'm afraid that although it might sound illogical, it is fact.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

About doom and gloom - it is all views of the future. At the stroke of a pen, my government has just stopped all tourism, therefore my personal income will drop by about 60%. I am now working out which animals to kill, in which order, because I can no longer afford to feed them. Concentrates the thinking somewhat. 

So for the collective group-think: will banks survive several months of near-zero economic activity? Will the governments create vast amounts of new money to bail them out again? Will this be inflationary, or deflationary, or will life carry on as normal with nary a ripple to the economic well-being of the world economy? 

"Making predictions is hard. Especially about the future".


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":2ks2i7rw said:


> .........The thrust of this mythical expert's argument was that the UK imports 50% of its food, and there is no warehousing capabilities because everyone runs on a just-in-time system........



You know this is twaddle without me having to tell you. All the supermarkets have "distribution centres", which are giant warehouses. When a no deal Brexit looked imminent supermarkets built up big stocks in these distribution centres. Obviously imported fruit and veg don't have a long shelf life so large stocks of those can't be held, but all other stuff can be. If you have to miss out on one of your 5 a day now and then I wouldn't have thought it was the end of the world.

On a general note, if you want to find a Youtube or Facebook clip of someone making a doom and gloom prediction you can on any and every subject under the sun. Every nutcase on the planet is hard at it right now. What we would hope of fellow posters is that a minute or two's thought would go in before posting codswallop dreamt up by some snotty teenage Trump-alike in his bedroom. Think......verify......filter......post (with links). That would be my suggestion. And keep clear of American prepper and religious websites.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":3jalhbcz said:


> Trainee neophyte":3jalhbcz said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........The thrust of this mythical expert's argument was that the UK imports 50% of its food, and there is no warehousing capabilities because everyone runs on a just-in-time system........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know this is twaddle without me having to tell you. All the supermarkets have "distribution centres", which are giant warehouses. When a no deal Brexit looked imminent supermarkets built up big stocks in these distribution centres. Obviously imported fruit and veg don't have a long shelf life so large stocks of those can't be held, but all other stuff can be. If you have to miss out on one of your 5 a day now and then I wouldn't have thought it was the end of the world.
> 
> On a general note, if you want to find a Youtube or Facebook clip of someone making a doom and gloom prediction you can on any and every subject under the sun. Every nutcase on the planet is hard at it right now. What we would hope of fellow posters is that a minute or two's thought would go in before posting codswallop dreamt up by some snotty teenage Trump-alike in his bedroom. Think......verify......filter......post (with links). That would be my suggestion. And keep clear of American prepper and religious websites.
Click to expand...


You're beating your head against a brick wall, Mike. He ain't gonna change. Nice and quiet now the Foe list has been updated.


----------



## Fitzroy

MikeG.":539hb50t said:


> And keep clear of American prepper and religious websites.



My company has sent everyone to work from home until mid April at least. Some of my younger engineers don’t have a suitable work space. How your only table is a coffee table I have no idea, but that’s a conversation for another day. Anyhow I’ve told them to buy a cheap desk to work from. 

One of them linked the below item and I thought Argos were cashing in with their prepper desk!







Fitz.


----------



## Deadeye

Hi

Well, I thought I'd come back and revist this thread - and am sorry to see it getting a bit ugly in places. Please can we do our disagreement respectfully?

For folk who are wondering if this "social distancing" thing is all nonsense, this is an excellent resource : https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics ... ukclimbing
I haven't read all 24 pages of the thread, so apologies if it's been posted already.

My original view (p.6) still holds, I'm afraid. The elderly in particular are in a horrible situation - most get little enough social contact as it is, and it's what keeps them going and provides virtually all their quality of life. 12 weeks is a very long time.

As for the fallout - well, the markets tell a story, and that's before the US has really got going. It's all going to hurt for a long time.


----------



## MikeG.

Well, here's a question. If someone 70+ gets the bug, they have no logical need to self-isolate after recovering. Is that right? My buddy who I visited yesterday has just phoned me to say he has a temperature and cold symptoms. He is 70. Did his 12 week isolation just turn into a 14 day isolation (if indeed it turns out he has Covid 19)?


----------



## RogerS

Deadeye":1b4s1tt3 said:


> .....12 weeks is a very long time.
> 
> ....



I take your point. But, eternity is even longer. 

I was going to be a bit gung-ho and keep going down to my gym. The time I go down, there is no-one there. I'd wear gloves etc. I asked my doctor chum for his opinion.

I'm not now going down to my gym. 

I have a periodic B12 jab every three months. The next one is next week. I cancelled it. Partly because they've got better things to do with their resources down the surgery. Partly because it isn't critical. But mainly because of what my doctor chum told me.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":2c5nxtd1 said:


> Well, here's a question. If someone 70+ gets the bug, they have no logical need to self-isolate after recovering. Is that right? My buddy who I visited yesterday has just phoned me to say he has a temperature and cold symptoms. He is 70. Did his 12 week isolation just turn into a 14 day isolation (if indeed it turns out he has Covid 19)?



That's my impression. But there has been talk about getting it twice, I think, albeit very very rare.


----------



## Just4Fun

RogerS":1yjxk4co said:


> But there has been talk about getting it twice, I think, albeit very very rare.


Have you seen reliable reports of that?
The only comments I have seen were that it is not clear whether those poor sods really caught it again, or whether their "all clear" the first time was a false negative. It would be nice to think catching it twice is rare or never happens but I haven't seen anything definitive either way. There is so much BS around that it is hard to sift out the real truth.


----------



## RogerS

Just4Fun":1wtz5cx0 said:


> RogerS":1wtz5cx0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> But there has been talk about getting it twice, I think, albeit very very rare.
> 
> 
> 
> Have you seen reliable reports of that?
> The only comments I have seen were that it is not clear whether those poor sods really caught it again, or whether their "all clear" the first time was a false negative. It would be nice to think catching it twice is rare or never happens but I haven't seen anything definitive either way. There is so much BS around that it is hard to sift out the real truth.
Click to expand...


Not at all. As I said 'talk'.


----------



## Lons

Trainee neophyte":3nhjp2ek said:


> Have I become the new Jacob?



There will never be anyone quite like Jacob, he has a monopoly on irritating behaviour but you're getting there pretty quickly. :lol:


----------



## marcros

RogerS":3f55nm4q said:


> Deadeye":3f55nm4q said:
> 
> 
> 
> .....12 weeks is a very long time.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I take your point. But, eternity is even longer.
> 
> I was going to be a bit gung-ho and keep going down to my gym. The time I go down, there is no-one there. I'd wear gloves etc. I asked my doctor chum for his opinion.
> 
> I'm not now going down to my gym.
> 
> I have a periodic B12 jab every three months. The next one is next week. I cancelled it. Partly because they've got better things to do with their resources down the surgery. Partly because it isn't critical. But mainly because of what my doctor chum told me.
Click to expand...


I had been a bit gung-ho and tried to keep getting the benefit of the gym that I pay for each month. I am 40 not 70 but by their nature gyms are sweaty germy places, frequented by many and there is a limit to how careful an individual can be. Pure gym have increased their cleaning routine, but I am not particularly reassured by this when I see chewing gum on at least 2 of the machines that has been there for months. that means that somebody must fail to notice it many times a day x many weeks. the people that washed their hands regularly before are probably doing it a bit more now, but I don't believe that those who never bothered before will suddenly start.

I hate running with a passion, but I think now is probably the time to give it a go again. even a youtube yoga video may be something but I think that the time has come to abandon the gym for a bit.


----------



## Rorschach

The gym my partner attends has been closed until further notice due to the difficulty of keeping equipment clean.

I am not one for sports or exercise but I do go for a brisk walk of a couple of miles every day. I see no reason to stop this since I do not come into contact with anyone. With other activities being restricted at the weekends I plan on getting out for more countryside walks as well, again these are not going to put me at risk nor anyone else.

Undecided what to do about shopping and food supplies at the moment however.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

So far as catching it again goes (and from what I've read we can), they have apparently identified two different strains, so I would imagine exposure to one wouldn't necessarily give immunity from the other.


----------



## Chris152

Just walked the dog around our local high street - quite surprised to see so may people out and about, even people sat in cafes. I wonder if the govt advice/ strong advice/ very strong advice isn't quite cutting through. Also a bit surprised to see businesses on social media trying to tempt people to come in - 'we need your support to keep going etc'. 
All a bit too vague.


----------



## RogerS

marcros":pmjhomv1 said:


> RogerS":pmjhomv1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Deadeye":pmjhomv1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .....12 weeks is a very long time.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I take your point. But, eternity is even longer.
> 
> I was going to be a bit gung-ho and keep going down to my gym. The time I go down, there is no-one there. I'd wear gloves etc. I asked my doctor chum for his opinion.
> 
> I'm not now going down to my gym.
> 
> I have a periodic B12 jab every three months. The next one is next week. I cancelled it. Partly because they've got better things to do with their resources down the surgery. Partly because it isn't critical. But mainly because of what my doctor chum told me.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I had been a bit gung-ho and tried to keep getting the benefit of the gym that I pay for each month. I am 40 not 70 but by their nature gyms are sweaty germy places, frequented by many and there is a limit to how careful an individual can be. Pure gym have increased their cleaning routine, but I am not particularly reassured by this when I see chewing gum on at least 2 of the machines that has been there for months. that means that somebody must fail to notice it many times a day x many weeks. the people that washed their hands regularly before are probably doing it a bit more now, but I don't believe that those who never bothered before will suddenly start.
> 
> I hate running with a passion, but I think now is probably the time to give it a go again. even a youtube yoga video may be something but I think that the time has come to abandon the gym for a bit.
Click to expand...


Sweaty is something my gym definitely isn't. It's in a very old ex- paint works. No heating. On a really cold day, you can see the steam on my breath! Chances are there will be little in the air. Some on the weights and machines but disposable gloves will sort that out. The frustrating thing is that I'd just about got back to where I used to be lifting weight-wise (25kg in each hand Inclined Bench Press) but that will all fritter away for the moment.

Like you I hate running.


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":167lo3cw said:


> Just walked the dog around our local high street - quite surprised to see so may people out and about, even people sat in cafes. I wonder if the govt advice/ strong advice/ very strong advice isn't quite cutting through. ...



It's getting through up here in Cumbria. Carlisle like a ghost town.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I've just taken the dog for his usual two miles. Saw the two people I usually see.


----------



## Chris152

RogerS":awtic3id said:


> The frustrating thing is that I'd just about got back to where I used to be lifting weight-wise (25kg in each hand Inclined Bench Press) but that will all fritter away for the moment.
> 
> Like you I hate running.


Could you buy in a simple set of weights (they're not so expensive on Amazon etc) and build yourself a heavy-duty bench - nice woodworking project? 
Seriously, I'd imagine keeping in the best shape you can both mentally and physically is important, and it sounds like it's going on for quite some time. I bought one of those stands to put a regular bike on so you can use it indoors - the weather's been so bad for cycling this year it made sense, and now it makes even more sense.


----------



## Lons

I played golf yesterday at a Newcastle club with a huge car and dining area that's always heaving at lunch time and we usually can't find a seat to have a coffee after the game, yesterday it was empty apart from the 3 of us and 5 other people. The course was busy though.

That was before the announcements to stay at home but I'm still going fishing on Thursday as the only contact to catch it from are the fish.  Do trout carry Corvid-19? :wink:


----------



## Bm101

10.33 am Regent Street. As usual I'm up among the chim er neee pooootttts. Just taken this. 
It's hardly Where's Bloomin' Wally.


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":krpy8wb0 said:


> RogerS":krpy8wb0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> The frustrating thing is that I'd just about got back to where I used to be lifting weight-wise (25kg in each hand Inclined Bench Press) but that will all fritter away for the moment.
> 
> Like you I hate running.
> 
> 
> 
> Could you buy in a simple set of weights (they're not so expensive on Amazon etc) and build yourself a heavy-duty bench - nice woodworking project?
> Seriously, I'd imagine keeping in the best shape you can both mentally and physically is important, and it sounds like it's going on for quite some time. I bought one of those stands to put a regular bike on so you can use it indoors - the weather's been so bad for cycling this year it made sense, and now it makes even more sense.
Click to expand...


Nice idea, Chris, but you need a whole range of weights and the price soon adds up.


----------



## Rorschach

I'm going to have to cancel my London trip this week, part of me still wants to go just to wander the deserted streets though.


----------



## Lons

Cut up a few logs and rig something up Roger :wink:


----------



## NickM

It's dig for victory here. My wife has me making "windows" for a cold frame. I guess it's still woodwork, but fine furniture it certainly ain't (although I did clean this up a bit after I took the clamps off).






(I really can't get photos to show the right way up. It works if you click on it. I wonder if the forum likes all pictures to be landscape?)


----------



## Terry - Somerset

The number of people required to create herd immunity depends on the rate of infection tranmission. In the case of COVID the best estimate is that each infection has the potential to spread it to approx 2.5 others.

So when 60% of the population is infected, the probability is that the infection will be passed on to only one other - 40% vulnerable x 2.5. Once the rate falls below 1 the spread of infection declines rapidly.

Through advice and/or regulation the government can reduce the spread below the "natural" level - if there is no human interaction there can be no new infections. This is largely what has happened in China - an authoritarian not democratic regime. Seems like problem solved - but what happens when the controls are relaxed?

So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. Government realise that they are part of the herd too - get them infected at an early stage, build up the herd, they rarely have a severe response to the infection so no great demands on NHS.

But they also infect their parents and other family members. Parents (generalisations here) are typically going to be 25-50 years old. Low incidence of severe problems with infection and build up the herd some more. Grandparents obviously more at risk!

As the parent generation build up immunity they can return to working and spending normally - providing their employer has not gone bust in the meantime. This reduces but does not eliminate economic consequences.

But the greatest load on the NHS comes in dealing with the most vulnerable - the elderly and those with chronic problems. Controlling the spread to these groups is key to ensuring that care needs are below the capacity of the NHS to deal with them. Sadly I still think the NHS will be seriously overstretched and unable to provide a service to all at the peak.

Final point - why not embed the advice in legislation with criminal sanctions. Compulsion needs to be enforced and we don't have the police numbers to deal with it. Bring in the troops and we start to look like a police state. 

The British "culture" prefers to assume that the public when needed will work for the common good - we did it in the blitz so why not now! A little like Spinal Tap (the rock band in the film) who were proud of their amp which could be turned up to 11 when most could only go to 10, criminalising non-compliance leave you nowhere else to go if the response needs reinforcing in the future.


----------



## Lons

Like it!  

Keeps you busy, probably out of her hair and you can use them to grow your own food. 
Win win situation.


----------



## Lons

Terry - Somerset":g0vtvtpr said:


> but what happens when the controls are relaxed?



I know it can't be directly compared but Spanish flu it seems had 3 separate phases so you do have to wonder what the outcome will be. 
Whatever happens it will surface again, probably mutated and all anyone can do is try to learn, be better prepared and cope with it. We aren't rabbits with myxomatosis, we're a species of intelligent ( mostly ), creative, spectacularly inventive individuals are we not?


----------



## doctor Bob

RogerS":2ho3sjxx said:


> Chris152":2ho3sjxx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":2ho3sjxx said:
> 
> 
> 
> The frustrating thing is that I'd just about got back to where I used to be lifting weight-wise (25kg in each hand Inclined Bench Press) but that will all fritter away for the moment.
> 
> Like you I hate running.
> 
> 
> 
> Could you buy in a simple set of weights (they're not so expensive on Amazon etc) and build yourself a heavy-duty bench - nice woodworking project?
> Seriously, I'd imagine keeping in the best shape you can both mentally and physically is important, and it sounds like it's going on for quite some time. I bought one of those stands to put a regular bike on so you can use it indoors - the weather's been so bad for cycling this year it made sense, and now it makes even more sense.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Nice idea, Chris, but you need a whole range of weights and the price soon adds up.
Click to expand...


Buy a set of gym rings, £11.99 from amazon. You will be stunned how bad your strength is whether doing weights or not. I've used a set for 6 months and love them, pull ups, dips, push ups on rings are just a different level. 40 push ups, easy on the floor, on rings 2-3 probably max first time. The exercise programs for rings on you tube are brill. I also have a pommell horse but that's ridiculous.


----------



## Just4Fun

NickM":32lj1k6f said:


> My wife has me making "windows" for a cold frame. I guess it's still woodwork, but fine furniture it certainly ain't


You have my sympathies but it could be worse. Last week my wife volunteered me for a job that only involved cutting lap joints in a load of rough-sawn 2x1 battens. As you say it may be woodwork but fine furniture it certainly ain't.


----------



## RogerS

Terry - Somerset":1ili7re9 said:


> ......
> So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. ......



Because there are rather a large number of essential workers....doctors, nurses, etc.. who would then have to stop working to look after their children perhaps ?


----------



## RogerS

doctor Bob":3dkp4w5f said:


> RogerS":3dkp4w5f said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris152":3dkp4w5f said:
> 
> 
> 
> Could you buy in a simple set of weights (they're not so expensive on Amazon etc) and build yourself a heavy-duty bench - nice woodworking project?
> Seriously, I'd imagine keeping in the best shape you can both mentally and physically is important, and it sounds like it's going on for quite some time. I bought one of those stands to put a regular bike on so you can use it indoors - the weather's been so bad for cycling this year it made sense, and now it makes even more sense.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nice idea, Chris, but you need a whole range of weights and the price soon adds up.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Buy a set of gym rings, £11.99 from amazon. You will be stunned how bad your strength is whether doing weights or not. I've used a set for 6 months and love them, pull ups, dips, push ups on rings are just a different level. 40 push ups, easy on the floor, on rings 2-3 probably max first time. The exercise programs for rings on you tube are brill. I also have a pommell horse but that's ridiculous.
Click to expand...


Slight problem. Nothing to fix them to/suspend them from and my wife would kill me if I started screwing fixing bolts to the ceiling.


----------



## RogerS

In these times of trial, it is essential that we all pull together and support initiatives to keep businesses afloat. I'm doing my bit...





Placed my order


----------



## Bodgers

RogerS":1lnldkci said:


> Terry - Somerset":1lnldkci said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......
> So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. ......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Because there are rather a large number of essential workers....doctors, nurses, etc.. who would then have to stop working to look after their children perhaps ?
Click to expand...

I wonder if an alternative might be to allow those that do have childcare to stop attending? Keep the school open for the rest. Might help reduce things at least.

At my daughter's school, the numbers attending have dropped off, many with parents with conditions and other such reasons.


----------



## doctor Bob

RogerS":2a3xz8a5 said:


> Slight problem. Nothing to fix them to/suspend them from and my wife would kill me if I started screwing fixing bolts to the ceiling.



tree?


----------



## RogerS

doctor Bob":ryy4o3g6 said:


> RogerS":ryy4o3g6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Slight problem. Nothing to fix them to/suspend them from and my wife would kill me if I started screwing fixing bolts to the ceiling.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> tree?
Click to expand...


This IS Northumberland, Bob. We don't go outside until just the middle two days in July.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":2kxuobwd said:


> Trainee neophyte":2kxuobwd said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........The thrust of this mythical expert's argument was that the UK imports 50% of its food, and there is no warehousing capabilities because everyone runs on a just-in-time system........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You know this is twaddle without me having to tell you. All the supermarkets have "distribution centres", which are giant warehouses. When a no deal Brexit looked imminent supermarkets built up big stocks in these distribution centres. Obviously imported firuit and veg don't have a long shelf life so large stocks of those can't be held, but all other stuff can be. If you have to miss out on one of your 5 a day now and then I wouldn't have thought it was the end of the world.
> 
> On a general note, if you want to find a Youtube or Facebook clip of someone making a doom and gloom prediction you can on any and every subject under the sun. Every nutcase on the planet is hard at it right now. What we would hope of fellow posters is that a minute or two's thought would go in before posting codswallop dreamt up by some snotty teenage Trump-alike in his bedroom. Think......verify......filter......post (with links). That would be my suggestion. And keep clear of American prepper and religious websites.
Click to expand...


Mike, I certainly don't want to fall out over this, because food security in the UK is of absolutely no relevance to me. I mentioned the Chanel4 report because every time I watch Chanel4 news, they have some lunatic ranting about how the government is trying to kill everyone. Being new to this particular news outlet, I am wondering if it is a common theme for Chanel4, of just a new Coronanvirus enthusiasm. 

And about everything else, I really, really hope that life caries on as usual, and everything is perfect and lovely. Forgive me if I make a few minor adjustments to my circumstances to ensure that, if it isn't, I won't be too materially affected. I will refrain from suggesting other people do too, because defeatest talk is frowned upon, it would seem. Keep calm, and carry on!

.


----------



## RogerS

OK...so here's the thing. All very well telling us wrinklies to order online. Anyone tried it ? If the supermarkets' IT systems aren't crashing due to overload then there are no available slots. No choice but to get in the car.

I seem to recall entering my DOB when I created my online account. If so then simple....modify their IT system. If you're over-70 then you can place an order. If not....on yer bike  or use the car!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

RogerS":vy2wun67 said:


> In these times of trial, it is essential that we all pull together and support initiatives to keep businesses afloat. I'm doing my bit...
> 
> 
> Placed my order



That's the way to beat this health crisis - give up exercise and drink more beer!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Went out for my daily walk this morning. There were lots of people about, including some of the 'regulars'. One lady I see from time to time had a carton of milk with her.

Lady, "I'm just off to deliver this to my mum. She locked the doors and won't come out at all."

Me, "That's a bit over the top at the moment, isn't it?"

Lady, "Yes, it is, but it doesn't half make my life quieter!"


----------



## MusicMan

and vulnerable grandparents who would be looking after them. Needs to be coupled with a childcare plan.


----------



## Nick Laguna UK

Bodgers":26rg9mko said:


> RogerS":26rg9mko said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Terry - Somerset":26rg9mko said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......
> So why not close schools - children are just mobile petri dishes. ......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Because there are rather a large number of essential workers....doctors, nurses, etc.. who would then have to stop working to look after their children perhaps ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I wonder if an alternative might be to allow those that do have childcare to stop attending? Keep the school open for the rest. Might help reduce things at least.
> 
> At my daughter's school, the numbers attending have dropped off, many with parents with conditions and other such reasons.
Click to expand...


This is the logical approach I agree - I don't understand why it hasn't been implemented - I'm now working from home and have cancelled all visits/meetings - I'm OK to look after all my kids - my eldest daughter has Down Syndrome and although she is healthy I find it worrying her special school is till open, knowing the vulnerability of some of her classmates.


----------



## thetyreman

went to the supermarket today and there were no eggs, first time I've ever seen that in my life, it was a bit eerie and not many people there.


----------



## Lons

thetyreman":26hntylo said:


> went to the supermarket today and there were no eggs, first time I've ever seen that in my life, it was a bit eerie and not many people there.


My mate has 80+ hens so he might give us a few eggs, wouldn't like to live on them though.

The rabbits, pheasants and pigeons around our property could be in danger going forward, now where did I put my air rifle?


----------



## Trevanion

Might have to resort to eating the moles :shock:


----------



## RogerS

Some nice new-born lambs by us. :twisted: I could make a deer and lamb casserole.


----------



## John Brown

Trevanion":3vd85es6 said:


> Might have to resort to eating the moles :shock:


William Buckland, whose ambition was to eat through creation from A to Z, once said that mole was the worst thing he'd ever tasted. Later in life he changed his mind, and said that the bluebottle fly was worse.


----------



## Gerry

17 staff and skilled redundancies announced at work today due to supply and demand difficulties caused by the virus (automotive manufacturing) . Nissan, Just up the road and one of our major customers suspending production on a day to day basis for the same reason this afternoon too.
This is just the start and I can see the next several month being life changing for many.

Gerry


----------



## Lons

Trevanion":27ljn2zd said:


> Might have to resort to eating the moles :shock:


Even the neighbours cats which are quite happy to kill moles refuse to eat them. There was a dead one in our field for several days during all that rain when I refused to venture out to pick it up, had it been a rabbit, mouse or rat the local buzzards, sparrowhawks, owls or magpies would have picked it up pdq but it seems they don't like them either.


----------



## Lons

RogerS":3495ji9b said:


> Some nice new-born lambs by us. :twisted: I could make a deer and lamb casserole.


That throws up another potential issue Roger. Poaching and sheep rustling are more common than people realise, I'm sure that will increase and lambs are easy targets. You'll know it's happening if the supermarkets run out of mint sauce!

There was a local facebook advert a few weeks ago offering several hundred hens foc to anyone who could offer good homes, my daughter forwarded to me to see if my mate wanted to add to his already large flock, they were in a rough area of the north east and within a few hours the ad was deleted on police advice due to a number of undesirables scaling 8' fences to steal them for butchering. :roll:


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Some thirty inches from my nose
The frontier of my Person goes,
And all the untilled air between
Is private pagus or demesne.
Stranger, unless with bedroom eyes
I beckon you to fraternize,
Beware of rudely crossing it:
I have no gun, but I can spit.

W H Auden


----------



## Jake

Schools haven't been closed because under the mitigation strategy they were happy for the spreading to take place for 'herd immunity', now they've realised suppression was the only viable strategy after all that was a nuts policy but they can't back off immediately because they previously said it wasn't necessary and was very a last ditch measure, and also presumably need some planning time because they aren't ready to roll out the surrounding policies.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Jake":3qgi8xix said:


> Schools haven't been closed because under the mitigation strategy they were happy for the spreading to take place for 'herd immunity', now they've realised suppression was the only viable strategy after all that was a nuts policy but they can't back off immediately because they previously said it wasn't necessary and was very a last ditch measure, and also presumably need some planning time because they aren't ready to roll out the surrounding policies.



It seems that decision is on scientific advice, not a political decision. Here's a clip of Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Officer, explaining his advice to a committee of MPs earlier today.

https://order-order.com/2020/03/17/schools-not-shut/


----------



## Deadeye

The schools issue is nuanced by the fact that if all the kids get sent home a big chunk of hospital staff disappear.
Italy has run out of Oxygen in some hospitals.


----------



## porker

Company asked us to work from home this week. Today they told us there is a suspected case in our office. Asked us to self isolate and warned us we may be working from home until the Summer. They have a specialist team in now for a week deep cleaning our offices. Already going through a redundancy round so I have serious doubts whether I will have a job in the next few months. Could be worse though and feel for others whose business is under threat.


----------



## doctor Bob

I'm a creature of habit, on the way home I call into Sainsbury's most days, buy 2 apples and a snack for lunch the next day plus milk for the next day at work.
I have never seen the shelves so bare. 2/3 empty, put the shhitteers up me a bit  no fresh food at all no frozen, no dried. Just the bollooxs no want wants in a time of crisis and chocolate.


----------



## Rorschach

porker":3gvyu5ll said:


> Company asked us to work from home this week. Today they told us there is a suspected case in our office. Asked us to self isolate and warned us we may be working from home until the Summer. They have a specialist team in now for a week deep cleaning our offices. Already going through a redundancy round so I have serious doubts whether I will have a job in the next few months. Could be worse though and feel for others whose business is under threat.



Deep cleaning is a waste of money if the office is empty.


----------



## porker

Large multinational company. Got to be seen to be doing something even if it's a total waste of time.


----------



## Jake

Cheshirechappie":9fc13ejp said:


> Jake":9fc13ejp said:
> 
> 
> 
> Schools haven't been closed because under the mitigation strategy they were happy for the spreading to take place for 'herd immunity', now they've realised suppression was the only viable strategy after all that was a nuts policy but they can't back off immediately because they previously said it wasn't necessary and was very a last ditch measure, and also presumably need some planning time because they aren't ready to roll out the surrounding policies.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It seems that decision is on scientific advice, not a political decision. Here's a clip of Sir Patrick Valance, Chief Scientific Officer, explaining his advice to a committee of MPs earlier today.
> 
> https://order-order.com/2020/03/17/schools-not-shut/
Click to expand...


Lost trust in him, saying 20,000 is horrible in that faux way (when they were deliberately planning for 250k under their mitigation/herd immunity strategy), being disingenuous about the modelling pineapple-up.


----------



## Jake

Deadeye":hpvlqmps said:


> The schools issue is nuanced by the fact that if all the kids get sent home a big chunk of hospital staff disappear.



That's the surrounding policies, along with low income children, and no doubt other bits. All takes a run up, especially as apparently this has exposed a lack of detailed level pandemic planning below the top level docs.


----------



## julianf

This ever repeated line about not being able to close schools due to NHS staff...

I, personally, think it's another lie.

2 reasons -

If keeping them open loads the NHS that much greater, its arguably worse than closing them and loosing a few staff.

But, more importantly -

How many families have two parents who both work in the NHS? Some, for sure. Some families don't have two parents, etc. But, in reality, a family with 2.4 children, 2 adults etc. and one works in the NHS... The other one, at a time if national emergency, could (with compensation if required) stay home to look after the kids.

I mean it's hardly worth risking mass fatalities for, is it?


Personally, I'm of the opinion that the powers that be know the UK is unavoidably stuffed, and the "mitigation" is more along the lines of "get it over with as quickly as possible, and get back to earning, whilst other countries are still caring for their sick"


We had house guests over new years.
They live in Paris. They get fined for leaving their apartment without the correct (self produced) paperwork outlining their intentions.

The UK? Told to avoid pubs... 

(Oh, and we have approximately half the number of ICU beds, per capita, as France!)


----------



## MusicMan

Emergency Ventilator Manufacture

The Government has widely circulated a list of components for ventilators that they are asking firms to supply. Of course the assembly, testing etc will be done by experienced and certified staff, but many of the components are quite routine - tubes, fans, motors, pumps, valves and can certainly be made by many competent firms. This is being really well organised and I am quite hopeful. Of course the organisation is being done by the civil servants of BEIS not the politicians, but the latter have promised to buy all that can be made. Similar initiatives are going on in the EU and USA at least.

Many engineers have been asked to pass this on through our networks, so if anyone is in an appropriate company, or has contacts in one, please pass it on. 

https://ventilator.herokuapp.com


----------



## Trainee neophyte

doctor Bob":14jtghsv said:


> I'm a creature of habit, on the way home I call into Sainsbury's most days, buy 2 apples and a snack for lunch the next day plus milk for the next day at work.
> I have never seen the shelves so bare. 2/3 empty, put the shhitteers up me a bit  no fresh food at all no frozen, no dried. Just the bollooxs no want wants in a time of crisis and chocolate.



It was made very clear to me yesterday that there will be no supply issues, and food security is assured. So don't worry.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Here is the paper that uk and USA governments are working to, apparently. Dr Neil Ferguson.
https://www.scribd.com/document/4520698 ... 16-03-2020


> Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand
> 
> Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin,Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, IlariaDorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine vanElsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker,Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.On behalf of the Imperial College COVID-19 Response TeamWHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease ModellingMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease AnalysisAbdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency AnalyticsImperial College London
> 
> Correspondence: [email protected]
> 
> Summary
> The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is themost serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. Here we present theresults of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countriesin recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, we assess the potential role of a number ofpublic health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducingcontact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presentedhere, we apply a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britainspecifically) and the US. We conclude that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likelyto be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact ontransmission.Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarilystopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk ofsevere disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducingcase numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has majorchallenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases,home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of theelderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 anddeaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds ofthousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed manytimes over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of socialdistancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their familymembers. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should berecognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission –will need to be maintained until avaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmissionwill quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily inrelative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbersrebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible inthe short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social andeconomic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.



Apologies for the big block of text and formatting issues


----------



## lurker

Posters keep commenting about schools closing would effect nhs parents.
Whilst no one disputes they are important people, we need lots of others at work.
What about power station staff, or oxygen manufacturers just for two examples.

Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Listening to one of the evening radio news programmes yesterday evening, an interview with a former senior executive with one of the big supermarkets covered the problems the big food retailers are facing. He said there are no supply shortages, but the sudden increases in demand in stores has overwhelmed the resupply systems. All the major retailers use sophisticated notification from store checkouts to warehouse to trigger resupply orders, but sudden huge spikes mean that the system takes a few days to catch up. Also, the increase in load on transport and physically moving stock from lorry to shelf in store has forced supermarkets to take some emergency measures. Things will catch up, but it may take a day or two.

He also pointed out that the official advice to avoid pubs and clubs has meant that many people who used to eat out several times a week are now eating in, moving demand from the pub and restaurant trade to retail supermarkets. The food that would have gone to those parts of the catering sector is now in the market and available to retailers, but again, it'll take a day or two for systems to settle down.

His message was that there are no supply shortages of any foodstuff or commodity, but the sudden change in demand pattern has shocked the supermarkets' systems. They will adjust, and quite quickly.

Empty shelves won't become the norm, and if everyone just calms down and just buys what they need when they need it, we'll be fine. On the food front, anyway.

As for the wider economy, too soon to say, but the immediate effects on many businesses have been pretty dramatic. Fingers crossed for those affected, with hope that government's emergency economic measures do actually help.


----------



## AES

Thanks very much for a calm and measured - and to me anyway - logical post CC. This is exactly how I'm reading the situation in Switzerland too.

About the only difference I can see between the 2 countries in respect of handling Corona is that here all schools are closed. I'm unable to work out who is "right" who is "wrong" on this issue (I suspect that both approaches will be shown to have been "right" and "wrong" when we come to the end of all this - which will no doubt prompt loads of posts here and elsewhere about ""right" was "wrong" really, and vice-versa!) but hope that those who have decided to keep their children away from school in the UK will not eventually be "punished" by the system. In the end, it is after all the responsibility of parents to make sure their kids are safe.

Again, fingers crossed for all affected financially, especially those who see/will see their income rapidly disappearing altogether.


----------



## Student

On a lighter note, and apologies if this has already been posted, or if it offends anyone, I received the following from our daughter in New Zealand. It was obviously written by a Brit, possibly Nigel Farage judging by the comments on our European neighbours, but I thought quite amusing nevertheless.

UK Virus ALERT

The English are feeling the pinch in relation to recent virus threat and have therefore raised their threat level from “Miffed” to “Peeved.” Soon, though, level may be raised yet again to “Irritated” or even “A Bit Cross.”

The English have not been “A Bit Cross” since the blitz in 1940 when tea supplies nearly ran out.

The virus has been re-categorized from “Tiresome” to “A Bloody Nuisance.” The last time the British issued a “Bloody Nuisance” warning level was in 1588, when threatened by the Spanish Armada.

The Scots have raised their threat level from “pineappled Off” to “Let's Get the turnip.” They don't have any other levels. This is the reason they have been used on the front line of the British army for the last 300 years.

The French government announced yesterday that it has raised its alert level from “Run” to “Hide.” The only two higher levels in France are “Collaborate” and “Surrender.” The rise was precipitated by a recent fire that destroyed France's white flag factory, effectively paralyzing the country's military capability.

Italy has increased the alert level from “Shout Loudly and Excitedly” to “Elaborate Military Posturing.” Two more levels remain: “Ineffective Combat Operations” and “Change Sides.”

The Germans have increased their alert state from “Disdainful Arrogance” to “Dress in Uniform and Sing Marching Songs.” They also have two higher levels: “Invade a Neighbour” and “Lose.”

Belgians, on the other hand, are all on holiday as usual; the only threat they are worried about is NATO pulling out of Brussels.

The Spanish are all excited to see their new submarines ready to deploy. These beautifully designed subs have glass bottoms so the new Spanish navy can get a really good look at the old Spanish navy.

Australia, meanwhile, has raised its alert level from “No worries” to “She'll be alright, Mate.” Two more escalation levels remain: “Crikey! I think we'll need to cancel the barbie this weekend!” and “The barbie is cancelled.” So far, no situation has ever warranted use of the final escalation level.

The Russians have said “It’s not us”


----------



## AES

Thanks Student, that raised more than a smile or two, though I must say I've seen it somewhere before (not in the Corona context but something else - can't remember where, why, when). Still good for a chuckle or two though.


----------



## Rorschach

lurker":1l2yegfr said:


> Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
> Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.



My partner is in this situation. As it stands her job cannot be done from home, the work is too sensitive to be done over a domestic internet connection. Weirdly though all their bosses and line managers are working from home because all they need is email and a phone line. When I asked her what is it they do her response was:

"They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."

So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all. I said that if the really big bosses come to realise this it could be the catalyst that causes a big shake up in the system.


----------



## Chris152

Well, our local comp is closing by the end of the week and there'll be cover for children who can't be taken care of at home.
As with sporting fixtures, the govt is behind the curve on this and individuals/ organisations are left to make the right (or wrong) decisions themselves.


----------



## stuartpaul

And the best news so far? - the BBC are only going to show Eastenders twice a week instead of (what appears to be) 6 times a night! If this goes on long enough they'll run out of episodes all together.

That's what I call a result.


----------



## transatlantic

Rorschach":1zib4e2a said:


> lurker":1zib4e2a said:
> 
> 
> 
> Journalists and politicians keep going on about working from home.
> Anybody who can do this is in a relatively unimportant job.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My partner is in this situation. As it stands her job cannot be done from home, the work is too sensitive to be done over a domestic internet connection. Weirdly though all their bosses and line managers are working from home because all they need is email and a phone line. When I asked her what is it they do her response was:
> 
> "They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."
> 
> So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all. I said that if the really big bosses come to realise this it could be the catalyst that causes a big shake up in the system.
Click to expand...


I work for a Games Studio, we'll soon be working from home over a "domestic internet connection". It can be done provided you have suitable security in place.



Rorschach":1zib4e2a said:


> So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all.



:?: :roll: :roll:


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Things that have interested me today: https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03 ... -leak-out/


> The government of Italy, as everyone knows, has locked down the whole country of 60 million people. So how many Italians have died from COV? Even by the standards of the useless and misleading diagnostic tests?
> 
> Ready?
> 
> As far as the Italian Higher Institute of Health knows, at this point:
> 
> Maybe two.
> 
> Maybe.



It's about whether the virus kills, or pre-existing conditions exacerbated by the virus kills. He is claiming it's not the virus on its own.

And Gail Tverberg has this, looking at the economics of shutting down the economy: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/11/i ... more-44860


> Epidemiologists talk about the spread of a virus being stopped at the community immunity level. Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch originally estimated that 40% to 70% of the world’s population would come down with COVID-19 within the first year. He has revised this and now states that it is plausible that 20% to 60% of the world’s population will catch the disease in that timeframe. He also indicates that if the virus cannot be contained, the only way to get it under control is for 50% of the world’s population to become immune to it.



Lots of charts and discussion about the implications of people not working, and the knock-on effects. Hopefully thought inducing.


----------



## lurker

Transatlantic, 
I very much doubt a games studio (please enlighten me as to what this is) deal with classified information.


----------



## AES

Rohrschach, you wrote,


> "They tell all of us how to do our jobs despite not ever having done the job themselves and barely understanding what it is we do. In general they interfere and make things more difficult."



I do sympathise with your partner mate, but please tell her from me that based on my own experience as an employee, this is unfortunately all too common and has nothing to do with the present situation - and the generally speaking, the bigger the company the worse it gets too! I can only imagine the damage that all the "highly qualified consultants" (NOT!) beavering away at home - and co-incidentally, blocking the net for "normal" people who need to order food and medicines - will do to otherwise successful companies!

Ah well, "such is life" ;-)


----------



## Trevanion

lurker":1oe3nyv1 said:


> Transatlantic,
> I very much doubt a games studio (please enlighten me as to what this is) deal with classified information.



You’d be surprised, if you’re working on a top secret large-scale project you really don’t want any information getting out about the plot, etc... just like movies and TV.

If anything the gaming industry has stronger secrecy than our government :lol:


----------



## transatlantic

lurker":2m7gibyw said:


> Transatlantic,
> I very much doubt a games studio (please enlighten me as to what this is) deal with classified information.



So we jumped from sensitive information (which is what I replied to) straight to classified information?


----------



## MusicMan

transatlantic":20dxng2h said:


> lurker":20dxng2h said:
> 
> 
> 
> Transatlantic,
> I very much doubt a games studio (please enlighten me as to what this is) deal with classified information.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So we jumped from sensitive information (which is what I replied to) straight to classified information?
Click to expand...


So far as people working from home are concerned, and their employers, the distinction is meaningless. Of course, the distinction may be important for the country as a whole.


----------



## MikeG.

I was with my buddy on Monday morning for coffee and cake (and a bit of show-and-tell.......workshop stuff). Spent a couple of hours within a couple of metres of him at his house. Tuesday morning first thing he rang me to say he had a temperature, lethargy, and the start of a cough. I've just spoken to his wife, and they're as certain as they can be that he's got it. He's in bed with a fever, cough, lethargy, and a big headache. I guess there's half a chance I won't be posting quite so many photos as I was expecting in the next week or two.


----------



## transatlantic

MikeG.":36ha6uco said:


> I was with my buddy on Monday morning for coffee and cake (and a bit of show-and-tell.......workshop stuff). Spent a couple of hours within a couple of metres of him at his house. Tuesday morning first thing he rang me to say he had a temperature, lethargy, and the start of a cough. I've just spoken to his wife, and they're as certain as they can be that he's got it. He's in bed with a fever, cough, lethargy, and a big headache. I guess there's half a chance I won't be posting quite so many photos as I was expecting in the next week or two.



Try a pint of cow urine mixed with 37 garlic gloves, blended.


----------



## MikeG.

transatlantic":3b8j32m2 said:


> .....Try a pint of cow urine mixed with 37 garlic gloves, blended.



Thanks for that intelligent, helpful, and not unexpected suggestion.


----------



## sammy.se

MikeG.":k4e5q2yx said:


> I was with my buddy on Monday morning for coffee and cake (and a bit of show-and-tell.......workshop stuff). Spent a couple of hours within a couple of metres of him at his house. Tuesday morning first thing he rang me to say he had a temperature, lethargy, and the start of a cough. I've just spoken to his wife, and they're as certain as they can be that he's got it. He's in bed with a fever, cough, lethargy, and a big headache. I guess there's half a chance I won't be posting quite so many photos as I was expecting in the next week or two.


Oh no! Hope you will be OK Mike. You may be lucky and either not been infected, or be one of the people that gets mild symptoms. Take care!!!

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk


----------



## AES

Yup, 2nd that. MikeG. "Just take care", and statistically anyway, it seems that the chances are better than 4:1(?) that IF you get it at all, it'll be "mild". Fingers X'd anyway.


----------



## Selwyn

Do you want to sell that planer thicknesser first mikeg?


----------



## MikeG.

Thanks guys. As soon as I heard of him being ill I found myself imagining I could feel all sorts of symptoms developing. "That cough, it's not the workshop dust, it must be the virus......" and "have I got a headache coming on?" We'll see, I guess.


----------



## MikeG.

Selwyn":s7dsz92r said:


> Do you want to sell that planer thicknesser first mikeg?



:lol: :lol: =D> =D> Awesome!

No, you lot can keep your greedy mits off my tools for a while yet. And as for my bikes.........go whistle.


----------



## MusicMan

Hope you dodge the virus and the gathering vultures for a longgggg time, Mike.


----------



## Rorschach

transatlantic":2qf1k549 said:


> I work for a Games Studio, we'll soon be working from home over a "domestic internet connection". It can be done provided you have suitable security in place.
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":2qf1k549 said:
> 
> 
> 
> So yes, the ones who can work from home are not really doing anything useful at all.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> :?: :roll: :roll:
Click to expand...


Not everyone working from home is useless obviously, but in her case it seems they are.

They might indeed be able to do things with the correct security but it isn't in place and isn't going to be in place anytime soon if it is even possible or sensible to do so. What they use is on a secure intranet system that is purposely not able to be accessed from outside. I can't tell you what it is she does but I can assure you that you would not want that information being compromised.


----------



## Rorschach

TN, regarding the actual number of deaths I would go further. Coronavirus itself won't kill anyone. There are very few (medical) things in this world that kill us outright on their own, like a heart attack for instance. From what I have seen on the news it is pneumonia that is killing people, but CV is the catalyst. It's the same with a lot of cancers, the cancer itself doesn't kill you, some other infection gets you that weakens something else that eventually causes your death. 

All the people that have died so far have been in a vulnerable state it seems, so they would have died of something fairly soon anyway, CV or not.

A friend of mine is in hospital, his ward has just got CV and a chap next to him has tested positive. CV will likely kill him, but he was going to die in the next few months of terminal cancer anyway. Be interesting how many others would also have died in the next year for instance if they ha not caught CV. Of course we will never know.


----------



## Irish Rover

Irish Rover":30i2yexl said:


> I believe it was decided in the COBRA meeting, but not announced yet, that our schools will close next Friday, the week before Easter.
> 
> Patrick Vallance is a distant relative of mine and that has come down the family grapevine.







Irish Rover":30i2yexl said:



> That would work":30i2yexl said:
> 
> 
> 
> Oh dear. More hearsay nonsense!!!!!
> Ha ha government policy surfaces on woodworking forum ... brilliant =D>
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Time will tell...
Click to expand...




I Theng Yaaaw!

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/li ... e-17941662


Try to be a little less disrespectful in future son. You just end up looking silly.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Rorschach":1maj50tz said:


> TN, regarding the actual number of deaths I would go further. Coronavirus itself won't kill anyone. There are very few (medical) things in this world that kill us outright on their own, like a heart attack for instance. From what I have seen on the news it is pneumonia that is killing people, but CV is the catalyst. It's the same with a lot of cancers, the cancer itself doesn't kill you, some other infection gets you that weakens something else that eventually causes your death.
> 
> All the people that have died so far have been in a vulnerable state it seems, so they would have died of something fairly soon anyway, CV or not.
> 
> A friend of mine is in hospital, his ward has just got CV and a chap next to him has tested positive. CV will likely kill him, but he was going to die in the next few months of terminal cancer anyway. Be interesting how many others would also have died in the next year for instance if they ha not caught CV. *Of course we will never know*.



Theoretically, we will know, but only after the event. Influenza deaths are just the same - i.e. It's never the flu that gets you, it's something else. They work out flu deaths by looking at "excess seasonal mortality" (https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... o2017final) which is a purely statistical.

The interesting thing is going to be whether or not this new virus actually shows up in the statistics, or is swamped by the background noise.



> "The number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales in 2017 to 2018 was the highest recorded since the winter of 1975 to 1976. However, peaks like these are not unusual – we have seen more than eight peaks during the last 40 years. It is likely that last winter’s increase was due to the predominant strain of flu, the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine and below-average winter temperatures”.



So they don't really know what the causes are, but make some assumptions.

I have to say that with MikeG's post above, it seems exceptionally rude to be discussing this sort of thing: it is no longer "theoretical". @Mike: don't get ill, but rest assured that anyone who can make, and fit, a staircase will laugh in the face of a mild sniffle. Walk in the park. A doddle. We are counting on you to confirm it is trivial.


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":1vdgi3nz said:


> [email protected]: don't get ill.......



Too late. I'm starting to feel rough. Temperature (sweaty) and a buzzing head. The best I can hope for is that this is just some bug my wife has brought home from school.


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":3vmvsrol said:


> TN, regarding the actual number of deaths I would go further. Coronavirus itself won't kill anyone. There are very few (medical) things in this world that kill us outright on their own.........



You can take this to the Nth degree and say that every human who ever drew breath died of precisely the same thing: lack of oxygen to the brain. I don't think these are really helpful distinctions.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":1k8awaya said:


> Rorschach":1k8awaya said:
> 
> 
> 
> TN, regarding the actual number of deaths I would go further. Coronavirus itself won't kill anyone. There are very few (medical) things in this world that kill us outright on their own.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You can take this to the Nth degree and say that every human who ever drew breath died of precisely the same thing: lack of oxygen to the brain. I don't think these are really helpful distinctions.
Click to expand...


I would disagree there, knowing these things helps us make an informed choice about risk.

If a disease was deadly in it's own right and regardless of age or health it was likely to kill you, then you would be very careful about avoiding contracting it. If however the disease only kills you if you have for instance heart problems, then someone with heart problems can take precautions, but someone without can be more relaxed about it.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":2hztsqxs said:


> Trainee neophyte":2hztsqxs said:
> 
> 
> 
> [email protected]: don't get ill.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Too late. I'm starting to feel rough. Temperature (sweaty) and a buzzing head. The best I can hope for is that this is just some bug my wife has brought home from school.
Click to expand...


In these parts, we say "περαστικά", and "υγεία", in other words, get well soon, and be healthy! 

"Feed a cold, but starve a fever". 

(I'm counting on many more years of patient advice and stern repremanding from you, by the way. )


----------



## Chris152

Good luck Mike - hope it's nothing, and if it's something it passes quickly and easily.


----------



## lurker

MikeG.":39y96h15 said:


> Trainee neophyte":39y96h15 said:
> 
> 
> 
> [email protected]: don't get ill.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Too late. I'm starting to feel rough. Temperature (sweaty) and a buzzing head. The best I can hope for is that this is just some bug my wife has brought home from school.
Click to expand...


You could start a WIP so the rest of us know what we are in for.
Hope it ends up being mild, whatever it is.


----------



## Bm101

Don't forget in these times.

Beauty. 

Keep your heads up and your backs straight. Brace and remember you are here because you are already a survivor. 

https://youtu.be/ZmELS03_4So
Someone post this as a link please!


----------



## lurker

Bm101":14ofwujh said:


> 10.33 am Regent Street. As usual I'm up among the chim er neee pooootttts. Just taken this.
> It's hardly Where's Bloomin' Wally.



You could have made a few quid selling that image to the press.


----------



## MikeG.

Cheers guys.


----------



## doctor Bob

peaky blinders cut for me this afternoon ............. might not get back for 3 months.
I have trimmers if necessary


----------



## Irish Rover

lurker":1ukhxea0 said:


> MikeG.":1ukhxea0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trainee neophyte":1ukhxea0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> [email protected]: don't get ill.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Too late. I'm starting to feel rough. Temperature (sweaty) and a buzzing head. The best I can hope for is that this is just some bug my wife has brought home from school.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> You could start a WIP so the rest of us know what we are in for.
> Hope it ends up being mild, whatever it is.
Click to expand...



And Rule 1 of any WIP

Photos or it never happened...

Hope you feel better soon.


----------



## eezageeza

MikeG.":tup8hq18 said:


> I was with my buddy on Monday morning for coffee and cake (and a bit of show-and-tell.......workshop stuff). Spent a couple of hours within a couple of metres of him at his house. Tuesday morning first thing he rang me to say he had a temperature, lethargy, and the start of a cough. I've just spoken to his wife, and they're as certain as they can be that he's got it. He's in bed with a fever, cough, lethargy, and a big headache. I guess there's half a chance I won't be posting quite so many photos as I was expecting in the next week or two.



The incubation period for Covid 19 is supposed to be 5 - 10 days, so it would've been lightening quick if that's what you've got. But who knows - information is a bit sketchy to say the least.


----------



## MikeG.

I was also with him on Thursday and Friday last week. I helped him with a buggy he's building for his disabled son, and he did a little work on his engineering lathe for me.


----------



## Nelsun

Sh*t Mike, sorry to hear you're likely smitten with it. From a few threads on Twitter I've read from folks getting the sweaty level of things it's been 5 days of being horizontal with no appetite before things take an upwards swing. If your build threads are anything to go by, you're a fairly fit fellow, so here's hoping it's quicker as that for you. Do take it easy. Gid Joiner has a fairly epic porch build series on YouTube I've yet to watch but may kill some down time... or there's always here.


----------



## RogerS

Fingers crossed, Mike.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":2hszh62v said:


> I was also with him on Thursday and Friday last week. I helped him with a buggy he's building for his disabled son, and he did a little work on his engineering lathe for me.


Keep your chin up, stay focussed and look forward to having it behind you. And of course don't forget that it's not a dead cert that you will get it.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I went shopping today. It was ridiculous. Lots of empty shelves. Are hens really going to stop laying?

Well, I was protected.





I got a few looks, a couple of generous smiles, but no-one, I mean no-one, took the Mickey, not even the teenage youths hanging around in the car park. I got a look and one of them pulled his hoodie over his face. But no mockery.

I am taking the view that I shall get it, but I hope to have the mild version and then be protected. If it kills me (and I hope it doesn't, I've not finished my bench nor my dining table yet) then at least my pension worries are over.
Silver linings and all that.


----------



## Nelsun

Go you Steve. That's some next level *ahem* Maskery you've got going there. Da Yoofs were, most likely, on their best behaviour wondering whether you were about to demand their clothes , their boots and their motorcycles.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Here are the rules I am now living under:


> Public gatherings with 10 or more people are strongly discouraged,” those violating the ban will be fined with 1,000 euros per person.
> 
> Urging people to stay home and to avoid contact with people outside their immediate family, Hardalias announced a new series of movement restrictions
> 
> Out-of-home traffic should be limited to the minimum only for very specific reasons and to the extent necessary to serve vital needs only.
> 
> Acceptable exceptions are exclusively for:
> 
> Transition to work
> 
> Visit to the doctor
> 
> Visit a grocery store when no online service
> 
> Go to the post office for absolutely necessary mail
> 
> Go to the bank and the petrol station
> 
> Move to help people in need
> 
> Outdoor exercise individually or with another person while keeping a distance of 1.5 meters.
> 
> Dog walking
> 
> Businesses must operate remotely. Where by the nature of the business this is not possible, businesses will operate with the necessary staff and on rotation.
> 
> A special recommendation to “call centers” is the 2-meter safety distance between employees.



Looks like I'll be taking the dog everywhere.


----------



## Doug B

To be fair Steve I’ve seen a lot stranger things in Kirkby so I’m not surprised by the lack the of response :shock: :lol:


----------



## MikeG.

Steve Maskery":1eqbdw19 said:


> I went shopping today........



Did you wear disposable gloves? Catching this bug through the air is highly unlikely compared to catching it from touching an infected surface.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":3b1xsq8f said:


> Steve Maskery":3b1xsq8f said:
> 
> 
> 
> I went shopping today........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Did you wear disposable gloves? Catching this bug through the air is highly unlikely compared to catching it from touching an infected surface.
Click to expand...


How are you feeling, Mike ?


----------



## MikeG.

Well, I've definitely got something. At the moment I'd say "off colour" rather than ill, thanks Roger. Put it this way......I'm heading out to the workshop in a minute.


----------



## Lons

I hope you and your family are OK Mike, stay safe.


----------



## Steve Maskery

MikeG.":22ais445 said:


> Steve Maskery":22ais445 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I went shopping today........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Did you wear disposable gloves? Catching this bug through the air is highly unlikely compared to catching it from touching an infected surface.
Click to expand...


Yes I did.

S


----------



## beech1948

Steve Maskery":1rh3it6h said:


> I went shopping today. It was ridiculous. Lots of empty shelves. Are hens really going to stop laying?
> 
> Well, I was protected.
> 
> 
> I got a few looks, a couple of generous smiles, but no-one, I mean no-one, took the Mickey, not even the teenage youths hanging around in the car park. I got a look and one of them pulled his hoodie over his face. But no mockery.
> 
> I am taking the view that I shall get it, but I hope to have the mild version and then be protected. If it kills me (and I hope it doesn't, I've not finished my bench nor my dining table yet) then at least my pension worries are over.
> Silver linings and all that.



I went to Tesco today at 05:30 for a 6 am opening. What a joke. The store was basically 50% empty of any purchasable goods with limited piles of stuff available.

By 6 am the store was basically full of people I kid you not. There were quite a few aggressive men around eg pushing a lady and her trolley over. That was sorted by two huge security people who escorted the guy out of the store sans shopping.....well done those guys.

I was there to try to find toilet tissues as we have run out. I just gave up, got some croissants and went home for a cuppa. My wife and I have not stockpiled anything at all other than our normal shopping list.

Are people now so selfish, self centred and utter sh*ts really. Maybe its just those who panic and can not see the wood for the trees ( a woody remark at last)

Al 

Appalled of Crowthorne.


----------



## Droogs

good luck to you Mike and all who get this, lets hope it's not as bad an event as we all fear. 

I do have to say, the quick thinking idea of using a croissant if there is no TP is out there, but I can see how the shape helps with reach :lol:


----------



## transatlantic

I went in the evening yesterday, and was surprised to see just how bad it is. Nothing but junk food really. The bakery section was completely empty other than some Welsh Cakes. What's wrong with Welsh Cakes? :? 

I would have expected that they would restock after closing ready for the morning, but tha doesn't seem to be the case, as even if you go first thing it's the same. Though they tell us they're restocking more than ever? hmmmmm...

Did anyone see the ration boxes that the supermarkets are working on?


----------



## Just4Fun

Trainee neophyte":1hvep7c0 said:


> Here are the rules I am now living under:
> 
> 
> 
> ... Out-of-home traffic should be limited to the minimum only for very specific reasons and to the extent necessary to serve vital needs only.
> 
> Acceptable exceptions are exclusively for:
> 
> ...
> 
> Go to the bank and the petrol station
Click to expand...

The exception for going to the petrol station is an odd one. I don't think I have ever been out with the purpose of going to a petrol station and cannot think why it might be a good idea under present circumstances. I stop at the fuel station when I am making some other journey and the car needs fuel. I never make a special trip to get fuel. Does anyone?



> Looks like I'll be taking the dog everywhere.


You could probably make a fortune renting out the dog to your neighbours.


----------



## Deadeye

MikeG.":3hacmaeq said:


> Well, I've definitely got something. At the moment I'd say "off colour" rather than ill, thanks Roger. Put it this way......I'm heading out to the workshop in a minute.


Hi Mike

Just out of interest, did you have a 'flu jab this season?
Get well soon


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Knowing my luck if I get hospitalised I'll test positive for MRSA again, and get more isolated than normally isolated.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Although my health is generally very good for my age, 68, I've had a cough and sore throat off and on for the last two months, and also itchy eyes. This has been the norm for the last four or five years. I mentioned it to the doctor about three years ago and he thought it was allergy related, possibly tree pollen, although with the wet weather I would have thought that pollen levels were suppressed.

With regards to aggressive shoppers, my wife was telling me that an elderly man locally had something snatched from his hand by a woman in a local shop. :evil: Many of you will probably remember the scenes on toy stores back in the 80s with shoppers fighting over Cabbage Patch Dolls. :roll: 

Nigel.


----------



## MikeG.

Deadeye":oojuqt0y said:


> ......did you have a 'flu jab this season?



I've never had it. I'm not in any of the categories for whom it is recommended.



> Get well soon



Thank you.


----------



## RogerS

Phil Pascoe":bbsvq55g said:


> Knowing my luck if I get hospitalised I'll test positive for MRSA again, and get more isolated than normally isolated.



Btu at least you get your own room !


----------



## RogerS

Nigel Burden":20umsibu said:


> Although my health is generally very good for my age, 68, I've had a cough and sore throat off and on for the last two months, and also itchy eyes. This has been the norm for the last four or five years. I mentioned it to the doctor about three years ago and he thought it was allergy related, possibly tree pollen, although with the wet weather I would have thought that pollen levels were suppressed.
> 
> With regards to aggressive shoppers, my wife was telling me that an elderly man locally had something snatched from his hand by a woman in a local shop. :evil: Many of you will probably remember the scenes on toy stores back in the 80s with shoppers fighting over Cabbage Patch Dolls. :roll:
> 
> Nigel.



What wood are you/have you worked with ?


----------



## Droogs

Just was an interview with an Italian doctor who said that the main complication is interstitial pneumonia and is hitting mainly men over the surprisingly young age of 40

vid here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wohTFdqCurA


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Itchy eyes? Mine itch perpetually - it's blepharitis. A pain in the ar....eyes.


----------



## FatmanG

Droogs":3sx2dmcj said:


> Just was an interview with an Italian doctor who said that the main complication is interstitial pneumonia and is hitting mainly men over the surprisingly young age of 40
> 
> vid here
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wohTFdqCurA



I'm right in the firing line here im proper proper scared, really scared. I went with my wife to Nuffield hospital in central Leeds today, she is having an operation it is going ahead as scheduled but I was only allowed to stay with her 5 minutes. No visiting at all oh and they gave you hand wash and temperature scan as soon as you went in. The consultant told my wife tomorrow is the last day of scheduled ops the beds will become ICU from then on. 
I won't be leaving my home again after I collect her hopefully tomorrow afternoon.
FG


----------



## Droogs

I hope all goes well for you and yours FatmanG, just try to make sure you have plenty of nutritious stuff in for her recovery and just cuddle up and watch movies


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":2z7mq87u said:


> ....The consultant told my wife tomorrow is the last day of scheduled ops the beds will become ICU from then on.
> ...



Oh wow...I wonder if that is across the entire Nuffield estate in which case my sister has just got in under the wire as she's due a hip operation in an hour and a half. I hope they don't cancel as she's been in a lot of pain for a long time.


----------



## FatmanG

I'm not sure but when she rings I will get her to ask if you want Rogers?


----------



## Deadeye

MikeG.":3a7q0t5j said:


> Deadeye":3a7q0t5j said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......did you have a 'flu jab this season?
Click to expand...


I've never had it. I'm not in any of the categories for whom it is recommended.



> Weelll... the NHS would like *everyone* to have it - as this means lower infection rates generally and so lower pressure and fewer infections of vulnerable people. However, they just can't afford to give it to everyone.
> Given that it's only £10 or £15 at Boots to have it done, I'd recommend it for everyone.


----------



## GrahamF

beech1948":236o8qvk said:


> I was there to try to find toilet tissues as we have run out. I just gave up, got some croissants and went home for a cuppa.



At least you shouldn't see the skid marks on a croissant  

I'm amazed by the behaviour in the UK, can't understand the panic. We're in lock-down in Portugal - go to work, food shopping or pharmacy or stay at home, don't even go on the beach. Cafes, restaurants, bars etc. all closed as are non-essential shops. Left the boat and headed up to Lisbon yesterday, motorway from Algarve virtually empty. Food shopping this morning, 1/2 hr queue to get in supermarket but everything is on the shelves and no panic except for one guy with a trolley full of bog rolls and beer, must have found some Boddingtons.

Hopefully fly home on Tuesday on one of the last RyanAir flights out and wondering how we will be able to stock up totally empty fridge and freezer


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Just4Fun":52kacmy5 said:


> Looks like I'll be taking the dog everywhere.
> 
> 
> 
> You could probably make a fortune renting out the dog to your neighbours.
Click to expand...

 Now that is a plan!


----------



## Nigel Burden

RogerS":549c4z8x said:


> Nigel Burden":549c4z8x said:
> 
> 
> 
> Although my health is generally very good for my age, 68, I've had a cough and sore throat off and on for the last two months, and also itchy eyes. This has been the norm for the last four or five years. I mentioned it to the doctor about three years ago and he thought it was allergy related, possibly tree pollen, although with the wet weather I would have thought that pollen levels were suppressed.
> 
> With regards to aggressive shoppers, my wife was telling me that an elderly man locally had something snatched from his hand by a woman in a local shop. :evil: Many of you will probably remember the scenes on toy stores back in the 80s with shoppers fighting over Cabbage Patch Dolls. :roll:
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What wood are you/have you worked with ?
Click to expand...


I don't think it's the wood I'm working with. I seem to get these symptoms every year from about February through to about mid Spring. I have only been working wood for a couple of years using mainly oak or pine and don't seem to have any symptoms after Spring, this is what makes me think that it's probably tree pollen.

Nigel.


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":25md202x said:


> I'm not sure but when she rings I will get her to ask if you want Rogers?



No need, thanks...she's been done. And perky.


----------



## RogerS

GrahamF":1om4wglx said:


> ....
> I'm amazed by the behaviour in the UK, can't understand the panic. ...(



It's because these morons watch a never-ending saga of Eastenders, Coronation Street and whatever other drivel is on that passes for 'soap'...even on Radio 4..The Archers. It's all high-drama and shoutie-shoutie...so Mr and Mrs Thickie think that this is how you lead your life.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. We need a cull. Maybe Covid-19 is the answer...just wish it was selective.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Sounds like my son.

Nigel.


----------



## RogerS

Nigel Burden":1wekieb3 said:


> Sounds like my son.
> 
> Nigel.




As in 'Torch the Dusties' ? :lol:


----------



## Lons

Not just the UK, Police handing out bog rolls at Woolies in Sydney. :roll: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxUq7HzNhCg
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rawls.html


----------



## Trainee neophyte

"A country is only 9 meals from anarchy". 

Or is it 6 rolls of lavatory paper?

A worldwide fear of a shortage, rather than an actual shortage is causing chaos. How much will this be exacerbated by the social media, viral panic over the lack of lavatory paper? Which is the next item to be on the list? Once you start seeing "Supermarkets running out of ..." on Facebook, it will be too late.

I have mentioned before: "he who panics first, panics best". I am smugly fully stocked with everything, but to those who aren't, you may want to get a few extra things in, not because there is a production or supply problem, but because there is a panicking silly person problem. The stock market refers to it as the "thundering herd", and they all claim to be sensible professional types. It is just human nature.


----------



## Just4Fun

Is panic buying really panic buying or sensible precautions?

Most people do not hold large stocks of food in their home, they shop regularly instead. Now we are all being asked to minimise our excursions outside of our homes. Some people are being advised to isolate themselves in their homes for weeks or months and the rest of us have to imagine that we could be in a similar position in the near future. How can any of this be done without laying in extra stocks of food and other consumables? How can this be called panic buying?


----------



## Cheshirechappie

In some parts of the country, quite a few people used to eat out several times a week. Now they're being told not to go to pubs and restaurants. Then all those children released from the tyranny of forced indoctrination will need feeding at lunchtime.

There probably is some panicking going on, but the sudden change in life patterns has shifted food demand from catering to home. There's no shortage of foodstuffs, but the sudden and dramatic change in who buys it and from where has caused major bother.

Mind you, that doesn't really explain the rush for toilet tissue....


----------



## Nigel Burden

Cheshirechappie":2hpsqcs1 said:


> In some parts of the country, quite a few people used to eat out several times a week. Now they're being told not to go to pubs and restaurants. Then all those children released from the tyranny of forced indoctrination will need feeding at lunchtime.
> 
> There probably is some panicking going on, but the sudden change in life patterns has shifted food demand from catering to home. There's no shortage of foodstuffs, but the sudden and dramatic change in who buys it and from where has caused major bother.
> 
> Mind you, that doesn't really explain the rush for toilet tissue....



I'm ok for toilet tissue. A few months ago I bought a large catering pack of kitchen tissue as I use it for wiping my hands in the shed. It's actually as soft as toilet tissue.

Nigel.


----------



## Chris152

Did anyone else watch Channel 4 news last evening? Many people in London pretty much ignoring govt advice, CMO criticising them and Boris pretending all's going to be fine. here's a report in the Mail on youngsters going pubbing and clubbing:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... f7U-fy74pM
It's clear far stricter measures need to be taken and enforced, but it's still all down to the individual to decide.


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":bfw4nidd said:


> Did anyone else watch Channel 4 news last evening? Many people in London pretty much ignoring govt advice, CMO criticising them and Boris pretending all's going to be fine. here's a report in the Mail on youngsters going pubbing and clubbing:
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... f7U-fy74pM
> It's clear far stricter measures need to be taken and enforced, but it's still all down to the individual to decide.



One way for the cull to start, I guess. No sympathy at all if they catch it but if they then infect someone else....pure selfishness.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Trainee neophyte":2ud9uj42 said:


> "A country is only 9 meals from anarchy".



MI5 aren't so optimistic, “four meals away from anarchy” is their maxim.



Chris152":2ud9uj42 said:


> dailymail



:lol: The daily mail is not a credible source for anything.
.


----------



## MikeG.

I'm pretty certain I've got it. I spent yesterday and this morning alternately shivering then sweating, have had a low level headache since Tuesday lunchtime, feel achy and lethargic, and worst of all, my damn eyeballs hurt. Moving them is a real pain. My kidneys ache too. There's something going on in my chest, as a quick breath in leads to a bit of a coughing fit, but at the moment I'm not coughing much. My wife has finally accepted that we're in isolation. Having said all that, I've felt much worse in the past with ordinary winter flu, and the guy I caught it from who is a few days ahead of me is feeling much better already. I'm not up to a proper project in the workshop, but I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up and sort out later, and maybe fiddle with my planer guard.


----------



## Droogs

For those esteemed members of the forum who have to self isolate but live in a rather populated home, here's how

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDvO4clZ6c0

bit of fun really


----------



## transatlantic

Chris152":3ebedn9u said:


> Did anyone else watch Channel 4 news last evening? Many people in London pretty much ignoring govt advice, CMO criticising them and Boris pretending all's going to be fine. here's a report in the Mail on youngsters going pubbing and clubbing:
> https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... f7U-fy74pM
> It's clear far stricter measures need to be taken and enforced, but it's still all down to the individual to decide.



I saw something about British holidaymakers in other countries not obeying the rules put in place of staying at home, but instead, still out getting drunk .... "because it's just the flu" 

..embarassing. Hope they fine the dumbasses


----------



## ScaredyCat

transatlantic":3lqpac2u said:


> I saw something about British holidaymakers in other countries not obeying the rules put in place of staying at home, but instead, still out getting drunk .... "because it's just the flue"
> 
> ..embarassing. Hope they fine the dumbasses



Guess where... Spain. Brits in Spain behaving like brits in Spain.

They should have just arrested them and locked them up for a few days.


p.s. "If it's less than an eighth, it's unmeasurable" - The English Woodworker

That's just over 3mm, definitely measurable!
.


----------



## GrahamF

transatlantic":3ivan5xc said:


> I saw something about British holidaymakers in other countries not obeying the rules put in place of staying at home, but instead, still out getting drunk .... "because it's just the flue"
> 
> ..embarassing. Hope they fine the dumbasses



TV here in Portugal was showing some of the tourist idiots on the Spanish Costas still getting pineappled. Although bars are closed, they get booze from supermarkets. 

Unfortunately, general consensus among the locals is younger generation Brit men leave what few brains they have in the UK and the women leave their knickers behind. (sadly I'm getting too old to verify the latter allegation). As you say, they're an embarrassment. 

Police here are out and about, evidently one warning and then fine if caught out again without valid excuse.


----------



## Nigel Burden

ScaredyCat":95gwikzu said:


> transatlantic":95gwikzu said:
> 
> 
> 
> I saw something about British holidaymakers in other countries not obeying the rules put in place of staying at home, but instead, still out getting drunk .... "because it's just the flue"
> 
> ..embarassing. Hope they fine the dumbasses
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guess where... Spain. Brits in Spain behaving like brits in Spain.
> 
> They should have just arrested them and locked them up for a few days.
> 
> 
> p.s. "If it's less than an eighth, it's unmeasurable" - The English Woodworker
> 
> That's just over 3mm, definitely measurable!
> .
Click to expand...


"it's just the flu"

If they contracted proper flu they wouldn't treat it as a joke.

I had flu forty one years ago when I was 27. I had a raging fever, pounding head, I could barely lift it off the pillow, ached from head to toe, and I couldn't face food for about a week. I lost a stone in weight, which I could ill afford to lose and hadn't felt so ill since I had Polio at the age of 5. I then got a secondary infection. I was off work for two weeks and it took another six weeks before I felt completely well. So no, flu is not a joke.

Nigel.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Having had flu, I thought exactly the same.


----------



## Rorschach

To my knowledge while I have had some bad things I have not had a "real" flu. Not complaining at that. In general I rarely get sick, even when the rest of the household falls ill I am almost always fine and taking care of everyone else.

Glad your friend is feeling better Mike and hope you soon start to go that way as well.


----------



## Bodgers

MikeG.":3utcv7sj said:


> I'm pretty certain I've got it. I spent yesterday and this morning alternately shivering then sweating, have had a low level headache since Tuesday lunchtime, feel achy and lethargic, and worst of all, my damn eyeballs hurt. Moving them is a real pain. My kidneys ache too. There's something going on in my chest, as a quick breath in leads to a bit of a coughing fit, but at the moment I'm not coughing much. My wife has finally accepted that we're in isolation. Having said all that, I've felt much worse in the past with ordinary winter flu, and the guy I caught it from who is a few days ahead of me is feeling much better already. I'm not up to a proper project in the workshop, but I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up and sort out later, and maybe fiddle with my planer guard.


That's good. Not to get too personal, but are you over 50 Mike?


----------



## MikeG.

I'm 59. Fit as a flea and healthy, normally.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

BBC at lunch today are saying that spreading unverified internet health "advice" could kill, and should be stamped out immediately (I'm paraphrasing, roughly). This, coupled with MikeG's sudden onset got me thinking: we are all going to get this virus, possibly/probably, so are we doing anything to boost our immune systems? And this is where the plethora of internet health claims could get us into all sorts of trouble. Vegans claiming meat is murder, yoga instructors saying stretching makes more antibodies, veg farmers claiming lettuce has more vitamins than Bovril etc.

Is there any point, at this point? Locked in your house, hard to exercise, difficult to find fresh food etc. No chance of any sunshine (well, not in UK, anyway), no healthy walk across the moors unless you borrow next door's dog, and they are self-isolating so probably won't notice if you "borrow" it...

I am so much luckier than most in these regards, but I wonder if there are any clever strategies to make your immune system fighting fit. For e.g., potatoes allegedly have more vitamin C than an orange, more potassium than a banana, and generally should be eaten daily (this includes the skin, unfortunately). This is a fact I keep very close, in case someone questions my chip habit. Anyone got any more? Really, the more outlandish the better


----------



## MikeG.

One good strategy for boosting your immune system is to live a life outdoors, to get dirty, to catch the odd bug as you grow up, prepare your own food from raw ingredients, and to not go mad with Dettol and bleach. You know, the way we all used to live, and the way farmers still live. What won't do you any good whatever is to think that eating the latest wonderfood for a week or two will make up for a lifetime cosseted in cotton wool watching a screen.


----------



## transatlantic

I think it's quite easy to exercise in the house, even if you don't have any exercise equipment. You just have to be imaginative. Although I for one have always found exercise indoors/gyms much harder (mentally) than going outdoors. I would much rather go for a jog, than use a treadmill for example.

Might be an idea to pop out and get something like an exercise bike whilst you still can (which you could take into the garden on nice days). Although I would thought people had already thought of that.


----------



## Bm101

MikeG.":2v4mr4gy said:


> I'm pretty certain I've got it. I spent yesterday and this morning alternately shivering then sweating, have had a low level headache since Tuesday lunchtime, feel achy and lethargic, and worst of all, my damn eyeballs hurt. Moving them is a real pain. My kidneys ache too. There's something going on in my chest, as a quick breath in leads to a bit of a coughing fit, but at the moment I'm not coughing much. My wife has finally accepted that we're in isolation. Having said all that, I've felt much worse in the past with ordinary winter flu, and the guy I caught it from who is a few days ahead of me is feeling much better already. I'm not up to a proper project in the workshop, but I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up and sort out later, and maybe fiddle with my planer guard.


Best wishes Mike. Be thinking of you.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Yes, get a stiff bristle brush and brush the carpets, then vacuum them, then clean the windows. There, that's a couple of hours taken up already.

Nigel.


----------



## FatmanG

MikeG.":2udh0dv4 said:


> I'm pretty certain I've got it. I spent yesterday and this morning alternately shivering then sweating, have had a low level headache since Tuesday lunchtime, feel achy and lethargic, and worst of all, my damn eyeballs hurt. Moving them is a real pain. My kidneys ache too. There's zsomething going on in my chest, as a quick breath in leads to a bit of a coughing fit, but at the moment I'm not coughing much. My wife has finally accepted that we're in isolation. Having said all that, I've felt much worse in the past with ordinary winter flu, and the guy I caught it from who is a few days ahead of me is feeling much better already. I'm not up to a proper project in the workshop, but I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up and sort out later, and maybe fiddle with my planer guard.


I hope you feel better soon Mike. Ideally you need to know if you have so does the decision makers to help move forward. 
All the best mate I need to see more WIPs from you


----------



## FatmanG

ScaredyCat":3ffuq7vk said:


> transatlantic":3ffuq7vk said:
> 
> 
> 
> I saw something about British holidaymakers in other countries not obeying the rules put in place of staying at home, but instead, still out getting drunk .... "because it's just the flue"
> 
> ..embarassing. Hope they fine the dumbasses
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Guess where... Spain. Brits in Spain behaving like brits in Spain.
> 
> *They should have just arrested them and locked them up for a few days.*
> 
> That's exactly what's just happened to a bloke on the isle of man, he's facing a 10k fine.
> 
> 
> p.s. "If it's less than an eighth, it's unmeasurable" - The English Woodworker
> 
> That's just over 3mm, definitely measurable!
> .
Click to expand...


----------



## MikeG.

FatmanG":3ep7ou90 said:


> ........Ideally you need to know if you have so does the decision makers to help move forward.



They're not testing in the general populace any more, unless you end up in hospital. They don't even want patients to call their GP or 111. Fair enough too, as they've got enough on their plates with the really sick people, and they need to save the tests (and the time taken to do them) for those who'd really benefit.



> All the best mate I need to see more WIPs from you



Thanks.


----------



## Bm101

transatlantic":3hrvs04z said:


> I think it's quite easy to exercise in the house, even if you don't have any exercise equipment. You just have to be imaginative.


Quite. I've been imagining what it's like going to the gym for years.
 

On another note . I went a chinese supermarket I go to to stock up on some basics if we are to get house bound. Rice, frozen chicken, onions and peppers. Few bits. Accepted I'd have to queue. When they opened the doors (periodically to avoid chaos) the guy in the mask and goggles banged his trolley into my legs in desperation. Apologised. Then did it again. This time I looked at him. He melted a bit. Then he did it again. 
Ooooo k. I turned all the way round.
Sorry sorry!
Calm. Down. Pal. Look!
* I gesture at the tonnes of food on offer. 
No one is starving to death here. 
Sorry sorry! He's visibly panicked.
You need to understand _where_ to recognise threat. Where is the threat right this minute?
Err.. no food? 
No. Me. _I'm_ the threat if you bang that trolley into my leg *One. More. F.......g.* time you wont be needing any food you need teeth to chew.
Calm Down. Be nice. Respect other people. Right? 
Right.
Good. Well done.
I walked off and did my shopping in a calm and rational manner as the old chinese lady on the tills nodded vigorously and beamed at me.


----------



## Jake

MikeG.":3bh1k4by said:


> Fair enough too, as they've got enough on their plates with the really sick people, and they need to save the tests (and the time taken to do them) for those who'd really benefit.



Good luck Mike, hope you get well soon.

Not really, they are failing us all badly by not doing enough testing and not taking it seriously enough (as shown by the duplicitous way they slipped back into mitigation mode yesterday, having realised they left it too late (London) and/or aren't willing to take the steps needed to suppress it (elsewhere). 

Germany is up to 150k daily test capacity. We aren't even doing our 20k capacity. Experience elsewhere is all increasingly suggesting that the key to controlling spread is isolating asymptomatic and very mild cases, who in fact appear to shed more virus than people with worse symptoms.


----------



## Bm101

Just a quick heads up to watch out for email and online scams. Unless it's from uGov or your local surgery be careful. Don't open. The scummers are still out there and doubtless loving every minute of the fear of normal folks as it makes their horrible work easier.


----------



## RickG

If anyone is thinking COVID-19 is like flu, think again. It's actually Pnumonia.
See this film taken in an Italian hospital. This isn't scaremongering. We all need to cut out social interaction. Take this seriously. Stay healthy!

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- ... IpTgp79OIs


----------



## AES

"Get well soon" Mike G take it easy (what a SILLY expression that is, though I use it - too - often!) and "Gute Besserung".

Re another post above, about Italy, we've had quite a bit of it on our TV (neighbouring country ) and believe me it ain't at all funny (medical professionals in tears and literally falling asleep at their posts).

Personally I think it's far too easy to criticise what individual countries are/aren't doing. Doesn't anybody REALLY believe that at least the professionals (forget the politicos of ALL stripes) aren't doing the very very best they can?

And +1 to Bm101 for his checkout queue incident. I had a similar incident this morning at the supermarket checkout with some bloke "jumping all over my back". I had a few words (one great thing about a foreign language is that you learn the "bad" words first!) and soon put that one to bed ("egoistiche Schweize arschloch")! (Don't know if our naughty words filter will let those through - hope so) ;-)


----------



## FatmanG

MikeG.":15q1wjid said:


> FatmanG":15q1wjid said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........Ideally you need to know if you have so does the decision makers to help move forward.
> 
> 
> 
> *
> They're not testing in the general populace any more, *unless you end up in hospital. They don't even want patients to call their GP or 111. Fair enough too, as they've got enough on their plates with the really sick people, and they need to save the tests (and the time taken to do them) for those who'd really benefit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> All the best mate I need to see more WIPs from you
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Thanks.
Click to expand...

I disagree mike its crucial to know whether you've had it or not as a virus your not/unlikely to get it twice so a positive diagnosis will be critical in determining your future behaviour and also for the powers that be to know the numbers so they can make accurate decisions based on fact and maybe we can get back to normal faster.
FG


----------



## GrahamF

We fly back into Manchester on Tuesday all being well and I was expecting all arrivals to be tested but, from what's said above, it appears not. Seems stupid. Rather than have friends pick us up and risk possible infection, we've booked one way car hire with a local drop-off point. I'm told cars are disinfected between hires.


----------



## RogerS

Jake":1oorjuz7 said:


> .....
> Not really, they are failing us all badly by not doing enough testing and not taking it seriously enough (as shown by the duplicitous way they slipped back into mitigation mode yesterday, having realised they left it too late (London) and/or aren't willing to take the steps needed to suppress it (elsewhere).
> .....



Spot on. It's not exactly as if our scientists weren't told about this new virus and just how deadly it was. They were told. 24th January. Very detailed article in The Lancet by the Chinese doctors in Wuhan.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

What did our lot do ? SFA. Probably discounted the article...did a Duke of Edinburgh.


----------



## MikeG.

FatmanG":1ply4ejs said:


> .......I disagree mike its crucial to know whether you've had it or not as a virus your not/unlikely to get it twice so a positive diagnosis will be critical in determining your future behaviour



True, but there isn't anything else going around with the same sequence of symptoms, so I'm pretty safe in assuming I've got it. Yes, it would be nice to know, even if just to persuade my wife that I am actually ill and not just imagining it. 



> and also for the powers that be to know the numbers so they can make accurate decisions based on fact and maybe we can get back to normal faster.
> FG



They know the proportion of the infected populace who end up in hospital, not just from earlier in the outbreak here, but from Italy, France, Germany, and of course China. Obviously they test and count those who get to hospital with it, so it's fairly easy to know pretty precisely how many people have covid 19 at home without ending up in hospital. Apparently we're only a few days away from getting a new (developed here) test for antibodies, which will be able to determine afterwards who actually got infected. Apparently this will be really important because it will show up those who got the virus but showed no symptoms, and this will yield lots of clues for fighting this next time around.


----------



## lurker

Who Are these “they” you people want to do all these extra tests?
The Fairies from the bottom of the garden?
Medics who are concentrating on seriously ill people to take samples instead?
Medical scientists to perform the tests instead of life saving tests?
All other life threatening illnesses have not suddenly gone away.


----------



## MikeG.

AES":1svghyar said:


> .......Doesn't anybody REALLY believe that at least the professionals (forget the politicos of ALL stripes) aren't doing the very very best they can?........



Personally, I think they're all doing a pretty amazing job .......yes, including the politicians.......in really unique circumstances.


----------



## AES

Yeah, you're right MikeG, I stand corrected, the politicos are also doing whatever they believe to be the best. I withdraw that comment. Though in slight mitigation of my earlier comment I have seen A LIITLE bit of political points scoring on BBC TV News (and ours too unfortunately). Definitely an unprecedented situation though.


----------



## Jake

AES":1xohh6hn said:


> . Doesn't anybody REALLY believe that at least the professionals (forget the politicos of ALL stripes) aren't doing the very very best they can?



Mostly so (I am going to except from that the Imperial College team whose completely negligent modelling took us down the reckless path we have taken, and Whitty and Vallance for not being honest about that fiasco after it came to light, and their team for not auditing the modelling adequately), but they are constrained by the politicos. The professionals (outside civil service loyalty) are also rightly screaming at the government here (and in the States) to get their act together and have been for weeks/months.


----------



## MusicMan

MikeG.":3sfnbi9h said:


> I'm pretty certain I've got it. I spent yesterday and this morning alternately shivering then sweating, have had a low level headache since Tuesday lunchtime, feel achy and lethargic, and worst of all, my damn eyeballs hurt. Moving them is a real pain. My kidneys ache too. There's something going on in my chest, as a quick breath in leads to a bit of a coughing fit, but at the moment I'm not coughing much. My wife has finally accepted that we're in isolation. Having said all that, I've felt much worse in the past with ordinary winter flu, and the guy I caught it from who is a few days ahead of me is feeling much better already. I'm not up to a proper project in the workshop, but I'm going to have a bit of a tidy up and sort out later, and maybe fiddle with my planer guard.



All the best for a good recovery, Mike.


----------



## AES

Jake":16iacsnd said:


> AES":16iacsnd said:
> 
> 
> 
> . Doesn't anybody REALLY believe that at least the professionals (forget the politicos of ALL stripes) aren't doing the very very best they can?
Click to expand...


_Mostly so (I am going to except from that the Imperial College team whose completely negligent modelling took us down the reckless path we have taken, and Whitty and Vallance for not being honest about that fiasco after it came to light, and their team for not auditing the modelling adequately)quote]_

REALLY Jake? You're certainly closer to IC than I am (geographically at least) but are you seriously suggesting they deliberately set out just to "get their sums wrong"? Surely it's far more likely that with the best will in the world, and especially with all the "unknown factor Xs" which have to be "best guessed" into the final equations, it's far more likely that someone (several people actually) made some genuine mistakes/miscalculations? 

I've never met anyone who hasn't made some mistakes in his/her professional life, sometimes pretty serious ones. And that includes me!

AND don't forget the time (and no doubt political/time) pressures all these "back room people" MUST have been working under for the last few weeks/months.

As I say, perhaps you KNOW better than I do, but overall, while I'll happily accept that mistakes have been made, and even that some unnecessary delays have maybe resulted, overall I think "we" (i.e. all of us) aren't doing too badly in the face of what is genuinely an unprecedented situation. 


I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.


----------



## FatmanG

lurker":2qrc0o67 said:


> Who Are these “they” you people want to do all these extra tests?
> *The Fairies from the bottom of the garden?*
> Medics who are concentrating on seriously ill people to take samples instead?
> Medical scientists to perform the tests instead of life saving tests?
> All other life threatening illnesses have not suddenly gone away.



Fair point I hadn't thought of that.


----------



## FatmanG

I think the measures I've just heard from Boris et all are incredible, unprecedented and amazing. We are in a big fight and I genuinely wish everyone all the best. 
FG


----------



## Jake

I am going to give the govt credit on the economic side. Today was much more like the package that is going to be needed.


----------



## Trevanion

I don't want to get political, but I'll probably be paying for it for the rest of my life.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

From elsewhere - 
https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/19/1 ... 8-97879283


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Trevanion":12uzo5ir said:


> I don't want to get political, but I'll probably be paying for it for the rest of my life.


We'll ... our ...


----------



## Nigel Burden

My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.

Nigel.


----------



## Lons

I have several members of my family directly in the firing line including one in a London hospital and the last thing we need are so called experts sitting in an armchair criticising the professionals including medical, scientific and MPs who are making decisions under advisement to the best of their ability while under great pressure of time and with precious little information ( relatively ). 
Unfortunately those of us who unlike medical staff have time on our hands to sit at home on google and social media then post biased comments on that need either to shut up or get out into the community and do something to help!

This situation is unprecedented and to see the tw*ts stripping shelves and ignoring social distancing are putting those doctors, nurses and support staff even more in danger if they can't eat properly because while they're at work trying to keep people alive the selfish idiots leave nothing for them to buy when they come off shift exhausted but needing to shop. That video of a nurse in tears says it all and I've seen similar just this week from a very stressed family member.

The most important people to test imo are the medical staff, above even patients coming into hospital because by then it's pretty obvious what they're afflicted with while if medical staff are infected without showing symptoms they'll spread it where you least want it!
For everyone else according to reports you're going to have a good idea you have it when it comes and a test will make absolutely no difference to you and while it does help in understanding the virus it's a case of priorities.

People are basically dickhe*ds! My 92 year old MIL is in a care home, she has numerous health issues as do many of the other residents and the care home quite rightly informed all families that no visitors will be allowed or residents to leave the premises unless a medical emergency. The home set up a website with pics and videos showing what they're doing to care for and entertain the old folk but they've been inundated with abusive 'phone calls and visitors demanding access! Beggars belief. :roll:


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Trevanion":x3jgxzu1 said:


> I don't want to get political, but I'll probably be paying for it for the rest of my life.



I see what you're saying, and sympathise. But 'the rest of their life' could be very short indeed for an awful lot of vulnerable people (and not so vulnerable) if they contract it.

Is this the right approach or the wrong one? Don't know. Don't suppose anyone knows. Don't think we'll know until years after the event when we can all (hopefully all of us) look back with twenty-twenty hindsight.

But .... all pubs, clubs and restaurants closing their doors until further notice.

Strewth. Just ..... strewth.


----------



## Jake

Trevanion":1ak8t8im said:


> I don't want to get political, but I'll probably be paying for it for the rest of my life.



You'd be paying for it the rest of your life anyway if the government just sat back and let the economy wreck itself catastrophically. They aren't doing it for fun.

Plus the projected alternative is at least 1.5m dead.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Trevanion":2spfj6ed said:


> I don't want to get political, but I'll probably be paying for it for the rest of my life.



Just to put thing in perspective.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... ed_Kingdom

Nigel.


----------



## MikeG.

Nigel Burden":1vncdk00 said:


> My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.
> 
> Nigel.



Damn. Sorry to hear this, and hope she's OK.


----------



## Nigel Burden

MikeG.":1bzk2akc said:


> Nigel Burden":1bzk2akc said:
> 
> 
> 
> My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Damn. Sorry to hear this, and hope she's OK.
Click to expand...

 
Thank's Mike.

I think she's probably ok. She went in to work at for 4pm. The ambulance was called at 5pm. Fortunately she hadn't had contact wit the resident, but, she'd had contact with one of the carers who had.

Being selfish, this means that I might have to go shopping with daughter and son tomorrow and I'm prone to trolley rage. :twisted: At least it'll be Waitrose not Tesco or Asda.  

Nigel.


----------



## Bm101

Let's have a bit of leeway on this thread. Its well mannered but these are remarkable times for all of us. Some patience and understanding for others posting that might be taking some time to take it all in. God knows I am re examining my world pov. I have gone from a 6 day week to I don't even know if I'm being paid. Nevermindd how the world will look in 3 months. I'm not alone but one of millions. All certainty has been removed and it will hit some hard. Keep strong and remember the long term and that others might not have your experience of life or order or will.

Be nice people. Best regards as always.
Chris


----------



## Jake

AES":zpmwpyky said:


> REALLY Jake? You're certainly closer to IC than I am (geographically at least) but are you seriously suggesting they deliberately set out just to "get their sums wrong"?



I said they were grossly negligent, not deliberately setting out to massacre people.



> Surely it's far more likely that with the best will in the world, and especially with all the "unknown factor Xs" which have to be "best guessed" into the final equations, it's far more likely that someone (several people actually) made some genuine mistakes/miscalculations?



Yes, what they did was adapt their pandemic flu model and change various assumptions to reflect what they knew about this coronavirus. What they failed to do, and have admitted not doing, was to change the load on the NHS to reflect the demands placed by this coronavirus on general hospital and ICU wards. Instead, they left the NHS demand assumptions at the same % as used for viral pneumonia in their original pandemic flu model. As a consequence, and based on the projections on those assumptions, they reached the conclusion that the best strategy was to let the virus spread, and then incrementally up the social distancing to manage the load on the NHS so it was never overwhelmed.

There was then a worldwide outcry from epidemiologists, including the WHO and pretty much everyone not bound in with the UK govt policy that the policy was nuts, demanding to see the model. Boris announced the modelling would be released. 10 days later, the Imperial College paper was released (in place of the model itself, which remains undisclosed) in which they stated that their original recommended strategy would have led to 250k deaths but was not viable. In an interview with the FT Neil Ferguson (now in isolation, the lead Professor of the IC team) admitted this was because they had used the viral pneumonia NHS load statistics, which did not reflect any COVID-19 data, it being a much worse disease as we are seeing with our own eyes. In the paper, they admit that the policy they had advocated (and the government had followed) of mitigation by allowing the epidemic to spread but mitigating how fast could not be achieved and with the correct NHS demand load based on COVID-19 rather than viral pneumonia resulted in the NHS surge capacity being exceeded by over 800%.

So no, I do not believe those people did their best. The modelling was negligent. It was clearly negligently audited. 

They embarked on a plan of relatively light social intervention to favour economics and freedom, at the cost of 250k planned deaths. OK, that is a trade off any public health initiative has to adopt. But, they did so on the basis of favouring a model from Imperial College (there were others, some by people who were screaming at the govt that their strategy was insanely destructive) which gave them a figure they thought was acceptable based on an obviously and seriously incorrect assumption. And clearly did not audit the modelling to pick up the carried over false flu assumption. And it would have killed c1.5m instead of 250k, because they were assuming the death rate would be ~1% because the NHS would be within capacity. If the NHS gets overwhelmed (as it will do in London in 7-10 days, and is likely to do elsewhere in 3-4 weeks given the lack of seriousness of the interventions to date) the death toll from the experience of Wuhan and Lombardy is likely to be 6% of confirmed cases rather than 1%, ie ~1.5m dead.

So no, I do not think everyone has done their professional best. The absence of effort in the containment phase was driven by the assumption that the epidemic could be managed for herd immunity within NHS capacity. That assumption led to a nonchalance about the initial spread of the virus - it was quite desirable to set up immunity among schoolchildren for example - because they thought they could throttle it down later. All that was based on the completely negligent failure to update health service load to reflect actual experience with this coronavirus in all the other countries ahead of us. 



> I've never met anyone who hasn't made some mistakes in his/her professional life, sometimes pretty serious ones. And that includes me!



True. Doesn't mean you and I have not been negligent. I haven't personally been this negligent.



> AND don't forget the time (and no doubt political/time) pressures all these "back room people" MUST have been working under for the last few weeks/months.



The Imperial College team was sloppy and arrogant. The government then took it easy and ignored alarm bells from 360 degrees, because they liked the answer the IC model gave and didn't audit it.



> As I say, perhaps you KNOW better than I do, but overall, while I'll happily accept that mistakes have been made, and even that some unnecessary delays have maybe resulted, overall I think "we" (i.e. all of us) aren't doing too badly in the face of what is genuinely an unprecedented situation.
> 
> 
> I think we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.



OK. It helps to understand what happened though. This makes Grenfell Towers public policy failings look like a mere nothing. It's OK for someone on the Imperial College not to update that critical assumption - that sort of thing happens all the time - it's up to the rest of the team to test, retest and re-re-test it before recommending govt action. It's then on the government to take all the models it is presented with and audit them all with microscopic detail before deciding on a course of action. The government set its strategy in February. On being forced under public pressure to publish the model, it took 10 days for Imperial College to realise their catastrophic error and then more time consumingly negotiate all the twisty corridors as to how to deal with that publicly. It wasn't hard to find.

I have never seen a worse bit of governance.


----------



## Lons

Nigel Burden":39yk2h86 said:


> My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.
> 
> Nigel.



That's not good Nigel, hope she's ok and that she's appreciated looking after those who most need it.


----------



## Lons

Can I ask where you get those facts from Jake?


----------



## Jake

The Imperial College paper itself (I provided a link earlier in this thread) and an FT interview with the lead professor of the Imperial College team (Neil Ferguson). The Imperial College paper is a highly defensively worded and carefully negotiated mea culpa (I do this dung for a living, I recognise it like my own blood).


----------



## Nigel Burden

Lons":3uzpzlvm said:


> Nigel Burden":3uzpzlvm said:
> 
> 
> 
> My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's not good Nigel, hope she's ok and that she's appreciated looking after those who most need it.
Click to expand...


She seems to think that it's probably ok, but it's just a precaution. She has very good employers, and I think that generally the efforts made by the staff are appreciated.

Nigel.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Nigel Burden":17p63b8c said:


> MikeG.":17p63b8c said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nigel Burden":17p63b8c said:
> 
> 
> 
> My wife has just come in from work, (kitchen staff in a nursing home), rang the door bell, I opened the door to be greeted with, "Don't touch me, I'm in isolation." Apparently one of the residents is showing symptoms despite visits being stopped last week. She hasn't been near this resident, but the owner has put her into isolation as a precaution at home until further notice, possibly as early as tomorrow once they know the results of the test on the resident. Some staff will be in isolation in the home.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Damn. Sorry to hear this, and hope she's OK.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Thank's Mike.
> 
> I think she's probably ok. She went in to work at for 4pm. The ambulance was called at 5pm. Fortunately she hadn't had contact wit the resident, but, she'd had contact with one of the carers who had.
> 
> Being selfish, this means that I might have to go shopping with daughter and son tomorrow and I'm prone to trolley rage. :twisted: At least it'll be Waitrose not Tesco or Asda.
> 
> Nigel.
Click to expand...


Supermarkets are open 24/7. Go at a silly time, and not only will you be more likely to find stock, but you won't have any company to rage at. A little lost sleep is trivial in the grand scheme of things. 4:00am would be prime shopping time. It works for my mother, anyway.


----------



## RogerS

Jake

Superb analysis =D> 

I hope you cc'd it to the Guardian. It borders on negligence.


----------



## FatmanG

I hope and pray that they find a cure and fast. We all have opinions re others but we have to believe everyone is doing there best. I hope we can get through this and our front line men and women keep safe they and their counterparts around the world are the true heroes


----------



## Jake

RogerS":5jb37zyd said:


> It borders on negligence.



It is very clearly beyond mere negligence, that is a given. The question for me is whether it was gross negligence or recklessness.

I want to make it clear this is beyond political affiliation or orientation. This is a competence issue. I'd be as severe on any government of any hue which pursued such a catastrophically stupidly flawed and dangerous policy (especially in the face of world expert opinion). 

They risked all our lives. They will cost some of us our lives.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Tn, supermarkets are currently opening from 08.00 to 20.00hrs. The first hour is reserved for the over seventies or key workers. I don't think it will make much difference what time I go.

Nigel.


----------



## AES

OK Jake, I bow to your obviously "superior" (i.e. better informed) knowledge - NO sarcasm intended.

Is this (in your informed opinion) a(nother) case of someone "getting to the top of the tree by BS alone"? (I've seen such things before in my own area, more than once unfortunately).

And Yes, I've made some professional mistakes in the past, but I take your point, never negligent OR reckless (hand on heart).


----------



## Jake

AES":3dpvgrfg said:


> OK Jake, I bow to your obviously "superior" (i.e. better informed) knowledge - NO sarcasm intended.
> 
> Is this (in your informed opinion) a(nother) case of someone "getting to the top of the tree by BS alone"? (I've seen such things before in my own area, more than once unfortunately).



No I have no doubt that Neil Ferguson and team are extremely expert and normally very proficient. I think it was purely an error, but there must have been some sloppiness in process not to catch it early on within the team, and then a huge amount of arrogance to stand by it for weeks and weeks when the whole world was saying it was miles out of line with scientific consensus without reviewing it to see why that was (as they eventually did when forced to publish the model). 



> And Yes, I've made some professional mistakes in the past, but I take your point, never negligent OR reckless (hand on heart).



The person who has worked and never done anything negligent has yet to be invented, usually the consequences do not matter thankfully for everyone. 

That's why team work and multiple layers of audit are important at the level of this kind of decision making (from which I am thankfully absented). The overall error is absolutely unforgivable in my view, but the blame for that is spread across the modelling team, the decision making to prefer that flawed model over other more pessimistic (but more realistic) models, and the failure of any audit. The dishonesty as to how it has subsequently been dealt with is revolting and discreditable on all involved.

Yes I am incandescent with anger at this. It will kill lots of people who would have lived longer, because you cannot now turn the clock back to a contain and suppress policy like that of Singapore or South Korea. They deliberately let it begin to rip on the basis of the negligent decision to rely on the flawed IC modelling.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Hugely disturbing .

China seem to have stemmed the spread of the virus with very few new cases. They have had a reported 81000 cases of which 71000 have recovered. Of the unresolved 10000, 4400 have a mild condition, 2100 are serious or critical. 3300 have died. This suggests a mortality rate of around 4% overall.

Bear in mind China has a much younger population than Italy or UK.

Italy is lagging China in terms of social distancing etc. They have had 47000 cases although only 5100 have recovered. The remainder - 35200 are reported as mild cases, 2700 serious or critical, 4000 died. 

Italy has the oldest population in Europe but it is too early to form clear conclusions on mortality rate - currently 8% approx.

So it seeems very likely that the ~1% mortality is seriously adrift. But there are a lot of questions for which answers must be becoming clearer but not yet published:

- how many cases are unreported/asypmtomatic
- what proportion of TOTAL cases are hospitalised
- what proportion of those hospitalised end up in ITU
- how many recover whilst in ITU

Whether the problems in the UK model that was being used were negligent, or reasonable at the time in the absence of better data I don't know. But I am convinced that the potential for major social disruption is very high if this updated information is not communicated appropriately.

Best of luck to all - self isolation now seems a more attractive strategy than taking a risk on social interaction!


----------



## Andy Kev.

Don't forget that China is a totalitarian system and that therefore facts are a political commodity to be traded for the party's advantage: they initially went through the usual process of trying to suppress the facts and we have to hope that they are now telling the truth about it being almost over and done with for them. FWIW I can see no reason for them being dishonest about the latter.

However, it's unlikely that we will ever be able to finally say with confidence what the extent of the outbreak in China was. You also have to remember that they were able to and did indeed employ the full extent of the powers of a totalitarian state in dealing with the matter, once they had woken up to what they were up against.

Western govts. will always be up against the matter of acting with the consent of the people. This inevitably slows down or leads to sub-optimal efficiency of response. The response also relies on sensible actions on the part of members of the public. As soon as you get folk with an "I'm alright Jack" attitude, things start to go awry. Incidentally the Danes seem to have come to the perfect solution for people buying up the supermarkets. The most symptomatic product was bottles of hand wash, so the first bottle still costs around a fiver but the second bottle costs around 150 quid. It should not require a govt. edict for supermarkets to start charging 200 quid for the second pack of bog rolls etc. etc.

Finally, though I'm normally the last person on earth to cut politicians and assorted experts a bit of slack, I do so in this matter. They can only react to the situation they are presented with and the information that is available. I suspect that any response (partially and to varying degrees) fails due to the public not playing its part (although it will be ages until we know whether or not that is the case with this virus). 

Come what may, the govt. will do a review and develop a plan for the next viral crisis which is not a bad idea if you consider that a seriously dangerous bug is a theoretical possibility. To be an armchair general in this area is easy and although some might find it amusing, it is rarely wise. I would suggest waiting for all the facts to emerge once it is all over before making pronouncements. It might also be an idea to compare and contrast your own experiences with the febrile ravings in the media and the twattersphere. "I had to stay at home and not go out much, so I got a bit bored", is not exactly an account of terrible hardship and suffering.

It's worth considering Jake's fairly damning analysis in the light of the above. Does he have all the facts? Was he privy to the reasoning of the government? Are there people putting stories out in the internet which look credible but are ill-informed or simply maliciously wrong? The very ugly nature of politics is already playing a role and we know that the first casualty of that will be the truth. There will be people deliberately trying to paint the govt. in the worst possible light. And remember that the nation's biggest political football - the NHS - is central to this. Incidentally, were it to be shown that the NHS is an inferior system to e.g. the German system for dealing with such matters, will there be as loud demands for binning the former? You see what I mean. Therefore my suggestion to calm down and wait until we are in possession of all the facts. BTW I do not accuse Jake of maliciousness or dishonesty but rather of falling into a very obvious trap albeit with the best of motivations.

I think that the real shock is that we are experiencing what happens when our modern, make believe lifestyles come up against the ancient reality of a bit of DNA or RNA wrapped up in a protein coat.


----------



## Chris152

Thanks for writing that summary, Jake. There had to be some reason for the UK govt steps being so out of line (weak) compared with everyone else. Errors and arrogance are a dangerous mix.


----------



## MikeG.

For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":2kbxiwgz said:


> For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.


I couldn't agree more. The scientists, under great pressure, got the ball rolling and the government acted. Once assumptions were shown to be false, remedial action was taken.

I think that as a culture we have taken on the idea that "experts" always get everything right. They usually do ... eventually ... but a lot of models get discarded on the way. The problem with the current situation is that mistakes can lead to great personal tragedy for families as opposed to say, a new choke point for traffic being inadvertently created. Unfortunately there is no magic way of getting around the usual error-strewn path.


----------



## Chris152

I'm not sure what your point is - to defend the government for taking bad advice (in spite of the quite different, more stringent actions they could see other governments had already been taking), or to defend that part of the scientific community which developed the bad advice (in spite of existing research and data developed internationally that conflicted and was used to criticise the bad advice). Or both.


----------



## MikeG.

Both, Chris. I see both of those things as a positive for the reasons I gave. Science worked, in that it self-corrected. The government did what it should in following the advice. Imagine the situation where government picks and chooses what advice to follow in circumstances like this....nightmare. By the way, it's perfectly proper for government to question the advice it's given. "Are you sure?" would have been asked behind closed doors an awful lot, and that's absolutely right and proper. What would be fundamentally wrong would be "thanks scientists, but we know best on this one...".


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":1fc7h4oo said:


> ..... BTW I do not accuse Jake of maliciousness or dishonesty but _rather of falling into a very obvious trap _albeit with the best of motivations.
> ..



That is utter BS.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":26wk0e8i said:


> For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.



No....totally wrong. Government took the Imperial College model and didn't bother to check it or question the key assumptions. How can you try and sweep away the monumental cock-up that Imperial made with a simple 'Well, that's science for you folks, shrugs shoulders".

It is NOT science working the way it should. Ever heard of 'peer review' ? Clearly that key element of science escaped those at Imperial College and the Govt.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":1jk0nny2 said:


> MikeG.":1jk0nny2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.
> 
> 
> 
> I couldn't agree more. The scientists, under great pressure, got the ball rolling and the government acted. Once assumptions were shown to be false, remedial action was taken.
> 
> I think that as a culture we have taken on the idea that "experts" always get everything right. They usually do ... eventually ... but a lot of models get discarded on the way. The problem with the current situation is that mistakes can lead to great personal tragedy for families as opposed to say, a new choke point for traffic being inadvertently created. Unfortunately there is no magic way of getting around the usual error-strewn path.
Click to expand...


Never heard of 'peer review' then ? That IS what good science is all about. A 'peer review' is your magic way. It's not rocket-science. I can't understand why you are defending both Imperial and the Govt.


----------



## MikeG.

Settle down Roger. It certainly _is_ the way science works: others check your published work. That is the self correcting nature of the beast. Mistakes are made, and even some fabrication once in a blue moon. That doesn't survive the repeatability phase of the scientific method, which is the very essence of the process. You seem to be on a mission to blame someone. I'm sitting here sweating with a throbbing head, supreme lethargy and a horrible cough. If one of us had reason to be clutching around for someone to blame, it's me, surely. I'm a bit disappointed that you can't be a little more understanding about this situation. Two months ago this disease didn't exist.


----------



## SammyQ

I'm with Jake and RogerS. Peer review is a fundamental, rock bottom, can't-get-past-it aspect of Science. The central point here is IC used flawed data: historic 'flu figures instead of contemporary C19. Are you serious? 

Sam


----------



## TFrench

Not sure if anyone has seen it, but Johns Hopkins University has a very good map showing how many cases in each country, recovery rates etc. It really knocks it home to see how few cases Russia is reporting - either they've escaped it or they're telling porkies...

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk


----------



## MikeG.

RogerS":3pqebhrt said:


> ......Never heard of 'peer review' then ? That IS what good science is all about. A 'peer review' is your magic way. It's not rocket-science. I can't understand why you are defending both Imperial and the Govt.



Peer review checks your methods, and checks that your conclusions match your results. It also checks that your methods are correct. It most certainly does not try to replicate your results. That's for others, post-publication. My daughter has published 8 or 10 papers and writes peer reviews for others. Don't ascribe magic to a very mundane method-checking process.

You also have to differentiate between scientific advice to government and published papers. Was the Imperial College stuff published in a scientific journal? I don't think it was. It therefore wasn't subject to the peer review process. Even so, its flaws were very quickly picked up by the rest of the scientific community, and corrected. No-one is defending Imperial College. We're defending the scientific method, though, which corrected the error in no time flat.


----------



## MikeG.

SammyQ":3lzipxb2 said:


> I'm with Jake and RogerS. Peer review is a fundamental, rock bottom, can't-get-past-it aspect of Science. The central point here is IC used flawed data: historic 'flu figures instead of contemporary C19. Are you serious?
> 
> Sam



Can you link to the peer-reviewed journal in which the work was published prior to being given to the government?

If you can't, then this is a red herring.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":2vhrs70x said:


> Both, Chris. I see both of those things as a positive for the reasons I gave. Science worked, in that it self-corrected. The government did what it should in following the advice.


I'd say both govt and the scientists developing the advice failed in one very basic way - comparing their position to that taken by others. It's the first step in the development of knowledge in any existent discipline. If you find significant differences, to find the cause of those differences. Clearly in some circumstances that can take years - but in this case, if what Jake's written is correct, the error was simple and should have been identified easily. It wasn't and while we should have been taking stringent measures to contain the virus, we were washing our hands and singing songs.


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":394k39kb said:


> .....It's the first step in the development of knowledge in any existent discipline......



An existent discipline? We've had a global pandemic of this nature recently, have we? As I said, a couple of months ago this disease didn't exist.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":2w6zkzkg said:


> Chris152":2w6zkzkg said:
> 
> 
> 
> .....It's the first step in the development of knowledge in any existent discipline......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> An existent discipline? We've had a global pandemic of this nature recently, have we? As I said, a couple of months ago this disease didn't exist.
Click to expand...

Fair enough - but in the space of a couple of months enough evidence existed to pick up that error specifically, and there was already evidence from other countries affected that the measures that the bad advice gave rise to would be inadequate.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":lhs7fs7r said:



> I'm not sure what your point is - to defend the government for taking bad advice (in spite of the quite different, more stringent actions they could see other governments had already been taking), or to defend that part of the scientific community which developed the bad advice (in spite of existing research and data developed internationally that conflicted and was used to criticise the bad advice). Or both.


Your first point doesn't hold up if you think about it. Nobody's going to come up to the government and say, "We've got some bad advice for you here". And the govt. isn't going to reply, "Oh thanks, we'll take that". The advice will have been made and taken in good faith.

It's also probably true that at the time decisions were taken, it was not clear that what other govts. were doing would necessarily be more effective. Obviously the most guaranteed effective method would be instant, complete shutdown of the country, suspension of flights etc. However, can you imagine how the people who are complaining now would have reacted to that? (I'm afraid I'm implying here that there are people who complain come what may about anything which does not chime with their expectations/wishes.)

To err is human. Are we seriously expecting our govt. to work to super human standards? They should be better than the layman, certainly but one would have to be mad to think that one had a reasonable expectation of them getting everything right. Willfull negligence is unacceptable but I can see no reason to believe that we are dealing with that in this crisis.

There's also the matter of how govt./crisis management works. Read any detailed account of a period of govt. activity and you'll see what a role coincidence, chance, cock-up and pure luck play. If you want a light-hearted and entertaining example of this, I would recommend _All Out War_ by TIm Shipman. If you can eliminate those factors, I'd vote for you.


----------



## Andy Kev.

RogerS":35pcsak0 said:


> Andy Kev.":35pcsak0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG.":35pcsak0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.
> 
> 
> 
> I couldn't agree more. The scientists, under great pressure, got the ball rolling and the government acted. Once assumptions were shown to be false, remedial action was taken.
> 
> I think that as a culture we have taken on the idea that "experts" always get everything right. They usually do ... eventually ... but a lot of models get discarded on the way. The problem with the current situation is that mistakes can lead to great personal tragedy for families as opposed to say, a new choke point for traffic being inadvertently created. Unfortunately there is no magic way of getting around the usual error-strewn path.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Never heard of 'peer review' then ? That IS what good science is all about. A 'peer review' is your magic way. It's not rocket-science. I can't understand why you are defending both Imperial and the Govt.
Click to expand...


Tell us all: how long in your experience does the peer review process take? Is it something to which decisions taken urgently under great time pressure are routinely subjected?

Perhaps you could enlighten us.


----------



## SammyQ

Mike, the model itself has not been published, but the IC paper has been referred to a few times. 

Sam


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":syzuqjjl said:


> MikeG.":syzuqjjl said:
> 
> 
> 
> Both, Chris. I see both of those things as a positive for the reasons I gave. Science worked, in that it self-corrected. The government did what it should in following the advice.
> 
> 
> 
> I'd say both govt and the scientists developing the advice failed in one very basic way - comparing their position to that taken by others. It's the first step in the development of knowledge in any existent discipline. If you find significant differences, to find the cause of those differences. Clearly in some circumstances that can take years - but in this case, if what Jake's written is correct, the error was simple and should have been identified easily. It wasn't and while we should have been taking stringent measures to contain the virus, we were washing our hands and singing songs.
Click to expand...

I understand the point you're making there but comparison with other positions only becomes valid once we have the final results. Take for instance Italy: given that it is culturally common for three generations of a family to live in the same house, the relative failure (so far) of their response does not mean that precisely that response might not be ideal for another society. One could go on ad infinitum.

The science of the virus is universal. The art of the governmental responses to its effects must by definition be local.


----------



## Droogs

TFrench":3573vxyf said:


> Not sure if anyone has seen it, but Johns Hopkins University has a very good map showing how many cases in each country, recovery rates etc. It really knocks it home to see how few cases Russia is reporting - either they've escaped it or they're telling porkies...
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk



As 1 of my Electronic Warfare instructors used to say the Oxford Dictionary definition of "Lies/liar" was "A Russian"


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":1u74xmn2 said:


> .........but in the space of a couple of months enough evidence existed to pick up that error specifically.....



Indeed. That's precisely what happened.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Droogs":2owq4taa said:


> TFrench":2owq4taa said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure if anyone has seen it, but Johns Hopkins University has a very good map showing how many cases in each country, recovery rates etc. It really knocks it home to see how few cases Russia is reporting - either they've escaped it or they're telling porkies...
> 
> Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As 1 of my Electronic Warfare instructors used to say the Oxford Dictionary definition of "Lies/liar" was "A Russian"
Click to expand...

14, 13 or 9?

Me: Green Slime but I fled the Dark Side for the sunny uplands after 13.


----------



## Jake

MikeG.":fisgi2ap said:


> For me, this "cock up" has been very revealing, and gratifying. It has made it abundantly clear that the government has followed the scientific advice it was given, scrupulously. That is very much a good thing. The science was initially flawed (well, the computer modelling), but the scientific community quickly corrected the error. This is science working the way it should. Thank goodness we live here and not under Trump, where science is adjusted for political reasons and scientists are routinely ignored.



There were multiple different teams with different models feeding into SAGE. A decision was made to rely on the flawed one, which, as the others are unlikely to have made the same sloppy mistake, must have been a decision based on the optimistic strategy it suggested, as an outlier which went against the epidemiological consensus. Not to audit the model properly in those circumstances is unforgivably sloppy and not "how science works". This was not some complicated science, it was one of the key critical assumptions in the model on which the whole strategy rested (ie what the NHS load would be, that needed to be managed in a mitigate policy).

There is no positive pro-government spin you can put on this. It was a catastrophic mistake which cannot now be reversed, which is why after 1 day of talking about suppression when the Imperial College paper was released they are now back to talking about compressing the peak and shifting it sideways (ie mitigation not suppression). Except now they know even Imperial College's modelling says they cannot achieve that, so it is just headlong into NHS capacity being massively exceeded, with no good science base for their policy.


----------



## Jake

MikeG.":2uqom4f4 said:


> Imagine the situation where government picks and chooses what advice to follow in circumstances like this....nightmare.



It did this. It preferred the negligent model over others because it liked the low intervention strategy. The latter preference is understandable and laudable even, but if you are picking an outlier non-consensus view on which to base policy there is an obvious duty to question why the model you like is producing results not reproduced by other modelling.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2148i652 said:


> The advice will have been made and taken in good faith.



Good faith/bad faith is an honesty test, not a test of competence.


----------



## Droogs

Andy Kev.":2u3hrukd said:


> 14, 13 or 9?
> 
> Me: Green Slime but I fled the Dark Side for the sunny uplands after 13.



Instructor was from 14, I was 244 at the time (RTG) and then 30 and then became a SysTech and went to 242 and then went to 2btn 2RGR in Borneo and did some stuff at Blandford and then a lot of stuff with other agencies. All in all 17 years of keeping Jimmy happy


----------



## Andy Kev.

Droogs":2qzo7y7i said:


> Andy Kev.":2qzo7y7i said:
> 
> 
> 
> 14, 13 or 9?
> 
> Me: Green Slime but I fled the Dark Side for the sunny uplands after 13.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Instructor was from 14, I was 244 at the time RTG and then 30 and then Become an SysTech and went to 242 and then went to 2btn 2RGR and did some stuff at Blandford and then a lot of stuff with other agencies. All in all 17 years of keeping Jimmy happy
Click to expand...

Our paths would never have crossed, then.


----------



## MikeG.

We aren't going to agree, Jake, which is fine.

-

I'm into day 4 or 5 now, and it's the worst day yet. Thankfully my eyeballs don't feel like they're on fire anymore, though. I have a nice little half hour job planned on my planer guard*, but at the moment I just can't be bothered. It's too much of a hassle even to walk to the workshop.

*....and a thread on modified American swing-away guards vs the European model guards.


----------



## transatlantic

MikeG.":2vje1omh said:


> We aren't going to agree, Jake, which is fine.
> 
> -
> 
> I'm into day 4 or 5 now, and it's the worst day yet. Thankfully my eyeballs don't feel like they're on fire anymore, though. I have a nice little half hour job planned on my planer guard*, but at the moment I just can't be bothered. It's too much of a hassle even to walk to the workshop.
> 
> *....and a thread on modified American swing-away guards vs the European model guards.



If you're feeling at all unwell, best to stick to the hand tools. A lapse of concentration (more likely when you're not quite with it) could result in a serious injury. Not something you want at this point in time.


----------



## MikeG.

transatlantic":1irigimd said:


> ........If you're feeling at all unwell, best to stick to the hand tools. A lapse of concentration (more likely when you're not quite with it) could result in a serious injury. Not something you want at this point in time.



This is about hand tools. A drill and a coping saw. That's all. More importantly, though, is gathering the strength to even get out to the workshop in the first place.


----------



## ColeyS1

Wonder if it'll effect our utilities ? Powercut is a great start to the day !






Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## Lons

It has to affect everything Coley as the crisis deepens and crucial staff get sick.

Not important but I needed to speak to BT by 'phone yesterday and the service crashed 3 times before I got through and I've been trying for 4 days to pause / suspend my Sky sports subscription via the website which has proved impossible as it's overwhelmed, I eventually got through by 'phone this morning.

As an aside, I got an Axminster gift card for a birthday present a few days ago and made the trip to the local store yesterday planning to take the appropriate cautionary action but there was little need as during the hour and a half or so I was in store there were only 3 other customers. They will find it very difficult to survive on that basis for long.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Whether or not the use of a flawed model was due to negligence (on whose part?), a lack of data, or unrealistic assumptions is somewhat unimportant right now.

Of more importance is whether the actions now being taken are correct. Finding someone to blame is a common reaction but not necessarily very constructive.

We can always have an enquiry when the heat is off to determine what, if anything, was done wrong (a) to learn for the future, and (b) identify the culprit (although I am not sure there is any real point). 

But I am drawn to the thought that it is far better to reward (not necessarily financial) those who find solutions, than blame those who got it wrong. The latter simply encourages defensive behaviours.


----------



## Chris152

Terry - Somerset":v4udu22d said:


> Of more importance is whether the actions now being taken are correct.


I agree - and it's fundamentally important that we can trust those making decisions for us to do the right thing for us. Both competence and priorities come into that question.


----------



## Lons

My sister in law sent me this link from Australia about a week ago, it's a series of reports linked together but is eye opening and more than a little disturbing, especially when they looked at the wet markets and their role in this, past and future outbreaks and the views of one of the world leading experts.
I've just watched it again and need to go for a lie down. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7nZ4mw4mXw

Also a sky news report in a hospital in Italy which they need to show on very large screens placed in areas where people are still congregating socially.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_J60fQr ... SsQ0vtK3mY

as someone who's reasonably healthy but turned 71 this week and has a family with respiratory issues am I worried? You bet I am, I'm sh*t scared for my family!


----------



## FatmanG

Interesting reading this thread with contributions from clearly some members far more intelligent than I. As of yet were not overwhelmed in our NHS or other key areas are we? Or am I mistaken? If not isn't it too early to blame anyone and we should be all as a nation even myself who is right in the firing line as I'm down regularly with pneumonia doing our bit to help fight this. I vent like everyone else but to seek out blame for this is not the right time. Furthermore aren't we all to blame in someway with the lack of care for the planet.
FG


----------



## Jake

FatmanG":2z3exsl2 said:


> As of yet were not overwhelmed in our NHS or other key areas are we?



Not yet, London is getting towards it. We might have a week, perhaps 10 days at a push. It isn't stoppable now, the levers just don't work that fast.

I think we're at least 2-3 weeks ahead of the rest of the UK, so there is more chance if the government gets its act together (but like this thread, it's full of ostrich and sand behaviour - Boris apparently values liberty very highly even if its valued in deaths, hence the slow incremental approach).


----------



## HappyHacker

Terry - Somerset":1z528r5x said:


> Whether or not the use of a flawed model was due to negligence (on whose part?), a lack of data, or unrealistic assumptions is somewhat unimportant right now.
> 
> Of more importance is whether the actions now being taken are correct. Finding someone to blame is a common reaction but not necessarily very constructive.
> 
> We can always have an enquiry when the heat is off to determine what, if anything, was done wrong (a) to learn for the future, and (b) identify the culprit (although I am not sure there is any real point).
> 
> But I am drawn to the thought that it is far better to reward (not necessarily financial) those who find solutions, than blame those who got it wrong. The latter simply encourages defensive behaviours.



The usual problem with enquiries is that with the benefit of being able to gather all the facts and spend time discussing all the options they often blame the people who had to make decisions quickly with limited information.

When an organisation receives criticism from an enquiry the result is almost always lessons will be learnt so the same mistakes cannot happen again. When what they mean is we will put procedures in place so that if it happens again it will be the fault of someone who did not follow our now complex and unworkable procedures.

I worked for a short time for a company that had a blame culture. With the result that if you did something whether it worked or not you got the blame. So no one wanted to do anything and spent a lot of time ensuring they could not get the blame for anything. I did not last very long.

Totally agree with your last comment.


----------



## Lons

Anyone who really does need to lay the blame somewhere should look long and hard at why we have the virus, where it originated and what they did to suppress the information and hide it from the world.

Ok a journalists position so it has to be taken in that context but sobering non the less and the fact China has the style of government who can build hospitals in weeks rather than years is worth absolutely ziltch!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycrqXJYf1SU


----------



## Phil Pascoe

But we mustn't call it the Chinese virus, as the Donald found out.


----------



## GrahamF

Chris152":18p0iqth said:


> Terry - Somerset":18p0iqth said:
> 
> 
> 
> Of more importance is whether the actions now being taken are correct.
> 
> 
> 
> I agree - and it's fundamentally important that we can trust those making decisions for us to do the right thing for us. Both competence and priorities come into that question.
Click to expand...


Yes, we have to have trust but, in reality, the average MP has no more medical or crisis management experience than the general population. 

Instead of working together, the opposition just sits there blaming the government for actions when, if they were in power, they would have most likely received exactly the same advice from the same so-called experts and taken the same initial course of inaction.

In reality, the virus is the minor problem facing us, yes a few of us will die and others will be ill but, the long term consequential problems will create much hardship, it's already started. A news item last night showed some foreign hotel workers who lost their jobs without notice but they also lost the accommodation which came with the job and were turned out on the streets.

Those of us who are retired 70+ may be at greater risk of snuffing it but, most of us have paid the mortgages off by now and don't have to worry about jobs and bringing up young children so, in my mind, we're the lucky ones.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Yes, that was shameful. Iirc it was a place owned by Britannia, who have a pretty awful reputation anyway.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":12r4ko6o said:


> RogerS":12r4ko6o said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":12r4ko6o said:
> 
> 
> 
> I couldn't agree more. The scientists, under great pressure, got the ball rolling and the government acted. Once assumptions were shown to be false, remedial action was taken.
> 
> I think that as a culture we have taken on the idea that "experts" always get everything right. They usually do ... eventually ... but a lot of models get discarded on the way. The problem with the current situation is that mistakes can lead to great personal tragedy for families as opposed to say, a new choke point for traffic being inadvertently created. Unfortunately there is no magic way of getting around the usual error-strewn path.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Never heard of 'peer review' then ? That IS what good science is all about. A 'peer review' is your magic way. It's not rocket-science. I can't understand why you are defending both Imperial and the Govt.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Tell us all: how long in your experience does the peer review process take? Is it something to which decisions taken urgently under great time pressure are routinely subjected?
> 
> Perhaps you could enlighten us.
Click to expand...


How long does it take someone to have a look at a spreadsheet ? Not long.


----------



## MikeG.

That isn't peer review, Roger.


----------



## Andy Kev.

RogerS":18s5jecl said:


> How long does it take someone to have a look at a spreadsheet ? Not long.


Right, so we've established that you simply don't know what the term "peer review" means, as it is not what you maintained earlier, nor is it anything to do with spreadsheets. It also doesn't mean peer in the sense of having a squint at something.

So why bandy a word about and attribute to it what you think it might mean?

Meanwhile, I've completely forgotten what the original point was that you were trying to make.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":1zbz4202 said:


> That isn't peer review, Roger.



You and Andy Kev both know very well what I mean. 

It's not rocket science for someone else to take a look at the model and the key parameters. I don't care what you call it.

And it's neither a question of them starting with a blank sheet of paper. The maths is well known...here's a starting point for you

They even took their own existing model ! It wouldn't have taken much to ask someone else to review the new results.


----------



## Chris152

Reviewing the methodology used in any piece of research certainly forms part of peer review in any discipline. If the methodology includes use of inappropriate data as the basis for what follows, it fails before the review has got started.
So what Roger describes is part of peer review.


----------



## Jake

I don't know why you are being attacked about peer review Roger when it was someone else's daft analogy.

They had several modelling teams, and the strategy they went for based on the Imperial College one was very controversial when they went for it. Not later. At the time. There were reportedly bitter arguments about it in SAGE - we now know why. There is no reasonable way of governing which does not include a thorough audit of the model you intend to rely on in those circumstances (even if there is consensus, it should be done when potentially millions of lives hang on it). It is so easy to mess up an Excel model, either by simple coding error or by messing up an implicit or explicit assumption (not exhaustive list, but the ones that spring to mind from personal experience). The first takes dog work and testing, the second is harder to spot, the third is the easiest to check. This was in that third category, and it was grievously and obviously out of line with reality. I made the point before that when the furore reached the stage that Johnson had to concede the modelling would be published, it took 10 days for the Imperial College paper to be published with simultaneous apparent U-turn in policy to be announced. There is a big lead time for the latter bits of choreography. They spotted it in the first few days once they thought it was going to be published and exposed to scrutiny. No need for any "peer review", they knew themselves once they held themselves to a publicly accountable standard.

I find it interesting how many people want to defend this. I can understand the sympathy for people making hard decisions and difficult trade offs. This isn't that though, it is simply basic competence, and shockingly absent in a decision that will affect millions and may now take tens or hundreds of thousands of lives that might have been saved with a decision taken with proper care.


----------



## That would work

Too much vindictiveness in a word.


----------



## MikeG.

Before we chase off down this rabbit hole, this wasn't published science. It was advice from scientists to government. Published papers can take 10 or 12 weeks in the peer review process, and then await the next publication slot. Many of these journals publish once a month. If Roger really is suggesting that the government waited 4 months before receiving their advice then I think he may just have missed the urgency of this situation.


----------



## Chris152

Peer review isn't an absolute that refers only to publication in professional journals - it takes place all the time in research, takes different forms and may have nothing to do with publication.


----------



## MikeG.

My daughter has been doing research for the last 5 or 6 years, and has never heard of peer review other than for publication. Her field is ethology. Maybe your field is different, and if you are right I bow to your superior knowledge. 

Fundamentally, when we are in the midst of a crisis I find it disturbing that people focus on the irrelevant. It's gone. It's history. We can learn the lessons afterwards. Right now there are tens of thousands of lives at stake and this chatter isn't contributing at all. Actually, it's worse than that. Constant sniping at the decisions being taken in good faith can only lead to people having less faith in government and specialist advice with the result that fewer people would do what they're supposed to do...........and that would endanger lives. What if I said "oh right, they're all idiots, those so-called experts and politicians. I'm going to ignore their advice and carry on life as normal"? How many people would die as a result? There are people who behave like that. This irritating nit picking is actually endangering life, and should, in my view, stop.


----------



## Lons

MikeG.":1vcr33bx said:


> Fundamentally, when we are in the midst of a crisis I find it disturbing that people focus on the irrelevant. It's gone. It's history. We can learn the lessons afterwards. Right now there are tens of thousands of lives at stake and this chatter isn't contributing at all. Actually, it's worse than that. Constant sniping at the decisions being taken in good faith can only lead to people having less faith in government and specialist advice with the result that fewer people would do what they're supposed to do...........and that would endanger lives. What if I said "oh right, they're all idiots, those so-called experts and politicians. I'm going to ignore their advice and carry on life as normal"? How many people would die as a result? There are people who behave like that. This irritating nit picking is actually endangering life, and should, in my view, stop.



=D> =D>


----------



## Chris152

I've not followed every post here Mike, but I wouldn't say calling attention to fundamental flaws in the science that led to inadequate steps being taken by government to protect us is nit picking. As for disregarding govt advice - my response has been to take more stringent steps than advised by the government in order to protect myself and my family. And I think that's what anyone should be doing, given the evidence that the government has failed to lock things down quickly enough to protect us. Any one who thinks they needn't bother would have completely missed the point.


----------



## Jake

MikeG.":354itg6x said:


> My daughter has been doing research for the last 5 or 6 years, and has never heard of peer review other than for publication. Her field is ethology. Maybe your field is different, and if you are right I bow to your superior knowledge.
> 
> Fundamentally, when we are in the midst of a crisis I find it disturbing that people focus on the irrelevant. It's gone. It's history. We can learn the lessons afterwards. Right now there are tens of thousands of lives at stake and this chatter isn't contributing at all. Actually, it's worse than that. Constant sniping at the decisions being taken in good faith can only lead to people having less faith in government and specialist advice with the result that fewer people would do what they're supposed to do...........and that would endanger lives. What if I said "oh right, they're all idiots, those so-called experts and politicians. I'm going to ignore their advice and carry on life as normal"? How many people would die as a result? There are people who behave like that. This irritating nit picking is actually endangering life, and should, in my view, stop.



The problem is that people should be ignoring government advice because it is negligently lax - they should be doing more, but the government will not admit it has messed up. So stuff your soporific attempt at loftiness.

I hope you get well, I hope we all stay well, but the latter is not going to happen for a lot of people because a few took a lackadaisical approach and continue to do so.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.

Nigel.


----------



## FatmanG

Jake":2vw51ubr said:


> MikeG.":2vw51ubr said:
> 
> 
> 
> My daughter has been doing research for the last 5 or 6 years, and has never heard of peer review other than for publication. Her field is ethology. Maybe your field is different, and if you are right I bow to your superior knowledge.
> 
> Fundamentally, when we are in the midst of a crisis I find it disturbing that people focus on the irrelevant. It's gone. It's history. We can learn the lessons afterwards. Right now there are tens of thousands of lives at stake and this chatter isn't contributing at all. Actually, it's worse than that. Constant sniping at the decisions being taken in good faith can only lead to people having less faith in government and specialist advice with the result that fewer people would do what they're supposed to do...........and that would endanger lives. What if I said "oh right, they're all idiots, those so-called experts and politicians. I'm going to ignore their advice and carry on life as normal"? How many people would die as a result? There are people who behave like that. This irritating nit picking is actually endangering life, and should, in my view, stop.
Click to expand...


The problem is that people should be ignoring government advice because it is negligently lax - they should be doing more, but the government will not admit it has messed up. So stuff your soporific attempt at loftiness.

I hope you get well, I hope we all stay well, *but the latter is not going to happen for a lot of people because a few took a lackadaisical approach and continue to do so.[/quote*]

Jake you are clearly a very intelligent, articulate and passionate man, are you a politician? Do you know how govt decision making works? Why is the rest of europe in such a state? Are all politicians throughout europe guilty of gross negligence. What is the answer now?
FG


----------



## MikeG.

Jake, I'm not going to argue with you. I've posted with you for many years and I respect you (and Roger). I deeply resent the arguments you won't stop running with here, so I'm not going to feed them any more. I'll report my progress, but I'm not interacting with you on this subject any more.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":2z3zbcer said:


> Peer review isn't an absolute that refers only to publication in professional journals - it takes place all the time in research, takes different forms and may have nothing to do with publication.


I must say that I too have never heard of it taking place outside professional journals.

But whether or not that is the case, peer review consists by definition of handing over what you have done or in the case in question what you have decided to do, to independent experts for their evaluation.

Now - and this is quite a serious point as opposed to point scoring - how much time do you think a government and its expert advisors - acting under the most high pressure conditions i.e. expected to select one course of action from a choice of many for immediate implementation - has for the luxury of handing over their plan to independent experts for their view, bearing in mind that they too by extension would also be under possibly even more pressure to come up with a view pretty damned quick?

What we have had on here (and I suppose that this is back to point scoring) is a bloke(s) who has heard the term "peer review" once, got a vague but incorrect idea of what it means and then tries to use the concept as a stick with which to beat the government.

This all seems to me to add up to reasons for evaluating the government's performance once the whole thing is done and dusted. We simply cannot come to a sensible conclusion at the moment. Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Nigel Burden":2dwke8dt said:


> Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.
> 
> Nigel.


That's barely believable. What sort of education have these youths had to make them think that that is in any way acceptable? What is there appreciation of real life?

I trust somebody called the police as a bit of police brutality would do them no end of good.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":10ika902 said:


> Chris152":10ika902 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Peer review isn't an absolute that refers only to publication in professional journals - it takes place all the time in research, takes different forms and may have nothing to do with publication.
> 
> 
> 
> I must say that I too have never heard of it taking place outside professional journals.
> 
> But whether or not that is the case, peer review consists by definition of handing over what you have done or in the case in question what you have decided to do, to independent experts for their evaluation.
> 
> Now - and this is quite a serious point as opposed to point scoring - how much time do you think a government and its expert advisors - acting under the most high pressure conditions i.e. expected to select one course of action from a choice of many for immediate implementation - has for the luxury of handing over their plan to independent experts for their view, bearing in mind that they too by extension would also be under possibly even more pressure to come up with a view pretty damned quick?
> 
> What we have had on here (and I suppose that this is back to point scoring) is a bloke(s) who has heard the term "peer review" once, got a vague but incorrect idea of what it means and then tries to use the concept as a stick with which to beat the government.
> 
> This all seems to me to add up to reasons for evaluating the government's performance once the whole thing is done and dusted. We simply cannot come to a sensible conclusion at the moment. Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.
Click to expand...


Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.


----------



## Steve Maskery

Andy Kev.":39h4irrp said:


> That's barely believable.



Sadly, living in the sort of neighbourhood that I do, I have no difficulty in believing that at all.

I'm glad that you live somewhere rather more salubrious.

Mind you, when I'm out in my helmet, I don't get any flack, not even from the local cognoscenti.


----------



## Jake

Knowing you to be a carefully researching fellow, Steve, I'm sure those are P3 filters!


----------



## Jake

RogerS":1g3bmqf9 said:


> Andy Kev.":1g3bmqf9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.
Click to expand...


Roger you are just to the left of Genghis, and this guy thinks you are being politically partisan by criticising a Tory government decision for being made on negligent science without any decent audit.

PMSL all the rest of the night.


----------



## Steve Maskery

If I'm honest Jake, I can't remember what they are. But it stops me coughing on anyone else, it stops them coughing on my face (though not on my hands unless I am wearing disposable gloves - I did a couple of days ago and forgot today), and it also stops me touching my face. That is really hard to avoid when you rely on contact lenses for your sight.

It's an imperfect solution, but, I hope, a lot better than nothing.

As I said earlier, I expect that I shall get it sooner or later. At one time I wold have said "Bring it on", but these days I actually want to carry on and do a few more things before The Eventual Day. Life is much better than it was a few years ago.

So this is an attempt at beating the odds. It may work, it may not.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I am also in contact with my friend and publisher in Italy. Francesco lives near Fumicino airport, so nominally Rome.
I pointed out, as I think I have done here, that it is no good having all this time on our hands to spend in the workshop if we cannot go out and buy any wood. He said his 2 local merchants are shut and he had to drive half an hour to buy some oak which was double the price he was used to paying - 2200EUR m^3.
The shape of things to come.


----------



## Andy Kev.

RogerS":nhahzyai said:


> Andy Kev.":nhahzyai said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris152":nhahzyai said:
> 
> 
> 
> Peer review isn't an absolute that refers only to publication in professional journals - it takes place all the time in research, takes different forms and may have nothing to do with publication.
> 
> 
> 
> I must say that I too have never heard of it taking place outside professional journals.
> 
> But whether or not that is the case, peer review consists by definition of handing over what you have done or in the case in question what you have decided to do, to independent experts for their evaluation.
> 
> Now - and this is quite a serious point as opposed to point scoring - how much time do you think a government and its expert advisors - acting under the most high pressure conditions i.e. expected to select one course of action from a choice of many for immediate implementation - has for the luxury of handing over their plan to independent experts for their view, bearing in mind that they too by extension would also be under possibly even more pressure to come up with a view pretty damned quick?
> 
> What we have had on here (and I suppose that this is back to point scoring) is a bloke(s) who has heard the term "peer review" once, got a vague but incorrect idea of what it means and then tries to use the concept as a stick with which to beat the government.
> 
> This all seems to me to add up to reasons for evaluating the government's performance once the whole thing is done and dusted. We simply cannot come to a sensible conclusion at the moment. Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.
Click to expand...

  :mrgreen:  :mrgreen:


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":2kez5fo0 said:


> RogerS":2kez5fo0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":2kez5fo0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Mind you, if we have a political axe to grind, we were perfectly capable of coming to a 100% watertight conclusion before the problem even landed on the relevant desks in No 10.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Just keep on digging. I'm not bothering to reply to you after this.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Roger you are just to the left of Genghis, and this guy thinks you are being politically partisan by criticising a Tory government decision for being made on negligent science without any decent audit.
> 
> PMSL all the rest of the night.
Click to expand...


You've just illustrated what I mean by the political angle. This whole thing transcends or should transcend that.


----------



## Jake

Steve Maskery":3mh6z9ax said:


> It's an imperfect solution, but, I hope, a lot better than nothing.



It's brilliant you have the DGAF to wear it out. Semi-seriously, with P3s and some isopropyl for inter-wear washdown you'd probably have a set-up a Covid ICU unit would be envious of.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2zocdzns said:


> Jake":2zocdzns said:
> 
> 
> 
> Roger you are just to the left of Genghis, and this guy thinks you are being politically partisan by criticising a Tory government decision for being made on negligent science without any decent audit.
> 
> PMSL all the rest of the night.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You've just illustrated what I mean by the political angle. This whole thing transcends or should transcend that.
Click to expand...


No I really have not. But yes, it should. And for Roger it clearly does. You, I don't think so. Me, I'm not being tested in the same way, but if this was any other flavour of government I'd be as incensed. Bad and negligent governance is bad and negligent, objections to that should as you say transcend party or political allegiance. There used to be standards about this sort of thing, you know. Basic expectations of people taking public office.


----------



## Steve Maskery

Jake":33dp0jbk said:


> It's brilliant you have the DGAF to wear it out. Semi-seriously, with P3s and some isopropyl for inter-wear washdown you'd probably have a set-up a Covid ICU unit would be envious of.



I had to Google DGAF, but yes, you are right. 

S


----------



## MusicMan

Let me give an example of what is involved in peer review. I've had my papers peer reviewed 150 or so times and have reviewed others a similar number. I don't publish much now but I published a large paper in a strongly-referred journal a couple of years ago. It was also on modelling, in this case acoustical resonance modelling on musical wind instruments. After the modelling was done, my co-authors and I spent about six months writing the paper, in this case mainly me writing and the others criticising and amending. Then we sent it off to the journal. They allowed us to suggest reviewers who knew what they were talking about but I don't know if they chose them or others. They were completely independent of our institutions, not even in the same country. After about six weeks we got the report which (as is common) said "accepted subject to satisfying the reviewers on the following matters". Some of these were fair enough and we accepted immediately. In others, we argued because we felt the reviewers had missed something important, and in the end they accepted our arguments. In one case they said 'you should have used model X rather than model Y for this step' and it took about two months of heavy mathematics and computer simulation for us to show that model X was no more accurate but was a lot slower. Of course the assumptions were specified and checked. In the end the paper was accepted. Did the process make it a better paper? Yes, definitely. Did it confirm that our methodology was sound? No, but it showed that other experts could not pick holes in it. Did it prove that our paper was "correct"? No, that is for the debate in the scientific literature. Did it repeat and check the calculations? No, that's not the purpose (and it would be a couple of years of work). Did it provide all the information need for someone to repeat our modelling? Yes. Peer review does not guarantee accuracy or truth but it's the best tool we have.

Now clearly this process could not be gone through in the case of the COVID modelling. It would have been more like a draft report issued before one started to write the paper. I have no certain knowledge of other models except that the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (who have been studying epidemics since the days of the Empire, 1899 in fact) were strongly in agreement with the 'herd immunity' model and are also represented on government committees. You can read their reports on their website. I suspect that Imperial have been scapegoated somewhat. And I very much doubt that it was something that could have been checked by a glance at a spreadsheet. But I don't know, and nor does anybody else who has not been privy to the whole story.

Publication is the main area, but there is one other, less common, use of the term 'peer review', which is in judging applications for research grants, major prizes and the reviews of university research. Again, this must be independent, objective and it is normal for at least three and sometimes up to ten views to be sought on a particular case. I still do a lot of these.

When your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail. A lawyer will look to apportion blame and negligence. A politician will think of the effect on the audience. A scientist will try to review the evidence and arguments. It is not that the jury is out at the moment, the court has not even been assembled. Of course there must be the mother of all investigations when this is over, but the job NOW is to survive and to help others to survive. I don't think that social media level arguments about blame are at all useful. And I am far from a supporter of the present government.

MikeG you are very much in our thoughts.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I spoke to some friends in Spain this morning. They have been in lockdown for a week. They are not allowed out of their home (trailer caravan type of thingy). Police stop every vehicle they see. EUR600 fine if you don't have a good excuse for being on the road.

There is a supermarket on site. One customer at a time, gloves and sanitiser at the door. You are not allowed in until the previous customer has left.

Someone is going to make one hell of a blockbuster when this is finally over.


----------



## Jake

MusicMan":3ee65c6g said:


> ... musical wind instruments. …
> 
> When your only tool is a hammer then every problem looks like a nail. A lawyer will look to apportion blame and negligence. A politician will think of the effect on the audience. A scientist will try to review the evidence and arguments.



Nice framing but what we actually do is the last of those (that bit is privy to our clients and shapes the real advice about merits), then we action publicly the middle (this is called advocacy, you do what you can to help the client's position), then the judges do the first of those things. You'd have a rubbish lawyer if they were not laser focused on the evidence and the arguments.


----------



## Lons

Nigel Burden":10e2biwu said:


> Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.Nigel.



I find that if true to be horrific and borders on physical assault.
People like that, in fact every ignorant person blatantly walking around the streets without very good reason should be restrained and forced to listen to recordings like the one I've linked.
This one reduced my wife and daughter to tears and both were experienced nurses who have worked in A&E and ITU 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQD4B_hmdvo


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":19ytiexy said:


> No I really have not. But yes, it should. And for Roger it clearly does. You, I don't think so. Me, I'm not being tested in the same way, but if this was any other flavour of government I'd be as incensed. Bad and negligent governance is bad and negligent, objections to that should as you say transcend party or political allegiance. There used to be standards about this sort of thing, you know. Basic expectations of people taking public office.


If it were any other flavour of government I would still be saying that we have to see how things pan out before we judge. I do not believe that any government would deliberately make sub-optimal choices in a matter like this. However, it is inevitable that some sub-optimal choices will be made. The best view of these is with hindsight.

Were I PM my instincts would have been to take a fairly radically different course, once I'd spoken to the experts of course but I doubt that I would have produced an anything like perfect solution. And I do know that I'm not in possession of enough information to slam the performance of this government and that they have not taken any fundamentally bad decisions - based on what I currently (don't) know.


----------



## FatmanG

Andy Kev.":39hi78kl said:


> Nigel Burden":39hi78kl said:
> 
> 
> 
> Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> That's barely believable. What sort of education have these youths had to make them think that that is in any way acceptable? What is there appreciation of real life?
> 
> I trust somebody called the police as a bit of police brutality would do them no end of good.
Click to expand...


I'm afraid that is the norm from the poverty stricken inner city areas. The area where I live parts of which I just would never go to again under no circumstance.


----------



## MikeG.

Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the expected time for the onset of pneumonia, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon. 

I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.


----------



## FatmanG

MikeG.":10rlhuxl said:


> Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. *This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all*. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the *expected time for the onset of pneumonia*, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon.
> 
> I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.



I've had pneumonia so many times I've lost count I'm not joking either!! Pneumonia is fluid on the lungs, its like drowning but the water is inside. The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it


----------



## FatmanG

FatmanG":2zkjxhu6 said:


> MikeG.":2zkjxhu6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Here's the run down of symptoms etc. I've had a headache since Tuesday lunchtime, but I didn't start to feel unwell until Wednesday morning, when I developed a temperature and lethargy, and my kidneys and eye balls started hurting. Still not too bad, though. Thursday I started coughing, my eyes got really bad, I still had the temperature, with lots of aches and muscle stiffness. Momentary bouts of dizziness and a supreme lethargy I can't begin to describe. Friday the same, with a throbbing sort of dizziness/ light-headedness which made moving around unpleasant. *This was probably the worst day so far. Yesterday (Saturday), the cough diminished. I went hours between bouts of coughing. It's the weirdest cough...completely dry, and seems to be doing nothing at all*. It feels like there is one tiny hair somewhere in your throat. The dizziness abated, and I got out to the workshop for half an hour, but I was still very lethargic. Today, my head still hurts, and I still have a temperature, but I feel much perkier, less lethargic. I've only had one bout of coughing. I'm optimistic that I've turned the corner, but well aware that the next couple of days are the *expected time for the onset of pneumonia*, if it's to happen. If I can get through to about Tuesday much as I am now then I should stay out of hospital, I reckon.
> 
> I'll be clear. I've felt much worse with ordinary seasonal flu, which I've had 2 or 3 times. However, that's never lasted as long as this. So far this is unpleasant rather than awful. My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms. At the moment she is 100%. I am extremely fit and healthy ordinarily, thank goodness, but if you're not well, or you're elderly (say 80+), then even what I've had so far would probably have hospitalised you. Do whatever you can to not catch this, and if you do catch it, do whatever you can to keep it to yourself.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I've had pneumonia so many times I've lost count I'm not joking either!! Pneumonia is fluid on the lungs, its like drowning but the water is inside. The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it
Click to expand...

Edit. Also with pneumonia when you cough you get terrible sharp stabbing in your back/lungs


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Steve Maskery":1dldnysp said:


> I had to Google DGAF, but yes, you are right.
> S



What?? You've never seen "Dilligaf"? on an HGV or a biker's leathers?


----------



## MikeG.

FatmanG":1n7046ah said:


> ...... The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it



The slight counter to that is that people report getting better between phases of this disease. Some say they got over it completely, then suddenly went down with pneumonia.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I rather hope having had a pneumonia jab, it might mitigate that. Got to hope for something.


----------



## toolsntat

MikeG and FatmanG a public thank you for making me so much more aware of this information that I have either missed being broadcast or distributed.
Cheers Andy


----------



## FatmanG

MikeG.":1im3tvcb said:


> FatmanG":1im3tvcb said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...... The cause of the pneumonia is the only difference here and the great news for you Mike is you are not getting it. If you were then the cough and fever would only get worse much worse. its downhill rapid once it starts mate, your on the mend I'd bet my life savings on it
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The slight counter to that is that people report getting better between phases of this disease. Some say they got over it completely, then suddenly went down with pneumonia.
Click to expand...

You have more info than I do. Tbh I've not heard an account from anyone only what's reported. Any links Mike I'd be interested to hear accounts from the horses mouth so to speak.
FG


----------



## MikeG.

As you can imagine, I've sat on my bum for the last 3 or 4 days doing nothing, so I've seen plenty of Youtube clips. No way will I find them again. However, I would point you to the Medlife Crisis Youtube channel. He's a hospital doctor, and he gives lots and lots of info on the disease..........and then he caught it himself.


----------



## FatmanG

Cheers Mike
I've seen Italian doctors etc but nothing from any survivors who have been really I'll but pulled through. I saw the Italian Dr who said it was a vicious pneumonia not a flu at all. Hopefully we will start seeing videos of people who have suffered and pulled through to give us an account of the illness but more importantly give hope to us as at the moment its all doom. I appreciate you posting even feeling like craap I hope you get through it mike as you are one of the most helpful on here always willing to give advice and your WIP are superb were lucky to have you on this forum. 
Get well soon
FG


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Letter in today's Times -
VIRUS DATA MUST DICTATE POLICY
The government’s insistence that its policy “follows the science” may give the impression that science is a collection of proven facts. The reality is that science is a collection of speculations supported by evidence or, as the philosopher Karl Popper put it, conjectures corroborated by data. Where data is scarce, as with this virus, scientists can support a range of conjectures.

Whether the UK’s approach is optimal remains to be seen, but it is far better to change policy as data accumulates — as appears to be the case — rather than stick with the original plan.
Professor Michael Hyland, Plymouth University


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Has anybody given any thought to what the medium or longer term consequences of the current emergency and measures in place to address it might be, socially and economically?

I rather hope that some of the social consequences might be positive. In our neck of the woods, the Parish Council is organising a system whereby anyone in isolation can get some help with shopping, phone chats, and so on. The local churchwarden passed the other day, and she told me the church was organising a rota of volunteers to keep in touch with some of the village's older folks. Yesterday, two of my neighbours pushed a leaflet through my letterbox asking if anyone wanted to join the street Whattsapp group - one of them is a pensioner, the other is 11. The nearest neighbours are swapping phone numbers and pledges of mutual help if needed, and I don't think it's just hollow talk. All that happened with nobody being asked or cajoled, and from what I hear on the grapevine, it isn't just round here that such things are happening. Hopefully, the strengthening of local bonds won't completely evaporate once we're passed all this.

Economically is a bit more uncertain. Shutting down a significant portion of the economy, the huge knock to much of the rest of it, and the vast increase in Sovereign debt is all something I haven't quite got my head around. I'm not sure anybody else has, yet, either.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Andy Kev.":22kjjmcn said:


> Nigel Burden":22kjjmcn said:
> 
> 
> 
> Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> That's barely believable. What sort of education have these youths had to make them think that that is in any way acceptable? What is there appreciation of real life?
> 
> I trust somebody called the police as a bit of police brutality would do them no end of good.
Click to expand...


Back in the 1950s the local policeman would probably put his belt across their backsides, and if their fathers were any thing like mine, you wouldn't go home complaining because there would be another belting coming your way, and worse than the one the policeman gave you. The problem is that they know that basically, there's nothing that's going to be done to them, and if it is, their parents are up in arms about it. Also, this is not a rough neighbourhood, its a relatively affluent part of S.E. Dorset.

Nigel.


----------



## RogerS

Nigel Burden":ixgmtt2z said:


> Andy Kev.":ixgmtt2z said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nigel Burden":ixgmtt2z said:
> 
> 
> 
> Reports on face book report that a gang of youths have congregated outside of the local Co-op and are coughing on passer bys.
> 
> Nigel.
> 
> 
> 
> That's barely believable. What sort of education have these youths had to make them think that that is in any way acceptable? What is there appreciation of real life?
> 
> I trust somebody called the police as a bit of police brutality would do them no end of good.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Back in the 1950s the local policeman would probably put his belt across their backsides, and if their fathers were any thing like mine, you wouldn't go home complaining because there would be another belting coming your way, and worse than the one the policeman gave you. The problem is that they know that basically, there's nothing that's going to be done to them, and if it is, their parents are up in arms about it. Also, this is not a rough neighbourhood, its a relatively affluent part of S.E. Dorset.
> 
> Nigel.
Click to expand...


The best thing anyone can do in these circumstances is to take their photo using your smartphone and then post it up together with details as to what they were doing on the local Facebook group page, Twitter etc. Let local peer pressure sort them out. Either that or a handy length of 4x2 accidentally swinging around as you thought you heard someone shouting 'Help' and you turned to see if you could help.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Do that on our local community Facebook group and the moderator will remove it. That would be invading their rights. :roll: Personally, I like the idea of the 4 by 2.

Nigel.


----------



## MikeG.

Cheshirechappie":31kfnxnu said:


> ...... Shutting down a significant portion of the economy, the huge knock to much of the rest of it, and the vast increase in Sovereign debt is all something I haven't quite got my head around. I'm not sure anybody else has, yet, either.



I think they're all pretty clear that catastrophic as these things are, all the alternatives are worse.

Our village works more on an informal basis than you describe. We all look out for each other. Since word got out that I'm ill we've had a steady flow of people dropping stuff off outside the front door. We've had 3 dozen eggs in the last 3 or 4 days. Jars of jam and marmalade. A homemade cake, some homemade biscuits, a bag of homegrown leeks, and a box of paracetamol.


----------



## MikeG.

MikeG.":19eh0z3r said:


> ........My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms.........



My wife has started coughing. That's not good.


----------



## AES

@"CC": Yes, same here too. Yesterday my wife took a phone call from our village "Gemeinderat" (Council). It would seem that we're on their list of "wrinklies" ( ;-) )and the caller left a local telephone number from which we can get help with shopping, prescriptions, etc, as needed. 

That may well have been done "because we have to" (I don't know), but we also received calls out of the blue from 2 near neighbours offering similar. Those 2 people are just "ordinary local people" so clearly there are at least some people who are voluntarily thinking in a "community together" fashion. At least one good outcome from a horrible situation. Let's hope it continues after this is all over.

About economic financial and business outcomes, I really don't know CC, any more than anyone else. I can imagine several pretty awful scenarios, but best not to speculate at this point I believe (& that last NOT intended as a damper on the latter part of your post BTW).

Apart from my age taking me into the most at-risk group, I'm really glad I'm retired now, especially as my job involved a lot of travel, usually by air. The people who are working/will go back to work after this is all over really do have my sympathies and best wishes.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Sorry to hear about your wife Mike, and good to hear that you are improving. 

My wife has messaged me from work, and the resident for whom they had to call an ambulance did not have coronavirus. The isolation of the staff who had contact is now lifted it seems.

Nigel.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

MikeG.":15xu32ln said:


> Cheshirechappie":15xu32ln said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...... Shutting down a significant portion of the economy, the huge knock to much of the rest of it, and the vast increase in Sovereign debt is all something I haven't quite got my head around. I'm not sure anybody else has, yet, either.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I think they're all pretty clear that catastrophic as these things are, all the alternatives are worse.
> 
> Our village works more on an informal basis than you describe. We all look out for each other. Since word got out that I'm ill we've had a steady flow of people dropping stuff off outside the front door. We've had 3 dozen eggs in the last 3 or 4 days. Jars of jam and marmalade. A homemade cake, some homemade biscuits, a bag of homegrown leeks, and a box of paracetamol.
Click to expand...


Given the difficulty of obtaining them now, the box of paracetamol is genuinely thoughtful and generous.

As to the alternatives, I'm not at all sure that anything is very clear. There seem to be a lot of people either laid off, dismissed or going on involuntary gardening leave, some of them not knowing if, how or when they'll next be paid. There are business owners not knowing whether their businesses will be solvent next month. That's a big, immediate worry for many. Given the suddenness of the economic measures intended to alleviate such problems, there will inevitably be confusion for some time over their delivery, adding to peoples' worries. Exactly what the longer term consequences of all that will be, Lord knows.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

AES":3tia8zdv said:


> @"CC": Yes, same here too. Yesterday my wife took a phone call from our village "Gemeinderat" (Council). It would seem that we're on their list of "wrinklies" ( ;-) )and the caller left a local telephone number from which we can get help with shopping, prescriptions, etc, as needed.
> 
> That may well have been done "because we have to" (I don't know), but we also received calls out of the blue from 2 near neighbours offering similar. Those 2 people are just "ordinary local people" so clearly there are at least some people who are voluntarily thinking in a "community together" fashion. At least one good outcome from a horrible situation. Let's hope it continues after this is all over.
> 
> About economic financial and business outcomes, I really don't know CC, any more than anyone else. I can imagine several pretty awful scenarios, but best not to speculate at this point I believe (& that last NOT intended as a damper on the latter part of your post BTW).
> 
> Apart from my age taking me into the most at-risk group, I'm really glad I'm retired now, especially as my job involved a lot of travel, usually by air. The people who are working/will go back to work after this is all over really do have my sympathies and best wishes.



One thing that does lift my spirits a bit is the contrast between the Facebook report of yobbery and the fact that an 11 year old on our street (with support of one of our public-spirited pensioners) has taken it upon herself to take steps to set up a Whattsapp group. Does give you a bit of hope for the future!


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":3nutpwgk said:


> MikeG.":3nutpwgk said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........My wife thought I was just malingering for the first couple of days. And talking of her, if she is to get unwell it's around today or tomorrow when she might be expected to show symptoms.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> My wife has started coughing. That's not good.
Click to expand...


Ouch...how well did the two of you manage to isolate from each other ?


----------



## Steve Maskery

I've just posted something that apparently is not true, or at least, is denied by the Italians. My apologies if anyone read it and was alarmed. I've deleted it.


----------



## MikeG.

RogerS":768xt9e9 said:


> ........Ouch...how well did the two of you manage to isolate from each other ?



We tried, but quickly realised that it was impossible to do effectively.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":1b6p8gb9 said:


> RogerS":1b6p8gb9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........Ouch...how well did the two of you manage to isolate from each other ?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> We tried, but quickly realised that it was impossible to do effectively.
Click to expand...


Why was that Mike...rooms ? cooking ? Would really appreciate more info.


----------



## Trevanion

It's strange that a bit of _isolation_ (or at least the thought of isolation) of all things is actually bringing communities together much stronger than I've ever seen before.

If nothing else comes out of this, It'll be nice to see people getting on and talking with each other again.


----------



## RogerS

Trevanion":1dniswg1 said:


> It's strange that a bit of _isolation_ (or at least the thought of isolation) of all things is actually bringing communities together much stronger than I've ever seen before.
> 
> If nothing else comes out of this, It'll be nice to see people getting on and talking with each other again.



We were already doing that up here !


----------



## MikeG.

RogerS":91hjvsig said:


> Why was that Mike...rooms ? cooking ? Would really appreciate more info.



Every surface in every room I visited would need cleaning after every visit I made to the room, for a start. I mean, if we had a mansion with wings we could have separated completely, but that's not the way for most people. There's also the whole thing of being infectious before you know you are ill. I didn't know I was ill until Wednesday, but I'd caught the bug on the previous Thursday or Friday. So I had probably infected my wife before I even knew I was infectious. Once we thought through the implications we realised that isolation from each other within the same house just wasn't going to work. Sleeping separately, changing our individual towels every day, washing hands and wiping surfaces........we quickly realised it was all a bit token.


----------



## Trevanion

RogerS":23rvegwz said:


> We were already doing that up here !



Yebut you were shooting at people's feet with your rifle once they got on the boundary! :lol:


----------



## lurker

Last June my father in law died.
When we cleared the house I found boxes and boxes of paracetamol.
At the time I grumbled about him hoarding.
This week, I have changed my tune as I have been able to ensure friends and family all have a good supply.
Thanks Stan!


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I haven't any paracetamol ............ but I have a couple of months supply of morphine.


----------



## lurker

Phil Pascoe":38p577z5 said:


> I haven't any paracetamol ............ but I have a couple of months supply of morphine.



He had a 250ml bottle of that!
No one would take it for disposal, I thought it might be a problem tipping it down the drain so I poured it out in his garden. I’m sure it resulted in some very happy slugs


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":2vp2gmo6 said:


> RogerS":2vp2gmo6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why was that Mike...rooms ? cooking ? Would really appreciate more info.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Every surface in every room I visited would need cleaning after every visit I made to the room, for a start. I mean, if we had a mansion with wings we could have separated completely, but that's not the way for most people. There's also the whole thing of being infectious before you know you are ill. I didn't know I was ill until Wednesday, but I'd caught the bug on the previous Thursday or Friday. So I had probably infected my wife before I even knew I was infectious. Once we thought through the implications we realised that isolation from each other within the same house just wasn't going to work. Sleeping separately, changing our individual towels every day, washing hands and wiping surfaces........we quickly realised it was all a bit token.
Click to expand...


Ah, many thanks for that, Mike. You've covered pretty much everything I'd thought of and found a way around should one of us get infected. We're fortunate that we can hive either one of us away from the other for the duration. The one thing we can't guard against (as you highlighted) is being infectious before you know you are ill.


----------



## Chris152

Boris wants people to be able to go to the parks, to go for a walk and to get fresh air. (Just now in his address.)
Those running the parks and the National Trust are closing their parks because people going there en masse are a threat to public heath. (Just now in the BBC special news report in which Johnson made his address.)
(homer)
eta - and now he's saying, in the same presentation, 'Stay at home if you possibly can.'


----------



## lurker

Chris152":yblvxchn said:


> Boris wants people to be able to go to the parks, to go for a walk and to get fresh air. (Just now in his address.)
> Those running the parks and the National Trust are closing their parks because people going there en masse are a threat to public heath. (Just now in the BBC special news report in which Johnson made his address.)
> (homer)



Never underestimate the stupidity of a herd.


----------



## Bm101

I spent the weekend taking my shed back to ground zero. Proper sort out from the ground up. Well happy. 
Kids and mrs doing gardening etc. Spring sunshine. Bird song. Clarity.
Enough to take your mind off a pandemic briefly.
Next door meanwhile got people round. Not kidding. Garden party.
I see Bill later over front fence. Party Bill ?
Nooooo. Well a few. Its mothers day. 
I know Bill. Didn't get my mrs nowt on account of the international pandemic. Or my Mum. I phoned her up. They are alright so far.
Well just a few people says Bill. A Usually Intelligent Man. 
He shrugs. He knows but he is struggling to cope with the enormity of the change in circumstances.
You understand exponential growth though Bill I hint at politely. It's not 9 its 9 to the power of . 
Yebbut.
Bill and his mrs help all the old folk. Done so for years. Really. 
Good sorts. 9 people there today plus Bill and Mrs. 
Educated sorts . Morally obligated. Business owners. 

If Bill is doing it what hope have we got. I'm essentially a libertarian. Not currently I'm fookin not.


----------



## transatlantic

Don't be like Bill.


----------



## Bm101

Where I live is pretty nice. Nigh on everyone round here has at least the idea of a garden. Tower hamlets it's not. There is free space to go and be alone.
For possibly the first time in history the police were called to the local park _in the actual daytime_ because there were too many kids and parents in the playground. 


....

I'm not making this s*** up.
The police had to tell all the grown ups to take their kids home.

Starting g to think this is destiny tbh.


----------



## RogerS

Bm101":k4hnwplo said:


> I spent the weekend taking my shed back to ground zero. Proper sort out from the ground up. Well happy.
> Kids and mrs doing gardening etc. Spring sunshine. Bird song. Clarity.
> Enough to take your mind off a pandemic briefly.
> Next door meanwhile got people round. Not kidding. Garden party.
> I see Bill later over front fence. Party Bill ?
> Nooooo. Well a few. Its mothers day.
> I know Bill. Didn't get my mrs nowt on account of the international pandemic. Or my Mum. I phoned her up. They are alright so far.
> Well just a few people says Bill. A Usually Intelligent Man.
> He shrugs. He knows but he is struggling to cope with the enormity of the change in circumstances.
> You understand exponential growth though Bill I hint at politely. It's not 9 its 9 to the power of .
> Yebbut.
> Bill and his mrs help all the old folk. Done so for years. Really.
> Good sorts. 9 people there today plus Bill and Mrs.
> Educated sorts . Morally obligated. Business owners.
> 
> If Bill is doing it what hope have we got. I'm essentially a libertarian. Not currently I'm fookin not.



I dream of driving down the promenade with my Uzi and starting the cull.


----------



## Chris152

Yep, what the Bills don't need is rather vague and contradictory advice. What they need are clear instructions backed up by the force of law.


----------



## Doug71

When I drove the 2 miles to my workshop through our village today I saw more people out walking their dogs and stood in front gardens chatting etc then I ever have before, unbelievable.


----------



## HappyHacker

Snowden reported its busiest ever day in living memory on Saturday with so many people at the top that social distancing was impossible. 

It does make you wonder.

As someone trying to isolate (over 70) it is difficult when I have to go shopping nearly every day as there is nothing to buy in the shops no bread, no milk, no tea and that is the small local shops and I am not going queueing at 6:00 am. It is also difficult trying to explain what isolating means to my daughters, who don't live with us, and wife. They think it is funny when I go around disinfecting door handles behind them.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Did my weekly shop yesterday morning. No problems - just a couple of items on the list out of stock. Given the circumstances, I'll live with that. In fact, given the circumstances, I reckon that's pretty flippin' amazing.

Been going to the same supermarket Saturday morning for years. Got to know the front-line staff reasonably well - share a laugh and set the world to rights as my stuff goes through the till and into bags. Made a point yesterday of seeking out the floor supervisor and quietly saying thanks for all the efforts; some of us do appreciate the hard work on our behalf. She looked half way to worn out.

Did cross my mind that the checkout staff spend all day every day facing a constant stream of mobile petri dishes. So much for social distancing for them.

Spare them a thought, next time you do your shop. Just a quiet thanks. They've earned it, these last couple of weeks.


----------



## Lons

RogerS":p5xn47q1 said:


> a handy length of 4x2 accidentally swinging around as you thought you heard someone shouting 'Help' and you turned to see if you could help.



Just make sure it's longer than 2 metres. :wink:


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":25fwbjw3 said:


> Yep, what the Bills don't need is rather vague and contradictory advice. What they need are clear instructions backed up by the force of law.


I agree but the practical side is that it is unlikely that there is enough of the law to go around. The background to that is of course good: we live in a society where we are governed and policed by consent. 

What needs to make a comeback is something that we seem to have abandoned i.e. social pressure. In Bill's case it would involve everybody in the neighbourhood telling him that the party is over and the guests have to go home. We have developed, probably since the 60s, a culture whereby you do your own thing and "nobody ain't gonna tell me nuffink". Everybody's got rights but nobody's got obligations and because the police have effectively been neutered (what would happen to a copper these days who would give a child the traditional "clip round the earhole"? The answer is simple: no backup from parents or schools and probably disciplinary action.), it is increasingly difficult for them to react quickly and snuff anti-social behaviour out on the spot.

What Bill was doing is almost the definition of anti-social behaviour. The weird thing is that he's probably a nice, civilised bloke: he's forgotten his social obligations or probably more to the point, he is enough of a selfish individualist to resent himself conforming to them.

The very bottom line is the concept of consideration for others. In the case of this virus that does not mean keeping the music down at your garden party for fear of annoying the neighbours but not having the party at all for fear of taking out half the neighbourhood.

If I were bm101, I'd consider printing off my post about Bill and all related replies and showing them to him in a kind and friendly way so that he doesn't get too embarrassed.


----------



## Rorschach

People are afraid to tell other people they are acting like idiots when they are acting like idiots. However nice Bill may be, he's acting like an acting and needs a wake up call.


----------



## Chris152

Andy Kev.":366srpol said:


> Chris152":366srpol said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yep, what the Bills don't need is rather vague and contradictory advice. What they need are clear instructions backed up by the force of law.
> 
> 
> 
> I agree but the practical side is that it is unlikely that there is enough of the law to go around. The background to that is of course good: we live in a society where we are governed and policed by consent.
> 
> What needs to make a comeback is something that we seem to have abandoned i.e. social pressure. In Bill's case it would involve everybody in the neighbourhood telling him that the party is over and the guests have to go home. We have developed, probably since the 60s, a culture whereby you do your own thing and "nobody ain't gonna tell me nuffink". Everybody's got rights but nobody's got obligations and because the police have effectively been neutered (what would happen to a copper these days who would give a child the traditional "clip round the earhole"? The answer is simple: no backup from parents or schools and probably disciplinary action.), it is increasingly difficult for them to react quickly and snuff anti-social behaviour out on the spot.
> 
> What Bill was doing is almost the definition of anti-social behaviour. The weird thing is that he's probably a nice, civilised bloke: he's forgotten his social obligations or probably more to the point, he is enough of a selfish individualist to resent himself conforming to them.
> 
> The very bottom line is the concept of consideration for others. In the case of this virus that does not mean keeping the music down at your garden party for fear of annoying the neighbours but not having the party at all for fear of taking out half the neighbourhood.
> 
> If I were bm101, I'd consider printing off my post about Bill and all related replies and showing them to him in a kind and friendly way so that he doesn't get too embarrassed.
Click to expand...

Yep, all that's failing so we need laws enforced to control the situation.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":1fbntne5 said:


> Andy Kev.":1fbntne5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I agree but the practical side is that it is unlikely that there is enough of the law to go around. The background to that is of course good: we live in a society where we are governed and policed by consent.
> 
> What needs to make a comeback is something that we seem to have abandoned i.e. social pressure. In Bill's case it would involve everybody in the neighbourhood telling him that the party is over and the guests have to go home. We have developed, probably since the 60s, a culture whereby you do your own thing and "nobody ain't gonna tell me nuffink". Everybody's got rights but nobody's got obligations and because the police have effectively been neutered (what would happen to a copper these days who would give a child the traditional "clip round the earhole"? The answer is simple: no backup from parents or schools and probably disciplinary action.), it is increasingly difficult for them to react quickly and snuff anti-social behaviour out on the spot.
> 
> What Bill was doing is almost the definition of anti-social behaviour. The weird thing is that he's probably a nice, civilised bloke: he's forgotten his social obligations or probably more to the point, he is enough of a selfish individualist to resent himself conforming to them.
> 
> The very bottom line is the concept of consideration for others. In the case of this virus that does not mean keeping the music down at your garden party for fear of annoying the neighbours but not having the party at all for fear of taking out half the neighbourhood.
> 
> If I were bm101, I'd consider printing off my post about Bill and all related replies and showing them to him in a kind and friendly way so that he doesn't get too embarrassed.
> 
> 
> 
> Yep, all that's failing so we need laws enforced to control the situation.
Click to expand...


It's very difficult to legislate for people's attitudes, which is what we are discussing here. I would imagine that emergency powers in the current situation would be acceptable to most people. However, the root problem is something that has been growing for many decades.

The 60s social revolution was a cracking thing in terms of rights for the individual. For instance, life is surely better now for gay people than it was then. However, we appear to have thrown out the baby of social standards and the will to enforce them along with the bathwater of restrictions on the rights of individuals. People are now scared to pull up other people for unacceptable or antisocial behaviour and they feel that in any event they will get no backup from a state that itself has largely abandoned standards.

It seem to me that the nature of human and political affairs is pendular. In pre-WW2 times there was too much conformity to social standards e.g. divorce was seen as being almost scandalous, now there is too little conformity e.g. a woman can announce that one day at the time of her choosing she will have a child but will bring it up entirely on her own (I've come across two examples of this). It would appear that the pendulum has to take a swing back to somewhere more near the middle.

FWIW I don't think you can directly legislate for this but what you can do is direct the police to be far less tolerant of anti-social behaviour. Personally - and I do mean this seriously - I would bring the stocks back for things like vandalism or drunken loutishness. Waking up with a hangover to find yourself being pelted with rotten fruit for 24 - 48 hrs would probably change the behaviour of a lot of people.


----------



## Benchwayze

I placed myself on 'lock-down'. 
I've had no symptoms so far, and the only personal contact I've had is with my home-help, who takes sensible precautions. Nothing is certain, I know, but I can't see any other way of curtailing the spread of this virus until a vaccine is found. What angers me most is the crowd of vultures that clears supermarket shelves so folk like me can't even just replenish supplies. 

I read that one selfish old toad, in my age group, has evicted his tenant who is an NHS worker, because he is scared of contracting the virus. I would like to live to a ripe old age myself, but life is about accepting what comes along, doing your best and hoping it's enough. I am in my 82nd year so I can't complain. I am just glad I have nothing to be scared of with regard to the afterlife; if there is going to be one! 

Cheers

John (hammer)


----------



## Phil Pascoe

My mother always said she wasn't afraid of death - she'd go either to heaven and meet Jesus or to hell and meet her freinds.


----------



## AES

Personally, I agree with a lot of what you've said above Andy Kev, but IMO it goes even deeper than that.

I'm going to be really old-fashioned here, but it seems to me that a root problem (perhaps not the only one) is lack of discipline in the home.

For example, I'm not sure what the laws are in Switzerland and in UK, but I understand that in Germany these days (my wife has both friends and relations with kids there) that it's against the law to "bash" your kids.

Now I'm NOT suggesting "bashing them around the head with an iron bar" (!!!) but when I was a kid, if I was really naughty I got a slap around the back of the knees with an open hand - stung like hell for 5 minutes, but I (usually) thoroughly deserved it! And that could be either parents or teacher. And as someone said earlier in this (or a similar thread) if a bobby caught you misbehaving you'd get a very stern talking to and/or a belt across the backside. Not any more apparently.

Now when I started military service we were (sternly) taught that there's no self-discipline without having first been "taught" discipline and respect for authority - note again please, NOT kow-towing to authority, but also not saying to, for example, a policeman "you can't make me". So not a lot of self-discipline there!

Yup, pretty old-fashioned concepts, but IMO a lot of parents either don't have the time or the "interest" to discipline their own kids, therefore when "outsiders" such as teachers or police get to have to handle these kids then they not only have an uphill task but also get no support from the "authorities" above them when trying to handle them "sensibly".

Not true in ALL cases of course, but I venture to suggest - without any real evidence to support the feeling - true in a lot, if not the majority of cases.

Yup, I admit it, in such matters I'm pretty old-fashioned, but I am NOT suggesting "back to the good old days, because as I also experienced myself sometimes, the "good old days" were sometimes not quite so good!

Dunno really, just my take on some of "today's problems".


----------



## Cheshirechappie

"Rights" are in the end pretty meaningless without "responsibilities".

There are too many people banging on about their "rights" but not willing to exercise any "responsibility".


----------



## Andy Kev.

AES,

I agree entirely. When I see slovenly, foul-mouthed morons in tracksuits dragging their kids around towns, I fear that I am looking at the future collapse of civilisation.


----------



## RogerS

I just wonder..

How much do those c**p TV soaps 'set' standards of what is acceptable behaviour

or do they reflect the behaviour in society out there already ?

I suspect the latter but that is then reinforced by the former.


----------



## Chris152

RogerS":2q37rhpc said:


> I just wonder..
> 
> How much do those c**p TV soaps 'set' standards of what is acceptable behaviour
> 
> or do they reflect the behaviour in society out there already ?
> 
> I suspect the latter but that is then reinforced by the former.


I think the latter, but in doing so they normalise its more extreme forms, even glamourise them, and thus it becomes the former. If that makes sense.


----------



## MikeG.

Cheshirechappie":3i5tvpae said:


> "Rights" are in the end pretty meaningless without "responsibilities".
> 
> There are too many people banging on about their "rights" but not willing to exercise any "responsibility".



Absolutely. Spot on. The UDHR and the ECHR were outstanding documents of their time, but flawed. They should have codified our obligations as well as our rights, and made it clear that there was a relationship between the two.


----------



## Lons

I've just had a telephone conversation with my brother in Sydney, they're several weeks behind us so no reason not to have learned from the rest of the world but despite all the warnings about social distancing etc. there were thousands crowded on to Bondi Beach. the authorities closed it so the hoards moved into the nearest pubs, police closed them so they've moved in droves into the city bars and they're having to close them systematically. They clearly haven't learned and will need to shut everything down now!
What they have done is start to close the borders between states but the schools are still open, panic buying is widespread, can't even get Ventolin inhalers which is a concern as wife and 2 of his kids have asthma.
I said I had thought the first thing the Ozzies would stockpile is booze and he said they have, someone put out a fake rumour that alcohol and barbecued kangaroo meat killed the virus. :lol:


----------



## Nigel Burden

AES":3t5meyii said:


> Personally, I agree with a lot of what you've said above Andy Kev, but IMO it goes even deeper than that.
> 
> I'm going to be really old-fashioned here, but it seems to me that a root problem (perhaps not the only one) is lack of discipline in the home.
> 
> For example, I'm not sure what the laws are in Switzerland and in UK, but I understand that in Germany these days (my wife has both friends and relations with kids there) that it's against the law to "bash" your kids.
> 
> Now I'm NOT suggesting "bashing them around the head with an iron bar" (!!!) but when I was a kid, if I was really naughty I got a slap around the back of the knees with an open hand - stung like hell for 5 minutes, but I (usually) thoroughly deserved it! And that could be either parents or teacher. And as someone said earlier in this (or a similar thread) if a bobby caught you misbehaving you'd get a very stern talking to and/or a belt across the backside. Not any more apparently.
> 
> Now when I started military service we were (sternly) taught that there's no self-discipline without having first been "taught" discipline and respect for authority - note again please, NOT kow-towing to authority, but also not saying to, for example, a policeman "you can't make me". So not a lot of self-discipline there!
> 
> Yup, pretty old-fashioned concepts, but IMO a lot of parents either don't have the time or the "interest" to discipline their own kids, therefore when "outsiders" such as teachers or police get to have to handle these kids then they not only have an uphill task but also get no support from the "authorities" above them when trying to handle them "sensibly".
> 
> Not true in ALL cases of course, but I venture to suggest - without any real evidence to support the feeling - true in a lot, if not the majority of cases.
> 
> Yup, I admit it, in such matters I'm pretty old-fashioned, but I am NOT suggesting "back to the good old days, because as I also experienced myself sometimes, the "good old days" were sometimes not quite so good!
> 
> Dunno really, just my take on some of "today's problems".



I couldn't agree more.

My children are both in their mid thirties and they both got a hand on the back of the leg or wrist, and they'll both say that it did them no harm. Smacking is illegal in the UK, but the problem is, that the campaigners who campaigned to abolish smacking fail to realise that those that are going to beat or abuse a child will do it regardless of whether there is a law banning it or not.

I personally think that corporal punishment should be brought back in schools, and people who carry out crimes of violence should be birched. I remember years ago a youth in the Isle of Man who had broken a shop window being interviewed saying that he wouldn't be back for a second dose.

Nigel.


----------



## Lons

AES":35gcz8xi said:


> when I was a kid, if I was really naughty I got a slap around the back of the knees with an open hand - stung like hell for 5 minutes, but I (usually) thoroughly deserved it! And that could be either parents or teacher. And as someone said earlier in this (or a similar thread) if a bobby caught you misbehaving you'd get a very stern talking to and/or a belt across the backside.



Brings back memories.

When I was about 12 a couple of us climbed into a large ancient pear tree in the local pub gardens and stuffed our pockets with fruit, the village bobby saw us, we were caught red handed and marched home in turn after a stern lecture. My dad gave me a slap for daring to "shame the family by bringing the police to our door". I never pinched fruit, or anything else ever again and the slap across the backside did me no harm!

The worst of it was the fruit in that tree was never harvested and the damn pears were hard as hell and inedible. #-o


----------



## Chris152

Just saw this on FB:





Striplings!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Chris152":16m8lzk0 said:


> Just saw this on FB:
> View attachment 90694203
> 
> Striplings!



The general population is supposed to be better educated, these days. I sometimes wonder, though. Teaching a few more "responsibilities" might not go amiss. Basic discipline in schools would be a good start.

Edit to add - also true to say that basic human nature doesn't change much. You'd hope that the broader outlook that comes with some education would modify things a bit, but it clearly doesn't work on some. Is that the fault of the people or the system of education, and some parents, I wonder?


----------



## Nigel Burden

With regards to social distancing. I live in a large village on the edge of the country, so it's not too difficult to keep a distance from other people, you can always cross the road. I took my daughters dog, a German Wirehaired Pointer, out this morning and it was eerily quiet out there. At no point did I have to pass within more than about five metres of anyone. Most of the walk was done on the heathland about 200 metres from home. We had two joggers pass on a tarmac path but we were on grass a good ten metres away, another dogwalker on the heath who pulled back into a cutting, a man with two children in the distance, and an elderly couple to whom we were able to avoid as there was plenty of width.

Nigel.


----------



## Geoff_S

I live in suburbia, and to be fair, it's not so difficult here.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Lons":nfztq2p5 said:


> AES":nfztq2p5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> when I was a kid, if I was really naughty I got a slap around the back of the knees with an open hand - stung like hell for 5 minutes, but I (usually) thoroughly deserved it! And that could be either parents or teacher. And as someone said earlier in this (or a similar thread) if a bobby caught you misbehaving you'd get a very stern talking to and/or a belt across the backside.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Brings back memories.
> 
> When I was about 12 a couple of us climbed into a large ancient pear tree in the local pub gardens and stuffed our pockets with fruit, the village bobby saw us, we were caught red handed and marched home in turn after a stern lecture. My dad gave me a slap for daring to "shame the family by bringing the police to our door". I never pinched fruit, or anything else ever again and the slap across the backside did me no harm!
> 
> The worst of it was the fruit in that tree was never harvested and the damn pears were hard as hell and inedible. #-o
Click to expand...


I did a similar thing although these pears were ripe. Father didn't know what I'd done until I wouldn't eat my dinner, and we were not allowed to waste food. He made me sit there until I'd eaten it. I did feel ill afterwards.

Nigel.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Cause here for a little glimmer of cautious optimism. The Los Angeles Times reports that a Nobel Laureate chemist has been looking at the Coronavirus figures, and suggests that the pandemic may not be quite as serious or long-lasting as some of the doom mongers are predicting. He does say that control of infection rates will be influenced heavily by social distancing measures, but they may help very significantly in quick control. The article also compares flu death rates in the USA (which go virtually unreported) with the daily media sensationalism around Covid 19.

It might just be that the Prime Minister's suggestion that 12 weeks will be enough to significantly control the epidemic may not be wholly misplaced.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate


----------



## Lons

We were little bu**ars really, lived in a small mining village fields and countryside all around and we got up to usual mischief.
The worst thing we ever did and I'm quite ashamed now was a gang of us dug up a load of potatoes from a farmers field, built a large bonfire and roasted them until the skins were burned black to about 1/2" thick. We ate them and I then had to eat dinner afterwards, I remember being really sick and my mother kept me off school the next day as she thought I was coming down with something. 
Never did tell her the truth! :wink:


----------



## lurker

Cheshirechappie":2tcc6o8n said:


> Cause here for a little glimmer of cautious optimism. The Los Angeles Times reports that a Nobel Laureate chemist has been looking at the Coronavirus figures, and suggests that the pandemic may not be quite as serious or long-lasting as some of the doom mongers are predicting. He does say that control of infection rates will be influenced heavily by social distancing measures, but they may help very significantly in quick control. The article also compares flu death rates in the USA (which go virtually unreported) with the daily media sensationalism around Covid 19.
> 
> It might just be that the Prime Minister's suggestion that 12 weeks will be enough to significantly control the epidemic may not be wholly misplaced.
> 
> https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate



You said chemist and I thought they would know nothing about this.
But the article says he is a bio physicist so he probably does.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Good luck to anyone attempting to work from home, the internet being as it is - my wife has just given up trying and gone to work. We can't even listen to the radio without its breaking up, let alone watch the TV.
Amusing, in a sad sort of way - governments of all hues have been telling people for years it's best they work from home and now they need to they can't. Still, £100bn+ on HS2 hasn't yet had the plug pulled - better they ensure the whole Country has good internet speed and decent phone signals.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

lurker":iadww5rc said:


> Cheshirechappie":iadww5rc said:
> 
> 
> 
> Cause here for a little glimmer of cautious optimism. The Los Angeles Times reports that a Nobel Laureate chemist has been looking at the Coronavirus figures, and suggests that the pandemic may not be quite as serious or long-lasting as some of the doom mongers are predicting. He does say that control of infection rates will be influenced heavily by social distancing measures, but they may help very significantly in quick control. The article also compares flu death rates in the USA (which go virtually unreported) with the daily media sensationalism around Covid 19.
> 
> It might just be that the Prime Minister's suggestion that 12 weeks will be enough to significantly control the epidemic may not be wholly misplaced.
> 
> https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You said chemist and I thought they would know nothing about this.
> But the article says he is a bio physicist so he probably does.
Click to expand...


Yes, he's a biophysicist. His Nobel prize is in chemistry, though. Not sure how that works, but there it is.


----------



## Geoff_S

Phil Pascoe":2t1u1e1o said:


> Good luck to anyone attempting to work from home, the internet being as it is - my wife has just given up trying and gone to work. We can't even listen to the radio without its breaking up, let alone watch the TV.
> Amusing, in a sad sort of way - governments of all hues have been telling people for years it's best they work from home and now they need to they can't. Still, £100bn+ on HS2 hasn't yet had the plug pulled - better they ensure the whole Country has good internet speed and decent phone signals.



It was never good in your neck of the woods at the best of times (from a tourist, sorry). Bloody disgusting really. It's not like we're a huge continent!


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I've just seen a map of best and worst speeds- Truro is the worst in the Country at average of 23mbps. I'm about six miles from Truro and I'd be delighted with 23mbps - I've never had a reading of more than 19mbps. It's now fluctuating between 6mbps and 0.1mbps. I did a speed test last night and it told me I wasn't even connected.


----------



## Rorschach

Phil Pascoe":1bcv0o9m said:


> I've just seen a map of best and worst speeds- Truro is the worst in the Country at average of 23mbps. I'm about six miles from Truro and I'd be delighted with 23mbps - I've never had a reading of more than 19mbps. It's now fluctuating between 6mbps and 0.1mbps. I did a speed test last night and it told me I wasn't even connected.



:shock: 
I am meant to be getting 75 but only getting just over 50, so quite a drop in real terms but at least it's still a reasonable service. Hope they get yours sorted out.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

I agree totally with most of the sentiments expressed on the antisocial and destructive behaviour which has become prevalent.

I would like those responsible punished for their stupidity. The explanation that they are the victim of poor parenting, inadequate education, racial or gender discrimination etc is a liberal way to excuse a failure to take personal responsibility for their actions.

But if punishment is seen as the solution, we need to be clear what this means. If people are arrested they need to go through a process to be punished, letting them off with a verbal reprimand is an inadequate. The police should not have to use limited resources for this at this time - they have better things to do.

So what is the solution - perhaps give police emergency powers to arrest and punish miscreants without legal process. To prevent repeat behaviour offenders should be confined (re-purpose remote army camps??) in shared accomodation for a minimum of (say) 14 days. With luck they would get the virus - no medical help to be provided bar paracetemol.

This is a real win-win-win:

- they are appropriately punished
- if they are infected and recover they no longer represent a threat
- if they don't recover they are removed permanently from the gene pool 

I appreciate some may find this an unattractive option and outcome. Rather than repeating how bad it all is, we should find solutions even if many would normally see them as in conflict with previously accepted norms in our society.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Rorschach":2hf5m2r7 said:


> :shock:
> I am meant to be getting 75 but only getting just over 50, so quite a drop in real terms but at least it's still a reasonable service. Hope they get yours sorted out.



Atm - 5.41 - 5.84 The upload speed is higher than the download.


----------



## Bodgers

Phil Pascoe":3etd9sk2 said:


> Good luck to anyone attempting to work from home, the internet being as it is - my wife has just given up trying and gone to work. We can't even listen to the radio without its breaking up, let alone watch the TV.
> Amusing, in a sad sort of way - governments of all hues have been telling people for years it's best they work from home and now they need to they can't. Still, £100bn+ on HS2 hasn't yet had the plug pulled - better they ensure the whole Country has good internet speed and decent phone signals.




Working fine here...50mbps BT connection. Skype/Teams sessions all good.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Phil Pascoe":1wkzdckk said:


> Atm - 5.41 - 5.84 The upload speed is higher than the download.



GCHQ at Bude are always hogging the bandwidth, but I know Goonhilly has an excellent fibre connection to London - you could always ask to borrow some of that. (The problem is probably in the last couple of hundred metres to your house - it'll get there drekly).


----------



## MikeK

AES":3d1cm7ik said:


> Now when I started military service we were (sternly) taught that there's no self-discipline without having first been "taught" discipline and respect for authority - note again please, NOT kow-towing to authority, but also not saying to, for example, a policeman "you can't make me". So not a lot of self-discipline there!



Almost all of the men, and a couple of the women, in my family for the past six or seven generations have been in the military, including me, so discipline and respect for authority are in my blood.

Years ago, I was a cop in Virginia and can't remember how many times I heard something like "You can't do that", "F**k you", or "You can't make me." We used the "Ask, Tell, Show" method of modifying behavior. The majority responded well to "Ask", some required "Tell", and a few forced us to "Show". Unfortunately, "Show" never ended well for the other person and sometimes required a visit to the Emergency Room or a call for Emergency Medical Services to respond, depending on how stubborn the person was and how much force was required to complete the "Show" process. With few exceptions, those who experienced "Show" responded well to "Ask" later.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Cheshirechappie":3iahibe2 said:


> Yes, he's a biophysicist. His Nobel prize is in chemistry, though. Not sure how that works, but there it is.



At that level things are not often black and white. A mate of mine got his BSc and PhD in biochemistry for some time he's been a professor in that discipline. However, much of his work is on computer modelling of various substances for biochemical applications. He's also doing some stuff which is pure electronics.

The layman, used to a plumber doing nothing but fiddling about with pipes, taps etc. tends to think the same sort of things of high level scientists. It ain't necessarily so.


----------



## RogerS

Phil Pascoe":cy62a24c said:


> I've just seen a map of best and worst speeds- Truro is the worst in the Country at average of 23mbps. I'm about six miles from Truro and I'd be delighted with 23mbps - I've never had a reading of more than 19mbps. It's now fluctuating between 6mbps and 0.1mbps. I did a speed test last night and it told me I wasn't even connected.



I'm very happy with my 10Mbps.


----------



## RogerS

MikeK":iyrdbv75 said:


> AES":iyrdbv75 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Now when I started military service we were (sternly) taught that there's no self-discipline without having first been "taught" discipline and respect for authority - note again please, NOT kow-towing to authority, but also not saying to, for example, a policeman "you can't make me". So not a lot of self-discipline there!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Almost all of the men, and a couple of the women, in my family for the past six or seven generations have been in the military, including me, so discipline and respect for authority are in my blood.
> 
> Years ago, I was a cop in Virginia and can't remember how many times I heard something like "You can't do that", "F**k you", or "You can't make me." We used the "Ask, Tell, Show" method of modifying behavior. The majority responded well to "Ask", some required "Tell", and a few forced us to "Show". Unfortunately, "Show" never ended well for the other person and sometimes required a visit to the Emergency Room or a call for Emergency Medical Services to respond, depending on how stubborn the person was and how much force was required to complete the "Show" process. With few exceptions, those who experienced "Show" responded well to "Ask" later.
Click to expand...


Oh, I like that approach. You're a man after my own heart. =D>


----------



## MikeG.

Cheshirechappie":2qtemous said:


> ....... Basic discipline in schools would be a good start.......



Have you some evidence that schools don't have good discipline? My wife has been teaching for nearly 35 years and says that discipline and respect are in excellent shape now, and that wasn't always the case last century. This isn't some elitist corner of a rich part of Britain, but a school on an estate in a difficult part of a large town.


----------



## Benchwayze

I empathise with you Nigel. However, would you be prepared to administer the birching? 

I was a Police Officer from the mid 1960s to the mid 90s. Birching had been consigned to the history books by then, but often times it was a Police Officer who carried out the punishment. There used to be a birching stool and birch in the Force Museum. Not exactly an horrific exhibit, but it did cause me to reflect. I am no 'snowflake'; no 'stripling' either, yet I wouldn't want the job of cold-bloodedly birching another human being. I say 'cold-bloodedly' because there have been times when I have had to use violence to quell an unruly spirit. 


John


----------



## That would work

MikeG.":p94x3jwi said:


> Cheshirechappie":p94x3jwi said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....... Basic discipline in schools would be a good start.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Have you some evidence that schools don't have good discipline? Why wife has been teaching for nearly 35 years and says that discipline and respect are in excellent shape now, and that wasn't always the case last century. This isn't some elitist corner of a rich part of Britain, but a school on an estate in a difficult part of a large town.
Click to expand...

Yes, I sometimes wonder what it is that people imagine us teachers do?
I've been in a few schools lately (teaching) and the notion that "discipline" is an imposed state is ridiculous. It's about a school fostering pupils ability to be a part of the place... there are very many schools who do just that and have excellent discipline. I guess you could go back to masking things by using physical violence but then that didn't work did it.


----------



## AES

MikeG":1lkqcw5z said:


> Have you some evidence that schools don't have good discipline?



No I haven't - not real evidence anyway. But from what I've heard from some parents with kids at school in Germany, that may be so. 

PLEASE NOTE I was NOT referring to either UK or Switzerland because not having kids, I have NIL experience of schools here; and only old experience of schools in UK (I went to 11 different schools in 10 years). But as said, that's old experience, I left school in UK in 1960.

MOREOVER, IF it was my earlier post you're referring to Mike, I did NOT say that there's no good discipline in schools. What I said was that IF kids don't learn the basic fundamentals of respect and discipline at home, then when teachers (and I mentioned police too) have such kids to deal with then they face an up hill task. Personally I think that statement is fair enough - AND no disrespect to teachers was intended nor IMO was it implicit within my post.

Perhaps you're referring to another post in this thread? In which case I'm clearly over-reacting. IF so I apologise for the above in advance.

*Mod edit: quite a few posters not using the Quote facility. DIY quoting makes the post less than clear and at times difficult to read. Anybody having problems please drop a post in site-updates.html where help is available. *


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I have a long retired ambulance man as a relative by marriage. He is a small man, but the town's hard men knew they'd met their match with him. If he ever got any trouble when working he just laid the guy out cold, threw him in the ambulance then turfed him out several miles down the road. I suspect this would now be frowned upon. :lol:


----------



## beech1948

Monday started off well today.

All staff working from home. My 12 salespeople are retraining as first line of support. First 11 customers signed up to get a network link to allow us to service their AI systems. Pushing like mad to get next 180 on board. Costs are horrendous but must do for business survival. No major panics in our systems

Office empty except me and my secretary who are sitting 20 feet apart but we can communicate by shouting. Monty Python is alive and well and working in Crowthorne, Berks. Damn I have to get my own coffees as we are so busy.


----------



## MikeG.

AES":ym7ywpir said:


> ........IF it was my earlier post you're referring to Mike, I did NOT say.......



A......it would be nice if this thread on corona virus remained on the topic of corona virus.

B...... the post I was responding to was the post I quoted. I was responding to the phrase I quoted, and to nothing else.


----------



## AES

Yes, I see that now MikeG, but overlooked it at the time. I apologise.

NOT an excuse really, and it doesn't apply in this particular case, but when a thread gets long and involved (and the topic wanders a bit) I DO sometimes get confused by the use of the Forum "quote" button - when someone quotes someone who quotes someone else who was anyway in turn quoting someone completely different.

But as said, that does NOT apply in this case, and clearly I was over-reacting "against" something that I see now was clearly not aimed at my post.

"Engage brain before opening mouth" (or in this case "operating keyboard"). Sorry.


----------



## AES

NOTE TO MODS:

Whichever one of you Gents wrote, QUOTE: Mod edit: quite a few posters not using the Quote facility. DIY quoting makes the post less than clear and at times difficult to read. Anybody having problems please drop a post in site-updates.html where help is available. UNQUOTE:

Sorry, and I'm NOT trying to break the rules, but IMO anyway, what I wrote in the post above explains clearly why I don't often use the Forum "quote" button facility.

With all due respect, I doubt very much whether anyone can say that, for just one example, what I've written above in this post is NOT clear.

Whereas, I find that the use of the Forum "quote" facility is NOT so clear when several quotes by different posters are concerned - all I see in such cases is different boxes with SLIGHTLY different shades of light blue or light grey separating them. In such cases, I find that THOSE are the posts that become difficult to read. I believe my use of the "@X you wrote: QUOTE: ............ UNQUOTE:" as above is much clearer and cannot be misunderstood.

As already said in my apology to MikeG above however, I do accept that the case of multiple quotes did NOT apply in the above case - I simply missed MikeG's "quote". Sorry.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

MikeG.":1ubns91k said:


> Cheshirechappie":1ubns91k said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....... Basic discipline in schools would be a good start.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Have you some evidence that schools don't have good discipline? My wife has been teaching for nearly 35 years and says that discipline and respect are in excellent shape now, and that wasn't always the case last century. This isn't some elitist corner of a rich part of Britain, but a school on an estate in a difficult part of a large town.
Click to expand...


Apologies for not replying sooner, Mike. Had things to do this afternoon.

One example is my late sister's experience of living near one of the larger schools in the area. She found that attitude of the school's pupils reflected the attitude of the head teacher (and thus, by extension, the staff more generally) to discipline. One head, on hearing of damage to her front garden, took immediate action, and no further problems were experienced. The next head took a rather laid back approach ("kids will be kids, you know") resulting in a spate of problems in the area leading to local councillors becoming involved. The problems were only resolved when that head moved on - or was moved on.

That's anecdotal, and whilst absolutely true, is still anecdotal. This isn't anecdotal - it's a long-form discussion between a head teacher who was concerned about the state of education, and voiced her concerns in a very public forum - a Conservative Party conference. She went on to not just talk about her concerns, but do something about it - set up a free school, in inner-city Brent. The 'interviewers' are Francis Foster (a teacher himself) and Konstantin Kisin (a Russian), between them making up Triggernometry, a Youtube channel I've found most informative about current affairs. It's a long interview, but covers a lot of ground, and is well worth the time, I think. The question of discipline is covered fairly early on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cXtlS-6y5u4

NOTE - For the avoidance of doubt, I'm NOT trying to 'have a go' at teachers, most of whom just want to get on and teach, I suspect. I'm also glad to hear that your wife's experience is currently good.


----------



## FatmanG

Im beginning to think this forum is frequented by rich old men that have actually no idea wtf they are talking about. 
Discipline that you all refer to happened probably in a middle class loving home which is all very well and maybe character building. Unfortunately life isnt so for everyone and some of us are brought up in care homes or dont have a regular father to meter out this discipline you speak of. God some of you make me sick. Absolute w////////ers.
This wonderful era you talk of brings up god only knows how many cover ups. Jimmy Saville relied on your kind of mentality. 
VIOLENCE BREEDS VIOLENCE


----------



## Chris152

'The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for
authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place
of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their
households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They
contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties
at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.'

Socrates (allegedly).


----------



## Cheshirechappie

FatmanG":147bypya said:


> Im beginning to think this forum is frequented by rich old men that have actually no idea wtf they are talking about.
> Discipline that you all refer to happened probably in a middle class loving home which is all very well and maybe character building. Unfortunately life isnt so for everyone and some of us are brought up in care homes or dont have a regular father to meter out this discipline you speak of. God some of you make me sick. Absolute w////////ers.
> This wonderful era you talk of brings up god only knows how many cover ups. Jimmy Saville relied on your kind of mentality.
> VIOLENCE BREEDS VIOLENCE



That is precisely what I (and most of the others, I think) am NOT talking about.

Take the time to watch the YouTube interview I posted. Francis Foster makes the point that for some children growing up in less than perfect conditions, the structure of school can offer the one safe place they know, provided the general level of discipline is such that they can feel safe.


----------



## FatmanG

RUBBISH


----------



## ColeyS1

Very strange feeling right now. Fingers crossed the jobs on the to do list will still be there in a few months time. Has there been any mention from the government for helping the self employed yet?

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## Rorschach

Not yet, hoping for it myself otherwise I have zero income for the next few months at least.


----------



## That would work

FatmanG":2ldc5z54 said:


> RUBBISH


That's a foolish thing to say Fatman.
I've taught since 1986 in schools in African and several English schools.
I could could give many examples of where schools have provdied young people with a safe and stable environment that they crave. To suggest that that is rubbish is well....
Really???????


----------



## FatmanG

really so what do you propose the wrack for insubordination or the cane for laughing im interested in the proposals


----------



## Lons

FatmanG":tcmrw0ji said:


> Im beginning to think this forum is frequented by rich old men that have actually no idea wtf they are talking about.
> Discipline that you all refer to happened probably in a middle class loving home which is all very well and maybe character building. Unfortunately life isnt so for everyone and some of us are brought up in care homes or dont have a regular father to meter out this discipline you speak of. God some of you make me sick. Absolute w////////ers.
> This wonderful era you talk of brings up god only knows how many cover ups. Jimmy Saville relied on your kind of mentality.
> VIOLENCE BREEDS VIOLENCE


I'm not quite sure how you come to that conclusion tbh I think all I read just relates to personal experience. I seriously doubt any person on this forum would make light of a person who presumably had a hard time in care and certainly not condone the actions of Jimmy Saville or others like him.

I'll clarify my situation if it helps. I'm eldest of 9 kids, had 4 brothers & 4 sisters. My father was a coal miner, mother was Austrian and we lived in a council house in a small mining village where she was treated with hostility because anyone with German language was hated after the war. She won people over and my parents really struggled financially however I was brought up to respect anyone in authority, grown ups in general and a smack across a clothed backside was a reasonable lesson to learn when deserved.

Rich, you're having a laugh surely.


----------



## MikeG.

Could we take the schools discipline thing to another thread, folks. This subject doesn't need diversion.

-

I'm in day 7, if you count the rather mild start last Monday. After day 5 I was starting to win, and until lunchtime today I was well ahead on points. Then bam.........my opponent started landing some good punches, and has certainly taken the last round on points. I'm dizzy, got my temperature back, and now I have an upset stomach to add to the list. This fight isn't over until it's over. I feel pretty rough right now.

My wife seems to have had it all a bit worse than me. Higher temperature, bigger cough, worse lethargy. Things aren't great this evening.


----------



## Lons

Sorry to hear that Mike, you won't be flavour of the month for bringing it home then?


----------



## Bm101

My best wishes Mike. 
These are worrying times all. 
Health, finances, kids and family. The very things we hold dearest are under threat and worse we feel powerless to protect those things.
Be strong. Take a breath. Think before you speak. Community is everything at every level and that's coming from someone who has practised social distancing for years. I'm a social distancing fookin hipster in relative terms. 
Be nice. It's much harder than being scared and far more rewarding to all involved.
Regards
Stay tough.
Chris


----------



## FatmanG

Lons":v9ee0oql said:


> FatmanG":v9ee0oql said:
> 
> 
> 
> Im beginning to think this forum is frequented by rich old men that have actually no idea wtf they are talking about.
> Discipline that you all refer to happened probably in a middle class loving home which is all very well and maybe character building. Unfortunately life isnt so for everyone and some of us are brought up in care homes or dont have a regular father to meter out this discipline you speak of. God some of you make me sick. Absolute w////////ers.
> This wonderful era you talk of brings up god only knows how many cover ups. Jimmy Saville relied on your kind of mentality.
> VIOLENCE BREEDS VIOLENCE
> 
> 
> 
> I'm not quite sure how you come to that conclusion tbh I think all I read just relates to personal experience. I seriously doubt any person on this forum would make light of a person who presumably had a hard time in care and certainly not condone the actions of Jimmy Saville or others like him.
> 
> 
> I'll clarify my situation if it helps. I'm eldest of 9 kids, had 4 brothers & 4 sisters. My father was a coal miner, mother was Austrian and we lived in a council house in a small mining village where she was treated with hostility because anyone with German language was hated after the war. She won people over and my parents really struggled financially however I was brought up to respect anyone in authority, grown ups in general and a smack across a clothed backside was a reasonable lesson to learn when deserved.
> 
> Rich, you're having a laugh surely.
Click to expand...


anyone who advocates the use of physical violence as discipline is old and usually public schooled educated. you know absolutely nothing about my situation. i further add your talking absolute sheeeite


----------



## Blackswanwood

FatmanG - it’s clearly something you feel strongly about and I know you are worried about Covid19 so may not be your usual self. I also err towards your view. Let’s not turn this into a slanging match though.


----------



## FatmanG

i wont say anything else mate i genuinely appreciate your post


----------



## thetyreman

MikeG.":1gieerb1 said:


> Could we take the schools discipline thing to another thread, folks. This subject doesn't need diversion.
> 
> -
> 
> I'm in day 7, if you count the rather mild start last Monday. After day 5 I was starting to win, and until lunchtime today I was well ahead on points. Then bam.........my opponent started landing some good punches, and has certainly taken the last round on points. I'm dizzy, got my temperature back, and now I have an upset stomach to add to the list. This fight isn't over until it's over. I feel pretty rough right now.
> 
> My wife seems to have had it all a bit worse than me. Higher temperature, bigger cough, worse lethargy. Things aren't great this evening.



hope you and your wife feel better soon Mike, I have a friend who has had it and he said similar things about the symptoms, around 7 days before you feel normal again, lets hope the worst of it is over for you, take it easy.


----------



## Blackswanwood

FatmanG":1udf3bji said:


> i wont say anything else mate i genuinely appreciate your post



Top man - I’m in your neck of the woods so when all this kerfuffle blows over let’s resolve to catch up and talk woodwork!


----------



## Cheshirechappie

New measures to combat coronavirus.

All non-essential shops shut.
Only leave home for essential reasons (buy food, medicines, etc) or once a day for exercise.
All gatherings of more than two people banned, except for funerals.
Sweeping police powers.

Review after three weeks.

Strewth. Not really got head round this, yet.

Article with video of PM's statement.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ckdown-uk/


----------



## Lons

FatmanG
I agree with what Blackswanwood said, I've in the past liked and thanked for some of your posts so what's been said has clearly hit a nerve and I won't respond in kind to what I felt was an out of character comment as you're right I don't know your circumstances although tbh I never suggested that I did. 
To put the record straight however I'm a very long way from public school education. I did go to grammar school via 11+ exam and managed Uni but certainly had to work for it. 

Whatever it was you suffered was clearly very wrong and I could never attempt to understand.
I don't want a slanging match, we have enough to worry about at the minute so I won't comment again either, lets hope we can leave it at that.
cheers
Bob


----------



## SammyQ

Mike, thinking of you Mucker. I won't give gratuitous - and probably useless - advice, but I'm hoping like hell your "fit as a fiddle" mantra a few days ago also reflects your T-cells capabilities. 

Sam


----------



## MikeG.

Thanks Sam.


----------



## AES

I appreciate the points raised about Covid 19 and related loss of income Gents, and I wish everyone well (have already done so, "pages" back), and am happy to do so again.

But sorry, I must just correct Fatman G's comments when it comes to my own personal experience and history:

Point 1 - I was NEVER educated in a public school - it was a "Technical Secondary Modern" (I failed my11 Plus);

Point 2 - From the age of 11 until almost 16 I WAS brought up in care (Kent County Council).

END OF THAT "TRUE STORY" (as far as I'm concerned).


----------



## Jake

Cheshirechappie":2320r5tg said:


> New measures to combat coronavirus.
> 
> All non-essential shops shut.
> Only leave home for essential reasons (buy food, medicines, etc) or once a day for exercise.
> All gatherings of more than two people banned, except for funerals.
> Sweeping police powers.
> 
> Review after three weeks.
> 
> Strewth. Not really got head round this, yet.
> 
> Article with video of PM's statement.
> 
> https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... ckdown-uk/



It is good. This is what should have been done weeks ago. The delivery was still a bit half-hearted and with mixed messaging, but it is the only way to taper it off. We'll still lose lots of lives we could at least have pushed out to right on the timeline in the hope of treatments or a vaccine had we done containment with aggressive purpose, and then suppression when it was obvious it should be done rather than 3-4 weeks later (especially in London as the hot spot). We have squandered all the advantage we had of seeing Asian countries and then other European countries attempting to deal with this weeks in advance of us, but have at last finally joined some sort of serious attempt to slow it down.


----------



## Jake

Catching up on thread - first and foremost best wishes to Mike and wife to turn the corner soon.

Weird few pages of powerless people being aggressively blamed for not knowing better and needing to be corporal punished, when the powerful should be excused for following shonky science and not checking it properly (and criticising them is vindictive apparently).

Unfortunately, rather than listening to the not negligent consensus version of science, the government has waited until NHS capacity is threatened and given the lag time will be exceeded. But, better for most of UK than us in London so good luck (and not too much godspeed) to all.


----------



## Steve Maskery

Mike and Mrs Mike - very best wishes.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":1rjeh93q said:


> Catching up on thread - first and foremost best wishes to Mike and wife to turn the corner soon.
> 
> *Weird few pages of powerless people being aggressively blamed for not knowing better and needing to be corporal punished, when the powerful should be excused for following shonky science and not checking it properly (and criticising them is vindictive apparently)*.
> 
> Unfortunately, rather than listening to the not negligent consensus version of science, the government has waited until NHS capacity is threatened and given the lag time will be exceeded. But, better for most of UK than us in London so good luck (and not too much godspeed) to all.



What utter rubbish, Jacob. All people are empowered with free will and the ability to do the right thing as opposed to the wrong thing. "I blame it all on society so nobody can ever blame me" is a nonsensical mantra that we've been hearing for years and great harm has been done in its name too. We have duties to our fellows as well as rights.

And sadly, on your part this just represents a transparent an pathetic attempt to politicise the matter.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Andy Kev.":2vspl0ox said:


> Jake":2vspl0ox said:
> 
> 
> 
> Catching up on thread - first and foremost best wishes to Mike and wife to turn the corner soon.
> 
> *Weird few pages of powerless people being aggressively blamed for not knowing better and needing to be corporal punished, when the powerful should be excused for following shonky science and not checking it properly (and criticising them is vindictive apparently)*.
> 
> Unfortunately, rather than listening to the not negligent consensus version of science, the government has waited until NHS capacity is threatened and given the lag time will be exceeded. But, better for most of UK than us in London so good luck (and not too much godspeed) to all.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> What utter rubbish, Jacob. All people are empowered with free will and the ability to do the right thing as opposed to the wrong thing. "I blame it all on society so nobody can ever blame me" is a nonsensical mantra that we've been hearing for years and great harm has been done in its name too. We have duties to our fellows as well as rights.
> 
> And sadly, on your part this just represents a transparent an pathetic attempt to politicise the matter.
Click to expand...



Easy, tiger. I don't think Jake=Jacob. 

I am a big fan of holding people accountable. If they don't like the heat, they don't have to be in the kitchen. Important people are paid the big bucks to make the importent decisions - if they make a hash of it, they really should suffer a bit more than a press conference where they smugly admit "mistakes were made", and "a thorough review" will ensure that "moving forward", it won't happen again, promise. Thy could have chosen a career in something a little less significant if they didn't want the pressure. 

Jake has suggested previously that the government, by following the wrong advice, probably for political reasons, will result in a significant number of people dying unnecessarily, to put it bluntly. What level of accountability should be used for that sort of cock--up? How much accountability is too much accountability?


----------



## lurker

MikeG,

Can I add my best wishes.
Also you are the only person I know who has gone down with this and the insight you are providing is IMHO quite valuable.
I have to admit (with hindsight) I was being a bit complacent about the whole thing, but your experience has made me think again.

By the way, how is your friend?


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I do wish politicians and people giving advice and telling us the law would be more careful. A few days ago I watched B.J. tell the nation that state schools would close and private schools and nurseries would be asked to close. Ten minutes later on the BBC news it was announced that all schools and nurseries had been ordered to close. Last night B.J. told us we were allowed to leave our homes for one form of excercise - so we could go for several walks ( for instance) the way I heard that - and today we are told that we can leave home once only. This is undoubtedly what he meant, but these things shouldn't be ambiguous. Pedantic, I know.
I heard within not many minutes to take ibuprofen if we didn't have paracetamol, and from another source that ibuprofen can affect the immune system and not to take it.


----------



## eezageeza

This short video, made by a couple of family members, rams home the 'stay at home' message.
Preaching to the converted here I guess, but please give it a minute of your time, and share it as widely as you are able.
It might just save a life.
Thanks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXrUbZCdQzU


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":fv4da6mk said:


> Easy, tiger. I don't think Jake=Jacob.
> 
> I am a big fan of holding people accountable. If they don't like the heat, they don't have to be in the kitchen. Important people are paid the big bucks to make the importent decisions - if they make a hash of it, they really should suffer a bit more than a press conference where they smugly admit "mistakes were made", and "a thorough review" will ensure that "moving forward", it won't happen again, promise. Thy could have chosen a career in something a little less significant if they didn't want the pressure.
> 
> Jake has suggested previously that the government, by following the wrong advice, probably for political reasons, will result in a significant number of people dying unnecessarily, to put it bluntly. What level of accountability should be used for that sort of cock--up? How much accountability is too much accountability?



You really think that Jake is not Jacob? I think I'd put a tenner on it and I'm not given to betting.

But there are two things here: the culpability of the public and that of the politicians, as you have indicated.

I make no distinction between a barely articulate, over-tattood, overweight moron stuffing his/her trolley full at Tescos and a relatively well to do moron deciding that none of the restrictions could possibly apply to him/her and so deciding to hoof it off in the Range Rover to the holiday home at the weekend. To suggest that either of these groups (and all shades between) are powerless is utterly ridiculous and I imagine that not one person - including Jake - seriously believes otherwise.

As for the government, I think there are a number of factors to consider:

a. "Following the wrong advice". They can only go on the advice given. The problem is that the politicians are usually not intellectually equipped to assess the worth of the advice. That's why they get it from experts who are supposed to be up to speed. One of the reasons for this is the abysmal lack of science graduates in politics and the civil service and indeed in the wider establishment in general. By coincidence I'm currently bashing through Vol 3 of the official biography of Margaret Thatcher (a chemistry graduate). She was the first significant politician to latch on to the importance of environmental issues and so she organised a conference with expert scientists and insisted that her cabinet ministers attend. The latter group distinguished themselves by not having a clue about what was being explained to them and looking mightily bored throughout. I'm not suggesting that having a degree in PPE makes you incapable of taking sensible decisions but it does mean that it is unlikely that you will be able to evaluate scientific advice in any meaningful way.

b. We do of course not yet know what advice was proffered. I would imagine that a range of possible courses of action were presented. FWIW I would have gone for a complete shutdown of the country from the word go, long after having banned flights from China and Italy. However, politicians have to weigh up the politics of a course of action. It may have been judged that the public would simply not accept something so drastic. And you can typically imagine the politicians saying to the experts, "Look we need something which will have maximum effect while causing minimal disruption" and so they get the best possible compromise from the experts. What has actually happened will probably ease the way for producing really robust plans for the next outbreak and that might involve something of a much higher lethality.

c. As for the establishment trying to dodge the blame, they will be wasting their time as people who will want to blame them will do it anyway. What they do need to do in the inevitable enquiry is be completely transparent, honest and open. The public is not stupid and will understand that this whole thing is unprecedented in modern times. People will tolerate honest mistakes but they won't like being lied to.

d. Large chunks of the public have shown themselves to be simply silly. bm101's account of his neighbour's garden party was almost surreal, to me at least. We live in an age where many people seem to think that a long healthy life and great happiness are automatically theirs as of right and what's more somebody else should provide it. They've just had a wake up call to the effect that that is not the case. Some of them will be too thick to understand that. Finally this thread - which lest we forget is made up of relatively thinking people - has shown that a little knowledge, while not necessarily being a dangerous thing, certainly leads to people preaching about things of which they have little or no understanding (see also remarks about cabinet ministers above).

Finally, best wishes to MikeG and his mrs. I hope you're both seeing light at the end of the viral tunnel.


----------



## RogerS

Jake":2fve8vak said:


> ..
> Weird few pages of powerless people being aggressively blamed for not knowing better and needing to be corporal punished, .....



They are NOT powerless. *They* can decide whether or not *they*...not the state...not Bojo...but *THEY* are going to behave in a civilised manner.

Too many example. Thick morons socialising on the beach. At crowded markets. An oxygen-steaing oaf in Tesco's, when told he couldn't have five boxes of eggs but only two, threw the other three onto the floor, stamped on them and snarled 'Well, if I can't have them then no-one else can'. You can't reason with people like this.

Given the current situation they need to be removed from society - either temporarily or permanently. I favour the latter.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":3kj9sxi7 said:


> ....
> 
> You really think that Jake is not Jacob? I think I'd put a tenner on it and I'm not given to betting.
> 
> ...



You're being very childish. I know both of them and can assure you that they are two different people.


----------



## Andy Kev.

RogerS":2j5wv1f0 said:


> Andy Kev.":2j5wv1f0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....
> 
> You really think that Jake is not Jacob? I think I'd put a tenner on it and I'm not given to betting.
> 
> ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You're being very childish. I know both of them and can assure you that they are two different people.
Click to expand...

I can assure you that there is nothing childish about making a judgement bases on content and style. 

However, I'm happy to stand corrected in the light of your personal knowledge of both of them. (I don't think there's any point in amending what I posted as it would render related posts unintelligible.)


----------



## Suffolkboy

What are the odds that nine months from now there is a baby boom?


----------



## Phil Pascoe

What are the odds that in weeks from now there is a divorce boom?


----------



## Suffolkboy

HAHA!!


----------



## MikeG.

lurker":1axifcz0 said:


> .........Can I add my best wishes.
> Also you are the only person I know who has gone down with this and the insight you are providing is IMHO quite valuable.
> I have to admit (with hindsight) I was being a bit complacent about the whole thing, but your experience has made me think again.
> 
> By the way, how is your friend?




Of the 4 of us with the lurgy, my friend (who is 10 years older than me) appears to have recovered earliest, and my wife possibly has it worse than anyone. His wife has lost her voice, but otherwise has it fairly mildly.


----------



## MikeG.

Just to add to the picture, think of this for a while. I have a great friend in the Peak District who was away climbing in a remote part of Australia when he got an urgent "get home now" message from his kids. Three days of travel got him back to the airport, and on to a flight home, which was crowded with people coughing. He got himself home on Thursday. His wife had bowel and intestinal cancer last year, and after chemo and various other treatments has virtually no immune system. They use separate doors, live in separate halves of the house, and speak at 3 or 4 metres distance only in the garden, or on the phone. Never mind 12 weeks, she will have to stay isolated until there is a cure or a vaccine, and he will have to stay as isolated as her for as long as her, for fear of bringing this bug home. If she catches this bug now she will die.

Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.


----------



## Bodgers

MikeG.":16n7degp said:


> Just to add to the picture, think of this for a while. I have a great friend in the Peak District who was away climbing in a remote part of Australia when he got an urgent "get home now" message from his kids. Three days of travel got him back to the airport, and on to a flight home, which was crowded with people coughing. He got himself home on Thursday. His wife had bowel and intestinal cancer last year, and after chemo and various other treatments has virtually no immune system. They use separate doors, live in separate halves of the house, and speak at 3 or 4 metres distance only in the garden, or on the phone. Never mind 12 weeks, she will have to stay isolated until there is a cure or a vaccine, and he will have to stay as isolated as her for as long as her, for fear of bringing this bug home. If she catches this bug now she will die.
> 
> Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50.



True, everyone needs to do their best to avoid this thing, regardless of age or health. 

Hope you get through this 7-10 day point ok, seems to be the critical phase for a lot.


----------



## FatmanG

Blackswanwood":j8fji5zu said:


> FatmanG":j8fji5zu said:
> 
> 
> 
> i wont say anything else mate i genuinely appreciate your post
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Top man - I’m in your neck of the woods so when all this kerfuffle blows over let’s resolve to catch up and talk woodwork!
Click to expand...

I would be honoured


----------



## Selwyn

Phil Pascoe":24klzv5i said:


> I do wish politicians and people giving advice and telling us the law would be more careful. A few days ago I watched B.J. tell the nation that state schools would close and private schools and nurseries would be asked to close. Ten minutes later on the BBC news it was announced that all schools and nurseries had been ordered to close. Last night B.J. told us we were allowed to leave our homes for one form of excercise - so we could go for several walks ( for instance) the way I heard that - and today we are told that we can leave home once only. This is undoubtedly what he meant, but these things shouldn't be ambiguous. Pedantic, I know.
> I heard within not many minutes to take ibuprofen if we didn't have paracetamol, and from another source that ibuprofen can affect the immune system and not to take it.



Only a total fool would think its the same form of excercise multiple times over versus one excercise event. For goodness sake the whole point of this is to reduce your exposure whilst still being compassionate towards the need to get some fresh air


----------



## Phil Pascoe

So he should have said one excerise period and not one form of excercise. My point.


----------



## Irish Rover

Phil Pascoe":2jmw4rgq said:


> So he should have said one excerise period and not one form of excercise. My point.



Are you being deliberately stupid to get some attention?


----------



## FatmanG

I'm confused I live directly opposite a building site for new builds. I was under the impression the govt had ordered non essential workers to stay at home. There are the same vans parked in the street the same inconsiderate plumber parked in my disabled space and the work continues.


----------



## ColeyS1

Irish Rover":1jqm6pm6 said:


> Phil Pascoe":1jqm6pm6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> So he should have said one excerise period and not one form of excercise. My point.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Are you being deliberately stupid to get some attention?
Click to expand...

Dont talk to Phil with that tone please.

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## Nigel Burden

FatmanG":202jafsj said:


> I'm confused I live directly opposite a building site for new builds. I was under the impression the govt had ordered non essential workers to stay at home. There are the same vans parked in the street the same inconsiderate plumber parked in my disabled space and the work continues.



A neighbour of mine works for a local groundworks firm who are working on new build on the edge of the village. I noticed that he had gone to work this morning but was back home by about 9.30, so presumably they are not working.

Nigel.


----------



## FatmanG

They are definitely working Nigel I am watching a bloke laying bricks on scaffolding as I type the numbers are definitely reduced and the constant numbers of trucks arriving /leavingisnt there but sure as eggs are eggs there's work happening.


----------



## Rorschach

Some building work is going on near us, I saw the builder turn up this morning, pack things away, collect some tools and then leave. I am guessing that although he is safe as he almost always works alone, he probably can't get enough supplies delivered now.


----------



## FatmanG

I don't want to turn into victor meldrew or similar and start posting more photos of what's going on but I have just taken several pics of workers working like I say I'm confused are they essential workers or are they not?


----------



## Lons

I heard on the news this morning that they hadn't asked construction sites to close though they're soon going to run out of materials as the merchants shut down.

I'd report that plumber to the authorities as he's breaking the law unless he has a blue badge. Maybe send him a text to that mobile number first politely asking him park elsewhere might make him think.


----------



## Lons

We aren't the alone in stupidity and slow government reactions. Following a 'phone chat with my brother in Sydney yesterday we got an email from my sister in law, he're a section of that. The medical conditions she refers to are very serious and put both her parents in the very high risk category! 

_Wish mum and dad would self isolate but they keep popping up to the shops because They are bored. They are driving me crazy and I am perfectly able to deliver the groceries and help them out but every time I turn my back on them they toddle off to the shops. They both have medical conditions and are highly susceptible.
We have three asthmatics in our house me Hannah and Fin so not jolly for all of us and our government is giving us lots of lovely mixed messages we have been told to close all essential services but apparently bottle shops and cafes are essential as Well as shops and pharmacies so at the moment coffee shops are open with take aways and businesses are open with skeleton staff.
Schools ‘should close’ but if you need to send your kids to school you can!!!! Very frustrating.
Funniest thing was when we heard bottle shops would close down yesterday (Which now they are not because they are ‘essential’). All the guys in our street were calling each other going crazy.... ‘go now.... get the alcohol’ _


----------



## FatmanG

Lons":1vmjeqr9 said:


> I heard on the news this morning that they hadn't asked construction sites to close though they're soon going to run out of materials as the merchants shut down.
> *
> I'd report that plumber to the authorities as he's breaking the law unless he has a blue badge. Maybe send him a text to that mobile number first politely asking him park elsewhere might make him think.*




I asked him politely to park elsewhere as that was the only place I could be picked up safely the other side in front of my house is a bus stop. He told me to basically to buzz off and soon started to puff his chest. I wished at the time it was 10 years ago for one I wouldn't of felt so useless


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":d4kyeshc said:


> RogerS":d4kyeshc said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":d4kyeshc said:
> 
> 
> 
> ....
> 
> You really think that Jake is not Jacob? I think I'd put a tenner on it and I'm not given to betting.
> 
> ...
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You're being very childish. I know both of them and can assure you that they are two different people.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I can assure you that there is nothing childish about making a judgement bases on content and style.
Click to expand...


This is an excellent proxy for the quality of your judgement.


----------



## Lons

FatmanG":q26a43mt said:


> I asked him politely to park elsewhere as that was the only place I could be picked up safely the other side in front of my house is a bus stop. He told me to basically to buzz off and soon started to puff his chest. I wished at the time it was 10 years ago for one I wouldn't of felt so useless


Abuse of disabled spaces is a pet hate!
Maybe stick the photo up on facebook and email to the police. His name and number are all over it and he might not like that too much.
I'd still be inclined to message him first though with the photo if you can, no face to face contact. Depends if you want to risk confrontation.


----------



## Trevanion

Andy Kev.":2c7mswuw said:


> Trainee neophyte":2c7mswuw said:
> 
> 
> 
> Easy, tiger. I don't think Jake=Jacob.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You really think that Jake is not Jacob? I think I'd put a tenner on it and I'm not given to betting.
Click to expand...


Nah, They're clearly not the same person.


----------



## sploo

MikeG.":3uv9r34c said:


> Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.


Indeed. Mild (in this instance) means not needing to be on a ventilator in hospital. Though to be honest, my wife (NHS doctor) is currently more worried about the lack of basic paper masks than ventilators.

Helpfully they have received some official guidance from the GMC how to cope in the face of insufficient protective equipment... in not-that-many-more words it's basically "send in the youngest healthiest doctor, or the one who's most expendable". I sh*t you not.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Lons":2bxedbcp said:


> Abuse of disabled spaces is a pet hate!


I did get told not to park in a disabled space privately owned car park because I wasn't displaying a blue badge. This was despite my very obvious lack of lower limbs.


----------



## AES

Blimey, if that's really true sploo (sorry! - and I'm NOT doubting you) then that's really awful.

As a genuine Q, just how difficult is it for a firm (paper making company, obviously) to make such masks, on a 24 hour shifts basis if necessary? At first sight anyway, such masks look simple enough. And yeah, OK, there's the problem of distributing the finished product to hospitals, etc, all around the country after production. But we are after all, as someone has already pointed out, pretty much on a "war" footing aren't we?

So how much assistance is being provided by the military in such non-violent tasks in UK? I do known that in terms of numbers, the UK military is but a shadow of its former self, but in the Army for example, isn't there something called the Royal Corp of Logistics (or similar name)?


----------



## Trevanion

I'm not sure if someone's already mentioned this or not...

I honestly cannot see how they could've done anything more two weeks ago than what they've already done. The majority of the country including myself was practically in denial about the consequences, "Bah, It won't get that bad here" and absolutely no restrictions would've been followed if they came two weeks ago, and if they were enforced by the police/army there would've been riots which would've probably resulted in even more cases of the virus as you don't exactly have social distancing in a riot.

There needed to be a level of fear before they could enact these policies, unfortunately the fear is measured in deaths.


----------



## stuartpaul

sploo":2s82xz84 said:


> MikeG.":2s82xz84 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.
> 
> 
> 
> Indeed. Mild (in this instance) means not needing to be on a ventilator in hospital. Though to be honest, my wife (NHS doctor) is currently more worried about the lack of basic paper masks than ventilators.
> 
> Helpfully they have received some official guidance from the GMC how to cope in the face of insufficient protective equipment... in not-that-many-more words it's basically "send in the youngest healthiest doctor, or the one who's most expendable". I sh*t you not.
Click to expand...

My wife (nurse) came home last night spitting feathers due to the lack of PPE on her ward.

The distribution has been/is abso-pineapple-lutely useless. This is a known issue and has been for some time so this lack is inexcusable. 

When I get it (and it's when not if) I want to find Hancock and sneeze on him.


----------



## RogerS

Trevanion":16mov4vf said:


> I'm not sure if someone's already mentioned this or not...
> 
> I honestly cannot see how they could've done anything more two weeks ago than what they've already done. .....



Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start. 

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.

Closed the schools...shall I continue ?

Hancock is a waste of space.


----------



## Bodgers

sploo":8z9zsf8e said:


> MikeG.":8z9zsf8e said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just add to that the fact that rough as it has been for me, I am still in the "mild" category. When people hear this is a mild disease for 80% who get it, all that means is that they recover at home without having to be admitted to hospital. Don't get fooled by that description. The mild form of the disease that I have got would kill most of your mothers and fathers if you are over, say, 50. Do whatever you can to keep them safe.
> 
> 
> 
> Indeed. Mild (in this instance) means not needing to be on a ventilator in hospital. Though to be honest, my wife (NHS doctor) is currently more worried about the lack of basic paper masks than ventilators.
> 
> Helpfully they have received some official guidance from the GMC how to cope in the face of insufficient protective equipment... in not-that-many-more words it's basically "send in the youngest healthiest doctor, or the one who's most expendable". I sh*t you not.
Click to expand...


I don't think needing mechanical ventilation was required for that severe category. Hospitalisation with a variety of support was enough e.g. being given oxygen. Not everyone in hospital for this ends up on an ventilator, I think that would be "serious or critical", which was single digit percentages.


----------



## Selwyn

ColeyS1":2hl6upzd said:


> Irish Rover":2hl6upzd said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Phil Pascoe":2hl6upzd said:
> 
> 
> 
> So he should have said one excerise period and not one form of excercise. My point.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Are you being deliberately stupid to get some attention?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Dont talk to Phil with that tone please.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


Why not? It was such a daft thing to say


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":3rdi00fz said:


> This is an excellent proxy for the quality of your judgement.



Proxy? Are you sure you've got the word you need?

In any event I'm quite happy to accept that my judgement proved false as pointed out by Roger. And given that you don't deny that you are not Jacob, the matter appears to be most firmly closed.


----------



## MikeG.

Selwyn":1cnhkvti said:


> .......Why not?........



Because it is completely against the rules. And because this is a serious thread on a serious subject that doesn't need diverting by a little inter-personal tiff.


----------



## Trevanion

RogerS":1aq729d7 said:


> Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start.



I wouldn't be surprised there's enough PPE in the country to supply who/what actually needs it ten-times over, it's the selfish lunatics that have been buying it and stockpiling it that are at fault. I've got an unopened pack of Wurth paper masks and a box of nitrile gloves which I'm really not going to be using for a while (They're mainly for other people anyway, I use a proper P3 face mask), which I've offered free to a good home provided it is actually for a legible cause that needs it and not hoarding.



RogerS":1aq729d7 said:


> Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.
> 
> Closed the schools...shall I continue ?



Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.

Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants? Garden parties like BM101's Bill or meet up in an abandoned warehouse for a right grand water-up like some young people *I know* are doing now around here.

Close the schools and everything else so that people can look after their kids? "Ah, we'll all just go out to the park or beach or something" Like they've been doing around here... 

Trying to enforce it properly two weeks ago would've been nigh-on impossible without having to shoot people, even I can see that.


----------



## D_W

FatmanG":36ovway3 said:


> Lons":36ovway3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I heard on the news this morning that they hadn't asked construction sites to close though they're soon going to run out of materials as the merchants shut down.
> *
> I'd report that plumber to the authorities as he's breaking the law unless he has a blue badge. Maybe send him a text to that mobile number first politely asking him park elsewhere might make him think.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I asked him politely to park elsewhere as that was the only place I could be picked up safely the other side in front of my house is a bus stop. He told me to basically to buzz off and soon started to puff his chest. I wished at the time it was 10 years ago for one I wouldn't of felt so useless
Click to expand...


Here in the states, if that was a designated spot, it would take little time to have that plumber nailed. 

In my state (the outbreak is different state to state, even county to county, so we all have different rules right now), plumbers and repairmen are allowed to do emergency or repair work, but not new construction. Possible that we'd see plumbers on the job here installing furnaces and such if it's necessary. Large construction sites are shut. 

Dad works at a golf course in retirement - they are forced to close. I asked him what he's going to do without a part time day job, and he said "going to go play golf because the owner said he didn't see a reason why we couldn't". Fair chance if he's seen, the police will question him - we'll see how that goes. Should be open and shut since he works there - it's not an open business.


----------



## sploo

AES":2gcbzxyz said:


> Blimey, if that's really true sploo (sorry! - and I'm NOT doubting you) then that's really awful.


Sadly it's completely true. Some of the official guidance notes they're getting are works of art in terms of comedy tact. As an example, when faced with too many patients to treat, the doctors are advised to consider "co-morbidity factors". In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, then give the ventilator to patient B (because A will probably die anyway - or take up the kit for ages). Obviously doctors have to make these sorts of serious moral decisions normally, but this is going to be extreme.



AES":2gcbzxyz said:


> As a genuine Q, just how difficult is it for a firm (paper making company, obviously) to make such masks, on a 24 hour shifts basis if necessary? At first sight anyway, such masks look simple enough. And yeah, OK, there's the problem of distributing the finished product to hospitals, etc, all around the country after production. But we are after all, as someone has already pointed out, pretty much on a "war" footing aren't we?


That's a difficult one to answer. Probably not that hard to make, but maybe harder to prove FFP3 certification.

On the question of "what could have been done"; there's been many weeks of notice of impeding problems from around the work (Italy alone is probably ~2 weeks ahead of us in terms of cases). Years of NHS underfunding, plus incompetent ministers are a major negative factor in our preparedness. As for the public's lack of action in self-isolating... well, we have just spent the last few years politically telling the public not to listen to experts, so perhaps the apathy isn't surprising.

Add to that, the mixed and mumbled message we've had from Boris for several days, I can understand why many probably feel it's not really that serious. It is; the info my wife's getting from colleagues in Italy is chilling.


----------



## sploo

stuartpaul":1udqsvub said:


> My wife (nurse) came home last night spitting feathers due to the lack of PPE on her ward.
> 
> The distribution has been/is abso-pineapple-lutely useless. This is a known issue and has been for some time so this lack is inexcusable.


Absolutely. Now, of course, we couldn't expect the government and NHS management to magic up another 10,000 ventilators in a fortnight; that's not reasonable, but just making sure there's enough sodding paper masks for medical staff is pretty darn basic.


----------



## sploo

Trevanion":1sim39ki said:


> Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.


Here's the problem though; if those 13 people are out and about, and each one infects just two people during their day, then by day one there will be 13+2*13=39 people infected.

If those 39 now each infect another two people on the next day then that's 39*2+39=117. By day three it's 351, then 1,053, then 3,159, then 9,477..

By day 14 you've theoretically infected your whole 60M population (62,178,597).

Obviously it's unlikely to be that high, but you get the picture. The long incubation time of Covid-19 means people can be infecting others for many days before they come down with symptoms.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2gp3wd55 said:


> Jake":2gp3wd55 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is an excellent proxy for the quality of your judgement.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Proxy? Are you sure you've got the word you need?
Click to expand...


This is an excellent proxy for the depth of your understanding.


----------



## RogerS

Trevanion":3bqe3xgm said:


> RogerS":3bqe3xgm said:
> 
> 
> 
> Now where shall I start ? Given that they had a massive heads-up from what had happened in China and Italy, perhaps getting enough PPE equipment in the right place and the right numbers might be a start.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I wouldn't be surprised there's enough PPE in the country to supply who/what actually needs it ten-times over, it's the selfish lunatics that have been buying it and stockpiling it that are at fault. I've got an unopened pack of Wurth paper masks and a box of nitrile gloves which I'm really not going to be using for a while (They're mainly for other people anyway, I use a proper P3 face mask), which I've offered free to a good home provided it is actually for a legible cause that needs it and not hoarding.
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":3bqe3xgm said:
> 
> 
> 
> Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants etc.
> 
> Closed the schools...shall I continue ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Nobody would've taken it seriously though, "Oh there's only 13 cases in a country of 60M" I know that because I was saying the exact same thing because I'm a massive cynic.
> 
> Closed the pubs, bars and restaurants? Garden parties like BM101's Bill or meet up in an abandoned warehouse for a right grand water-up like some young people *I know* are doing now around here.
> 
> Close the schools and everything else so that people can look after their kids? "Ah, we'll all just go out to the park or beach or something" Like they've been doing around here...
> 
> Trying to enforce it properly two weeks ago would've been nigh-on impossible without having to shoot people, even I can see that.
Click to expand...


Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

I forgot to mention insufficient testing, by the way, but I guess you'll discount that as well.


----------



## RogerS

sploo":37c4ucrs said:


> ..... In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, ....


 And the definition of 'old' will be much younger than over-70. Much.


----------



## AES

Thanks for that sploo.

About certification: Yup, I can see that, but can't some tests/checks be loosened (slightly) or speeded up under the circumstances ?(different field, but I've NEVER known any certification authority anywhere that works other than 4 days 9-5 and half day Fridays)!

But I must say that "Why we are where "we" are" interests me less - at present - than what can now be done to get out of this mess. 

In reality, though it MAY (IMO) be said that UK acted "too little, too late", I don't really see all that much difference between today's situation and ours in Switzerland. 

We MAY have a bit more in terms of emergency resources packed away (I think that's so, for example we're still very strict on Civil Defence here), but it shouldn't be forgotten that we're a country of only approx. 8 m people (about the same as Greater London), AND you can drive from one side to the other (top/bottom or side/side) in about 2-3 hours in any direction.

A bit different for people "up" in, say, Scotland or "down" in Cornwall.


----------



## sploo

RogerS":1es2r75r said:


> sploo":1es2r75r said:
> 
> 
> 
> ..... In other words; if patient A is old or already ill, and patient B isn't, ....
> 
> 
> 
> And the definition of 'old' will be much younger than over-70. Much.
Click to expand...

Depends on how overloaded the NHS gets I guess, though the mortality percentages don't seem to really ramp up until 70+ (https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-ca ... ity-rates/)


----------



## sploo

AES":1s7zzcff said:


> Thanks for that sploo.
> 
> About certification: Yup, I can see that, but can't some tests/checks be loosened (slightly) or speeded up under the circumstances ?(different field, but I've NEVER known any certification authority anywhere that works other than 4 days 9-5 and half day Fridays)!


Really hard one to answer. If you were given a choice of no mask, or a mask claimed to be FPP3 (but not certified as such) you'd definitely take the mask. Where the legal lines lie (in terms of responsibility of management and procurement) would probably be more blurred, and ripe for litigation.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Seen elsewhere - a possible tiny glimmer of optimism from Italy. The number of reported new cases has declined for the last couple of days.

https://order-order.com/2020/03/24/glim ... ay-passed/


----------



## lurker

FatmanG":a759wtyx said:


> I'm confused I live directly opposite a building site for new builds. I was under the impression the govt had ordered non essential workers to stay at home. There are the same vans parked in the street the same inconsiderate plumber parked in my disabled space and the work continues.



I e mailed the address on the van saying there was a photo on the internet.

Here is reply

Please can you tell me where and I'll look into it 

S.Parker 
Managing Director
Parker Plumbing and Heating Ltd
Tel 01706 818669
Fax 01706 818225 
Mobile 07957 363188 
http://www.parkerphs.co.uk


So over to fmg


----------



## FatmanG

lurker":2efc4ikh said:


> FatmanG":2efc4ikh said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm confused I live directly opposite a building site for new builds. I was under the impression the govt had ordered non essential workers to stay at home. There are the same vans parked in the street the same inconsiderate plumber parked in my disabled space and the work continues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I e mailed the address on the van saying there was a photo on the internet.
> 
> Here is reply
> 
> Please can you tell me where and I'll look into it
> 
> S.Parker
> Managing Director
> Parker Plumbing and Heating Ltd
> Tel 01706 818669
> Fax 01706 818225
> 
> Mobile 07957 363188
> http://www.parkerphs.co.uk
Click to expand...


Tell him the golf course new build, Bodmin chase ls10
Considering the aggression previous I hope this doesn't turn ugly I doubt the police will give priority to a parking space row at the present time.


----------



## ScaredyCat

This guy has far more self control than I ever would..

https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1242469526786228225

.


----------



## lurker

It’s your call mate, I am doing nothing more.


----------



## Rorschach

ScaredyCat":21z91y1x said:


> This guy has far more self control than I ever would..
> 
> https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1242469526786228225
> 
> .



It started ok, going to get food shopping, fine if careful, walk along the beach, most likely fine. Not far off our weekend actually, we went to shops (several unfortunately as stock was still poor) and then had a day out walking in the countryside.
She ruined it by visiting her elderly friend. Fair enough if she isn't bothered about dying, problem is all the people she will infect in the meantime or people hurt trying to save her. Very sad.


----------



## sploo

ScaredyCat":4hbnky3w said:


> This guy has far more self control than I ever would..
> 
> https://twitter.com/MarieAnnUK/status/1242469526786228225
> 
> .


Boris Johnson is indeed an imbecile, but f**k me some people are really dumb. Sadly it's novel coronavirus, not novel moronavirus; it won't only kill the stupid.


----------



## FatmanG

No problem and thanks I think I shall see how it pans out the next time he arrives and parks as to the next move.


----------



## Trevanion

RogerS":jsvy1995 said:


> Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.
> 
> I forgot to mention insufficient testing, by the way, but I guess you'll discount that as well.



I'm not discounting anything, Roger. By reasonable logic, yes, we as a country should've come to an absolute grinding halt two weeks ago but it is the majority of the general public which are unreasonable, myself included hence that very selfish comment in hindsight about "paying for it for the rest of my life" I made the other day.

I don't really know enough about the testing to comment on whether there was insufficient effort or not.

Nothing we can say here will change what has happened in the last two weeks, we're all in this together and it seems to me the only real thing we can do now is to look the truth in the face and deal with the situation that's on our lap right this second, not the one that was here two weeks ago.



sploo":jsvy1995 said:


> Obviously it's unlikely to be that high, but you get the picture. The long incubation time of Covid-19 means people can be infecting others for many days before they come down with symptoms.



That's my point, I do get the picture now (I think). I didn't a couple of days ago and I certainly wouldn't have two weeks ago.


----------



## sploo

Trevanion":220xfl77 said:


> That's my point, I do get the picture now (I think). I didn't a couple of days ago and I certainly wouldn't have two weeks ago.


Fair point. I can't but help thinking that a simple visualisation/animation showing person 1 infecting persons 2 and 3, then persons 2 and 3 infecting 4 & 5 and 6 & 7 respectively (and so on) would have made the transmission problem clear to the public. Easy for me to sit at home and say the country should have been shut down a fortnight ago though; as I'm not the one carrying the can of responsibility.


----------



## nev

PLEASE try and keep on topic Gents - amongst other posts e.g. Inconsiderate muppet parking really has nowt to do with this.

Please, also, keep it polite and friendly, someone says something you disagree with, either offer a polite alternative or ignore it.

Thank you.

Swift recovery Mike.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Cheshirechappie":1sujwlbx said:


> Seen elsewhere - a possible tiny glimmer of optimism from Italy. The number of reported new cases has declined for the last couple of days.
> 
> https://order-order.com/2020/03/24/glim ... ay-passed/



Possibly false optimism, sadly. According to Radio 4's PM Programme, reported deaths in last 24hrs 743. No mention of number of new cases, though.

Edit to add - new cases 5,249 - a slight increase on previous two days.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Trevanion":1wa5mkz4 said:


> By reasonable logic, yes, we as a country should've come to an absolute grinding halt two weeks ago but it is the majority of the general public which are unreasonable, myself included hence that very selfish comment in hindsight about "paying for it for the rest of my life" I made the other day.



In fairness, I'm not sure that point is that selfish. It's almost certainly going to be true to some extent, and not selfish because you won't be the only taxpayer contributing.

Hopefully we can minimise the additional Sovereign debt by bringing the epidemic under control as quickly as possible, and getting normal economic life going again.

However, maybe that's a matter for later. Indeed, there will be many matters for later, such as why the health system was so woefully incapable of absorbing a shock whilst the food system coped (just about, with a bit of creaking here and there), and whether the draconian measures imposed yesterday were all really necessary. Also, why the level of panic over something more akin to flu or pneumonia (both of which are factors in significant numbers of annual deaths, but don't warrant anywhere near the same measures) than to ebola or similar (which most definitely would).

Whatever we think of the current strategy, I think it would be irresponsible to ignore or flout it at the moment. That's the chosen path, and we must all tread it, for now at least. We can ask our questions later.


----------



## loftyhermes

For the idiots out there, the best thing I've seen about social distancing.


----------



## doctor Bob

Just to lighten the mood a bit, few days old but made me laugh.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q0PB...cDRi4NHY19QNJiGwCco2w51vhk4hEGffguTseSyU5VRto


----------



## Fitzroy

loftyhermes":2nak6j4v said:


> For the idiots out there, the best thing I've seen about social distancing.



Gosh, that’s a bit close to the bone, but gets the point a across. 

F.


----------



## Duncan A

Cheshirechappie":1bwpy6pu said:


> Cheshirechappie":1bwpy6pu said:
> 
> 
> 
> Seen elsewhere - a possible tiny glimmer of optimism from Italy. The number of reported new cases has declined for the last couple of days.
> 
> https://order-order.com/2020/03/24/glim ... ay-passed/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Possibly false optimism, sadly. According to Radio 4's PM Programme, reported deaths in last 24hrs 743. No mention of number of new cases, though.
> 
> Edit to add - new cases 5,249 - a slight increase on previous two days.
Click to expand...


For those who are stuck at home, bored this website gives you plenty of scope to track the progress of the virus in painful detail: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.

Mike G: hope you and Mrs. G recover soon; pleased to see that being laid low has not affected the lucidity of your posts!

Duncan


----------



## stuartpaul

For illustration purposes. My missus reports of two elderly males (mid 70’s and early 80’s) both with significant current health issues recovering well from the virus.

One in fact showed no symptoms at all and it was only testing that revealed he actually had it (already in isolation due to previous contact).

So it isn’t a foregone conclusion that old farts with health issues are automatically goners!


----------



## doctor Bob

Furloughed all staff today.
Social responsibility is pretty painful when you see the rest of the working world on industrial sites carrying on as normal.
Strange feeling as we have heaps of work and are still getting orders but can't make or fit it.
Shiitting my pants still, unbelievable that you can spend 16 years building a business the right way, slow growth, no loans, no greed, looking after staff and clients, and then the potential for it all to disappear in a few months. Very hard to deal with.

No idea whether I'm supposed to pay staff or wait for portal to open, spoke to my accountant and he has no idea. Elderly parents as well, always do their online shopping for them until greedy crunts decided to take all the online slots as soon as they were released, so now a 2hr drive each way twice a week, thanks a lot you greedy barstards. Went shopping on way home for lunch tommorrow, pineapple all. 
I had to laugh at the bloke having a fag with a mask on ........... bet he wishes his lungs weren't so ballsed up.


----------



## NickM

I really feel for you (and others in your position) Bob.

We were about to push the button on a kitchen and bathroom revamp but I think we’ll have to hold off. We’ve now got the whole family working/schooling at home so it seems a bad time to turn the house upside down, and that’s before we get to thinking about the risk for us/workmen being in the house and out and about getting supplies (if they can) etc.

I don’t think we have much choice but i feel bad for the people we’ve been dealing with. I think all we can do is tell them the work will be there when things hopefully get back to normal. I hope their businesses make it through this and that we can support them when we can.

I really hope you get through this OK.


----------



## Lons

I'm pleased my missus doesn't knit


----------



## RogerS

Lons":2oqqo3r8 said:


> I'm pleased my missus doesn't knit




Now, that's what I call 'gallows' humour :lol: =D>


----------



## Harbo

This is not spam, please take it seriously 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Sent by my SIL who is a Consultant Surgeon.

Rod


----------



## Bodgers

stuartpaul":29zc1l72 said:


> For illustration purposes. My missus reports of two elderly males (mid 70’s and early 80’s) both with significant current health issues recovering well from the virus.
> 
> One in fact showed no symptoms at all and it was only testing that revealed he actually had it (already in isolation due to previous contact).
> 
> So it isn’t a foregone conclusion that old farts with health issues are automatically goners!


I did wonder about this - the death rate for 70+ was listed at about 15-18% I seem to remember, so yes you'd have thought there must be older ones making it, but you never hear of it.


----------



## Jake

Cheshirechappie":1bnspcg7 said:


> Also, why the level of panic over something more akin to flu or pneumonia (both of which are factors in significant numbers of annual deaths, but don't warrant anywhere near the same measures) than to ebola or similar (which most definitely would).



Ebola is a horrible disease but epidemics of it are relatively easy to contain as it isn't that transmissible. 

This is both much more serious than your usual seasonal flu - 10 times as deadly, more infectious. The combination is vicious, notwithstanding the majority will only have relatively mild symptoms (meaning from more or less nothing to still being able to breath well enough not to need oxygen) and many may be asymptomatic. It's the rapidity of spread that leads to swamping of the health care system that makes it even more super deadly as the death rate goes up from ~1% of confirmed cases to ~6% (not counting people with other conditions dying from absence of treatment). Even at ~1% if all confirmed cases get full treatment, this would be far worse than any flu we've seen since Spanish flu a century ago (when healthcare was very different).


----------



## sploo

Cheshirechappie":63kj0n6n said:


> However, maybe that's a matter for later. Indeed, there will be many matters for later, such as why the health system was so woefully incapable of absorbing a shock...


Unfortunately, a decade of deliberate underfunding tends to do that.



Cheshirechappie":63kj0n6n said:


> Also, why the level of panic over something more akin to flu or pneumonia (both of which are factors in significant numbers of annual deaths, but don't warrant anywhere near the same measures) than to ebola or similar (which most definitely would).


Easily transmitted, long incubation time (so you spread it without knowing), pretty nasty morbidity rate, no vaccine. Left to run its course (i.e. without vaccines or our current social isolation) the worldwide death toll would be pretty scary.



doctor Bob":63kj0n6n said:


> Furloughed all staff today.
> Social responsibility is pretty painful when you see the rest of the working world on industrial sites carrying on as normal.
> Strange feeling as we have heaps of work and are still getting orders but can't make or fit it.
> Shiitting my pants still, unbelievable that you can spend 16 years building a business the right way, slow growth, no loans, no greed, looking after staff and clients, and then the potential for it all to disappear in a few months. Very hard to deal with.


That sucks. Sorry to hear.



Bodgers":63kj0n6n said:


> I did wonder about this - the death rate for 70+ was listed at about 15-18% I seem to remember, so yes you'd have thought there must be older ones making it, but you never hear of it.


There are figures for those that have "recovered" (I don't know whether that means virus free but with lung damage, or actually healthy again) but I've not seen those figures broken down by age. Certainly there's no 100% guarantee of good or bad outcome in any age group; merely percentages.


----------



## DrPhill

doctor Bob":25csuks5 said:


> Furloughed all staff today.
> ......
> Shiitting my pants still, unbelievable that you can spend 16 years building a business the right way, slow growth, no loans, no greed, looking after staff and clients, and then the potential for it all to disappear in a few months. Very hard to deal with.


You have my sympathies. But don't rule out the good karma you have built with your staff, past and present. You may find that your fairness and consideration will be repaid when you need it most.

I work for a great company. I have only been there less than a year, but they have shown such support and social awareness that I think their chances of weathering a financial storm are much higher than companies with merely acceptable policies. They have built up a huge amount of 'social capital' in their workforce. I for one would rather work temporarily at half pay to get them back on their feet than at my previous company for double pay.

So you may find that your years of 'doing it right' were the best possible investment. I certainly hope so.


----------



## MikeG.

I'd like to join in the chorus of commiserations and best wishes, Bob. Having been around your workshop with you this one strikes closer to home than most. You may be losing your workforce temporarily, and your income , but your reputation amongst your clientel is the thing you won't lose. When this is all over I'll have a little bet that your main issue will be trying to keep up with the pent up demand.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

doctor Bob":1ebd2ccy said:


> Furloughed all staff today.
> Social responsibility is pretty painful when you see the rest of the working world on industrial sites carrying on as normal.
> Strange feeling as we have heaps of work and are still getting orders but can't make or fit it.
> Shiitting my pants still, unbelievable that you can spend 16 years building a business the right way, slow growth, no loans, no greed, looking after staff and clients, and then the potential for it all to disappear in a few months. Very hard to deal with.
> 
> No idea whether I'm supposed to pay staff or wait for portal to open, spoke to my accountant and he has no idea. Elderly parents as well, always do their online shopping for them until greedy crunts decided to take all the online slots as soon as they were released, so now a 2hr drive each way twice a week, thanks a lot you greedy barstards. Went shopping on way home for lunch tommorrow, pineapple all.
> I had to laugh at the bloke having a fag with a mask on ........... bet he wishes his lungs weren't so ballsed up.



Running a business is a risk - not everyone can do it, which is why the vast majority of people are employees, accepting lower rewards for higher security. This is the point where you earn your money by making the really hard, unpalatable decisions.

Unsolicited random advice from the internet is never helpful, but I would note that you still have the equipment, and you still have the knowledge, so if you shut down your cash flow soon enough, there can still be a business later. If you hemorrhage money now trying to stay the course, or by being charitable, then the bank will take it all away, and some man in a suit will get all the benefit of your years of effort. 

I'm in much the same boat - I'm going to have to survive the year on almost zero income - it concentrates the thinking somewhat.


----------



## MikeG.

I'm going to tentatively declare that I'm better. I've got a pathetic half-hearted cold, which is how the guy I caught it from also finished his illness, and I'm a bit washed out, but my temperature has all but returned to normal, the cough has all but gone, and all the other symptoms have disappeared. My wife appears much better, too.


----------



## Rorschach

Great news Mike!


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":yrfe9ll5 said:


> I'm going to tentatively declare that I'm better. I've got a pathetic half-hearted cold, which is how the guy I caught it from also finished his illness, and I'm a bit washed out, but my temperature has all but returned to normal, the cough has all but gone, and all the other symptoms have disappeared. My wife appears much better, too.


----------



## craigs

Good to hear Mike. Stay well!


----------



## John Brown

Pleased to hear it.


----------



## FatmanG

Nice one Mike some good news at a time like this gives us all a boost and some hope.


----------



## Doug B

loftyhermes":1toky59r said:


> For the idiots out there, the best thing I've seen about social distancing.




Excellent =D> 

Shame Mr Trump hasn’t seen this as I read this morning he wants the churches full this easter, bet the supposed germaphobe himself won’t be joining these congregations


----------



## Nigel Burden

Lons":42pxnvyk said:


> I'm pleased my missus doesn't knit



My missus does. She's very busy knitting for a lady with shops in Leicester and Lichfield. Although she's obviously shut them, the orders are still there. 

Nigel.


----------



## Chris152

This is worth bearing in mind once you finally get back with your shopping:




The link's here:
https://video.foxnews.com/v/61428514120 ... show-clips


----------



## AES

MikeG.":yveptjke said:


> I'm going to tentatively declare that I'm better. I've got a pathetic half-hearted cold, which is how the guy I caught it from also finished his illness, and I'm a bit washed out, but my temperature has all but returned to normal, the cough has all but gone, and all the other symptoms have disappeared. My wife appears much better, too.



Well done that man. All the best to you and yours.


----------



## Nelsun

Great news Mr & Mrs G!

Figured this article may be of interest. It covers just how cleverly / deviously it spreads. It does underline the need for testing and how, in small population centres, it can help all but irradicate the [insert favourite expletive] thing. Best wishes to all.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/


----------



## Adam9453

We shut our factory yesterday and furloughed all the staff, the vast majority of our clients responded to our notification email by saying their sites were either closed or closing so I think the rest of the construction industry will follow suit soon. We’ve had a mixed response from our suppliers, some have closed and others were still open but for how long they couldn’t say. Doing the right thing now will reward us with prosperity in due course DrBob, we just have to hold our nerve at the moment. Glad to hear you and your wife are on the mend mike


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Nelsun":1zpk49jo said:


> Great news Mr & Mrs G!
> 
> Figured this article may be of interest. It covers just how cleverly / deviously it spreads. It does underline the need for testing and how, in small population centres, it can help all but irradicate the [insert favourite expletive] thing. Best wishes to all.
> 
> https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... ve-got-it/



Thanks for that, Nelsun. It's one of most informative and measured articles I've seen on the matter.

Well worth a read, folks.


----------



## Nigel Burden

DrPhill":2j3gy1jv said:


> doctor Bob":2j3gy1jv said:
> 
> 
> 
> Furloughed all staff today.
> ......
> Shiitting my pants still, unbelievable that you can spend 16 years building a business the right way, slow growth, no loans, no greed, looking after staff and clients, and then the potential for it all to disappear in a few months. Very hard to deal with.
> 
> 
> 
> You have my sympathies. But don't rule out the good karma you have built with your staff, past and present. You may find that your fairness and consideration will be repaid when you need it most.
> 
> I work for a great company. I have only been there less than a year, but they have shown such support and social awareness that I think their chances of weathering a financial storm are much higher than companies with merely acceptable policies. They have built up a huge amount of 'social capital' in their workforce. I for one would rather work temporarily at half pay to get them back on their feet than at my previous company for double pay.
> 
> So you may find that your years of 'doing it right' were the best possible investment. I certainly hope so.
Click to expand...


I would second that. 

If you have a good reputation your customers will wait for you, and as others are in the same position there's no competition.

My wife has good employers, but her previous employer, totally different.

My daughter is a veterinary nurse. They have kept two nurses on working half a week each, my daughter is one of them. The other two nurses have been furloughed as they both have asthma. The vets are taking it in turns to work shifts as they can only cover emergency work.

Nigel.


----------



## Nigel Burden

MikeG.":1i9ee5o2 said:


> I'm going to tentatively declare that I'm better. I've got a pathetic half-hearted cold, which is how the guy I caught it from also finished his illness, and I'm a bit washed out, but my temperature has all but returned to normal, the cough has all but gone, and all the other symptoms have disappeared. My wife appears much better, too.



That's good Mike.  

Nigel.


----------



## AES

@Dr. Bob: I can well imagine your feelings regarding your business (with all that word entails) in the current situation.

But I believe that the previous posters may well be correct. My own business was very small compared to yours (e.g. nil employees), but when I was forced to liquidate my company due to ill health (my better half said it was time anyway as I was 69 then, going on 70) I REALLY missed it (still do to be honest).

But it seems that my rep was even better than I knew because for at least a year or more afterwards I was getting calls & E-mails saying "we've heard you've been ill but are you now OK to just .....". Very flattering, even though I had to say no, sorry, each time. That to me was confirmation that I'd been doing at least some things right ;-)

From what you say about your business you'll be in much the same position when this situation recovers, and as already said by others above, at least your machinery and tooling plus know-how (EDIT: AND contacts) will all still be extant - AND I suggest former employees will be lining up at the door to re-join you too!

Sounds like you'll deserve it too. All the best.


----------



## selectortone

sploo":1bal5miw said:


> Bodgers":1bal5miw said:
> 
> 
> 
> I did wonder about this - the death rate for 70+ was listed at about 15-18% I seem to remember, so yes you'd have thought there must be older ones making it, but you never hear of it.
> 
> 
> 
> There are figures for those that have "recovered" (I don't know whether that means virus free but with lung damage, or actually healthy again) but I've not seen those figures broken down by age. Certainly there's no 100% guarantee of good or bad outcome in any age group; merely percentages.
Click to expand...


Unless my maths and addled brain are deceiving me, those figure say that 82-85% of over 70s are recovering.


----------



## sploo

selectortone":awb6o2k3 said:


> sploo":awb6o2k3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bodgers":awb6o2k3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I did wonder about this - the death rate for 70+ was listed at about 15-18% I seem to remember, so yes you'd have thought there must be older ones making it, but you never hear of it.
> 
> 
> 
> There are figures for those that have "recovered" (I don't know whether that means virus free but with lung damage, or actually healthy again) but I've not seen those figures broken down by age. Certainly there's no 100% guarantee of good or bad outcome in any age group; merely percentages.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Unless my maths and addled brain are deceiving me, those figure say that 82-85% of over 70s are recovering.
Click to expand...

You need a bit more data than that for "broken down" though...


----------



## Bodgers

MikeG.":1q7dgjls said:


> I'm going to tentatively declare that I'm better. I've got a pathetic half-hearted cold, which is how the guy I caught it from also finished his illness, and I'm a bit washed out, but my temperature has all but returned to normal, the cough has all but gone, and all the other symptoms have disappeared. My wife appears much better, too.


Good news. It looks like if you make it to day 7 without heading to hospital most are in the clear.

I suppose you still have to isolate a while yet?


----------



## selectortone

Read some folks' earlier concerns about MOTs - I've just read on the Guardian website that there will be a 6 month MOT amnesty. (It's in their live Coronavirus blog)


----------



## SammyQ

Good news Mike. 

Sam


----------



## lurker

I have builders in my empty bungalow today, two man business.
They have other clients at the front of the queue, but have declined to go there as there are residents. 
Our place is empty and we will not visit until 36 hours after they leave.

They are removing chimney stack and chimney breast and fixing the resulting roof.

I need them to do further work at a later date, but brought this job forward so they were earning at least this week.


----------



## Steve Maskery

You'll need to un-mute it, but:
https://twitter.com/OnowayDebbie/status ... 3415484420

S


----------



## MikeG.

Bodgers":29lqppwj said:


> .......]Good news. It looks like if you make it to day 7 without heading to hospital most are in the clear.



An epidemiologist I'm in touch with gave that as 8 to 10 days, but yes, that's about the gist of it.



> I suppose you still have to isolate a while yet?



Until next Tuesday evening/ Wednesday morning. It's the 14 day thing if you're in a household of more than 1.


----------



## Nigel Burden

My daughter went to the local Waitrose this morning. All very orderly and pleasant, but someone has posted online that Tesco at Fleetsbridge Poole had to close as they couldn't police the social distancing rules.

Nigel.


----------



## RogerS

Is anybody out there actually _doing_ any work from home. Judging by the number of sites that are overloaded - Wickes, for example - I think not.


----------



## RogerS

Nigel Burden":1ko1f8do said:


> My daughter went to the local Waitrose this morning. All very orderly and pleasant, but someone has posted online that Tesco at Fleetsbridge Poole had to close as they couldn't police the social distancing rules.
> 
> Nigel.



That's your Tesco customer for you.


----------



## transatlantic

RogerS":2nyhigex said:


> Is anybody out there actually _doing_ any work from home. Judging by the number of sites that are overloaded - Wickes, for example - I think not.



I am (IT). It's pretty much work as normal  ...


----------



## D_W

Same - generally do financial and compliance type work. Just less convenient at home as I don't have unlimited paper to print drafts, and no access to the giant magic scanner at work to get all of the workpapers stored digitally. Have been doing about the same amount of work, but in isolation, it's a bit mind numbing.


----------



## ScaredyCat

RogerS":3e3ic3nv said:


> Is anybody out there actually _doing_ any work from home. Judging by the number of sites that are overloaded - Wickes, for example - I think not.



Developer so the only change is I get fewer interruptions..

Yay, I think.


.


----------



## craigs

RogerS":38waysdo said:


> Is anybody out there actually _doing_ any work from home. Judging by the number of sites that are overloaded - Wickes, for example - I think not.



SAN/NAS engineer for a hosting Co., been WFH for the last 18 months so no change for me.


----------



## flying haggis

Prince Charles is self isolating with Covid 19


Prince Andrew is self isolating with Jenny 16....


----------



## transatlantic

The one really big benefit for me is no commute, so thats 90 minutes a day I get back. I'm also enjoying being able to finish up early, do some hobby stuff, and then do a bit more work later in the evening.

We have a set of core hours where we have to work/be available, but outside of that, can catch up our work hours when we want.


----------



## Rorschach

Work has pretty much dried up for me as expected. I am being productive with my time though. I have materials preparation I can do as well as a few workshop improvements. 
I purchases a storage garage earlier in the year, with this fine weather we are having I am getting on with the repairs that are needed. Before this all started I re-pointed the brick work, wish I hadn't really as it would have been much more pleasant to do that now but there we go. Perfect weather for getting the paining done, just hope I have enough paint! Luckily I don't have to look at it so functional is all that's important, it may well get painted in 2 different colours :lol:


----------



## craigs

one thing that concerns me with pandemic is whether my house purchase takes a dump or not, hopefully the worst will be over when im supposed to move in July...but who knows :/


----------



## GrahamF

Had a strange day yesterday. Flew out of Lisbon T2 to Manchester on Ryanair's last flight on that route. Only about 30 passengers and no trolley-dolly service. We were the only flight within T2, no other desks open or passengers and the same when we arrived at Manchester T3, no other flights arriving at the same time. Have been in lock-down in Portugal and will now have to isolate in case we picked anything up on the trip.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

craigsalisbury":24rm1vpt said:


> one thing that concerns me with pandemic is whether my house purchase takes a dump or not, hopefully the worst will be over when im supposed to move in July...but who knows :/


My daughter is looking to buy after May - she has her eye on two that have dropped £20,000 - 10% - in the last week.


----------



## lurker

MikeG,

Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.


----------



## craigs

Phil Pascoe":13tg5ew7 said:


> craigsalisbury":13tg5ew7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> one thing that concerns me with pandemic is whether my house purchase takes a dump or not, hopefully the worst will be over when im supposed to move in July...but who knows :/
> 
> 
> 
> My daughter is looking to buy after May - she has her eye on two that have dropped £20,000 - 10% - in the last week.
Click to expand...


Yeah, it's a good time if you haven't already started the process, but i'm a couple of weeks away from exchanging and i've already made workshop plans for the garage  trouble is anything can ruin it at this point.

Sorry for the thread hijack


----------



## Phil Pascoe

I purchased a world map and gave my wife a dart and said "throw this and wherever it lands I'm taking you for a holiday when this pandemic is over". 

Turns out we're spending two weeks behind the fridge.


----------



## MikeG.

lurker":oseddmqe said:


> MikeG,
> 
> Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.



No.

I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":1kffu26c said:


> lurker":1kffu26c said:
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG,
> 
> Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> 
> I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.
Click to expand...


If that is indeed the case then the mortality rates are far below what the media is reporting and my suspicions about this being overblown are probably correct. 
I notice today they announced the antibody testing will start soon. What if that does indeed show this has all been a massive over reaction? I suspect the numbers will be hidden if that is the case.


----------



## Deadeye

MikeG.":n9o10bcl said:


> lurker":n9o10bcl said:
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG,
> 
> Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> 
> I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.
Click to expand...


Unfortunately there's a very significant error bar on that 1% number, so not really a good estimate.
The hospital reporting is good - the deaths number is very accurate (and all tested); the cases number is pretty good (most have been tested, though not 100%).
Beyond that 111 is recording people who call and scoring symptoms - so some 'flu may be getting mis-categorised. But, conversely, some people with C19 are simply staying at home and not calling - and so avoid statistical immortality.
Once antibody testing is more widely available (allowing to test for having recovered rather than for the live virus) a much better picture of the epidemiology will emerge. There is also an ?Oxford University app that tracks health status and symptoms to try to approximate the incidence and spread parameters.
The 1% is a best estimate currently, based on 111 calls and subsequent hospitalisations - but the 111 calls are a data subset and not a wholly clean one.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":1kjj78qd said:


> If that is indeed the case then the mortality rates are far below what the media is reporting and my suspicions about this being overblown are probably correct.
> I notice today they announced the antibody testing will start soon. What if that does indeed show this has all been a massive over reaction? I suspect the numbers will be hidden if that is the case.


Something in the order of 12,000 deaths (just in Europe) in a bit over a month is hardly overblown. Granted the mortality percentage rate is difficult to pin down due to the fact that there are likely many people getting relatively minor symptoms, and not being officially recorded. As far as is known though; any of those mild cases could easily infect someone who might fare much worse - so the fact there are larger numbers of infections than recorded is still a worry.

EDIT...

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 indicates ~20k deaths worldwide, with ~440k confirmed cases => about 4.5% mortality rate. Say there's actually 100 times more people infected than officially recorded (i.e. most of them with mild symptoms); so that's 0.045% mortality rate.

The UK has ~60 million people, so if the infection spread widely that would still be 27k deaths in the UK alone. All of Europe together would be 10 times that number. Add Asia, and the USA and you're into a fair few million deaths.


----------



## D_W

MikeG.":1nfwdwrx said:


> lurker":1nfwdwrx said:
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG,
> 
> Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> 
> I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.
Click to expand...


This is a strange supposition. I often work with incomplete data, but am not an expert on epidemics. However, we have 60 confirmed cases in my county, and many folks who suggest the same (that the actual number is a hundred times that). 

The local university health system here has limited tests,but had tested 900 individuals at random who were asymptomatic or suspected to have another sickness and no family exposure to try to gauge community spread and they had no positive tests. Hard to tell how good that statistic is as it may not age well, but the expanded data that I've seen suggests fatalities will ultimately be something between just less than 1% of cases to slightly higher.

It is, in my opinion, dangerous for people to believe that there are 2-10K cases for each death or some such thing, as it keeps them from taking things seriously. In time, we'll get better numbers if there is widespread antibody testing at random, but that's probably pretty far off. 

Our local health system didn't use their study to declare that there's no community spread (vs. family spread, etc), they actually said they believe that there is some community spread, but that it's not significant at this point. 

They provide about half of the healthcare in a region with a few million people, and I guess their objective was to plan for capacity. I'm skeptical that the death rate will ultimately end up being a tiny fraction of a percent (between a tenth or a hundredth) as the now-recovered areas suggest otherwise.

As a ruse, I calculated the rough chance that the hospital system here could've done random testing of 900 people in a county with 1.2 million residents where 6000 were infected, and found no infections. The chance of that is about 1 in 100. True randomness in something like this is hard to achieve, of course. Is it possible that the 1 in 100 naysayers are correct? Sure. Is it likely? no. 

It's only by chance that the percentage of suspected reported cases (1 in 100) is about the same as the chance of such an assumption being right based on these 900 tests.


----------



## Rorschach

sploo":10xergdj said:


> Rorschach":10xergdj said:
> 
> 
> 
> If that is indeed the case then the mortality rates are far below what the media is reporting and my suspicions about this being overblown are probably correct.
> I notice today they announced the antibody testing will start soon. What if that does indeed show this has all been a massive over reaction? I suspect the numbers will be hidden if that is the case.
> 
> 
> 
> Something in the order of 12,000 deaths (just in Europe) in a bit over a month is hardly overblown. Granted the mortality percentage rate is difficult to pin down due to the fact that there are likely many people getting relatively minor symptoms, and not being officially recorded. As far as is known though; any of those mild cases could easily infect someone who might fare much worse - so the fact there are larger numbers of infections than recorded is still a worry.
> 
> EDIT...
> 
> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6 indicates ~20k deaths worldwide, with ~440k confirmed cases => about 4.5% mortality rate. Say there's actually 100 times more people infected than officially recorded (i.e. most of them with mild symptoms); so that's 0.045% mortality rate.
> 
> The UK has ~60 million people, so if the infection spread widely that would still be 27k deaths in the UK alone. All of Europe together would be 10 times that number. Add Asia, and the USA and you're into a fair few million deaths.
Click to expand...


If we end up with 27k deaths that is still only as bad as a bad flu winter and nobody worries about those numbers. Since they are not carrying out autopsies we also have no idea how many of the deaths are directly caused by the coronavirus or whether those people would have died from something else very shortly anyway. We'll never really know the true numbers. Remember almost 1700 people die in the UK everyday.


----------



## D_W

The reason we don't care that much about the flu compared to something like this is the death rate is much lower from the flu, and it generally doesn't impact otherwise healthy or somewhat compromised people. 

And because about 10% of cases seem to need serious or critical care (ventilation). Without a ventilator, a large % of those individuals die. Seasonal flu untreated just makes us feel terrible enough that we say things like "we wish we'd die". 

This version also seems to be identifying people who have curable conditions (younger folks with undiagnosed leukemia, for example) that would otherwise be diagnosed later.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":xewy34ln said:


> If we end up with 27k deaths that is still only as bad as a bad flu winter and nobody worries about those numbers. Since they are not carrying out autopsies we also have no idea how many of the deaths are directly caused by the coronavirus or whether those people would have died from something else very shortly anyway. We'll never really know the true numbers. Remember almost 1700 people die in the UK everyday.


My best answer is probably D_W's posts before and after yours above. If it does turn out to be ~1% mortality rate then that'll be really scary. 

Flu (though undeniably a killer) is small beans compared to Covid-19.


----------



## welly

Rorschach":l1skbhus said:


> If we end up with 27k deaths that is still only as bad as a bad flu winter and nobody worries about those numbers. Since they are not carrying out autopsies we also have no idea how many of the deaths are directly caused by the coronavirus or whether those people would have died from something else very shortly anyway. We'll never really know the true numbers. Remember almost 1700 people die in the UK everyday.



Given how quickly this virus has spread and how many people infected with the virus have died in only the past couple of weeks, do you honestly not see the urgency to contain this virus? And by whatever means necessary? It's a necessary inconvenience for a few months.


----------



## Rorschach

welly":38fuvqn9 said:


> Rorschach":38fuvqn9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> If we end up with 27k deaths that is still only as bad as a bad flu winter and nobody worries about those numbers. Since they are not carrying out autopsies we also have no idea how many of the deaths are directly caused by the coronavirus or whether those people would have died from something else very shortly anyway. We'll never really know the true numbers. Remember almost 1700 people die in the UK everyday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given how quickly this virus has spread and how many people infected with the virus have died in only the past couple of weeks, do you honestly not see the urgency to contain this virus? And by whatever means necessary? It's a necessary inconvenience for a few months.
Click to expand...


If things pan out as I think they will, no. I don't think it warrants the reaction we have had. If the country or rather the world goes into a deep depression as a result of the actions taken then more people will die and suffer from that than ever would have if less extreme action had been taken. I hope I am wrong and things turn out ok, but I don't think they will. It will be ironic as well as the people most likely to die (the elderly for the most part) won't suffer later on, yet the young who are most likely fairly safe will suffer greatly in the years to come.


----------



## D_W

The realistic alternative here (based on regions in italy and information from China and others) is that we would see:
* large numbers of deaths
* health care practitioners knocked out of service in great numbers
* a lack of ventilators, driving death rates up several times
* individuals out of work service to take care of themselves or relatives or dependents instead of staying in quarantine (many of us in quarantine continue to work - well, i'm not in quarantine -we're under a "stay at home" order)
* potential long-term health complications from surviving individuals who sustained permanent organ damage due to lack of ventilation, but who did not die
* much greater viral exposure before treatment is available leading to high community viral loads and an increased chance for mutation


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":tk2r4qsg said:


> welly":tk2r4qsg said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":tk2r4qsg said:
> 
> 
> 
> If we end up with 27k deaths that is still only as bad as a bad flu winter and nobody worries about those numbers. Since they are not carrying out autopsies we also have no idea how many of the deaths are directly caused by the coronavirus or whether those people would have died from something else very shortly anyway. We'll never really know the true numbers. Remember almost 1700 people die in the UK everyday.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Given how quickly this virus has spread and how many people infected with the virus have died in only the past couple of weeks, do you honestly not see the urgency to contain this virus? And by whatever means necessary? It's a necessary inconvenience for a few months.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> If things pan out as I think they will, no. I don't think it warrants the reaction we have had. If the country or rather the world goes into a deep depression as a result of the actions taken then more people will die and suffer from that than ever would have if less extreme action had been taken. I hope I am wrong and things turn out ok, but I don't think they will. It will be ironic as well as the people most likely to die (the elderly for the most part) won't suffer later on, yet the young who are most likely fairly safe will suffer greatly in the years to come.
Click to expand...


The percentage dying is unimportant. It's the rate at which the dying and near dying present at A&E which is the critical thing with this disease. If like flue it kills say 20,000 over the course of a winter, then you can react to it in the same sort of way you react to flu. If, however, those same 20,000, plus the near dying who survive, all turn up at A&E in the same fortnight, then not only will many more of them die, but so will lots of the other people who would be in A&E otherwise for all the normal reasons. When the government talks about protecting the NHS and flattening the curve, they really are meaning precisely what they say. They want the NHS to be able to cope, and if everyone turned up at A&E in the same fortnight, then the outcome would be like Italy.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":3gqc8i2m said:


> The percentage dying is unimportant. It's the rate at which the dying and near dying present at A&E which is the critical thing with this disease. If like flue it kills say 20,000 over the course of a winter, then you can react to it in the same sort of way you react to flu. If, however, those same 20,000, plus the near dying who survive, all turn up at A&E in the same fortnight, then not only will many more of them die, but so will lots of the other people who would be in A&E otherwise for all the normal reasons. When the government talks about protecting the NHS and flattening the curve, they really are meaning precisely what they say. They want the NHS to be able to cope, and if everyone turned up at A&E in the same fortnight, then the outcome would be like Italy.



I understand that, and I agree this is worse than flu in the sense that it does seem to spread much more easily, probably because you are contagious before symptoms show. Whether it is actually more deadly than flu remains to be seen but if hospitals are overwhelmed then the deaths would be higher than necessary. I am just not certain that these extreme measures are completely necessary to flatten the curve. The problem is we will never know, I just hope that in doing what we are doing we haven't made things worse for years or even decades to come.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

The initial strategy was to get to 60% infected (and hopefully recovered) to achieve herd immunity. This means in the UK abour 40m infected out of a population of 66m.

We don't know how many are asymptomatic or simply deal with a mild case at home - but assuming:

- only 10% require hospital treatment (4m)
- and of those 30% require ITU (1.2m)
- each ITU stay is 5 days after which you are out of trouble (or deceased)
- the number of ITU bed days will equal 6m
- if spread over 3 months (90 days) this is an average of ITU 67000 beds
- if spread over a year is an average of 17000 ITU beds

This is very crude and takes no account of peaks in demand. But what we know very clearly is that existing ITU capacity is utterly inadequate to deal with a need for 67000 beds, although 17000 may be achievable with rapid expansion of facilities and deferral of all but critical care for other ailments.

We may very likely have at least a partial lockdown for a year or more bringing constraints on freedom of movement, businesses not restarting, bankruptcies, job losses, failing economy etc. Most of us will also be close to the loss of relatives and friends.

At what point will sentiment change from "shielding the vulnerable" to reducing the economic price - saving lives costs money. I can only hope that improvements in treatment and possibly a vaccine will be available 12 months from now.


----------



## Bodgers

MikeG.":jdmbgdnc said:


> The percentage dying is unimportant. It's the rate at which the dying and near dying present at A&E which is the critical thing with this disease. If like flue it kills say 20,000 over the course of a winter, then you can react to it in the same sort of way you react to flu. If, however, those same 20,000, plus the near dying who survive, all turn up at A&E in the same fortnight, then not only will many more of them die, but so will lots of the other people who would be in A&E otherwise for all the normal reasons. When the government talks about protecting the NHS and flattening the curve, they really are meaning precisely what they say. They want the NHS to be able to cope, and if everyone turned up at A&E in the same fortnight, then the outcome would be like Italy.



Similar point made on the last Medlife Crises YouTube video. The curve he showed mapping the average risk of dying in a year, across age groups, against COVID-19 deaths mapped quite well, but the point being that with the virus it is all happening in a short period.


----------



## Blackswanwood

I ordered 3000 laptops at the start of last week to enable home working.

They arrived on Friday, had our software installed over the weekend are now all allocated and being used. I asked the project team today where they had come from - manufactured and shipped from China within 48hours.

Looks like China is getting back to normal but also felt a bit ironic!


----------



## D_W

Terry - Somerset":2e00doco said:


> The initial strategy was to get to 60% infected (and hopefully recovered) to achieve herd immunity. This means in the UK abour 40m infected out of a population of 66m.
> 
> We don't know how many are asymptomatic or simply deal with a mild case at home - but assuming:
> 
> - only 10% require hospital treatment (4m)
> - and of those 30% require ITU (1.2m)
> - each ITU stay is 5 days after which you are out of trouble (or deceased)
> - the number of ITU bed days will equal 6m
> - if spread over 3 months (90 days) this is an average of ITU 67000 beds
> - if spread over a year is an average of 17000 ITU beds
> 
> This is very crude and takes no account of peaks in demand. But what we know very clearly is that existing ITU capacity is utterly inadequate to deal with a need for 67000 beds, although 17000 may be achievable with rapid expansion of facilities and deferral of all but critical care for other ailments.
> 
> We may very likely have at least a partial lockdown for a year or more bringing constraints on freedom of movement, businesses not restarting, bankruptcies, job losses, failing economy etc. Most of us will also be close to the loss of relatives and friends.
> 
> At what point will sentiment change from "shielding the vulnerable" to reducing the economic price - saving lives costs money. I can only hope that improvements in treatment and possibly a vaccine will be available 12 months from now.



Antibody tests are apparently being made in droves now. Not in numbers that we can all take them, but presumably, the hope is that those with antibodies can be found and told "go back to doing what you do". 

No clue now that's implemented, though. temporary tattoo?


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Blackswanwood":336hhpmi said:


> I ordered 3000 laptops at the start of last week to enable home working.
> 
> They arrived on Friday, had our software installed over the weekend are now all allocated and being used. I asked the project team today where they had come from - manufactured and shipped from China within 48hours.
> 
> Looks like China is getting back to normal but also felt a bit ironic!



Let's hope none of those laptops have viruses.

(Sorry - couldn't resist!)


----------



## Chris152

Listening to Channel 4 news just now...

'We're taking expert scientific advice...' has become the stock mantra for ministers answering challenging questions from mainstream media about why non-essential workers are being allowed to work (decorators, construction etc.) - contrary to the pleads coming from front-line specialist medical staff working in nhs hospitals for all but essential workers to stay at home. 
Does that mean that the expert scientific advice is that construction/ buildings work of any sort is fine to go ahead? I'd like my living room white, I'm sick of magnolia.

eta - what I mean to say is, I'm sick of hearing ministers talking utter nonsense at a time of national crisis such as the one we're going through.


----------



## MikeG.

What's your problem with people working, Chris, so long as they follow the social distancing edicts? People have been told they can carry on working.


----------



## Chris152

It's incoherent, Mike. Stay at home to stop the spread of the virus - unless you are doing essential work. Or unless you're you're doing non-essential work (changing the colour of my walls, for example) that is arbitrarily designated fine.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I agree it doesn't make a lot of sense. B&Q and Screwfix are deemed essential, but we are all being told to stay at home except for essential supplies and medical stuff. I find it difficult to equate a tin of Dulux with Necessity. 
I bought some timber last week, but it is the dregs and I want to return it and get from new stock. The timberyard remains open (at least as of yesterday). But what am I going to tell a police officer who stops me with a roof-load of Unsorted? "It's OK, Officer I really _have_ to make some doors".


----------



## MikeG.

You guys are confusing two different issues. Shops have been closed, other than essential ones. Cinemas, pubs, restaurants etc have been closed, as well as schools. But other businesses haven't been divided into "essential" and "non-essential". That's only for shops. People can carry on going to work for other businesses. It's fair enough to have a go at businesses which aren't doing as they're told, but I'm pretty sanguine about people carrying on doing what they've been told they're allowed to do, so long as they do it in the way they've been told, which involves keeping away from other people.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

It's a bit of a fine line between saving lives by lock-down, and causing severe hardship and premature deaths by trashing the economy. Gummint is trying to balance on that tightrope. No easy 'right' answers to that conundrum.


----------



## lurker

MikeG.":10e7835i said:


> lurker":10e7835i said:
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG,
> 
> Just a thought, but have yours and your wife’s illnesses been captured by national statistics.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No.
> 
> I heard an expert on BBC yesterday say that the number of official cases are thought to represent about 1% of the actual number of cases. They can work back from the number of hospital admissions and arrive at a good estimate of the numbers in the country who have or have had the disease.
Click to expand...


Mentioned this to my practice nurse wife and she pointed to this 

https://covid.joinzoe.com/


----------



## Chris152

I think I'm saying that the advice doesn't add up in practice. For example, today more pictures were shown of a crowded underground and train stations. People going to work because they can't work from home but doing non-essential work (changing the colour of people's living rooms, for example) crowded into the same space as nhs workers who we need to stay healthy. Meanwhile, advice is to stay 2m apart. 
I wrote elsewhere in the forum today about builders working across the road from me. They were building something in a neighbour's house, to-ing and fro-ing, working close together (no choice given what they were lifting) and so on through the day. meanwhile, after I've taken the dog for a walk, I'm grounded, sat looking at these fellas getting on with their non-essential work, driving back and forth with stuff and all that goes with it.
Are the decisions that permit this to proceed actually led by scientific advice? Because the reality seems to lead to flouting that advice.


----------



## Chris152

Cheshirechappie":2x9uvzbp said:


> It's a bit of a fine line between saving lives by lock-down, and causing severe hardship and premature deaths by trashing the economy. Gummint is trying to balance on that tightrope. No easy 'right' answers to that conundrum.


I'd rather we'd gone for lock-down like those countries that now seem to be getting the virus under control. The economy's going to be trashed either way.


----------



## MikeG.

Well they haven't got permission to do that. They've specifically been told to keep 2 metres apart. If they can't do that, then they're breaking the rules. However, they aren't breaking the rules simply by being at work.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":1x6y4lyw said:


> Well they haven't got permission to do that. They've specifically been told to keep 2 metres apart. If they can't do that, then they're breaking the rules. However, they aren't breaking the rules simply by being at work.


But clearly, if the rules aren't working it's necessary to revisit/ strengthen the rules. Kind of like they did after the weekend when they realised people were going en masse to the parks etc. In another news report yesterday they showed the workers at Hinkley going about their business, too close together on site and crowded together in the canteen. This'll be happening up and down the country. Meanwhile, nhs specialists are begging people to stay at home.


----------



## porker

I think there can be some justification for keeping some places open like Screwfix et al. Thinking of emergency plumbers for example. A lot get their bits from these places and imagine a family where a toilet doesn't work or similar. Admit it is a sliding scale and painting the wall a different shade of grey probably isn't essential. 
Hopefully to show I am taking this seriously myself, I have been isolated for 2 weeks now due to our office being closed due to a suspected CV case. My builder has had to stop leaving my house with no heating and limited electrics and this evening we had a call from the hospital that my MIL is seriously ill (not CV but life threatening). We can't go to the hospital and my landline has developed a fault where we can't make outgoing calls. I feel for all of those being seriously impacted right now. I'm glad I'm not having to make the difficult decisions. There are massive implications to any decision right now and I think its too simple to think there are any easy solutions.


----------



## RogerS

There are some huge inconsistencies. I'd anticipated the lockdown on Monday and ordered in stuff that I needed from MKM Builders Merchants. Delivery Tuesday. Never arrived. Some feeble excuse. Closing down for the time being. Trying to source from elsewhere....

Travis (with whom I have an account)...only delivering to certain key locations such as hospitals etc.
Jewsons...deliver anywhere but only for existing trade customers.
Dove's ...ditto
Charlton's...ditto
Wickes ....anywhere but their website is in meltdown. Seems to me that a lot of home workers are treating this as a paid three-week extra holiday.

Today ...MKM announce they are now open.. Bit late as I confess to telling them where they could shove their order.


----------



## profchris

The need to do something fairly drastic was obvious, just from the statistics from China and Italy. In both those countries, the epicentres where hospitals were overwhelmed had death rates of nearly 10% of diagnosed cases, whilst elsewhere in those countries the rates were around 1% (source: _The Times_ late last week).

Once the rates of increase in diagnosed cases here followed the Wuhan and Lombardy curves, it was clear what would follow if no action was taken.

Whether the action was the right action, and how well it walks the tightrope between slowing the spread of coronavirus and causing recession (which will itself increase deaths though from different causes), we have no way of knowing until (probably) some years from now.

I do keep an eye out for encouraging news, as well as bad, and in the last few days have heard or read (sources: Times, New Scientist, BBC Radio 4):

a. The number of reported diagnoses and deaths in both Wuhan and Italy is dropping from their peak.

b. At least one respected academic scientist thinks it likely (based on modelling though) that most cases are asymptomatic and that as much as 50% of the UK population might already have been infected, in which case herd immunity is not far off. 

There's no way of checking this last of course until test kits for antibodies are widely available. Some tests (D-W's might have been this kind) only detect those with active virus, not those with antibodies. I heard online today that the UK kits which are said to be arriving very soon detect antibodies, but that's not a checked source. 

And apologies for not recalling precise sources, something which I normally can do. I have been working, and rather harder than normal. I'm responsible for the assessment and examination of 1,000+ students, which has required a certain amount of improvisation and re-invention. All I've achieved so far in wood is to cut and thickness several pairs of ukulele sides, and to destroy all but the current pair by trying to bend them to shape


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":npua8ssv said:


> I think I'm saying that the advice doesn't add up in practice. For example, today more pictures were shown of a crowded underground and train stations. People going to work because they can't work from home but doing non-essential work (changing the colour of people's living rooms, for example) crowded into the same space as nhs workers who we need to stay healthy. Meanwhile, advice is to stay 2m apart.
> I wrote elsewhere in the forum today about builders working across the road from me. They were building something in a neighbour's house, to-ing and fro-ing, working close together (no choice given what they were lifting) and so on through the day. meanwhile, after I've taken the dog for a walk, I'm grounded, sat looking at these fellas getting on with their non-essential work, driving back and forth with stuff and all that goes with it.
> Are the decisions that permit this to proceed actually led by scientific advice? Because the reality seems to lead to flouting that advice.


I think you have to be nuts to be using the underground if you are worried about catching the virus yourself or worried about the possibility of you infecting others. But ... nobody would be forcing me to get on the underground trains.

I suppose the problem is that there is a view that a lot of people simply have to get into London to make it work and therefore the tube is available. I wouldn't but a lot of people are what looks to me like daft. I don't blame the government for their daftness.

There's a building site in full swing on the opposite side of the river from where I live. I can't see too much of a problem with that given that in the open air the workers can easily stay out of each other's way. And I presume that they are committed to limiting the possibilities of getting in close proximity to each other.

The other side of the coin is that in those shops which are open e.g. bakeries, people are being very sensible and keeping their distance from each other. The supermarket has even got tape on the floor to mark where people should stand while queuing for the checkout.

A sense of proportion can be maintained with just a little thought.


----------



## MikeK

The hardware store in my town is open, but access is restricted. I watched from the safety of my truck for a while while eating my takeaway lunch, and every customer is stopped at the front door and asked what they want. A store employee then disappears into the store and returns a few minutes later with what might be the item the customer wanted. Some customers provided lists, but I didn't see anyone, other than employees, enter the store. There is a chip and pin reader at the door, so all sales are card only.


----------



## Rorschach

That fits in more with my own opinion and that of other not in the main stream media. As I have said before though, we will never really know what the right to do is because you can only take one path and no amount of modelling or prediction will ever give you the real outcome. 

Lets just hope for the best.


----------



## Lons

> Aye, but protect us from plague, protect us from penury, or, as far as is humanly possible, protect us from the worse ravages of both?


It's great shame however that they and no one else can protect us from ourselves or at least from the selfish, ignorant pr*ts that many humans once again have proved themselves to be.


> The only governments that have actually got a handle on this thing are the Chinese and the South Koreans and a couple of others who have taken reasonably prompt and fully enforced measures to control and contain it.


Different societies where absolute power largely enabled that action. Had that been done here a few weeks ago I strongly suspect we would have seen riots on the streets with resulting consequences. The Germans probably learned much more than we did.


> Not sure that I believe current statistics from the Chinese government. However if they are correct it will be enlightening to see if their return to normality triggers another wave of infection.


Hear, hear !
I you looked at daily statistics China regularly provided no information on new cases and at the very beginning they hid the evidence and information from the rest of the world. It has been strongly argued that the Chinese could have in fact contained the infection at source but instead they chickened out of cancelling the Chinese New Year which drew millions into Wuhan and spread the virus far and wide. 
There is a lot of suspicion over the information coming out of China, it's not that it's out of character is it.

Just as an aside to this, anyone trying to make political gain during a national and global crisis should be hung drawn and quartered imo. The time for criticism and analysis along with appropriate congratulations and castigation should be when the battle is over.


----------



## Rorschach

sploo":6824nmqa said:


> Rorschach":6824nmqa said:
> 
> 
> 
> Lets just hope for the best.
> 
> 
> 
> No, I'd prefer to take the advice of people with a background in dealing with viruses and pandemics; rather than hoping for the best.
Click to expand...


The scientists have one goal though, save lives at all costs, they think about nothing else. That isn't a realistic path forward though.


----------



## Lons

sploo":3cx8f1fi said:


> I'd prefer to take the advice of people with a background in dealing with viruses and pandemics; rather than hoping for the best.



Me too =D> =D>


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":3rs0p7ep said:


> .........The scientists have one goal though, save lives at all costs, they think about nothing else. That isn't a realistic path forward though.



I'm not sure this is their goal. It certainly isn't the stated aim of the path we are following. How do you know this is the scientists' position?


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":hvfb5xra said:


> sploo":hvfb5xra said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":hvfb5xra said:
> 
> 
> 
> Lets just hope for the best.
> 
> 
> 
> No, I'd prefer to take the advice of people with a background in dealing with viruses and pandemics; rather than hoping for the best.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> The scientists have one goal though, save lives at all costs, they think about nothing else. That isn't a realistic path forward though.
Click to expand...

How do you know that?

My point is that you're assuming that those with an understanding of the issues are focused only on one thing and ignoring all other factors. I could just as well say that the politicians care only about damage to the economy and think of nothing else. I don't believe that's true for a minute, so why would you think "the scientists" are equally as blinkered?


----------



## Cheshirechappie

As I see it, the job of the scientists and medics is to advise government, who will also be seeking advice from economists in the Treasury and elsewhere, listening to Parliament and public opinion, observing actions and effects internationally, and then reaching a decision as to the best course of action.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":3qvg0c51 said:


> sploo":3qvg0c51 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":3qvg0c51 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Lets just hope for the best.
> 
> 
> 
> No, I'd prefer to take the advice of people with a background in dealing with viruses and pandemics; rather than hoping for the best.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> The scientists have one goal though, save lives at all costs, they think about nothing else. That isn't a realistic path forward though.
Click to expand...


You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.


----------



## nev

It is very difficult to discuss this without mentioning what The Government is doing about it.

It is very difficult to filter out political point scoring without upsetting somebody.

This thread is going the same way as the BBC/ Brexit thread.
I know I cant win with the moderating, some will agree and some will not.
With the simple fact that this is (primarily)*a Woodworking forum *as my guide I will be deleting anything I deem political, including I'm afraid, anything that gets caught up in it.
Arguing about who did or did not do what at what time is both pointless just a breeding ground for irate rants and name calling.

Apologies to those that unnecessarily get caught up in net.


----------



## Selwyn

Why have some of my posts been deleted?

I wrote that through it all the panic buying is worse as a media story than a real inability of people to get food and it was deleted. That is not fair to delete it. The mods are only encouraging group think and reaffirming one line of view by doing this. That guys mate was wrong to stockpile however don't get sucked into the idea that people could not buy food, because they could. They just didn't get everything they wanted at a certain time from certain shops.

Hysteria and collective thought is making a bad situation even worse


----------



## Selwyn

..


----------



## Nigel Burden

My wife has just been to the bank and building society, both closed, and only open for certain days with limited hours. This will cause increased customer numbers during those periods making social distancing more difficult. As my wife said, they send out enough emails about services that they offer, why not send out emails detailing opening hours.

Nigel.


----------



## sploo

Cheshirechappie":3tji1wh8 said:


> As I see it, the job of the scientists and medics is to advise government, who will also be seeking advice from economists in the Treasury and elsewhere, listening to Parliament and public opinion, observing actions and effects internationally, and then reaching a decision as to the best course of action.





RogerS":3tji1wh8 said:


> You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.


Roger's reply above wasn't to CC, but I thought both were interesting in context. The thing is: I agree.

Nothing is black and white. We can't pump insane amounts of money into trying to save every last person - it just doesn't make sense.

I do agree with CC's assessment of how it should be happening, but obviously that requires good leaders (leaders who, whilst not having to be experts in every area, have the ability to process information and advice and make appropriate decisions). Politicians, by nature, have to factor in public image and impact on their ability to get re-elected; which can negatively colour their judgement. Fact of life - that's not a "for" or "against" any particular party comment.


----------



## Rorschach

RogerS":3lxscgxz said:


> You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.



Do you not think that is reality?
Human life most definitely has a monetary value. 
But actually that wasn't my point, my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.


----------



## thetyreman

I regret starting this thread now to be honest, it has been dumbed down from it's original title about how masks are inadequate, I tried changing the title and it kept changing back on it's own magically, doctors are now concerned about the masks they've been supplied with.


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":griaj746 said:


> ........ my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.



Which again misses the point. We_ aren't_ saving the lives of older people......we are reducing the immediate pressure on the NHS by spreading the impact of the disease over a longer period. This enables the NHS to better look after the young as well as the old. Roughly the same number of people will still die from Coronavirus.


----------



## sploo

thetyreman":cfaocuj8 said:


> I regret starting this thread now to be honest, it has been dumbed down from it's original title about how masks are inadequate, I tried changing the title and it kept changing back on it's own magically, doctors are now concerned about the masks they've been supplied with.


Don't worry: as I noted in an earlier post - the doctors (at my wife's hospital at least) aren't failing their mask fitting checks now. The hospital has fixed that problem by ceasing the mask fitting checks...


----------



## sploo

MikeG.":afkqiciq said:


> Rorschach":afkqiciq said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........ my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which again misses the point. We_ aren't_ saving the lives of older people......we are reducing the immediate pressure on the NHS by spreading the impact of the disease over a longer period. This enables the NHS to better look after the young as well as the old. Roughly the same number of people will still die from Coronavirus.
Click to expand...

Though a side effect of slowing down transmission is that a vaccine may become available (thus lowering deaths). Alternatively, it also gives time for research on better treatment - there are some (seemingly - to the non-virologist such as myself) unrelated drugs that are showing promise in aiding symptoms. Way out of my knowledge area, but a potential positive in slowing infections down.


----------



## FatmanG

This thread has been quite an eye opener for me not really in relation to Bens topic either. The opinions on things as important as violence being used for discipline to the stereotyping of a person from which supermarket they shop at. Some really intelligent and articulate people with some let's say 'strong' opinions.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Nigel Burden":1p07mirr said:


> My wife has just been to the bank and building society, both closed, and only open for certain days with limited hours. This will cause increased customer numbers during those periods making social distancing more difficult. As my wife said, they send out enough emails about services that they offer, why not send out emails detailing opening hours.
> 
> Nigel.



Thanks for the notification, Nigel. I've just checked my bank's website; limited opening hours for most branches on Monday to Friday, closed weekends, other branches temporarily closed.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":3rzja0rz said:


> RogerS":3rzja0rz said:
> 
> 
> 
> You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you not think that is reality?
> Human life most definitely has a monetary value.
> But actually that wasn't my point, my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
Click to expand...


That has to be one of the most offensive posts I've seen on this forum.


----------



## sploo

RogerS":2egx7awx said:


> Rorschach":2egx7awx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":2egx7awx said:
> 
> 
> 
> You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you not think that is reality?
> Human life most definitely has a monetary value.
> But actually that wasn't my point, my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That has to be one of the most offensive posts I've seen on this forum.
Click to expand...

It's not a nice thing to read, but I couldn't argue against it from a factual point of view.

Indeed, the advice for doctors has been to prioritise treatment for those most likely to be feasible to save (given that there won't be enough intensive care kit for all). I wouldn't want to be the one faced with making that judgement call.


----------



## Trevanion

I think there's a very real monetary value on human life, how much taxes you'll pay out through your life time.


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Putting a value on a human life is uncomfortable, but normal practice for even the UK government.

I understand that for safety related expenditure the "value of prevented fatality" is around £1.8m. I assume this gets applied in considering and prioritising (say) road and rail safety improvements.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":2exp58d2 said:


> Rorschach":2exp58d2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........ my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which again misses the point. We_ aren't_ saving the lives of older people......we are reducing the immediate pressure on the NHS by spreading the impact of the disease over a longer period. This enables the NHS to better look after the young as well as the old. Roughly the same number of people will still die from Coronavirus.
Click to expand...

There's a lot to that. Effectively we're doomed to wait until the real game changer, an inoculation or an effective drug is produced.

Incidentally, I'm half hoping that I'm one of those lucky people who only gets a mild version of it. Yesterday I got a cough out of nowhere and even felt wobbly for an hour or two. The coughing started at about 9 am and the wobbliness was around lunchtime but all symptoms were gone by about 11 pm. It seems too good to be true but I hope that was it. I'm still going to stick with all the currently recommended precautions though.


----------



## MusicMan

sploo":23ax3kin said:


> MikeG.":23ax3kin said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":23ax3kin said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........ my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Which again misses the point. We_ aren't_ saving the lives of older people......we are reducing the immediate pressure on the NHS by spreading the impact of the disease over a longer period. This enables the NHS to better look after the young as well as the old. Roughly the same number of people will still die from Coronavirus.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Though a side effect of slowing down transmission is that a vaccine may become available (thus lowering deaths). Alternatively, it also gives time for research on better treatment - there are some (seemingly - to the non-virologist such as myself) unrelated drugs that are showing promise in aiding symptoms. Way out of my knowledge area, but a potential positive in slowing infections down.
Click to expand...


Yes to both MikeG and Sploo. The seemingly unrelated drugs were in fact selected by a highly scientific process: structural molecular biology. Once the molecular structure of the virus was determined by Chinese scientists, which was quite quickly done and circulated internationally, virtually all known and approved drugs were structurally checked against it to see if they might fit (literally - the right molecular shape to lock on to part of the virus, and the right chemistry to inhibit its operation). One of my colleagues (an Oxford professor) was involved in this search. She told me that of these hundreds of thousands of drugs, three hits were found including an antimalarial drug (probably one of the ones there is so much noise about currently, but I don't know the details). Research on these started immediately in all countries with supplies and capabilities (and they were immediately banned from export) for clinical trials. Though they are already approved for human use, they still need to be tested in the coronavirus case to see if they work in fact, and at doses that are not otherwise harmful. This is certainly the best hope before a vaccine is developed by one or more of the 20 -ish teams working on this world wide. Who are cooperating well.

So the lockdown both spreads the load on the NHS and offers a hope that recovery rates will improve as these drugs come on line, assuming they indeed have a positive effect.

MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?


----------



## Andy Kev.

Terry - Somerset":13x7wd54 said:


> Putting a value on a human life is uncomfortable, but normal practice for even the UK government.
> 
> I understand that for safety related expenditure the "value of prevented fatality" is around £1.8m. I assume this gets applied in considering and prioritising (say) road and rail safety improvements.


Very true. If you aspire to manage health nationally and with finite resources (inevitably the case) you will always be faced with highly discriminatory decisions about who is awarded a higher risk of dying and who will get the full benefit of treatment.


----------



## RogerS

sploo":g2ig2h59 said:


> RogerS":g2ig2h59 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":g2ig2h59 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Do you not think that is reality?
> Human life most definitely has a monetary value.
> But actually that wasn't my point, my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That has to be one of the most offensive posts I've seen on this forum.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> It's not a nice thing to read, but I couldn't argue against it from a factual point of view.
> 
> Indeed, the advice for doctors has been to prioritise treatment for those most likely to be feasible to save (given that there won't be enough intensive care kit for all). I wouldn't want to be the one faced with making that judgement call.
Click to expand...


He's not talking about prioritising Covid-19 care as far as I can see. It reads more like a generic statement of principle.


----------



## sploo

MusicMan":mfl5hnwp said:


> Yes to both MikeG and Sploo. The seemingly unrelated drugs were in fact selected by a highly scientific process: structural molecular biology. Once the molecular structure of the virus was determined by Chinese scientists, which was quite quickly done and circulated internationally, virtually all known and approved drugs were structurally checked against it to see if they might fit (literally - the right molecular shape to lock on to part of the virus, and the right chemistry to inhibit its operation).


In my ignorance of the science I'd assumed there was some technical or biological reason why those drugs were chosen - many thanks for the explanation.



MusicMan":mfl5hnwp said:


> One of my colleagues (an Oxford professor) was involved in this search. She told me that of these hundreds of thousands of drugs, three hits were found including an antimalarial drug (probably one of the ones there is so much noise about currently, but I don't know the details). Research on these started immediately in all countries with supplies and capabilities (and they were immediately banned from export) for clinical trials. Though they are already approved for human use, they still need to be tested in the coronavirus case to see if they work in fact, and at doses that are not otherwise harmful. This is certainly the best hope before a vaccine is developed by one or more of the 20 -ish teams working on this world wide. Who are cooperating well.


Without wanting to give away personal information I don't have the right to expose; I understand Oxford has a strong virology research centre? It's not my wife's medical field, but she's formerly of those woods.


----------



## Jake

RogerS":2gz19bm3 said:


> Rorschach":2gz19bm3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":2gz19bm3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> You seem to be advocating an equation where a human life has a monetary value and that if the monetary value is too high than that human life is allowed to take their (probably limited) chances.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you not think that is reality?
> Human life most definitely has a monetary value.
> But actually that wasn't my point, my point was that by saving the lives of older people now we could inadvertently be killing more younger people in the near future.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That has to be one of the most offensive posts I've seen on this forum.
Click to expand...


The only way I can understand this statement from is that it must be based on your offense at the suggestion that the ones you want to mow down with an Uzi have any monetary value.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

I was going to write something about how economic downturns also cause higher mortality rates, and therefore by crippling the economy to save some people, other people would then be sentenced to death in their place. However, according to this: (https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/do ... te-en.html ) during economic downturns there is a decrease in deaths overall, despite a rise in suicides and murders, because of the reduction in vehicle accident deaths. 

I can't work out which proposition is more depressing.

Note it also doesn't cover the long-term affects of poverty on health, looking purely at the two years after a recession.

So in conclusion, the best way for the government to keep us safe is to lock us all up, and throw away the key. What could possibly go wrong?


----------



## MikeG.

MusicMan":3w4rgl34 said:


> .......MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?



I'm 100%, albeit easily fatigued, thanks. My wife is a day or two behind me, but much improved. She is complaining bitterly and often about having lost her sense of smell (welcome to my world). We both have a strange metallic taste in our mouths. We'd take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays as a substitute for what we've just been through.


----------



## Rorschach

RogerS":2iyxc060 said:


> He's not talking about prioritising Covid-19 care as far as I can see. It reads more like a generic statement of principle.



It's both, monetary value on human life always applies and always has. It's not nice, but it's true.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

> The value of life is an economic value used to quantify the benefit of avoiding a fatality.[1] It is also referred to as the cost of life, value of preventing a fatality (VPF) and implied cost of averting a fatality (ICAF). In social and political sciences, it is the marginal cost of death prevention in a certain class of circumstances. In many studies the value also includes the quality of life, the expected life time remaining, as well as the earning potential of a given person especially for an after the fact payment in a wrongful death claim lawsuit.
> 
> As such, it is a statistical term, the cost of reducing the average number of deaths by one. It is an important issue in a wide range of disciplines including economics, health care, adoption, political economy, insurance, worker safety, environmental impact assessment, and globalization.[2]
> ...



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Value_of_life


----------



## D_W

Trainee neophyte":2v0g4dwb said:


> I was going to write something about how economic downturns also cause higher mortality rates, and therefore by crippling the economy to save some people, other people would then be sentenced to death in their place. However, according to this: (https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/do ... te-en.html ) during economic downturns there is a decrease in deaths overall, despite a rise in suicides and murders, because of the reduction in vehicle accident deaths.
> 
> I can't work out which proposition is more depressing.
> 
> Note it also doesn't cover the long-term affects of poverty on health, looking purely at the two years after a recession.
> 
> So in conclusion, the best way for the government to keep us safe is to lock us all up, and throw away the key. What could possibly go wrong?



Economic decline does generally yield lower mortality in the short term. I don't know why that is, but it has always been the case as far as I can recall. 

I once posed that question to someone who worked at a large casket company figuring that lower economic means would yield higher mortality and the the person in question quickly answered that mortality drops in economic decline (that obviously affects their business - choice changes, too - crematory businesses here in the states do better in an economic downturn, despite the reduced number of overall deaths). 

That's something maybe nobody ever wanted to know!!


----------



## D_W

Terry - Somerset":1toxwm6i said:


> Putting a value on a human life is uncomfortable, but normal practice for even the UK government.
> 
> I understand that for safety related expenditure the "value of prevented fatality" is around £1.8m. I assume this gets applied in considering and prioritising (say) road and rail safety improvements.



There is an even more simple version of this occurring in the states where high viral load critical patients (who can be resuscitated) are being viewed as a potential threat to health care workers. The issue goes back to saving others instead of the person in question. 

More money is spent on end of life here in the states because it's compensated, but the threat not of revenue, but actual ability to save other lives by keeping doctors (nurses, etc) healthy and beds used for people with a better chance of surviving is popping up.

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/0 ... -patients/

End of life care (separate from the covid issue) is superb, but it has become extremely expensive and seemingly designed transfer inheritances away from descendants. That might sound a bit absolutist, but a neighbor here did nothing to protect assets and had a long-term memory care issue (can cost $150K a year for specialized care, sometimes more) and blew through $1M of lifetime savings, relatives sold the house of the individual in case and blew through most of that. I guess they felt it was worth it, or maybe they didn't consider it at all. The difficult decision in that case would be placed on relatives.


----------



## MusicMan

MikeG.":fbseahzv said:


> MusicMan":fbseahzv said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm 100%, albeit easily fatigued, thanks. My wife is a day or two behind me, but much improved. She is complaining bitterly and often about having lost her sense of smell (welcome to my world). We both have a strange metallic taste in our mouths. We'd take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays as a substitute for what we've just been through.
Click to expand...



That's very good news. Thanks for letting us know.

Keith


----------



## Woody2Shoes

MikeG.":3c81sv31 said:


> MusicMan":3c81sv31 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm 100%, albeit easily fatigued, thanks. My wife is a day or two behind me, but much improved. She is complaining bitterly and often about having lost her sense of smell (welcome to my world). We both have a strange metallic taste in our mouths. We'd take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays as a substitute for what we've just been through.
Click to expand...


Great news, until she regains her sense of smell you'll just have to make sure she doesn't do anything which could accidentally set the house on fire: e.g. welding, er, cooking, er ummm  ......


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Terry - Somerset":tqsiw4rd said:


> Putting a value on a human life is uncomfortable, but normal practice for even the UK government.
> 
> I understand that for safety related expenditure the "value of prevented fatality" is around £1.8m. I assume this gets applied in considering and prioritising (say) road and rail safety improvements.



One of the things that's different in this situation is that the majority of the cost/value is an opportunity cost. Also, there are still many more unknowns than usual.


----------



## MusicMan

MusicMan":33eenhq7 said:


> One of my colleagues (an Oxford professor) was involved in this search. She told me that of these hundreds of thousands of drugs, three hits were found including an antimalarial drug (probably one of the ones there is so much noise about currently, but I don't know the details). Research on these started immediately in all countries with supplies and capabilities (and they were immediately banned from export) for clinical trials. Though they are already approved for human use, they still need to be tested in the coronavirus case to see if they work in fact, and at doses that are not otherwise harmful. This is certainly the best hope before a vaccine is developed by one or more of the 20 -ish teams working on this world wide. Who are cooperating well.


Without wanting to give away personal information I don't have the right to expose; I understand Oxford has a strong virology research centre? It's not my wife's medical field, but she's formerly of those woods.[/quote]

Yes, I'd better not mention names but the various medical departments are very strong on virology and how cells and proteins recognise other proteins (eg viruses and cancers). They are also collaborating interdepartmentally with Engineering Science, who already have an important centre in China, and are jointly developing the rapid test for whether you have had coronavirus. This is public information: http://www.ibme.ox.ac.uk/news-events/ne ... r-covid-19. One of the coronavirus vaccine developments is at the Weatherall Institute for Molecular Medicine at Oxford. See also http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-03-24-oxf ... nt-funding. There are also leading epidemiologists there, who are part of the government advice team. There are of course many other groups in the world pursuing similar goals, and I am told that they are all collaborating freely and openly, whatever the politicians say or do.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

D_W":39xg1ydj said:


> [
> 
> Economic decline does generally yield lower mortality in the short term. I don't know why that is, but it has always been the case as far as I can recall.



It's a really prosaic reason: reduced economic activity means fewer people driving, which means fewer people killing themselves/each other in collisions.


----------



## D_W

COVID and regulatory stuff has given me more work, and i shouldn't even look this up (professionally, understanding mortality is part of my job, but more in application and less in development of rates) - I do a lot of financial projections of populations, but in the long term (short term noise isn't on my radar). 

I figured I'd look this up, anyway, and this is an article that addresses it some. 
https://www.aeaweb.org/research/why-doe ... e-increase

The article suggests 17% of the increase is due to motor vehicle stuff. No one cause -little bits discussed, but they don't explain the total. Troublesome comparison because there are some counter trends (income and mortality have a well-known relationship - people with higher income generally live longer, but that is, again, a long-term trend). 

Geography, education, etc, all go along with income - I don't know which is causal as I use the results of studies and don't participate in putting them together. 

If I were going to try to solve this, I'd start with the large causes of death (heart disease, cancer, diabetes - which is comorbid with lots of things) and see if any of them yielded fruit as the combination of heart disease and cancer has an enormous influence (cancer's impact on life expectancy is pretty constant - a 2% improvement in that respect or so each year). Heart disease declined sharply for decades but has leveled off (most of the change in heart disease is said to be linked to the decline in smoking rates) some. Last year was the first I can recall where aggregate population experience was more favorable than expected by any significant amount. 

In the states, we had a huge run up in life expectancy from about 2003-2007 or 8 (not looking it up) then a fairly flat period for quite some time with a little bit of noise (going from memory). Highly publicized stories about decreasing life expectancy have been due to mortality at younger ages as I can recall with continued improvement at later ages - in general).


----------



## sploo

Trainee neophyte":10tm41jb said:


> D_W":10tm41jb said:
> 
> 
> 
> [
> 
> Economic decline does generally yield lower mortality in the short term. I don't know why that is, but it has always been the case as far as I can recall.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It's a really prosaic reason: reduced economic activity means fewer people driving, which means fewer people killing themselves/each other in collisions.
Click to expand...

Look at it in a positive way: when driving you may get deselected from the population by a self-important boy racer in a Golf GTI, squashed by a bored lorry driver, or taken out by a nervous middle-aged lady in a Nissan Micra.

If you decide to deselect yourself from the population it's your own decision.

Therefore, reduced economic activity is a good thing, as it puts your destiny in your own hands.

I'll get my coat.


----------



## D_W

Based on that article as you're older, too, it appears in volume, the excess deaths occur in older folks. The comparison was a reduction in unemployment - presume that continued employment may not be great for folks, but that would need to be parsed a lot of different ways to find out why. People like single answers, and there may not be many. 

The chart can also be misleading as it's nominal, but "old people" tend to have higher mortality rates, so no way to be sure that the rate of "unimprovement" is worse at later ages, even though the bulk of the numbers are there.


----------



## stuartpaul

Well, - it’s either the mother of all colds or the Missus and I both have it. I’ve had virtually no coughing but she’s had one with lots of ‘product’ as she calls it.

For me it came on really quickly lunchtime today. Not long after she was notified she’d been nursing a patient who’s tested positive (I’m not necessarily connecting those two events). Lots of aches and chills and feeling completely shiite.

Senior staff at the hospital (small community) have been noticeably silent.

Still, - at least the morning cleaning gutters and facias was productive!


----------



## MikeG.

If you've got a productive cough, then you may well not have Covid 19. It's the driest of dry coughs. It's the least productive cough you'll ever have. Fingers crossed you've got one of the other lurgies still doing the rounds.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":b399yyx2 said:


> If you've got a productive cough, then you may well not have Covid 19. It's the driest of dry coughs. It's the least productive cough you'll ever have. Fingers crossed you've got one of the other lurgies still doing the rounds.



I'm not so sure, Mike. There was a GP on the radio talking about her experience with Covid-19 and one of the things that stuck in my mind was her comment about how much she was coughing up and explained that it was the dead lung cells post-viral destruction.


----------



## D_W

sounds like a viral bronchitis cough (which does nothing other than keep you from sleeping for weeks and make sure a headache never goes away). Scans of bronchitis in the lungs look far different, though (constriction in the tubes rather than covering of the lungs with interference). 

I've had bronchitis probably 75 times. I'd rather have it again than coronavirus. 

Before Covid19, i constantly had to say (in public) that my spastic dry cough wasn't contagious ("it's just astma-related bronchitis, no worries"). It'll never be believed again now.


----------



## FatmanG

MikeG.":2b4erk7d said:


> MusicMan":2b4erk7d said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......MikeG, I hope your recovery and that of your wife is still proceeding well?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm 100%, albeit easily fatigued, thanks. My wife is a day or two behind me, but much improved. She is complaining bitterly and often about having lost her sense of smell (welcome to my world). We both *have a strange metallic taste in our mouths*. We'd take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays as a substitute for what we've just been through.
Click to expand...

My dad used to say that when he was having chemo


----------



## D_W

So do people exposed to radiation. I stuck a Bobby pin in a light socket when I was a young boy and had a metallic taste for a while. And burned fingers.

My p-doc back then was an old fellow named Harrison harbach. He had been dwight Eisenhower's personal physician. He said something to my father like "if it didn't kill him, he'll be tired for a while. Take him home and wait for him to not be tired".


----------



## Racers

I have it, I was feeling cold all yesterday and woke in the night with a tight feeling in my chest, sore throat, and feeling rough. I don’t have it bad luckily. 

Pete


----------



## MikeG.

Sorry to hear you're not well, Pete. It is too early to say how badly you've got it, I'm afraid. It wasn't until about day 4 for me that I felt really bad, and it's not until about day 7 to 10 that you know whether or not you are going to get the pneumonia ....the thing you really don't want. The first couple of days I just felt off colour.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I'm really sorry to hear that, Pete.


----------



## lurker

Sorry to hear that Pete.
Guess you got it via all those students you mingle with.
Register on the website I posted a few pages back so the authorities can track it's spread.

Edit: here is but one reason why.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52053565

Obviously my advice (plea) is not just aimed at you Pete.


----------



## Racers

Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days. 

I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it. 

Pete


----------



## RogerS

Racers":1j81n51r said:


> Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.
> 
> I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.
> 
> Pete



Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?


----------



## lurker

RogerS":1s2vegjd said:


> Racers":1s2vegjd said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.
> 
> I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.
> 
> Pete
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?
Click to expand...


Water under the bridge.
Pete works at a university.
Of all the places I have worked in, university was noticeable by their lack of common sense.
I suspect Pete had no say in the matter.


----------



## RogerS

lurker":2qnpvhb5 said:


> RogerS":2qnpvhb5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Racers":2qnpvhb5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks chaps, I am not looking forward to the next few days.
> 
> I spent all last week handing out laptops to staff so in a cramped basement surrounded by people no surprise I have it.
> 
> Pete
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to hear you have it, Pete. But silly question, I know....couldn't there have been some social-distancing put into effect..one-in...one-out ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Water under the bridge.
> Pete works at a university.
> Of all the places I have worked in, university was noticeable by their lack of common sense.
> I suspect Pete had no say in the matter.
Click to expand...


Maybe water under the bridge but if it gives a wake-up call to someone else not be complacent then surely a good idea ?


----------



## Racers

I would have seen the same number of people, we where told on Monday only 3 people in the office at once but everyone had been by then. 
They moved us out of a large office with a counter we could hand things over to a basement next to the tram tracks. 

Pete


----------



## Steve Maskery

[youtube]xK_KkfJTaRo[/youtube]


----------



## FatmanG

Police have had to step in for the 2nd day running at the Asda superstore in leeds10 to break up several grown men physically fighting one another over stock on the shelves. As if the police haven't enough to do. My daughter told me they were queuing up and around the car park at the Aldi all calm practicing social distancing 2m apart it negates somewhat the comment earlier in the thread about what kind of person shops where. 
I fear for anyone who has to go out.
Keep calm to Keep safe


----------



## Nelsun

They must have some reach to land blows on someone 2 metres away... tw*ts.

Sorry to hear you've got it Pete. Take it easy and no soldiering on.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Just been announced that Bo jo is in isolation with mild symptoms.

Nigel.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Nigel Burden":35bzohzn said:


> Just been announced that Bo jo is in isolation with mild symptoms.



Hancock too.

.


----------



## MikeG.

.....and Matt Hancock too.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

A post in today's Times - (the truth of which I do not know, so don't shoot the messenger)

There was actually some goodish news a few days ago. As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in the UK as it was less infectious and less dangerous than previously thought.
As far as I know, none of the mainstream media chose to report this as it didn't fit into their clickbait "we're all going to die from Government incompetence" narrative.


----------



## craigs

Phil Pascoe":2t0fu8uy said:


> A post in today's Times - (the truth of which I do not know, so don't shoot the messenger)
> 
> There was actually some goodish news a few days ago. As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in the UK as it was less infectious and less dangerous than previously thought.
> As far as I know, none of the mainstream media chose to report this as it didn't fit into their clickbait "we're all going to die from Government incompetence" narrative.



I think at this point im more likely to die from alcohol abuse (hammer)


----------



## Phil Pascoe

You're supposed to use the IPA on your hands, not drink it.


----------



## Glynne

Self isolate and self intoxicate.


----------



## craigs

Phil Pascoe":2j0z7o4u said:


> You're supposed to use the IPA on your hands, not drink it.



India Pale Ale ? i'm not sure i want to wash my hands with it, it would be a waste


----------



## Trevanion

I'm not sure whether someone at the sun is having a laugh or it's a genuine mistake

"_Michael Gove statement after PM Boris Johnson testes positive for coronavirus_"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9FQsga02TA


----------



## Jake

Phil Pascoe":2i3t0k01 said:


> A post in today's Times - (the truth of which I do not know, so don't shoot the messenger)
> 
> There was actually some goodish news a few days ago. As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID) in the UK as it was less infectious and less dangerous than previously thought.
> As far as I know, none of the mainstream media chose to report this as it didn't fit into their clickbait "we're all going to die from Government incompetence" narrative.



This seemed like a bit of spin from the govt to me, not sure it is necessarily good news. I think it is more that there are only 4 hospitals in the UK which are supposed to treat respiratory HCIDs and all patients are supposed to be transferred to those, so whatever the seriousness (SARS is still classified as an HCID as are less serious flus than this) it just isn't going to work that way because semi-ironically it is just too serious.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... eases-hcid

It also sounds from that page as if it allows changes to be made to PPE requirements more easily.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

A peculiar article about strange goings on in France (theft of national supply of chloroquine), and about chloroquine and the efficacy as a cure. https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-franc ... irus-cure/

Does anyone have any spare chloroquine? Allegedly a 7 day course will sort you out, but perhaps someone medical might know better. There ought to be something in it, as UK has banned export of chloroquine - https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -covid-19/


----------



## Blackswanwood

Trainee neophyte":3dyo0yag said:


> A peculiar article about strange goings on in France (theft of national supply of chloroquine), and about chloroquine and the efficacy as a cure. https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-franc ... irus-cure/
> 
> Does anyone have any spare chloroquine? Allegedly a 7 day course will sort you out, but perhaps someone medical might know better. There ought to be something in it, as UK has banned export of chloroquine - https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -covid-19/



I haven’t looked at the links but am pretty sure this is an anti-malarial drug and Trump was claiming it was the answer a few weeks ago. As usual with anything claimed by Trump it’s not the case.


----------



## MikeG.

A seven day course will sort it out, hey? Interesting. How long does corona virus normally last?...................Wait a minute.................Hmmm, let me see........No, no, it's coming to me.....................oh yes, that's it. Seven days! Well now, isn't that a coincidence.

This is untested, TN. You are peddling pseudoscience. When it's been used in double blind trials and the results analysed, come back to us.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Blackswanwood":6zi6w7kw said:


> Trainee neophyte":6zi6w7kw said:
> 
> 
> 
> A peculiar article about strange goings on in France (theft of national supply of chloroquine), and about chloroquine and the efficacy as a cure. https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-franc ... irus-cure/
> 
> Does anyone have any spare chloroquine? Allegedly a 7 day course will sort you out, but perhaps someone medical might know better. There ought to be something in it, as UK has banned export of chloroquine - https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -covid-19/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I haven’t looked at the links but am pretty sure this is an anti-malarial drug and Trump was claiming it was the answer a few weeks ago. As usual with anything claimed by Trump it’s not the case.
Click to expand...

What Trump says is as such unimportant. What the scientists say is important. If a scientist has briefed Trump and he parrots it, what he is saying is probably important.

Two days ago I saw an interview with a scientist who claimed that certain molecular structures on the virus were identified very quickly by the Chinese and passed to scientists worldwide. They then did computer modelling of all known drugs to see which would be a literal physical fit on the structures as making the fit neutralises the viruses. Three candidates emerged. One of them is an anti-malarial drug (which may well be what Trump was on about). All three are undergoing trials, as you may imagine.

Now ask yourself what is the probability of Trump, in his capacity as a scientifically uneducated layman, plucking the name of a drug out of the air and saying that it may be a cure. Do you think it might be more probable that he was given this information by one of his scientific advisors?

Also ask yourself what are the odds of your making the fact that Trump is saying something the key indicator of its likely truth? In political matters you may well have a point, given his track record. In specific scientific matters, you may well be plumbing Trumpian depths of logic.


----------



## craigs

Andy Kev.":2efyr6a7 said:


> Blackswanwood":2efyr6a7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trainee neophyte":2efyr6a7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> A peculiar article about strange goings on in France (theft of national supply of chloroquine), and about chloroquine and the efficacy as a cure. https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-franc ... irus-cure/
> 
> Does anyone have any spare chloroquine? Allegedly a 7 day course will sort you out, but perhaps someone medical might know better. There ought to be something in it, as UK has banned export of chloroquine - https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -covid-19/
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I haven’t looked at the links but am pretty sure this is an anti-malarial drug and Trump was claiming it was the answer a few weeks ago. As usual with anything claimed by Trump it’s not the case.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> What Trump says is as such unimportant. What the scientists say is important. If a scientist has briefed Trump and he parrots it, what he is saying is probably important.
> 
> Two days ago I saw an interview with a scientist who claimed that certain molecular structures on the virus were identified very quickly by the Chinese and passed to scientists worldwide. They then did computer modelling of all known drugs to see which would be a literal physical fit on the structures as making the fit neutralises the viruses. Three candidates emerged. One of them is an anti-malarial drug (which may well be what Trump was on about). All three are undergoing trials, as you may imagine.
> 
> Now ask yourself what is the probability of Trump, in his capacity as a scientifically uneducated layman, plucking the name of a drug out of the air and saying that it may be a cure. Do you think it might be more probable that he was given this information by one of his scientific advisors?
> 
> Also ask yourself what are the odds of your making the fact that Trump is saying something the key indicator of its likely truth? In political matters you may well have a point, given his track record. In specific scientific matters, you may well be plumbing Trumpian depths of logic.
Click to expand...


^^^ what he said

Trump is a glory seeker, if he can be seen to resolve this with as little damage as possible then he gets a lot of ego massaging. I doubt he would be peddling fantasy which will ruin that outcome, he like most political leaders are just taking advice from "the science experts" and giving it out.

oh and i put it in quotes because, just because you have a job doesn't mean you are good at it.


----------



## shed9

MikeG.":31hjklex said:


> A seven day course will sort it out, hey? Interesting. How long does corona virus normally last?...................Wait a minute.................Hmmm, let me see........No, no, it's coming to me.....................oh yes, that's it. Seven days! Well now, isn't that a coincidence.
> 
> This is untested, TN. You are peddling pseudoscience. When it's been used in double blind trials and the results analysed, come back to us.


 :roll: 
As a 'wise' man once said;


MikeG.":31hjklex said:


> There's two ways of discussing/ arguing: you can stick to the facts, or you can get personal. As soon as you start talking about the other person, and about your superior abilities/ knowledge/ whatever compared to that person, then you've lost the argument, and you are susceptible to the accusation that you are trolling.


The connection to chloroquine concerned with a potential tool against Covid-19 is based on research going back to earlier this year. The testing also included SARS as well as Covid-19. This research has occurred in several well respected institutes across the globe as a possible tool to help people with severe stages of the virus. This has not pointed to a cure but merely something that warrants further investigation to build that arsenal against potentials. They have been cautious in releasing data and identified the risks comparative to effects such as placebo's, etc.

I appreciate that we should be be cautious in what we put up here, but this is a discussion on a topical disruptive virus. If the discussion goes in the direction of how the world is responding to that, discuss it, conclude and move on. Don't counter vague comments with equally vague retorts assuming you have "superior abilities/ knowledge/ whatever" else "you've lost the argument" and you are "susceptible to the accusation that you are trolling".


----------



## Trainee neophyte

I don't have any chloroquine, and I don't intend to take any, because it is a really nasty poison, which is why it works on the malaria parasite. It may or may not be useful for this virus - I have no knowledge. However, Morocco has bought the entire stock available: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020- ... 4IZL8.html

More interesting (from the original article I linked to) is that someone seems to nicked the entire French government stock (and possibly sold it to the Moroccan government?) I don't care particularly about its proven efficacy or otherwise - much more fun is the weird goings on and corruption that may or may not be happening across the Channel. Good to see modern, western societies are just as corrupt as your average sub-Saharan African dictatorship, when push comes to shove; they just do it differently.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Trainee neophyte":3iboznss said:


> I don't have any chloroquine, and I don't intend to take any, because it is a really nasty poison, which is why it works on the malaria parasite. It may or may not be useful for this virus - I have no knowledge. However, Morocco has bought the entire stock available: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020- ... 4IZL8.html
> 
> More interesting (from the original article I linked to) is that someone seems to nicked the entire French government stock (and possibly sold it to the Moroccan government?) I don't care particularly about its proven efficacy or otherwise - much more fun is the weird goings on and corruption that may or may not be happening across the Channel. Good to see modern, western societies are just as corrupt as your average sub-Saharan African dictatorship, when push comes to shove; they just do it differently.


Why not just read a more reliable source? It's all here: https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... s-patients and https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chlo ... -treatment

Yes, stupid populist demagogues are talking this drug up - probably as much from profound ignorance as a desire to be seen to be making some positive personal contribution. I took some a few years ago as a malaria prophylactic and it gave me hallucinations - although I didn't get malaria (so of course it works!! :lol: ) I understand that India is the main/only producer of the drug and now doesn't want to share it. If it is found to be effective against c19 then its anti-inflammatory properties may form part of the explanation.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

I predict two longer term effects of the current situation:
1 a baby boom;
2 rampant inflation.

Perhaps I listed those in the wrong order.......


----------



## Andy Kev.

craigsalisbury":ysdz1od6 said:


> [
> 
> Trump is a glory seeker, if he can be seen to resolve this with as little damage as possible then he gets a lot of ego massaging. I doubt he would be peddling fantasy which will ruin that outcome, he like most political leaders are just taking advice from "the science experts" and giving it out.
> 
> oh and i put it in quotes because, just because you have a job doesn't mean you are good at it.


What do you think are the chances of getting to the top in any one of the sciences without having a proven, rock-solid track record of achievement?

It's not like politics, the arts or journalism where it is possible to just bluff your way to the top.

Trump is a number of things, most of them questionable. I doubt very much that his scientific advisors lack credibility and if anybody alleges that then the proof should be easy to come by.

What it amounts to is that if Trump is parroting good advice, then he is making sense. His motivation is neither here nor there.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Andy Kev.":3kxg5fr0 said:


> Now ask yourself what is the probability of Trump, in his capacity as a scientifically uneducated layman, plucking the name of a drug out of the air and saying that it may be a cure. Do you think it might be more probable that he was given this information by one of his scientific advisors?
> 
> Also ask yourself what are the odds of your making the fact that Trump is saying something the key indicator of its likely truth? In political matters you may well have a point, given his track record. In specific scientific matters, you may well be plumbing Trumpian depths of logic.



I've asked myself the first question and based on his track record wouldn't bet on him having paid attention to his scientific advisers. I'd bet first someone mentioned it and he embellished it wanting to be associated with it's discovery.

On your second point of guidance for me as was widely reported in the UK Press (and please let's not get into one of those silly debates about the press!) to be claiming here was a wonder cure was not the case. I'm not sure I'm joining the Donald Trump school of logic by any measure.

Perhaps my wider point is that the peddling of spurious online articles relating to research on cures and conspiracy theories may be entertaining for some but is not in my view helpful to anyone. 

However, it's a free world and it's within my gift to ignore it!


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Woody2Shoes":2r75ieby said:


> Trainee neophyte":2r75ieby said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't have any chloroquine, and I don't intend to take any, because it is a really nasty poison, which is why it works on the malaria parasite. It may or may not be useful for this virus - I have no knowledge. However, Morocco has bought the entire stock available: https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2020- ... 4IZL8.html
> 
> More interesting (from the original article I linked to) is that someone seems to nicked the entire French government stock (and possibly sold it to the Moroccan government?) I don't care particularly about its proven efficacy or otherwise - much more fun is the weird goings on and corruption that may or may not be happening across the Channel. Good to see modern, western societies are just as corrupt as your average sub-Saharan African dictatorship, when push comes to shove; they just do it differently.
> 
> 
> 
> Why not just read a more reliable source? It's all here: https://www.theguardian.com/science/202 ... s-patients and https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chlo ... -treatment
> 
> Yes, stupid populist demagogues are talking this drug up - probably as much from profound ignorance as a desire to be seen to be making some positive personal contribution. I took some a few years ago as a malaria prophylactic and it gave me hallucinations - although I didn't get malaria (so of course it works!! :lol: ) I understand that India is the main/only producer of the drug and now doesn't want to share it. If it is found to be effective against c19 then its anti-inflammatory properties may form part of the explanation.
Click to expand...


Thank you for the pukka gen, but again missing the point. Someone has, allegedly, stolen the entire French strategic reserve of this drug. Every country seems to be banning export of it, and the French pharma companies are being implicated in some sort of shakedown of the public. The article I linked to originally has lots of info about French government shenanigans, infighting, backbiting etc. It's the weekend, it's a fun article being beastly about the French - enjoy.


> My initial question to a serious, unimpeachable Paris source, jurist Valerie Bugault, was about the liaisons dangereuses between Macronism and Big Pharma and especially about the mysterious “disappearance” – more likely outright theft – of all the stocks of chloroquine in possession of the French government.



https://asiatimes.com/2020/03/why-franc ... irus-cure/

That one is just a bit of frivolity, the following is more relevant: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/


> According to the latest data of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.
> 
> 80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.



There is quite a bit more, with all the sources linked.


----------



## craigs

Andy Kev.":m058da49 said:


> craigsalisbury":m058da49 said:
> 
> 
> 
> [
> 
> Trump is a glory seeker, if he can be seen to resolve this with as little damage as possible then he gets a lot of ego massaging. I doubt he would be peddling fantasy which will ruin that outcome, he like most political leaders are just taking advice from "the science experts" and giving it out.
> 
> oh and i put it in quotes because, just because you have a job doesn't mean you are good at it.
> 
> 
> 
> What do you think are the chances of getting to the top in any one of the sciences without having a proven, rock-solid track record of achievement?
> 
> It's not like politics, the arts or journalism where it is possible to just bluff your way to the top.
> 
> Trump is a number of things, most of them questionable. I doubt very much that his scientific advisors lack credibility and if anybody alleges that then the proof should be easy to come by.
> 
> What it amounts to is that if Trump is parroting good advice, then he is making sense. His motivation is neither here nor there.
Click to expand...


Ok


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Woody2Shoes":39n3jaxg said:


> I predict two longer term effects of the current situation:
> 1 a baby boom;
> 2 rampant inflation.
> Perhaps I listed those in the wrong order.......



You forgot the dramatic increase in the divorce numbers.


----------



## Lons

Watching breakfast tv this morning a GP said it all as far as I'm concerned when asked how to deal with questionable information being spread around on social media and the internet.

Not exact words but basically_ Choose very carefully who you listen to and that should be the real experts, everyone out there is an *"expert"* at the minute, people should stick to what they know"_

Makes a lot of sense to me!


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Andy Kev.":2gjgliri said:


> What do you think are the chances of getting to the top in any one of the sciences without having a proven, rock-solid track record of achievement?
> 
> It's not like politics, the arts or journalism where it is possible to just bluff your way to the top...


Possibly my favourite quote of all: "Science makes progress funeral by funeral: the old are never converted by the new doctrines, they simply are replaced by a new generation." (attributed to Max Planck)


----------



## Phil Pascoe

Lons":y63aslxt said:


> Watching breakfast tv this morning a GP said it all as far as I'm concerned when asked how to deal with questionable information being spread around on social media and the internet.
> Not exact words but basically_ Choose very carefully who you listen to and that should be the real experts, everyone out there is an *"expert"* at the minute, people should stick to what they know"_
> Makes a lot of sense to me!



It would make sense to me to dedicate a BBC channel to it. All verified information could well publicised, all nonsense debunked. It would also give us a much needed rest from the blanket coverage - sometime the more people hear, the less notice they actually take.


----------



## Just4Fun

What web sites about corona virus are people using?

I have been looking for a good reliable source of statistics about the virus and how the number of cases grows. This site:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
has the sort of information I am looking for and as far as I know it is reliable and accurate (as far as anything can be at present). The problem is that it only gives data for today and yesterday. I would like to be able to get this data for any date since this virus was first tracked. Does anyone know where I could find that?


----------



## Andy Kev.

I've never come across that one before. It's actually quite deep.

There's one thing I've noticed on here and in conversations with friends in the real world. Those with a scientific cum technical background tend on the whole to be a bit more relaxed about this crisis than those who are not.

I have absolutely no intention whatsoever of being patronising here and please don't take it that way but it seems to me that if you have no scientific knowledge, two sensible courses of action are available:

a. Do take the official advice and stick to it and if you have a god, maybe do some praying if you are seriously worried.

b. Start boning up on how viruses and epidemics work. There are plenty of popular science books aimed at the interested layman/woman and IMO you would find them to be a great source of reassurance because a viral epidemic these days doesn't deserve the kind of reaction that a biblical plague or the black death would have generated. You'll also end up in a position where you can shut up the loud mouths in the cyber pub.

And in general terms, stay away from non-official internet sources on the subject as if you are not scientifically knowledgeable it is very hard to decide which are rubbish and which are good.


----------



## Chris152

Who has 'no scientific knowledge'? Come on, who is it?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Just4Fun":2r9m348h said:


> What web sites about corona virus are people using?
> 
> I have been looking for a good reliable source of statistics about the virus and how the number of cases grows. This site:
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
> has the sort of information I am looking for and as far as I know it is reliable and accurate (as far as anything can be at present). The problem is that it only gives data for today and yesterday. I would like to be able to get this data for any date since this virus was first tracked. Does anyone know where I could find that?



It does have lots of pretty graphs if you scroll down. Data is from 15 Feb onwards. You can click on each country in the table to get their own stats for eg: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Chris152":37toya4i said:


> Who has 'no scientific knowledge'? Come on, who is it?



I know! I know!!

Pick me!!!


----------



## Andy Kev.

I suggest to you that it is anybody who has not been involved in the practice of science at tertiary level education. The difference between that and bashing through the periodic table and being made aware of e.g. the very basics of photosynthesis at school is enormous.

The reason I make the above suggestion is that all the official advice is stemming from expert knowledge in virology and epidemiology. From what I can see from the nature of much reaction to it, is that many of those who are unhappy with it clearly have little knowledge of either. They're taking it on as if they had come out padded up for a game of cricket only to find themselves in the middle of a rugby match.

And I suspect that the _reason_ that many folk are reacting the way they are is that the measures and all the attendant fears are going directly to them personally. If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing then virtually no knowledge is (intellectually) more or less lethal. And then of course there are the people whose reactions are swayed to greater or lesser extents by politics.

Knowledge in the matter of this crisis will be a source of great reassurance and it will help with best practice in implementing the official advice. Of course most people will not bother about acquiring any such knowledge and the silliness will persist and attitudes will harden.


----------



## MusicMan

Andy Kev.":3u07xoio said:


> Two days ago I saw an interview with a scientist who claimed that certain molecular structures on the virus were identified very quickly by the Chinese and passed to scientists worldwide. They then did computer modelling of all known drugs to see which would be a literal physical fit on the structures as making the fit neutralises the viruses. Three candidates emerged. One of them is an anti-malarial drug (which may well be what Trump was on about). All three are undergoing trials, as you may imagine.
> 
> .



Not sure who was in the interview you saw, but this is pretty much exactly what I posted in this thread a couple of days ago. My source was a senior Oxford professor (a colleague and friend) who has been involved in the work. It is true that all countries with stocks of the target drugs have prohibited their export, and that they are all being trialled. That is all that we shall know until trials are concluded. It would be foolhardy in the extreme for an individual to try any of these drugs until trials are completed.


----------



## Andy Kev.

I can't remember the bloke's name but I can remember that he was an academic and/or professor and I think I saw the interview on BBC World.

Incidentally, the official predictions for the spread of the disease in Germany seem to have a degree of accuracy. This week is supposed to see a large increase in cases. The district in which I live has gone from a total of about 60 cases last Thursday week to a total of about 260 today. This puts the district at 2 cases per thousand of population.


----------



## lurker

Andy Kev.":2bq1c9ut said:


> I suggest to you that it is anybody who has not been involved in the practice of science at tertiary level education. The difference between that and bashing through the periodic table and being made aware of e.g. the very basics of photosynthesis at school is enormous.
> 
> The reason I make the above suggestion is that all the official advice is stemming from expert knowledge in virology and epidemiology. From what I can see from the nature of much reaction to it, is that many of those who are unhappy with it clearly have little knowledge of either. They're taking it on as if they had come out padded up for a game of cricket only to find themselves in the middle of a rugby match.
> 
> And I suspect that the _reason_ that many folk are reacting the way they are is that the measures and all the attendant fears are going directly to them personally. If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing then virtually no knowledge is (intellectually) more or less lethal. And then of course there are the people whose reactions are swayed to greater or lesser extents by politics.
> 
> Knowledge in the matter of this crisis will be a source of great reassurance and it will help with best practice in implementing the official advice. Of course most people will not bother about acquiring any such knowledge and the silliness will persist and attitudes will harden.



Although it is 40 years since I worked in medical microbiology I fully understand what you are saying.
Over the years, when I hear a scientist say “I think”, “it’s my theory that “, “ evidence may suggests “.
I am (because of my training) hearing something different to what a journalist does.
Theory presented as fact makes better copy.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Lurker,

I think you are reflecting the general level of dumbing down of the media that has gone on over the years. The BBC in particular now seems to take the line that it is talking down to not particularly bright, frightened children as opposed to giving informative briefings to sensible adults. I presume that they think that understanding the nuances of what the scientists are saying is way beyond us. 

Or maybe they are just dissatisfied with the lack of sensationalism that science offers.*

*There is one exception to this actually: those in search of scientific sensation should just go to youtube and do a search on pulsars. Quasars come a good second. Unfortunately this sort of thing does not generate a stick with which to beat politicians or induce tears so that's perhaps why the BBC is not interested.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":khqzq4de said:


> The reason I make the above suggestion is that all the official advice is stemming from expert knowledge in virology and epidemiology. From what I can see from the nature of much reaction to it, is that many of those who are unhappy with it clearly have little knowledge of either. They're taking it on as if they had come out padded up for a game of cricket only to find themselves in the middle of a rugby match.



This would make some modicum of sense if there was consensus among epidemiologists and virologists, but there is not, and the official UK approach is deeply contentious in those circles.

In those circumstances, this seems to me just to be your well trained authority bias coming through again.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Demonstrate my "well trained authority bias". It's a bit odd to find myself accused of that as my instinct is to question authority although I do not reject it when it is justified. You clearly want me to have an authority bias because you have shown beyond reasonable doubt that you have a highly political take on the virus matter (I am resolutely apolitical on it because to me it is not a matter of politics) and politics is not particularly interested in objectivity.

It would be also interesting to see to what extent epidemiologists and virologists diverge in opinion on the matter. In making that statement what I suspect is your political bias is again showing through because it is hardly likely that virologists will have any serious divergence of opinion: the virus either has certain structures/proteins/genome/modus operandii or it doesn't. As far as I am aware there is an exceedingly high degree of unity of opinion about these things in relation to the virus. Perhaps MusicMan could comment.

I also doubt that there is much divergence of view amongst epidemiologists as to the how the virus is behaving in an epidemiological sense and as to the various models of how it will mutate and adapt in the medium to long term.

What I suspect you are getting at (and from what you've posted I also suspect that you don't really understand) is that there is divergence of opinion in the implications for the nature and course of a public health response (which naturally becomes a political football) to what the epidemiologists are briefing. That would make sense which is more than your post does once subject to close examination.


----------



## RogerS

Lons":355q63fk said:


> Watching breakfast tv this morning a GP said it all as far as I'm concerned when asked how to deal with questionable information being spread around on social media and the internet.
> 
> Not exact words but basically_ Choose very carefully who you listen to and that should be the real experts, everyone out there is an *"expert"* at the minute, people should stick to what they know"_
> 
> Makes a lot of sense to me!



Hear, hear !


----------



## MikeG.

Well, I died in hospital a couple of days ago, apparently.

A friend has just rung up to commiserate with my wife, and was somewhat surprised when I answered the phone. Chinese whispers around small village communities...........


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RogerS":3f8zio9x said:


> Lons":3f8zio9x said:
> 
> 
> 
> Watching breakfast tv this morning a GP said it all as far as I'm concerned when asked how to deal with questionable information being spread around on social media and the internet.
> 
> Not exact words but basically_ Choose very carefully who you listen to and that should be the real experts, everyone out there is an *"expert"* at the minute, people should stick to what they know"_
> 
> Makes a lot of sense to me!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hear, hear !
Click to expand...


It does presuppose that government and "experts" have your best interests in mind when they make their decisions. It may be that you are considered expendable "acceptable collateral damage" in their calculations - perhaps best for the entire population, but best for you as an individual? I say question everything, especially the "experts".


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":116sny0o said:


> You clearly want me to have an authority bias because you have shown beyond reasonable doubt that you have a highly political take on the virus matter.



You have based this on my posts about one of the leading scientists the official policy was based on admitting his modelling was defective.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Jake":7dw8x8zr said:


> Andy Kev.":7dw8x8zr said:
> 
> 
> 
> You clearly want me to have an authority bias because you have shown beyond reasonable doubt that you have a highly political take on the virus matter.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You have based this on my posts about one of the leading scientists the official policy was based on admitting his modelling was defective.
Click to expand...


There's no shame in admitting that a model has defects - all models do. What would be reprehensible would be failing to admit shortcomings of a model, when they were identified, and failing to try and remedy them in a revised model.

All scientists/medics are operating without full information in this case - models are all that we have and ideally, they are improving as we have more data and more learning - it's a numbers game after all.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":3evipmgz said:


> What I suspect you are getting at (and from what you've posted I also suspect that you don't really understand) is that there is divergence of opinion in the implications for the nature and course of a public health response (which naturally becomes a political football) to what the epidemiologists are briefing.



So first you say we should trust the (contentious) official public health policies because they are based on the science, then you say underlying science is relatively non-contentious and it is just public health policy which might be contentious. 

I am not a scientist but enough of a logical thinker to see a flaw there.


----------



## Jake

Woody2Shoes":1uiapnq4 said:


> There's no shame in admitting that a model has defects - all models do.



I agree - with the caveat that this was a pretty fundamental oversight of not updating a key assumption from the flu model. What really failed was the auditing during the policy formation stage which used the modelling as the evidence base. 



> What would be reprehensible would be failing to admit shortcomings of a model, when they were identified, and failing to try and remedy them in a revised model.



Yes that would be even worse, as would a range of other worse things that didn't happen.



> All scientists/medics are operating without full information in this case - models are all that we have and ideally, they are improving as we have more data and more learning - it's a numbers game after all.



Yes agreed, and that is the nature of science and dealing with something novel. Continuing to use flu data on hospitalisation demands for 3 months when there was COVID data available should have been exposed sooner by proper scrutiny though. 

It did get exposed eventually, precisely because there were so many eminent critics of the public health approach asking to see and scrutinise the underlying modelling. If they had simply sat back and respected authority and official policy the error might not have been caught at all (or at least until much later). The critique of the official govt mitigation strategy led to Johnson agreeing to publish the modelling, which triggered the internal scrutiny in preparation for that, which clearly (but inferentially) led to them alighting on the incorrect carried over assumption.

It's a bit like how science works really, through people critiquing each other's work and not accepting "official" lines.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":3806236q said:


> Andy Kev.":3806236q said:
> 
> 
> 
> What I suspect you are getting at (and from what you've posted I also suspect that you don't really understand) is that there is divergence of opinion in the implications for the nature and course of a public health response (which naturally becomes a political football) to what the epidemiologists are briefing.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So first you say we should trust the (contentious) official public health policies because they are based on the science, then you say underlying science is relatively non-contentious and it is just public health policy which might be contentious.
> 
> I am not a scientist but enough of a logical thinker to see a flaw there.
Click to expand...


No I was pointing out that as far as I am aware there is little divergence of view amongst virologists and epidemiologists, which is something which you were asserting and which I doubt you will be able to demonstrate.

Public health policy in a sane society is based on the advice provided by the scientists. However, what emerges is subject to all kinds of non-scientific constraints, limitations and societal considerations. A number of models are likely to emerge as alternatives. Economics will be one factor, for instance, that plays a huge role in this but on which the science has nothing to say. That is how you can get a choice of approaches, there probably being no single correct one. For instance, the Swedes have opted for only the lightest set of restrictions, having apparently set their hopes on the herd immunity approach.

Once all this is over and the definitive data are available, reviews will be conducted and the best model will be chosen as the future contingency plan for epi- and pandemics.

IMO there is no room within that for pathetic party politics, something which I think your posts so far indicate is driving your approach to this.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2oqea5nc said:


> Now ask yourself what is the probability of Trump, in his capacity as a scientifically uneducated layman, plucking the name of a drug out of the air and saying that it may be a cure. Do you think it might be more probable that he was given this information by one of his scientific advisors?



It's all based on a study by Didier Raoult (or rather a team under him), a somewhat controversial figure and a widely criticised study (not randomly controlled, some oddities in the testing procedures and anomalies in the data). Fauci described it as "anecdotal" which as you will understand is a properly barbed insult to use of a scientific study/paper. 

The idea it was the magic bullet caught fire in the alt-right circles, because they are desperate to support Trump's head in sand approach to the epidemic, so prefer to grasp at straws of immediate cures rather than accepting there are going to be some very hard yards. It became one step from colloidal silver. (There was another more rigorous Chinese study which showed no benefit, that got ignored in favour of Raoult's study). 

No doubt more studies will rightly be done, but I don't imagine for a minute that Trump got this idea from the likes of Fauci who has tried pretty hard to squish Trump's hapless messaging on this (as is a large part of Fauci's job at the moment).


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":35e4vyh3 said:


> IMO there is no room within that for pathetic party politics, something which I think your posts so far indicate is driving your approach to this.



You are completely wrong on this, but I think it reflects your own motivations.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":2f2ek3uz said:


> ..
> IMO there is no room within that for pathetic party politics, something which I think your posts so far indicate is driving your approach to this.



I'm not aware that Jake or anyone has specifically brought party politics into it. What we have done is commented on how woefully incompetent the Govt has been over this. This is Govt with a small 'g' ...it could be any party. They had a lot of warning. They continue to botch things up viz the EU and ventilator saga. The fact that there isn't nearly enough PPE equipment for healthcare workers. That healthcare workers are now, finally, going to be tested. 

The record speaks for itself. March 11 target - 10,000 tests per day - not yet achieved. Germany - 500,000 tests a week.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2853shnr said:


> No I was pointing out that as far as I am aware there is little divergence of view amongst virologists and epidemiologists, which is something which you were asserting and which I doubt you will be able to demonstrate.



It depends what you mean by that. 



> Public health policy in a sane society is based on the advice provided by the scientists.



It is certainly a fundamental plank of the evidence base for sane policy making.



> However, what emerges is subject to all kinds of non-scientific constraints, limitations and societal considerations. A number of models are likely to emerge as alternatives.



Yes well that is obviously true as well. I have just typed this. 



> Economics will be one factor, for instance, that plays a huge role in this but on which the science has nothing to say. That is how you can get a choice of approaches, there probably being no single correct one.



Also obviously correct - there will be different circumstances in different countries, and ranges of approaches which are reasonable to adopt within any given country in circumstances where policy makers are dealing with a novel and evolving disease and novel and untested countermeasures.



> For instance, the Swedes have opted for only the lightest set of restrictions, having apparently set their hopes on the herd immunity approach.



As did the Dutch until they also abandoned it shortly after we did, when the mistake in the Imperial College modelling came to light.

The Swedish approach is controversial. I suspect you will object to a link to the Guardian but the links in this story will give you examples of virologists and epidemiologists and public health experts and medical journals amongst others demonstrating a massive divergence of view from the official policy and its science base.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... d-immunity


----------



## Just4Fun

Andy Kev.":bpvhehr4 said:


> I have absolutely no intention whatsoever of being patronising here and please don't take it that way but it seems to me that if you have no scientific knowledge, two sensible courses of action are available:


I don't claim to be a scientist - I studied mathematics at university, not any physical science. That is why I would like to get my hands on the actual numbers so I can analyse them myself rather than look at pretty graphs produced by someone else. However, SWMBO is a Dr of science and I regularly proof-read papers she writes, so I have some understanding of how a scientist approaches things, even if she does work in a very different field. Between the 2 of us I think we understand enough to sensibly look at the raw data and draw our own conclusions.


----------



## Jake

I don't have the skill set to do anything more than notice experts linking to it, but this is reputedly the best global data resource. 

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19


----------



## ScaredyCat

I thought “people in this country have had enough of experts”, as Gove would put it.

When you teach people to ignore the experts because it suits your cause at the time, they're going to ignore experts full stop. 

.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Just4Fun":31zvtycr said:


> Andy Kev.":31zvtycr said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have absolutely no intention whatsoever of being patronising here and please don't take it that way but it seems to me that if you have no scientific knowledge, two sensible courses of action are available:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't claim to be a scientist - I studied mathematics at university, not any physical science. That is why I would like to get my hands on the actual numbers so I can analyse them myself rather than look at pretty graphs produced by someone else. However, SWMBO is a Dr of science and I regularly proof-read papers she writes, so I have some understanding of how a scientist approaches things, even if she does work in a very different field. Between the 2 of us I think we understand enough to sensibly look at the raw data and draw our own conclusions.
Click to expand...

My remark was a general one directed at no specific individual. Ultimately it's a matter of self knowledge as to how able one is to judge. I imagine that you and your wife can indeed act as per your last sentence.

What I personally will be avoiding is any sort of judgement until all the facts are in the open which I reckon will take some time.

Consider a different issue which offers some parallels in how we perceive it: I think that the decision to let Huawei in on 5G provision was disastrous from a point of view of national security. I still find it amazing that we have done it and can see no excuse for it. However, I can't ultimately decide whether the decision was acceptable or not because I have not and am never likely to read the assessments provided to the government by GCHQ and the Security Service.

That said my current bottom line on that issue is that although I wouldn't have touched Huawei with a 90 foot bargepole, the government clearly thinks that it was safe enough to do so and presumably can justify that.

By way of contrast we are more likely to be able to judge whether or not the govt. acted wisely on Corona but as far as I can see we are not in a position to do that yet.


----------



## Andy Kev.

ScaredyCat":e58w7cy5 said:


> I thought “people in this country have had enough of experts”, as Gove would put it.
> 
> When you teach people to ignore the experts because it suits your cause at the time, they're going to ignore experts full stop.



The following is from an interview with Michael Gove (of whom I am definitely not a fan):

_You’ve recently qualified your assertion that people have ‘had enough of experts’. Can you explain why?

When I was being interviewed on Sky by Faisal Islam, he put it to me that there were a number of economists and organizations of economic prestige that questioned the arguments for leaving the European Union and said that it would be a mistake if we did. I countered it by saying people have had enough of experts from organizations with acronyms that have got things so wrong in the past. And Faisal Islam, as a skilled interrogator, cut me off half way, so while I completed my sentence he took the first half and said ‘people have had enough experts?’ and used that as a fencing posture in the interview itself.

One of the things I have sought to do is to explain why I said what I said. Now the words I used have been taken out of context, but that’s just part of politics. So while I feel a need to remind people of what I actually said I don’t get too het up by the fact that my words, like those of many politicians or many actors in public debate, sometimes get a little bit skewed. That’s just life._

Note that he was talking about economic experts whose predictions about the UK leaving the EU have so far proved resoundingly wrong. The point is that even economists will not claim that economics is any kind of science and also accept that its predictions are notoriously unreliable if they attempt to go any more than about three years into the future. The Treasury was making 11 year predictions at the time.

Now compare and contrast the credibility of those experts with epidemiologists and virologists and the point you are making is what precisely?


----------



## ScaredyCat

Andy Kev.":1il146zz said:


> the point you are making is what precisely?



That if you teach people that they should ignore experts and listen to charlatans, they will ignore experts at a time when you probably don't want them to. 

A rather fitting quote from "The American President"



> People want leadership. And in the absence of genuine leadership, they will listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership.... They’re so thirsty for it, they’ll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there’s no water, they’ll drink the sand.



.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":2n5jkqxk said:


> Ultimately it's a matter of self knowledge as to how able one is to judge.



ROTFLMAO - can I have my tenner?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

I have been rummaging through the following article, which I strongly recommend, even if it makes you want to throw things: https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/

It has some startlingly different takes on things:


> The mortality profile remains puzzling from a virological point of view because, in contrast to influenza viruses, children are spared and men are affected about twice as often as women. On the other hand, this profile corresponds to natural mortality, which is close to zero for children and almost twice as high for 75-year-old men as for women of the same age.
> The younger test-positive deceased almost always had severe pre-existing conditions. For example, a 21-year-old Spanish soccer coach had died test-positive, making international headlines. However, the doctors diagnosed an unrecognized leukemia, whose typical complications include severe pneumonia.
> The decisive factor in assessing the danger of the disease is therefore not the number of test-positive persons and deceased, which is often mentioned in the media, but the number of people actually and unexpectedly developing or dying from pneumonia (so-called excess mortality). So far, this value remains very low in most countries.





> The Italian National Health Institute ISS has published a new report on test-positive deaths:
> 
> The median age is 80.5 years (79.5 for men, 83.7 for women).
> 10% of the deceased was over 90 years old; 90% of the deceased was over 70 years old.
> At most 0.8% of the deceased had no pre-existing chronic illnesses.
> Approximately 75% of the deceased had two or more pre-existing conditions, 50% had three more pre-existing conditions, in particular heart disease, diabetes and cancer.
> Five of the deceased were between 31 and 39 years old, all of them with serious pre-existing health conditions (e.g. cancer or heart disease).
> The National Health Institute hasn’t yet determined what the patients examined ultimately died of and refers to them in general terms as Covid19-positive deaths.





> Regarding the situation in Italy: Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths „with the coronavirus and not from the coronavirus“ (minute 03:30 of the press conference). In other words, these persons died while also testing positive.
> 
> As Professors Ioannidis and Bhakdi have shown, countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19, while the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an extra­polated mortality figure in the per mille range, i.e. at or below the level of the seasonal flu.
> 
> Current test-positive death figures in Italy are still less than 50% of normal daily overall mortality in Italy, which is around 1800 deaths per day. Thus it is possible, perhaps even likely, that a large part of normal daily mortality now simply counts as „Covid19“ deaths (as they test positive). This is the point stressed by the President of the Italian Civil Protection Service.
> 
> However, by now it is clear that certain regions in Northern Italy, i.e. those facing the toughest lockdown measures, are experiencing markedly increased daily mortality figures. It is also known that in the Lombardy region, 90% of test-positive deaths occur not in intensive care units, but instead mostly at home. And more than 99% have serious pre-existing health conditions.
> 
> Professor Sucharit Bhakdi has called lockdown measures „useless“, „self-destructive“ and a „collective suicide“. Thus the extremely troubling question arises as to what extent the increased mortality of these elderly, isolated, highly stressed people with multiple pre-existing health conditions may in fact be caused by the weeks-long lockdown measures still in force.
> 
> If so, it may be one of those cases where the treatment is worse than the disease. (See update below: only 12% of death certificates show the coronavirus as a cause.)



If, and it's a big if, this article is presenting accurate data (lots of pukka links suggesting it might be), then something very weird is going on.


----------



## doctor Bob

I wonder if the people dieing in ICU's are thinking they should have spent more time on that internet arguement............


----------



## Jake

I expect they are wishing they were more pious Bob.


----------



## Just4Fun

Andy Kev.":jfvovy5n said:


> What I personally will be avoiding is any sort of judgement until all the facts are in the open which I reckon will take some time.


Fair enough. Personally I am not really interested in making judgements at all, now or in the future. I am more interested in playing with the data to identify trends & changes, or make predictions. Not with any object in mind; more because, being a bit of a geek, I like to play with numbers. If my conclusions turn out to be wrong it will make no difference at all to anyone as nobody (not even me) is going to rely on my calculations for anything except intellectual curiosity.


----------



## Andy Kev.

ScaredyCat":1n2pcog9 said:


> Andy Kev.":1n2pcog9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> the point you are making is what precisely?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That if you teach people that they should ignore experts and listen to charlatans, they will ignore experts at a time when you probably don't want them to.
> 
> A rather fitting quote from "The American President"
> 
> 
> 
> 
> People want leadership. And in the absence of genuine leadership, they will listen to anyone who steps up to the microphone. They want leadership.... They’re so thirsty for it, they’ll crawl through the desert toward a mirage, and when they discover there’s no water, they’ll drink the sand.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> .
Click to expand...


I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans. There's nothing wrong with accusing somebody of something they have done but to accuse them of what they demonstrably have not done seems a bit odd to me. His remarks about economic experts - and they were confined explicitly to that group - were entirely justified by the historical record.

As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling.

To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.


----------



## ScaredyCat

doctor Bob":2rep6jd9 said:


> I wonder if the people dieing in ICU's are thinking they should have spent more time on that internet arguement............



Doctors and nurses, or patients?

.


----------



## Just4Fun

Jake":3hrwofov said:


> I don't have the skill set to do anything more than notice experts linking to it, but this is reputedly the best global data resource.
> 
> https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19


Excellent! Just what I was looking for.


----------



## RogerS

@Just4Fun

Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !


----------



## Droogs

Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)


----------



## Andy Kev.

RogerS":3ui08uqs said:


> @Just4Fun
> 
> Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !


If he can understand dark matter he's definitely a shoo in for a Nobel Prize, cos nobody else has understood it yet. As one wag put it: if the theories say that 80% of the matter in the universe is missing, it might be time to have a look at the theories instead of looking for the matter.

Should you want a gentle (-ish) introduction to all this, may I recommend _Galaxies and Cosmology_ by Jones, Lambourne et al. I can't do maths either but I am able to bash through text. I suppose it all depends on how much you need to occupy yourself during the coming confinement.

It would be quite amusing if somebody came up with the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything because he'd finished his book of Su Doku during the corona crisis and had nothing better to do.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:


> I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans.



Not directly but the brexit process, something he is very much part of, has. It has shown that the truth doesn't matter as long as you repeat the lie enough times. They (and he) simply taught people to listen to charlatans by repeating their lies. 



Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:


> As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling.



He said those words. I was merely using the well known words he used. 



Andy Kev.":183jp4ui said:


> To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.



Probably why I didn't make it.


edit to fix wonky quoting
.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Droogs":r1pzwn8f said:


> Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)


Oh yes!!!

The raw stuff of conspiracy theories! 

Give it maximum distribution.


----------



## Andy Kev.

ScaredyCat":1jyxvvkh said:


> Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think that Gove was "teaching" anybody anything and he was certainly not suggesting that people should listen to charlatans.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not directly but the brexit process, something he is very much part of, has. It has shown that the truth doesn't matter as long as you repeat the lie enough times. They (and he) simply taught people to listen to charlatans by repeating their lies.
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
> 
> 
> 
> As he pointed out, the key remark was instantly taken out of context and yet you still want to latch on to it. Baffling./quote]
> 
> He said those words. I was merely using the well known words he used.
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":1jyxvvkh said:
> 
> 
> 
> To link the particularly dubious figure of Trump to Gove seems to me to be a bit of a non-sequitur.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Probably why I didn't make it.
> 
> .
Click to expand...

Just bear in mind that we're not supposed to be discussing the B word. In any event, the jury is still out on that too and we won't know the facts until all the dust settles in three to five years.

If following one thing directly with another, presumably to illustrate the first point isn't to link them, then I don't know what is.

(And just to cover my behind: there is no link between my first and second paras in this post. :mrgreen


----------



## ScaredyCat

Droogs":29u5i5jd said:


> Just came across an interesting news feed on the NTD chanel on youtube. Apparently over the last 3 months 25 million mobile phone accounts in China have dropped to a zero usage status, mainly amongst their version of PAYG used mostly by the poorest migrant workers (18 millo leaving 6 unaccounted for)



Any other detail on this? Where's the data from?

.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Andy Kev.":qwqkgq7j said:


> If following one thing directly with another, presumably to illustrate the first point isn't to link them, then I don't know what is.



1) The phrase is a well known one and illustrates with, what I, obviously incorrectly, thought might be comedic value, that you reap what you sow. 
2) I regard him as one of the Charlatans. 
3) Yes, COVID-19 thread.
4) , , ,

.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":24zlyd2s said:


> .....
> It would be quite amusing if somebody came up with the answer to Life, The Universe and Everything because he'd finished his book of Su Doku during the corona crisis and had nothing better to do.



:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: =D> =D>


----------



## Droogs

saw it here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfDAcuSMSZo&t=305s

my bad it's 21 million not 25 apologies I am a bit tired these days

not osted as a conspiricy just found it interesting


----------



## MusicMan

Andy Kev.":20kkqz64 said:


> ...
> 
> It would be also interesting to see to what extent epidemiologists and virologists diverge in opinion on the matter. In making that statement what I suspect is your political bias is again showing through because it is hardly likely that virologists will have any serious divergence of opinion: the virus either has certain structures/proteins/genome/modus operandii or it doesn't. As far as I am aware there is an exceedingly high degree of unity of opinion about these things in relation to the virus. Perhaps MusicMan could comment.



Andy Kev, from my very limited knowledge (I'm a materials scientist not a virologist, I just know some of those working in the field) I think you are probably right about the agreement amongst virologists. And I do know that the epidemiology is by no means regarded as settled, but as work-in-progress. The methods are quite well-established and not controversial but the parameters and influences are at present best-assumptions, which are refined as more data from the UK and other countries are available. There is also the question of how best to handle the very large and disparate data sets that are coming out from the different countries. The epidemiological community, which is small but very strong in the UK, is working flat out to refine and improve the models in addition to spending much time advising government bodies. A call has in fact just gone out to the whole of the UK modelling community (all university research teams, all scientists with track record in the field including long-retired ones like myself) to add either specific expertise, cross-disciplinary insights (for example, how very large data sets in other fields are handled) or human and computing resource to help them in this national effort. It is coordinated by the Royal Society. The first aim is to understand the potential effects of the various options for exiting the escalating lock-down strategy in order to make more robust predictions.

If you have real research skills to offer in modelling then you will be able to get involved in this programme, which is called RAPID ASSISTANCE IN MODELLING THE PANDEMIC: RAMP, through your university or industrial contacts. 

I am not engaging in the current mudslinging (political or scientific), nascent conspiracy theories or in the simplistic epidemiology that is going on in this thread. Nor am I judging it.

On a slightly lighter note, others might enjoy the music video by Jon Lajoie "Thank god for the ---- nerds".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QCkN_b ... e=youtu.be


----------



## Chris152

MusicMan":ga9rtgjx said:


> I am not engaging in the current mudslinging (political or scientific), nascent conspiracy theories or in the simplistic epidemiology that is going on in this thread. Nor am I judging it.


 :lol:


----------



## Rorschach

Very interesting bit of news today. I will try and keep it brief and I have changed a few unimportant details to prevent identification as the person who told me is worried about the legal ramifications.

Close family friend (FF) in their late 90's. Dementia but living on their own cared for everyday by their son. Son collapses with brain haemorrhage, goes into hospital in a coma, dies shortly after. FF doesn't really realise they are gone as just thinks they have missed a daily visit, other family members have taken up the slack in the interim. This can't continue so FF is taken into a care home after another week or so. After a couple of weeks in the care home FF, otherwise in excellent health, is admitted to hospital with pneumonia, dies shortly afterwards. Nothing suspicious for us. This is mid February, cause of death listed as pneumonia, not unusual for an elderly person. Funeral held last week.
Word from care home staff after recent events, symptoms before the pneumonia were in line with Coronavirus, several other "inmates" had the similar symptoms in Jan/Feb, a few passed away from pneumonia. None of these deaths listed as coronavirus related, all occurred before the media hype started and first official cases were identified.

Very interesting!


----------



## Andy Kev.

MusicMan,

thanks for the above. It's informative and encouraging.


----------



## Jake

MusicMan":263vms7a said:


> Andy Kev, from my very limited knowledge (I'm a materials scientist not a virologist, I just know some of those working in the field) I think you are probably right about the agreement amongst virologists.



About what though? The make-up of the virus? They've done amazing work (not least in China) on that sort of analysis, and the early stages of looking at cures and vaccines. Super-impressive from the scientific community.



> And I do know that the epidemiology is by no means regarded as settled, but as work-in-progress. The methods are quite well-established and not controversial but the parameters and influences are at present best-assumptions, which are refined as more data from the UK and other countries are available.



Again, indisputably and inescapably the case. And they're doing great work, not least in testing each other's assumptions and outputs.

The ONE issue which has arisen was just that: a failure to use best-assumptions for COVID because the Imperial team did not update one of its assumptions made in its flu model to reflect the best assumptions for COVID. 

The head of the team admitted this in an interview with the FT. They caught it in after the decision to publish their modelling. Neil Ferguson has been pretty open about that, and then popped up on Twitter last week or so to say by way of explanation that it was an assumption buried in 20k lines of C program he wrote 17 [from memory] years ago. That's a mea culpa in anyone's language. 

The mistake is maybe understandable, but should have been checked as it is a key assumption from public health terms given the known empirical experiences in Wuhan and then Lombardy was that the demands were much higher than a flu and the health systems were crashing way beyond capacity. 

The bigger issue is the decision making and policy process (which is not a matter of science, nor really of politics although it is inescapably going to be influenced by that, not least in popping up risks such as confirmation bias). As the govt framed its whole mitigation policy around aiming to manage the spread of the disease just below NHS surge capacity, the assumption as to how much demand on the NHS there would be is obviously key and one does not need to be an epidemiologist, virologist or scientist to understand that. It's really just a very basic check that the scientific evidence base on which you are choosing to rely has been prepared with due care and attention without any slip-ups of the sort Neil Ferguson has admitted to. 




> There is also the question of how best to handle the very large and disparate data sets that are coming out from the different countries. The epidemiological community, which is small but very strong in the UK, is working flat out to refine and improve the models in addition to spending much time advising government bodies. A call has in fact just gone out to the whole of the UK modelling community (all university research teams, all scientists with track record in the field including long-retired ones like myself) to add either specific expertise, cross-disciplinary insights (for example, how very large data sets in other fields are handled) or human and computing resource to help them in this national effort. It is coordinated by the Royal Society. The first aim is to understand the potential effects of the various options for exiting the escalating lock-down strategy in order to make more robust predictions.



All great applaudable stuff, and yes, thank god for the nerds.


----------



## lurker

I have just been reading about past pandemics.
Obviously the plague(s) and Spanish flu are common knowledge 
A surprise to me is that there was a flu pandemic in1957-8
Apparently at least a million died worldwide and 14,000 in the uk.

My surprise is that I am pretty sure my parents (and in laws)never discussed this even though they were all very fond of recounting how hard life was “back in the old days “.
I wonder if this is due to our manifold and far reaching forms of communication?


----------



## MusicMan

I was a sufferer in the pandemic of 1957-8. I was at a boarding school of 800 boys, and about 500, as I recall, were ill. I was off for 2 weeks, came back too soon (it was A levels year), and had a frightening standing-up blackout - literally went blind for about a minute, though not unconscious. Scary time. Nobody died though. It didn't enter the narrative the way the 1918 epidemic did, which I often heard about from my father (a pharmacist).


----------



## Rorschach

lurker":1ly8jpv9 said:


> I have just been reading about past pandemics.
> Obviously the plague(s) and Spanish flu are common knowledge
> A surprise to me is that there was a flu pandemic in1957-8
> Apparently at least a million died worldwide and 14,000 in the uk.
> 
> My surprise is that I am pretty sure my parents (and in laws)never discussed this even though they were all very fond of recounting how hard life was “back in the old days “.
> I wonder if this is due to our manifold and far reaching forms of communication?



14,000, that's small beans, in 2014/15 nearly 29,000 people died from flu in the UK. Do you remember that causing a lockdown and media outrage?


----------



## Jake

Population is obviously bigger now but PHE reckons seasonal flu kills 17k annually, so 14k then would have been a spike but not that extraordinary.

Pandemic is about international spread not deadliness.


----------



## Jake

Rorschach":dhv8u20h said:


> 14,000, that's small beans, in 2014/15 nearly 29,000 people died from flu in the UK. Do you remember that causing a lockdown and media outrage?



No, but that's because (with the COVID hospitalisation rate assumptions corrected to reflect empirical evidence), the Imperial College team now projects 500k deaths in an unchecked COVID-19 epidemic.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Rorschach":2zo4gpbd said:


> lurker":2zo4gpbd said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have just been reading about past pandemics.
> Obviously the plague(s) and Spanish flu are common knowledge
> A surprise to me is that there was a flu pandemic in1957-8
> Apparently at least a million died worldwide and 14,000 in the uk.
> 
> My surprise is that I am pretty sure my parents (and in laws)never discussed this even though they were all very fond of recounting how hard life was “back in the old days “.
> I wonder if this is due to our manifold and far reaching forms of communication?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 14,000, that's small beans, in 2014/15 nearly 29,000 people died from flu in the UK. Do you remember that causing a lockdown and media outrage?
Click to expand...


Well, here's the problem - they almost certainly didn't die of the 'flu - they would have died from the one or two or three or more pre-existing conditions, not the influenza virus itself. Afterwards some epidemiologist would have applied lots of very exciting maths to the data to work out the number of deaths over and above the "normal" level, and given that as a number. The same thing is NOT happening now, as every single Coronavirus death is reported as a death due to Coronavirus, despite the individual having any number of pre-existing conditions. The excess winter deaths are unknown, uncalculated, and unreported. Possibly, as up until now the 'flu season has been very mild, there are not any excess deaths.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Jake":15vwtfzn said:


> Rorschach":15vwtfzn said:
> 
> 
> 
> 14,000, that's small beans, in 2014/15 nearly 29,000 people died from flu in the UK. Do you remember that causing a lockdown and media outrage?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> No, but that's because (with the COVID hospitalisation rate assumptions corrected to reflect empirical evidence), the Imperial College team now projects 500k deaths in an unchecked COVID-19 epidemic.
Click to expand...


From the article I keep quoting:


> A model from Imperial College London predicted between 250,000 and 500,000 deaths in the UK „from“ Covid-19, but the authors of the study have now conceded that many of these deaths would not be in addition to, but rather part of the normal annual mortality rate, which in the UK is about 600,000 people per year. In other words, excess mortality would remain low.



I'm not saying the above is correct, but it is interesting, and I would like to see anything that dispute it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654



> But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.
> 
> Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and needs caveats.
> 
> Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.
> 
> The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these, as statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, explains.
> 
> "There will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period."


----------



## Jake

An interesting perspective, I missed that More or Less.



> The Imperial College London modelling suggests that if the virus was allowed to let rip and we did nothing to reduce its impact, around 80% of the population would be expected to get it and around half a million would die. So if everyone got it, around 600,000 would die – which is about the number of people who die each year in the UK. So if everyone got the virus we’d get a year’s worth of death all at once. Of course anything remotely near that would be catastrophic in terms of the stresses on society. This is why dampening down the curve is vital – because although the risks to an individual are low, when you multiply them up over vast numbers of people then the total impact on society is huge, especially when it comes all at once.



This assumes 100% overlap between those who would have died anyway and those who will die from COVID. There's obviously a substantial one given the clear link with age and co-morbidity, but 100% is a punchy assumption, and strikes me as a bit of mathematical musing about individual risk perceptions rather than a detailed substantive analysis.


----------



## Rorschach

Trainee neophyte":2z2fziie said:


> Well, here's the problem - they almost certainly didn't die of the 'flu - they would have died from the one or two or three or more pre-existing conditions, not the influenza virus itself. Afterwards some epidemiologist would have applied lots of very exciting maths to the data to work out the number of deaths over and above the "normal" level, and given that as a number. The same thing is NOT happening now, as every single Coronavirus death is reported as a death due to Coronavirus, despite the individual having any number of pre-existing conditions. The excess winter deaths are unknown, uncalculated, and unreported. Possibly, as up until now the 'flu season has been very mild, there are not any excess deaths.



BINGO!

An epidemiologist on the radio last week said this winters flue deaths are one of the lowest on record (so sub 3k I would guess) and even with coronavirus added in we might actually be looking at a very low mortality rate for this year, probably even lower than a bad (20k+) flu year. 
The only difference was if left unchecked (i.e no lockdown) there could be a missive spike for March/April, but otherwise deaths would be pretty average.

As I have pointed out before in this thread, 1700 people die in the UK every day (on average), in a month coronavirus has killed just over 1000, of course how many were actually coronavirus directly is unknown, but likely very few.


----------



## Jake

You literally have to disbelieve the evidence of your own eyes to think this is nothing out of the ordinary death toll.

Too much alt-right YouTube bollix for me.


----------



## Rorschach

Jake":1o93i73d said:


> You literally have to disbelieve the evidence of your own eyes to think this is nothing out of the ordinary death toll.
> 
> Too much alt-right YouTube bollix for me.



Happy to be proved wrong (well not really, it would be awful), we'll come back to this comment in a year or so.


----------



## ScaredyCat

Rorschach":2wluggk9 said:


> As I have pointed out before in this thread, 1700 people die in the UK every day (on average), in a month coronavirus has killed just over 1000, of course how many were actually coronavirus directly is unknown, but likely very few.



Don't get too excited, it's only March.

.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":22kdd842 said:


> lurker":22kdd842 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I have just been reading about past pandemics.
> Obviously the plague(s) and Spanish flu are common knowledge
> A surprise to me is that there was a flu pandemic in1957-8
> Apparently at least a million died worldwide and 14,000 in the uk.
> 
> My surprise is that I am pretty sure my parents (and in laws)never discussed this even though they were all very fond of recounting how hard life was “back in the old days “.
> I wonder if this is due to our manifold and far reaching forms of communication?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 14,000, that's small beans, in 2014/15 nearly 29,000 people died from flu in the UK. Do you remember that causing a lockdown and media outrage?
Click to expand...


I think that you are letting your own personal position colour your judgement. Have you actually stopped to think what would/will happen without a lockdown ? Do you not read the papers ?


----------



## Jake

Jake":1o2ixm30 said:


> An interesting perspective, I missed that More or Less.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Imperial College London modelling suggests that if the virus was allowed to let rip and we did nothing to reduce its impact, around 80% of the population would be expected to get it and around half a million would die. So if everyone got it, around 600,000 would die – which is about the number of people who die each year in the UK. So if everyone got the virus we’d get a year’s worth of death all at once. Of course anything remotely near that would be catastrophic in terms of the stresses on society. This is why dampening down the curve is vital – because although the risks to an individual are low, when you multiply them up over vast numbers of people then the total impact on society is huge, especially when it comes all at once.
Click to expand...


I should have quoted the entire piece. I didn't read it carefully enough to see through the spin TN's variant had placed on it. The paragraphs after the above are as follows (my emphasis)



> *If the measures we’ve put in place for COVID-19 work, even if we do get up to having hundreds of deaths per day, then the total number of deaths over the whole population might not be much bigger than normal for the year.* Because the people who will die with COVID-19 are mostly elderly and have other conditions, many of them are likely to have died within the near future, but COVID-19 is bringing their deaths forward. Many deaths labelled as COVID may normally have been allocated to another cause a few months later on. The degree of overlap is currently uncertain – we can’t know how many of these deaths would have happened anyway...
> 
> It’s important we act not because of an individual decision – my own individual risk is quite low, but it is not my risk to me, it is my risk to the people around me which is important, which is why we need social distancing...
> 
> Deaths in the UK so far have been increasing about 25% per day – if they were to continue at that rate it would in theory lead to 10,000 deaths per day by mid April. * BUT the numbers won’t get that scary precisely because of the steps we are taking to slow the spread of the disease – which is why the measures are so important.*”


----------



## steve1001

Good day Gentleman.

My sister and her husband have just arrived back, on a plane, from Australia.
They entered the UK via Heathrow.
They were not tested for temperature or Covid, or looked at by anyone.
They were not quarantined.
They were told to go home and stay at home.
Of course, after coming back from 5 weeks in Australia they had no food. My sister joined the 25 minute queue that snaked around the car parks at the supermarket, shopped, and got food.

The authorities don't seem to be treating this as seriously as they have lead me to beleve. I mean, fresh off the plane and they were not tested! I must be missing something.

Steve (panic buyer and hoarder, and now good for 2 months at home without having to go out for supplies)


----------



## RogerS

Here's an interesting thought. Waitrose (and I assume other supermarkets) are looking to implement some form of priority booking for delivery slots for the elderly and vulnerable saying that they will be using data etc that they and John Lewis hold about their customers.

I have both a Waitrose account and also a John Lewis Partnership credit card. Looking at the questions asked for when applying to open a Waitrose account, DoB does not feature. But it does when applying for the credit card. Simple matter to run check between the two databases to identify those who hold a Waitrose account and are over-70 ?

Mmm...just wonder where that GDPR features?


----------



## steve1001

My mum is 85 and diabetic. She is in a Warden controlled home and isolated, and cannot walk outside. The earlist home delivery slot they could do for her was 3rd April, and that was two weeks ago!


----------



## Jonathan S

Guys.....you need to look at what has happened in Italy and Spain, It could be London next.
I'm in Spain and this is serious!!....

https://www.facebook.com/1095297518/pos ... 6&d=w&vh=i

I have chequed this with friends from Madrid and its for real!

I'm in Andalucia where its not so bad. A good friend local to me managed to get his inlaws out of Madrid before It got bad....they are in there 80s with health problems so high risk and I suppose lucky there daughter had left Madrid.

Generally the hospitals here in Spain are very well equipped and the service is good, I would say from my personal experience better then the uk......now to give you some perspective of what could happen in the uk.....a friend here has a sister in London that is a community nurse and she had run out of hand sanitizer and masks so cannot do her job safely.....her cousin is a Doctor in Suffolk and they don't have enough protective equipment either.....doesn't take much imagination to see what could happen if you don't get your act together.

Don't wait for your politicians to tell you what to do! 


I had to close my company down 2 weeks ago.
As of Monday we are on complete lock down so only emergence and essential workers allowed to work....

On the bright side....Me and my family live off grid in the mountains 30km south of Marbella.....Spring in the mountains is beautiful! 

Sent from my SM-J530F using Tapatalk


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Some posters are suggesting that deaths recorded as CV would anyway mostly have happened, and that the overall impact is a small increase on the level of death that would have been expected.

This is a reasonable proposition, but does not align with observation. Around the world demand for ITU beds and equipment has increased and health services are swamped by demand several times available capacity. This has not yet hit UK, but is likely to so within days. Hospital beds are sometimes at a premium and A&E are unable to meet targets - but the current crisis is quite different in scale.

The total death toll from CV is being modelled by some at very low levels (doesn't pass my plausibility test!). Complete lockdown is not possible due to essential workers - NHS, food distribution, power, police, military etc. 

Assumptions need to be made about the lag between infection and death noting that many will self treat mild symptoms at home and never make the formal statistics - eg:

- infection to symptoms appearing - 2-5 days
- symptoms to possible hospital admission - 2-5 days
- time spent in hospital before transfer to ITU - 2-5 days
- time in ITU before either death or discharge - 5-10 days

I assume data is being refined for this - but based on the above sequence the likely lag is 12 - 20 days - possibly now a little less as self isolation, shop and restaurant closures etc began around 5 days ago.

If deaths are doubling every 3 days (approx) the daily death rate will increase by 2 to the power of about 4 or5 - about 30 times the current level . The number of deaths reported today was 260!

In principle herd immunity should kick in when around 60% of the population are immune, either though infection or vaccine (a year away?). Suppressing infection in this way may reduce the immediate load on the NHS, but makes it likely that some level of restriction will be in place for the next year.


----------



## GrahamF

steve1001":2ruwh5yi said:


> Good day Gentleman.
> 
> My sister and her husband have just arrived back, on a plane, from Australia.
> They entered the UK via Heathrow.
> They were not tested for temperature or Covid, or looked at by anyone.
> They were not quarantined.
> They were told to go home and stay at home.
> Of course, after coming back from 5 weeks in Australia they had no food. My sister joined the 25 minute queue that snaked around the car parks at the supermarket, shopped, and got food.
> 
> The authorities don't seem to be treating this as seriously as they have lead me to beleve. I mean, fresh off the plane and they were not tested! I must be missing something.



Seems like standard practice, exactly the same happened with us on Tuesday, arriving back at Manchester from 2 months in Portugal. Only difference was we saw no-one except passport officer, everyone else was in hiding so were not told to isolate.


----------



## steve1001

And now I have just read on the Gov.uk website regarding 'Guidance for mass gatherings' 

I quote "In line with the social distancing guidance it is advised that large gatherings should not take place. While the risks of transmitting the disease at mass gatherings are relatively low, these steps will also allow emergency services that would have been deployed for these events to be prioritised in alleviating pressure on public services."

*** The risks of transmitting the disease at mass gatherings are relatively low *** 

Well, that just does not make sense to me at all! 

Steve


----------



## Jake

That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Jake":2ucb6oe3 said:


> That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3



Ever so slightly political article, I thought - someone seems peeved. Thy all have their own bailiwicks to defend and promote. Probably some attempt to wrestle power back from the politicians (not necessarily a bad thing).

Btw, I wasn't trying to add any spin - just trying to get my head around all the facts, alleged facts, spin, hyperbole etc. I have come around to your way of thinking, if it's any help - without the shutdown, more people would die, and unnecessarily at that.

Let's see if the cost is worth the price: "the operation was a success, but the patient died", could be in our economic future.


----------



## transatlantic

Just going to leave this here 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":3qi98cn3 said:


> Jake":3qi98cn3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ever so slightly political article, I thought - someone seems peeved. Thy all have their own bailiwicks to defend and promote. Probably some attempt to wrestle power back from the politicians (not necessarily a bad thing).
> 
> Btw, I wasn't trying to add any spin - just trying to get my head around all the facts, alleged facts, spin, hyperbole etc. I have come around to your way of thinking, if it's any help - without the shutdown, more people would die, and unnecessarily at that.
> 
> Let's see if the cost is worth the price: "the operation was a success, but the patient died", could be in our economic future.
Click to expand...

I think that the jury will be out until the whole thing has died down. Suppose the Swedish approach turns out to be relatively successful? Can it be compared to the UK because Sweden doesn't have a seriously massive city like London?

I've also started wondering that given that many people don't display symptoms or have mild symptoms that would not have them rushing to a doctor, if this virus has been kicking around for longer than we think i.e. did it get here from China earlier than we currently believe to be the case? That would imply the possibility of significant numbers of cases having gone unreported for quite a while as nobody saw them for what they were.


----------



## Just4Fun

RogerS":2p5w2k6x said:


> @Just4Fun
> 
> Out of curiosity, as a mathematician, can you understand all those formulae that the cosmological physicists use ? Dark matter and all that ? Seriously impresses if you do !


First, I know nothing of cosmological physicists or the formulae they use.
Second, there is a huge difference between being able to read a formula and understanding the concept it represents. Unfortunately.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

transatlantic":r1vua25q said:


> Just going to leave this here
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A



Bulletproof!

This may make you all giggle:


> In October of last year, the Global Health Security Index was released and it assessed levels of global health security across 195 countries. It specifically analyzed levels of preparation by focusing on whether countries have the proper tools in place to deal with serious disease outbreaks. Countries were scored on a scale of 0 to 100 where 100 is the highest level of preparedness.
> 
> The United States was named as the country with the strongest measures in place and it came first with 83.5 out of 100. The United Kingdom came second with 77.9 followed by the Netherlands with 75.6. China, which has initiated a series of lockdowns in response to the outbreak, comes 51st with a score of 48.2.


https://www.statista.com/chart/20629/ability-to-respond-to-an-epidemic-or-pandemic/


----------



## D_W

transatlantic":1ssdu150 said:


> Just going to leave this here
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A



That guy's a quack. Sold jeep parts and then went out of business or something and set up a youtube channel. Hack is maybe more important than quack. 

People whine about the healthcare in the US and lampoon about the results so far with the coronavirus (why can't we just make it go away), but our behavior here is like spain or italy - nobody wanted to isolate at first except the folks protected. The news articles focused on garbage like "we won't have enough free beds and we can't just set up hospitals like italy", but suddenly, temporary hospitals are being set up by the national guard in arenas and vacant spaces - all over the place. The prepper nut thing is a youtube video fantasy, though - just like the goofy "silky faster than a chainsaw" $500 hand saw garbage. It's like alternate reality. 

The dweeb on this channel toots on and on about being self sufficient and relies on people sending him money or clicking on videos to make a "homestead" work. He's a jerk.


----------



## Nelsun

transatlantic":3fk4h4qx said:


> Just going to leave this here
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A


Oh my. I happened across this guy when looking at sharpening larger blades (axes etc.) and concluded he's not someone I'd get along with; overly opinionated but hypocritical too. As to the content of the video... yikes. I did see sales of ammunition rocket when Covid-19 started being a thing over there. This kind of video is just fodder for those folk. Thankfully, not all Americans are the same, but they won't be around when the dodo goes down and we'll be left with heavily armed survivalists. Smug ones at that!


----------



## Rorschach

transatlantic":pd0f53so said:


> Just going to leave this here
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A



Oh man people like that really make me laugh, especially WS, he is "that guy" at the pub, the one no-one likes but you have to put up because otherwise they make your life miserable. I feel sorry for his family.
Preppers like him seem to think that life is a like an episode of the A-Team, you get warning that something is going down, you have days to prepare and the bad guys don't attack until you tell them you are ready. 
The reality is if his "homestead" was attacked the first he would know about it would already be too late and he would be dead or close to it. Raiders don't email and wait for an RSVP.

When I was younger I dated a girl from South Africa, she grew up in an armed compound, properly defended 24/7. They were attacked more than once, no warning, no idea it was happening until it started and even with professional security they only just managed to fend them off sometimes. Scary stuff. WS doesn't stand a chance in his wooden framed house in the middle of a field with just a teenager to help him.


----------



## FatmanG

ive watched him for ages hes a stooge im sure of it. I used to find him entertaining until i watched his part 1 (penultimate) offering when he started on Europeans and claimed that U.S.A was forever bailing our chestnuts out i think he phrased it. Apparently hes a successful multi millionaire multi talented highly intelligent 21t century man. He can afford anything he puts out content daily yet makes a living, answers 800 YT comments and chops down 50 trees mills them and builds chippendale quality furniture all in 1 day  
1.4m people follow him on YT thats a seriously scary thought


----------



## Stanleymonkey

transatlantic":1odrn457 said:


> Just going to leave this here
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_gE0ULxj1A



Wow! Will he wear all that heavy stuff when he is sick in hospital?


----------



## Trevanion

I've watched WS for years on and off, he's said himself a few times if he isn't on the extreme side of things and isn't a little bit controversial he simply doesn't get any views which I can see where he's coming from.

He's put out some good stuff over the years, I do think some of it does need to be taken with a pinch of salt sometimes though and I think sometimes he really is just being satirical.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Jake":3u5i10ea said:


> That radical anti-science organ the Lancet doesn't seem like it agrees that an "official" "absence of divergence of views" is a thing.
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3



Interesting. I learned a new word 'nosocomial'. Anecdotal evidence from a friend whose wife is a physician at a local hospital fully backs up the assertions aired by this article. If you haven't got c19 when you go into hospital there's a huge likelihood you'll catch it there anyway.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Here's a paragraph written by a doctor in an article in the Daily Telegraph:

_Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society._

I don't think that there is anything controversial or novel in the ideas expressed in that. It does however bring the debate about the better strategies to a point: the UK's current approach depends entirely on the development of vaccines etc. before the virus reappears. 

If we go through the same thing again (although presumably for a shorter time as implementation will be quicker), will we regard the current strategy as having failed? If, on the other hand, we had herd immunity a reemergence would of course be very short lived indeed.

As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.

What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.


----------



## RogerS

Andy Kev.":ipzxkbs2 said:


> .....
> As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.



I can't speak for what's happening in Germany but here in the UK, hospitals are overwhelmed. And that's with lockdown. Had we stayed with the 'herd immunity' approach then I dread to think just how bad it would have been. You're right though...there is no simple exit strategy from lockdown unless a vaccine becomes available and/or a test for antibodies as there has been some suggestion that a lot of us were infected but just didn't know it since our own immune system fought the virus off. 



Andy Kev.":ipzxkbs2 said:


> .
> What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.



Agreed although, as we're not living in a police state, the second suggestion would be difficult to implement. Especially with 'helpful' organisations like BigBrotherWatch banging on and on. You only need to look at the BS they've pumped out here. They are clearly the experts in epidemiology and pandemics. After all, what do WHO know compared to BBW?


----------



## Rorschach

Depends on how soon the restrictions are lifted. If indeed the current lockdown is simply to slow the spread then once levels have dropped a bit we can lift restrictions, let the virus spread again and continue the march toward herd immunity.

Of course one of the good things about this lockdown is that it is forcing everyone to think about hygiene and disease spread. When restrictions are lifted people will act more carefully than before, naturally slowing the spread. 

According to the epidemiologists I have heard the disease will spread far faster than any vaccine will be produced so we might as well all get it. The proposed plans all centre on how deadly the doctor in question thinks it is.


----------



## Rorschach

RogerS":riigocor said:


> I can't speak for what's happening in Germany but here in the UK, hospitals are overwhelmed. And that's with lockdown.



Where is your evidence for that? Or are you going on social media hearsay?


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":cv7dwv7v said:


> RogerS":cv7dwv7v said:
> 
> 
> 
> I can't speak for what's happening in Germany but here in the UK, hospitals are overwhelmed. And that's with lockdown.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Where is your evidence for that? Or are you going on social media hearsay?
Click to expand...


Speaking to friends and relatives in the frontline in hospitals. I also have a copy of the 'clinical guidelines' covering Covid-19 patients in hospital (and no, I'm not going to publish it). It makes very sombre reading...let's leave it at that.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":2hw9iksm said:


> ....The proposed plans all centre on how deadly the doctor in question thinks it is.



It is. Anyone who says otherwise is short of a few braincells IMO. 

'Deadly' in both the context of (a) bringing forward the death of someone with co-morbidities and (b) killing those who did not have co-morbidities. 

'Deadly' because of the sheer number of those in the 20% who require hospital treatment. 

'Deadly' because of the extra deaths happening unrelated to Covid-19, because the hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients, and so these other people can't get the treatment that they need.


----------



## Rorschach

Ok their hospital might be bad but it certainly does not seem to be the case everywhere, London hospital maybe? 
Of course you have to take what staff say with a pinch of salt. I have never yet heard a member of NHS staff say "everything's ok really", they always say "we are 5 minutes from disaster".
Seems to be a personality trait within those who join the emergency services, they see everything as a disaster waiting to happen. I have family and friends in/were in Police, Ambulance, Hospitals and Fire Brigade as well as a few in the civilian side of those services. Those serving are always moaning about how awful stuff is (previous to C19), whereas the civilian staff can't understand what they are talking about even though they are working right there with them. I am not sure if it comes naturally to them, same thing that makes them want to do that job, or whether it is ingrained by those further up to help with their funding requests.
The worst was always the fire service, they were always complaining about everything. A family member was an engineer working on their engines based in a large station. He said they complained bitterly all the time about how underpaid and overworked they were, but they all had side jobs and plenty of time off, some even running a whole business while working. He could never tell if they genuinely thought they had it tough or if they were all in on this facade to get sympathy and maintain good wages. 

Sorry slightly off topic there. Anyway, our hospital certainly isn't overwhelmed, they are moderately busy from what we have been told, but a family member is going in for an operation (quite major) next week and went in for pre-surgery scans and tests a few days ago.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Rorschach":3oo3zg4i said:


> Ok their hospital might be bad but it certainly does not seem to be the case everywhere, London hospital maybe?
> Of course you have to take what staff say with a pinch of salt. I have never yet heard a member of NHS staff say "everything's ok really", they always say "we are 5 minutes from disaster".
> Seems to be a personality trait within those who join the emergency services, they see everything as a disaster waiting to happen. I have family and friends in/were in Police, Ambulance, Hospitals and Fire Brigade as well as a few in the civilian side of those services. Those serving are always moaning about how awful stuff is (previous to C19), whereas the civilian staff can't understand what they are talking about even though they are working right there with them. I am not sure if it comes naturally to them, same thing that makes them want to do that job, or whether it is ingrained by those further up to help with their funding requests.
> The worst was always the fire service, they were always complaining about everything. A family member was an engineer working on their engines based in a large station. He said they complained bitterly all the time about how underpaid and overworked they were, but they all had side jobs and plenty of time off, some even running a whole business while working. He could never tell if they genuinely thought they had it tough or if they were all in on this facade to get sympathy and maintain good wages.
> 
> Sorry slightly off topic there. Anyway, our hospital certainly isn't overwhelmed, they are moderately busy from what we have been told, but a family member is going in for an operation (quite major) next week and went in for pre-surgery scans and tests a few days ago.


To stay with you slightly off topic, I remember when I was in the Army talking to people who had been involved in providing cover during a strike by both ambulancemen and firemen in (I think) the 80s. The Army got the task and did the obvious thing which was to set up an ops room to coordinate both activities for the obvious reason that where you need the one, you often need the other. It worked efficiently and well and showed up the union led insistence for each of those services to have their own ops rooms to be nothing more than an attempt to preserve out of date practices.

In the end it turned out that the Army's responses had been measurably far more efficient than the normal set up. However, mention of that was effectively banned as the politicians decreed that they had to tread gently with the unions once the strikes were over. I do wonder how much of the whingeing is union led. I also wonder if they ever switched to joint ops rooms. It would save money and improve efficiency.


----------



## MikeG.

We have a family friend who works in a local hospital, and she says they are "eerily quiet". Having cleared the hospital of absolutely everyone they can, and having stopped all elective/ routine cases and outpatients appointments, she says she has never seen the hospital so quiet.


----------



## Rorschach

Andy Kev.":xedu5xhu said:


> To stay with you slightly off topic, I remember when I was in the Army talking to people who had been involved in providing cover during a strike by both ambulancemen and firemen in (I think) the 80s. The Army got the task and did the obvious thing which was to set up an ops room to coordinate both activities for the obvious reason that where you need the one, you often need the other. It worked efficiently and well and showed up the union led insistence for each of those services to have their own ops rooms to be nothing more than an attempt to preserve out of date practices.
> 
> In the end it turned out that the Army's responses had been measurably far more efficient than the normal set up. However, mention of that was effectively banned as the politicians decreed that they had to tread gently with the unions once the strikes were over. I do wonder how much of the whingeing is union led. I also wonder if they ever switched to joint ops rooms. It would save money and improve efficiency.



Now that's interesting, my father was involved in that, it would be primarily '77 but also '78 and '79. I remember him saying they were very pleased with the service they managed to maintain despite having vastly inferior equipment in the form of Green Goddesses etc. Shame I can't ask him for more details now but I know he maintained a disdain for a lot of the emergency services except ambulance drivers, said they had less of an ego than the rest :lol: . 
Police were the worst of course, and getting even worse today.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Rorschach":3w2blund said:


> Police were the worst of course, and getting even worse today.


[/quote]

My son is a Police Officer - he came off a ten hour shift at 6 this morning having had one twenty minute break and having spent most of it dealing with the sudden death of a teenage girl. I'll pass on your supportive comments Rorschach.


----------



## Droogs

I remember doing "The job" when the firemen were on strike in the early 2000's and the cheeky beggers even came round the married quarters looking for signatures for petitions to up their wages. I soon pointed out where they could go and put their petition. Their recruits were earning 7 grand a year more than an army one and in some cases more than a lance corporal. They were refusing to let us cross their picket lines to use the modern kit so we had to use the old Green Goddess along with its antiquated rubbish. He was claiming their job was dangerous and they had people die in service, That was what flipped my switch actually and I soon put him straight. Have no time for them at all now.


----------



## RogerS

Rorschach":tz6arn4q said:


> Ok their hospital might be bad but it certainly does not seem to be the case everywhere, London hospital maybe?
> Of course you have to take what staff say with a pinch of salt. I have never yet heard a member of NHS staff say "everything's ok really", they always say "we are 5 minutes from disaster".
> Seems to be a personality trait within those who join the emergency services, they see everything as a disaster waiting to happen. I have family and friends in/were in Police, Ambulance, Hospitals and Fire Brigade as well as a few in the civilian side of those services. Those serving are always moaning about how awful stuff is (previous to C19), whereas the civilian staff can't understand what they are talking about even though they are working right there with them. I am not sure if it comes naturally to them, same thing that makes them want to do that job, or whether it is ingrained by those further up to help with their funding requests.
> The worst was always the fire service, they were always complaining about everything. A family member was an engineer working on their engines based in a large station. He said they complained bitterly all the time about how underpaid and overworked they were, but they all had side jobs and plenty of time off, some even running a whole business while working. He could never tell if they genuinely thought they had it tough or if they were all in on this facade to get sympathy and maintain good wages.
> 
> Sorry slightly off topic there. Anyway, our hospital certainly isn't overwhelmed, they are moderately busy from what we have been told, but a family member is going in for an operation (quite major) next week and went in for pre-surgery scans and tests a few days ago.



Just because the lockdown has put your personal business in difficulties, you are determined to ignore and belittle any comment that does not fit your very narrow-minded and IMO bigoted perspective.

Simple answer to that - stick you on Ignore.


----------



## MikeK

Rorschach":iyt3yy1u said:


> Police were the worst of course, and getting even worse today.



If someone had asked me yesterday if I could think any less of you because of the rubbish that you spew out, I would have said "no, it's not possible." However, this morning I read this drivel from you and have to adjust my lower level of disdain. Plunk...you are on ignore, but I doubt you will be bothered.

I was a deputy sheriff in Virginia for seven years working in the patrol division. I've seen my share of the horrors that people can do to each other, or to themselves. I don't have to rely on hearsay from others, as you seem to do, to understand what happens in the world. However, those memories pale in comparison to what I've experienced in the past 22 years in this hemisphere before I retired.


----------



## Jake

Rorschach":38t2sjp9 said:


> Ok their hospital might be bad but it certainly does not seem to be the case everywhere, London hospital maybe? [snip tendentious aspertions about emergency services personnel]



London is ahead, but my sister is an ex ICU/HDU nurse who for the last decade or so has been doing colonoscopy instead. She's been called up as of today to work in a new ICU ward created for COVID-19 at her (South Yorkshire) hospital.

So this is very anecdotal, but that hospital has reached its standard capacity and is into surge capacity.


----------



## FatmanG

i honestly am shocked with some of the posts on this thread. the criticism of everyone from the govt to the emergency services from a certain few is beyond a joke take a good look at what youve written and agree that you make me sick.
i for one appreciate every single dr nurse, ambulance, police, firemen/women. to me your brave heroes and i thank you on behalf of myself and my family. =D> =D>


----------



## Chris152

Does anyone have the web address to donate money to Meals for the NHS, as seen this morning on BBC Breakfast? They didn't seem to advertise it.


----------



## Rorschach

Hmmm, I guess they won't see this but my comments about the Police were actually the words of my father.

FWIW though I happen to agree, the sort of people they recruit today are in general terrible, just an excuse to bully (not all, some maintain the old school public service aspirations including a family member who is a good egg).

Do some research, look into the Harry Miller case as a recent example of "Police" work. Also check out the Crimebodge youtube channel and you will see what the Police are becoming.


----------



## Droogs

FatmanG, I feel you have missed the point of my trirade. They (firefighters) were earning almost a 1/3 more than some of the lads I was in command of, who were having to do the firefighters jobs on less money with equipment from the 1940s and without the ability to moan about it or even ask let alone withdrawn their labour for more money. Those young lads were the heroes not the money grabbing pineapples on strike. Not got a problem with any of the medical people they are heroes, far more than anyone else in the land as far as I am concerned and after this they should be given a flaming masshooosif pay raise. infact as far as I am concerned they should be getting the wages of bankers who should get a nurses wage instead


----------



## sploo

Jake":u6u7ljde said:


> Rorschach":u6u7ljde said:
> 
> 
> 
> Ok their hospital might be bad but it certainly does not seem to be the case everywhere, London hospital maybe? [snip tendentious aspertions about emergency services personnel]
> 
> 
> 
> 
> London is ahead, but my sister is an ex ICU/HDU nurse who for the last decade or so has been doing colonoscopy instead. She's been called up as of today to work in a new ICU ward created for COVID-19 at her (South Yorkshire) hospital.
> 
> So this is very anecdotal, but that hospital has reached its standard capacity and is into surge capacity.
Click to expand...

My other half is West Yorks, but largely confirming the info on this thread. Her colleagues in Italy are basically dealing with the apocalypse, London is heavily loaded, and up north it's not quite that grim yet but most routine work has been shelved, and they're ramping up for COVID-19 support.

Roger's point about the clinical guidelines is sobering too; I can confirm that the info my wife's been receiving is going to mean the frontline doctors will be having to make some pretty awful decisions in the coming weeks (as they already are in the areas most affected).


----------



## Rorschach

Does anyone have the figures for a Nurses wage? I can't work out the details from the nurses.co.uk website as it deals with bands etc. 
They don't look too bad to me. Junior doctors have a tough time of it though, I feel sorry for them, not so much the pay as the hours and being forced to move around etc, something definitely needs to change there. Adam Kay's book a rather sobering read on that subject.


----------



## Rorschach

sploo":ki4q2wxo said:


> My other half is West Yorks, but largely confirming the info on this thread. Her colleagues in Italy are basically dealing with the apocalypse, London is heavily loaded, and up north it's not quite that grim yet but most routine work has been shelved, and they're ramping up for COVID-19 support.
> 
> Roger's point about the clinical guidelines is sobering too; I can confirm that the info my wife's been receiving is going to mean the frontline doctors will be having to make some pretty awful decisions in the coming weeks (as they already are in the areas most affected).



Looks like we are a bit behind here then. Thanks for that info.


----------



## Deejay

Morning Droogs

* Their recruits were earning 7 grand a year more than an army one and in some cases more than a lance corporal. *

Something wrong there I think Droogs.

Firefighters then received an average of £71.10 for a basic 48-hour week, amounting to £3,700 a year.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/141293 ... n-1977.htm

(Paragraph four)

Cheers

Dave


----------



## sploo

Droogs":27t0y8s3 said:


> I remember doing "The job" when the firemen were on strike in the early 2000's and the cheeky beggers even came round the married quarters looking for signatures for petitions to up their wages. I soon pointed out where they could go and put their petition. Their recruits were earning 7 grand a year more than an army one and in some cases more than a lance corporal. They were refusing to let us cross their picket lines to use the modern kit so we had to use the old Green Goddess along with its antiquated rubbish. He was claiming their job was dangerous and they had people die in service, That was what flipped my switch actually and I soon put him straight. Have no time for them at all now.


I'm in two minds about that. My (relatively) limited experience of military guys is that they're a pretty special breed; having the fortitude to put up with just about any conditions without complaint. But I guess that's kinda critical if you're holed up in a field, cold and exhausted, and someone's shooting at you.

But the rest of us aren't like that. Maybe if everyone had the same level of tolerance for adversity then we could man all our services with people who would do anything, without complaint, for whatever they were paid. Positive in some ways, but then that might mean they'd be taken advantage of (in terms of poor pay and conditions).

I guess the ideal solution would be that everyone were paid a decent wage for what they do (a factor of skill + difficulty + conditions/danger), but I accept that's not the real world.


----------



## FatmanG

Droogs":2ins6osq said:


> FatmanG, I feel you have missed the point of my trirade. They (firefighters) were earning almost a 1/3 more than some of the lads I was in command of, who were having to do the firefighters jobs on less money with equipment from the 1940s and without the ability to moan about it or even ask let alone withdrawn their labour for more money. Those young lads were the heroes not the money grabbing pineapples on strike. Not got a problem with any of the medical people they are heroes, far more than anyone else in the land as far as I am concerned and after this they should be given a flaming masshooosif pay raise. infact as far as I am concerned they should be getting the wages of bankers who should get a nurses wage instead



i wasnt particularly meaning you Droogs but i thank you for the quoted post. I agree wholeheartedly.
All i will say to you snd anyone else imo now is not the time to be criticising the emergency services from any era. Imgine one who has just done a double shift from hell and sits down with a coffee to look at this site to relax and comes acros some of the shieeeeeezen written on here. IMHO at this time they all need our support they are in the front line of a disease that is rampant and the bravery they are showing is so inspiring. I may be biased towards our NHS as they have done so much for me. They are genuinely heroes.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":2cdkzym6 said:


> sploo":2cdkzym6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> My other half is West Yorks, but largely confirming the info on this thread. Her colleagues in Italy are basically dealing with the apocalypse, London is heavily loaded, and up north it's not quite that grim yet but most routine work has been shelved, and they're ramping up for COVID-19 support.
> 
> Roger's point about the clinical guidelines is sobering too; I can confirm that the info my wife's been receiving is going to mean the frontline doctors will be having to make some pretty awful decisions in the coming weeks (as they already are in the areas most affected).
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Looks like we are a bit behind here then. Thanks for that info.
Click to expand...

We are. A good thing in many ways, but also quite sobering as we can see what's coming. Or at least, hope _isn't_ going to come.

There is no simple solution here unfortunately, and I guess the best we can do at the moment is keep up the social isolation in the hope that new cases can be kept down to a manageable rate.


----------



## Droogs

The firefighters wanted a basic pay of £30K per year in 2002 as part of their settlement package. At that time a private soldier (Infanteer) was earning £12K, a LCpl in a technical trade band 3 was on £18K. I as a Tech Sgt with 5 years seniority in rank was on £28k


----------



## Rorschach

FatmanG":1kjjkmih said:


> I may be biased towards our NHS as they have done so much for me. They are genuinely heroes.



Genuine question here, why do you think they are heroes for doing a job they chose to do?
Do you class doctors and nurses in countries without an NHS equivalent heroes too? Is your dentist a hero if you pay privately?
NHS seems to be treated as a bit of a religious cult here. The doctors and nurses do a great job of course but they are paid to do it and they did choose to become medics, same as a plumber or electrician, are they heroes as well?


----------



## MusicMan

Andy Kev.":sgelifxr said:


> Here's a paragraph written by a doctor in an article in the Daily Telegraph:
> 
> _Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society._
> 
> I don't think that there is anything controversial or novel in the ideas expressed in that. It does however bring the debate about the better strategies to a point: the UK's current approach depends entirely on the development of vaccines etc. before the virus reappears.
> 
> If we go through the same thing again (although presumably for a shorter time as implementation will be quicker), will we regard the current strategy as having failed? If, on the other hand, we had herd immunity a reemergence would of course be very short lived indeed.
> 
> As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.
> 
> What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.



The quote from a doctor in the DT that you cite is, I'm afraid, another example of amateur epidemiology. I don't doubt his/her front line skill, experience and stress, and am totally grateful for it. But it's a classic 'straw man' argument: assume your opponents' position then argue against it. The assumption here is that the lockdown will end suddenly, in which case he or she would be right. But that is not the policy. We already heard the deputy CMO say that some sort of restrictions will probably go on for at least six months. She doesn't say what or how as nobody knows that yet. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, a vast epidemiological study is now commencing, in which _all_ the scientists in the country with applicable modelling or organisational skills are being coordinated by the Royal Society into a project aimed at a robust analysis of the so-called exit options. It is probably the case that most of us will be exposed to the virus sometime in the couple of years. So the sensible option is to try to defer its spread in order to (a) avoid a disastrous spike that will overwhelm the NHS within a couple of weeks, (b) allow the NHS to cope throughout the next 12 - 18 months before a vaccine is available, (c) defer the most serious cases (the most vulnerable people) until better understanding, treatment, equipment and capacity is available. As one of those people (almost 80, with several 'underlying conditions', though not in the worst 1.5 million) I'd much rather catch it then than now.

It seems pretty certain that herd immunity is the only _long term _solution, as indeed it is for 'old' viruses like flu. Achieving this includes not only infection and recovery but, critically, vaccination. The question is, how to get there without breaking the NHS, which would lead to much greater loss of life.

It isn't yet at all clear what the exit strategy should be and all the options that anyone can think of are being examined. And the inputs will change dynamically as new drugs and therapies are tested. Your suggestion of blocking any entry from countries that have a resurgence will surely be one of the actions fed into the modelling, as will the enormous data sets now becoming available from other countries (with different demographics). And yes, some of the work packages will be critically to review all the others and to examine the assumptions.


----------



## Droogs

As far as I am concerned any "medico" is a hero. Yes they choose to enter a profession where they put themselves in harms way for the benefit of other people. but as we all know it aint for the the money. I admire and respect someone who is willing to put the good of all above their own personal wellbeing on an ongoing basis despite the drawbacks of that job. 
As an aside the plumber who came and fitted my toilet last week was a hero to me, well he was until i got the email with the bill :shock: :lol:


----------



## Rorschach

Sensible stuff there MusicMan, I hope the plan works.


----------



## Rorschach

Droogs":6wiovvri said:


> As far as I am concerned any "medico" is a hero. Yes they choose to enter a profession where they put themselves in harms way for the benefit of other people. but as we all know it aint for the the money. I admire and respect someone who is willing to put the good of all above their own personal wellbeing on an ongoing basis despite the drawbacks of that job.
> As an aside the plumber who came and fitted my toilet last week was a hero to me, well he was until i got the email with the bill :shock: :lol:



That's fair enough, I don't think they put themselves in harms way all that much though, not compared to other jobs such as Military for instance.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Rorschach":1qs5zsoq said:


> Droogs":1qs5zsoq said:
> 
> 
> 
> As far as I am concerned any "medico" is a hero. Yes they choose to enter a profession where they put themselves in harms way for the benefit of other people. but as we all know it aint for the the money. I admire and respect someone who is willing to put the good of all above their own personal wellbeing on an ongoing basis despite the drawbacks of that job.
> As an aside the plumber who came and fitted my toilet last week was a hero to me, well he was until i got the email with the bill :shock: :lol:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's fair enough, I don't think they put themselves in harms way all that much though, not compared to other jobs such as Military for instance.
Click to expand...


Are you deliberately trying to be offensive?


----------



## Droogs

no mate. Their job is far more fraught with danger than being a squaddie unless you're in a Russian penal mine clearance brigade


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":1hafmuwj said:


> FatmanG":1hafmuwj said:
> 
> 
> 
> I may be biased towards our NHS as they have done so much for me. They are genuinely heroes.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Genuine question here, why do you think they are heroes for doing a job they chose to do?
> Do you class doctors and nurses in countries without an NHS equivalent heroes too? Is your dentist a hero if you pay privately?
> NHS seems to be treated as a bit of a religious cult here. The doctors and nurses do a great job of course but they are paid to do it and they did choose to become medics, same as a plumber or electrician, are they heroes as well?
Click to expand...

I suspect you might trigger a few negative responses with that question, but it is a fair one.

I understand that city traders work in an extremely stressful and difficult environment, but they (can) earn significant sums of money, and aren't specifically doing a job that helps others. Certainly not seen as heroes.

In the US, doctors earn very well, but are definitely helping others. The high cost of medical care for the patient means you're very much "paying for it", so attitude towards the doctors is going to be a bit more ambivalent. I'm aware there's a somewhat similar attitude in Germany - at least in Berlin (I'm less sure about other regions).

In the UK, we don't pay (at point of use) for the NHS, so certainly there's a factor in the value of the service being perceived more positively. You'd be less happy if the paramedic that turned up emptied your wallet at the same time.

I would say that, in my experience of my wife's role (and the many colleagues I've known over the years) they do a number of hours, in difficult conditions, that I certainly wouldn't want to do. Even ignoring the number of hours, the current doctor's salaries are not exactly what I'd call high for the work they're doing and the decisions they have to make. Whilst my other half is very much against NHS privatisation, she does believe she'd earn significantly more if it all got sold off and everything because private.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":hnrs5opf said:


> Droogs":hnrs5opf said:
> 
> 
> 
> As far as I am concerned any "medico" is a hero. Yes they choose to enter a profession where they put themselves in harms way for the benefit of other people. but as we all know it aint for the the money. I admire and respect someone who is willing to put the good of all above their own personal wellbeing on an ongoing basis despite the drawbacks of that job.
> As an aside the plumber who came and fitted my toilet last week was a hero to me, well he was until i got the email with the bill :shock: :lol:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's fair enough, I don't think they put themselves in harms way all that much though, not compared to other jobs such as Military for instance.
Click to expand...

For obvious reasons, I can't publicly share some of the stuff my wife's mentioned over the years, but I can certainly tell you that many doctors, nurses, and paramedics, come into great risk of harm far too often (be that physical threat, or exposure to serious infections).


----------



## Andy Kev.

sploo":t0kkjwlb said:


> Droogs":t0kkjwlb said:
> 
> 
> 
> I remember doing "The job" when the firemen were on strike in the early 2000's and the cheeky beggers even came round the married quarters looking for signatures for petitions to up their wages. I soon pointed out where they could go and put their petition. Their recruits were earning 7 grand a year more than an army one and in some cases more than a lance corporal. They were refusing to let us cross their picket lines to use the modern kit so we had to use the old Green Goddess along with its antiquated rubbish. He was claiming their job was dangerous and they had people die in service, That was what flipped my switch actually and I soon put him straight. Have no time for them at all now.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm in two minds about that. My (relatively) limited experience of military guys is that they're a pretty special breed; having the fortitude to put up with just about any conditions without complaint. But I guess that's kinda critical if you're holed up in a field, cold and exhausted, and someone's shooting at you.
> 
> But the rest of us aren't like that. Maybe if everyone had the same level of tolerance for adversity then we could man all our services with people who would do anything, without complaint, for whatever they were paid. Positive in some ways, but then that might mean they'd be taken advantage of (in terms of poor pay and conditions).
> 
> I guess the ideal solution would be that everyone were paid a decent wage for what they do (a factor of skill + difficulty + conditions/danger), but I accept that's not the real world.
Click to expand...

I think it turns on the fact that the Armed Forces are self-selecting, the wish to serve your country being a very big factor.

I imagine there's a fair bit of selflessness in the emergency services. For instance I've only known a few coppers but they all were really motivated by trying to stamp on the bad b**tards for the greater good of all. 

I suspect that the real problem with the emergency services is one of questionable leadership combined with unions. Senior police officers make me despair. They all seem to be very slick modern management types and I presume it is they who set an agenda which has coppers wasting their time bothering about postings on the internet as opposed to feeling collars. The big advantage which army commanders enjoy - apart from the self-selecting nature of the troops - is that the whole organisation can and even wants to keep a bit of distance from wider society and its attitudes.

My final moan, as an ex-soldier, is the devaluation of the word "hero". By definition, the fewest of us in any walk of life and that includes the armed forces, are heroes. The vast majority of us are average. So I don't accept that all members of the emergency services are heroes and to see that maintained makes me cringe a bit. (This morning I heard supermarket till operators being described as heroes.) What they are however, are people doing a valuable job which at the moment we are appreciating the full worth of. Some of them appear to be underpaid. Are they worth more than bank managers, TV presenters and professional sports types? Probably IMO. Are NHS managers and Chief Constables worth their pay packets? They probably get paid too much IMO.


----------



## MusicMan

Rorschach":351e09zh said:


> Sensible stuff there MusicMan, I hope the plan works.



Thanks. No guarantees, though.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MusicMan":1yugeq6j said:


> Andy Kev.":1yugeq6j said:
> 
> 
> 
> Here's a paragraph written by a doctor in an article in the Daily Telegraph:
> 
> _Medically, fighting an epidemic by suppressing it through draconian restrictions of liberty achieves the opposite of herd immunity. It ensures that the majority of survivors have no immunity and so are at just as much risk next time around. Of course, the advocates of this approach are banking on the development of vaccines and other therapies for the management of the next epidemic. But a usable vaccine will almost certainly not be available by the time this disease comes back for an encore. Novel treatments based on anti-malarial drugs and antibiotics will also need to be evaluated in proper clinical trials. So, we will have to do the same again next time with the attendant risks to the economy and the fabric of society._
> 
> I don't think that there is anything controversial or novel in the ideas expressed in that. It does however bring the debate about the better strategies to a point: the UK's current approach depends entirely on the development of vaccines etc. before the virus reappears.
> 
> If we go through the same thing again (although presumably for a shorter time as implementation will be quicker), will we regard the current strategy as having failed? If, on the other hand, we had herd immunity a reemergence would of course be very short lived indeed.
> 
> As I said in a previous post we won't be able to come to any sensible judgement for some time yet but as someone whose initial instinct was to go for a shutdown, I'm slowly warming to the herd immunity argument.
> 
> What I do think should happen is that when it starts again and reappears in country X, then all flights to that country should be suspended and all recent entrants from that country (irrespective of nationality) should be quarantined.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The quote from a doctor in the DT that you cite is, I'm afraid, another example of amateur epidemiology. I don't doubt his/her front line skill, experience and stress, and am totally grateful for it. But it's a classic 'straw man' argument: assume your opponents' position then argue against it. The assumption here is that the lockdown will end suddenly, in which case he or she would be right. But that is not the policy. We already heard the deputy CMO say that some sort of restrictions will probably go on for at least six months. She doesn't say what or how as nobody knows that yet. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, a vast epidemiological study is now commencing, in which _all_ the scientists in the country with applicable modelling or organisational skills are being coordinated by the Royal Society into a project aimed at a robust analysis of the so-called exit options. It is probably the case that most of us will be exposed to the virus sometime in the couple of years. So the sensible option is to try to defer its spread in order to (a) avoid a disastrous spike that will overwhelm the NHS within a couple of weeks, (b) allow the NHS to cope throughout the next 12 - 18 months before a vaccine is available, (c) defer the most serious cases (the most vulnerable people) until better understanding, treatment, equipment and capacity is available. As one of those people (almost 80, with several 'underlying conditions', though not in the worst 1.5 million) I'd much rather catch it then than now.
> 
> It seems pretty certain that herd immunity is the only _long term _solution, as indeed it is for 'old' viruses like flu. Achieving this includes not only infection and recovery but, critically, vaccination. The question is, how to get there without breaking the NHS, which would lead to much greater loss of life.
> 
> It isn't yet at all clear what the exit strategy should be and all the options that anyone can think of are being examined. And the inputs will change dynamically as new drugs and therapies are tested. Your suggestion of blocking any entry from countries that have a resurgence will surely be one of the actions fed into the modelling, as will the enormous data sets now becoming available from other countries (with different demographics). And yes, some of the work packages will be critically to review all the others and to examine the assumptions.
Click to expand...

Thanks for that view. It's fair, informed comment and particularly useful for trying to come to a balanced viewpoint.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Droogs":3ori01qc said:


> no mate. Their job is far more fraught with danger than being a squaddie unless you're in a Russian penal mine clearance brigade



My question was directed at Rorschach who clearly is. Elements of this thread are appalling.


----------



## Deejay

Droogs":393xdw0v said:


> The firefighters wanted a basic pay of £30K per year in 2002 as part of their settlement package. At that time a private soldier (Infanteer) was earning £12K, a LCpl in a technical trade band 3 was on £18K. I as a Tech Sgt with 5 years seniority in rank was on £28k



Morning Droogs 

I'm not getting involved in this side issue.

I simply pointed out the error in your earlier post. 

Cheers

Dave


----------



## Droogs

Hi Dave , I think your figures were for the 70's strike not the one in 2002


----------



## Rorschach

Droogs":yns0gvq6 said:


> no mate. Their job is far more fraught with danger than being a squaddie unless you're in a Russian penal mine clearance brigade



In what way do you think so? Aside from the current situation which I think we would all agree is not standard practise.


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":1oxaeepr said:


> I think it turns on the fact that the Armed Forces are self-selecting, the wish to serve your country being a very big factor.
> 
> I imagine there's a fair bit of selflessness in the emergency services. For instance I've only known a few coppers but they all were really motivated by trying to stamp on the bad b**tards for the greater good of all.
> 
> I suspect that the real problem with the emergency services is one of questionable leadership combined with unions. Senior police officers make me despair. They all seem to be very slick modern management types and I presume it is they who set an agenda which has coppers wasting their time bothering about postings on the internet as opposed to feeling collars. The big advantage which army commanders enjoy - apart from the self-selecting nature of the troops - is that the whole organisation can and even wants to keep a bit of distance from wider society and its attitudes.
> 
> My final moan, as an ex-soldier, is the devaluation of the word "hero". By definition, the fewest of us in any walk of life and that includes the armed forces, are heroes. The vast majority of us are average. So I don't accept that all members of the emergency services are heroes and to see that maintained makes me cringe a bit. (This morning I heard supermarket till operators being described as heroes.) What they are however, are people doing a valuable job which at the moment we are appreciating the full worth of. Some of them appear to be underpaid. Are they worth more than bank managers, TV presenters and professional sports types? Probably IMO. Are NHS managers and Chief Constables worth their pay packets? They probably get paid too much IMO.


I'd agree with the "hero" tag being greatly overused (heck, I recall it being applied to football players for a while!)

Leadership is an issue in pretty much any field; obviously there's an element of being promoted to your level of incompetence (i.e. make the useless guy a manager so he can't do damage where the "real" work is being done). Mainly though, many (maybe most?) people just want to get on with their role, and aren't interested in managing systems or people. For that reason, management is going to attract a subset of individuals, and in many fields, a degree of political savvy is going to be required (by that I mean you have to be a bit more subtle and know when to keep quiet and "play the game"). Finally, there are those fields where the managers have never been on "the shop floor"; be that the stereotype of the posh army officer boy (with no battlefield experience), or the NHS manager who's never done any front line medicine.

All that said; I would have huge respect at the moment for people operating tills in supermarkets - you're basically facing a stream of unknown (potentially Covid-carrying) people for hours at a time!


----------



## Rorschach

Andy Kev.":ij8xqjad said:


> I suspect that the real problem with the emergency services is one of questionable leadership combined with unions. Senior police officers make me despair. They all seem to be very slick modern management types and I presume it is they who set an agenda which has coppers wasting their time bothering about postings on the internet as opposed to feeling collars. The big advantage which army commanders enjoy - apart from the self-selecting nature of the troops - is that the whole organisation can and even wants to keep a bit of distance from wider society and its attitudes.
> 
> My final moan, as an ex-soldier, is the devaluation of the word "hero". By definition, the fewest of us in any walk of life and that includes the armed forces, are heroes. The vast majority of us are average. So I don't accept that all members of the emergency services are heroes and to see that maintained makes me cringe a bit. (This morning I heard supermarket till operators being described as heroes.) What they are however, are people doing a valuable job which at the moment we are appreciating the full worth of. Some of them appear to be underpaid. Are they worth more than bank managers, TV presenters and professional sports types? Probably IMO. Are NHS managers and Chief Constables worth their pay packets? They probably get paid too much IMO.



Some very sensible stuff here, probably better worded that I would put it :lol: 

I think your comment RE: Chief Constables is bang on. I suppose really my opinions on the ordinary copper are based on the fact that they seem swallow this direction with no fight back. They might start with good intentions but the culture within the force soon sours them to the general public and makes them feel superior morally.
I won't go into too much detail but not that long ago a PO in the family did exactly that, he decided that he wasn't going to let me do something because it didn't fit in with his views and the use of other Police was threatened to make me comply (the threat of flagging me on the system for harassment, a common tactic I have heard him boast about many times before).


----------



## Droogs

They turn up at work each day and walk into the unhealthiest location in civilization to care and aid those who are afflicted by not just injury or chronic conditions but at any time may be required to administer to people who could any number of infections and diseases that can kill you. they are required to work in sub optimal conditions - they are stressed, over tired and under staffed for most of the time. junior doctors work on the whole a horrendous l number of hours as a general rule due to shortages of staff . 
They are routinely required to make life or death decisions in the most stressed state of being and face unbelievably stringent repercussions if they get it wrong. Apart from the upper echelon they are not particularly well paid in comparison to most private sector trades and face regular abuse and physical harm when trying to do their jobs from the very people they are trying to save.

if you are willing to face that for at least 48 hours a week for 40 years until you retire then as far as I am concern you most definitely are a sodding hero. After all Military heroes are just guys in the wrong place at the wrong time doing what they can to keep them and their mates alive. There is a reason that the majority of VCs have been given to people saving others rather that killing others. Heroes do what they do out of love for their fellows not the love of their bank balance


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":x7204p7a said:


> Droogs":x7204p7a said:
> 
> 
> 
> no mate. Their job is far more fraught with danger than being a squaddie unless you're in a Russian penal mine clearance brigade
> 
> 
> 
> 
> In what way do you think so? Aside from the current situation which I think we would all agree is not standard practise.
Click to expand...

Drunk and aggressive patients, patients with Meningitis, trying to treat a youth with gunshot wounds where you know that members of the gang that shot him are in the hospital and wanting to finish the job - in the UK. Really.

(but Droogs put it much, much better in his post1345387.html#p1345387 post)


----------



## Irish Rover

Does Rorschach have some compromising photographs of one of the mods?
I have never seen such draconian moderating.

Shameful


----------



## Rorschach

Irish Rover":1gub1zwp said:


> Does Rorschach have some compromising photographs of one of the mods?
> I have never seen such draconian moderating.
> 
> Shameful



I am really not sure what you are on about :?


----------



## nev

Irish Rover":3mu01lg6 said:


> Does Rorschach have some compromising photographs of one of the mods?
> I have never seen such draconian moderating.
> 
> Shameful



If you , and anyone else, insist on just posting inflammatory one line comments jut to try and be clever or intentionally confrontational and argumentative they will be deleted.

If you act like a child you'll be treated like one.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Rorschach":2xpdyhp4 said:


> I suppose really my opinions on the ordinary copper are based on the fact that they seem swallow this direction with no fight back. They might start with good intentions but the culture within the force soon sours them to the general public and makes them feel superior morally.
> I won't go into too much detail but not that long ago a PO in the family did exactly that, he decided that he wasn't going to let me do something because it didn't fit in with his views and the use of other Police was threatened to make me comply (the threat of flagging me on the system for harassment, a common tactic I have heard him boast about many times before).



Please help me to understand this Rorschach. I generally feel people don't make sweeping and unjustifiable statements which may be felt offensive by others intentionally and so I must be missing something here. Without explanation I do find your comments at best irrational and at worst offensive.

My son is a Police Officer. He works long hours, is conscientious and deals with many situations that are both distressing and shocking. As I highlighted earlier he dealt with the sudden death of a teenage girl last night and came home this morning clearly upset and touched by the situation. He'll be back on duty tonight dealing with the public with good humour and courtesy.

Earlier in this thread you referenced a member of your family who is a PO and "good egg" but roll forward a few posts and this good egg is engaged in making threats that he will put you on a list to be hassled (probably engaging in what could be termed police corruption in the process) and as such all PO's end up morally superior?


----------



## Rorschach

Blackswanwood":2yegrw7l said:


> Please help me to understand this Rorschach. I generally feel people don't make sweeping and unjustifiable statements which may be felt offensive by others intentionally and so I must be missing something here. Without explanation I do find your comments at best irrational and at worst offensive.
> 
> My son is a Police Officer. He works long hours, is conscientious and deals with many situations that are both distressing and shocking. As I highlighted earlier he dealt with the sudden death of a teenage girl last night and came home this morning clearly upset and touched by the situation. He'll be back on duty tonight dealing with the public with good humour and courtesy.
> 
> Earlier in this thread you referenced a member of your family who is a PO and "good egg" but roll forward a few posts and this good egg is engaged in making threats that he will put you on a list to be hassled (probably engaging in what could be termed police corruption in the process) and as such all PO's end up morally superior?



Sounds like your son is one of the good ones, I really hope he is, they are getting few and far between unfortunately and are being corrupted by the system. Many of the ones who joined with good intentions are being coerced into bad behaviour or (almost as bad) are apologists for the bad ones and don't speak up. If he is one of "the few" then I don't mean to offend him and I wish him the best. Ask him if he has seen any corruption and/or poor policing, I'll bet he has.

Apologies for the confusion before. We have several PC's in the extended family as well as several civilian support. The "good egg" wasn't the one doing the threatening, he works hard and treats even the scum with respect, not that they deserve it but it is the way it should be done.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Rorschach":275z4rmd said:


> [Ask him if he has seen any corruption and/or poor policing, I'll bet he has.
> 
> Apologies for the confusion before. We have several PC's in the extended family as well as several civilian support. The "good egg" was the one doing the threatening, he works hard and treats even the scum with respect, not that they deserve it but it is the way it should be done.



I just asked him. No he hasn't seen any.

So, the good egg was the one doing the threatening ...

No need to respond - I've had enough of these ridiculous ramblings and will simply ignore your posts in future.


----------



## Rorschach

Blackswanwood":2njnyes2 said:


> Rorschach":2njnyes2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> [Ask him if he has seen any corruption and/or poor policing, I'll bet he has.
> 
> Apologies for the confusion before. We have several PC's in the extended family as well as several civilian support. The "good egg" was the one doing the threatening, he works hard and treats even the scum with respect, not that they deserve it but it is the way it should be done.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I just asked him. No he hasn't seen any.
> 
> So, the good egg was the one doing the threatening ...
> 
> No need to respond - I've had enough of these ridiculous ramblings and will simply ignore your posts in future.
Click to expand...


I'm surprised he said that.

Typo, *wasn't*. Now edited.


----------



## ScaredyCat

From tomorrow the ONS will be including COVID-19 deaths that happen outside hospitals. They haven't been including them thus far.


.


----------



## Irish Rover

nev":1aykakjg said:


> Irish Rover":1aykakjg said:
> 
> 
> 
> Does Rorschach have some compromising photographs of one of the mods?
> I have never seen such draconian moderating.
> 
> Shameful
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If you , and anyone else, insist on just posting inflammatory one line comments jut to try and be clever or intentionally confrontational and argumentative they will be deleted.
> 
> If you act like a child you'll be treated like one.
Click to expand...


Go and fack yourself.

Bye :lol:


----------



## Kieran62

Surely that should be "go and pineapple yourself"?


----------



## Droogs

It would appear the naughty word monitor doesn't do gaelic


----------



## Lons

Rorschach you have absolutely no idea and are being deliberately ignorant and obnoxious, :roll: You clearly are an sad individual and I hope you don't have the misfortune to need the services of those you have criticised, it's a shame people like you can't be tattooed " do not resuscitate "

I can't comment on either the police or fire service though I have friends in both professions but I do have a number of close relatives who are or have been in the NHS as nurses, doctors and a heart consultant and am very well versed in the physical danger some of them were exposed to every Friday and Saturday night from drunks and druggies while on duty at A&E. There were many physical attacks though thankfully my family were lucky enough to avoid. Add to that the constant exposure to illness and now the very real risk to their own and family lives just highlights how much rubbish there is emanating from your direction.

Nurses to become qualified have to attend university for 3 years but without the Uni holidays instead of which they have to work on placement in hospitals and NHS community services then, especially in areas outside of London are paid below national wage and in hospitals they work unsociable hours often 3 nights followed by 3 days with only a day to recover sleep patterns, sometimes split shifts as well. All of that after dealing daily with death and serious illness, My wife and daughter found dealing with distraught relatives heartbreaking, I couldn't do that.

You're a disgrace and I'm very grateful for the fact I don't know you as it spares me being ashamed that I did!


----------



## Andy Kev.

Hang on a minute, one of the great problems with the public climate in recent years is the attempt to close down dissenting voices, usually in a rude and intolerant way.

The point of a democracy is that everybody gets their say as long as they are not lying or being obscene or are advocating illegal action. As far as I can see, Rorschach is doing none of those. We have the right to disagree with him. We have the right to find his views out of order. However, the only acceptable response is to produce counter argument which shows those views to be fallacious (unless one takes the internet option to ignore).

It is currently fashionable to place the emergency services above criticism. He doesn't accept that. He's allowed to just as much as I am allowed to question conferring heroic status on all members of the emergency services.

So how about debating instead of shouting?

Lons, this isn't directed specifically at you. Your second and third paragraphs constitute argument (although I don't think that the first and fourth help in any way) but is rather an appeal to all.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Taken a strange turn here today. To my mind, the term "hero" is to be applied to rare instances of behaviour "above and beyond the call of duty". Hospital staff, military, firemen etc, all sign up intentionally, and theoretically know the deal going in. They also (with the exception of the military) have the option of walking out at any time, if they don't like it. And no mention of the poor, minimum wage security guard who actually has to deal with the idiots causing trouble.

The enforced, Facebook pressured, Sun promoted pseudo-cultural hero-worship of these professions is disturbing. Being told how to feel, in other word - enforced emotion. Smacks of 1984.

Here is an example of what I would call heroic: 
[youtube]Z5TfWvxKEzw[/youtube]


----------



## Andy Kev.

TN,

you're getting at what I was on about. If everybody is a hero for doing what their jobs routinely demand of them, what do you call somebody who does indeed go above and beyond?

I reckon that coppers and firemen routinely have bravery (by the standards of Joe Soap sitting at his computer in an office) demanded of them and with the help of their training they routinely deliver. All the emergency services have my genuine respect but I would bet that most of them would deny being heroes and that would not be done in a spirit of false modesty.

The other thing that makes me wince is the public rounds of applause. I find it corny and a bit embarrassing. However, I respect the right of those who wish to indulge and of course their motivation is sincere but personally I think it is the sort of thing best left to over-emotional foreigners. What does get me though is the notion that people might feel pressured to joining in when they would rather not. I'd rather see the traditional reception at the Guildhall and in similar places up and down the country once it is all over. It would be more dignified and somehow more worthy.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Andy Kev.":1tyg4g0l said:


> TN,
> 
> you're getting at what I was on about. If everybody is a hero for doing what their jobs routinely demand of them, what do you call somebody who does indeed go above and beyond?
> 
> I reckon that coppers and firemen routinely have bravery (by the standards of Joe Soap sitting at his computer in an office) demanded of them and with the help of their training they routinely deliver. All the emergency services have my genuine respect but I would bet that most of them would deny being heroes and that would not be done in a spirit of false modesty.
> 
> The other thing that makes me wince is the public rounds of applause. I find it corny and a bit embarrassing. However, I respect the right of those who wish to indulge and of course their motivation is sincere but personally I think it is the sort of thing best left to over-emotional foreigners. What does get me though is the notion that people might feel pressured to joining in when they would rather not. I'd rather see the traditional reception at the Guildhall and in similar places up and down the country once it is all over. It would be more dignified and somehow more worthy.



If you were cynical, you might think the public are being intentionally manipulated in order to "pull together", and more importantly to not question the narrative. You would have to be cynical, though. It's almost as manipulative as that awful "Thank you for your service" obligatory obeisance to any member of the armed forces that has become cultural enforcement in America.


----------



## Rorschach

Lons":3al5ii58 said:


> Rorschach you have absolutely no idea and are being deliberately ignorant and obnoxious, :roll: You clearly are an sad individual and I hope you don't have the misfortune to need the services of those you have criticised, it's a shame people like you can't be tattooed " do not resuscitate "
> 
> I can't comment on either the police or fire service though I have friends in both professions but I do have a number of close relatives who are or have been in the NHS as nurses, doctors and a heart consultant and am very well versed in the physical danger some of them were exposed to every Friday and Saturday night from drunks and druggies while on duty at A&E. There were many physical attacks though thankfully my family were lucky enough to avoid. Add to that the constant exposure to illness and now the very real risk to their own and family lives just highlights how much rubbish there is emanating from your direction.
> 
> Nurses to become qualified have to attend university for 3 years but without the Uni holidays instead of which they have to work on placement in hospitals and NHS community services then, especially in areas outside of London are paid below national wage and in hospitals they work unsociable hours often 3 nights followed by 3 days with only a day to recover sleep patterns, sometimes split shifts as well. All of that after dealing daily with death and serious illness, My wife and daughter found dealing with distraught relatives heartbreaking, I couldn't do that.
> 
> You're a disgrace and I'm very grateful for the fact I don't know you as it spares me being ashamed that I did!



That sounds like they are working a tough job and they should probably be paid more for doing it, but I am sorry they are not heroes just for doing it. They made their choice knowing full well what it entailed and they are free to leave at anytime.


----------



## Rorschach

Andy Kev.":1d63rzrr said:


> Hang on a minute, one of the great problems with the public climate in recent years is the attempt to close down dissenting voices, usually in a rude and intolerant way.
> 
> The point of a democracy is that everybody gets their say as long as they are not lying or being obscene or are advocating illegal action. As far as I can see, Rorschach is doing none of those. We have the right to disagree with him. We have the right to find his views out of order. However, the only acceptable response is to produce counter argument which shows those views to be fallacious (unless one takes the internet option to ignore).
> 
> It is currently fashionable to place the emergency services above criticism. He doesn't accept that. He's allowed to just as much as I am allowed to question conferring heroic status on all members of the emergency services.
> 
> So how about debating instead of shouting?
> 
> Lons, this isn't directed specifically at you. Your second and third paragraphs constitute argument (although I don't think that the first and fourth help in any way) but is rather an appeal to all.



Not getting political but it is exactly this reason why we have people who simply cannot fathom how Brexit and a Tory landslide happened. A whole generation thinks that if you simply insult and ignore opinions other than your own and those expressed by MSM then they simply go away, they don't, they go quiet and pop up at the ballot box instead when it is too late to have a discussion and arrive at a reasoned compromise and understanding.


----------



## Nelsun

I have heard what nurses do on a daily basis for over a decade. I'll not list the horror stories (I could break the internet with their volume) but know this: I would run and hide on a daily basis if I were in their place. That's just their daily grind. I'm sure the same can be said of many professions (police, military etc) too so, yes, I'd call them all heroes every damned day, nevermind now. I'm sure everyone else would to if they heard what their daily work sprung on them.

To say they knew what they were getting in to and they can walk at any time is technically (but only vaguely) true, but is also far to generalised to be of any real note. Anyone having spent any length of time in any profession requiring years of training and / or studying would incur a major financial hit were they to "walk away" as an example. A lot of people have families that depend on their income... I'm sure you can see where this is going.


----------



## lurker

My wife is a nurse practitioner in a medical centre. For two weeks the practice has been basically phone consultation only. She declares she is no where near front line.
The practice has whatsap to stay in contact which she has avoided until the past few weeks , but the chatter now, she finds quite nauseous.
She was pretty disgusted with emotional outpouring by some of her colleagues responding to the clap for NHS last week. The admin staff are apparently lapping it up. Most of them are part time but are using their NHS id to get into the supermarkets at the restricted time.

Having worked in NHS all her life she knows where the front line and risks are, and that she is a long way removed from there.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Nelsun":27alt7gy said:


> I have heard what nurses do on a daily basis for over a decade. I'll not list the horror stories (I could break the internet with their volume) but know this: I would run and hide on a daily basis if I were in their place. That's just their daily grind. I'm sure the same can be said of many professions (police, military etc) too so, yes, I'd call them all heroes every damned day, nevermind now. I'm sure everyone else would to if they heard what their daily work sprung on them.
> 
> To say they knew what they were getting in to and they can walk at any time is technically (but only vaguely) true, but is also far to generalised to be of any real note. Anyone having spent any length of time in any profession requiring years of training and / or studying would incur a major financial hit were they to "walk away" as an example. A lot of people have families that depend on their income... I'm sure you can see where this is going.



I have direct experience only of the Army: yes you do largely know what you are getting yourself into and yes you can walk away from it (obviously according to the terms and conditions of employment). Yes you can be confronted with potentially lethal situations which to the untrained civilian might appear too awful to contemplate but the soldier is trained to deal with that. Dealing with it does not automatically make you a hero and I never met a soldier who would claim that it does.

It's lovely to be valued by the country at large but let's not get hyperbolic about it.


----------



## Nelsun

Andy Kev.":muky9mwh said:


> It's lovely to be valued by the country at large but let's not get hyperbolic about it.


Absolutely. I'm not exaggerating - apart from breaking the internet which, I'm sure, would cope. And I wouldn't, for one minute, suggest those in a given profession consider themselves as heroic. Let's leave that to footballers 

It just boils my water when I see uninformed opinions about what folk think nurses do as they are very often so far wide of the mark. That's not directed at anyone in particular BTW and I shall now descend back under my parapet.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Rorschach":2dqyzo1l said:


> .... is exactly this reason why we have people who simply cannot fathom how Brexit and a Tory landslide happened. A whole generation thinks that if you simply insult and ignore opinions other than your own and those expressed by MSM then they simply go away, they don't, they go quiet and pop up at the ballot box instead when it is too late to have a discussion and arrive at a reasoned compromise and understanding.


This all assumes that all opinions, however half-pineappled/offensive, are equally correct. We're back to Gove and his comments about "experts" again!


----------



## Lons

OK just a brief response then I'm out of this thread as it's going around in circles.

Rorschach. 
Unfortunately your chip is showing now as the Brexit comment which I guess most of us knew was there has finally surfaced, it casts serious doubt on your motivation in my book.

If you look at my post you'll note that I did not pass comment on the police as although I can count a number of them as friends from several constables including armed response, a DCI, and a retired firearms expert I have heard the stories from both sides and know that there are abuses of power neither did I comment on the fire service for similar reasons and friends go as high as a retired assistant chief of the county.

My comments were aimed specifically at front line NHS staff who _in general _put themselves out there working extended shifts often in the current crisis not on the wards they are trained for, without enough PPE and in the full knowledge they are more than likely to catch the virus. If they weren't dedicated they could easily take an option to self isolate for a while on full pay, it's cheating but easy to make that excuse. I'm not saying that hasn't happened but the information I get from my family is that it hasn't whilst I know a number of people in "normal" jobs who have been very happy to stay at home on 80% of their salary which is different to the self employed of course.

There are people I would call heros btw and they are the thousands of retired doctors and nurses who have volunteered to go back and help usually over 60 so not low risk groups

I said once before that this is a war, there is a front line and the troops in this case are the devoted ( and exhausted ) staff fighting the battle. Those of us who refuse to help them by observing advice / instructions or think we know better should be locked up together without support and allowed to get on with it IMO


----------



## Rorschach

Woody2Shoes":134noro2 said:


> This all assumes that all opinions, however half-pineappled/offensive, are equally correct.



Everyone's opinions are 100% correct to them, and everyone has different opinions, no two people think exactly the same on all subjects.

However much you think another opinion is wrong though by shutting it down, ignoring it or simply insulting the person who holds that opinion you will do nothing to change things.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":2uomhq9l said:


> Woody2Shoes":2uomhq9l said:
> 
> 
> 
> This all assumes that all opinions, however half-pineappled/offensive, are equally correct.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Everyone's opinions are 100% correct to them, and everyone has different opinions, no two people think exactly the same on all subjects.
> 
> However much you think another opinion is wrong though by shutting it down, ignoring it or simply insulting the person who holds that opinion you will do nothing to change things.
Click to expand...

I agree with both of you completely; and therein lies the problem. Those whose opinions are based on hearsay, emotion, prejudice, and a lack of factual evidence will indeed be certain they're 100% correct. Ignoring/insulting/shutting them down is of course not productive, but the problem is that it's really _really_ hard to connect with someone that's not operating in a plane of reality. It is however, much easier to manipulate them with simple slogans and appeals to emotion - and sadly there are plenty out there more than willing to take advantage.


----------



## Andy Kev.

sploo":3qq4k460 said:


> Rorschach":3qq4k460 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Woody2Shoes":3qq4k460 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This all assumes that all opinions, however half-pineappled/offensive, are equally correct.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Everyone's opinions are 100% correct to them, and everyone has different opinions, no two people think exactly the same on all subjects.
> 
> However much you think another opinion is wrong though by shutting it down, ignoring it or simply insulting the person who holds that opinion you will do nothing to change things.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I agree with both of you completely; and therein lies the problem. Those whose opinions are based on hearsay, emotion, prejudice, and a lack of factual evidence will indeed be certain they're 100% correct. Ignoring/insulting/shutting them down is of course not productive, but the problem is that it's really _really_ hard to connect with someone that's not operating in a plane of reality. It is however, much easier to manipulate them with simple slogans and appeals to emotion - and sadly there are plenty out there more than willing to take advantage.
Click to expand...

The problem with what Woody says is who gets to decide which opinions are half-pineappled etc? The best line on this that I was taught at school and that I try never to forget is that your opinions are only as good as the evidence you have to back them up. In using the "B" word (I wish he hadn't  ) Rorschach has brought something up which is an unpleasant tendency on the part of some folk to be high handedly dismissive of opinions with which they disagree. There's nothing wrong with disagreeing with other opinions of course, however, the way to deal with them is by rational counter-argument i.e. the evidence thing again.

I'd also caution about mentioning "planes of reality". Philosphers have been arguing about what constitutes reality for donkeys' years. It comes back to evidence again and assertions, however loud and often repeated, do not add up to evidence and that is something which some people on both sides of the B debate failed to understand.


----------



## Rorschach

Sorry I brought up the B word, I just felt it and the recent election were the perfect illustration of my point. The London bubble and MSM thought they had it in the bag, they thought they knew what the country was thinking and those that didn't agree they thought they could shout down by calling them racist etc. What they didn't realise was that they were existing in a whole different world to a big chunk of the country and they had a nasty wake up call and have no idea how to handle it as they long ago forgot how to have a reasoned discussion.

Not quite sure how that constitutes a chip but oh well. In fact, have I even talked about "B" very much on here?

Oh and don't dismiss emotion too much. Everyday we all make decisions that make be factually detrimental but emotionally fulfilling. We are not Vulcans :wink:


----------



## Fidget

Just to add a different perspective on all this. 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":2obnu8qp said:


> I'd also caution about mentioning "planes of reality". Philosphers have been arguing about what constitutes reality for donkeys' years. It comes back to evidence again and assertions, however loud and often repeated, do not add up to evidence and that is something which some people on both sides of the B debate failed to understand.


With "planes of reality" I'm simply meaning opinions that are contrary to all available evidence. Now sure, there are always great scientists who change what we "know"; but they're notable by virtue of their rarity. The issue is the guy that's 100% certain you can cure measles by rubbing your elbow with an aubergine; because his aunt's sister's third dog's boyfriend read it on the internet.


----------



## Trevanion

"I never felt like a hero. I was doing my job, I was ordered to go there, so I went."

Oleksii Ananenko, Chernobyl Reactor Diver.

Saved hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives.


----------



## sploo

Fidget":1xpnryqj said:


> Just to add a different perspective on all this.
> 
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think


Good article - with some fair views. I understand that Germany has very good levels of intensive care beds; so that might partly explain the lower percentages of deaths vs overall infected numbers.

If it is "just" a case that the majority of Covid-19 deaths are essentially it finishing off people who would likely have died in weeks or months from now anyway, then granted, there wouldn't be an overall increase to the death rates. The problem is that it's creating a glut of seriously unwell people that need immediate medical treatment. I think we can all agree that (even if we knew patient X would likely die of other causes within weeks anyway) we wouldn't refuse that person critical care if they presented at a hospital with breathing difficulties - thus the increase on the load on the health services.


----------



## Andy Kev.

sploo":3badq5bo said:


> Andy Kev.":3badq5bo said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd also caution about mentioning "planes of reality". Philosphers have been arguing about what constitutes reality for donkeys' years. It comes back to evidence again and assertions, however loud and often repeated, do not add up to evidence and that is something which some people on both sides of the B debate failed to understand.
> 
> 
> 
> With "planes of reality" I'm simply meaning opinions that are contrary to all available evidence. Now sure, there are always great scientists who change what we "know"; but they're notable by virtue of their rarity. The issue is the guy that's 100% certain you can cure measles by rubbing your elbow with an aubergine; because his aunt's sister's third dog's boyfriend read it on the internet.
Click to expand...

OK but I think that what we can all acknowledge is that there is a tendency in the real world for people to only cite the evidence which supports their case and not the bits which their case can't account for. Your hypothetical example is easily dealt with by producing the known and proven evidence about measles. But - to go on risky territory - consider the assertion that they all voted the way they did because of what was written on the bus. An easy assertion because it is impossible to prove, is highly unlikely to be true (the claim that they "all" were so influenced) and so on, yet it appears to be accepted as an irrefutable truth in some circles. Producing evidence either way would be difficult but the chief point is that it remains unsubstantiated. I do apologise for producing an example related to such a contentious issue but it does make the point about people just asserting as opposed to arguing and ultimately, as Rorschach says, of dismissing other people. 

I think we desperately need examples from another subject area. Perhaps creationism would be a good one as it does seem to fly in the face of the accepted evidence.


----------



## Rorschach

Fidget":dd7x52n2 said:


> Just to add a different perspective on all this.
> 
> https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The ... s-we-think




Woah, way too much common sense in that article!


----------



## Terry - Somerset

There seem to be two extremes upon which opinions are based:

- driven by data and objective analysis, or
- based upon emotional responses or reactions to events

Most of us sit somewhere between the two extremes - and is the reason why opinions on the same set of observed events can be very different.

I am personally far more influenced by objectivity rather than emotion. But the "B" (apologies) experience really crystallised the extent to which sentiment drives opinion and behaviour.

Politicians know this intuitively. To win votes they need to persuade voters that they empathise with their views - everyones views, not just one set of views. Half truths, selective statistics, evasion etc are their stock in trade - in the hope that everyone will find a "truth" in what they are saying, and they will offend or upset no-one.

To assume both sides of the opinion "chasm" will be persuaded by rational (or even irrational) debate is probably naive. The real task is to find some broadly common ground or actions upon which both can agree. 

For CV19 the community needs health care. It matters not that:

- some see the death toll as largely related to those who would anyway have soon died, as for others it is a valued and loved member of the family at risk.
- health care workers are heroes or not - for some it is an expression of gratitude, and may motivate workers through a sense of being truly valued.

The goal is to get the best end result - and in a democracy that means we may not get what we individually want. Understanding what went right and wrong to better inform actions in similar events in the future needs to wait until the current crisis is behind us. Hindsight is a wonderful tool, but right now would be a pointless distraction.


----------



## MusicMan

Yes, "you're allowed your own opinions but not your own facts".


----------



## MikeG.

Terry - Somerset":1g6xp7ei said:


> ........- some see the death toll as largely related to those who would anyway have soon died.........



A quarter of 16 to 49 year olds admitted to intensive care with Covid 19 have died. The average age of admittance to Intensive Care units is 60, and half those admitted die. The facts simply to not support the opinion that these people would have died soon anyway.

Source.


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":19qpruzc said:


> OK but I think that what we can all acknowledge is that there is a tendency in the real world for people to only cite the evidence which supports their case and not the bits which their case can't account for.


I'd see that more as a case of confirmation bias (for which the evidence cited could be entirely valid); as opposed to an opinion based on gut feel and predjudice.



Andy Kev.":19qpruzc said:


> Your hypothetical example is easily dealt with by producing the known and proven evidence about measles.


Unless that person _really_ believes in the power of aubergines. After all, it's a vegetable, so it must be good for you right?

Point being: look at the damage caused by Wakefield's MMR scandal. The weight of evidence that can be produced to the contrary is overwhelming, but not only will it be dismissed by many, that evidence will often be seen as proof of a conspiracy by "the man" to hide the truth. Fortunately we've not seen too much of that related to Covid-19, but there have been a few wacky claims about it being an intentionally created bio-weapon. Tin foil hats do seem to survive, sadly.




Andy Kev.":19qpruzc said:


> But - to go on risky territory - consider the assertion that they all voted the way they did because of what was written on the bus. An easy assertion because it is impossible to prove, is highly unlikely to be true (the claim that they "all" were so influenced) and so on, yet it appears to be accepted as an irrefutable truth in some circles.


That's probably more topical (because it references the NHS), but I'd think of that more as a case of linking the product you're selling (be it yourself as a politician, a vote you want to win, or something you want people to buy) with something you know is seen positively by a majority of the population.

How many were swayed by that particular argument? I suspect no one knows, but I'd be amazed if it were zero.




Andy Kev.":19qpruzc said:


> I think we desperately need examples from another subject area. Perhaps creationism would be a good one as it does seem to fly in the face of the accepted evidence.


Don't go looking into "intelligent design" then... it may scare you!

(it's a field that's produced a lot of very plausible sounding evidence; albeit evidence that doesn't really work in the face of known science... but obviously that's not the point - it does it's job because it convinces many)


----------



## Andy Kev.

Sploo,

as for the "B" argument I too cannot believe that it was zero but I can't believe that it was all either. We will indeed never know.

I'm glad you raised intelligent design as it immediately puts us in safer waters. I find it endlessly amusing (as I would religion if it didn't lead to so many deaths in its name). The ID people even have very professionally produced magazines to make themselves look credible. Hilarious. Long may they continue because ultimately any harm they do is probably negligible in real world terms.


----------



## sploo

MikeG.":1rkdpggz said:


> Terry - Somerset":1rkdpggz said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........- some see the death toll as largely related to those who would anyway have soon died.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A quarter of 16 to 49 year olds admitted to intensive care with Covid 19 have died. The average age of admittance to Intensive Care units is 60, and half those admitted die. The facts simply to not support the opinion that these people would have died soon anyway.
> 
> Source.
Click to expand...

Very interesting data. I haven't read it in enough detail to try to be able to pick out the deaths by age group vs those with co morbidity factors; but it is possible that many of those people who have died did already have other severe health problems?


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":2svj6jt7 said:


> Sploo,
> 
> as for the "B" argument I too cannot believe that it was zero but I can't believe that it was all either. We will indeed never know.


Absolutely; I think it's exceptionally unlikely that in any subject/argument 100% of the people who take one side share 100% of the reasons for taking that side, or that one single issue is 100% of the cause of their viewpoint.



Andy Kev.":2svj6jt7 said:


> I'm glad you raised intelligent design as it immediately puts us in safer waters. I find it endlessly amusing (as I would religion if it didn't lead to so many deaths in its name). The ID people even have very professionally produced magazines to make themselves look credible. Hilarious. Long may they continue because ultimately any harm they do is probably negligible in real world terms.


But do remember that those who believe in it would argue just as vociferously in favour as others argue for their favoured beliefs. It's only safer waters right here right now because you and I both agree; chuck someone into the mix who's a "believer" and I'm sure it'd get messy :wink:


----------



## MikeG.

sploo":2u191xfu said:


> .......Very interesting data. I haven't read it in enough detail to try to be able to pick out the deaths by age group vs those with co morbidity factors; but it is possible that many of those people who have died did already have other severe health problems?



Co-morbidity is covered in the figures. And no, a large number of the people wouldn't have died otherwise. Here the figures are analysedby a hospital doctor.


----------



## sploo

MikeG.":3gba0xve said:


> sploo":3gba0xve said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......Very interesting data. I haven't read it in enough detail to try to be able to pick out the deaths by age group vs those with co morbidity factors; but it is possible that many of those people who have died did already have other severe health problems?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Co-morbidity is covered in the figures. And no, a large number of the people wouldn't have died otherwise. Here the figures are analysedby a hospital doctor.
Click to expand...

That's a superb video; thank you. Well worth watching the whole thing (for anyone else that clicks on the link above).

Also rather sobering; given my wife is an NHS doctor, and seeing the same issues with lack of suitable PPE.


----------



## MusicMan

Andy Kev.":yavvo9n8 said:


> Sploo,
> 
> as for the "B" argument I too cannot believe that it was zero but I can't believe that it was all either. We will indeed never know.
> 
> I'm glad you raised intelligent design as it immediately puts us in safer waters. I find it endlessly amusing (as I would religion if it didn't lead to so many deaths in its name). The ID people even have very professionally produced magazines to make themselves look credible. Hilarious. Long may they continue because ultimately any harm they do is probably negligible in real world terms.



Bit of a thread drift, except for those who believe that coronavirus is a visitation for our sins such as gay marriage... But it can be bloody annoying in the real world. I once had a patent application rejected because the examiner (in the USA) cited the Journal of Intelligent Design. The invention was an X-ray optical lens inspired by the multilayer reflecting structure of the eye of the lobster (which does not itself work for X-rays). The examiner claimed it was not original because God invented it first. I kid you not. We did win the appeal and got it patented in the end, though.


----------



## sploo

MusicMan":1u68drza said:


> Bit of a thread drift, except for those who believe that coronavirus is a visitation for our sins such as gay marriage... But it can be bloody annoying in the real world. I once had a patent application rejected because the examiner (in the USA) cited the Journal of Intelligent Design. The invention was an X-ray optical lens inspired by the multilayer reflecting structure of the eye of the lobster (which does not itself work for X-rays). The examiner claimed it was not original because God invented it first. I kid you not. We did win the appeal and got it patented in the end, though.


By his logic, surely God invented _everything_ first; therefore there would be no point in patent applications, and therefore no point in his role :wink:

Anyway, I see your multilayer X-ray optical lens invention, and I raise you my invention of a too-small-for-my-lens camera filter that I stuck into the middle of a badly hacked bit of cardboard with some of my daughter's brightly coloured sticky tape; in order to jam it into the end of a lens hood. I'll... err... get my coat...


----------



## MikeG.

sploo":hmrm0nrp said:


> .........That's a superb video; thank you. Well worth watching the whole thing (for anyone else that clicks on the link above).......



There are 3 or 4 other good ones from him on Covid 19 that I recommend everyone should watch. I was following him for a while before the corona virus came along.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MusicMan":16hj8v30 said:


> Andy Kev.":16hj8v30 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Sploo,
> 
> as for the "B" argument I too cannot believe that it was zero but I can't believe that it was all either. We will indeed never know.
> 
> I'm glad you raised intelligent design as it immediately puts us in safer waters. I find it endlessly amusing (as I would religion if it didn't lead to so many deaths in its name). The ID people even have very professionally produced magazines to make themselves look credible. Hilarious. Long may they continue because ultimately any harm they do is probably negligible in real world terms.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Bit of a thread drift, except for those who believe that coronavirus is a visitation for our sins such as gay marriage... But it can be bloody annoying in the real world. I once had a patent application rejected because the examiner (in the USA) cited the Journal of Intelligent Design. The invention was an X-ray optical lens inspired by the multilayer reflecting structure of the eye of the lobster (which does not itself work for X-rays). The examiner claimed it was not original because God invented it first. I kid you not. We did win the appeal and got it patented in the end, though.
Click to expand...

A wonderful antidote to fundamentalist theological lunacy and indeed religion in general is the book _God Is Not Great_ by the late Christopher Hitchens. In particular his account of the beginnings of Mormonism is so funny (and he tells it straight) that it is barely believable that that religion survives to this day.


----------



## MikeG.

Andy Kev.":222xewpo said:


> .........the book _God Is Not Great_ by the late Christopher Hitchens.........



Superb book. Shame we've only got Hitchens-lite left.


----------



## transatlantic

I don't know how people can be religous in times like these. It has to raise some questions ...


----------



## Lons

I said I was out of the thread but feel I need to post this as an example against the points made that "they are just doing their job".

My niece is a senior nurse in a London hospital, she has a 12 month old daughter and was working part time on a 3 day week but was asked a month ago if she would be willing to increase her hours and move into a front line position caring for C-19 patients. Her partner is a political journalist with the BBC and they allowed him some leeway to take time off and do some work from home so my niece has for the last 4 weeks been working long hours and a 6 day week in the full knowledge that she would almost certainly be infected but her decision, she's a dedicated nurse and wants to do all she can, yesterday she showed typical fever and cough symptoms and is now in isolation along with her family. At 34 she's lower risk but the risk is still very real and if that isn't typical of what many in the NHS are doing then I don't know what is!

On the other hand I collected an order from Tesco click and collect just before noon today and the 2 guys handling it were brilliant, helpful, smiling despite it seems not having had even a minute break or a coffee since 7.30 am due to the constant queue of customers.


----------



## Droogs

Sadly just saw that a 12 year old girl has had her death attributed to Covid 19, don't know if she had any other probs


----------



## MikeK

Andy Kev.":3rqy0i5w said:


> A wonderful antidote to fundamentalist theological lunacy and indeed religion in general is the book _God Is Not Great_ by the late Christopher Hitchens. In particular his account of the beginnings of Mormonism is so funny (and he tells it straight) that it is barely believable that that religion survives to this day.



Great book, as are his others. South Park had a very funny episode about Joseph Smith.


----------



## beech1948

Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.

See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ3VOA76qQ

See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU00nSQoJjU

I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies. 

The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.

China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.

This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia. 

The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.


----------



## Droogs

Apaart from the links taking you to a home DIY advert, when you find the vid on youtube it is just sensationalism on the part of an asian tv chanel. "We can confirm the virus was spread by human carriers" no poo Sherlock, that's how they spread. Just purille jurno's praying on the fears of the uneducated in India


----------



## sploo

beech1948":ccucdmxl said:


> Why have UK journalists...


There's so much wrong with that it's difficult to know where to start.

China is a populous nation with plentiful (and cheap) manufacturing resource. The only way to replicate those low costs here would be a bonfire of worker's rights and protections - not something that's likely to be all that welcome (or indeed, good for those workers).

Whatever your position on the morality of the conditions of Chinese factory workers, the idea that they are a parasitic nation doesn't make sense; they have businesses that supply products at a price the world is willing to pay. Nothing parasitic about that.


----------



## rafezetter

beech1948":3p8y66o2 said:


> I was there to try to find toilet tissues as we have run out. I just gave up, got some croissants and went home for a cuppa.
> 
> Al
> 
> Appalled of Crowthorne.



Just read this - I'm not sure croissants will get the job done, and if any of you do happen to visit and get offered a "pain au chocolat" might be a good idea to pass.

On a more serious note I had to tell a group of four young indian people all in thier 20's, 3 ladies and a guy to MOVE AWAY from the door, they had been standing there the entire time of my shop - (for two people) - at least 15 - 20 minutes with I presume dozens of people coming in and out. No masks, all chatting animatedly, as they do - (which expells more air and whatever's in thier lungs).

The guy was like "yeah yeah" to which I said "no, not yeah yeah - there are signs everywhere about keeping at least 2 meters from other people and you're standing RIGHT BY THE DOOR, FORCING people to walk past you, in and out."

he said it was cold outside - I said I don't care you've got coats you won't freeze to death, now MOVE.

They moved.

Getting tired of these idiots.


----------



## Trevanion

beech1948":1v81kwvb said:


> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so.



Ah, so it's just a racist personality?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Trevanion":2wu2vlvg said:


> beech1948":2wu2vlvg said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ah, so it's just a racist personality?
Click to expand...


I don't think it's racist, because "Chinese" covers quite a few different ethnic groups, even if the majority are Han. More nationalist, or perhaps anti-foreigner if you were looking for negativity, but actually anti-globalist. Definitely a good idea to avoid globalism, which has shipped all the manufacturing to the east along with the slave labour and pollution. We smugly import all the stuff that used to be made in the west, except it is now much cheaper from china, because we don't pay for the labour, pensions, healthcare, environmental damage etc that would be necessary in a real, western economy. The fact that Bangladeshis get their factories collapsing on them allows for cheaper t-shirts, so that must be good for us. Who cares about Bangladeshis...?

The upside of globalism is that we can buy really cheap stuff. The downside is that no one in the west has a job of any value, which is about to be shown up by the mother of all recessions. Everyone currently working from home should consider their position - if you are capable of working from home, what are you actually doing, and does the world really care? Will the world notice if you didn't work at all? The middle class is about to be ram-raided.


----------



## rafezetter

sploo":309vi1oz said:


> beech1948":309vi1oz said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why have UK journalists...
> 
> 
> 
> There's so much wrong with that it's difficult to know where to start.
> 
> China is a populous nation with plentiful (and cheap) manufacturing resource. The only way to replicate those low costs here would be a bonfire of worker's rights and protections - not something that's likely to be all that welcome (or indeed, good for those workers).
> 
> Whatever your position on the morality of the conditions of Chinese factory workers, the idea that they are a parasitic nation doesn't make sense; they have businesses that supply products at a price the world is willing to pay. Nothing parasitic about that.
Click to expand...


At the risk of setting you off Sploo - Beech isn't entirely wrong.

The Chinese manufacturing system became the defacto system NOT JUST because they did it cheaper, but because companies worldwide started using them instead of companies in their home countries in large part (the majority I would say) to make bigger PROFITS - it sure as dung wasn't made "better".

What's that new amazon alike website from china? Every single review I've seen of things bought from it show the items are less than worthless.

Part of it started when "made in Taiwan" became the defacto mark of quality for electronics and such - but apart from a few western companies like HP - instead of trying to ensure and protect jobs in their own countries, they flocked ( edit: I wrote f l o c k e d) to buy these items at the obvious cost to thier fellow countrymen.

If all these companies had mostly ignored the chinese manufacturing base, BECAUSE of thier apalling workers and human rights abuses, the chinese system would have remained largely inside china and Asia as a whole. India and many of the poorer nations would have bought from them, but the majority of the 1st world countries DID NOT NEED WHAT CHINA WAS OFFERING.

They (we) had all been largely self sufficient for 100+ years and more.

And only now that China has closed it's doors saying "pinapple you we will keep this stuff for ourselves" only NOW is the rest of the world realising just how much self reliance they have given up.

If western countries don't start rebuilding some of our industries, there will come a time (I think) when China will be holding the reins to, and have almost complete control over - most western societies.

China already holds 16% of all foreign based debt of the USA. SIXTEEN PERCENT. That's not even close to trivial.

And as it gets even more wealthy, so they will be able to buy more debt.

I would consider this situation with a lockdown on exports out of China a warning shot across the bow of things to come for western civilisation.

Western govt's and companies helped to create this situation all in the name of profits to themselves, and at the cost of thier societies people - but what happens if China again decides to turn off the tap?

People haven't noticed yet that buying cheap is a noose around thier own necks, but they will.


----------



## sploo

rafezetter":2x0hf3ij said:


> The Chinese manufacturing system became the defacto system NOT JUST because they did it cheaper, but because companies worldwide started using them instead of companies in their home countries in large part (the majority I would say) to make bigger PROFITS - it sure as dung wasn't made "better".


OK... but how do you make bigger profits? Cut your costs. I.e. buy it cheaper => it is almost totally because it's cheaper.




rafezetter":2x0hf3ij said:


> What's that new amazon alike website from china? Every single review I've seen of things bought from it show the items are less than worthless.


AliExpress? Banggood?

Daft thing is; they often list the products you can get delivered direct from China for a cheaper price than the markup on the same item you'd pay from a local company - usually with a longer delivery time, admittedly.




rafezetter":2x0hf3ij said:


> If western countries don't start rebuilding some of our industries, there will come a time (I think) when China will be holding the reins to, and have almost complete control over - most western societies.
> 
> China already holds 16% of all foreign based debt of the USA. SIXTEEN PERCENT. That's not even close to trivial.
> 
> And as it gets even more wealthy, so they will be able to buy more debt.


Not sure I'd go to quite that level; but it's certainly valid to consider China's rise to mean that other nations are now more dependant on its goods (vs back when it was maybe just seen as a cheap source of supplies).


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":3t0u3s0b said:


> Terry - Somerset":3t0u3s0b said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........- some see the death toll as largely related to those who would anyway have soon died.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> A quarter of 16 to 49 year olds admitted to intensive care with Covid 19 have died. The average age of admittance to Intensive Care units is 60, and half those admitted die. The facts simply to not support the opinion that these people would have died soon anyway.
> 
> Source.
Click to expand...


Here is the up-to-date Italian data (in English), and the results are completely different: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronaviru ... zo_eng.pdf



> Mean age of patients dying for COVID-2019 infection was 78 (median 79, range 26-100, IQR 73 -85). Women were 3,088 (30.8%). Figure 1 shows that median age of patients dying for COVID-2019 infection was more than 15 years higher as compared with the national sample diagnosed with COVID-2019 infection (median age 62 years). Figure 2 shows the absolute number of deaths by age group. Women dying for COVID-2019 infection had an older age than men (median age women 82 - median age men 78).



I'm not disputing the UK data, just curious as to why every country has completely different outcomes. Germany has a gazillion cases, but no one dies, in Spain 10% die, I think - every country has different data. I wonder what this means.


----------



## beech1948

Ah the liberals reply. How quaint. Behind my current annoyance is some 35 yrs of doing business with the Chinese, most of Asia and the so called West. 

Try doing business with a country which does not recognise my right to own my product through patents or copyright. A country which feels it can just copy and use my software for local companies. Yeah been there and tried that. Oddly the only country with the same approach as the West is Japan. Where what they sign up to is what they deliver. You just need to comprehend the rules of the game and the consequences of the desired outcome. China not so much.

China a parasite.....time to look at the facts.

China caused C19 to exist through poor animal welfare and negligence..true
China allowed many chinese to visit with the rest of the world after that for 3 months
China has tried to suppress the knowledge of the existence of C19
China continues to lie and obfuscate to throw the blame elsewhere
Chinas only interest is to prevent China becoming a hated state
China has lied about the size and volume of C19 dead
China yesterday issued a PR notice that Britain had failed its responsibilities through inaction
China has blamed a military US delegation in October for introducing the C19 to China
China has leveraged its manufacturing cost advantages to deskill the West.
China has used the C19 vacuum of attention to seize South China sea gas supplies

So fine you guys who have replied laugh your heads off and try to put down the facts BUT....it will come to pass that the UK Government will be faced with doing business with China on Chinese terms in the near future. I'd like to think they would not but I do know how politicos are so have no expectations.

The low cost argument is now a moot point. Chinese wages had risen quite high, goods are still cheapish but the gap is closing. Chinese manufacture is not all hightech and much that they make could be made here. After all the transport costs alone add significantly to their cost base. A few UK universities have explored this and tried to encourage UK manufacturing to pick up the ability to compete with high tech manufacturing systems but to no avail.

My electronics are made in Poland and Portugal. My critical electronic stuff is made in Stevenage. Cases are from Malaysia. When I have asked about complete UK manufacture the numbers returned have been only 13% more than Poland or Portugal inc transport. I have come to believe that high tech manufacturing would close that gap but who will make the investment needed to get it started. Not a Brit.


----------



## FatmanG

beech1948":1sb9v1n5 said:


> Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ3VOA76qQ
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU00nSQoJjU
> 
> I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies.
> 
> The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.
> 
> China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.
> 
> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia.
> 
> *The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.*




Would you charge the bloke who killed the bat and caused this disease with war crimes ?


----------



## rafezetter

sploo":tdcc59tj said:


> rafezetter":tdcc59tj said:
> 
> 
> 
> The Chinese manufacturing system became the defacto system NOT JUST because they did it cheaper, but because companies worldwide started using them instead of companies in their home countries in large part (the majority I would say) to make bigger PROFITS - it sure as dung wasn't made "better".
> 
> 
> 
> OK... but how do you make bigger profits? Cut your costs. I.e. buy it cheaper => it is almost totally because it's cheaper.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rafezetter":tdcc59tj said:
> 
> 
> 
> What's that new amazon alike website from china? Every single review I've seen of things bought from it show the items are less than worthless.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> AliExpress? Banggood?
> 
> Daft thing is; they often list the products you can get delivered direct from China for a cheaper price than the markup on the same item you'd pay from a local company - usually with a longer delivery time, admittedly.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rafezetter":tdcc59tj said:
> 
> 
> 
> If western countries don't start rebuilding some of our industries, there will come a time (I think) when China will be holding the reins to, and have almost complete control over - most western societies.
> 
> China already holds 16% of all foreign based debt of the USA. SIXTEEN PERCENT. That's not even close to trivial.
> 
> And as it gets even more wealthy, so they will be able to buy more debt.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Not sure I'd go to quite that level; but it's certainly valid to consider China's rise to mean that other nations are now more dependant on its goods (vs back when it was maybe just seen as a cheap source of supplies).
Click to expand...


Ok - I'm impressed, a non snide meaningful reply.

Not aliexpress or banggood something else quite recent - ...... Wish - it's called Wish - google reviews for Wish products.

As far as profits are concerned - what was wrong with the profits they were making before? Why do you NEED £50 million if you were making £25 million? Pretty sure most of the major manufacturers in most western countries were doing ok - yes there were obvious downturns - but my limited knowledge thinks that the pursuit of "cheaper" led to the demise of most of the UK's shipping, steel and a bunch of other manufacturing mainstays, and the same for the USA.

Yes I get there will ALWAYS be people who undercut others, and those willing to chisel a little bit here and there off the quality to get it cheaper - but my question is - are we REALLY better off ?

Is the average person in western society REALLY that much better off because we can buy it cheaper than before?

I'm in the minortiy but I dont think we are - "cheaper" had led to the throwaway society we live in, creating more waste then in human history, and it's NOT just because there are more of us, go to any local refuse centre and just look at what's there - it's shocking if you actually allow yourself to think about it for just a moment, instead of maintaining the "fog of protective indifference" that 99.9% of people have been wearing for the last 40 years.

I've said it before - history (if we don't exterminate ourselves first) will look on this period of humanity (and assuming the chinese don't own the world) and the choices we made, very very poorly indeed.

it's just a shame I won't be around to say "I told you so".


----------



## rafezetter

FatmanG":3tbzw2s4 said:


> beech1948":3tbzw2s4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ3VOA76qQ
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU00nSQoJjU
> 
> I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies.
> 
> The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.
> 
> China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.
> 
> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia.
> 
> *The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would you charge the bloke who killed the bat and caused this disease with war crimes ?
Click to expand...


No don't be daft, but a charge could well be made against the Chinese Govt for it's usual supression regime of "you're telling lies" and how they treated the Doctor who wanted to alert the people.

it's not unreasonable to suggest it COULD have been contained in an "outbreak" situation by the Chinese - if they had reached out to other nations and the WHO when it was immediately found out this strain was new and vitally UNTREATABLE.

But they didn't, because the Chinese are the way they are.

And now thousands of non Chinese are dead.

What say you to that?

My fervent hope is that one of the after effects of this is that the WHO gets new powers and countries with poor records regarding outbreaks are forced to be more open or face charges of "intentional death" WHEN another one happens and it's deliberately suppressed.

Because it will be WHEN.

So far in the last 100 years we have got off lightly, the Ebola outbreak would have been a LOT worse if it had happened in China instead of Africa, if China's recent behaviour is anything to go by.

Even an outbreak in India would be preferable.

But China and N.Korea - with thier Govt run "information lockdown" societies - from just the pandemic aspect they have proven both are a serious risk to the rest of the world, WITHOUT thier nukes.

That's one of the biggest things that needs to change - this pandemic has proven a biological threat to life CANNOT be controlled by regimes of information oppression / suppression - and to try is an exercise in extreme futility.

LOL - a biological threat to life is like The Borg - it'll happen whether you acknowledge it's happening or not.


----------



## FatmanG

rafezetter":k3pwfn69 said:


> FatmanG":k3pwfn69 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beech1948":k3pwfn69 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ3VOA76qQ
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU00nSQoJjU
> 
> I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies.
> 
> The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.
> 
> China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.
> 
> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia.
> 
> *The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would you charge the bloke who killed the bat and caused this disease with war crimes ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No don't be daft, but a charge could well be made against the Chinese Govt for it's usual supression regime of "you're telling lies" and how they treated the Doctor who wanted to alert the people.
> 
> it's not unreasonable to suggest it COULD have been contained in an "outbreak" situation by the Chinese - if they had reached out to other nations and the WHO when it was immediately found out this strain was new and vitally UNTREATABLE.
> 
> But they didn't, because the Chinese are the way they are.
> 
> And now thousands of non Chinese are dead.
> 
> What say you to that?
> 
> My fervent hope is that one of the after effects of this is that the WHO gets new powers and countries with poor records regarding outbreaks are forced to be more open or face charges of "intentional death" WHEN another one happens and it's deliberately suppressed.
> 
> Because it will be WHEN.
> 
> So far in the last 100 years we have got off lightly, the Ebola outbreak would have been a LOT worse if it had happened in China instead of Africa, if China's recent behaviour is anything to go by.
> 
> Even an outbreak in India would be preferable.
> 
> But China and N.Korea - with thier Govt run "information lockdown" societies - from just the pandemic aspect they have proven both are a serious risk to the rest of the world, WITHOUT thier nukes.
> 
> That's one of the biggest things that needs to change - this pandemic has proven a biological threat to life CANNOT be controlled by regimes of information oppression / suppression - and to try is an exercise in extreme futility.
> 
> LOL - a biological threat to life is like The Borg - it'll happen whether you acknowledge it's happening or not.
Click to expand...


I bet the chinese or Indians or most of the world were saying as much about us back in the day when we were an empire or when we ruled the manufacturing world or we traded in human beings. If there is one thing history has taught us or me is that its human nature to be greedy pineapples and exploitation occurs because its essentially the survival of the fittest. Human beings are flawed, we all are i'm afraid and the nature of capitalism is one sure fire way of ensuring that in the race to the top there are always people trodden on by others on the way up.


----------



## Deadeye

Trainee neophyte":38ll3w5h said:


> I'm not disputing the UK data, just curious as to why every country has completely different outcomes. Germany has a gazillion cases, but no one dies, in Spain 10% die, I think - every country has different data. I wonder what this means.



Briefly:
The issue is in both numerator and denominator - the accuracy of both varies wildly between countries. Both are also subject to timing problems - for example, if you take deaths as a proportion of infected, it will under-report.
In the UK we have very good data from hospitals. So we understand the deaths in hospital well. But there are also deaths occuring at home - and the data collation from GPs and undertakers is less reliable.
Once you want to talk about infected it gets really flaky. Many people self-isolate and never get recorded. Some people ring 111 with some symptoms and get recorded even though they only had a cold in reality. A bunch of infected people don't even know it themselves yet.
Countries that have put a lot of effort into testing (whole towns for example) have better incidence information than those that solely/mainly look through the lens of secondary care (like the UK).
Also testing currently looks for virus DNA, so if you have recovered you may test negative.
Overall, it's a mess. It will become less of a mess as time goes on and if/when a fast antibody test is available.
Another confounding point is that countries classify "underlying conditions" differently - it's very blunt in the UK, which tends to give false reassurance

That's just the reporting.
Underneath that are genuine differnces in outcome (probably) arising from genetics, health status, and intervention timing and quality. I'd say it's impossible to judge that just yet, with some obvious exceptions. I wouldn't want to be in India for example.


----------



## Deadeye

beech1948":3spsh65u said:


> Ah the liberals reply. How quaint. Behind my current annoyance is some 35 yrs of doing business with the Chinese, most of Asia and the so called West.
> 
> Try doing business with a country which does not recognise my right to own my product through patents or copyright. A country which feels it can just copy and use my software for local companies. Yeah been there and tried that. Oddly the only country with the same approach as the West is Japan. Where what they sign up to is what they deliver. You just need to comprehend the rules of the game and the consequences of the desired outcome. China not so much.
> 
> China a parasite.....time to look at the facts.
> 
> China caused C19 to exist through poor animal welfare and negligence..true
> China allowed many chinese to visit with the rest of the world after that for 3 months
> China has tried to suppress the knowledge of the existence of C19
> China continues to lie and obfuscate to throw the blame elsewhere
> Chinas only interest is to prevent China becoming a hated state
> China has lied about the size and volume of C19 dead
> China yesterday issued a PR notice that Britain had failed its responsibilities through inaction
> China has blamed a military US delegation in October for introducing the C19 to China
> China has leveraged its manufacturing cost advantages to deskill the West.
> China has used the C19 vacuum of attention to seize South China sea gas supplies
> 
> So fine you guys who have replied laugh your heads off and try to put down the facts BUT....it will come to pass that the UK Government will be faced with doing business with China on Chinese terms in the near future. I'd like to think they would not but I do know how politicos are so have no expectations.
> 
> The low cost argument is now a moot point. Chinese wages had risen quite high, goods are still cheapish but the gap is closing. Chinese manufacture is not all hightech and much that they make could be made here. After all the transport costs alone add significantly to their cost base. A few UK universities have explored this and tried to encourage UK manufacturing to pick up the ability to compete with high tech manufacturing systems but to no avail.
> 
> My electronics are made in Poland and Portugal. My critical electronic stuff is made in Stevenage. Cases are from Malaysia. When I have asked about complete UK manufacture the numbers returned have been only 13% more than Poland or Portugal inc transport. I have come to believe that high tech manufacturing would close that gap but who will make the investment needed to get it started. Not a Brit.



Nasty post. Xenophobic and badly informed.
For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man. You might recall that a bat enthusiast died of rabies here a couple of years back. 
But, hey, haters gotta hate.


----------



## RogerS

transatlantic":2kcbnchc said:


> I don't know how people can be religous in times like these. It has to raise some questions ...



Ah but the trite (and rather smug) response from a believer would be"Who are we to fathom the ways of God?"


----------



## Lons

Deadeye":2z64lf3w said:


> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man.



It does look possible that bats are the reservoir and the carriers were pangolins so of course China wasn't the cause of the virus existence however China and other Asian countries are definitely responsible for turning a blind eye to the existence of illegal wet markets where these animals are traded live, handled and killed, where animals from around the world are kept in close proximity to each other offering ideal opportunity for a virus to jump species.
In a much smaller way just look at how introducing grey squirrels to the UK has allowed the virus they carry to almost wipe out our native reds!

The Chinese authorities were well aware of the dangers and chose to ignore them and then appeared to do the usual cover up followed by deflection of blame. Should they be accountable? Too damn right!


----------



## Jake

I think it is helpful in some of these matters, given China is a dictatorship, to distinguish between the CCP and the Chinese people.


----------



## RobinBHM

_Deadeye wrote:_


> Nasty post. Xenophobic and badly informed.
> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man. You might recall that a bat enthusiast died of rabies here a couple of years back.
> But, hey, haters gotta hate



I agree.

It really is not helpful to go down the blame route. This country has seen far too much ramping up of division and hatred, we do not need more. Trump has been calling it the China virus to incite hatred and deflect from his own failure.

I would say the West should be more fearful of Russia -they have spent years spreading misinformation and lies, causing damage to our democracy and still is.


----------



## RobinBHM

Lons":2xx3rgyf said:


> Deadeye":2xx3rgyf said:
> 
> 
> 
> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> It does look possible that bats are the reservoir and the carriers were pangolins so of course China wasn't the cause of the virus existence however China and other Asian countries are definitely responsible for turning a blind eye to the existence of illegal wet markets where these animals are traded live, handled and killed, where animals from around the world are kept in close proximity to each other offering ideal opportunity for a virus to jump species.
> In a much smaller way just look at how introducing grey squirrels to the UK has allowed the virus they carry to almost wipe out our native reds!
> 
> The Chinese authorities were well aware of the dangers and chose to ignore them and then appeared to do the usual cover up followed by deflection of blame. Should they be accountable? Too damn right!
Click to expand...


The Chinese regime should be accountable, the difficulty is that Western governments may take the opportunity to play a public blame game to hide their own failings. 
When this is over, the world needs to work with China to ensure there is the correct separation between animals and humans, to avoid any further zoonotic transmission.

In the meantime, stay safe everybody.
My neice is a radiographer, she is doing chest scans of covid patients frequently -so naturally Im really concerned about the high level of healthcare professionals getting infected.


----------



## D_W

Trainee neophyte":1r2g4s42 said:


> I'm not disputing the UK data, just curious as to why every country has completely different outcomes. Germany has a gazillion cases, but no one dies, in Spain 10% die, I think - every country has different data. I wonder what this means.



Cases are vastly understated here, probably in spain, etc, but not in germany. Germany and S. Korea are testing people in droves compared to most of the rest of the world and thus reporting a lot of individuals who wouldn't be recorded in other countries. Dr. (can't remember his name) on youtube from the UK suggested the health care system is better run in Germany than the UK system - go figure that, germans running something neat and tidy and orderly). 

My understanding from original studies was that some percentage of admissions require ventilation (about half here in my state so far). Without ventliation, they die. With ventilation, some die. Not sure how any of the drug trials are going so far, but we have something like 63 covid deaths. IT would likely be 4 times as much without ventilators. 

What I'm getting toward is unless patients are being refused treatment (like happened in italy), I would be surprised if the death rate of actual infected folks in different countries differed by more than a factor of two. Suspect spain has a much greater number of cases and if they're reporting a quarter, then the death rate becomes 2.5% instead of ten. 

Our death rate here so far is about 1.5% figuring on it being 2-3% as those who are currently critical don't make it. There is still excess capacity here (though that can change quickly). I'd be surprised if have of the cases have been reported as we have a lot of folks in the center part of the state here (and my neighbor - i live in the burbs, not in the rural center) who absolutely will not go to the hospital unless he's near death. He is afraid he'll be worse off there than here - lest one forget about the whole antiquated but often still regarded individualist thing in the states - suspicious of any large organization, government or business.


----------



## D_W

RobinBHM":3aze07kw said:


> _Deadeye wrote:_
> 
> 
> 
> Nasty post. Xenophobic and badly informed.
> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man. You might recall that a bat enthusiast died of rabies here a couple of years back.
> But, hey, haters gotta hate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I agree.
> 
> It really is not helpful to go down the blame route. This country has seen far too much ramping up of division and hatred, we do not need more. Trump has been calling it the China virus to incite hatred and deflect from his own failure.
> 
> I would say the West should be more fearful of Russia -they have spent years spreading misinformation and lies, causing damage to our democracy and still is.
Click to expand...


Living in a country that ping pongs blame back and forth with Russia, I'd say covid is a bit more of a concern at the moment. Probably for Russia, too, especially given the propensity for drunkenness (which probably makes it hard to follow social distancing rules) and dense urban housing.


----------



## Steve Maskery

I've just had news that the 20-something son of someone I once knew has died of C19. No pre-existing health problems.
It's a bit distant, certainly, but getting closer.


----------



## D_W

There have been younger deaths in the states, too. The first one, I couldn't help but notice that the writer had a terrible time telling an underlying fact until nearly the last line. The 21 year-old victim had undiagnosed leukemia. 

I suspect that many young and middle-aged individuals are going to find out they were otherwise ill and didn't know it (but it'll be their relatives that find out, and not them).


----------



## Jake

German CFR is creeping upwards, now 0.9%. As I posted yesterday(?), South Korea is now at 1.5%. Both were at 0.6% for ages.

Obviously still early days but that is starting to make some of the more optimistic scenarios postulating a very large unknown asymptomatic hidden denominator issue look less likely (there obviously is one, the unknown is how large it is).


----------



## sploo

rafezetter":2brzwkkc said:


> Not aliexpress or banggood something else quite recent - ...... Wish - it's called Wish - google reviews for Wish products.


Oh yeah, heard of them. Products look like tat; but it's not like there aren't plenty of other (worldwide) peddlers of cheap trinkets.




rafezetter":2brzwkkc said:


> As far as profits are concerned - what was wrong with the profits they were making before? Why do you NEED £50 million if you were making £25 million? Pretty sure most of the major manufacturers in most western countries were doing ok - yes there were obvious downturns - but my limited knowledge thinks that the pursuit of "cheaper" led to the demise of most of the UK's shipping, steel and a bunch of other manufacturing mainstays, and the same for the USA.


No argument from me. I have no problem with the successful becoming wealthy, but not at the expense of harm to others.




rafezetter":2brzwkkc said:


> Yes I get there will ALWAYS be people who undercut others, and those willing to chisel a little bit here and there off the quality to get it cheaper - but my question is - are we REALLY better off ?
> 
> Is the average person in western society REALLY that much better off because we can buy it cheaper than before?
> 
> I'm in the minortiy but I dont think we are - "cheaper" had led to the throwaway society we live in, creating more waste then in human history, and it's NOT just because there are more of us, go to any local refuse centre and just look at what's there - it's shocking if you actually allow yourself to think about it for just a moment, instead of maintaining the "fog of protective indifference" that 99.9% of people have been wearing for the last 40 years.


Yep. Agreed.

I do think there are some benefits to being able to buy products and equipment for budget prices, but I accept there can be negative cost (to domestic industries, and to those producing the products are unrealistically low prices).

To prevent that however, you either need to ensure people won't take advantage of the cheapest supplier (where the price indicates probable poor conditions for the workers producing it), or have a world-wide minimum set of working standards; such that it's not feasible for one country to undercut another simply by exploiting vulnerable workers. Noble, but unlikely to be feasible I fear.


----------



## sploo

Steve Maskery":26x97q9i said:


> I've just had news that the 20-something son of someone I once knew has died of C19. No pre-existing health problems.
> It's a bit distant, certainly, but getting closer.


That's extremely sad Steve. Bad enough to lose anyone, but 20s is no time to go.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

sploo":4ryf99qe said:


> rafezetter":4ryf99qe said:
> 
> 
> 
> Not aliexpress or banggood something else quite recent - ...... Wish - it's called Wish - google reviews for Wish products.
> 
> 
> 
> Oh yeah, heard of them. Products look like tat; but it's not like there aren't plenty of other (worldwide) peddlers of cheap trinkets.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rafezetter":4ryf99qe said:
> 
> 
> 
> As far as profits are concerned - what was wrong with the profits they were making before? Why do you NEED £50 million if you were making £25 million? Pretty sure most of the major manufacturers in most western countries were doing ok - yes there were obvious downturns - but my limited knowledge thinks that the pursuit of "cheaper" led to the demise of most of the UK's shipping, steel and a bunch of other manufacturing mainstays, and the same for the USA.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> No argument from me. I have no problem with the successful becoming wealthy, but not at the expense of harm to others.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> rafezetter":4ryf99qe said:
> 
> 
> 
> Yes I get there will ALWAYS be people who undercut others, and those willing to chisel a little bit here and there off the quality to get it cheaper - but my question is - are we REALLY better off ?
> 
> Is the average person in western society REALLY that much better off because we can buy it cheaper than before?
> 
> I'm in the minortiy but I dont think we are - "cheaper" had led to the throwaway society we live in, creating more waste then in human history, and it's NOT just because there are more of us, go to any local refuse centre and just look at what's there - it's shocking if you actually allow yourself to think about it for just a moment, instead of maintaining the "fog of protective indifference" that 99.9% of people have been wearing for the last 40 years.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Yep. Agreed.
> 
> I do think there are some benefits to being able to buy products and equipment for budget prices, but I accept there can be negative cost (to domestic industries, and to those producing the products are unrealistically low prices).
> 
> To prevent that however, you either need to ensure people won't take advantage of the cheapest supplier (where the price indicates probable poor conditions for the workers producing it), or have a world-wide minimum set of working standards; such that it's not feasible for one country to undercut another simply by exploiting vulnerable workers. Noble, but unlikely to be feasible I fear.
Click to expand...


It is possible people may be losing sight of who makes the decision to offshore, and why. Large corporations think exclusively in terms of share price, dividend, and financialization of those two items. Nobody particularly cares who makes what, but keeping the dividend payment up and and the share price bouyant is vitally important to the continued employment of the CEO, and his remuneration package.

Take share buy-backs: for the last two or three years most corporate types have had their companies taking on colossal debt, in order to buy back shares in the company. This has reduced the number of shares available, which increases both the share price through scarecity, and the dividend per share (fewer shares to divvy up the payment to), which also increases the share price. This practice has no effect on company manufacturing, sales or processes, but it makes the CEO and his suit-wearing chums very wealthy. Now the recession is here they are all bleating for bail-outs, because the level of company debt is unsustainable in any environment that isn't benign, and has zero interest rates.

In other words, off-shoring production is all about quarterly reports, share prices and clever financial shenanigans. It has very little to do with who makes what.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

rafezetter":2y82zzxp said:


> FatmanG":2y82zzxp said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beech1948":2y82zzxp said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEJ3VOA76qQ
> 
> See here...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WU00nSQoJjU
> 
> I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies.
> 
> The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.
> 
> China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.
> 
> This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia.
> 
> *The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would you charge the bloke who killed the bat and caused this disease with war crimes ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No don't be daft, but a charge could well be made against the Chinese Govt for it's usual supression regime of "you're telling lies" and how they treated the Doctor who wanted to alert the people.
> 
> it's not unreasonable to suggest it COULD have been contained in an "outbreak" situation by the Chinese - if they had reached out to other nations and the WHO when it was immediately found out this strain was new and vitally UNTREATABLE.
> 
> But they didn't, because the Chinese are the way they are.
> 
> And now thousands of non Chinese are dead.
> 
> What say you to that?
> 
> My fervent hope is that one of the after effects of this is that the WHO gets new powers and countries with poor records regarding outbreaks are forced to be more open or face charges of "intentional death" WHEN another one happens and it's deliberately suppressed.
> 
> Because it will be WHEN.
> 
> So far in the last 100 years we have got off lightly, the Ebola outbreak would have been a LOT worse if it had happened in China instead of Africa, if China's recent behaviour is anything to go by.
> 
> Even an outbreak in India would be preferable.
> 
> But China and N.Korea - with thier Govt run "information lockdown" societies - from just the pandemic aspect they have proven both are a serious risk to the rest of the world, WITHOUT thier nukes.
> 
> That's one of the biggest things that needs to change - this pandemic has proven a biological threat to life CANNOT be controlled by regimes of information oppression / suppression - and to try is an exercise in extreme futility.
> 
> LOL - a biological threat to life is like The Borg - it'll happen whether you acknowledge it's happening or not.
Click to expand...



China instigated a complete lockdown when the deaths reached 200, I believe. They were also first, so had to actually identify a new virus, understand that they were in trouble, and then take action. The fact that all the propaganda is saying that "China lied!", doesn't make it necessarily true - lots of different players wanting to put the boot in for different reasons have made China seemingly intent on killing the entre world, purely so they could avoid losing face. Western governments are purely benign and friendly, and the fact that they have managed to fail to control the virus, _when they knew it was coming_, is purely due to the nature of freedom and democracy, not incompetence or malevolent design. Only communist countries are evil. This must be true because that is the narrative. Oh, and Russia did it too, somehow.

Here's another viewpoint: the Chinese government was probably as incompetent as most other governments, but despite that they managed to do a much better job than most western governments. America's "Pivot to the East" just means we are now in a war of words with China, and a trade war, and if some defence company CEOs are very lucky, a shooting war, too. Can't go to war with Russia, because Russia would win, so let's have a war with the Chinese instead. "Oceana has always been at war with Eastasia".


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":7rdj9shz said:


> ........no one in the west has a job of any value.........



So nurses, doctors, dentists, charity workers, teachers, university lecturers, scientists, engineers, researchers, vets, farmers........none of these are jobs of any value. Interesting perspective you have there.


----------



## Rorschach

D_W":2bw68snc said:


> There have been younger deaths in the states, too. The first one, I couldn't help but notice that the writer had a terrible time telling an underlying fact until nearly the last line. The 21 year-old victim had undiagnosed leukemia.
> 
> I suspect that many young and middle-aged individuals are going to find out they were otherwise ill and didn't know it (but it'll be their relatives that find out, and not them).



Yes I think that will be the case. The problem here is that no autopsies or investigations are being carried out, if they die and they test positive for C19 then that is simply the cause of death. Not really going to give a true picture of things.


----------



## Blackswanwood

I am a bit perplexed by the debate as to whether these are deaths that would have happened anyway. Surely the point is that there are deaths occurring and that will continue to happen which are avoidable if we take certain steps?


----------



## Rorschach

Blackswanwood":2qiqx12z said:


> I am a bit perplexed by the debate as to whether these are deaths that would have happened anyway. Surely the point is that there are deaths occurring and that will continue to happen which are avoidable if we take certain steps?



You've missed a good chunk of this thread then.

To summarise:
We don't know if the deaths are unavoidable.
We don't know if these deaths are "excess deaths".
We don't know if these deaths would have occurred very soon anyway from something else.
We don't know if the steps taken to avoid the deaths now will actually end up causing more deaths later on.


----------



## FatmanG

Trainee neophyte":9j4m0sp3 said:


> rafezetter":9j4m0sp3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> beech1948":9j4m0sp3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Why have UK journalists not been following up properly re the C19 virus. Stupid and unquestioning and lacking any investigative prowess the Uk journo's need to be sacked and replaced.
> 
> I am coming round to believe that the UK should seek reparations from China for this Chinese cock-up and lies.
> 
> The UK needs an immediate Industrial Strategy to begin to replace the Chinese manufactureing which we have allowed to develop but which makes us weaker. We should stop buying Chinese stuff be it telecomms or even woodworking tools and build an indigenous industry and do it now.
> 
> China is essentially a parasitic nation taking from the rest of the world but delivering back the Corona Virus.
> 
> *This is not simply a racist rant but I have thought about this for the past 12 months or so. I would say the same if China was replaced by the US or Russia. *
> 
> *The UK needs to respond to this as though it was a war and place the nation on a war footing to fight it.*
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Would you charge the bloke who killed the bat and caused this disease with war crimes ?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No don't be daft, but a charge could well be made against the Chinese Govt for it's usual supression regime of "you're telling lies" and how they treated the Doctor who wanted to alert the people.
> 
> What say you to that?
> 
> My fervent hope is that one of the after effects of this is that the WHO gets new powers and countries with poor records regarding outbreaks are forced to be more open or face charges of "intentional death" WHEN another one happens and it's deliberately suppressed.
> 
> Because it will be WHEN.
> 
> So far in the last 100 years we have got off lightly, the Ebola outbreak would have been a LOT worse if it had happened in China instead of Africa, if China's recent behaviour is anything to go by.
> 
> Even an outbreak in India would be preferable.
> 
> But China and N.Korea - with thier Govt run "information lockdown" societies - from just the pandemic aspect they have proven both are a serious risk to the rest of the world, WITHOUT thier nukes.
> 
> 
> China instigated a complete lockdown when the deaths reached 200, I believe. They were also first, so had to actually identify a new virus, understand that they were in trouble, and then take action. The fact that all the propaganda is saying that "China lied!", doesn't make it necessarily true - lots of different players wanting to put the boot in for different reasons have made China seemingly intent on killing the entre world, purely so they could avoid losing face. Western governments are purely benign and friendly, and the fact that they have managed to fail to control the virus, _when they knew it was coming_, is purely due to the nature of freedom and democracy, not incompetence or malevolent design. Only communist countries are evil. This must be true because that is the narrative. Oh, and Russia did it too, somehow.
> 
> Here's another viewpoint: the Chinese government was probably as incompetent as most other governments, but despite that they managed to do a much better job than most western governments. America's "Pivot to the East" just means we are now in a war of words with China, and a trade war, and if some defence company CEOs are very lucky, a shooting war, too. Can't go to war with Russia, because Russia would win, so let's have a war with the Chinese instead. "Oceana has always been at war with Eastasia".
Click to expand...


TN
From this thread its clear to me that most on here giving the big speeches with the fancy words who have had a go at most of the world and everyone in it are no different to Trump et all. 80 pages systematically having a go at anyone and everyone. Easy to do from the relative safety of behind a keyboard. The opinions expressed on this thread by too many people are at best disgusting at worst vile and abhorrent. Droning on and on with political length posts blaming govt or the police are corrupt or the Dr and nurses treating the sick and dying are nothing special its there job. They knew the risks when they signed up. 
SHAMEFUL


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":5y9t9se4 said:


> .......We don't know if these deaths would have occurred very soon anyway from something else.........



Respectfully, that means you've missed a chunk of the thread. We DO know this. Please see the data and video I linked to yesterday.


----------



## RogerS

Blackswanwood":1klagh4k said:


> I am a bit perplexed by the debate as to whether these are deaths that would have happened anyway. Surely the point is that there are deaths occurring and that will continue to happen which are avoidable if we take certain steps?



That's a very reasonable question to ask. And you're right...we should be and are taking those steps to minimise loss of life. Anyone suggesting that the loss to the economy because of these steps is too great lacks humanity IMO.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":39y7r9jm said:


> Rorschach":39y7r9jm said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......We don't know if these deaths would have occurred very soon anyway from something else.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Respectfully, that means you've missed a chunk of the thread. We DO know this. Please see the data and video I linked to yesterday.
Click to expand...


Yes I have watched the video. That data misses out important points, no autopsies, no investigation, no widespread testing, no antibody testing.
Yes C19 is killing people, yes it would appear to be deadlier than seasonal flu (though we do vaccinate against that so numbers are skewed). But we don't know the true infection figures and won't for a long time. We also cannot predict what would happen to those people, they could be very prone to respiratory problems and would have caught seasonal flu.

As I said several times before, we will only know the true extent of this in a year or two when we can look at the excess deaths, though of course without autopsies even that number will be skewed higher than it is.


----------



## Rorschach

RogerS":3dlokkr4 said:


> That's a very reasonable question to ask. And you're right...we should be and are taking those steps to minimise loss of life. Anyone suggesting that the loss to the economy because of these steps is too great lacks humanity IMO.



I know Roger won't read this, but loss to the economy also means deaths, just more invisible ones. It's a sad fact but true.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Rorschach":pkyspuve said:


> Blackswanwood":pkyspuve said:
> 
> 
> 
> I am a bit perplexed by the debate as to whether these are deaths that would have happened anyway. Surely the point is that there are deaths occurring and that will continue to happen which are avoidable if we take certain steps?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You've missed a good chunk of this thread then.
> 
> To summarise:
> We don't know if the deaths are unavoidable.
> We don't know if these deaths are "excess deaths".
> We don't know if these deaths would have occurred very soon anyway from something else.
> We don't know if the steps taken to avoid the deaths now will actually end up causing more deaths later on.
Click to expand...


No I have not missed any of it Rorschach. Deaths are avoidable if we don't spread Covid19 - debating whether certain deaths would have happened anyway doesn't really help anything. That's my view - clearly though you know best on everything with your laser like analysis so I'll leave it there!


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":2bwbq24q said:


> .....Yes I have watched the video. That data misses out important points, no autopsies, no investigation, no widespread testing, no antibody testing..........



Respectfully, Rorschach, you're seeing what you want to see. That's called Confirmation Bias. Are you seriously suggesting that all those 16 to 49 year olds would have died soon anyway? If you are, then you need to be able to back that claim up.


----------



## RogerS

Blackswanwood":36w4b9cz said:


> Rorschach":36w4b9cz said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Blackswanwood":36w4b9cz said:
> 
> 
> 
> I am a bit perplexed by the debate as to whether these are deaths that would have happened anyway. Surely the point is that there are deaths occurring and that will continue to happen which are avoidable if we take certain steps?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You've missed a good chunk of this thread then.
> 
> To summarise:
> We don't know if the deaths are unavoidable.
> We don't know if these deaths are "excess deaths".
> We don't know if these deaths would have occurred very soon anyway from something else.
> We don't know if the steps taken to avoid the deaths now will actually end up causing more deaths later on.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No I have not missed any of it Rorschach. Deaths are avoidable if we don't spread Covid19 - debating whether certain deaths would have happened anyway doesn't really help anything. That's my view - clearly though you know best on everything with your laser like analysis so I'll leave it there!
Click to expand...


Ah, the bliss of the Ignore list, Blackswanwood....you're not on it, I hasten to add !


----------



## Chris152

Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well). 
Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":32ou3kz0 said:


> Respectfully, Rorschach, you're seeing what you want to see. That's called Confirmation Bias. Are you seriously suggesting that all those 16 to 49 year olds would have died soon anyway? If you are, then you need to be able to back that claim up.



I probably am suffering from confirmation bias, we all do really. I am also an optimist most of the time so that probably doesn't help either.

I am not suggesting all those 16-49yr olds would have died soon, certainly some will have had some weakness to C19 infection, but as we have already seen with a comment above a 21yr old died in the US, found out later they had leukaemia. They only found that out though because they investigated, we are not doing that here so we have no idea exactly why those younger people died. They might have had undiagnosed medical problems, they might be genetically predisposed, we will never know unless proper investigation is done. 

I am fully willing to admit I may be wrong and we might find out in a year or two, I really hope that none of you are wishing that I am wrong though.


----------



## FatmanG

Chris152":1m56vy0q said:


> Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
> As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well).
> Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...


Respectfully you cannot back that claim up. Mass testing can only happen if the tests are obtainable and as it was pointed out to me days ago who will do the testing the fairies at the bottom of the garden. The tests need to be developed and 2 kinds. The world are trying to buy/make tests PPE ventilators. As far as I can see we as a nation are trying to meet every challenge head on and instead of folk spending all day criticising others why don't we all start trying to find solutions to problems our communities are facing. Debating is healthy but like the disease its named after this thread isn't.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Trainee neophyte":ljhvc28j said:


> China instigated a complete lockdown when the deaths reached 200, I believe. They were also first, so had to actually identify a new virus, understand that they were in trouble, and then take action. The fact that all the propaganda is saying that "China lied!", doesn't make it necessarily true - lots of different players wanting to put the boot in for different reasons have made China seemingly intent on killing the entre world, purely so they could avoid losing face. Western governments are purely benign and friendly, and the fact that they have managed to fail to control the virus, _when they knew it was coming_, is purely due to the nature of freedom and democracy, not incompetence or malevolent design. Only communist countries are evil. This must be true because that is the narrative. Oh, and Russia did it too, somehow.
> 
> Here's another viewpoint: the Chinese government was probably as incompetent as most other governments, but despite that they managed to do a much better job than most western governments. America's "Pivot to the East" just means we are now in a war of words with China, and a trade war, and if some defence company CEOs are very lucky, a shooting war, too. Can't go to war with Russia, because Russia would win, so let's have a war with the Chinese instead. "Oceana has always been at war with Eastasia".



It's a complex issue. I think that governmental incompetence is a universal given, the difference between countries being the difference in competence relating to specific issues. Some countries are probably generally more competent than others and the reasons may be cultural. For instance how would you fancy living under S. American governance? Would you prefer the governance found in any country with a mediterranean coastline to that to be found in Scandinavian countries, NL, DE and UK?

I have the impression that the Chinese govt is relatively ruthlessly efficient. It certainly has few constraints placed upon it by public opinion and with the exception of things like the Tianaman rebellion or Hong Kong, no public opinion ever comes to light. Chinese govt. is the communist party and all else must be subservient and subordinate to that.

The frightening implication of the latter is that the CP is subject only to those constraints which it chooses to accept for itself. IMO it is a ruthless, amoral organisation only concerned with what it sees as the PRC's i.e. it's own welfare and prosperity. Imagine governance by an amoral, international corporation e.g. one of the big merchant banks or a very major manufacturer (ref your other post). You get the striving after total dominance driven by total self-interest and restrained only by self expedience, any wider moral consensus being selectively applied and only when it suits.

You can perhaps imagine that I dislike China. I do and and as a consequence I do all I can to avoid buying products made in that country (says he, typing at a made-in-China Apple computer). I fear that at some point the rest of the world will have to take it on in a coordinated diplomatic/trade war. The only alternative is that somehow democracy breaks out in the place.

I think that much of the criticism made on here about the PRC is justified by the facts. There will/have been be the usual knee-jerk shouts of "racism". I would simply point to the facts of China's MO.

So to sum up: the fact that the virus broke out in China probably due to the sub-standard hygienic practices of the Chinese peasantry is essentially neither here nor there (there are places all over the world which are just as bad). The matter of the response to it was symptomatic of the diseased nature of that country's system of governance.


----------



## lurker

Chris152":3hhi20be said:


> Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
> As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well).
> Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...



The reason for this is we have neglected industry in this country for so long and now rely on others to supply us with products. We used to be world leaders in pharmaceutical research and chemical manufacture. Now, all we are good at is banking and other paper shuffling.
In Loughborough where I live, there is a massive pharmaceutical research campus and it's been sitting empty for 10 years.


----------



## Chris152

FatmanG":11flrb5h said:


> Chris152":11flrb5h said:
> 
> 
> 
> Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
> As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well).
> Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...
> 
> 
> 
> Respectfully you cannot back that claim up. Mass testing can only happen if the tests are obtainable and as it was pointed out to me days ago who will do the testing the fairies at the bottom of the garden. The tests need to be developed and 2 kinds. The world are trying to buy/make tests PPE ventilators. As far as I can see we as a nation are trying to meet every challenge head on and instead of folk spending all day criticising others why don't we all start trying to find solutions to problems our communities are facing. Debating is healthy but like the disease its named after this thread isn't.
Click to expand...

I certainly don't want a debate. Have you been listening to the news reports the last few days about testing kits, ppe and ventilators, and our govt's failure to get them in time? Maybe the experts making those observations are themselves the fairies from the bottom of the garden, I haven't checked, but I'm inclined to think they are indeed people who know what they're talking about. Here's Richard Horton, whose name sticks in my mind for some reason:
https://www.express.co.uk/videos/614512 ... oronavirus
Yes, everyone's trying to get the kit now - but they weren't a month or more ago.
As for criticising the govt - yes, I think that's necessary as in doing so we can see the need not to wait for them to protect us, that we also have to protect ourselves in so far as we can and hope the govt successfully plays catchup.


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":2n71yr3t said:


> Chris152":2n71yr3t said:
> 
> 
> 
> Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
> As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well).
> Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...
> 
> 
> 
> Respectfully you cannot back that claim up. Mass testing can only happen if the tests are obtainable and as it was pointed out to me days ago who will do the testing the fairies at the bottom of the garden. The tests need to be developed and 2 kinds. The world are trying to buy/make tests PPE ventilators. As far as I can see we as a nation are trying to meet every challenge head on and instead of folk spending all day criticising others why don't we all start trying to find solutions to problems our communities are facing. Debating is healthy but like the disease its named after this thread isn't.
Click to expand...


A fair point but for one thing. The Govt/PHE/NHS et al did a very detailed 'What If' scenario some years ago (I don't recall the exact year but not that long ago) to model a pandemic and determine what was needed etc. PPE was way up there. But, the Govt ...regardless of political hue..did SFA. 

Regarding testing or lack of testing or lack of reagent. The Germans thought about this a while back and planned for it. We did not.


----------



## sploo

Trainee neophyte":afuyc3ye said:


> It is possible people may be losing sight of who makes the decision to offshore, and why. Large corporations think exclusively in terms of share price, dividend, and financialization of those two items. Nobody particularly cares who makes what, but keeping the dividend payment up and and the share price bouyant is vitally important to the continued employment of the CEO, and his remuneration package.


Indeed; and see the faux concern of companies when some journalist writes an article about poor working conditions for the Chinese factory staff that make their product. A few press releases and claims to be looking into it, then hope it all dies down (until another Foxcon workers jumps off the factory roof).


----------



## RobinBHM

Chris152":3t7g8s7n said:


> Listening to the news this morning and recent days, it's very clear our govt did far too little, too late - testing kits and ppe, ventilators etc, and in my expert opinion, lockdown (came in too late and now still flabby and inadequate). 'Led by science' might have meant more had the govt started asking the right questions a lot earlier. But they didn't.
> As far as I'm concerned we have to learn from this now, by making our own arrangements to avoid getting the virus, support those out there who _are_ trying to protect us (in spite of the situation they're being placed in by lack of govt preparation), and hoping the govt will at least do all it can now to get us back on track (in relation to those govts of countries doing relatively well).
> Stay home, ppe if you have to go out where others are, and guard against the virus sneaking in through the letter box/ shopping etc. And hope...



I just heard a doctor saying the NHS guidelines for PPE equipment is being reverse engineered to suit what PPE they have available, not what is required to protect against the virus.

Also NHS staff are being threatened with the sack if they criticise government failings.


----------



## Rorschach

RobinBHM":acnvggkm said:


> I just heard a doctor saying the NHS guidelines for PPE equipment is being reverse engineered to suit what PPE they have available, not what is required to protect against the virus.
> 
> Also NHS staff are being threatened with the sack if they criticise government failings.



Do you have evidence for this? I really hope it isn't true.


----------



## Jake

There are a raft of government policies including for PPE which apply for a High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID). COVID was initially classified as an HCID. SARS and MERS remain classified as HCIDs, as do various influenzas. The government declassified COVID as an HCID on 19 March (they say that this was backed by the Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens, but do not mention NERVTAG). That is not say that the requirements are reverse engineered as set out above, but the decision to declassify as an HCID did set aside the existing pandemic policies and create a policy vacuum to be filled with bespoke policy including for PPE.


----------



## Nigel Burden

Rorschach":14s8ezr4 said:


> RobinBHM":14s8ezr4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I just heard a doctor saying the NHS guidelines for PPE equipment is being reverse engineered to suit what PPE they have available, not what is required to protect against the virus.
> 
> Also NHS staff are being threatened with the sack if they criticise government failings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you have evidence for this? I really hope it isn't true.
Click to expand...


I have read this also in the Guardian on line this morning.

Nigel.


----------



## Phil Pascoe




----------



## Andy Kev.

As a rule I am in favour of people being free to criticise the government. The exceptions to this are perhaps wartime and where employees are required to sign a contract where they agree not to do it.

It seems to me that the current circumstances straddle the border of what should and should not be allowed. The feverish (no pun) climate resulting from the press having nothing to do but be obsessed about the virus which (and we must repeatedly state this) is not the equivalent of the Black Death or the 1918-19 flu means that almost any comment has the potential to be blown out of all proportion to its significance. There are signs that the BBC is already swinging towards an anti-government stance on the matter. Surprise, surprise.

IMO the short term dealing with the virus should be resolutely apolitical and it demands pulling together as a nation. The time for discussing everything will be when we have an enquiry once it is over. Mitigating against that is the fact that the NHS is the national political football and many of its staff seem to be fairly politicised. The Guardian, being what it is, will of course provide an all too willing amplifier for any concerns/criticisms they raise.

This means that we risk being diverted into a political row, which while it might give the clowns who inhabit the media something to do, would also have the potential to lower morale and determination to get to the end of the matter. It would also lead to more of what we already have in abundance: ill-informed members of the public going off at half-cock about something of which they have little real knowledge and of course getting terribly worried into the bargain.

I really can't make my mind up whether it is acceptable or not for the govt. to demand that NHS staff keep their traps shut. Possibly it is in the very short term and for the above reasons . If there are people deliberately trying to make politics out of all this, they should be ashamed of themselves. Otherwise we have to make do with the resources we have and crack on with getting through to the end of the matter.


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":2swuuxkr said:


> RobinBHM":2swuuxkr said:
> 
> 
> 
> I just heard a doctor saying the NHS guidelines for PPE equipment is being reverse engineered to suit what PPE they have available, not what is required to protect against the virus.
> 
> Also NHS staff are being threatened with the sack if they criticise government failings.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you have evidence for this? I really hope it isn't true.
Click to expand...

Yes, this is pretty much exactly what's happening (wife is a doctor in a major NHS hospital). Basically the guidelines on what protective kit is required has been downgraded; to essentially what's available.

She hasn't mentioned anything about threats of sackings though.




Andy Kev.":2swuuxkr said:


> ...I really can't make my mind up whether it is acceptable or not for the govt. to demand that NHS staff keep their traps shut. Possibly it is in the very short term and for the above reasons . If there are people deliberately trying to make politics out of all this, they should be ashamed of themselves. Otherwise we have to make do with the resources we have and crack on with getting through to the end of the matter.


This is all fine; but if I were part of a group that had defunded your organisation for a decade, then packed you off to "fight" with inadequate equipment, you'd probably not be feeling all that positive towards me. Especially if I publicly engaged in sycophantic posturing about how great you are.


----------



## Andy Kev.

But you can instantly see what I mean about diverting it into politics, because you are talking about underfunding for a decade and the reply to that would be that the previous lot trashed the economy so comprehensively that the bullet had to be bitten and savings made. You can surely see where that will go.

And of course there is the fundamental matter that the NHS seems to be a bit of a financial black hole, irrespective of which party is in office, which leads me to think that the problems with the NHS are not political but rather structural or managerial.


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":39b50k3u said:


> But you can instantly see what I mean about diverting it into politics, because you are talking about underfunding for a decade and the reply to that would be that the previous lot trashed the economy so comprehensively that the bullet had to be bitten and savings made. You can surely see where that will go.
> 
> And of course there is the fundamental matter that the NHS seems to be a bit of a financial black hole, irrespective of which party is in office, which leads me to think that the problems with the NHS are not political but rather structural or managerial.


But there's money for other things, no? And the financial crisis was worldwide; and mainly triggered by dodgy mortgage loans and the risks taken by the banking sector.

Agreed that the NHS almost certainly could be improved from a structural and managerial point of view. Of course that's easy to say of any large organisation. Probably a lot harder to actually achieve.


----------



## Andy Kev.

There has to be money for everything and none of it is government money as it is all taken from us either in taxes or taken out in debt for which future generations will pay tax.

And whether we like it or not - and I presume that we all don't like it - the crisis clipped the spending wings of government. Where it arose (Clinton's interference in the US mortgage market) is neither here nor there.

I would suggest that the first thing that should happen with the NHS is that it should improve itself structurally and managerially: what are all those over-handsomely paid managers doing? Once it has shown itself to be as lean as possible, then it would make sense to spend in the most efficient and targeted way possible i.e. on actual healthcare. Otherwise there will continue to be an element of chucking good money after bad.


----------



## RobinBHM

_Andy Kev wrote:_


> IMO the short term dealing with the virus should be resolutely apolitical and it demands pulling together as a nation.



I disagree for one simple reason: the government are lying.

we can only be apolitical all the time the government are being honest, as they aren't, they must be held to account. Lets remember this government got into to power and have been in the process of a right wing coup -we live in politically dangerous times. 

this government is putting politics above dealing with this virus -if they arent being apolitical, you cant expect the electorate to be either.


----------



## Andy Kev.

RobinBHM":odfhwvsb said:


> _Andy Kev wrote:_
> 
> 
> 
> IMO the short term dealing with the virus should be resolutely apolitical and it demands pulling together as a nation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree for one simple reason: the government are lying.
> 
> we can only be apolitical all the time the government are being honest, as they aren't, they must be held to account. Lets remember this government got into to power and have been in the process of a right wing coup -we live in politically dangerous times.
> 
> this government is putting politics above dealing with this virus -if they arent being apolitical, you cant expect the electorate to be either.
Click to expand...

Now this is precisely the kind of (malicious) nonsense that I am on about.

We are dealing with a virus which is a real world problem. This is no time to be diverting into politics, especially when the "arguments" involved get into hyperbole which borders on lying. No right wing coup has taken place. A government was elected according to the normal rules and procedures. You sound like one of those people who just can't accept things going against them.

I think we can expect the mods - justifiably in terms of forum policy - to delete your post and this, my reply to it.


----------



## Rorschach

Andy Kev.":c7tjb3rz said:


> And of course there is the fundamental matter that the NHS seems to be a bit of a financial black hole, irrespective of which party is in office



It's simpler than that, no matter how much money is spent on the NHS there will always be people saying it isn't enough. And to some extent they are right, by it's very definition when it comes to health and medicine there is always something else you could be spending money on, as long as people are dying of theoretically preventable illness then there is always research to do, treatments to develop etc. 

Saying it is underfunded is a straw man argument, it is always underfunded and always will be, voting in a new party won't change that.

To a lesser extent this applies to any public service really, people always want more.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":5zgajv61 said:


> Trainee neophyte":5zgajv61 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........no one in the west has a job of any value.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So nurses, doctors, dentists, charity workers, teachers, university lecturers, scientists, engineers, researchers, vets, farmers........none of these are jobs of any value. Interesting perspective you have there.
Click to expand...


The full quote is:


> The upside of globalism is that we can buy really cheap stuff. The downside is that no one in the west has a job of any value, which is about to be shown up by the mother of all recessions. Everyone currently working from home should consider their position - if you are capable of working from home, what are you actually doing, and does the world really care? Will the world notice if you didn't work at all? The middle class is about to be ram-raided.



We're taking about the future again - making predictions. By saying that the downside of globalisation is that no one in the west has a job of any value, I was (I had hoped) suggesting that all the value jobs that could be offshored, have been offshored. You then gave a list of jobs reasonably secure from off-shoring. As for the rest of it - if you work from home and no one noticed the difference, do you produce value? Some people almost certainly can say yes (I believe architects provide a valuable and very necessary service, for example), but others not so much. Once again, I have commited the unforgivable internet crime of a "logical fallacy". It's something that I do constantly - but not intentionally, I hope you understand. Paint pictures in black and white, and someone will always point out that blue could be another option.

So back to you - are you confident that middle-class life, with its wealth and security, and constant house-price inflation, and index linked pensions etc will continue unaffected by the global economic shutdown? A six week hiatus, and everyone back to normal, as if nothing had happened?


----------



## Trainee neophyte

RobinBHM":11tycom1 said:


> _Andy Kev wrote:_
> 
> 
> 
> IMO the short term dealing with the virus should be resolutely apolitical and it demands pulling together as a nation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I disagree for one simple reason: the government are lying.
> 
> we can only be apolitical all the time the government are being honest, as they aren't, they must be held to account. Lets remember this government got into to power and have been in the process of a right wing coup -we live in politically dangerous times.
> 
> this government is putting politics above dealing with this virus -if they arent being apolitical, you cant expect the electorate to be either.
Click to expand...



I can assure you that the UK government isn't lying. Only evil communist dictatorship governments lie. It is very clear.


----------



## MikeG.

I hate to be a party pooper, but syphillis is a bacteria, not a virus (let alone a corona virus).


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":2c7wa060 said:


> ........So back to you - are you confident that middle-class life, with its wealth and security, and constant house-price inflation, and index linked pensions etc will continue unaffected by the global economic shutdown? A six week hiatus, and everyone back to normal, as if nothing had happened?



I'm silent on the matter. I have no thoughts on those issues at the moment, other than a wish that my wife recovers and my kids stay well. This isn't about me. It was your claim that all UK jobs were worthless (in terms), and I note that you haven't withdrawn that, nor yet justified it.


----------



## Phil Pascoe

MikeG.":30gcbfk7 said:


> I hate to be a party pooper, but syphillis is a bacteria, not a virus (let alone a corona virus).


 :lol: Does the Donald know that?


----------



## sploo

Rorschach":2og169qo said:


> Saying it is underfunded is a straw man argument, it is always underfunded and always will be, voting in a new party won't change that.


Not really a straw man; it's based on data (the lack of resources vs patient numbers). So, yes, we could always claim that until 100% of "everything" can be treated then it's underfunded, but there are some sensible lines; tens of thousands of extra ventilators sitting around "just in case" isn't realistic, having enough basic paper masks and plastic overalls is.

As for a new party; we've had a party in power for a decade that is - in essence - opposed to state funded services, such as socialised healthcare. I'm not making a judgement on that (or saying that it's universally bad and the opposite is universally good), and I don't have a problem with different parties having different economic views (healthy democracy and all that). My problem is that the NHS is a popular thing in British public opinion, so despite being essentially opposed to its existence (and funding it as such), economically right wing parties will still claim to be big supporters.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":2v7xmqpq said:


> Trainee neophyte":2v7xmqpq said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........So back to you - are you confident that middle-class life, with its wealth and security, and constant house-price inflation, and index linked pensions etc will continue unaffected by the global economic shutdown? A six week hiatus, and everyone back to normal, as if nothing had happened?
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm silent on the matter. I have no thoughts on those issues at the moment, other than a wish that my wife recovers and my kids stay well. This isn't about me. It was your claim that all UK jobs were worthless (in terms), and I note that you haven't withdrawn that, nor yet justified it.
Click to expand...




If you offshore the manufacturing jobs, you are left with...services? Banking? Last time I was in the UK, about 5 years ago, I couldn't get over how many people were driving around, all the time! Where were the going, what were they doing, and didn't they have any work to do? I still don't have the answer to that one.

Would you like me to go through your list? 

Nurses, doctors, dentists - people do like their healthcare. Surprisingly to some, I would give them a tick, too. It's a yes!


Charity workers, teachers, university lecturers. Ahh, now we are getting into trouble...some yes, but some (most?) an emphatic no.

Scientists, engineers, researchers - yes, but quite a few of these have been offshored to China and the Orient. Isn't that the point?

Vets, farmers....farmers grow food, and without food people die, so we can tick that one as useful.

Government statistics:
overall in 2017, 29.7% of workers in the UK were employed in the public administration, education and health sector (the highest percentage out of all sectors); 18.7% were employed in distribution, hotels and restaurants, 17.3% in banking, finance and insurance, 9.3% in manufacturing, 9.0% in transport and communications, 7.4% in construction, 5.9% in other services, 1.7% in energy and water, and 1.1% in agriculture and fishing

The conversation was about off-shoring - do you have any thoughts on that?


----------



## sploo

Phil Pascoe":buqvsubd said:


> MikeG.":buqvsubd said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I hate to be a party pooper, but syphillis is a bacteria, not a virus (let alone a corona virus).
> 
> 
> 
> :lol: Does the Donald know that?
Click to expand...

No, but he knows there are 38m people in Seoul :mrgreen: 

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1 ... 1470417920


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":21tfcb5f said:


> .......If you offshore the manufacturing jobs, you are left with...services? Banking? Last time I was in the UK, about 5 years ago, I couldn't get over how many people were driving around, all the time! Where were the going, what were they doing, and didn't they have any work to do? I still don't have the answer to that one.
> 
> Would you like me to go through your list?
> 
> Nurses, doctors, dentists - people do like their healthcare. Surprisingly to some, I would give them a tick, too. It's a yes!
> 
> 
> Charity workers, teachers, university lecturers. Ahh, now we are getting into trouble...some yes, but some (most?) an emphatic no.
> 
> Scientists, engineers, researchers - yes, but quite a few of these have been offshored to China and the Orient. Isn't that the point?
> 
> Vets, farmers....farmers grow food, and without food people die, so we can tick that one as useful.
> 
> Government statistics:
> overall in 2017, 29.7% of workers in the UK were employed in the public administration, education and health sector (the highest percentage out of all sectors); 18.7% were employed in distribution, hotels and restaurants, 17.3% in banking, finance and insurance, 9.3% in manufacturing, 9.0% in transport and communications, 7.4% in construction, 5.9% in other services, 1.7% in energy and water, and 1.1% in agriculture and fishing



You won't come out and say it......but as you are now saying that some jobs are useful, you are tacitly agreeing that not "all jobs" are worthless.



> The conversation was about off-shoring - do you have any thoughts on that?



That's *your* conversation, not mine. I'm not interested in it right now. I was only interested in the bizarre claim that all jobs in the west were useless.


----------



## Andy Kev.

sploo":95tmy65j said:


> Rorschach":95tmy65j said:
> 
> 
> 
> Saying it is underfunded is a straw man argument, it is always underfunded and always will be, voting in a new party won't change that.
> 
> 
> 
> Not really a straw man; it's based on data (the lack of resources vs patient numbers). So, yes, we could always claim that until 100% of "everything" can be treated then it's underfunded, but there are some sensible lines; tens of thousands of extra ventilators sitting around "just in case" isn't realistic, having enough basic paper masks and plastic overalls is.
> 
> As for a new party; we've had a party in power for a decade that is - in essence - opposed to state funded services, such as socialised healthcare. I'm not making a judgement on that (or saying that it's universally bad and the opposite is universally good), and I don't have a problem with different parties having different economic views (healthy democracy and all that). My problem is that the NHS is a popular thing in British public opinion, so despite being essentially opposed to its existence (and funding it as such), economically right wing parties will still claim to be big supporters.
Click to expand...

The Tories dare not be opposed to the NHS, so they de facto accept it. We don't actually know the extent to which they believe in it or not - unless perhaps we are guardianasta telepaths. They certainly do not appear to be having an internal debate about doing away with it or replacing it as far as one can tell.

As someone who is beholden to no political party, I would suggest that there are other systems which cost about the same, where treatment is also free at the point of delivery but where the "patient experience" (excuse the horrible business jargon) is better e.g. the German system. A logical course of action would be to do a simple study comparing the UK system with those in place in comparable countries, then apply logic and choose the best, subject to approval by referendum so as to keep it above board.

Incidentally on the subject of resources. I think that this crisis made clear that we are not currently in a position to cope with the inevitable outbreak of a really contagious but much more deadly disease in the future. It will come one day but nobody knows when. It is inevitable given that it is unlikely that politicians will want to reverse globalisation.

How about building isolation hospitals and then leaving them standing empty? There would be a one off capital cost and relatively low maintenance costs but they would put us in with a shout of nipping the spread of a future disease in the bud. They could be located throughout the country near existing hospitals for logistical reasons but would otherwise just be a reserve for serious emergencies. We would thus end up with a low cost strategic reserve in the system. Stores for emergency medical supplies could also be built next to them.


----------



## Rorschach

sploo":20i0hkk7 said:


> Not really a straw man; it's based on data (the lack of resources vs patient numbers). So, yes, we could always claim that until 100% of "everything" can be treated then it's underfunded, but there are some sensible lines; tens of thousands of extra ventilators sitting around "just in case" isn't realistic, having enough basic paper masks and plastic overalls is.



Sorry I meant in general. There are certainly areas where there is a specific problem, the PPE issue seems to be one of them though that may not be an under funding issue as much as a poor planning issue. 
What I meant was every time we have an election, every party pledges more money to the NHS and everyone cheers, but at what point would anyone say "that's enough"? Never, people always want more, we will never have enough, but there has to be a point at which the money stops.


----------



## MikeG.

Andy Kev.":1ucrz3wa said:


> ........How about building isolation hospitals and then leaving them standing empty?.......



The one thing we really have learnt from this outbreak is that we can build an enormous amount of capacity very quickly. I'm not sure there is much to be gained from having empty buildings standing around potentially for 100 years when we can gain similar capacity in 2 weeks just by renting existing buildings. I suspect the bigger lesson is to invest in stocks of consumables.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":z8rlp0fb said:


> Andy Kev.":z8rlp0fb said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........How about building isolation hospitals and then leaving them standing empty?.......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The one thing we really have learnt from this outbreak is that we can build an enormous amount of capacity very quickly. I'm not sure there is much to be gained from having empty buildings standing around potentially for 100 years when we can gain similar capacity in 2 weeks just by renting existing buildings. I suspect the bigger lesson is to invest in stocks of consumables.
Click to expand...

That aspect of it hadn't occurred to me. Maybe military style tented hospitals (they are very sophisticated and state of the art as opposed to being just tents) could be stored in logistically optimal locations so they could be put up very rapidly. The only problem with taking up empty buildings is that they have to be empty in the first place. That might not always be the case. I agree with you about consumables, hence my suggestion about stores.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":2f4jixpa said:


> I suspect the bigger lesson is to invest in stocks of consumables.



Definitely. A short term supply only though to avoid waste when it inevitably has to be replaced every X years. I remember how much first aid kit we used to destroy because it was out of date, we were only a small business but the stock we were required to keep was frankly rather silly and 90% of it went in the bin.
As you rightly say in a time of crisis we can do a lot quickly, all we need is a supply to cover us for a week or two while things gear up.


----------



## sploo

Andy Kev.":1tkqetfl said:


> The Tories dare not be opposed to the NHS, so they de facto accept it. We don't actually know the extent to which they believe in it or not - unless perhaps we are guardianasta telepaths. They certainly do not appear to be having an internal debate about doing away with it or replacing it as far as one can tell.


I don't think they have any internal debate re underfunding it and selling it off...




Andy Kev.":1tkqetfl said:


> As someone who is beholden to no political party, I would suggest that there are other systems which cost about the same, where treatment is also free at the point of delivery but where the "patient experience" (excuse the horrible business jargon) is better e.g. the German system. A logical course of action would be to do a simple study comparing the UK system with those in place in comparable countries, then apply logic and choose the best, subject to approval by referendum so as to keep it above board.


A fair point - though an (if I recall correctly) American study a few years back rated the NHS very highly (vs a large sample of other nation's systems). The main UK problems were poor general health of the population; rather than issues with the care system.




Rorschach":1tkqetfl said:


> Sorry I meant in general. There are certainly areas where there is a specific problem, the PPE issue seems to be one of them though that may not be an under funding issue as much as a poor planning issue.


That's a fair point - planning rather than money is more likely an issue there.




Rorschach":1tkqetfl said:


> What I meant was every time we have an election, every party pledges more money to the NHS and everyone cheers, but at what point would anyone say "that's enough"? Never, people always want more, we will never have enough, but there has to be a point at which the money stops.


I guess that depends if it's real money, or instead going round hospitals for photo shoots whilst "pledging" the budgets they were already going to get... to use but one (recent) example...


----------



## Chris152

Here's the web address I asked about yesterday, 'raising £1,000,000 to Help feed NHS workers one hot healthy meal each day. Starting in the hardest hit London hospitals, then going National'.
https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding/FeedNHS

And this seems to be one setup specifically for Cardiff - maybe there are others set for local hospitals through the country?
https://www.gofundme.com/f/feeding-nhs- ... h-hospital


----------



## RobinBHM

Andy Kev wrote:


> The Tories dare not be opposed to the NHS, so they de facto accept it


The Tories have a vested interest in dismantling the NHS. 
Why? .....because they are paid to do it.

What they do is run down the NHS services, then get private tenders for it. They can claim its still the NHS as the private operator gets paid by the government. Unfortunately private healthcare is driven by shareholder profits not patient care.

Matt Hancock: "£32,000 from Neil Record, who just so happens to be the Chairman of the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA)."

Dominic Raab "co-authored a pamphlet that advocated increased privatisation of the NHS,"

Jeremy Hunt "Received £32,920 from hedge fund baron Andrew Law, a major investor in healthcare firms"

Liam Fox: "Received £5,000 from investment company IPGL Ltd, who purchased healthcare pharma company Cyprotex

Sajid Javid "Received £11,000 from Moundsley Healthcare Ltd last year."

Penny Mordaunt "worked for lobbying firm Hanover, where she had a range of healthcare clients."

Priti Patel "Worked for lobbying firm Weber Shandwick, which does PR for big healthcare and pharmaceutical firms"

John Redwood "Advised the private equity company which runs Pharmacy2u, the UK’s largest dedicated internet and mail order pharmacy."

Amber Rudd "Received £3,000 from hedge fund baron Andrew Law, a major investor in healthcare firms."

Matthew Elliott "is the founder of the Taxpayers Alliance – which has long argued for the break-up of the NHS and private competition in healthcare."


----------



## Blackswanwood

Isn't this straying into politics?


----------



## RobinBHM

Andy Kev wrote:


> cost about the same, where treatment is also free at the point of delivery but where the "patient experience" (excuse the horrible business jargon) is better e.g. the German system



I believe the German healthcare system is much better funded and it costs more.

Its a mixed system of state, profit, not for profit. My limited knowledge says its pretty good.

The worst thing the UK could have is the US insurance based system.


----------



## MikeG.

RobinBHM":1rzii33w said:


> ........The Tories.........



The Rules.

_*(6a.) Politics.*
Over the years there has been one subject that has caused heated debates on the forums and that is politics. For that reason political discussion, in particular party political comments in a thread are not regarded as acceptable....._

Please don't spoil it for everyone.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":qc9mxpp2 said:


> RobinBHM":qc9mxpp2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........The Tories.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The Rules.
> 
> _*(6a.) Politics.*
> Over the years there has been one subject that has caused heated debates on the forums and that is politics. For that reason political discussion, in particular party political comments in a thread are not regarded as acceptable....._
> 
> Please don't spoil it for everyone.
Click to expand...


Agreed. Another one for the Ignore list. Best form of social-distancing going :wink:


----------



## RobinBHM

Blackswanwood":30xpjm33 said:


> Isn't this straying into politics?



yes it is, my apologies.

it is rather hard to separate coronavirus from politics -they are closely intertwined, despite the claim of 'science based'.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":1olry167 said:


> Trainee neophyte":1olry167 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......If you offshore the manufacturing jobs, you are left with...services? Banking? Last time I was in the UK, about 5 years ago, I couldn't get over how many people were driving around, all the time! Where were the going, what were they doing, and didn't they have any work to do? I still don't have the answer to that one.
> 
> Would you like me to go through your list?
> 
> Nurses, doctors, dentists - people do like their healthcare. Surprisingly to some, I would give them a tick, too. It's a yes!
> 
> 
> Charity workers, teachers, university lecturers. Ahh, now we are getting into trouble...some yes, but some (most?) an emphatic no.
> 
> Scientists, engineers, researchers - yes, but quite a few of these have been offshored to China and the Orient. Isn't that the point?
> 
> Vets, farmers....farmers grow food, and without food people die, so we can tick that one as useful.
> 
> Government statistics:
> overall in 2017, 29.7% of workers in the UK were employed in the public administration, education and health sector (the highest percentage out of all sectors); 18.7% were employed in distribution, hotels and restaurants, 17.3% in banking, finance and insurance, 9.3% in manufacturing, 9.0% in transport and communications, 7.4% in construction, 5.9% in other services, 1.7% in energy and water, and 1.1% in agriculture and fishing
> 
> 
> 
> 
> You won't come out and say it......but as you are now saying that some jobs are useful, you are tacitly agreeing that not "all jobs" are worthless.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> The conversation was about off-shoring - do you have any thoughts on that?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That's *your* conversation, not mine. I'm not interested in it right now. I was only interested in the bizarre claim that all jobs in the west were useless.
Click to expand...


I'm so sorry, I didn't understand the conversation. I thought we were talking about off-shoring but it turns out you wanted a simpler conversation, so here we go:



> “I'm right and you're wrong, I'm big and you're small, and there's nothing you can do about it.”


https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/30120-i-m-right-and-you-re-wrong-i-m-big-and-you-re-small

That's the thrust of what you wanted to say, I take it? I will happily fall on my sword and admit to your being right, if it makes you feel better. Yes, Mike, there is more than one job in the UK that provides value. Several, in fact. We could go as far as to say "many" in troll counting numerology. 

I.
Was.
Wrong.

#-o


----------



## Terry - Somerset

Reading some of the recent posts a few thoughts come to mind.

Firstly, had the Tories had any intention of privatising or dismantling health care in the UK they would have made far greater progress by now. They have been in government for the last 10 years, and for 17 out of the previous 30 back to the Thatcher era.

They want to be elected (as all parties do) and know the NHS as a concept is highly valued by the public. So suggesting it is "soldoff" would be a complete vote loser. There may be a limited number at the top of the financial tree - but most Tories value the NHS. To suggest otherwise is to cynically use the NHS as a political point scoring exercise.

The second thought relates to the amount of money spent on the NHS. Other countries do things differently and many spend more. I come from a view that if we want to spend more the money has to come from somewhere - either alternative cuts or increased taxation. 

However, just imagine the outcry (say) 6 months ago had the press found that there were (say) 10,000 fully kitted beds mothballed, stores full of several normal years supply of consumables, all of which become old, need servicing and testing, past certification dates, etc. This is not an argument not to invest as part of a contingency plan, but we need to be open about the costs and consequences.

Finally to those be-moaning the loss of UK manufacturing and the rise of service industries. This crisis will change and probably reduce global interdependence and lengthy complex supply chains. But with the growth of IT, automation and robotics the real skill lies in design and high tech. 

The original rational for moving product manufacture to China etc was lower labour costs. As the labour content of products falls, and the pay level in China increases, offshoring manufacturing no longer makes such good sense. Note the cost of the sophisticated automated kit costs the chinese much the same as elsewhere.


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":3b45kofi said:


> .........I'm so sorry, I didn't understand the conversation. I thought we were talking about off-shoring but it turns out you wanted a simpler conversation, so here we go:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “I'm right and you're wrong, I'm big and you're small, and there's nothing you can do about it.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/30120-i-m-right-and-you-re-wrong-i-m-big-and-you-re-small
> 
> That's the thrust of what you wanted to say, I take it? I will happily fall on my sword and admit to your being right, if it makes you feel better. Yes, Mike, there is more than one job in the UK that provides value. Several, in fact. We could go as far as to say "many" in troll counting numerology.
> 
> I.
> Was.
> Wrong.
> 
> #-o
Click to expand...


Don't be silly, TN. I gave you two chances to row back from your statement, and you didn't. You doubled-down, as the Americans say (I'm told). This isn't about winning, but about understanding why you would claim all UK jobs were worthless. If the lesson is to not make claims you can't back up, then we're all a winner.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

Terry - Somerset":1zchh1s9 said:


> Finally to those be-moaning the loss of UK manufacturing and the rise of service industries. This crisis will change and probably reduce global interdependence and lengthy complex supply chains. But with the growth of IT, automation and robotics the real skill lies in design and high tech.
> 
> The original rational for moving product manufacture to China etc was lower labour costs. As the labour content of products falls, and the pay level in China increases, offshoring manufacturing no longer makes such good sense. Note the cost of the sophisticated automated kit costs the chinese much the same as elsewhere.



Interestingly, there is some evidence that's happening already. The UK foundry industry stared to see an upturn in demand two or three years ago (reported in Professional Engineering, the monthly mag. of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers). Reasons given were the increased productivity of remaining UK foundries (same capacity with reduced labour force), transport costs (castings tend to be heavy!), shorter lead-times (transporting something round the globe adds time), quality issues with some imports, along with some falsified QA documentation. One UK manufacturer put it like this; "If you have a quality issue with your casting supplier and they're thirty miles down the road, you can get in your car and have a conversation about it before lunchtime. If your supplier is on the other side of the planet, not so much."


----------



## Andy Kev.

Terry - Somerset":28s8h3mq said:


> Reading some of the recent posts a few thoughts come to mind.
> 
> Firstly, had the Tories had any intention of privatising or dismantling health care in the UK they would have made far greater progress by now. They have been in government for the last 10 years, and for 17 out of the previous 30 back to the Thatcher era.
> 
> They want to be elected (as all parties do) and know the NHS as a concept is highly valued by the public. So suggesting it is "soldoff" would be a complete vote loser. There may be a limited number at the top of the financial tree - but most Tories value the NHS. To suggest otherwise is to cynically use the NHS as a political point scoring exercise.
> 
> The second thought relates to the amount of money spent on the NHS. Other countries do things differently and many spend more. I come from a view that if we want to spend more the money has to come from somewhere - either alternative cuts or increased taxation.
> 
> However, just imagine the outcry (say) 6 months ago had the press found that there were (say) 10,000 fully kitted beds mothballed, stores full of several normal years supply of consumables, all of which become old, need servicing and testing, past certification dates, etc. This is not an argument not to invest as part of a contingency plan, but we need to be open about the costs and consequences.
> 
> Finally to those be-moaning the loss of UK manufacturing and the rise of service industries. This crisis will change and probably reduce global interdependence and lengthy complex supply chains. But with the growth of IT, automation and robotics the real skill lies in design and high tech.
> 
> The original rational for moving product manufacture to China etc was lower labour costs. As the labour content of products falls, and the pay level in China increases, offshoring manufacturing no longer makes such good sense. Note the cost of the sophisticated automated kit costs the chinese much the same as elsewhere.


That's balanced, logical and it makes sense. It'll never catch on.


----------



## ColeyS1

Just finished watching the film 'contagion' The ending scene was a bit close for comfort. It showed a bat sat upon a truss dropping its faeces, then a pig eating it and passing it on to a chef passing it on etc etc. The worlds been turned upside down

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## RobinBHM

Terry Somerset wrote:


> To suggest otherwise is to cynically use the NHS as a political point scoring exercise



Its not cynical, its reality. Try googling: tufton street, Matthew Elliott, Dr Kristian Niemietz, Capx, taxpayers alliance, Cato institute, Koch foundation. Tufton street connects think tanks (lobby groups) with US business interests, climate change deniers, private healthcare. Elliott is a highly influential advisor with connections to Trump and Koch brothers.

There is a considerable hidden agenda going on, driven by vested self interest. 

following every pandemic in history there has been social change, lets hope whatever happens, the outcome is better not worse.

for me personally Im just worried about my niece who works as a radiographer in the NHS and is dealing with covid 19 patients (respiratory damage that is cause by this virus is apparently pretty unique and serious).


----------



## profchris

In some posters I detect the old "manufacturing good, services bad" fallacy. Services is not a zero sum game.

Just as an example, I work on one of the world's most successful (in my own estimation  ) postgraduate teaching programmes. I and colleagues work on other things as well, so I estimate that the equivalent of between 60 and 80 full-time people is devoted to offering that programme.

90% of our students come from outside the UK, and I estimate that this generates around £13.5 million of revenue directly from those students (which of course gets spent in the UK economy by those who get a share of it, employees, our building landlord, the local council, outside contractors, etc) and a further £15 million or so which the students spend on rent, food and drinks, clothing, entertainment, etc.

So if 60-80 people generate around £28 million of import earnings, but are useless, there is an interesting underlying definition of "useful" somewhere in the discussion.

Admittedly my area of work is particularly attractive globally, but my colleagues in other areas of my work at my university also generate substantial income of this kind. I can't estimate it with any accuracy, maybe a further £100 million or so.

The same is true of the other UK universities to a greater or lesser extent.

For the UK we import more manufactured goods than we export. We export more services than we import. Our services are generally high value, the goods we import are generally low value. 

I can't see that this is intrinsically wrong, and in financial terms it's certainly not valueless.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Regarding the perpetual NHS crisis, this may help:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... per_capita

I can't get any of the charts to show, and the table formatting won't paste easily, but the bottom line is that the UK funds significantly less per head of population than most western countries. Suprise, suprise, it is in need of funds. That being said, you would need to compare outcomes to see if it is cost effective - spending at USA rates doesn't mean you get great healthcare, just fleeced. 

https://stateofreform.com/wp-content/up ... x-2014.pdf


> In terms of countries, Japan has the best outcomes in our analysis and also scores comparatively well on value for money. Singapore and South Korea achieve similar outcomes, however, at an even lower cost. l The US, as its reputation suggests, emerges from our analysis as a poor-value healthcare system. Despite spending the most per head (US$9,216 in 2012) of the 166 countries we covered, it ranks 33rd on our outcomes index, behind countries such as Lebanon and Costa Rica.



There is lots of data and tables, but the takehome is UK is 23rd in the list of healthcare outcomes Vs cost per capita, just above Belgium, Greece Chile and Costa Rica. It would seem you get what you pay for.


----------



## sploo

Terry - Somerset":2j2e4g1z said:


> Reading some of the recent posts a few thoughts come to mind.
> 
> Firstly, had the Tories had any intention of privatising or dismantling health care in the UK they would have made far greater progress by now. They have been in government for the last 10 years, and for 17 out of the previous 30 back to the Thatcher era.
> 
> They want to be elected (as all parties do) and know the NHS as a concept is highly valued by the public. So suggesting it is "soldoff" would be a complete vote loser. There may be a limited number at the top of the financial tree - but most Tories value the NHS. To suggest otherwise is to cynically use the NHS as a political point scoring exercise.


Remember that it has to be done covertly; precisely because it would be a vote loser. Much progress has been made, but a major technique is to break something to the degree that people demand it be fixed - then you can finish selling it off as a solution.

This isn't tinfoil hat stuff; there's plenty of information around about the creeping privatisation of NHS services, and to where some of the contracts are going.


----------



## doctor Bob

This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................

Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":3m9biasz said:


> Trainee neophyte":3m9biasz said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........I'm so sorry, I didn't understand the conversation. I thought we were talking about off-shoring but it turns out you wanted a simpler conversation, so here we go:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> “I'm right and you're wrong, I'm big and you're small, and there's nothing you can do about it.”
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/30120-i-m-right-and-you-re-wrong-i-m-big-and-you-re-small
> 
> That's the thrust of what you wanted to say, I take it? I will happily fall on my sword and admit to your being right, if it makes you feel better. Yes, Mike, there is more than one job in the UK that provides value. Several, in fact. We could go as far as to say "many" in troll counting numerology.
> 
> I.
> Was.
> Wrong.
> 
> #-o
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Don't be silly, TN. I gave you two chances to row back from your statement, and you didn't. You doubled-down, as the Americans say (I'm told). This isn't about winning, but about understanding why you would claim all UK jobs were worthless. If the lesson is to not make claims you can't back up, then we're all a winner.
Click to expand...



Hmm. From my side of the conversation, you seized on a throwaway line, completely failed to address anything I was actually trying to say, and patently ignored my attempts to clarify what I thought were the salient points. I wasn't "doubling down" on a trivial bit of hyperbole, and I wasn't trying to assert that every single worker in the UK serves no useful purpose , because that would be so silly as to not even consider contemplating (even though that was what I wrote - I often assume other people know what I am thinking)

So, you think I am making extravagant, overinflated claims, and I think you are being astonishingly pedantic for no purpose. I love the internet - people can completely fail to understand each others positions, despite clearly typing in basic English. Or perhaps it is just me and my inability to make myself understood. It wouldn't be the first time (just ask RogerS )

Either way, you are still right, and I still think it is a trivial and irrelevant point, and I still believe that making things half way around the world just so we won't suffer the pollution is disingenuous, and unsustainable. The good news is that which is unsustainable will not be sustained.


----------



## ColeyS1

doctor Bob":27c3j1yw said:


> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.


Soul destroying isn't it. I just want things to be back to normal. It's like a horrible dream but not knowing when we will wake up from it. Stay strong Bob

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## Blackswanwood

doctor Bob":kra0elvl said:


> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.



Has the landlord seen sense and been prepared to cut you any slack Bob?


----------



## sploo

doctor Bob":1cmljpid said:


> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.


I'm hoping my wife doesn't die due to lack of protective equipment, like quite a few other doctors.

Not dismissing your concerns (which are absolutely valid, and I very much hope things stay afloat) but this is - literally - a life and death topic.


----------



## RobinBHM

doctor Bob":3kc151ff said:


> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.



What you didnt include contingency in your business plans for a worldwide pandemic?
thats awfully shortsighted  

seriously, I hope things work out for you - I cant imagine what plans a business can even make right now, this is a situation that changes day by day. 

the government 80% scheme for workers is pretty good, but a business needs production to recover its overheads.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

profchris":2qhe6swl said:


> In some posters I detect the old "manufacturing good, services bad" fallacy. Services is not a zero sum game.



I can't speak for others, but I most emphatically don't subscribe to the idea "manufacturing good, services bad". I'd rather see a balance of the two.

It isn't always clear-cut what's a service and what's manufacturing. For example, the economists class engineering consultancy as a service, but it can't sustain itself without a steady supply of engineers from manufacturing and construction, and close links with them.

That said, we did go through a period of off-shoring some of our manufacturing capability, and at times of crisis we relearn how useful such capacity can be to a developed nation. World economics are changing, and will change more as a result of the current crisis; it would be good to see one of the outcomes being a re-shoring of some of the lost capacity.

Much the same argument can be applied to other sectors of the economy, too - food supply being one. I gather one economist in the Treasury was seriously suggesting that we didn't need an agricultural sector at all before this crisis, and that we could, like Taiwan, import everything; I'd like to think current events have firmly laid that idea to rest.


----------



## doctor Bob

sploo":37kk56n1 said:


> doctor Bob":37kk56n1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm hoping my wife doesn't die due to lack of protective equipment, like quite a few other doctors.
> 
> Not dismissing your concerns (which are absolutely valid, and I very much hope things stay afloat) but this is - literally - a life and death topic.
Click to expand...


My sister is front line NHS, my parents are 87, my wife is a bad asmatic, I'm aware thank you. I to am hoping my family doesn't die, as I'm sure all front line NHS families are hoping. Your wife has my admiration along with all NHS staff, unfortunately this affects everyone. I'm struggling to understand how historical "blaming" saves the day. We need positivity at present, the media is whipping up a frenzy on purpose, now is not the time, do the blame game later.
Just a while back the negative posts, not necessarily on here, about the government asking for help to produce respirators were cringeworthy "impossible" "don't understand time scales" etc yet business with their hands not tied have risen to the challenge spectacularly.

I'm afraid I really am too tired and anxious to see any reason at this point in time to try and blame defects on *X*. I just want people to get on and do their best, blame can come later as in my opinion it acheives nowt at present.

To answer other questions:
After much haggling, my landlord offered me 25% discount on the next 3 months rent, I was delighed, when he wrote up the new contract he had clawed the money back over the following 9 months, I politely told him he was a penis and to stick it up his rectum.


----------



## MikeG.

sploo":20y7fdem said:


> ......I'm hoping my wife doesn't die.........



Me too. She's really not well.


----------



## Lons

A couple of sobering things today, the first person that I actually know has died. She was the cousin of my next door neighbour who I met a number of times over the years, in her late seventies she and her husband were both tested positive, he has a few health issues but so far is ok whilst she had no known health problems of any note. She felt better after about a week then suddenly struggled to breath and died within just a few hours.

We have a close family friend of many years who is a doctor in Sunderland, well respected, experienced woman in her 40s and whose opinions I trust implicitly, she sent us all a text today and I've copied it word for word except for the word sh*t and only deleted the names.

_*Hi Guys
Just want to update you all. I've been in virtual meeting this afternoon with CCG lead. This for Sunderland but prob will apply to areas outside hotspots of London/B'hm etc. Expected peak 12th April, we are climbing fast, the peak will be to around 25th then if we have a handle will start to decline. I've looked at graphs come from Govt with data extrapolated from Italy/Spain/China. It shows dif with proper isolation & not & expected deaths. Why they don't release to media I don't know to make people isolate. It's going to get very serious here! In Northeast we are short by 700 hosp beds with oxygen. Hosps will be turning away elderly pts with chronic diseases to die at home. As soon as they don't need oxygen pts will be discharged home for GP to pick up the pieces or administer palliative care to free up an oxygen bed. Home to die so oxygen can be given to next patient.
They're opening Nightingale hosp in Sunderland. Pts who have been very poorly / ventilated then survive have developed pulmonary fibrosis of lungs. Today 70 pts on Corvid ward in N/castle & 9 died. Sh*t going to hit the fan in next 1.5 weeks. Please tell all family & friends to stay in & be safe - don't take any risks XXX*_

I have no intention of debating the information she's given us, rather you make up your own minds but she has no agenda apart from trying to keep her friends safe while she knowingly exposes herself and 7 year old son to the virus.


----------



## doctor Bob

MikeG.":140oqex1 said:


> sploo":140oqex1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......I'm hoping my wife doesn't die.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Me too. She's really not well.
Click to expand...


Hope she makes a full recovery Mike .......... sounds awful.


----------



## Rorschach

Have they announced a Nightingale hospital for Sunderland? I thought it was only London.


----------



## sploo

doctor Bob":3mkm1bao said:


> sploo":3mkm1bao said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> doctor Bob":3mkm1bao said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is starting to bring back memories of the brexit thread......................
> 
> Thank god I have too much work to do trying to save my business, and helping parents to get involved this time around.
> 
> 
> 
> I'm hoping my wife doesn't die due to lack of protective equipment, like quite a few other doctors.
> 
> Not dismissing your concerns (which are absolutely valid, and I very much hope things stay afloat) but this is - literally - a life and death topic.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> My sister is front line NHS, my parents are 87, my wife is a bad asmatic, I'm aware thank you. I to am hoping my family doesn't die, as I'm sure all front line NHS families are hoping. Your wife has my admiration along with all NHS staff, unfortunately this affects everyone. I'm struggling to understand how historical "blaming" saves the day. We need positivity at present, the media is whipping up a frenzy on purpose, now is not the time, do the blame game later.
> Just a while back the negative posts, not necessarily on here, about the government asking for help to produce respirators were cringeworthy "impossible" "don't understand time scales" etc yet business with their hands not tied have risen to the challenge spectacularly.
> 
> I'm afraid I really am too tired and anxious to see any reason at this point in time to try and blame defects on *X*. I just want people to get on and do their best, blame can come later as in my opinion it acheives nowt at present.
> 
> To answer other questions:
> After much haggling, my landlord offered me 25% discount on the next 3 months rent, I was delighed, when he wrote up the new contract he had clawed the money back over the following 9 months, I politely told him he was a penis and to stick it up his rectum.
Click to expand...

My worry is that the medics need kit now, not a discussion afterwards. Besides, I'm sure something else will be found to entertain the public after this, so the papers will lose interest in any follow up after while.

Sounds like your landlord is taking the Micheal though. Hardly supportive, even if he has bills to pay himself.


----------



## Lons

Rorschach":21d5muhv said:


> Have they announced a Nightingale hospital for Sunderland? I thought it was only London.


Not confirmed generally though has been reported on local news yesterday however it is happening and I know the location. I've heard there's to be one in Harrogate as well


----------



## FatmanG

Rorschach":21ogkfhq said:


> Have they announced a Nightingale hospital for Sunderland? I thought it was only London.


there is gong to be one in Harrogate North Yorks, theyve been getting the conference centre ready all this week


----------



## doctor Bob

sploo":1ybmpa9y said:


> My worry is that the medics need kit now, not a discussion afterwards. Besides, I'm sure something else will be found to entertain the public after this, so the papers will lose interest in any follow up after while.



Agreed, so what purpose does discussing the privatisation of the NHS through the back door serve at present, will this give your wife kit?


----------



## FatmanG

Lons":221nqkh3 said:


> Rorschach":221nqkh3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Have they announced a Nightingale hospital for Sunderland? I thought it was only London.
> 
> 
> 
> Not confirmed generally though has been reported on local news yesterday however it is happening and I know the location. *I've heard there's to be one in Harrogate as well*
Click to expand...


your right Lons the conference centre. that message youve just posted has scared me to death. 

i got my orders to shield through the post today dated 21st march postie says they are down to delivering only 2 days a week.


----------



## sploo

doctor Bob":1vcc2grs said:


> sploo":1vcc2grs said:
> 
> 
> 
> My worry is that the medics need kit now, not a discussion afterwards. Besides, I'm sure something else will be found to entertain the public after this, so the papers will lose interest in any follow up after while.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed, so what purpose does discussing the privatisation of the NHS through the back door serve at present, will this give your wife kit?
Click to expand...

The driver was underfunding.


----------



## doctor Bob

I hope all high risk punters on here come through unscathed (and everyone else)

My business is my pride and joy but family, friends and lives come first.
The reason we mothballed the business was because we couldn't keep people safe, thought of lots of ways but in reality they were not practicable.

Even if the business goes, I can be fairly happy that I run a good business, slowly built over 16 years, not greedy, no debt, creditors paid up to date (31st March). I can probably run for 6 months with no income, so if I go plenty will go before me.
Strange it seems like a challenge buiness wise rather than a disaster.


----------



## doctor Bob

sploo":s10y0xwb said:


> doctor Bob":s10y0xwb said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sploo":s10y0xwb said:
> 
> 
> 
> My worry is that the medics need kit now, not a discussion afterwards. Besides, I'm sure something else will be found to entertain the public after this, so the papers will lose interest in any follow up after while.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed, so what purpose does discussing the privatisation of the NHS through the back door serve at present, will this give your wife kit?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> The driver was underfunding.
Click to expand...


So do you think with more funding they would have bought 20 x more than necessary ventilators, scrubs, masks, etc and stored them?
Even in mock senarios the estimate on ventilators was way under the requirement now.
The papers would have had a field day "4% of NHS budget blown on unused ventilators"

I don't think they would have. 
If I'd known they was a pandemic coming in 3 years I wouldn't have bought an Esprit but we are where we are.


----------



## Cheshirechappie

There's only so much dosh to go round the public services. Good cases can be made for more funding for education, environment (flood defences?), defence, welfare, Home Office (more Police on the beat?) an =d pretty well everything else. As is always the case. Raise taxes too high, the economy slows and GDP falls, borrow too much and later generations must pay. There's always debate about how the cake is cut, who gets the biggest slice.

End of the day, under any stripe of government, the budgets for each department are set, and they have to get on with it and deliver the best service they can with what they've got. Everybody would like more, but there isn't more. Never been any different, never will be.


----------



## Jake

doctor Bob":29te6jhl said:


> The reason we mothballed the business was because we couldn't keep people safe, thought of lots of ways but in reality they were not practicable



From what you've written you've acted admirably at every stage, unlike your short-sighted landlord.

PS, might consider a slight change of name of your current company and registering a new one in your current name. No shame in a bit of phoenixing in this environment if you have to.


----------



## sploo

doctor Bob":1utqkw6d said:


> So do you think with more funding they would have bought 20 x more than necessary ventilators, scrubs, masks, etc and stored them?
> Even in mock senarios the estimate on ventilators was way under the requirement now.
> The papers would have had a field day "4% of NHS budget blown on unused ventilators"
> 
> I don't think they would have.
> If I'd known they was a pandemic coming in 3 years I wouldn't have bought an Esprit but we are where we are.


The underfunding is a wider issue than just now, but...

Ventilators no (I've said that... somewhere in this thread). PPE, probably. As in - this slow moving train has been running for months (it's not like we got hit out of nowhere - there was time to get stocks). A UK study on exactly this sort of scenario a few years back raised these issues with regard to the NHS.

Granted, as someone else has pointed out; lack of PPE is likely more about lack of management than funding.


----------



## rafezetter

Deadeye":2a3kybje said:


> beech1948":2a3kybje said:
> 
> 
> 
> Ah the liberals reply. How quaint. Behind my current annoyance is some 35 yrs of doing business with the Chinese, most of Asia and the so called West.
> 
> Try doing business with a country which does not recognise my right to own my product through patents or copyright. A country which feels it can just copy and use my software for local companies. Yeah been there and tried that. Oddly the only country with the same approach as the West is Japan. Where what they sign up to is what they deliver. You just need to comprehend the rules of the game and the consequences of the desired outcome. China not so much.
> 
> China a parasite.....time to look at the facts.
> 
> China caused C19 to exist through poor animal welfare and negligence..true
> China allowed many chinese to visit with the rest of the world after that for 3 months
> China has tried to suppress the knowledge of the existence of C19
> China continues to lie and obfuscate to throw the blame elsewhere
> Chinas only interest is to prevent China becoming a hated state
> China has lied about the size and volume of C19 dead
> China yesterday issued a PR notice that Britain had failed its responsibilities through inaction
> China has blamed a military US delegation in October for introducing the C19 to China
> China has leveraged its manufacturing cost advantages to deskill the West.
> China has used the C19 vacuum of attention to seize South China sea gas supplies
> 
> So fine you guys who have replied laugh your heads off and try to put down the facts BUT....it will come to pass that the UK Government will be faced with doing business with China on Chinese terms in the near future. I'd like to think they would not but I do know how politicos are so have no expectations.
> 
> The low cost argument is now a moot point. Chinese wages had risen quite high, goods are still cheapish but the gap is closing. Chinese manufacture is not all hightech and much that they make could be made here. After all the transport costs alone add significantly to their cost base. A few UK universities have explored this and tried to encourage UK manufacturing to pick up the ability to compete with high tech manufacturing systems but to no avail.
> 
> My electronics are made in Poland and Portugal. My critical electronic stuff is made in Stevenage. Cases are from Malaysia. When I have asked about complete UK manufacture the numbers returned have been only 13% more than Poland or Portugal inc transport. I have come to believe that high tech manufacturing would close that gap but who will make the investment needed to get it started. Not a Brit.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Nasty post. Xenophobic and badly informed.
> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man. You might recall that a bat enthusiast died of rabies here a couple of years back.
> But, hey, haters gotta hate.
Click to expand...


Ok Deadeye - you have attempted to refute the first point made - although all I'm seeing is semantic differences - because "caused it to exist" covers an entire gamut of issues and he clearly didn't mean "they created it" which is all you've clung on to to refute it, but anyway...

now refute the rest, and maybe I'll pay attention....

Otherwise it looks to me like you're saying "pictures or it didn't happen" which in this context is pretty childish. I'd warn you of overreaching if I thought you'd heed it.


----------



## rafezetter

RobinBHM":37m92a87 said:


> _Deadeye wrote:_
> 
> 
> 
> Nasty post. Xenophobic and badly informed.
> For example, China did not "cause c19 to exist".
> The virus existed and exists, very probably in bats. It bridged to man. You might recall that a bat enthusiast died of rabies here a couple of years back.
> But, hey, haters gotta hate
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I agree.
> 
> It really is not helpful to go down the blame route. This country has seen far too much ramping up of division and hatred, we do not need more. Trump has been calling it the China virus to incite hatred and deflect from his own failure.
> 
> *I would say the West should be more fearful of Russia -they have spent years spreading misinformation and lies, causing damage to our democracy and still is.*
Click to expand...


Misinformation and lies doesn't kill people by tranfer of touch, never has, never will.

Are you SERIOUSLY saying that the hostile cyber actions Russia (and probably others) have been undertaking in recent years has been more damaging to the UK and other democracies than this pandemic which has killed tens of thousands of people, crippled many (most?) small "average joe" businesses like Doctor Bobs worldwide and will propably kick off another recession as the ongoing effects continue?

really.

I avoid the papers largely because it's depressing stuff, but even I know your statement doesn't hold any water when compared to our current reality.

Far as Trump is concerned - well Covid 19 DID come from China, the first cases were there, and as Lons said above about thier wet markets which is completely true.

Humans have known for a long time that many animals carry diseases, and we've just been lucky only a few have made a cross species jump, but all it takes is the right conditions.

and China DID try to suppress the information of it's existance it right up to the point they couldn't anymore.

I can't say for certain, but I would imagine (I hope) that those people in the right places have probably been checking to see if local bat populations in other countries are also carriers.

if it proves that bats in other countries are also carriers then your point of "not blaming China" is fair, but until such time, no-one can refute China is holding the smoking gun.

and you'd find it hard to refute that so much of the "anti China" feeling is created by the actions of the Chinese Govt and corporations.

Saying "we shouldn't hate on China" is like trying to suggest people shouldn't be angry at a proven serial killer. Facts is facts mate. Simple as.

Edit: two words came to me while making a coffee - "Tiananmen Square" (had to google the spelling admittedly)
*mic drop*


----------



## Jake

doctor Bob":2r1g4vgr said:


> So do you think with more funding they would have bought 20 x more than necessary ventilators, scrubs, masks, etc and stored them?
> Even in mock senarios the estimate on ventilators was way under the requirement now.
> The papers would have had a field day "4% of NHS budget blown on unused ventilators"
> 
> I don't think they would have.
> If I'd known they was a pandemic coming in 3 years I wouldn't have bought an Esprit but we are where we are.



I agree with all of that. We could've been better prepared, maybe we should have been, we hopefully will be next time there is a next time, but then again many of things are date coded and so on.

However, that's precisely why I am angry they wasted 6 weeks at least pursuing a flawed policy which would have been revealed as unworkable if the underlying modelling had been checked properly in times which were less pressured than now. Valuable weeks lost in not really exerting containment effort, valuable weeks lost in establishing new capabilities for mitigation, then a valuable week or two lost in triggering lock down (saving face by moving slowly). More significantly, going forwards, by all appearances they have not changed their original plan to try to manage within surge capacity, which the modelling says kills 250k, but they are still pretending the death toll is going to be in the low 1000s or 10000s. If you do not criticise a government pursuing a path like that, you fail as badly as a society as if you fail positively to pursue solutions.


----------



## sploo

Jake":9bfr329x said:


> However, that's precisely why I am angry they wasted 6 weeks at least pursuing a flawed policy which would have been revealed as unworkable if the underlying modelling had been checked properly in times which were less pressured than now. Valuable weeks lost in not really exerting containment effort, valuable weeks lost in establishing new capabilities for mitigation, then a valuable week or two lost in triggering lock down (saving face by moving slowly). More significantly, going forwards, by all appearances they have not changed their original plan to try to manage within surge capacity, which the modelling says kills 250k, but they are still pretending the death toll is going to be in the low 1000s or 10000s. If you do not criticise a government pursuing a path like that, you fail as badly as a society as if you fail positively to pursue solutions.


I'm aware that there are some doctors who are particularly angry about this; though I must admit don't know the background as to why the original policy was herd immunity. As a layman, that route did at least sound plausible, and the only "weasel" stuff was in hiding the u-turn to a lockdown by claiming the science had changed (nothing particularly new in political circles).

I assume then that those "in the know" knew all along that the herd immunity plan wouldn't work (and would be dangerous). If that's the case then from where did the government get that plan in the first place? I assume they must have had some advice to take them in that direction as it doesn't sound like something you'd just come up with off the cuff.


----------



## RobinBHM

Razetter wrote:


> Are you SERIOUSLY saying that the hostile cyber actions Russia (and probably others) have been undertaking in recent years has been more damaging to the UK and other democracies than this pandemic which has killed tens of thousands of people, crippled many (most?) small "average joe" businesses like Doctor Bobs worldwide and will propably kick off another recession as the ongoing effects continue?



non sequitur. 

I didnt say cyber actions were worse than this pandemic

The Chinese didnt deliberately set out to infect the world. I was comparing the misinformation of China and Russia.

Russia has been working hard to create division in the West and its been successful in the UK.


----------



## Andy Kev.

"Russia has been working hard to create division in the West and its been successful in the UK."

I think this translates roughly as, "A referendum and an election didn't go the way I like, two facts with which I can't cope because according to all the theory I've ever understood, once the masses understand what people like me are on about they will come flocking to our banner in their millions. Because I can't cope I need an explanation and the Russian bear provides me with one."

Now let's take a slightly more grown up, slightly less hysterical view of current affairs.

Division i.e. difference of opinion is a natural part of human affairs. People are heterogenous and so societies inevitably exhibit a degree of pluralism. The political systems of societies have to be able to cope with that pluralism. If you look at history, there seem to be two broad approaches of coping strategy:

a. Stamp on pluralism. Absolute monarchies, dictatorships, socialism, fascism. They all fail in the end. That doesn't mean that they don't reappear or try to reappear. Dictatorships and socialism seem to be the most politically vampiric i.e. undead but very bad for humanity as they will keep trying to make comebacks.

b. Embrace the fact of pluralism and have a system that can cope with it. The best system which so far has emerged to this end is democracy, bringing with it as it does freedom of speech, opinion etc. etc.

Don't like the clowns who are governing you? Not a problem: persuade other people of your stand point and if you can do that well enough, at the next election they are on their way out. Thus we can do away with the idea of revolution (violent or otherwise) because we can change governments without having to pick up rifles.

Democracy makes few demands of a nation state: governments must submit themselves to the electorate after a certain period in office and often before that period is up. Elections must be conducted in an uncorrupt way and the ballot must be secret. All must abide by the result of the election.

You, RobinBHM, clearly cannot manage the latter which in my opinion makes you a bit of a disgrace and I'm mightily glad that it is highly unlikely that people like you will ever get the upper hand in our country. And the reason that you won't get the upper hand is that democracy has become so deeply rooted in the UK that the people can be more or less said to have an instinct for it. That said, it is famously a delicate flower and it must be protected and if necessary fought for. "All that is necessary for evil to prosper is that men of good will do nothing."


----------



## DrPhill

View of the governments response. I am not sure that I am in a position to agree or disagree, because most information I have been given is likely biased. But this is just one more plausible explanation. People at the top are planning for politics after the virus......
The coronavirus letter you’ve just been sent by Johnson is a lie


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Andy Kev.":22oe2oml said:


> "Russia has been working hard to create division in the West and its been successful in the UK."
> 
> I think this translates roughly as, "A referendum and an election didn't go the way I like, two facts with which I can't cope because according to all the theory I've ever understood, once the masses understand what people like me are on about they will come flocking to our banner in their millions. Because I can't cope I need an explanation and the Russian bear provides me with one."
> 
> Now let's take a slightly more grown up, slightly less hysterical view of current affairs.
> 
> Division i.e. difference of opinion is a natural part of human affairs. People are heterogenous and so societies inevitably exhibit a degree of pluralism. The political systems of societies have to be able to cope with that pluralism. If you look at history, there seem to be two broad approaches of coping strategy:
> 
> a. Stamp on pluralism. Absolute monarchies, dictatorships, socialism, fascism. They all fail in the end. That doesn't mean that they don't reappear or try to reappear. Dictatorships and socialism seem to be the most politically vampiric i.e. undead but very bad for humanity as they will keep trying to make comebacks.
> 
> b. Embrace the fact of pluralism and have a system that can cope with it. The best system which so far has emerged to this end is democracy, bringing with it as it does freedom of speech, opinion etc. etc.
> 
> Don't like the clowns who are governing you? Not a problem: persuade other people of your stand point and if you can do that well enough, at the next election they are on their way out. Thus we can do away with the idea of revolution (violent or otherwise) because we can change governments without having to pick up rifles.
> 
> Democracy makes few demands of a nation state: governments must submit themselves to the electorate after a certain period in office and often before that period is up. Elections must be conducted in an uncorrupt way and the ballot must be secret. All must abide by the result of the election.
> 
> You, RobinBHM, clearly cannot manage the latter which in my opinion makes you a bit of a disgrace and I'm mightily glad that it is highly unlikely that people like you will ever get the upper hand in our country. And the reason that you won't get the upper hand is that democracy has become so deeply rooted in the UK that the people can be more or less said to have an instinct for it. That said, it is famously a delicate flower and it must be protected and if necessary fought for. "All that is necessary for evil to prosper is that men of good will do nothing."





> The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. Thomas Jefferson



The US Constitution was written by terrorists/revolutionaries/freedom fighters, which is why they went with the 2nd amendment, second only to freedom of speech. They were convinced that, at some point, their shiny new Republic would return to a despotic form of government, and "The People" would need to take up arms to sort it out. Hence the gun ownership that all other nations consider eccentric bordering on insane. Ironically the USA has about the most corrupt form of government you can have and still be classed as a "democracy", so that all went swimmingly well.

There is a sudden desire in most western countries to blame the Chinese for the outbreak. This is a concerted effort, and is basically propaganda to shift blame from incompetent government, and also to ramp up the hate, because who doesn't like a good war? Here's a fun quote attributed to Herman Goering:


> Naturally, the common people don't want war ... but after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy, and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in every country.



I don't know if he said it or not, but it is a fair estimation of how the system works. The important bit is "All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger."

Do a search, using the search engine of your choice for "China Covid19 lies", and make sure you set the result to show the last 24 hours. There is a definite push to create a narrative, so we can have our 1984 style "2 minutes of hate".

Having waded through the vitriol, have a look at 
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/c ... .html#more

It's another view.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

DrPhill":3p7h8v1x said:


> View of the governments response. I am not sure that I am in a position to agree or disagree, because most information I have been given is likely biased. But this is just one more plausible explanation. People at the top are planning for politics after the virus......
> The coronavirus letter you’ve just been sent by Johnson is a lie



Japan, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan all border/are next door to China, and yet have much better approach and outcomes than the west, despite much higher levels of contact. What did they do differently to Europe and USA? If the Chinese lied about everything, how come the neighbours knew what to do? How come the best, most sophisticated intelligence network in the world (Five Eyes) completely failed to find out what was going on in what is ostensibly a competitor nation, that we don't like very much? 

And then there is this sleaziness: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dianne ... sh-reports



> Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California and three of her Senate colleagues reported selling off stocks worth millions of dollars in the days before the coronavirus outbreak crashed the market, according to reports.
> 
> The data is listed on a U.S. Senate website containing financial disclosures from Senate members.



(It's Fox News, so it must be true!)


----------



## MikeG.

doctor Bob":230tegt7 said:


> MikeG.":230tegt7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sploo":230tegt7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......I'm hoping my wife doesn't die.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Me too. She's really not well.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Hope she makes a full recovery Mike .......... sounds awful.
Click to expand...


Thanks Bob. Yes, it is......


----------



## Andy Kev.

TN:

_The US Constitution was written by terrorists/revolutionaries/freedom fighters, which is why they went with the 2nd amendment, second only to freedom of speech. They were convinced that, at some point, their shiny new Republic would return to a despotic form of government, and "The People" would need to take up arms to sort it out. Hence the gun ownership that all other nations consider eccentric bordering on insane. Ironically the USA has about the most corrupt form of government you can have and still be classed as a "democracy", so that all went swimmingly well._

The US revolution happened because they were denied one of the essentials of democracy and they summed up their grievance as "No taxation without representation." They've not had a revolution since. I'm afraid that their gun laws are their business and as long as enough people don't want a change, they will stay. I'm not sure how corrupt their govt. is (although clearly a lot of dodgy things go on) but what bothers me more is how they conduct their presidential elections. No money = no candidacy. If I were American I would campaign for presidential electoral campaign budgets to be limited to $1,000,000 per candidate.

All that said, their system has meant a lot of prosperity for them, at least in national terms.

_There is a sudden desire in most western countries to blame the Chinese for the outbreak. This is a concerted effort, and is basically propaganda to shift blame from incompetent government, and also to ramp up the hate, because who doesn't like a good war? _

China can't be blamed for the fact of the virus but it can be blamed for its initial response which was typical of totalitarian governments, as were the subsequent counter measures (as I posted a few pages back). We have adopted a modified form of the latter but at least we can be sure that they are an emergency-only exception. China probably does represent a danger for the world. It is a rising empire and one day it will fall but how to limit the damage it will do in the meantime? Economic measures will probably be the best answer. I've been alarmed by China for some years and all along western govts. have been saying that we should snuggle up to them, a policy which IMO is only asking for trouble.


----------



## FatmanG

as far am i'm aware China has never waged a war against anyone else i'm sure to be corrected if thats wrong. They strike me as intelligent hard working people who offend very few and just get on with their own business. there are enough people in china to overthrow the system if they wished. it strikes me as the criticism of them from the u.s.a etc is jealousy and fear because they are no longer the big man country and they fear a russian - chinese alliance. its always been that way. personally i think the world has more to fear from the usa than from china. 
the chinese govt made a mistake trying to cover the initial problem up however they have made up for it somewhat by cracking the genetic code of the virus and sharing with the world.

EDIT: I would rather china find the cure than the US as the big pharma companies will charge the absolute earth for it and cost the NHS far more than anything else


----------



## Woody2Shoes

sploo":1dlpfv5y said:


> Terry - Somerset":1dlpfv5y said:
> 
> 
> 
> Reading some of the recent posts a few thoughts come to mind.
> 
> Firstly, had the Tories had any intention of privatising or dismantling health care in the UK they would have made far greater progress by now. They have been in government for the last 10 years, and for 17 out of the previous 30 back to the Thatcher era.
> 
> They want to be elected (as all parties do) and know the NHS as a concept is highly valued by the public. So suggesting it is "soldoff" would be a complete vote loser. There may be a limited number at the top of the financial tree - but most Tories value the NHS. To suggest otherwise is to cynically use the NHS as a political point scoring exercise.
> 
> 
> 
> Remember that it has to be done covertly; precisely because it would be a vote loser. Much progress has been made, but a major technique is to break something to the degree that people demand it be fixed - then you can finish selling it off as a solution.
> 
> This isn't tinfoil hat stuff; there's plenty of information around about the creeping privatisation of NHS services, and to where some of the contracts are going.
Click to expand...

The process of 'hollowing out', if you want to call it that, is most self-evident when you look at NHS dentistry....


----------



## Andy Kev.

FatmanG":14mhumqt said:


> as far am i'm aware China has never waged a war against anyone else i'm sure to be corrected if thats wrong. They strike me as intelligent hard working people who offend very few and just get on with their own business. there are enough people in china to overthrow the system if they wished. it strikes me as the criticism of them from the u.s.a etc is jealousy and fear because they are no longer the big man country and they fear a russian - chinese alliance. its always been that way. personally i think the world has more to fear from the usa than from china.
> the chinese govt made a mistake trying to cover the initial problem up however they have made up for it somewhat by cracking the genetic code of the virus and sharing with the world.


With all due respect I would suggest that you may wish to adopt a slightly more differentiated approach when thinking of China.

I'm sure that the Chinese people have a range of virtues and vices to match those of any other cultural grouping anywhere in the world i.e. they're probably not too much different from anyone else.

However, China as a nation is effectively a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party, a fact which instantly makes it clear how difficult if not impossible it would be for the Chinese people to overthrow the system if they wished. Add to that the fact that the approach pursued by the party has in recent decades led to a considerable improvement in living standards for many Chinese and that it also identifies itself as a patriotic force. This means that it will be quite a while until it is overthrown but if history teaches us anything, that day will probably come

The Chinese have never enjoyed the freedoms that democracy brings and it would be interesting to see what they would make of their country. As it is, the country i.e. the CCP is utterly ruthless and driven solely by selfish gain flavoured with a bit of imperialism e.g. claiming the South China Sea as sovereign waters and even going to the extent of creating artificial islands to support that claim.

One of the cleverest propaganda victories of recent years is IMO the degree to which anti-Americanism has been on the rise particularly in European countries. FWIW I think the roots of that are in France (de Gaulle has a lot to answer for in historical terms) but naturally it serves the interests of other countries too. Trump may in his own way as big a tit as de Gaulle was in his way but the USA is ultimately on the side of all the liberties which have so long been struggled for and which can be traced back to the signing of Magna Carta.


----------



## RobinBHM

TN wrote:


> Japan, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan all border/are next door to China, and yet have much better approach and outcomes than the west, despite much higher levels of contact. What did they do differently to Europe and USA? If the Chinese lied about everything, how come the neighbours knew what to do?



The neighbours knew what to do because they learnt from SARS 1.
Also those countries acted fast.

President Xi phoned Boric on 16th Feb and told him what he had to do. That advice wasnt acted on.


----------



## Blackswanwood

I think the title of this thread should be changed to something that more accurately reflects what is has become due to the balance of the posts. How about "Critique of worldwide political systems and who can we blame" or we could just have "Competition for who can have the last word on something that doesn't matter at the current time"?

In the meantime my heart goes out to those of you who are currently impacted beyond inconvenience with Covid19 i.e. with loved ones ill, the worry of being in a high risk group, needing to keep a business afloat and/or with friends/family on the front line (whether it's right to call them a hero or not!).


----------



## FatmanG

Andy Kev.":1iekdgpp said:


> FatmanG":1iekdgpp said:
> 
> 
> 
> as far am i'm aware China has never waged a war against anyone else i'm sure to be corrected if thats wrong. They strike me as intelligent hard working people who offend very few and just get on with their own business. there are enough people in china to overthrow the system if they wished. it strikes me as the criticism of them from the u.s.a etc is jealousy and fear because they are no longer the big man country and they fear a russian - chinese alliance. its always been that way. personally i think the world has more to fear from the usa than from china.
> the chinese govt made a mistake trying to cover the initial problem up however they have made up for it somewhat by cracking the genetic code of the virus and sharing with the world.
> 
> 
> 
> With all due respect I would suggest that you may wish to adopt a slightly more differentiated approach when thinking of China.
> 
> I'm sure that the Chinese people have a range of virtues and vices to match those of any other cultural grouping anywhere in the world i.e. they're probably not too much different from anyone else.
> 
> However, China as a nation is effectively a wholly owned subsidiary of the Chinese Communist Party, a fact which instantly makes it clear how difficult if not impossible it would be for the Chinese people to overthrow the system if they wished. Add to that the fact that the approach pursued by the party has in recent decades led to a considerable improvement in living standards for many Chinese and that it also identifies itself as a patriotic force. This means that it will be quite a while until it is overthrown but if history teaches us anything, that day will probably come
> 
> The Chinese have never enjoyed the freedoms that democracy brings and it would be interesting to see what they would make of their country. As it is, the country i.e. the CCP is utterly ruthless and driven solely by selfish gain flavoured with a bit of imperialism e.g. claiming the South China Sea as sovereign waters and even going to the extent of creating artificial islands to support that claim.
> 
> One of the cleverest propaganda victories of recent years is IMO the degree to which anti-Americanism has been on the rise particularly in European countries. FWIW I think the roots of that are in France (de Gaulle has a lot to answer for in historical terms) but naturally it serves the interests of other countries too. Trump may in his own way as big a tit as de Gaulle was in his way but the USA is ultimately on the side of all the liberties which have so long been struggled for and which can be traced back to the signing of Magna Carta.
Click to expand...


With all due respect Andy your view of the USA may need to be adopted. Their political system is not really a choice either. China you have the CCP in the U.S you have democrats or republicans. The candidates you have to choose from are only there because of the money they have backing them and who is behind the money. As far as I can see China has done very little to hurt the world. They are hard working innovative people. History is littered with U.S led wars, propagandas and deceptions. The USA is a big bully imo and now it has opposition as a true economic force with a army and array of weapons to match they dont like it. I see Chinese investment throughout the UK Scunthorpe, Sunderland,Sheffield,HInkley,5g etc etc while the Chinese strive to improve technology and industry the US has lost its way and are no longer the power that it thinks it is, the blame game is possibly a smokescreen to shield this fact from its own people.


----------



## nev

STOP.

1.woodworking forum
2.politics
3.pointless 
4.woodworking forum.


----------



## FatmanG

Blackswanwood":qpw5vya2 said:


> *I think the title of this thread should be changed to something that more accurately reflects what is has become due to the balance of the posts. How about "Critique of worldwide political systems and who can we blame" or we could just have "Competition for who can have the last word on something that doesn't matter at the current time"?*
> 
> In the meantime my heart goes out to those of you who are currently impacted beyond inconvenience with Covid19 i.e. with loved ones ill, the worry of being in a high risk group, needing to keep a business afloat and/or with friends/family on the front line (whether it's right to call them a hero or not!).



Im surprised its still being allowed t go on mate. I thought politics was banned. I posted previously this thread has turned into "COVID19 Who can we blame" some of the stuff posted on this thread has been shameful imo especially the they knew what they signed up for comments.


----------



## Andy Kev.

nev":111dxu2g said:


> STOP.
> 
> 1.woodworking forum
> 2.politics
> 3.pointless
> 4.woodworking forum.


A timely reminder.

It's going to be difficult to police though because as soon as someone mentions government policy (the mentioning not being a political thing) it will attract a usually political response. There are simply too many political axes to grind. If, as an exception and this is almost as exceptional as the B word, a thread for the politics of the virus were to be established as a one off, those of us who are more interested in the virology and the practicalities of dealing with it but who have difficulty in not rising to the political bait, would be able to continue the discussion as originally intended while not going into the political thread. I know I wouldn't.


----------



## nev

Its quite simple really.
If you want to discuss what_ you_ are doing about the current situation, _your_ situation, how it is affecting _you_ then please carry on.

If you want to talk pointlessly about who is to blame , who is doing or not doing what, what should have been done (in your experience as the leader of a country) then take it elsewhere. That is just a pointless attempt at proving your knowledge and opinion is better than everyone else's and does nothing but wind people up.


----------



## RogerS

Very well-researched piece on TV this morning regarding home deliveries. Basically forget being over-70. Forget it if you have mild asthma. You need to have one of these illnesses to qualify and this website is the ONLY route to getting on the supermarket priority list for home deliveries.

https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable


----------



## Rorschach

nev":54umaoog said:


> STOP.
> 
> 1.woodworking forum
> 2.politics
> 3.pointless
> 4.woodworking forum.



Agree with point 2.
However this is the off topic part of the forum, so being pointless and not about woodworking is kind of the point


----------



## nev

and there's always someone 




Rorschach":3sv6y7re said:


> nev":3sv6y7re said:
> 
> 
> 
> STOP.
> 
> 1.woodworking forum
> 2.politics
> 3.pointless
> 4.woodworking forum.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agree with point 2.
> However this is the off topic part of the forum, so being pointless and not about woodworking is kind of the point
Click to expand...


----------



## stuartpaul

MikeG.":2ok73xbm said:


> sploo":2ok73xbm said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......I'm hoping my wife doesn't die.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Me too. She's really not well.
Click to expand...

Quite. Had the paramedics out to my wife last night.

I keep hoping for an improvement but it's awfully slow in coming.


----------



## DrPhill

Here is an interesting graphical tool developed at Oxford university.... it helps to explain the reasons for the social isolation and distancing policy we are all, hopefully, pursuing:

http://epidemicforecasting.org


----------



## FatmanG

RogerS":301xff2i said:


> Very well-researched piece on TV this morning regarding home deliveries. Basically forget being over-70. Forget it if you have mild asthma. You need to have one of these illnesses to qualify and this website is the ONLY route to getting on the supermarket priority list for home deliveries.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable



im registered there roger however they just send you a local number to call they offer you someone to collect your meds or do your shopping however if you have only card and no cash then they offer you a food parcel no mention of priority supermarket list.


----------



## Andy Kev.

stuartpaul":10t9ombu said:


> MikeG.":10t9ombu said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> sploo":10t9ombu said:
> 
> 
> 
> ......I'm hoping my wife doesn't die.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Me too. She's really not well.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Quite. Had the paramedics out to my wife last night.
> 
> I keep hoping for an improvement but it's awfully slow in coming.
Click to expand...

I do wish you and your wife all the best and as swift as possible a recovery for her.


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":3awfmprk said:


> RogerS":3awfmprk said:
> 
> 
> 
> Very well-researched piece on TV this morning regarding home deliveries. Basically forget being over-70. Forget it if you have mild asthma. You need to have one of these illnesses to qualify and this website is the ONLY route to getting on the supermarket priority list for home deliveries.
> 
> https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus-extremely-vulnerable
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> im registered there roger however they just send you a local number to call they offer you someone to collect your meds or do your shopping however if you have only card and no cash then they offer you a food parcel no mention of priority supermarket list.
Click to expand...


Two separate issues there. The first - what you've experienced is as it is now and will continue. But the second - and for many just a tad important - is, as I wrote in the post, this list will be passed onto the supermarkets. No idea when. But the important thing is to be on that list.


----------



## FatmanG

thanks i didnt know that


----------



## MusicMan

One feels so powerless, and saying that our thoughts are with you is a copout. But know that you will have all the support you can get on this forum, Mike, and all in a similar position.


----------



## Droogs

The list is for England only the other home countries have separate links 

links page here

https://coronavirus-vulnerable-people.s ... le-england


----------



## MikeG.

RobinBHM":35bn3vxz said:


> does anybody have any thoughts about how the testing should be done?..........



Why would you ask us, Robin? Why would you have any thoughts on the matter? Are you a virologist? Are we virologists, or epidemiologists? This isn't a subject for idle speculation by those who know nothing of the specialisms involved. This is for our world leading medical researchers and so on. You may as well ask for our speculation on the way SE Asian jungle fowl react to stress hormones, for instance. The only possible outcome is to stir up heat whilst shedding no light. The world in which everyone thinks they have a valid viewpoint on all sorts of subjects of which they have precisely zero knowledge is the world of internet tittle tattle, and nothing whatever to do with reality.


----------



## RobinBHM

MikeG.":13ztrgyl said:


> RobinBHM":13ztrgyl said:
> 
> 
> 
> does anybody have any thoughts about how the testing should be done?..........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Why would you ask us, Robin? Why would you have any thoughts on the matter? Are you a virologist? Are we virologists, or epidemiologists? This isn't a subject for idle speculation by those who know nothing of the specialisms involved. This is for our world leading medical researchers and so on. You may as well ask for our speculation on the way SE Asian jungle fowl react to stress hormones, for instance. The only possible outcome is to stir up heat whilst shedding no light. The world in which everyone thinks they have a valid viewpoint on all sorts of subjects of which they have precisely zero knowledge is the world of internet tittle tattle, and nothing whatever to do with reality.
Click to expand...


I don't understand the reason for the confrontational response. 
Why so aggressive?
I think you need to calm down a bit.

what you are saying is you don't think it is acceptable for anybody to discuss, debate or express an opinion on anything unless they are a world leading expert.

In any case the premise of your argument is wrong. The purpose of debate is not simply to express uninformed opinions, it is the opportunity for a group of people to bring forward their own research and insight to share for wider discussion -much of which will originate from the world leading experts

There are many extremely intelligent people contributing to this thread, any number of those may have an insight into the testing regime.


----------



## MikeG.

RobinBHM":2oua5mg4 said:


> .......I don't understand the reason for the confrontational response.
> Why so aggressive?
> I think you need to calm down a bit...........



Could you highlight the words in my post which you think are aggressive or confrontational?

Then perhaps instead of questioning my attitude you might consider answering the question. What possible insight could we give into designing a testing programme or interpreting the results? In the meantime, I'm really interested in your views into the fluid dynamics inside gas turbines, because I worry that the experts might not have considered the differing thermal environments in which they have to operate.


----------



## Jake

Best of luck to those struggling to shake this off.

Taking a slightly more gentle approach to interpreting Robin's post, he may be asking if anyone has anything informative to contribute gleaned from Guinea Fowl (or whatever) experts, as opposed to their own theoretical musings.

Edit: oh sorry, I see he then said this himself.


----------



## AES

I have to say that apart from wishing MikeG and his family "get well soon" - plus any other members affected of course - (as MM says, those are totally inadequate words to express a sincere wish/hope), I've decided to bow out of this thread.

It's already got rather near to the "state" of that infamous "B" thread that we had a while back, but with the help of some IMO sensible moderation, plus the absence of our much missed (NOT!) "Resident Troll", it hasn't quite lowered itself to that level - despite the attempts of several "Jacob wannabees" - not yet anyway.

While I do appreciate the value of informed debate, on here as anywhere else, there are IMO some subjects which are so complex that those who aren't trained in whatever specialisation we're discussing actually hold "opinions and ideas" which are, to all intents and purposes, quite valueless. Such expressions of opinion are actually either based on the 99% of drivel that can be picked up by anyone on "the media"; and/or on a a mixture of pre-existing prejudices - mainly political of course - held by the individual poster.

As I've already said, I see precisely NIL purpose in discussing "why are where we where we are now?"; NOR comparing one particular country's responses/lack thereof with wherever "home" is for us all now. As also said before, I don't see this as a matter for comparing the number of Gold medals "we've" won (Olympics), or the number of goals scored by "our" World Cup football team.

And sorry to say, some of the ideas expressed here about the "value" of the NHS compared with other "privatised" health systems are clearly based purely on hearsay and prejudice, NOT on practical experience - to the extent that they're just not worth commenting on. 

This whole thread has become a complete waste of time and energy IMO, and not only does it do "us" no good at all - arguably, even some harm from the depression standpoint - but also will NOT change a single thing in the real world. So why bother?

As someone has also already said, the whole thread is just going round and round in circles and just isn't getting anywhere 

So as above, I've now unsubscribed from this thread, and will now stick to the more "useful" threads on here - even the "A bit of calm" thread has only "degenerated" into gardening stuff (and I NEVER thought I'd ever find THAT at least "acceptable")! ;-)

Have fun all, see you all elsewhere no doubt - and as above, all the best to anyone who's actually contracted this miserable disease (or unfortunately will do so).


----------



## MusicMan

Yes, there are plenty of highly intelligent members here. If they feel that they can seriously contribute, they will surely be offering their suggestions and services through their learned societies, universities, companies etc. (as I am myself) not through a woodworking forum. I agree with MikeG and I don't intend to be confrontational either.


----------



## Droogs

A well informed interview held by Joe Rogen yesterday with a leading US epidemiologist working on respiratory vaccines, in fact the Dean of the US tropical medicines uni

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU


----------



## sploo

Droogs":1sjhz4dx said:


> A well informed interview held by Joe Rogen yesterday with a leading US epidemiologist working on respiratory vaccines, in fact the Dean of the US tropical medicines uni
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU


Got it running in the background. About 40m through. Very good isn't it.


----------



## D_W

MikeG.":37xlxiw0 said:


> RobinBHM":37xlxiw0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......I don't understand the reason for the confrontational response.
> Why so aggressive?
> I think you need to calm down a bit...........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Could you highlight the words in my post which you think are aggressive or confrontational?
> 
> Then perhaps instead of questioning my attitude you might consider answering the question. What possible insight could we give into designing a testing programme or interpreting the results? In the meantime, I'm really interested in your views into the fluid dynamics inside gas turbines, because I worry that the experts might not have considered the differing thermal environments in which they have to operate.
Click to expand...


The implication is that insight will come from here and go into the outside world? When has that happened?

You would only need someone introduced to statistics to suppose something workable for testing, but it would not have been done at this point not because it's not legitimate, but because the testing criteria thus far have been designed to match the number of tests available. There are deaths in italy not even being tested. My point would be that I could propose something pretty effective in terms of testing if the number of tests was actually large enough to cover more than symptomatic and exposed individuals. 

But what would be the point?

We actually had some randomized testing here locally to determine the level of community spread, and it tests as a low amount here. Nearly all of the positive results have come from people with a known exposure. But that's here, and New York City would be much different. 

There are a lot of different angles people want to take with the supposition about who gets tested and how (from folks decrying the lack of knowledge about positive people spreading more to others who just want to say "see, look how many people have tested positive, it's not that deadly"). It's not a pointless thing to discuss, but it's a pointless thing to discuss when there's no tests available to even do it.


----------



## D_W

one other side comment - I mentioned the community study here. It was done by a health system to gauge the expected swell in cases. 

Before you even test with limited testing available, you have to know what you're testing for. Someone asking how a test should be designed will first have to say what the goal is, or what you're hoping to learn from the results.


----------



## D_W

RobinBHM":2bag33s5 said:


> There are many extremely intelligent people contributing to this thread, any number of those may have an insight into the testing regime.



I'm sure there are some actuaries or statisticians in the thread somewhere, or at least reading.


----------



## Jake

sploo":1g52wy65 said:


> Droogs":1g52wy65 said:
> 
> 
> 
> A well informed interview held by Joe Rogen yesterday with a leading US epidemiologist working on respiratory vaccines, in fact the Dean of the US tropical medicines uni
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU
> 
> 
> 
> Got it running in the background. About 40m through. Very good isn't it.
Click to expand...


I normally cannot stand video as a medium or Youtube as a whole, but that was really interesting.


----------



## Droogs

It says a lot about our news media when it takes a part time UFC mixed martial arts comedian to actually have a proper interview with the time taken to have full rounded answers and explanations. But Joe does have some very interesting people on his shows at times and they can be up to 3hrs long - perfect for long journeys or parked on yer arssse for chemo


----------



## sploo

Jake":2sl02aj2 said:


> sploo":2sl02aj2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Droogs":2sl02aj2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> A well informed interview held by Joe Rogen yesterday with a leading US epidemiologist working on respiratory vaccines, in fact the Dean of the US tropical medicines uni
> 
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9Q53KWZFMU
> 
> 
> 
> Got it running in the background. About 40m through. Very good isn't it.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I normally cannot stand video as a medium or Youtube as a whole, but that was really interesting.
Click to expand...

I saw it was an hour and ten minutes and thought "I don't really have the time; just give me a text summary", but it is actually very worth sitting through. I guess when there's lots of interesting and useful info it doesn't really feel like it's dragging.


----------



## rafezetter

nev":1ocxvwhu said:


> and there's always someone
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach":1ocxvwhu said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> nev":1ocxvwhu said:
> 
> 
> 
> STOP.
> 
> 1.woodworking forum
> 2.politics
> 3.pointless
> 4.woodworking forum.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Agree with point 2.
> However this is the off topic part of the forum, so being pointless and not about woodworking is kind of the point
> 
> Click to expand...
Click to expand...


But he's not strictly wrong is he Nev (a statement not a question). Not saying all the squabbling should carry on, but "offtopic" IS the place for non woodworking stuff.

Fact is the politics and system of China DID play a detrimental part in this, and to ignore that is foolish, because there is a lesson to be learned for those willingly to accept those facts, and they ARE facts.


----------



## Lons

Thanks for the link Droogs! =D> 
He rambles a bit but very interesting indeed, just watched the whole thing which is an achievement for me as I have a low boredom threshold


----------



## Rorschach

I really enjoy Rogan, he has some interesting people on and they just have a chat. Joe is always eager to learn new things and he doesn't have much of an agenda so you get all kinds of viewpoints. No ad's no time limits, no sponsors, just good stuff.


----------



## nev

Pedants unite!

Which bit of don't talk politics do you not understand?

Regardless wether its current or not, its divisive and serves no purpose apart from stroking ones own sense of superiority.

Now you can act like grown ups, obey the rules, don't try and be clever and push the envelope and carry on politely or I can lock/delete the thread. Up to you.



rafezetter":1dfnx846 said:


> But he's not strictly wrong is he Nev (a statement not a question). Not saying all the squabbling should carry on, but "offtopic" IS the place for non woodworking stuff.
> 
> Fact is the politics and system of China DID play a detrimental part in this, and to ignore that is foolish, because there is a lesson to be learned for those willingly to accept those facts, and they ARE facts.


----------



## Jake

Hopefully mod-friendly pure science (well as pure as it gets when the science and health policy are necessarily intimately entwined) - latest analysis from the LSHTM modelling team (with some subtle positioning for the record):

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/ ... _04_01.pdf


----------



## RogerS

"We found that mitigation measures aimed at reducing transmission would likely have decreased the reproduction number, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding NHS availability. To keep ICU bed demand below capacity in the model, more extreme restrictions were necessary. In a scenario where “lockdown”-type interventions were put in place to reduce transmission, *these interventions would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year* in order to prevent healthcare demand exceeding availability."

Best start growing veg.


----------



## Just4Fun

D_W":3ght39fo said:


> I'm sure there are some actuaries or statisticians in the thread somewhere


I'm neither, but I was offered a job as a trainee actuary after leaving full-time education. I remember an uncle, an accountant, telling me that an actuary is a good job for someone who finds accountancy too exciting. I didn't accept the job offer.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Just4Fun":2se76o5k said:


> D_W":2se76o5k said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm sure there are some actuaries or statisticians in the thread somewhere
> 
> 
> 
> I'm neither, but I was offered a job as a trainee actuary after leaving full-time education. I remember an uncle, an accountant, telling me that an actuary is a good job for someone who finds accountancy too exciting. I didn't accept the job offer.
Click to expand...


I know some great actuaries. The extrovert actuary is the one who looks at your shoes while talking to you rather than their own.


----------



## RogerS

Just read the 'What do do if someone in your household has Covid-19'. Stay in and do not go out.
Get your food online, ring up for it or get someone else to get it for you.

They're having a laugh, aren't they ? Anyone tried booking online ? Or ringing ...well, who exactly. And as for getting someone else to get it for you....that works really well if you are very rural and don't know anyone locally. So..bottom line...for some there is no alternative. They have to go out to get food.


----------



## MikeG.

A sincere thanks to all who expressed good wishes for my wife. It's been a worrying few days, but I am much more relaxed today. She started showing signs of improvement yesterday afternoon, had a good night, and is much better today. We've just come back from a 20 minute walk with the pooch, which would have been impossible just 24 hours ago. Having declared victory prematurely already (a week ago), I'm wary of saying she's completely over it, but I can say that the immediate difficulty is over. This damned disease just doesn't let go, though. I've been fine for 4 or 5 days now, but yesterday had to sit down for most of the day.........two and a half weeks after I showed first symptoms.


----------



## RogerS

That's fantastic news, Mike. Fingers crossed she continues to improve.


----------



## profchris

RogerS":3vd88zkd said:


> Just read the 'What do do if someone in your household has Covid-19'. Stay in and do not go out.
> Get your food online, ring up for it or get someone else to get it for you.
> 
> They're having a laugh, aren't they ? Anyone tried booking online ? Or ringing ...well, who exactly. And as for getting someone else to get it for you....that works really well if you are very rural and don't know anyone locally. So..bottom line...for some there is no alternative. They have to go out to get food.



I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them. In my local area (two villages with a total of maybe 70 houses) we immediately set up phone numbers to call, all of us who weren't isolated volunteered, and those in isolation are being sorted out. The only complaint I've heard is from Barry - his shopper bought him a rather nicer bottle of red than he usually buys and it was delicious, so now he's hooked on the good stuff  

I'd have thought towns and cities were more likely to have problems here - when I lived in London I knew only one person in my street, and that was a work colleague who moved in opposite me.


----------



## RogerS

profchris":37q9vp70 said:


> RogerS":37q9vp70 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just read the 'What do do if someone in your household has Covid-19'. Stay in and do not go out.
> Get your food online, ring up for it or get someone else to get it for you.
> 
> They're having a laugh, aren't they ? Anyone tried booking online ? Or ringing ...well, who exactly. And as for getting someone else to get it for you....that works really well if you are very rural and don't know anyone locally. So..bottom line...for some there is no alternative. They have to go out to get food.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them. .....
Click to expand...


That's why I said 'very' rural. But even if we were living in a village, my wife is severely coeliac and has other allergies. Difficult to expect someone to spend ages reading the ingredient list!

EDIT: Thinking this through a bit more, a lot of supermarkets place limits on the number of items and so it would be unfair to ask someone to 'eat' into their 'allowance', as it were.


----------



## Rorschach

That's fantastic news Mike! Anecdotal stories from my facebook feed would indicate that you will have bad days and good days for a couple of weeks yet so both of you just take it easy and let your body recover.


----------



## Jake

profchris":1q3p70j1 said:


> I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them. In my local area (two villages with a total of maybe 70 houses) we immediately set up phone numbers to call, all of us who weren't isolated volunteered, and those in isolation are being sorted out. The only complaint I've heard is from Barry - his shopper bought him a rather nicer bottle of red than he usually buys and it was delicious, so now he's hooked on the good stuff
> 
> I'd have thought towns and cities were more likely to have problems here - when I lived in London I knew only one person in my street, and that was a work colleague who moved in opposite me.



You'd be surprised I think. There's been a lot of informal stuff (we are helping two sets of neighbours, and that's going on all the way around us) plus a lot of more organised group networks. 

I'm sure there are gaps, but people are trying to pull together. It might be a bit more of a change than in a village setting, but I know my mother in a very rural setting only got a direct offer of (local) help earlier this week.


----------



## Just4Fun

profchris":325x6842 said:


> I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them.


This started me thinking as we are in a very rural area. The nearest store is 27 km away and I don't believe any local store delivers. If you want groceries you have to go shopping. So who could I call if I needed help? I know some local people to speak to if I meet them somewhere but I don't have their phone numbers. The closest person for whom I do have a number lives 300 km from me, and anyway there are travel restrictions in place so travel from there to here is not permitted.

I expect SWMBO has numbers for some local people so maybe it would make sense to get her to write them down, just in case. I might find myself needing help if she were taken sick. I doubt many people are as isolated as I am but even so, perhaps every household should consider creating a shared list of emergency contacts.


----------



## MusicMan

We are not so isolated but still have complied a list of contacts. It's worth everyone doing that.

It's getting a bit close. Just heard that the lady next door, who works part-time in a care home, has the symptoms and is isolating. Fortunately she seems to be improving.

Keith


----------



## MusicMan

MikeG.":299lgn1w said:


> A sincere thanks to all who expressed good wishes for my wife. It's been a worrying few days, but I am much more relaxed today. She started showing signs of improvement yesterday afternoon, had a good night, and is much better today. We've just come back from a 20 minute walk with the pooch, which would have been impossible just 24 hours ago. Having declared victory prematurely already (a week ago), I'm wary of saying she's completely over it, but I can say that the immediate difficulty is over. This damned disease just doesn't let go, though. I've been fine for 4 or 5 days now, but yesterday had to sit down for most of the day.........two and a half weeks after I showed first symptoms.



Very pleased to hear that, Mike.


----------



## profchris

RogerS":2en13n0w said:


> profchris":2en13n0w said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":2en13n0w said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just read the 'What do do if someone in your household has Covid-19'. Stay in and do not go out.
> Get your food online, ring up for it or get someone else to get it for you.
> 
> They're having a laugh, aren't they ? Anyone tried booking online ? Or ringing ...well, who exactly. And as for getting someone else to get it for you....that works really well if you are very rural and don't know anyone locally. So..bottom line...for some there is no alternative. They have to go out to get food.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them. .....
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That's why I said 'very' rural. But even if we were living in a village, my wife is severely coeliac and has other allergies. Difficult to expect someone to spend ages reading the ingredient list!
> 
> EDIT: Thinking this through a bit more, a lot of supermarkets place limits on the number of items and so it would be unfair to ask someone to 'eat' into their 'allowance', as it were.
Click to expand...


I was in my local Co-Op yesterday and someone was shopping for herself and a neighbour. No problem with limits - the staff were trusting (and to be honest, recognised most customers as regulars anyway). I guess a big chain supermarket might be less so, but in my local Asda I'm recognised. Small town stuff!

For those in rural areas looking for help, try the local parish council. Mine sent round a list of emergency contacts the day after the lockdown was announced. Or if your village has a pub, the landlord will know all!


----------



## RogerS

profchris":2nk7ihe5 said:


> RogerS":2nk7ihe5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> profchris":2nk7ihe5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> [
> 
> I'd be surprised if anyone in a rural area, unless they are in a really remote place, has a problem finding someone to shop for them. .....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's why I said 'very' rural. But even if we were living in a village, my wife is severely coeliac and has other allergies. Difficult to expect someone to spend ages reading the ingredient list!
> 
> EDIT: Thinking this through a bit more, a lot of supermarkets place limits on the number of items and so it would be unfair to ask someone to 'eat' into their 'allowance', as it were.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> ....... Or if your village has a pub, the landlord will know all!
Click to expand...


Now you've done it ! :roll: I'd just about brainwashed myself into ignoring the fact that there was my local pub down the hill - closed, like the others, for the duration.

And tonight's Pub NIght ...well, it was


----------



## Blackswanwood

I had a similar thought Roger - I'm sure I don't have a drink problem but I am craving a pint of Black Sheep. We normally have a rota of the farmers markets to visit on Saturdays - I hadn't realised just how much I enjoyed that ritual either. For the avoidance of doubt though I can put up with it if it means people are kept safe and we get through this faster.

I was due to be flying back from India today after a combined Philippines/India business trip hubbing through Hong Kong. Apparently the President has ordered the police to shoot first and ask questions later if anyone is caught breaking the lock down in Manila. India seems to be struggling - the pictures on TV are according to one of my team out there a pretty accurate representation of how the poor were not thought about before their Prime Minister took decisive action.


----------



## Rorschach

Interesting graphic.

https://youtu.be/Hl2qTdVZAJUhttps://youtu.be/Hl2qTdVZAJU


----------



## Bodgers

Rorschach":3fkd2aev said:


> Interesting graphic.
> 
> https://youtu.be/Hl2qTdVZAJUhttps://youtu.be/Hl2qTdVZAJU


Not if you understand exponential growth. I'm not sure the news media do as they seem to be reporting this growth as headlines daily.


----------



## Rorschach

Bodgers":2ope3c19 said:


> Not if you understand exponential growth.



:roll:


----------



## Chris152

684.

Led by science, implemented by nincompoops.


----------



## RogerS

Chris152":kscp39ij said:


> 684.
> 
> Led by science, implemented by nincompoops.



And PHE England


----------



## RogerS

An interesting example of fake news on Facebook.






Which on the face of it sounds reasonable. Until you dig deeper. True...there are a lot of Chinese workers in the clothing manufacturing area of Italy which is pretty much where the trouble started. They are there because of the cachet label 'Made in Italy'. But 200,000 ? Truth is no-one actually knows because a large number of them are illegals and so they are not going to be jumping onto a plane back to China. As for the rest...they are poorly paid workers and that begs the question as to just how many went back to China.

Back to Wutan ? Who knows ? True...Wutan is an area for making clothes. But so are other cities. Such as Wenzhou, Zhejiang which is where the majority of Chinese in Prato, Italy ..one of the, if not the, largest contingent of Chinese in Italy are based (source: Reuters) . Wenzhou, Zhejiang is about 600 miles East of Wutan. 

Of course, not wishing to be the whipping boy (or girl), the Chinese authorities picked up on this story and got the South China Morning Post to publish a story extolling just how smart the Chinese were in Prato and that because they went into a very early lockdown, their infection rates are considerably less than other parts of Italy. 

I've not had time to dig into the veracity of that article yet.

But it just shows how fake news twists peoples' emotions.


----------



## Jake

RogerS":3igqfsj3 said:


> Chris152":3igqfsj3 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 684.
> 
> Led by science, implemented by nincompoops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And PHE England
Click to expand...


If you believe anon politicos spinning to the FT. A week ago, I predicted somewhere else that the civil service ("blob") would be blamed soon. I bet this is palatable blame to the people who don't like blame though.


----------



## RogerS

Jake":wx4hf1j7 said:


> RogerS":wx4hf1j7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris152":wx4hf1j7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 684.
> 
> Led by science, implemented by nincompoops.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And PHE England
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> If you believe anon politicos spinning to the FT. A week ago, I predicted somewhere else that the civil service ("blob") would be blamed soon. I bet this is palatable blame to the people who don't like blame though.
Click to expand...


Well, that's what my wife said. And she's always right. :lol:


----------



## RobinBHM

Roger S said:


> Well, that's what my wife said. And she's always right



Very wise words, never more so than during this period of "stay at home"


----------



## RobinBHM

I have to say I fear this pandemic is going to hit the people of India very badly.

Trying to slow the virus in this country with a population of 65m seems a tall order, trying to slow it in a country of 1.3b is unimanageable.


----------



## MikeG.

India! What about Africa? When this gets going in Nigeria, for instance..........


----------



## Droogs

I think people will be quite surprised at how central africa copes with this, probably a lot better than most given their recent epidemic experiences, with regard to the spread of covid 19 but I do fear that they will have a terrible time with those needing ventilating


----------



## FatmanG

Roger have you been contacted yet to give you a priority pass for supermarket delivery? you were quite correct about getting on that list. Ive been contacted by the asda as i am already a member and they told me i will be contacted by the other supermarkets i have to choose one and pick a delivery slot each week. Quite a relief for myself and family although im sure its no comfort for everyone who isnt classed as vulnerable.
For those in rural areas ring your local council or look online there will be a n umber to ring for those people shielded that cannot bet to the shops. They have a list of volunteers who will shop for you if you have no cash then they offer you a food bank.
Hope this helps


----------



## eezageeza

We got a vulnerable older relative registered as a new customer at Sainsburys last week - if you go on their website and try to register as a new customer it transfers you to a gov.uk site which asks if you've had a letter, alongwith some other personal details, and if you answer all those correctly it then authorises you as a vulnerable/priority customer (takes 24 hours to go active).
Thereafter, you order online as usual. In our experience the delivery slots are sparse, but reasonably available (in 2 - 3 days from order).


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":3jyl374d said:


> Roger have you been contacted yet to give you a priority pass for supermarket delivery? you were quite correct about getting on that list. Ive been contacted by the asda as i am already a member and they told me i will be contacted by the other supermarkets i have to choose one and pick a delivery slot each week. Quite a relief for myself and family although im sure its no comfort for everyone who isnt classed as vulnerable.
> For those in rural areas ring your local council or look online there will be a n umber to ring for those people shielded that cannot bet to the shops. They have a list of volunteers who will shop for you if you have no cash then they offer you a food bank.
> Hope this helps



Hi...well, I think that .. at least for me..it seems to be happening in the background because suddenly I can access the slots. OK...all slots are unavailable until Jul 6...yes, not a typo.. July 6. So LOML is going out shopping each week or so. At least she has a decent mask now and where we live, the number of infections are pretty low.

Mind you, she opened up a bit about what it was like walking up the High Street last week with bored grown men coughing and spitting at people walking past...grown men or as I call them low-life, knuckle-dragging scum that need a bullet between the eyes. So she's not walking up there again. I offered to go with her but she told me I'd have to leave my rifle behind which kinda takes the fun out of it.


----------



## RogerS

A few pages back there was this (IMO) egregious post made when we were discussing 'heroes'. 

_They made their choice knowing full well what it entailed and they are free to leave at anytime. _

Analogies were made with the armed forces etc. That's actually quite a good analogy because when we send soldiers into battle we usually give them armour and a gun. And with a bit of luck they will outnumber the enemy.

We're asking the same of our medics. Only we've omitted to give many of them any armour (PPE equipment), omitted to give them a gun (testing for Covid-19..OK..not an exact analogy) and overwhelming them with numbers. So yes. IMO they are damn heroes and anyone that says otherwise is very shallow.


----------



## Selwyn

RogerS":9y78lely said:


> FatmanG":9y78lely said:
> 
> 
> 
> Roger have you been contacted yet to give you a priority pass for supermarket delivery? you were quite correct about getting on that list. Ive been contacted by the asda as i am already a member and they told me i will be contacted by the other supermarkets i have to choose one and pick a delivery slot each week. Quite a relief for myself and family although im sure its no comfort for everyone who isnt classed as vulnerable.
> For those in rural areas ring your local council or look online there will be a n umber to ring for those people shielded that cannot bet to the shops. They have a list of volunteers who will shop for you if you have no cash then they offer you a food bank.
> Hope this helps
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hi...well, I think that .. at least for me..it seems to be happening in the background because suddenly I can access the slots. OK...all slots are unavailable until Jul 6...yes, not a typo.. July 6. So LOML is going out shopping each week or so. At least she has a decent mask now and where we live, the number of infections are pretty low.
> 
> Mind you, she opened up a bit about what it was like walking up the High Street last week with bored grown men coughing and spitting at people walking past...grown men or as I call them low-life, knuckle-dragging scum that need a bullet between the eyes. So she's not walking up there again. I offered to go with her but she told me I'd have to leave my rifle behind which kinda takes the fun out of it.
Click to expand...


Wow. Big man


----------



## Lons

Selwyn":2rwn2laa said:


> RogerS":2rwn2laa said:
> 
> 
> 
> So LOML is going out shopping each week or so. At least she has a decent mask now and where we live, the number of infections are pretty low.
> 
> Mind you, she opened up a bit about what it was like walking up the High Street last week with bored grown men coughing and spitting at people walking past...grown men or as I call them low-life, knuckle-dragging scum that need a bullet between the eyes. So she's not walking up there again. I offered to go with her but she told me I'd have to leave my rifle behind which kinda takes the fun out of it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wow. Big man
Click to expand...

So you don't mind sc*m deliberately coughing and spitting at people by the sound of it. :roll:


----------



## FatmanG

Lons":usg636mm said:


> Selwyn":usg636mm said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":usg636mm said:
> 
> 
> 
> So LOML is going out shopping each week or so. At least she has a decent mask now and where we live, the number of infections are pretty low.
> 
> Mind you, she opened up a bit about what it was like walking up the High Street last week with bored grown men coughing and spitting at people walking past...grown men or as I call them low-life, knuckle-dragging scum that need a bullet between the eyes. So she's not walking up there again. I offered to go with her but she told me I'd have to leave my rifle behind which kinda takes the fun out of it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Wow. Big man
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> So you don't mind sc*m deliberately coughing and spitting at people by the sound of it. :roll:
Click to expand...

not only coughing and spitting being bad enough but possibly infecting others with a life threatening virus my god i despair. 
There is going to be a case where this happens and someone dies imo the spitters should be charged with murder, manslaughter at the very least. I am far from perfect far from perfect but i wouldnt dream of being a) so disgusting and b) so incredibly effing stupid


----------



## Selwyn

I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.


----------



## MikeG.

Selwyn":3rrn4ava said:


> I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.



Hyperbole, Selwyn. It's been a standard technique of writers for centuries.


----------



## D_W

Used by insecure writers who don't have a point to make without exaggeration.


----------



## MikeG.

D_W":5auivl9d said:


> Used by insecure writers who don't have a point to make without exaggeration.



:roll: :roll: Like William Shakespeare, for instance. Or Gabriel Garcia Marquez. Or WH Auden. Harper Lee did it beautifully. Oh, and the writers of the bible (whoever they were).


----------



## Blackswanwood

I have no idea whether this is a widespread problem (coughing and spitting not shooting people) but I have heard and seen far more examples of positive rather than negative behaviour over the past few weeks. It would be good if when we get through to the other side of this some of it sticks.


----------



## Selwyn

MikeG.":3t4cf88k said:


> Selwyn":3t4cf88k said:
> 
> 
> 
> I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hyperbole, Selwyn. It's been a standard technique of writers for centuries.
Click to expand...


Or just panic inflating nonsense


----------



## Nigel Burden

My experience is that the vast majority of people are behaving responsibly and leaving plenty of space when out taking exercise. I had one instance when my me and my wife were walking back from the bank. The pavement in the village main street is wide, enough room for probably five people to walk abreast. Three women were approaching us walking three abreast, we went single file, there was no attempt made to distance themselves.

On the negative side, and in response to one of the above posts, Dorset Police are looking for two youths who knocked a care worker on her way to work to the ground by hitting her across the back of the head with a bag of some sort, then one kicked her in the back and spat in her face saying, "You've now got Corona" :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: Apparently the other youth was telling him to stop.

Nigel.


----------



## thetyreman

I've been keeping my distance when exercising, cycling has been great with no cars on the road, love it.


----------



## Sonny184

thetyreman":3dz0z448 said:


> I've been keeping my distance when exercising, cycling has been great with no cars on the road, love it.



Here here! Returned from a walk with the Mrs and we did enjoy how quiet it was. 
A guy was washing his car and on seeing us he got inside it, sat down and then got out once we passed. Not sure if this was because of the current situation or because he didn't like the look of us haha.


----------



## RogerS

This site is a good one for different scientific views regarding Covid-19

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... -covid-19/


----------



## MikeG.

thetyreman":222dylon said:


> .......cycling has been great with no cars on the road, love it.



That's going to be the marker for my complete return to health.....getting back on my bike. At the moment I'm not up to it, but hopefully in a week or two. This time last year I was training for a 1000 mile ride to Spain. Now, I reckon I'd struggle with a 1000 metre ride around the block.


----------



## transatlantic

Went to Tesco to pick up my next 10 or so days worth of food. Everyone seemed to be doing a good job of following the rules except for a small group of staff, 3-4 girls all stood around a bread trolley chatting. Like within a few feet of each other ....

I shouldn't jump to conclusions. Maybe they all live to togeather?

Anyhow - the shelves were pretty well stocked. Got most of what I wanted.


----------



## Nigel Burden

My son's gone into isolation. Started a sore throat and a cough but no known temperature or lethargy on Thursday. He thinks it's a cold but obviously not taking any chances, and it's not become any worse. He's been working from home for the past couple of weeks and has not been going out only to buy essential items. So my wife is doing his shopping now.

Nigel.


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":1sidvlmw said:


> thetyreman":1sidvlmw said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......cycling has been great with no cars on the road, love it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That's going to be the marker for my complete return to health.....getting back on my bike. At the moment I'm not up to it, but hopefully in a week or two. This time last year I was training for a 1000 mile ride to Spain. Now, I reckon I'd struggle with a 1000 metre ride around the block.
Click to expand...

There's one thing to be wary of with viral infections and that is that you may feel generally recovered but there may still be dangers. A former colleague of mine had a bad cold. Once he felt OK again he went for a run with one of my mates and unfortunately after a couple of miles he dropped down dead. The post mortem revealed that the virus had infected his heart tissue while producing no symptoms. However, it meant that his heart was weakened to the extent that the exertion from running made it burst.

I don't know if corona has form for that sort of thing but you may want to take it easy for a while just to be on the safe side.


----------



## D_W

covid-19 has a bad reputation (hopefully only for people who have a predisposition) for the same thing - terminal patients who felt improved (but generally in someone with known risks - high blood pressure, heart disease).


----------



## RogerS

D_W":1di4f0fj said:


> covid-19 has a bad reputation (hopefully only for people who have a predisposition) for the same thing - terminal patients who felt improved (but generally in someone with known risks - high blood pressure, heart disease).



Not at all. Check out many of the detailed and accurate online reports. Covid-19 doesn't really seem that bothered with co-morbidities.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus. 

My lovely wife hasn't been out in public for just short of two weeks, but came down with a tickly cough, felt a little lethargic for a couple of days, and is now over it, except for a less than bothersome cough. I had about 6 hours of "I think I'm coming down with something" - felt a bit spaced out and detached, and itchy gums, which is always my precursor to a good cold. It developed into nothing at all.

So, having been almost completely quarantined, and pretty careful on the two occasions we went out in to the world, we got "something" anyway. No idea if it is the dreaded lurgy, because the symptoms are so mild. No idea how we caught it - possibly from fruit? It's just a guess. Even if we didn't catch Covid19, we caught "something", which shows that quarantine doesn't work unless you go to extreme bio-lab levels of paranoia. Wash all your food, cook EVERYTHING, wash your hands before and after food prep - assume every single thing that has come into your house from outside is evil and radioactive...and then virus particles rain out of the sky anyway - no hiding from them. https://www.livescience.com/61689-virus ... m-sky.html

I haven't read the last 10 pages or so of this thread- I hope everyone is doing well despite all of the chaos. Latest estimation I have seen suggests dropping the house arrest no earlier than 1st July, but who knows what the politicians will decide. 

I've just got my hands on a 3,500 page book - I may be gone for some time


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Trainee neophyte":125vk11t said:


> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.
> 
> My lovely wife hasn't been out in public for just short of two weeks, but came down with a tickly cough, felt a little lethargic for a couple of days, and is now over it, except for a less than bothersome cough. I had about 6 hours of "I think I'm coming down with something" - felt a bit spaced out and detached, and itchy gums, which is always my precursor to a good cold. It developed into nothing at all.
> 
> So, having been almost completely quarantined, and pretty careful on the two occasions we went out in to the world, we got "something" anyway. No idea if it is the dreaded lurgy, because the symptoms are so mild. No idea how we caught it - possibly from fruit? It's just a guess. Even if we didn't catch Covid19, we caught "something", which shows that quarantine doesn't work unless you go to extreme bio-lab levels of paranoia. Wash all your food, cook EVERYTHING, wash your hands before and after food prep - assume every single thing that has come into your house from outside is evil and radioactive...and then virus particles rain out of the sky anyway - no hiding from them. https://www.livescience.com/61689-virus ... m-sky.html
> 
> I haven't read the last 10 pages or so of this thread- I hope everyone is doing well despite all of the chaos. Latest estimation I have seen suggests dropping the house arrest no earlier than 1st July, but who knows what the politicians will decide.
> 
> I've just got my hands on a 3,500 page book - I may be gone for some time


μέγα βιβλίον μέγα κακόν !


----------



## MikeG.

Trainee neophyte":ngbcxvti said:


> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.........



Hope you're OK, TN, and I hope it is as mild as you think it is. However, the big lesson from my wife's illness and my illness is that it comes in waves. You think you've got it beaten, and it comes back harder, even after 2 or 3 days of feeling completely well. Just be cautious and observant, and take things really steady. Don't declare victory just yet.


----------



## Bodgers

Trainee neophyte":32auwjtx said:


> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.
> 
> My lovely wife hasn't been out in public for just short of two weeks, but came down with a tickly cough, felt a little lethargic for a couple of days, and is now over it, except for a less than bothersome cough. I had about 6 hours of "I think I'm coming down with something" - felt a bit spaced out and detached, and itchy gums, which is always my precursor to a good cold. It developed into nothing at all.
> 
> So, having been almost completely quarantined, and pretty careful on the two occasions we went out in to the world, we got "something" anyway. No idea if it is the dreaded lurgy, because the symptoms are so mild. No idea how we caught it - possibly from fruit? It's just a guess. Even if we didn't catch Covid19, we caught "something", which shows that quarantine doesn't work unless you go to extreme bio-lab levels of paranoia. Wash all your food, cook EVERYTHING, wash your hands before and after food prep - assume every single thing that has come into your house from outside is evil and radioactive...and then virus particles rain out of the sky anyway - no hiding from them. https://www.livescience.com/61689-virus ... m-sky.html
> 
> I haven't read the last 10 pages or so of this thread- I hope everyone is doing well despite all of the chaos. Latest estimation I have seen suggests dropping the house arrest no earlier than 1st July, but who knows what the politicians will decide.
> 
> I've just got my hands on a 3,500 page book - I may be gone for some time


That link just isn't helpful; just because a whole range of viruses are airborne doesn't mean this one is. The Measles virus can be for example, but this Corona virus is not. It has to be contained within droplets or microdroplets.

The only intention in posting stuff like this is to project your own fears on other people. The result could be in incorrectly assuming that it's airborne anyway, we may as well give up on other measures like hand washing and keeping our distance - which we definitely should be keeping up.


----------



## Lons

Selwyn":o8xdp6a7 said:


> Or just panic inflating nonsense



I'll tell that to my golfing partner who's mother caught Corvid-19 and very sadly died in hospital at 5am yesterday despite being ventilated. He couldn't even go to see her or the rest of his family and doesn't know what will happen with the funeral.

You really are a strange person, maybe to much time spent with those hill sheep.


----------



## FatmanG

i wish sky news would ask the right questions for once. Boris Johnson taken into hospital for precautions/tests has to be questioned. He must be pretty damn poorly to have to go to hospital in the first place as he will know more than anyone how stretched the NHS is at this time. If he isn't having difficulty breathing on the point of needing intervention then he shouldn't be anywhere near a hospital. If that is the case then he is wide open for accusations of favour etc like Prince Charlse got re being tested. 
I hope he isn't very poorly but i fear he is.


----------



## RogerS

Lons":1mve26av said:


> Selwyn":1mve26av said:
> 
> 
> 
> Or just panic inflating nonsense
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'll tell that to my golfing partner who's mother caught Corvid-19 and very sadly died in hospital at 5am yesterday despite being ventilated. He couldn't even go to see her or the rest of his family and doesn't know what will happen with the funeral.
> 
> You really are a strange person, maybe to much time spent with those hill sheep.
Click to expand...


That's the trouble with quoting ....you see the bile and bigotry posted by someone on your Foe's list. :evil: 

Good post, nevertheless, Lons, and a point well made. Especially the sheep.


----------



## Selwyn

Lons":3s8khci9 said:



> Selwyn":3s8khci9 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Or just panic inflating nonsense
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'll tell that to my golfing partner who's mother caught Corvid-19 and very sadly died in hospital at 5am yesterday despite being ventilated. He couldn't even go to see her or the rest of his family and doesn't know what will happen with the funeral.
> 
> You really are a strange person, maybe to much time spent with those hill sheep.
Click to expand...


Not at all. I've told you its a serious disease and recognise it as so. I expect 15k people will die of it in the UK. However largely despite the media circus (remember they want to keep you clicking) the overwhelming majority of people are doing what they asked and it will slow the virus. The risks of picking it up in the supermarket remain overwhelmingly unlikely. 

What I don't like is talk of shooting people in the street and the falsification of the idea food shortages as a major issue (we are now chucking away British milk by the way, and the potato price has collapsed and so has the meat price)- there was no shortage of food despite you getting sand in your knickers about it and I told you there wasn't because I work in this industry. 

Inducing fear, panic and nastiness does not make the disease go away quicker. It just increases a sense of national anxiety and panic's an evolving situation. Recognise there is a wider strategy to reducing the Covid and don't single out single incidents as evidence of the whole - they are not.


----------



## Blackswanwood

I fear the thread is going down the previous route of people needing to feel/feeling the need they have had the last word and/or insulting each other.

FatmanG - my sister is a nurse and is working on a Covid ward. I asked her your question as it also crossed my mind when I spoke with her last night. She didn't read too much into him being taken in and said she had seem similar happening where patients didn't have the most severe symptoms but couldn't shake it off. Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.

I hope you are keeping okay and managing to keep woodworking to take your mind off it all!


----------



## RogerS

Blackswanwood":1geev404 said:


> .... Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.
> 
> ....



Not sure what you mean by this ..is she saying that if a lot of patients come in with severe infection that they then pass it on to others who perhaps like Boris - are not in a serious condition ? Scary thought, if so.


----------



## MikeG.

With tens of thousands of people now recovering from the virus, I am a little surprised that there isn't any official guidance as to how to handle this post-illness phase. Some advice on returning to work, coming out of isolation and back to the social distancing regime, resuming exercise, when it is safe to resume helping elderly family members, and so on, would all be very valuable, as would be guidance on isolation in those cases where symptoms remain well after the 14 day isolation period expires.


----------



## MikeG.

RogerS":1uukp3ea said:


> Blackswanwood":1uukp3ea said:
> 
> 
> 
> .... Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> .......is she saying that if a lot of patients come in with severe infection that they then pass it on to others who perhaps like Boris - are not in a serious condition ? .......
Click to expand...


That can't be the case. Those with the virus can't be given a more severe version of it. All the versions are the same when they enter your body......it's just that people react to it very differently.

I'd also be cautious about saying Boris isn't in a serious condition.


----------



## Blackswanwood

RogerS":35kw30zb said:


> Blackswanwood":35kw30zb said:
> 
> 
> 
> .... Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure what you mean by this ..is she saying that if a lot of patients come in with severe infection that they then pass it on to others who perhaps like Boris - are not in a serious condition ? Scary thought, if so.
Click to expand...


No, as I understood it she was saying her educated guess is they have capacity in hospitals at the moment to look at less severe cases. If the number of severe cases increases they will not have and so triaging will result in resource not being allocated to look at less severe ones. I guess the demand on hospitals will be varied across the country but there were news reports in the last couple of days that London has capacity.

To be clear and to reiterate MikeG's point she is not saying Boris is not in a serious condition - she is just saying the fact he has gone to hospital doesn't necessarily mean that he is.


----------



## Blackswanwood

MikeG.":2brcx8uw said:
 

> With tens of thousands of people now recovering from the virus, I am a little surprised that there isn't any official guidance as to how to handle this post-illness phase. Some advice on returning to work, coming out of isolation and back to the social distancing regime, resuming exercise, when it is safe to resume helping elderly family members, and so on, would all be very valuable, as would be guidance on isolation in those cases where symptoms remain well after the 14 day isolation period expires.



I agree - it is very confusing. I also have people who have recovered and are returning to work (essential service) who think they now don't need to socially distance (they do as with no testing they don't know they actually had Covid19 or just a cold) as they are now think they are immune and fellow workers not being sure if they are safe having recovered people in the building.


----------



## Selwyn

MikeG.":19wiaers said:


> With tens of thousands of people now recovering from the virus, I am a little surprised that there isn't any official guidance as to how to handle this post-illness phase. Some advice on returning to work, coming out of isolation and back to the social distancing regime, resuming exercise, when it is safe to resume helping elderly family members, and so on, would all be very valuable, as would be guidance on isolation in those cases where symptoms remain well after the 14 day isolation period expires.



If symptoms remain after your isolation period then you are potentially infectious. Wait for 7 days until after you have no symptoms. 14 days is for everyone in the house


----------



## Droogs

Selwyn":2ilrmuh4 said:


> What I don't like is talk of shooting people in the street and the falsification of the idea food shortages as a major issue (we are now chucking away British milk by the way, and the potato price has collapsed and so has the meat price)- there was no shortage of food despite you getting sand in your knickers about it and I told you there wasn't because I work in this industry.




Explain why my other half was only able to purchase bread flour for the first time yesterday and only 1kg bag as being rationed by staff after not seeing a single bag on the shelves since February. Due to health concerns I am not allowed to eat nearly any massed produced pre-made food, I have to make my own pasta, bread from scratch even pasta sauces are to be made from fresh ingredients as all the pre-processed stuff has too much rubbish in it for my body ie no salt: no sugar, no transfats no msg etc. So no prick and ping etc or ready made in a tin. So where the hell has all the flour been hiding if there have been no shortages. Admittedly fresh meat seems to be as available as ever but other things are not.
So going by your statements, to me , you are talking out yer puckered orifice. The 2 largest wheat and rice exporting nations have now banned such exports. Food seeds have been banned for sale in many garden centres and big box stores to the general public and are only to be made available to registered commercial growers. If you took yer head out of the aforementioned puckered ... and did some real research as to what is going on in other parts of the food industry you would not come out with the vitriol that you have. Hope you have a well fed day unlike many others

edit typos


----------



## MikeG.

Selwyn":2d1u5pmx said:


> ........Wait for 7 days until after you have no symptoms........



That isn't the official line.


----------



## Blackswanwood

MikeG.":pz5o93q8 said:


> Selwyn":pz5o93q8 said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........Wait for 7 days until after you have no symptoms........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That isn't the official line.
Click to expand...


This is what it says on Gov.uk :

Household isolation
If living with others, then all household members who remain well may end household-isolation after 14 days. The 14-day period starts from the day illness began in the first person to become ill. Fourteen days is the incubation period for coronavirus; people who remain well after 14 days are unlikely to be infectious.

After 7 days, if the first person to become ill feels better and no longer has a high temperature, they can return to their normal routine. If any other family members become unwell during the 14-day household-isolation period, they should follow the same advice - that is, after 7 days of their symptoms starting, if they feel better and no longer have a high temperature, they can also return to their normal routine.

Should a household member develop coronavirus symptoms late in the 14-day household-isolation period (for example, on day 13 or day 14) the isolation period does not need to be extended, but the person with the new symptoms has to stay at home for 7 days. The 14-day household-isolation period will have greatly reduced the overall amount of infection the rest of the household could pass on, and it is not necessary to restart 14 days of isolation for the whole household. This will have provided a high level of community protection. Further isolation of members of this household will provide very little additional community protection.

At the end of the 14-day period, any family member who has not become unwell can leave household isolation.

If any ill person in the household has not had any signs of improvement and have not already sought medical advice, they should contact NHS 111 online. If your home has no internet access, you should call NHS 111.

The cough may persist for several weeks in some people, despite the coronavirus infection having cleared. A persistent cough alone does not mean someone must continue to self-isolate for more than 7 days.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

MikeG.":u1swjjwo said:


> Trainee neophyte":u1swjjwo said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hope you're OK, TN, and I hope it is as mild as you think it is. However, the big lesson from my wife's illness and my illness is that it comes in waves. You think you've got it beaten, and it comes back harder, even after 2 or 3 days of feeling completely well. Just be cautious and observant, and take things really steady. Don't declare victory just yet.
Click to expand...


We are absolutely fine! I had nothing at all, and the wife's cough is almost gone. May have been something else entirely, but how we caught it - no idea. I hope you and yours aredoing better now, too (I've been hiding, so I haven't followed everything here). 

We will assume we are lepers for the next couple of weeks, and fingers crossed that is the last of it. Seems hugely unfair, given how other people are struggling

Now, I am going to step away from this thread again - it seems a little excitable, and I certainly won't help.


----------



## Trainee neophyte

Woody2Shoes":19dtce0s said:


> Trainee neophyte":19dtce0s said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.
> 
> My lovely wife hasn't been out in public for just short of two weeks, but came down with a tickly cough, felt a little lethargic for a couple of days, and is now over it, except for a less than bothersome cough. I had about 6 hours of "I think I'm coming down with something" - felt a bit spaced out and detached, and itchy gums, which is always my precursor to a good cold. It developed into nothing at all.
> 
> So, having been almost completely quarantined, and pretty careful on the two occasions we went out in to the world, we got "something" anyway. No idea if it is the dreaded lurgy, because the symptoms are so mild. No idea how we caught it - possibly from fruit? It's just a guess. Even if we didn't catch Covid19, we caught "something", which shows that quarantine doesn't work unless you go to extreme bio-lab levels of paranoia. Wash all your food, cook EVERYTHING, wash your hands before and after food prep - assume every single thing that has come into your house from outside is evil and radioactive...and then virus particles rain out of the sky anyway - no hiding from them. https://www.livescience.com/61689-virus ... m-sky.html
> 
> I haven't read the last 10 pages or so of this thread- I hope everyone is doing well despite all of the chaos. Latest estimation I have seen suggests dropping the house arrest no earlier than 1st July, but who knows what the politicians will decide.
> 
> I've just got my hands on a 3,500 page book - I may be gone for some time
> 
> 
> 
> μέγα βιβλίον μέγα κακόν !
Click to expand...

Interesting grammar, but yes. Still, it was that or posting about Brexit...

Smh! It was a quote! Now I get it. Sorry - slow on the uptake, and ancient Greek hence the grammar...


----------



## MikeG.

Blackswanwood":2hh0ha9j said:


> ......This is what it says on Gov.uk :........



I know, thanks. That's a very great deal different from what Selwyn thinks we should be doing.


----------



## Selwyn

Droogs":fejfo47i said:


> Selwyn":fejfo47i said:
> 
> 
> 
> What I don't like is talk of shooting people in the street and the falsification of the idea food shortages as a major issue (we are now chucking away British milk by the way, and the potato price has collapsed and so has the meat price)- there was no shortage of food despite you getting sand in your knickers about it and I told you there wasn't because I work in this industry.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Explain why my other half was only able to purchase bread flour for the first time yesterday and only 1kg bag as being rationed by staff after not seeing a single bag on the shelves since February. Due to health concerns I am not allowed to eat nearly any massed produced pre-made food, I have to make my own pasta, bread from scratch even pasta sauces are to be made from fresh ingredients as all the pre-processed stuff has too much rubbish in it for my body ie no salt: no sugar, no transfats no msg etc. So no prick and ping etc or ready made in a tin. So where the hell has all the flour been hiding if there have been no shortages. Admittedly fresh meat seems to be as available as ever but other things are not.
> So going by your statements, to me , you are talking out yer puckered orifice. The 2 largest wheat and rice exporting nations have now banned such exports. Food seeds have been banned for sale in many garden centres and big box stores to the general public and are only to be made available to registered commercial growers. If you took yer head out of the aforementioned puckered ... and did some real research as to what is going on in other parts of the food industry you would not come out with the vitriol that you have. Hope you have a well fed day unlike many others
> 
> edit typos
Click to expand...


Because panic buyers had caused a temporary distribution shortage whereby people could not get everything they wanted when they wanted and this lasted about a week. The food is there, the distribution system system wasn't prepared. All of a sudden people were making purchases of things they wouldnt usually. That is not a shortage of food that is a shortage of choice of food. Most lines kept going ok and will continue to adapt. 

There is plenty of wheat and rice in the world. Wheat prices would have to double to make a real difference to bread price

Ive given zero vitriol. Im not the not the one who advocates shooting people etc. Deal with the facts not the hype.


----------



## MikeG.

Selwyn":2mcg16kl said:


> .......Ive given zero vitriol. Im not the not the one who advocates shooting people etc. Deal with the facts not the hype.



You could put that one to rest by acknowledging that you understand the concept of hyperbole. In a grown-up discussion one has to assume people have that sort of basic grasp of normal conversation.


----------



## RogerS

Blackswanwood":2o0b57nx said:


> RogerS":2o0b57nx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Blackswanwood":2o0b57nx said:
> 
> 
> 
> .... Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not sure what you mean by this ..is she saying that if a lot of patients come in with severe infection that they then pass it on to others who perhaps like Boris - are not in a serious condition ? Scary thought, if so.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No, as I understood it she was saying her educated guess is they have capacity in hospitals at the moment to look at less severe cases. If the number of severe cases increases they will not have and so triaging will result in resource not being allocated to look at less severe ones. I guess the demand on hospitals will be varied across the country but there were news reports in the last couple of days that London has capacity.
> 
> To be clear and to reiterate MikeG's point she is not saying Boris is not in a serious condition - she is just saying the fact he has gone to hospital doesn't necessarily mean that he is.
Click to expand...


Many thanks for the clarification. Latest news...I think he may be in a serious condition as he's now on oxygen.


----------



## Selwyn

MikeG.":3u38q37q said:


> Selwyn":3u38q37q said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........Wait for 7 days until after you have no symptoms........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> That isn't the official line.
Click to expand...


How do you read the official line?


----------



## sploo

FatmanG":2pkv7ijx said:


> i wish sky news would ask the right questions for once. Boris Johnson taken into hospital for precautions/tests has to be questioned. He must be pretty damn poorly to have to go to hospital in the first place as he will know more than anyone how stretched the NHS is at this time. If he isn't having difficulty breathing on the point of needing intervention then he shouldn't be anywhere near a hospital. If that is the case then he is wide open for accusations of favour etc like Prince Charlse got re being tested.
> I hope he isn't very poorly but i fear he is.


Much though I'm no fan of Boris I can't argue against senior leaders getting priority treatment. It would be more disruptive to the country to lose a top-tier power figure than "some average bloke".




MikeG.":2pkv7ijx said:


> RogerS":2pkv7ijx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Blackswanwood":2pkv7ijx said:
> 
> 
> 
> .... Scarily she also said she thought this would change quickly if the number of patients with severe symptoms increases.
> 
> ....
> 
> 
> 
> .......is she saying that if a lot of patients come in with severe infection that they then pass it on to others who perhaps like Boris - are not in a serious condition ? .......
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> That can't be the case. Those with the virus can't be given a more severe version of it. All the versions are the same when they enter your body......it's just that people react to it very differently.
Click to expand...

Viral load (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_load) - it's been one of the concerns of medical staff; basically being surrounded by Covid patients means you're being exposed to a much higher quantity of the virus, which means your body could be hit harder, and faster, than what would be normal.

That said, I have seen some (plausible) material claiming that it shouldn't/isn't a major factor in medics dying of Covid-19 related symptoms. I don't have the understanding of the field to make any sense of whether that's true.


----------



## Droogs

@Selwyn
Here is the main fact - I have not eaten bread in 3 weeks as there is a SHORTAGE of bread flour on the empty shelves


----------



## RobinBHM

Droogs":1fkpmfy1 said:


> @Selwyn
> Here is the main fact - I have not eaten bread in 3 weeks as there is a SHORTAGE of bread flour on the empty shelves



you might be able to order online if you pick the right time -Ive not tried this site during this crisis but I used to buy from them often:

https://www.wessexmill.co.uk/

my favourite is their french bread flour and the cobber

Also I have found its possible to get a Tescos online order if you are try often enough. I think the key is if your order is picked from a customer fulfillment centre, not a shop.


----------



## Selwyn

Droogs":27od3inn said:


> @Selwyn
> Here is the main fact - I have not eaten bread in 3 weeks as there is a SHORTAGE of bread flour on the empty shelves



Yes there is a shortage of some niche products and some products typically bought in smaller quantities have spiked. There is however plenty of wheat in the world and this country. This is different to the scaremongering of a "food shortage" which people have been going ott on. 

Are you unable to use any alternatives at all? Is the local bakery shut? Are you unable to eat rice/ cous cous/ potatoes/ quinoa/ cauliflower etc as your carbohydrate alternative?


----------



## MikeG.

RogerS":24uwnkt3 said:


> .......Latest news...I think he may be in a serious condition as he's now on oxygen.



Apparently not. Downing St are saying it is routine testing. The "on oxygen" story originates on a Russian site.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":3eybuhnf said:


> RogerS":3eybuhnf said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......Latest news...I think he may be in a serious condition as he's now on oxygen.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Apparently not. Downing St are saying it is routine testing. The "on oxygen" story originates on a Russian site.
Click to expand...


Ooh...I'll tell my wife she's been conned. I'll enjoy that :lol:


----------



## MikeG.

No one has said he_ isn't_ on oxygen. The Russians may have this one right, but that's not the official line, and Downing Street are refusing to give out any confidential medical information, quite rightly.


----------



## Bodgers

I suppose, there's a difference between given oxygen and being on a ventilator.

One might be in that "severe" 15-17% category, the other more "critical".

It is a work in progress though, so hopefully being forced to rest, treatment etc. will help.


----------



## RogerS

Bodgers":3rz1laf8 said:


> I suppose, there's a difference between given oxygen and being on a ventilator.
> 
> One might be in that "severe" 15-17% category, the other more "critical".
> 
> ....



There most definitely is. As you say, the former (15%) will be on the ward and taking oxygen either nasally or COPD. The unfortunate 5% will be in ITU on a ventilator. Some may be on for three weeks. This is most definitely NOT 'just the flu'.


----------



## RogerS

MikeG.":iyv4xof5 said:


> Trainee neophyte":iyv4xof5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hope you're OK, TN, and I hope it is as mild as you think it is. However, the big lesson from my wife's illness and my illness is that it comes in waves. You think you've got it beaten, and it comes back harder, even after 2 or 3 days of feeling completely well. Just be cautious and observant, and take things really steady. Don't declare victory just yet.
Click to expand...


I've been thinking about this and wondering why some folk get revisits until the virus is firmly hit on the head. Here's my theory. I am not a scientist of any description so take what follows as you see fit !

On initial infection, the body uses IgM anti-bodies to fight it. They are, for want of a better word, the storm-troopers. But they are short-lived. The body then brings in the main army ...IgG anti-bodies that are much longer lived etc.

Now, human bodies are all different. So, say, person A has a relatively low-supply of IgM antibodies and is also slow to kick of the production of the right IgG antibodies then, because the IgM are short-lived, it gives the virus a chance to fight back. Hence MikeG's relapse. Some more IgM get produced, virus takes another bashing which knocks it back some more, but those IgG anibodies are still slow to muster. Hence another relapse but not as bad as the first.

No idea if that is what happens but it works for me !


----------



## Bodgers

RogerS":2u9afvx0 said:


> MikeG.":2u9afvx0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Trainee neophyte":2u9afvx0 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I've been ignoring this thread for a bit - all a bit too much, but here's an interesting thing: I think I have/have had the virus.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Hope you're OK, TN, and I hope it is as mild as you think it is. However, the big lesson from my wife's illness and my illness is that it comes in waves. You think you've got it beaten, and it comes back harder, even after 2 or 3 days of feeling completely well. Just be cautious and observant, and take things really steady. Don't declare victory just yet.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I've been thinking about this and wondering why some folk get revisits until the virus is firmly hit on the head. Here's my theory. I am not a scientist of any description so take what follows as you see fit !
> 
> On initial infection, the body uses IgM anti-bodies to fight it. They are, for want of a better word, the storm-troopers. But they are short-lived. The body then brings in the main army ...IgG anti-bodies that are much longer lived etc.
> 
> Now, human bodies are all different. So, say, person A has a relatively low-supply of IgM antibodies and is also slow to kick of the production of the right IgG antibodies then, because the IgM are short-lived, it gives the virus a chance to fight back. Hence MikeG's relapse. Some more IgM get produced, virus takes another bashing which knocks it back some more, but those IgG anibodies are still slow to muster. Hence another relapse but not as bad as the first.
> 
> No idea if that is what happens but it works for me !
Click to expand...

The two phases of a COVID-19 infection are explained quite well by a MedCram video on this subject. He talks extensively on how important the initial immune system response is, and how in COVID-19 the virus (in some cases) seems to have an ability to trick the immune system into an initial low grade response, in some cases evading detection, which can setup the patient for a more severe disease days later.

Nature article about the phases:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41418-020-0530-3


----------



## FatmanG

hi Blackswanwood
I am keeping ok i think mate i hjope you and yours are well especially your sister tell her thanks for answering my question.
I am in the shed most of the daylight hours and loving it. I am building a chest of drawers at the moment my first ones so far so good. I upcycled (i think) a 6'x3' mirror and its in my daughters bedroom 
. Im just keeping busy and out of trouble  
stay safe mate


----------



## beech1948

Earlier I had moaned and groaned about business issues we were facing. You all may not be interested and if so please let me know and we will desist from putting up any business type messages.

We are currently using homeworking as a way out of the dilemma for both support techs, sales and admin for 62 souls. The principle issue is the number of customers who call me and say their issue is life or death for their business and they need a tech or sales person yesterday. They don't seem to understand that non-essential travel means we will not be travelling. So far we have had to make only 11 visits to client sites with our person in an isolated room with a terminal. 

I am spending over £1.6 million in getting our customers linked in via their networks so we can still support them remotely. Its become fascinating how many are stumbling over their network access issues and slowing this move down. Currently 61 of over 300+ customers are signed up. This going to be a much slower process than I hoped. We have discussions with Virgin and BT via video tomorrow to try to work out a pre-specc'd network design for secure A to B connections.....I hope it goes well and comes to a conclusive outcome.

We are offering an almost unbreakable network security of 256 bit encryption which is far above anything they normally use and yet they are hesitating due to security issues with their staff. I will not now send out a tech to an AI problem unless they have committed to use a networked approach.....its getting tense in some customers.

Sales are still plugging away but it looks as though we will have to furlough 10 out of 12 staff. Getting these guys back will be a major headache and threaten our forward business. 

No customers have left their service contracts so support staff are possibly safe from disaster. Admin is plugging away with us converting to image scanning and sending these out by email. 
All a bit Heath Robinson but seems to be workable.

We are currently in deep deep survival mode and though not exactly struggling we will miss all financial targets for this year and might and its a only a strong might break-even this year.

Who would have conceived that in the period of 6 weeks we could go from being the 5 or 6th richest economy in the world to being economically crucified.

Al


----------



## RogerS

I appreciate the insight, Al, and can only appreciate a little of the pain and technical complexity. I can relate fully though to dealing with customers ! Please keep letting us know. 

Fingers crossed it all works out well for you.


----------



## doctor Bob

if you have facebook this made me chuckle. (footballer mickey take)

https://www.facebook.com/8423257659/posts/10157946050447660/


----------



## sploo

doctor Bob":3i5ra8m4 said:


> if you have facebook this made me chuckle. (footballer mickey take)
> 
> https://www.facebook.com/8423257659/posts/10157946050447660/


Well, he's got a point; watching a hospital for 90 minutes would be boring :mrgreen:


----------



## Lons

Selwyn":35gg6jfw said:


> The risks of picking it up in the supermarket remain overwhelmingly unlikely


Absolute nonsense! The risks are there without question, anywhere you go where there are other people puts you at risk, exactly where do you get your _expert_ information that risk is minimal?
It's not OK to go shopping, it's allowed only as absolutely necessary, as infrequently as possible and on your own to reduce the risk!
The 2 metre distance is a minimum as we are told by real experts that the virus can travel much further and add to that those people in front of you in the store will have handled food and surfaces where the virus can live for a long time! Do I believe the scientists or you? Hmm I'll need to think about that one. :lol: 

All I said in response to your original post along similar lines was it was very much safer to either get delivery, now almost impossible or what I did via click and collect in which case I actually came into contact with no one, they just loaded the boot and we disinfected when we got home. It's a no brainer and as I said to you previously "use some commonsense man!"


> What I don't like is talk of shooting people in the street and the falsification of the idea food shortages as a major issue (we are now chucking away British milk by the way, and the potato price has collapsed and so has the meat price)- there was no shortage of food despite you getting sand in your knickers about it .


At no time did I get _"sand in my knickers"_ or panicked over food supplies, I criticised the actions of others who did panic buy and caused shortages on the shelves. The only knickers in a twist seems to be yours. :roll: 


> Yes there is a shortage of some niche products and some products typically bought in smaller quantities have spiked.


Hmmm.... My first proper job was with Rank Hovis McDougall as a rep and the market even then was massive so since when did flour become a niche product? 4 million tonnes in UK p.a. I believe worth about £2bn? No flour of any kind available in any of the main supermarkets near us so your statement that panic buying lasted only a week is laughable.
If you're throwing away potatoes send them to the north east where there's a ready market or better still donate them to those needy people out there rather than waste! 


> "I told you there wasn't because I work in this industry"


A friend's lad worked in the food industry for 6 weeks during the school holidays, on a pig farm shovelling sh*t all day long which is precisely what you've been doing on this thread. :wink:


----------



## Just4Fun

I see reports that Boris Johnson has been moved to intensive care.


----------



## FatmanG

I fear Boris is desperately poorly he's now in the I.c.u one thing I know about is the drs etc who work in I.c.u are absolutely top notch. I have him in my prayers


----------



## steve1001

I do hope Boris pulls through. He is such a likeable chap, and deserves to survive.

Steve


----------



## ColeyS1

Still alot of deaths reported today but I feel mildly comfortable that the daily number has decreased from yesterday 

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## RogerS

FatmanG":3ou6l6xz said:


> I fear Boris is desperately poorly he's now in the I.c.u one thing I know about is the drs etc who work in I.c.u are absolutely top notch. I have him in my prayers



Likewise. Sadly the stats are 50%.


----------



## doctor Bob

I hope he pulls through.
As a country we need him to come through this, I think it will raise the mood / spirits of the nation.
Hopefully the tools ignoring all the rules will think twice about their actions, the virus doesn't care about social class and privilege.


----------



## llangatwgnedd

Poor Boris, should have listened to his government.


----------



## RogerS

llangatwgnedd":2qix3bjm said:


> Poor Boris, should have listened to his government.



Meaning what, exactly ?


----------



## Rich C

I'm no fan of Boris, but I hope he makes it because the other options are worse. Can you imagine Priti Patel as the PM? #-o


----------



## MusicMan

beech1948":36fkli4g said:


> Earlier I had moaned and groaned about business issues we were facing. You all may not be interested and if so please let me know and we will desist from putting up any business type messages.
> 
> We are currently using homeworking as a way out of the dilemma for both support techs, sales and admin for 62 souls. The principle issue is the number of customers who call me and say their issue is life or death for their business and they need a tech or sales person yesterday. They don't seem to understand that non-essential travel means we will not be travelling. So far we have had to make only 11 visits to client sites with our person in an isolated room with a terminal.
> 
> I am spending over £1.6 million in getting our customers linked in via their networks so we can still support them remotely. Its become fascinating how many are stumbling over their network access issues and slowing this move down. Currently 61 of over 300+ customers are signed up. This going to be a much slower process than I hoped. We have discussions with Virgin and BT via video tomorrow to try to work out a pre-specc'd network design for secure A to B connections.....I hope it goes well and comes to a conclusive outcome.
> 
> We are offering an almost unbreakable network security of 256 bit encryption which is far above anything they normally use and yet they are hesitating due to security issues with their staff. I will not now send out a tech to an AI problem unless they have committed to use a networked approach.....its getting tense in some customers.
> 
> Sales are still plugging away but it looks as though we will have to furlough 10 out of 12 staff. Getting these guys back will be a major headache and threaten our forward business.
> 
> No customers have left their service contracts so support staff are possibly safe from disaster. Admin is plugging away with us converting to image scanning and sending these out by email.
> All a bit Heath Robinson but seems to be workable.
> 
> We are currently in deep deep survival mode and though not exactly struggling we will miss all financial targets for this year and might and its a only a strong might break-even this year.
> 
> Who would have conceived that in the period of 6 weeks we could go from being the 5 or 6th richest economy in the world to being economically crucified.
> 
> Al



I admire your efforts, investment and foresight in ensuring the survival of your business. Good luck. I hope it will also take your business to the next level after this crisis is over, and that the investment you made will pay off well in the long run. And I, for one, am very interested.

We probably are still going to be the 5th or 6th largest economy. Everyone will be dragged down by this, one way or another.


----------



## Inoffthered

beech1948":2r01jqas said:


> Earlier I had moaned and groaned about business issues we were facing. You all may not be interested and if so please let me know and we will desist from putting up any business type messages.
> 
> We are currently using homeworking as a way out of the dilemma for both support techs, sales and admin for 62 souls. The principle issue is the number of customers who call me and say their issue is life or death for their business and they need a tech or sales person yesterday. They don't seem to understand that non-essential travel means we will not be travelling. So far we have had to make only 11 visits to client sites with our person in an isolated room with a terminal.
> 
> I am spending over £1.6 million in getting our customers linked in via their networks so we can still support them remotely. Its become fascinating how many are stumbling over their network access issues and slowing this move down. Currently 61 of over 300+ customers are signed up. This going to be a much slower process than I hoped. We have discussions with Virgin and BT via video tomorrow to try to work out a pre-specc'd network design for secure A to B connections.....I hope it goes well and comes to a conclusive outcome.
> 
> We are offering an almost unbreakable network security of 256 bit encryption which is far above anything they normally use and yet they are hesitating due to security issues with their staff. I will not now send out a tech to an AI problem unless they have committed to use a networked approach.....its getting tense in some customers.
> 
> Sales are still plugging away but it looks as though we will have to furlough 10 out of 12 staff. Getting these guys back will be a major headache and threaten our forward business.
> 
> No customers have left their service contracts so support staff are possibly safe from disaster. Admin is plugging away with us converting to image scanning and sending these out by email.
> All a bit Heath Robinson but seems to be workable.
> 
> We are currently in deep deep survival mode and though not exactly struggling we will miss all financial targets for this year and might and its a only a strong might break-even this year.
> 
> Who would have conceived that in the period of 6 weeks we could go from being the 5 or 6th richest economy in the world to being economically crucified.
> 
> Al



I don't know what your experience has been in getting any CBILS loans to help your business, but in my experience the banks deserve an almighty kicking. With two banks they each tried to push clients towards their own loans with huge set up fees, expensive interest charges and a demand for security. Having battled to get the forms for CBILS loans, they still get hung up on the security issue as they feel exposed because the government guarantee is only 80%.
Also, they seem to have forgotten why businesses are applying for the loans in the first place. Following the social distancing request and the closure of many businesses, companies are looking to preserve their cash and have stopped paying their suppliers which causes problems all along the supply chain. Some suppliers are also now demanding payment of all outstanding invoices regardless of any agreed credit terms, then they require payment in advance for any future supplies. You can imagine what this does to cash flow projections. Banks then look at the financial forecasts and ask why customers aren't paying and begin to question the viability of the business. Of course this then becomes a circle of doom as the banks don't provide finance under the government scheme, cash flow dries up and the banks become more concerned about the viability of businesses and lend even less. Unless there is a major change of attitude, the banks will be responsible for a total collapse of the business sector and unemployment levels will be huge. Thousands of hitherto profitable businesses will be ruined because the banks refuse to provide the cash flow needed to oil the wheels of commerce.


----------



## rafezetter

Selwyn":3qiim4gc said:


> I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.



So if you don't condone an instant bullet between the eyes (which btw I'm 100% with RogerS on that) what would YOU do with such a person who willingly infects another human being with a life threatening virus?

Arrest and jailing is not a deterrant against crime - because if it were, most countries would have low crime rates, instead of overstuffed prisons.

A fine? They've got to have the money first and I'd dare say at the risk of generalising that that kind of scum won't have any.

Turn them into a labourforce work gang? Still requires a prison and costs the taxpayer £38,000 per year EACH, or £11,000 MORE than the claimed average UK wage.

A bullet is humane for them (because frankly my chosen method of deterrant would be far worse), and cheap for us; after a few dozen of those, filmed and made public - people might actually not do it - you know like an actual WORKING DETERRANT.

This is our first major pandemic in living memory, but for our young children very probably won't be thier last, so lessons learned - or not - will shape thier future.

Personally I think one of the reasons we are in this mess is liberalism - in times of peace liberalism can have it's place, but in times of war, and make no mistake this IS a war, liberalism can, and has, killed people.


----------



## rafezetter

Inoffthered":1rv8jixt said:


> Unless there is a major change of attitude, the banks will be responsible for a total collapse of the business sector and unemployment levels will be huge. Thousands of hitherto profitable businesses will be ruined because the banks refuse to provide the cash flow needed to oil the wheels of commerce.



Was there a major change of attitude with banks in and the years AFTER 2008? (being responsible for a global economic meltdown)

Not that I noticed.

What makes you consider that this time thier thinking will be any different? As long as the BANKS survive everyone else can go **** themselves, it worked for them before.


----------



## Inoffthered

I'm not saying that their thinking is any different and at no point in my post did I suggest that, what I am saying is that unless there is a major change in attitude, the government's good intentions will be thwarted and the economy will be in ruins, and I mean ruins of biblical proportions.


----------



## Ring

Praying for Boris he is a likeable chap I wonder if they are going to try Hydroxychloroquine it seems to have good results!


----------



## RogerS

Inoffthered":2x99bk8z said:


> I'm not saying that their thinking is any different and at no point in my post did I suggest that, what I am saying is that unless there is a major change in attitude, the government's good intentions will be thwarted and the economy will be in ruins, and I mean ruins of biblical proportions.



Does a leopard change its' spots ? We - that is you and I and corporation taxes bailed out those shysters after 2008...an event caused by their greed and avarice. Now, we're asking them to help and what is their response ? Greed and avarice.


----------



## Marineboy

Re the comments on Boris, I think people should take a moment before expressing any negative or flippant remarks. I have my own views about his morals, his truthfulness, and his ability, but at the end of the day he is a human being with parents, siblings, children and a partner. That needs to be respected.


----------



## FatmanG

Anyone who wishes anything other than the best for Boris because of something he did or said in the past in my opinion is not a nice person and not a person i would wish to know on any level. A fashionable quote amongst celebrities and one that I actually like is:
Only God can judge


----------



## Andy Kev.

rafezetter":214bf9yu said:


> Selwyn":214bf9yu said:
> 
> 
> 
> I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So if you don't condone an instant bullet between the eyes (which btw I'm 100% with RogerS on that) what would YOU do with such a person who willingly infects another human being with a life threatening virus?
> 
> Arrest and jailing is not a deterrant against crime - because if it were, most countries would have low crime rates, instead of overstuffed prisons.
> 
> A fine? They've got to have the money first and I'd dare say at the risk of generalising that that kind of scum won't have any.
> 
> Turn them into a labourforce work gang? Still requires a prison and costs the taxpayer £38,000 per year EACH, or £11,000 MORE than the claimed average UK wage.
> 
> A bullet is humane for them (because frankly my chosen method of deterrant would be far worse), and cheap for us; after a few dozen of those, filmed and made public - people might actually not do it - you know like an actual WORKING DETERRANT.
> 
> This is our first major pandemic in living memory, but for our young children very probably won't be thier last, so lessons learned - or not - will shape thier future.
> 
> Personally I think one of the reasons we are in this mess is liberalism - in times of peace liberalism can have it's place, but in times of war, and make no mistake this IS a war, liberalism can, and has, killed people.
Click to expand...

I think the problem is that we in the western world generally have, in material terms, soft and easy lives. Our justice system has also become very soft. A couple of centuries ago you would receive the most dire punishment for e.g. theft. This was rightly recognised as being too harsh on people who often were so destitute that they had no alternative to crime.

I've thought for some time that for some crimes we need to have the option of sentences which carry a degree of brutality as these would be proportionately more effective against people used to a soft life. For offences like the one in question, which are utterly unprovoked, potentially deadly and which can only regarded as being "recreational", I would have thought that severe and extremely painful (possibly public) floggings would be the answer. The stocks could be available for lesser offences like vandalism. Such sentences would be quick, cheap to administer and, I imagine, highly effective in their deterrent influence.

I realise that such a view will provoke outrage from some but I think it worthy of serious consideration. FWIW I want to see a society where people are kind, polite and considerate of their fellows. It might seem odd to resort to such recommendations for dealing with the extreme fringes of civil behaviour.

I realise that this is somewhat off topic but corona is giving rise to a number of side issues.


----------



## Rorschach

Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Rorschach":1e6uc5dc said:


> Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.


I presume that's not directed at me as I don't remember having that discussion with you.


----------



## FatmanG

Rorschach":iimz39vx said:


> Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.


Mate if you actually believe what you have just posted is true then i genuinely feel for you


----------



## Rorschach

FatmanG":44f3v6e2 said:


> Mate if you actually believe what you have just posted is true then i genuinely feel for you



Have you read the recent posts by people like RogerS?



Andy Kev.":44f3v6e2 said:


> I presume that's not directed at me as I don't remember having that discussion with you.



No, I can't see you condoning anything like that in previous posts unless I missed something.


----------



## FatmanG

Rorschach":1pxje2bu said:


> FatmanG":1pxje2bu said:
> 
> 
> 
> Mate if you actually believe what you have just posted is true then i genuinely feel for you
> 
> 
> 
> 
> *Have you read the recent posts by people like RogerS?
> *
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":1pxje2bu said:
> 
> 
> 
> I presume that's not directed at me as I don't remember having that discussion with you.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> No, I can't see you condoning anything like that in previous posts unless I missed something.
Click to expand...


I have had my issues with RogerS in the past so don't think me and him are buddies but he was talking about someone who actually attacked and spat/coughed on a nurse/care worker. Just think about the current climate and what that could mean. RogerS is talking about the consequence of that behaviour in how it should be dealt with. Comparing that with your posts about corrupt police and how front line workers are not heroes they know what there in for posts is not right. RogerS was responding to an actual incident, you were giving your opinion on a vast majority of people, people we need right now and it wasn't a very high opinion of their qualities. Vastly different one opinion that was relevant one that was definitely not.


----------



## MikeG.

Marineboy":24f33op5 said:


> Re the comments on Boris, I think people should take a moment before expressing any negative or flippant remarks. I have my own views about his morals, his truthfulness, and his ability, but at the end of the day he is a human being with parents, siblings, children and a partner. That needs to be respected.



Further, he won the last general election overwhelmingly, and has not only a democratic but a constitutional mandate and role, and that too needs respect.


----------



## Rorschach

FatmanG":91d3rr01 said:


> I have had my issues with RogerS in the past so don't think me and him are buddies but he was talking about someone who actually attacked and spat/coughed on a nurse/care worker. Just think about the current climate and what that could mean. RogerS is talking about the consequence of that behaviour in how it should be dealt with. Comparing that with your posts about corrupt police and how front line workers are not heroes they know what there in for posts is not right. RogerS was responding to an actual incident, you were giving your opinion on a vast majority of people, people we need right now and it wasn't a very high opinion of their qualities. Vastly different one opinion that was relevant one that was definitely not.



Should someone who does that be punished? Of course, severely, almost certainly. Should they be instantly shot dead on the street by a vigilante? Roger tried to take the moral high ground and look down on me for my opinions that differed from his own. Based on what he said though he has no right to do so. It's not the comparison of views, it's the attitude he held.


----------



## Droogs

@AndyKev
You may be interested to know that the King of Nepal passed a decree that anyone caught breaking the corona curfew without proper authority to do so, chit to go out kinda thing - is to be placed in public stocks according to a friend of mine who lives there


----------



## Rorschach

Andy Kev.":30qypfif said:


> I think the problem is that we in the western world generally have, in material terms, soft and easy lives. Our justice system has also become very soft. A couple of centuries ago you would receive the most dire punishment for e.g. theft. This was rightly recognised as being too harsh on people who often were so destitute that they had no alternative to crime.
> 
> I've thought for some time that for some crimes we need to have the option of sentences which carry a degree of brutality as these would be proportionately more effective against people used to a soft life. For offences like the one in question, which are utterly unprovoked, potentially deadly and which can only regarded as being "recreational", I would have thought that severe and extremely painful (possibly public) floggings would be the answer. The stocks could be available for lesser offences like vandalism. Such sentences would be quick, cheap to administer and, I imagine, highly effective in their deterrent influence.
> 
> I realise that such a view will provoke outrage from some but I think it worthy of serious consideration. FWIW I want to see a society where people are kind, polite and considerate of their fellows. It might seem odd to resort to such recommendations for dealing with the extreme fringes of civil behaviour.
> 
> I realise that this is somewhat off topic but corona is giving rise to a number of side issues.



Ah I now realise this is the post you are referring to.

I agree that in certain areas our justice system has become too soft/ineffective. That being said crime still continues to fall and the world continues to become a safer place. I am afraid I don't agree that we need to make punishments more severe but I do think we need a bit of reform to some areas. I am glad to see you don't condone the disgusting views aired by others here such as summary justice and vigilante murder.


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":alwxdzsv said:


> Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.



Rorschach, you need to just slow down and take a deep breath. If a mate of yours in a pub said "that fool deserves a bullet between the eyes", how would you react? Would you assume he was talking literally, and that it was only the fear of being caught that stopped him from murdering the said individual, or would you understand immediately that this was a figure of speech? 

Now, if you think the former, please ring up the police and report Roger. His surname is easily available, and the post which so offended you is still available here as evidence. Go on, put your morals to the test...ring them and report this crime (as you see it). 

Or you could take the rational approach of understanding that using hyperbole is standard every day stuff. You yourself will use a figure of speech, an idiom, a phrasal verb, before your mid morning tea break, I promise you. It serves your purpose, for some reason I can't fathom, to allow different standards for yourself than you do for others with regards to figures of speech, and whatever you think of Roger it doesn't reflect well on you to deliberately mis-represent the nature of someone's words.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Droogs,

that is interesting and to me it sounds a little severe just for breaking a curfew. Maybe a warning for a first offence and then the stocks for a second.

Of course we don't know what the conditions are in Nepalese cities. His policy could conceivably be justified.


----------



## Lons

Rorschach":286e72ty said:


> Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.


There are corrupt and power mad people in all walks of life and all establishments of course there are as human nature includes greed as instinct but if you actually lived as neighbours to some of those offenders which my brother does or have worked in a prison which my wife did and a number of close friends still do then you might perhaps have a different view on how some of them should be punished and punished is the whole point. Soft prisons which they all are just make for more clued up offenders and for the majority are not the answer.
I'm not sure what is the answer but punishment needs to be a deterrent to re-offending!

As far as "vigilante murder", think again and as suggested several pages ago by Mike, look up the word hyperbole. If you really think Roger would stomp up and down the high street waving a rifle at people you're watching too many films imo.

_EDIT: Roscharch I've just noticed your last post and that of MikeG so mine is a little out of date._


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":2pfn4s0g said:


> Or you could take the rational approach of understanding that using hyperbole is standard every day stuff. You yourself will use a figure of speech, an idiom, a phrasal verb, before your mid morning tea break, I promise you. It serves your purpose, for some reason I can't fathom, to allow different standards for yourself than you do for others with regards to figures of speech, and whatever you think of Roger it doesn't reflect well on you to deliberately mis-represent the nature of someone's words.



That's fair, real world comment. If I had to cough up a tenner for every time I've said something like, "X should be shot" where X = a leading politician, sports commentator, footballer, arts type, crook or Elton John, I'd probably have had to take out a loan.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":1247d0g1 said:


> Rorschach, you need to just slow down and take a deep breath. If a mate of yours in a pub said "that fool deserves a bullet between the eyes", how would you react? Would you assume he was talking literally, and that it was only the fear of being caught that stopped him from murdering the said individual, or would you understand immediately that this was a figure of speech?
> 
> Now, if you think the former, please ring up the police and report Roger. His surname is easily available, and the post which so offended you is still available here as evidence. Go on, put your morals to the test...ring them and report this crime (as you see it).
> 
> Or you could take the rational approach of understanding that using hyperbole is standard every day stuff. You yourself will use a figure of speech, an idiom, a phrasal verb, before your mid morning tea break, I promise you. It serves your purpose, for some reason I can't fathom, to allow different standards for yourself than you do for others with regards to figures of speech, and whatever you think of Roger it doesn't reflect well on you to deliberately mis-represent the nature of someone's words.



I understand hyperbole and I agree, there are things said in conversation that people do not necessarily condone. Had Roger actually said that though, or has he confirmed that he does indeed think this suitable? And not just Roger, others here have said the same. Hyperbole when saying an off the cuff remark is one thing, taking the time to write it out and then confirm it again is another.
I do appreciate your remarks though and trying to bring some sensibility but at the moment I believe you to be wrong and I think those people really do mean it, I hope that isn't the case.

As to my own differing standards, could you be more specific as to where you think I was being hyperbolic? I am not to proud to clarify my statements or retract them where I might have gone too far. I know I am not a perfect moral arbiter, far from it, they are only opinions after all and subject to change.


----------



## Droogs

Nepal is following the total lock-down route. They basically went round and got all the tourists during Jan/Feb and got them repatriated. They have had I think less than 50 cases so far. All borders are closed except for essential goods basically. They do only have around 500 ITU type beds for the country as a whole, all private hospitals have been told to treat Covid cases for free and may not pass on any patients to state hospitals. They have had 5 deaths and 4 of those were Nepalis in New York


----------



## Andy Kev.

Droogs":1oymwwkr said:


> Nepal is following the total lock-down route. They basically went round and got all the tourists during Jan/Feb and got them repatriated. They have had I think less than 50 cases so far. All borders are closed except for essential goods basically. They do only have around 500 ITU type beds for the country as a whole, all private hospitals have been told to treat Covid cases for free and may not pass on any patients to state hospitals. They have had 5 deaths and 4 of those were Nepalis in New York


In that case it may well be a sensible policy. It's also probably relatively easy to achieve complete isolation in a Himalayan country. One or two places, like Bhutan, already strictly control the number of visits by foreigners so as to preserve their cultures.


----------



## John Brown

That's it. I'm giving up woodworking almost before I've begun. There's obviously some side effect of sawdust inhalation.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Droogs":3bh1jo91 said:


> Nepal is following the total lock-down route. They basically went round and got all the tourists during Jan/Feb and got them repatriated. They have had I think less than 50 cases so far.


One can only hope they took all their (used) toilet paper with them..... :lol: 

https://www.himalmag.com/following-the- ... per-trail/


----------



## MikeG.

Rorschach":ntty34bp said:


> ........As to my own differing standards, could you be more specific as to where you think I was being hyperbolic?........



I didn't say you were hyperbolic. I said you use figures of speech. Hyperbole is only one of millions (see what I did there?) of figures of speech. You have chosen to take one figure of speech absolutely literally, and you've just doubled down (as the Americans say) on that. You actually believe that Roger is calling for people to be shot in the street. I'm afraid that at that point you lost the chance to claim rationality in your arguments.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Rich C":2zg7lu30 said:


> I'm no fan of Boris, but I hope he makes it because the other options are worse. Can you imagine Priti Patel as the PM? #-o


My wife did a double take this morning when she heard that "Dominic's in charge...."


----------



## Lons

Andy Kev.":1cc18ekr said:


> That's fair, real world comment. If I had to cough up a tenner for every time I've said something like, "X should be shot" where X = a leading politician, sports commentator, footballer, arts type, crook or Elton John, I'd probably have had to take out a loan.



I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.

Don't depend on that loan Andy, the banks won't lend it! :wink:


----------



## Blackswanwood

Lons":3ugznksg said:


> I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.



As this thread has moved off Coronavirus I don't feel bad about taking it further and asking whether the expression to swing for someone relates to throwing a punch or hanging them? Lons - unlike most people on here today I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right - just wondered and happy to be educated!!


----------



## FatmanG

Blackswanwood":2g72b8w2 said:


> Lons":2g72b8w2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As this thread has moved off Coronavirus I don't feel bad about taking it further and asking whether the *expression to swing for someone relates to throwing a punch or hanging them*? Lons - unlike most people on here today I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right - just wondered and happy to be educated!!
Click to expand...


Until i read this I hadn't realised it could of meant the latter in the example. I always thought it meant throwing a punch. This thread has made me realise how little proper education i received compared to most lol in other words im thick


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":18soq18e said:


> I didn't say you were hyperbolic. I said you use figures of speech. Hyperbole is only one of millions (see what I did there?) of figures of speech. You have chosen to take one figure of speech absolutely literally, and you've just doubled down (as the Americans say) on that. You actually believe that Roger is calling for people to be shot in the street. I'm afraid that at that point you lost the chance to claim rationality in your arguments.



Fair enough. Well I hope it is just hyperbole from Roger, though I would prefer to see him confirm it to be honest.
The point was aimed at others (mostly Roger). I would like to quote rafezetter. Now is this just hyperbole? This wasn't said in the heat of the moment, he carefully thought out this post:



rafezetter":18soq18e said:


> So if you don't condone an instant bullet between the eyes (which btw I'm 100% with RogerS on that) what would YOU do with such a person who willingly infects another human being with a life threatening virus?
> 
> A bullet is humane for them (because frankly my chosen method of deterrant would be far worse), and cheap for us; after a few dozen of those, filmed and made public - people might actually not do it - you know like an actual WORKING DETERRANT.


----------



## Droogs

On a lighter note, the missus just told me the Israeli health minister (hasidic fanaticist) who was going round telling people that covid19 was a punishment from upstairs for being homosexual has just been confirmed to have it. oooh er

you cant make this stuff up man


----------



## Rorschach

Droogs":25su6ld9 said:


> On a lighter note, the missus just told me the Israeli health minister (hasidic fanaticist) who was going round telling people that covid19 was a punishment from upstairs for being homosexual has just been confirmed to have it. oooh er
> 
> you cant make this stuff up man



He who doth protest the loudest :twisted:


----------



## Geoff_S

Blackswanwood":24rrelk7 said:


> Lons":24rrelk7 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As this thread has moved off Coronavirus I don't feel bad about taking it further and asking whether the expression to swing for someone relates to throwing a punch or hanging them? Lons - unlike most people on here today I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right - just wondered and happy to be educated!!
Click to expand...


I think it means you are the one "happy to swing for them", as you've killed the person that has offended you.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Geoff_S":kmh547d1 said:


> Blackswanwood":kmh547d1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Lons":kmh547d1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As this thread has moved off Coronavirus I don't feel bad about taking it further and asking whether the expression to swing for someone relates to throwing a punch or hanging them? Lons - unlike most people on here today I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right - just wondered and happy to be educated!!
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I think it means you are the one "happy to swing for them", as you've killed the person that has offended you.
Click to expand...


Looks like I've overstated the lengths I'm prepared to go to over the years :lol:


----------



## selectortone

I was on the fence about all this shooting lowlife scum debate, until I read in my local Bournemouth paper today that a 23 year old man has been arrested on suspicion of stealing NHS workers' bicycles from outside the hospital here. I'm just lost for words at that.

https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/ ... h-hospital


----------



## D_W

Even in times of crisis, there will be idiots in the population. Let's not forget that there are plenty of mentally ill running around, along with sociopaths, psychopaths, addicts, etc. 

They're still there. I'm not a huge fan of the news loving to tell us the "oh my God, would you believe how low people are? Look at this story". 

Yes, I'd believe it. Why would it change. As a journalist, please find us something new that we didn't know before...(as in, something that is actually news by definition).


----------



## SBJ

Doesn't seem like hyperbole to me. These seem to be carefully selected words. Vigilante violence, definitely the way forward. 

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## Droogs

just noticed that our intrepid leaders are now only giving us the numbers of people who have died in hospital. I wonder if that has anything to do with the letter they sent to care home residents basically telling them they are being left to die if they get this wretched thing as they will not be transferred to hospital nor be given a ventilator. Bunch of ...


----------



## steve1001

just noticed that our intrepid leaders are now only giving us the numbers of people who have died in hospital. I wonder if that has anything to do with the letter they sent to care home residents basically telling them they are being left to die if they get this wretched thing as they will not be transferred to hospital nor be given a ventilator. Bunch of ...

2+2=5


----------



## Lons

Blackswanwood":1j5sn62b said:


> Lons":1j5sn62b said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'd suggest that it's very likely the vast majority of people have said it, some more often than others throughout their lives. My dad's usual was " I'll swing for him", no good since the abolished hanging of course.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> As this thread has moved off Coronavirus I don't feel bad about taking it further and asking whether the expression to swing for someone relates to throwing a punch or hanging them? Lons - unlike most people on here today I'm not saying you are wrong and I am right - just wondered and happy to be educated!!
Click to expand...


Definitely swing by the neck as it's a very long time ago and when they still used the death penalty.


----------



## Bodgers

Droogs":1yeyyaa9 said:


> just noticed that our intrepid leaders are now only giving us the numbers of people who have died in hospital. I wonder if that has anything to do with the letter they sent to care home residents basically telling them they are being left to die if they get this wretched thing as they will not be transferred to hospital nor be given a ventilator. Bunch of ...
> 
> 2+2=5


Again, let’s try and keep this accurate.

The exact reverse is true...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... first-time

Try to at least mention sources, even if you don’t link to them when bringing something new up.

Even your care home comment is dubious. There have been some care home managers that have refused to take or accept back patients from hospital, but no such national order has been given in writing.


----------



## steve1001

Oops, sorry. I forgot some quote marks in my post.

It was Droogs who wrote ....



> just noticed that our intrepid leaders are now only giving us the numbers of people who have died in hospital. I wonder if that has anything to do with the letter they sent to care home residents basically telling them they are being left to die if they get this wretched thing as they will not be transferred to hospital nor be given a ventilator. Bunch of ...



I responded and wrote '2+2=5' to that.

Sorry for the confusion.

Steve


----------



## Rorschach

Death figures are fairly meaningless without proper testing and autopsies. Only testing is happening in hospitals so even their figures are skewed, adding in "suspected" numbers as well just makes things look even worse. At the very least they should be categorised separately.


----------



## SammyQ

Death figures are gathered differently - and at different times/rates - by the various authorites. Ergo, even the coarse statistics are, as R. says above, dubious.
Without both test regimes, antigen and antibody, in six figures each, we cannot quantify, map, strategise, erradicate. Presently, we are effectively 'blindfolded' and 'firefighting', without a definitive plan. 

Sam


----------



## MikeG.

SammyQ":1cpy4yjy said:


> ........Without both test regimes, antigen and antibody, in six figures each, we cannot quantify, map, strategise, erradicate. Presently, we are effectively 'blindfolded' and 'firefighting', without a definitive plan.



And yet the Chinese have managed to wipe it out entirely. You're words are hyperbolic.


----------



## Rorschach

MikeG.":2guhm26h said:


> SammyQ":2guhm26h said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........Without both test regimes, antigen and antibody, in six figures each, we cannot quantify, map, strategise, erradicate. Presently, we are effectively 'blindfolded' and 'firefighting', without a definitive plan.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> And yet the Chinese have managed to wipe it out entirely. You're words are hyperbolic.
Click to expand...


I think you are the hyperbolic one this time Mike :lol: 

Need to take any information from China with a massive pinch of salt!

I am not saying they are outright lying, nor am I a conspiracy theorist but you will not get the full truth from China.


----------



## MikeG.

There are international health statisticians pouring over the Chinese figures, and they haven't found any obvious flaws. The Wuhan lockdown has been lifted. Now, whether or not there are remnant cases, there clearly is no ongoing epidemic...and the point is, Sam just said achieving anything at all against this virus is impossible because we don't have tests, accurate figures, and a plan. He is flat out wrong on the claim that it can't be beaten without those things, even if he is right (and he isn't) that we don't have figures, plans and tests.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Apparently in the debate about the figures all bets are off until reliable data have been gathered about the number people who have had it but who have displayed few or no symptoms. These data may have a huge effect on how we view the virus. If, say, 50% of the of the population who had it displayed no symptoms or symptoms that didn't make them go to the doctor, then the mortality % plummets. The Germans are doing a data gathering exercise to this end in Munich, where they will interview 3,000 people so as to have a decent sample.

I'm more confirmed than ever in my view that we won't be able to talk sensibly about this disease until it has all died down.


----------



## Lons

Andy Kev.":q4j7lpkg said:


> I'm more confirmed than ever in my view that we won't be able to talk sensibly about this disease until it has all died down.



Yep!
We're on 100 pages of arguments and opinions that in reality matter not one jot. We will never know the true extent of numbers affected as it will not be practical or affordable to test the whole UK population for antibodies so will be an estimate based on sample numbers.

The one thing that matters at the minute is that it's here and it's serious, the virus is killing a thousands of people directly and indirectly and *no-one* is safe, we all have already or are likely to lose family members, friends, neighbours, colleagues or at very least people we know and those who don't believe that and deliberately flout the rules. I'll be staying well away from all of them for as long as is physically possible.
I for one am comfortable that the government, scientists and medics are working flat out to get on top of it and the inquisition on how things were handled can come at the right time at the end of this war.

Just as an aside, I learned yesterday from a friend involved that they're parking up freezer lorries to store bodies. This is local but I'd guess it has happened nationally. 
A sobering thought! :shock:


----------



## sploo

MikeG.":pun321im said:


> There are international health statisticians pouring over the Chinese figures, and they haven't found any obvious flaws. The Wuhan lockdown has been lifted. Now, whether or not there are remnant cases, there clearly is no ongoing epidemic...and the point is, Sam just said achieving anything at all against this virus is impossible because we don't have tests, accurate figures, and a plan. He is flat out wrong on the claim that it can't be beaten without those things, even if he is right (and he isn't) that we don't have figures, plans and tests.


It'll be interesting to see how that goes; point being - unless there's become huge herd immunity in that area, then as soon as lockdowns are lifted you start the process of infection again. The virus itself is still present (in "the world") so it's inevitable that people will catch it.

Until there is either significant acquired herd immunity (something that would likely come at the cost of large number of deaths) or a vaccine is developed, then it'll continue to be a threat.


----------



## MikeG.

They still have isolation and social distancing in force, and a rigorous follow up of all contacts with new cases. What has been lifted is the complete ban on travel to and from the city, and the closing of all businesses which are now being opened up in a phased manner. In other words, it's very far from business as usual, but it is indicative of a startling success in turning the infection rate and death figures around. And to reiterate, this has been done without those things Sam said were necessary to defeat the virus.


----------



## SammyQ

> And yet the Chinese have managed to wipe it out entirely.



Mike, the official Chinese figures are treated with some scepticism to put it mildly. May I also point out "to wipe it out entirely" implies a vaccine or cure is in their hands? What I think you are referring to is that they have managed to contain it? Agreed. They did so with a degree of people tracking and whole community (e.g. apartment blocks = "community") isolation that we have not managed. Nor would I wish that degree of 'Big Brother' to be visited upon us. 
Thirdly, although:


> The Wuhan lockdown has been lifted. Now, whether or not there are remnant cases, there clearly is no ongoing epidemic


If that were true, the Chinese authorities would NOT be testing, testing, testing incoming visitors at airports etc. Clearly, they are fearing an upsurge in cases imported into China.
But, and it's crucial that we do so, we must track this disease and prevent it's spread until a vacine/cure becomes available. To do so we must "test, test, test". Spotting a source and isolating it, is our best policy for avoiding mass infection until a vacine becomes available. Antigen (potential to infect) and antibody (have you - unknowingly perhaps - had the disease? ) are both necessary to mapping the spread. 60 million people in U.K., you do the maths. 
Having established where, and how much, you can then target your resources effectively. This is a paraphrasing of 'standard' epidemiological procedure to deal with infectious diseases. 
Sam


----------



## MikeG.

SammyQ":1qf1cxci said:


> ......... (have you - unknowingly perhaps - had the disease? ).......



:lol: :lol: No, I bloody-well knew it. :lol: 

Sam, your basic point was that it is impossible to succeed against this virus without tests it is impossible to plan, strategise and eradicate this disease. That's overstating it, as the Chinese have shown. As the Italians are showing. As the Spanish are showing. As I have no doubt we'll be showing within 10 days or so.


----------



## SammyQ

Mike, I so hope you are right. Whatever works is fine in my book; I have no problem being proved wrong with this pestilence. 

Sam


----------



## sploo

I think this depends on what we mean by "beat". A full lockdown will definitely be effective; but only until the lockdown is ended. That is, unless we could achieve a lockdown so complete that anyone who's caught it either passes away or recovers (and is no longer infectious to others) - such that there's now no one in the population that has it. Not impossible, but probably optimistic.


----------



## Jake

MikeG.":2pr0pywd said:


> Sam, your basic point was that it is impossible to succeed against this virus without tests it is impossible to plan, strategise and eradicate this disease. That's overstating it, as the Chinese have shown. As the Italians are showing. As the Spanish are showing. As I have no doubt we'll be showing within 10 days or so.



The point is that if/when lock down is successful in suppressing new cases, you have an opportunity to pursue containment again (or for a first time with any real effort), which needs contact tracing and testing to isolate spreaders. 

I think our government might be planning not to do that, but to use hospital demand as the trigger for loosening/tightening restrictions in waves, but that's speculative.

Although there was a great deal of publicity around lifting the Wuhan lock-down, the Chinese locked down a county in another province a week or so ago. They are reported to be aggressively contact tracing there (although SMCP does not appear to serve the full page anymore to me at at least). 
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... s-get-back
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society ... s-carriers


----------



## Jake

Interesting and potentially positive (although early days) article from one of the better news sources on COVID.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/08/doc ... -covid-19/


----------



## beech1948

So sitting here today in my almost abandoned business I ask myself "What is the desired end game for all this lock down stuff"

1) I am 72 so I am at risk and keeping very much to my self. My business would collapse if I were not around to keep it going. Not that I am indispensable merely that only I care enough to keep it going. 
2) Until there is a vaccine available then this disease will not be killed off and I am still vulnerable
3) Masks are only a tiny help and probably not worth much
4) If there is no vaccine until 2021 then I will have to endure 12 months and possibly longer of lock down.
5) Businesses being allowed to resume doing biz seems to be a negative gamble by the Government....the incidence of the disease will simply rapidly increase again if no vaccine
6) China claims of "winning" the battle are false as they will suffer the re-infection cycle as will many other countries. China has shown itself to be unreliable as to figures and claims. A parasite.
7) A way out is testing. The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.
8) Having tested the nation then this needs to recur every 3 months for maybe 12 months.
9) Costs of testing are high but so is the likely final death toll.

Chances of the politico's seeing the truth of this is about zero leaving me with few options.


----------



## MusicMan

The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0


----------



## MusicMan

beech1948":231r5qyk said:


> So sitting here today in my almost abandoned business I ask myself "What is the desired end game for all this lock down stuff"
> 
> 1) I am 72 so I am at risk and keeping very much to my self. My business would collapse if I were not around to keep it going. Not that I am indispensable merely that only I care enough to keep it going.
> 2) Until there is a vaccine available then this disease will not be killed off and I am still vulnerable
> 3) Masks are only a tiny help and probably not worth much
> 4) If there is no vaccine until 2021 then I will have to endure 12 months and possibly longer of lock down.
> 5) Businesses being allowed to resume doing biz seems to be a negative gamble by the Government....the incidence of the disease will simply rapidly increase again if no vaccine
> 6) China claims of "winning" the battle are false as they will suffer the re-infection cycle as will many other countries. China has shown itself to be unreliable as to figures and claims. A parasite.
> 7) A way out is testing. The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.
> 8) Having tested the nation then this needs to recur every 3 months for maybe 12 months.
> 9) Costs of testing are high but so is the likely final death toll.
> 
> Chances of the politico's seeing the truth of this is about zero leaving me with few options.



I agree with all of this and am likewise preparing for a long lockdown for us old and immune-compromised folk. The younger ones may be released earlier.

There are several ways of exiting from lockdown. The models for how best to do this are rudimentary at the moment, but a very large effort by hundreds (if not thousands) of modelling scientists from every discipline has just started (see that Reuters article in my previous post). This is not too late, but actually quite early, because the data are still lacking, and will be until the mass testing program Beech mentions is well under way. In the meantime we have to estimate parameters from data from Germany and other countries, which have somewhat different conditions. Testing is not itself a way out, but enables us to discover the best way out.


----------



## GrahamF

Well, the situation has just been brought home to me. A friend's wife phoned this morning to tell me he's died in hospital from the virus after being admitted for another complaint. He caught it there so, take extra care to not visit casualty, it may be kill rather than cure!


----------



## RogerS

Well, I'm a year younger than Beech and although retired have a millstone around my neck which is renovating this damn house. With the lockdown in place, it's very difficult to plan and source materials as everyone else is finding. 

Am I worried about catching it ? Not really. If the worst comes to the worst, I've got oddles of life-cover - put in place long before Covid-19 and confirmed that Covid-19 has no bearing on any claim. Enough for SWMBO to get someone in to finish it off so she can sell up as it's not an 'easy' house to live in. And in a perverse kind of way, catching it would be a relief. No more 'will I, won't I'. Just as long as I don't infect anyone else.

It does focus the mind though. To that end, in the safe, is a sheet with all my passwords and details of all my bank accounts, savings accounts, credit cards etc. So even if I fall under a bus tomorrow, she'll be able to pick up the reins.


----------



## sploo

GrahamF":3vjfjpsk said:


> Well, the situation has just been brought home to me. A friend's wife phoned this morning to tell me he's died in hospital from the virus after being admitted for another complaint. He caught it there so, take extra care to not visit casualty, it may be kill rather than cure!


Very sorry to hear Graham. A friend of mine ended up in hospital with it (ICU etc). Fortunately he's pulled through and is home now; though still rather unwell. It's all too real isn't it.


----------



## D_W

MikeG.":3c375hg4 said:


> They still have isolation and social distancing in force, and a rigorous follow up of all contacts with new cases. What has been lifted is the complete ban on travel to and from the city, and the closing of all businesses which are now being opened up in a phased manner. In other words, it's very far from business as usual, but it is indicative of a startling success in turning the infection rate and death figures around. And to reiterate, this has been done without those things Sam said were necessary to defeat the virus.



They also have the ability to curate a message ( so even if they have 100 deaths per day somewhere due to covid, their published number can be zero.)

Any questioning of information is grounds for disappearance. Tied in with that is extreme efficiency in convincing citizens that adherence leads to safety, and questioning leads to a potential lack of the same. 

Anyone who allows travelers into a country anywhere is at risk of this starting an outbreak within days or weeks until it becomes old hat due to all of us or most of us having antibodies. Even iran is taking pot shots at china over their claims.


----------



## MikeG.

beech1948":2p4w1r0g said:


> .........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........



Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.

Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.

Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.


----------



## MusicMan

MikeG.":1t9exd17 said:


> beech1948":1t9exd17 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.
> 
> Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.
> 
> Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.
Click to expand...


Your last point is true, Mike, but the vaccine is likely at least a year away, even if the present candidates work. And antiviral drugs are both rare and tend to have nasty side effects. They basically help you to survive while your body combats the virus, but they are not something to take lightly, whatever Trump says. The point of modelling and designing the exit strategy is to minimise the deaths that will occur between now and the ready availability of the vaccine, and to keep the NHS at a manageable load, ie in the next year (ish). That is why we need lots of testing now. You are right that we don't yet have the have-I-had-it test but it is important that we get it before too long (weeks). I do think we need a lot of testing in the next year, but once a vaccine is available it should be much less used. Though mutations will probably always be with us, so we will live with COVID-19 in some form (hopefully manageable) for a very long time. 

Accurate modelling of the exit strategy - by many groups cooperating, not just one or two - could make the difference of many thousands of deaths.

I agree with your first point! 

Keith


----------



## RogerS

Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.

But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.


----------



## GrahamF

MusicMan":22e66mxa said:


> ....... we need lots of testing now. You are right that we don't yet have the have-I-had-it test but it is important that we get it before too long (weeks). I do think we need a lot of testing in the next year, but once a vaccine is available it should be much less used. Though mutations will probably always be with us, so we will live with COVID-19 in some form (hopefully manageable) for a very long time.Keith



I can see testing for health and care staff being very useful and they could be tested daily but, a one off test for members of the general public at this point in time may well lead to complacency and potential unrest - I don't have it so why won't you let me out? Because negative to day, doesn't mean you don't catch it on the way home from the test.


----------



## GrahamF

RogerS":2efgannd said:


> Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.
> 
> But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.



Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak it would have been far worse without the lock down so there's nothing in reality to forgive.

Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.

We need another BUY BRITISH campaign like we had a couple of decades (or was it longer) ago. Support our industry, **** the rest and get the place moving again.


----------



## FatmanG

One thing the lockdown guarantees is time to think. Maybe in the long run we can see a lot of good come out of an awful situation. Yes things are going to change, jobs, economy, businesses failing etc but we are a resourceful race and there will be new opportunities for people with the ideas. Its always been this way. I do hope that we as a country can come together and rebuild communities that were ruined through the Thatcher years. I am not blaming Thatcher nor making it political i just meant that as a nation there was a big change with industries like coal basically ending which changed communities. Maybe the world will return to being a much bigger place and the pace of life slows down. I don't know


----------



## Blackswanwood

GrahamF":1bn3i7qs said:


> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.



Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?


----------



## GrahamF

Blackswanwood":20v2kkhz said:


> GrahamF":20v2kkhz said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.
> 
> 
> 
> Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?
Click to expand...


I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.

I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.


----------



## Jake

MusicMan":1sh3ps58 said:


> The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0



Sure is, especially combined with LSHTM's paper summarising what they modelled and when. Mr Edmunds' full story will be even more interesting in time.


----------



## Lons

MusicMan":3gqwdzl7 said:


> The Reuters report on the scientific advice etc is quite interesting:
> 
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... abRHCzQ9n0


very interesting Keith, thanks for the link.


----------



## D_W

GrahamF":1ohpv9mp said:


> Blackswanwood":1ohpv9mp said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GrahamF":1ohpv9mp said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.
> 
> 
> 
> Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.
> 
> I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.
Click to expand...


I wonder what those struggling businesses would do without the ability to borrow. 

I also wonder what all of the rank and file employees of banks deserve in terms of attitudes toward them. I think there's probably an antiquated view that banks are mostly made of executives and business deconstruction hawks. There are some of those, but I'd bet the bulk of the revenues go to shareholders (have a pension or live in a municipality that has one?) and rank and file employees with a few getting large cuts - but the amounts they get being relatively insignificant in terms of the expenses that bank clients incur. 

Take away the banks and the groups who need capital or operating loans will end up dealing with folks who ask for a whole lot more in turn. 

Here in the states, most of the banks and mortgage originators aren't looking to give you 5 dollars and have you give them back 6 tomorrow -they're securitizing debt and thing it to open market lenders (as in, your savings or fixed asset allocations from pension plans). The banks don't want to hold the loans, they want to originate them and move them on to groups who have the money to lend. Margin. 

They operate in their own interest, of course, but check out the post about airlines. Is there something more noble about them? What about other businesses that require constant subsidy that you don't have the ability to decline financing?


----------



## Blackswanwood

GrahamF":2hi8e6nk said:


> Blackswanwood":2hi8e6nk said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GrahamF":2hi8e6nk said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.
> 
> 
> 
> Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.
> 
> I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.
Click to expand...


I think you may be referring to the rich rather than just bankers. I don’t want to turn this into a debate about the relative value or ethics of the banking system but if I recall correctly the retail banking sector employs north of 200,000 people in the UK. I wouldn’t call that a minority. Most are not enjoying the lifestyle you mention and while there may be others more at risk from the economic impact of the current situation they still face the risks of unemployment due to down sizing in a post C19 environment.

I too feel for small businesses and the self employed.


----------



## SBJ

MikeG.":1bqwv2uf said:


> beech1948":1bqwv2uf said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.
Click to expand...


Hyperbole?

Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk


----------



## RogerS

GrahamF":2shgozxk said:


> Blackswanwood":2shgozxk said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GrahamF":2shgozxk said:
> 
> 
> 
> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.
> 
> 
> 
> Why does it not effect the bankers Graham?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I didn't say that. I said "the economy as it effects the most of us". Obviously the bankers (who are a minority of the population) do a necessary job but I couldn't care less if they lose their annual bonus and have to forgo the new Merc or boat. As things decline, the vultures among them stand to make even more money from interest charged to the struggling businesses and individuals in debt because of the situation.
> 
> I'm far more worried about the thousands of small and large UK businesses and the people they employ, many of whom won't survive.
Click to expand...


They are not exactly bending over to help people, that's for sure.


----------



## RogerS

GrahamF":3v0eie1w said:


> RogerS":3v0eie1w said:
> 
> 
> 
> Deaths are one aspect ...an important one, I agree.
> 
> But one needs to consider just how the economy will actually ever get started again. And how forgiving the public will be in perpetual lockdown.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak it would have been far worse without the lock down so there's nothing in reality to forgive.
> 
> Personally I view the economy as it effects most of us (not the bankers) as a far more serious problem. Many businesses have and will go bust, thousands will have lost their jobs and many will lose their houses and have cars and other possessions repossessed. It's going to take many years for people to recover financially and the mental repercussions and family breakdowns will be serious.
> 
> We need another BUY BRITISH campaign like we had a couple of decades (or was it longer) ago. Support our industry, **** the rest and get the place moving again.
Click to expand...


Perhaps forgiving was the wrong word (although a valid synonym !). Tolerant ?


----------



## Jake

GrahamF":2djxrxly said:


> Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak



Err what? We have 7k deaths (the figures are for deaths in hospital only) already, on 900 a day, and this thing hasn't nearly peaked yet. You can't compare the start of this thing to the end of a flu season.


----------



## GrahamF

Jake":3kl4pr18 said:


> GrahamF":3kl4pr18 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Although fewer people are dying than during a good/bad flue outbreak
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Err what? We have 7k deaths (the figures are for deaths in hospital only) already, on 900 a day, and this thing hasn't nearly peaked yet. You can't compare the start of this thing to the end of a flu season.
Click to expand...


W.H.O figures published 2017, worldwide 5 million cases of flue with up to 650,000 deaths p.a.


----------



## Jake

That was an upper bound estimate for worldwide deaths. It will be a stunning turn-around by the whole world if this does not exceed that by a very considerable margin. This is much more serious than any flu since 1918. But I hope you end up being right anyway.


----------



## Rorschach

Jake":37vw6arl said:


> That was an upper bound estimate for worldwide deaths. It will be a stunning turn-around by the whole world if this does not exceed that by a very considerable margin. This is much more serious than any flu since 1918. But I hope you end up being right anyway.



Excess winter deaths (flu mostly):

1999 - 48,000
2009 - 26,000
2014 - 44,000

In Jan 2015 weekly deaths were 15,000.

So at the moment these numbers are nothing unusual. We'll see how they continue.


----------



## Jake

Those numbers are not comparable. Total deaths will be much higher than the "COVID deaths" you are comparing to, which are in hospital and attributed to (and diagnosed as) COVID. 

Let's take your 2014 example. Here are PHE's own excess mortality statistics for those years (E&W only, Scotland is not included but the figures were provided in the next annual report snip below).







Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 5_2016.pdf

I am not sure where your Jan 2015 figure came from, because PHE statistics were that there were 2,291 excess deaths in total for that whole seasonal year.






Source: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 5_ver4.pdf


----------



## Rorschach

My figures came from the ONS.


----------



## Jake

Looking at the ONS reports you are comparing to total deaths, all causes, not the estimates for flu or respiratory disease.


----------



## Rorschach

It's excess winter deaths.


----------



## Jake

Yes, in the case of your 2014/2015 statistic but total EWD due to all/any causes. Quote: "Respiratory diseases also caused the largest number of excess winter deaths in 2014/15 (15,800), accounting for over a third of all EWDs."

In the case of your 17k Jan 2015, no that's wrong, that is just the peak weekly total deaths, not EWD.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

One of the reasons I think it's not easy/helpful to compare Covid with flu is that we have - and have had for some time - a programme of vaccination (I'm pretty up-to-date with my flu jabs). Some years, the forecast of which strains will be prevalent turns out to be less accurate - a bit like playing 'battleships' with a large time delay - which probably helps to explain why some flu years are better than others - I'm sure there are lots of other factors too, like weather-driven air quality/temp./etc/etc.

The best interpretation of the stats from China and Italy - for folks in "our" demographic (I'm assuming UKW peeps are older and maler than the average) - that I've seen, is that C19 is probably at least an order of magnitude more lethal than seasonal flu. 

The only real influence over that level of that lethality (whatever it really is) is ensuring access to intensive medical care - given that no-one's yet found much else that works to prevent/weaken the virus - hence the desire to 'flatten the curve' so that such facilities can keep up with demand. I only survived double pneumonia - a terrifying experience - a decade or so ago because I had access to an ICU bed, staffed by experts (that, and the IV antibiotics worked!).

Let's not forget that we also have/had flu circulating amongst us over recent weeks as normal.


----------



## GrahamF

This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first. Although I'm in the danger age group (73 and 60 year smoker) I am still far more worried about the consequential effects on society rather than the actual virus. Have lost 4 friends over the past 3 weeks but only one of them from Covid, the others from cancer, stroke and sell-by date.


----------



## RogerS

GrahamF":18327k09 said:


> This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first. Although I'm in the danger age group (73 and 60 year smoker) I am still far more worried about the consequential effects on society rather than the actual virus. Have lost 4 friends over the past 3 weeks but only one of them from Covid, the others from cancer, stroke and sell-by date.



The families of 7000+ people might have a different view. And in the space of a few weeks.


----------



## GrahamF

RogerS":3dvq1tbd said:


> The families of 7000+ people might have a different view. And in the space of a few weeks.



Understandably, many families and friends will be totally devastated and I'm not trying to ignore that pain. Many millions have been effected in other ways and for tens of thousands there will be/have been life changing consequences.


----------



## beech1948

MikeG.":2lycwsm5 said:


> beech1948":2lycwsm5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........The UK needs to man up and get out there to test 75 million people and to get it done rapidly say over 3 months. Any and all anti-testing rhetoric is simply illogical bs.........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Firstly, are we going to be testing in say France to make up the additional 7.2 million? The UK population is 67.8 million.
> 
> Secondly, there is no point in testing people to see if they've got the virus if they've already had it......and there isn't yet a test to show if you've had it but don't have it now.
> 
> Finally, everyone will completely and utterly forget about testing if a vaccine or simple drug treatment becomes available.
Click to expand...



Thanks for correction re 75m souls in the UK.

Office of National Stats says 66,435,000 as of today
Worldometers says 67,805,347 as of April 9th..today.

As to testing the 7.2 m French I do not care enough to comment other than to say they would not test the English and within that attitude is my answer.


----------



## Just4Fun

GrahamF":2seyw8v8 said:


> This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.


I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.


----------



## Keith 66

Well its getting a bit more real for us, a bloke i used to know died of it two weeks ago & a good friend from the yacht club died of it in east london a day ago. Both were about 60 years old.


----------



## heimlaga

Just4Fun":ee9ur7cw said:


> GrahamF":ee9ur7cw said:
> 
> 
> 
> This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.
> 
> 
> 
> I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.
Click to expand...


I saw that too in our local newspaper Vasabladet.
Finland has rather extensive restrictions and got then set up at an early stage. To me the reduction in influenza cases seems like a proof that our restrictions work. They say influenza spreads easier than covid 19 and if that is true the restrictions should have even greater impact in it.


----------



## Bodgers

heimlaga":sqd7cgr6 said:


> Just4Fun":sqd7cgr6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> GrahamF":sqd7cgr6 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This winter season, we may well see a drop in flue deaths as the virus got them first.
> 
> 
> 
> I am told anecdotally that over here (Finland) the number of flu cases is indeed lower than normal. One explanation put forward for this is that all the extra cleanliness, isolation etc to guard against coronavirus also reduces the spread of flu. That sounds reasonable to me.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I saw that too in our local newspaper Vasabladet.
> Finland has rather extensive restrictions and got then set up at an early stage. To me the reduction in influenza cases seems like a proof that our restrictions work. They say influenza spreads easier than covid 19 and if that is true the restrictions should have even greater impact in it.
Click to expand...

Nope - reproduction number for Coronavirus is 2-2.5. For H1N1 flu It was 1.4-1.6.

Source: WHO.

One of the reasons why we most of us are sat at home is because it is so contagious.


----------



## Andy Kev.

This is from today's _Daily Telegraph_:

_Scientists studying the town at the epicentre of Germany's first major outbreak said they had found antibodies to the virus in people who had shown no symptoms and were not previously thought to have been infected.

Initial results released on Thursday suggest as many as 15 per cent of the town may already have immunity — three times as many as previous estimates.

The findings suggest the mortality rate for the virus in Germany is just 0.37 per cent — five times lower than current estimates._

Clearly it is still early days but that sounds realistic to me and more plausible than some of the mass mortality fears. As the results of more studies come in, conclusions will be more solid and we will finally be in a position to assess the effects of this virus sensibly.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":3bnk8vtp said:


> Clearly it is still early days but that sounds realistic to me and more plausible than some of the mass mortality fears.



I sincerely hope that confirmation bias turns out well placed, as this pre-print study is potentially good news (and vastly more reassuring than experiences in Italian communities where a large % of population ended up infected).


----------



## GrahamF

On the brighter side, road, industrial and construction deaths are well down and talking to a nurse, it seems most of the run-of-the-mill emergency patients are so scared of catching something there, they're learning pull their own splinters out.


----------



## Lons

GrahamF":2joz5hdl said:


> it seems most of the run-of-the-mill emergency patients are so scared of catching something there, they're learning pull their own splinters out.


But the flip side Graham is that other surgery is well down as well, partly because patients are cancelling as they're scared of catching the virus in hospital and others like a friend who was due to have treatment for prostrate cancer. The treatment is postponed but the cancer won't know that.  My wife has an important consultation scheduled for early May and that now appears to be in doubt as well.

Talking this morning to a friend who lives on the outskirts of Newcastle and he says the difference in air quality is very noticeable. That said we back on to a main road to the Scottish Borders and there were quite a lot of cars on that road today!


----------



## MikeG.

"x percent of the population have coronavirus asymptomatically" is something we hear quite a lot. No doubt there is something in this, and we'll find out how big a deal it is once there is widespread testing of the general population (not just the hospital population). However, I wonder how many of those claims come from people who were tested just after they caught the virus but before any symptoms began to develop. Kenny Dalglish, for instance, has just been tested (he was in hospital for something else) and found to have Covid 19. The news described him as asymptomatic. Well, I was asymptomatic for 5 days, as are most people who go down with this bug. It's one of the reasons it is so hard to control the spread. It is perfectly possible that Dalglish won't develop the disease, but equally, he well might.


----------



## rafezetter

Inoffthered":9i8t81ln said:


> I'm not saying that their thinking is any different and at no point in my post did I suggest that, what I am saying is that unless there is a major change in attitude, the government's good intentions will be thwarted and the economy will be in ruins, and I mean ruins of biblical proportions.



like I said - worked for them before.

I'm reminded of a quote from the end of the film series "The Matrix" where Neo is talking to the head honcho and Neo tells them that the machines will have to pull back and reduce and the head honcho says "there are levels of survivability we are willing to accept, as long as we survive".

Banks will always survive, because they know we cannot function as a society without them, they made sure of it - biblical proportions or otherwise.

Banking and funeral parlours are about the only 2 types of business that would survive almost anything short of an apocalypse.

Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.


----------



## MikeG.

rafezetter":3enrhpga said:


> .......Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.



I'd suggest forced mutualisation. Offer them the choice of becoming mutuals, or becoming non-profit organisations with statutory salary and bonus caps. At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.


----------



## rafezetter

Andy Kev.":3e7kzzmu said:


> rafezetter":3e7kzzmu said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Selwyn":3e7kzzmu said:
> 
> 
> 
> I do mind (although the portion of people doing this would be miniscule) but I certainly wouldn't be saying they need to be killed by a stranger for doing it.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> So if you don't condone an instant bullet between the eyes (which btw I'm 100% with RogerS on that) what would YOU do with such a person who willingly infects another human being with a life threatening virus?
> 
> Arrest and jailing is not a deterrant against crime - because if it were, most countries would have low crime rates, instead of overstuffed prisons.
> 
> A fine? They've got to have the money first and I'd dare say at the risk of generalising that that kind of scum won't have any.
> 
> Turn them into a labourforce work gang? Still requires a prison and costs the taxpayer £38,000 per year EACH, or £11,000 MORE than the claimed average UK wage.
> 
> A bullet is humane for them (because frankly my chosen method of deterrant would be far worse), and cheap for us; after a few dozen of those, filmed and made public - people might actually not do it - you know like an actual WORKING DETERRANT.
> 
> This is our first major pandemic in living memory, but for our young children very probably won't be thier last, so lessons learned - or not - will shape thier future.
> 
> Personally I think one of the reasons we are in this mess is liberalism - in times of peace liberalism can have it's place, but in times of war, and make no mistake this IS a war, liberalism can, and has, killed people.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> I think the problem is that we in the western world generally have, in material terms, soft and easy lives. Our justice system has also become very soft. A couple of centuries ago you would receive the most dire punishment for e.g. theft. This was rightly recognised as being too harsh on people who often were so destitute that they had no alternative to crime.
> 
> I've thought for some time that for some crimes we need to have the option of sentences which carry a degree of brutality as these would be proportionately more effective against people used to a soft life. For offences like the one in question, which are utterly unprovoked, potentially deadly and which can only regarded as being "recreational", I would have thought that severe and extremely painful (possibly public) floggings would be the answer. The stocks could be available for lesser offences like vandalism. Such sentences would be quick, cheap to administer and, I imagine, highly effective in their deterrent influence.
> 
> I realise that such a view will provoke outrage from some but I think it worthy of serious consideration. FWIW I want to see a society where people are kind, polite and considerate of their fellows. It might seem odd to resort to such recommendations for dealing with the extreme fringes of civil behaviour.
> 
> I realise that this is somewhat off topic but corona is giving rise to a number of side issues.
Click to expand...


ok yup a flogging - I could go with that, but the person who was spat at, or a delegated family member (prefereably the largets and strongest) gets to administer it.

with a cat o'nine tails.

dipped in honey and broken glass is optional, dealers choice.

(ahahaha I've suddenly got this mental playthrough of a scene from a film where this is going on, but the person doing the flogging has bowls of gummie bears and sprinkles... possibly one of those mickey take films of rambo or topgun with Charlie Sheen... fluffy bunny feet. - wierd).

we REALLY don't want to have to do this more than a handful of times so the deterrant has to be the kind that leaves those sentenced to it screaming for mercy - otherewise it's not a deterrant.


----------



## rafezetter

MikeG.":2gpvqegl said:


> rafezetter":2gpvqegl said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......Nothing will change in their thinking without a major govt intervention and possibly forced nationalisation.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'd suggest forced mutualisation. Offer them the choice of becoming mutuals, or becoming non-profit organisations with statutory salary and bonus caps. At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.
Click to expand...


Bloody hell MikeG - forced mutilation, thats a bit strong isn't it? Even for me and I'm a fairly unforgiving guy of A-holes... wait..... mutualisation..... ahhhh


----------



## Blackswanwood

MikeG.":177rh31s said:


> At the moment they get profit without risk, knowing that the tax payer will always bail them out if they stuff up.



That's wholly inaccurate. The PRA have far more intrusive powers than were in existence at the time of the banking crisis and they use them to make sure this does not happen. Directors and Senior Executives are also personally accountable for decisions they take - something that has been introduced in recent years. I'd be the first to highlight shortcomings in the banking system but to say banking is a one way bet is a long way off the mark.


----------



## rafezetter

Rorschach":26oudw4i said:


> Hmmmm, people who called me offensive and disgusting for my views that there are some corrupt and power mad Police (admitted true byt the Police themselves last week) are the same people who seem to think capital punishment and vigilante murder are perfectly acceptable. What a topsy turvy world we live in.



nope not me - I know there are corrupt and power mad police - It's been my unfortunate pleasure met several who were more interested in "we are going to nail him to the wall" than acutal justice.

or the other one that wanted me to go for a pysche eval for having a knife found in my locker at work - wasn't interested in the fact my then GF had threatened to commit suicide with it that morning right before leaving for work - OR the fact that it was an illegal search.

nope, I'm right with you on that one, people are people and a uniform doesn't change that (or a suit).


----------



## FatmanG

Lons":zx96iner said:


> GrahamF":zx96iner said:
> 
> 
> 
> it seems most of the run-of-the-mill emergency patients are so scared of catching something there, they're learning pull their own splinters out.
> 
> 
> 
> But the flip side Graham is that other surgery is well down as well, partly because patients are cancelling as they're scared of catching the virus in hospital and others like a friend who was due to have treatment for prostrate cancer. The treatment is postponed but the cancer won't know that.  *My wife has an important consultation scheduled for early May and that now appears to be in doubt as well.
> *
> Talking this morning to a friend who lives on the outskirts of Newcastle and he says the difference in air quality is very noticeable. That said we back on to a main road to the Scottish Borders and there were quite a lot of cars on that road today!
Click to expand...

My wife had major surgery at Nuffield 3 weeks last thursday Lons and she was due to have a check up after 6 weeks they have changed it to a telephone check up and advised that all consultations will be telephone ones unless there is a problem like discharge from infections etc. It would not surprise me to see a lot of future consultations with more NHS services will be done over the phone once a diagnosis has been made or surgery been done.


----------



## Andy Kev.

rafezetter":2zseixy8 said:


> nope, I'm right with you on that one, people are people and a uniform doesn't change that (or a suit).


And the antidote to that is careful selection of recruits and training of the highest quality, so that you end up putting the right kind of people in uniforms.


----------



## rafezetter

Rorschach":2xl0xz0i said:


> Andy Kev.":2xl0xz0i said:
> 
> 
> 
> I think the problem is that we in the western world generally have, in material terms, soft and easy lives. Our justice system has also become very soft. A couple of centuries ago you would receive the most dire punishment for e.g. theft. This was rightly recognised as being too harsh on people who often were so destitute that they had no alternative to crime.
> 
> I've thought for some time that for some crimes we need to have the option of sentences which carry a degree of brutality as these would be proportionately more effective against people used to a soft life. For offences like the one in question, which are utterly unprovoked, potentially deadly and which can only regarded as being "recreational", I would have thought that severe and extremely painful (possibly public) floggings would be the answer. The stocks could be available for lesser offences like vandalism. Such sentences would be quick, cheap to administer and, I imagine, highly effective in their deterrent influence.
> 
> I realise that such a view will provoke outrage from some but I think it worthy of serious consideration. FWIW I want to see a society where people are kind, polite and considerate of their fellows. It might seem odd to resort to such recommendations for dealing with the extreme fringes of civil behaviour.
> 
> I realise that this is somewhat off topic but corona is giving rise to a number of side issues.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Ah I now realise this is the post you are referring to.
> 
> I agree that in certain areas our justice system has become too soft/ineffective. That being said crime still continues to fall and the world continues to become a safer place. I am afraid I don't agree that we need to make punishments more severe but I do think we need a bit of reform to some areas. I am glad to see you don't condone the disgusting views aired by others here such as summary justice and vigilante murder.
Click to expand...


Sorry rorschach but deliberately infecting anoher with a life threatening virus is tantamount to attempted murder.

not sure of the exact details but that guy not long back who was sentanced to jail for wilfully infecting women with aids - ..oh dear - I've just googled it - there have been dozens of cases all over the world of people wilfully transferring aids.

so yes - a bullet to the head, no maybe's - if it saves just ONE Life - or the life of a FOUR YEAR OLD CHILD, who was infected by an italian man via his mother who was still breastfeeding (yes it happens) then yes, a bullet.

(oh and the suit defending him "he's just misunderstood and misses his mommy" - yeah, really, this after infecting 54 women, 3 men via the women, and a child).

anything less and you just allow more of the same. Yet another "what about thier rights?" liberal.

contact all those infected, ask them what they would do, then get back to me - or put that question to all your friends and relatives - you might be suprised by what comes back.

aids, corona - XYZ next time - unless you put something in place that is a real actual and fearful deterrant - as harsh a penalty as MAD - "mutually assured destruction" for the world superpowers, nothing will stop it, and maybe not even then, but you'll sure as eggs reduce the number of cases.

How many lives are you willing to spend Rorschach in defence of a criminals "civil liberties?"

answer that one with a straight face, and make us beleive you're right.


----------



## Droogs

Why not put them in the stocks and then brand their backside with a little cross for each person that died on the day of the offence and then they have to walk around in arseless chaps for the rest of their lives so people know what a sprout they are


----------



## rafezetter

Andy Kev.":23wsbitu said:


> rafezetter":23wsbitu said:
> 
> 
> 
> nope, I'm right with you on that one, people are people and a uniform doesn't change that (or a suit).
> 
> 
> 
> And the antidote to that is careful selection of recruits and training of the highest quality, so that you end up putting the right kind of people in uniforms.
Click to expand...


I agree but vetting is only part of it - I met a very nice police lady during the course of an other incident with local kids a few years back and she did say that sometimes cases where the parents let the kids run wild can change how people in the force view people, they cannot help but develop a beleif to a greater or lesser degree that "people are scum".

I by no means think all police are corrupt, Erikthevikings sister (now retired) is lovely, or that they all view us civvies negatively, but the force has often been very slow to respond and deal with those in the force that have been negatively effected by incidents, that are sometimes very harrowing for them.

They also need to stop with the whole "we turn a blind eye to the corrupt within our ranks" as has been proven time and again.

The force has often been the cause of thier own bad PR and public view of them.


----------



## Andy Kev.

FatmanG":30ogw4e8 said:


> My wife had major surgery at Nuffield 3 weeks last thursday Lons and she was due to have a check up after 6 weeks they have changed it to a telephone check up and advised that all consultations will be telephone ones unless there is a problem like discharge from infections etc. It would not surprise me to see a lot of future consultations with more NHS services will be done over the phone once a diagnosis has been made or surgery been done.


I hope that two things fall out of this current crisis:

a. A review leads to a really robust and comprehensive contingency plan for the next outbreak of a (potentially much more deadly) disease. The lessons are piling up now and we just need to learn from them. IMO the plan needs to cover everything from medical logistics right through to provisions for businesses.

b. A new approach for the day to day running of medical services so as to stop time and resources being routinely squandered. People must surely be waking up to how important hygiene is and perhaps more importantly to what they can do to help in a medical crisis.

Given that this disease isn't terribly deadly (I know that is no consolation to those who have lost people dear to them and we surely don't want to attach little weight to their grief) we have actually been lucky. It has provided a wake up call about some of the side effects of globalisation and a lot of the luxury which we take for granted e.g. being able to hop on a plane to anywhere at ridiculously low cost.


----------



## FatmanG

The U.S.A has the death penalty for 1st degree murder and have had so for a long time it has been proven over many years that even though the ultimate deterrent is in use the murder rate has continued to climb. Killing is killing in my opinion and then you have examples like Ruth Ellis or Derrick Bentley the mentally challenged young lad from the North East who's crime was made into a film let him have it. I think there has to be a big change to the criminal justice system a very big change and some serious deterrents put in place but taking a life is murder and I do not believe under any circumstance we have the right to take a life. 
Fatty


----------



## Andy Kev.

rafezetter":38u7mwp7 said:


> I agree but vetting is only part of it - I met a very nice police lady during the course of an other incident with local kids a few years back and she did say that sometimes cases where the parents let the kids run wild can change how people in the force view people, they cannot help but develop a beleif to a greater or lesser degree that "people are scum".
> 
> I by no means think all police are corrupt, Erikthevikings sister (now retired) is lovely, or that they all view us civvies negatively, but the force has often been very slow to respond and deal with those in the force that have been negatively effected by incidents, that are sometimes very harrowing for them.
> 
> They also need to stop with the whole "we turn a blind eye to the corrupt within our ranks" as has been proven time and again.
> 
> The force has often been the cause of thier own bad PR and public view of them.



I'm ex-Army and in general terms have a very jaundiced view of some aspects of civil society and I'm afraid I do believe that some people are utter scum. I usually keep that to myself because there are loads of people who are perfectly decent (I hope they are in the majority) and in any event civil society is what soldiers serve.

The police have a problem (I'm assuming here an ideal police force with no corruption, no idiots etc.) in that they are a bit isolated in society. Politicians and educators seem to have given up on the idea of responsibility towards one's fellow citizens in the sense that there are virtually no penalties for being inconsiderate and irresponsible. So we expect the police to go out and deal with a society where everybody feels they have rights but no responsibilities and they are most reluctant to accept any kind of censure/restriction on their behaviour when it is necessary.

The other side of the coin is that policing needs to be sensible (hence the need for good and well trained recruits). I could well be missing something but I can't for the life of me see anything wrong with somebody lying in the sun on the grass in a park and they are about fifty feet away from the nearest person. That said, the police could have been advised on good medical grounds that such behaviour is unacceptable, in which case it is OK.


----------



## Droogs

@ FatmanG
Not even when that life is trying to take yours? So you wouldn't kill someone trying to gut you or slash your throat? Sorry I know you would fight them and even try to chew their throat out if you could unless you are a very weak person. You would be amazed at a persons will to survive and what you would do


----------



## rafezetter

Droogs":2w1f1zy6 said:


> Why not put them in the stocks and then brand their backside with a little cross for each person that died on the day of the offence and then they have to walk around in arseless chaps for the rest of their lives so people know what a sprout they are



Not such an odd thing to say - there was a program - Twilight zone where people who did something bad (but not jailable) were "sent to coventry" for a year which used to be a UK school thing where people just wouldn't talk to you and ignored your existance.

By the end of the year the bloke was half mad. When it got lifted people instantly pretended to "see" him and he was grateful and thankful. then he saw a woman "in coventry" and..... spoke to her telling her how he felt her pain and sympathised.... which was a breach of the protocol - thereby immediately being put back and ignored. Whoops!

it was an interesting lesson in human nature - and how something so simple can be so punative.

Sure I saw in a film where rapists were tattoed with an R on thier foreheads, then let society as a whole deal with them how they see fit.


----------



## Droogs

There have been many SciFi short stories of that ilk over the years from the fifities on. The one I remember as the first I read was about a chap you was sentence to 2 years for theft and as everything was done by electronic computational payment he was given an unlimited bank account to have anything he wanted and at the same time a catatonia inducing fear of computers, a very interesting read for a fourteen year old in the early 80's. Especially as it was even then an old nebula short story compendium

probably was at the back of my mind reading this thread lol


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## FatmanG

Andy-Kev
I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.


----------



## Droogs

as above and I do hope certain organisations that are now seen as essential to the nations overall wellbeing are no longer used as "footballs" by politians and are treated and funded in the way that they need to be rather than at the whim of the current in vogue political creed


----------



## FatmanG

Droogs":2cgde1n1 said:


> @ FatmanG
> Not even when that life is trying to take yours? So you wouldn't kill someone trying to gut you or slash your throat? Sorry I know you would fight them and even try to chew their throat out if you could unless you are a very weak person. You would be amazed at a persons will to survive and what you would do


Thats different Droogs and yes I would fight for my life. I meant that sentencing in court as a punishment. Fighting for your life is self defence mate and everybody has that right. Instinct, reactions, reflexes those are natural and cannot be helped and if someone was trying to kill me i would use everything in my power including picking up a weapon and using it. I cannot deny that


----------



## Andy Kev.

FatmanG":18d077wa said:


> Andy-Kev
> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.


In general terms I agree with you. This will be a rare matter where we will genuinely need political leadership. If this is properly managed there should be no problem in getting widespread public support for a change to our habits in the future. There will certainly be no room/shouldn't be any room for pathetic party politics and/or ideology.


----------



## FatmanG

yep couldnt agree more


----------



## Chris152

FatmanG":3az8qtfu said:


> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.


i share you hope, but suspect the full force of commodity/ commercial culture will swing into play the moment restrictions begin to lift and people will be out buying their much-needed MaccyDs and saving their pennies for a number plate that bears a slight resemblance to their name etc. 
Amid our local FB group thread where people were congratulating themselves on clapping for the NHS, i placed a pic and link to the One million claps appeal - raising money £5 at a time by a simple text - for the same carers being applauded (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12672 ... for-carers). Not one person commented on this, almost as if it didn't exist. Clapping and cheering is cheap - we did that and i think it's a good thing to do. but it's not enough, and i doubt people will put their money where their mouths are when things return to normal. Let's face it, we all desperately want things to go back to normal.


----------



## rafezetter

Rorschach":2nwvh6pj said:


> MikeG.":2nwvh6pj said:
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach, you need to just slow down and take a deep breath. If a mate of yours in a pub said "that fool deserves a bullet between the eyes", how would you react? Would you assume he was talking literally, and that it was only the fear of being caught that stopped him from murdering the said individual, or would you understand immediately that this was a figure of speech?
> 
> Now, if you think the former, please ring up the police and report Roger. His surname is easily available, and the post which so offended you is still available here as evidence. Go on, put your morals to the test...ring them and report this crime (as you see it).
> 
> Or you could take the rational approach of understanding that using hyperbole is standard every day stuff. You yourself will use a figure of speech, an idiom, a phrasal verb, before your mid morning tea break, I promise you. It serves your purpose, for some reason I can't fathom, to allow different standards for yourself than you do for others with regards to figures of speech, and whatever you think of Roger it doesn't reflect well on you to deliberately mis-represent the nature of someone's words.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I understand hyperbole and I agree, there are things said in conversation that people do not necessarily condone. Had Roger actually said that though, or has he confirmed that he does indeed think this suitable? And not just Roger, others here have said the same. Hyperbole when saying an off the cuff remark is one thing, taking the time to write it out and then confirm it again is another.
> I do appreciate your remarks though and trying to bring some sensibility but at the moment I believe you to be wrong and I think those people really do mean it, I hope that isn't the case.
> 
> As to my own differing standards, could you be more specific as to where you think I was being hyperbolic? I am not to proud to clarify my statements or retract them where I might have gone too far. I know I am not a perfect moral arbiter, far from it, they are only opinions after all and subject to change.
Click to expand...


He may have been agreeing or remarking on one of my posts.

however let ME make one thign absolutely clear - I would actually really and truly do it.

It's clear to me that you and many other readers have never been a victim - and I don't mean a victim of something minor I mean being subjected to the craven depravity of a familial sex offender, or the wilful beatings of a rage fueled parent, or utterly neglected and ignored by a stepmother, or the target of teachers scoring points off you to gain favor with the rest of the class, saying things that in todays world would get them arrested and charged - and many others like burglery and rape.

you can scoff and think this is hyperbole and I truly with with my entire soul wish it was - but it isn't.

I cannot get married, and cannot have children lest the brutal legacy passed from his father to mine, gets passed down again through me, I have seen glimpses of it and it fills me with a fear you cannot imagine.

I KNOW the pain, the destruction and LIFETIME consequences caused by the wilful acts of a destructive human being - and if they are infected with corona or something else and wilfully try to infect another - "destructive human being" is what they are and need to be treated like the virus they carry.

you do not know what it's like to wear my shoes, and the shoes of people who have been subjected to and died from - eithe directly or via suicide - the sick acts of other human beings.

I'm telling you this "too much information" because until you've experienced this - you cannot KNOW the cost, and any viewpoint you have on it is null. Meaningless, less than informed drivel, just as it is about all those who keep saying "we should invade XYZ and sort them out" - ask any solider who's seen real combat how he feels about other people spending the lives of his comrades so casually.

As politely as I can, you are clueless, because if you weren't you'd NEVER say such drivel - a psychologist could spend a lifetime with such people and still only have a vague understanding, because most of it cannot be conveyed in words, just emotion.

If I could plug you into my head and share it with you, you would hide in a corner, begging for me to take it away, you would be almost catatonic - and it NEVER goes away.

You want to talk about "topsy turvey" - lets talk about how parents try to instill in thier children certain behavioural characteristics - like not swearing, or stealing or any number of socially unacceptable things - how do most of them acheive this?

deterrants.

most of us then become meaningful members of society, using these baselines given to us by OUR parents to guide our lives, and further by the guidelines of the local social mores.

if parents are allowed to give WORKING DETERRANTS for thier children, and thus to enact more stringent deterrants when those do not work, why are we not allowed to enact EVEN MORE stringent when THOSE do not work?

rape still happens, sex crimes still happens, murder and a everything else still happens - why are you so willing to continue allow this?

This mindset has far more widespread consequences than just dealing with a few people spitting.

Why are you so willing to protect the lives of those who CHOOSE to perform acts that are outside acceptable society and then PAY £38,000 a year to keep them alive? Sometimes indefinitely.

Maybe society should change to a new system "sponsor a criminal" - let those who want criminals to live, PAY FOR THEM OUT OF THIER OWN POCKETS.

Lets see if we still have overstuffed prisons then, or maybe we will see the true nature of these "protect thier human rights" people - that they are happy for these people to live, JUST AS LONG AS SOMEONE ELSE PAYS FOR IT. Those with more money - after all they can spare it, right? Ask AJBTemple how he feels about being a higher rate taxpayer to pay for the criminals - He's a solicitor (or was) if I recall correctly, I'm sure he's got some interesting views on it.

We have people on in the UK alone who are almost starving and living in conditions of poverty that £38,000 a year would make thier lives and those in thier local communties a veritable paradise - yet you are so willing to rush to spend that money to protect those that would do THEM harm.

The Swiss are actually trying soemthing like this iirc. - Just without the "kill criminals" part.

I'm not saying "kill all criminals" but wilful harm against an innocent? Yeah death, every time, and there are few who've been victims of such acts that would say different.

People always have a choice, and if they CHOOSE to do that, they CHOOSE to accept whatever penalty comes after. - if you can prove they are mentally insane (and I mean properly insane not just faking it) then lock them up and chemically lobotomise them.

Edit: there are species within the animal kingdom that will deliberately kill numbers of their own to protect the larger group, even some of the more evolved animals will LEAVE BEHIND an injured or sick member of the group to protect the welfare of the rest - it's a system that has ensured the survival of thier bloodline and species for tens of millions of years.

KILL them, and use the money to save / protect / enrich the lives of the innocent.

I'm not the one with "topsy turvey" view of the world mate.

clear enough for you?

oh and before you write me off and some whacko sicko - PM eriktheviking, a person well respetced here and ask him for his personal appraisal on me.

Some things in life NEED to be eradicated from humanity - a virus is one - wilful destruction of an innocent is another.

you're not running to "protect the rights of the virus" are you rorshcach? after all - it's a biological entity too.

so YOU DO have your own levels of "what should live and what should die" - they are just different from mine.

eat meat do you?

thought so.


----------



## Lons

As I've said before I count a number of serving and retired policemen and women among our friends and there is definitely an element of corruption and cover up in the force, there always has been and probably always will, they are human after all and rub shoulders with some of the worst criminals in society who do their best to influence them. I've never been a policeman but value their opinions and it seems one of the big issues they have is when they do catch a criminal they know full well that the sentence will be minuscule compared to the offence.

I also have a number of friends and family working or retired from the prison service, my wife is a very tolerant and caring person, she has put up with me for nearly 50 years so must be, :wink: and she always said the the prisoners she encountered were sad, mad or just plain bad. Prison is not a deterrent, compared with the life some of them lead outside it's a holiday camp and it's not working. It doesn't stop them re offending and loss of liberty doesn't seem to be a problem for many. they are given a bed, food, games facilities and can lie around all day or night watching tv and playing games, it's an offender's education establishment where they share criminal information and techniques. 
So what's the answer? I have no idea but the current system is far too soft and only persistent offenders are imprisoned anyway so the same faces are seen over and over again, Perhaps a military style fixed bed time and early mornings maybe dig holes and fill them in again? 
The death penalty is too harsh and wrong however if someone abused or assaulted my 7 year old granddaughter I'd expect to change that opinion and might even carry out sentence personally (not hyperbole!).
There has to be something in between that effectively protects the victims and is punitive for offenders, no-one has worked it out yet.


----------



## FatmanG

Chris152":2fi3evgz said:


> FatmanG":2fi3evgz said:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.
> 
> 
> 
> i share you hope, but suspect the full force of commodity/ commercial culture will swing into play the moment restrictions begin to lift and people will be out buying their much-needed MaccyDs and saving their pennies for a number plate that bears a slight resemblance to their name etc.
> Amid our local FB group thread where people were congratulating themselves on clapping for the NHS, i placed a pic and link to the One million claps appeal - raising money £5 at a time by a simple text - for the same carers being applauded (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12672 ... for-carers). Not one person commented on this, almost as if it didn't exist. Clapping and cheering is cheap - we did that and i think it's a good thing to do. but it's not enough, and i doubt people will put their money where their mouths are when things return to normal. Let's face it, we all desperately want things to go back to normal.
Click to expand...

It will take time Chris to change peoples mindsets but it is time that people who think like us stood up to be counted and start and try to make a difference. Ive thought about this a bit and instead of us all myself included moaning about the state of things etc it is time we put in place some form of action whether it is FB groups/social media and try and gather some momentum. That word momentum showed in the labour party how things can be changed and although it ultimately failed it was because it wasnt right. I think we have all been guilty of thinking it is how it is and we cannot do anything about it. If we continue along that road then nothing will change. I know it isn't easy to achieve and I don't have the answers but im prepared to help as much as i can those of us that do have the tools to set up whats needed.


----------



## FatmanG

rafezetter":xihgadni said:


> Rorschach":xihgadni said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> MikeG.":xihgadni said:
> 
> 
> 
> Rorschach, you need to just slow down and take a deep breath. If a mate of yours in a pub said "that fool deserves a bullet between the eyes", how would you react? Would you assume he was talking literally, and that it was only the fear of being caught that stopped him from murdering the said individual, or would you understand immediately that this was a figure of speech?
> 
> Now, if you think the former, please ring up the police and report Roger. His surname is easily available, and the post which so offended you is still available here as evidence. Go on, put your morals to the test...ring them and report this crime (as you see it).
> 
> Or you could take the rational approach of understanding that using hyperbole is standard every day stuff. You yourself will use a figure of speech, an idiom, a phrasal verb, before your mid morning tea break, I promise you. It serves your purpose, for some reason I can't fathom, to allow different standards for yourself than you do for others with regards to figures of speech, and whatever you think of Roger it doesn't reflect well on you to deliberately mis-represent the nature of someone's words.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I understand hyperbole and I agree, there are things said in conversation that people do not necessarily condone. Had Roger actually said that though, or has he confirmed that he does indeed think this suitable? And not just Roger, others here have said the same. Hyperbole when saying an off the cuff remark is one thing, taking the time to write it out and then confirm it again is another.
> I do appreciate your remarks though and trying to bring some sensibility but at the moment I believe you to be wrong and I think those people really do mean it, I hope that isn't the case.
> 
> As to my own differing standards, could you be more specific as to where you think I was being hyperbolic? I am not to proud to clarify my statements or retract them where I might have gone too far. I know I am not a perfect moral arbiter, far from it, they are only opinions after all and subject to change.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> He may have been agreeing or remarking on one of my posts.
> 
> however let ME make one thign absolutely clear - I would actually really and truly do it.
> 
> It's clear to me that you and many other readers have never been a victim - and I don't mean a victim of something minor I mean being subjected to the craven depravity of a familial sex offender, or the wilful beatings of a rage fueled parent, or utterly neglected and ignored by a stepmother, or the target of teachers scoring points off you to gain favor with the rest of the class, saying things that in todays world would get them arrested and charged - and many others like burglery and rape.
> 
> you can scoff and think this is hyperbole and I truly with with my entire soul it was - but it isn't.
> 
> *I KNOW the pain, the destruction and LIFETIME consequences caused by the wilful acts of a destructive human being -* and if they are infected with corona or something else and wilfully try to infect another - "destructive human being" is what they are and need to be treated like the virus they carry.
> 
> *you do not know what it's like to wear my shoes*, and the shoes of people who have been subjected to and died from - eithe directly or via suicide - the sick acts of other human beings.
> 
> I'm telling you this "too much information" because until you've experienced this - you cannot KNOW the cost, and any viewpoint you have on it is null. Meaningless, less than informed drivel, just as it is about all those who keep saying "we should invade XYZ and sort them out" - ask any solider who's seem real combat how he feels about other people spending the lives of his comrades.
> 
> As politely as I can, you are clueless, because if you weren't you'd NEVER say such drivel.
> 
> You want to talk about "topsy turvey" - lets talk about how parents try to instill in thier children certain behavioural characteristics - like not swearing, or stealing or any number of socially unacceptable things - how do most of them acheive this?
> 
> deterrants.
> 
> most of us then become meaningful members of society, using these baselines given to us by OUR parents to guide our lives, and further by the guidelines of the local social mores.
> 
> if parents are allowed to give WORKING DETERRANTS for thier children, and thus to enact more stringent deterrant when those do not work, why are we not allowed to enact EVEN MORE stringent when THOSE do not work?
> 
> rape still happens, sex crimes still happens, murder and a everythign else stil happens - why are you so willing to continue allow this?
> 
> Why are you so willing to protect the lives of those who CHOOSE to perform acts that are outside acceptable society and then PAY £38,000 a year to keep them alive? Sometimes indefinitely.
> 
> we have people on earth who are starving and living in conditions of poverty that £38,000 a year would make thier lives and those in thier communties a veritable paradise - yet you are so willing to rush to protect those that would harm others.
> 
> KILL them, and use the money SAVE LIVES OF THE INNOCENT.
> 
> I'm not the one with "topsy turvey" view of the world mate.
> 
> clear enough for you?
Click to expand...

I do know what it is like Rafa and I know your pain brother. Its a daily battle but hitting out on the forum won't help. I have done a few times and it won't get you anywhere as like you say others don't understand and will only make you more angry and feel worse mate


----------



## Chris152

Given the advance warnings we had, first from China, then from Italy, this is the best we could do.





And apparently we've not yet reached the peak? 
Too little, too late in spite of repeated explicit criticisms from experts internationally about how the Uk was handling things. Ahhh, but we were being led by science unlike those foreigners. It was so bleedin obvious this was going to happen.


----------



## rafezetter

opps repeat post.


----------



## rafezetter

FatmanG":18b3g515 said:


> I do know what it is like Rafa and I know your pain brother. Its a daily battle but hitting out on the forum won't help. I have done a few times and it won't get you anywhere as like you say others don't understand and will only make you more angry and feel worse mate



Thanks appreciate it - but it's not about "hitting it out" I'm not trying to take it out on rorschach or anyone else despite how it would seem - but sometimes the only way to convey a point is to make the person stand there and see it in all it's technicolour grotesqueness.

Pictures paint a thousands words and all that - and I only wish I could paint an actual picture - or like I said plug someone into my head and FEEL.

no-one who could feel as I do, experience what I have would still think a rapist deserves to live, even in a prison. From there it's not much of a stretch to include those who are wilfully destructive to other human beings.

Yes I get that it's a slope, and from there we are on the way to "all pigs are equal, but some are more equal than others". You see I'm not blinded by my personal rage, and just lashing out like a wounded animal, unthinking, uncaring of what gets hit.

But throughout human history there have been times and occasions when one "crime" (that's what's the "lets all be friends" people consider killing a rapist is) prevents more deaths.

Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the bombing of Dresden and Berlin and all the others - were necessary to prevent even more death and bring about the end of a war and a regime that had already killed millions.

Compared to those distastful acts - which the likes of Rorshcach and co would be hard pressed to condemn, because of what they prevented - capital punishment against actual criminals convicted of serious crimes is nothing.

Which reminds me - I wonder how he and they feel about the western countries having nukes? Does he condemn that we have nukes - or does he condemn that we NEED TO HAVE THEM, because THEY HAVE THEM. - MAD - or is he secretly happy we have them for the same reasons?

How is killing rapist and murderers and those that would wilfull spread a virus any different? - MAD works in many forms. *I* understand that, but clearly they do not.

For some I feel there is little hope of making them understand, they are so wrapped up in thier cotton wool lives, keeping their heads down and pretending the world isn't the way it is - and this is exactly how it thrives, suckling on the teat of "human kindness". They are the ones feeding it, instead of eradicating it.

Edit: anyway enough of my bullcrap, I'm alive and healthy - 900? geez, this is not good.

For all of the failings I think the UK has, I am still eternally grateful I do live here and not elsewhere, it and it's social systems has saved my life more than once and I am thankful for that, despite all my griping.

It's not lost on me that some of them were brought in by liberals like rorschach.


----------



## GrahamF

Andy Kev.":rtffzj93 said:


> rafezetter":rtffzj93 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I'm ex-Army and in general terms have a very jaundiced view of some aspects of civil society and I'm afraid I do believe that some people are utter scum.
Click to expand...


I agree with that, some are born into a scum family and will produce their own scum kids. I remember an old Charles Bronson film where I think the main character's wife had been killed by muggers or rapists. He turned vigilante and went out with a gun to areas they frequented as a target for robbery. Shot anyone who tried to attack him and IIRC, police turned a blind eye. Appeals to my sense of justice but sadly, we're no longer allowed hand guns.

60 ish years ago a problem lad at our school was birched in the Isle of Man for some crime he committed on holiday and he was better behaved when he came back.

Maybe the more liberal minded should watch some of the police documentaries on various TV channels, often late evening and see what they have to put up with and all too often the comment at the end is "no further action" as the CPS didn't have time to prosecute. There's virtually no punishment, even for fighting with police.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Chris152":oppxegdp said:


> FatmanG":oppxegdp said:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.
> 
> 
> 
> i share you hope, but suspect the full force of commodity/ commercial culture will swing into play the moment restrictions begin to lift and people will be out buying their much-needed MaccyDs and saving their pennies for a number plate that bears a slight resemblance to their name etc.
> Amid our local FB group thread where people were congratulating themselves on clapping for the NHS, i placed a pic and link to the One million claps appeal - raising money £5 at a time by a simple text - for the same carers being applauded (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12672 ... for-carers). Not one person commented on this, almost as if it didn't exist. Clapping and cheering is cheap - we did that and i think it's a good thing to do. but it's not enough, and i doubt people will put their money where their mouths are when things return to normal. Let's face it, we all desperately want things to go back to normal.
Click to expand...


I don't share your view on this Chris. 

For all we hear about the odious behaviour of some my sense is that the majority have got back in touch with something society was fast losing. Whether it's a sense of community or just an appreciation of what is important I think (and hope) some of it will stick.

Without opening up a debate on NHS funding but using it as an example I also feel we will make better informed decisions - to either accept the risks/downsides or the ongoing costs pf better protection.

It is interesting that in just a few months Boris has gained a government that is directly supporting virtually every sector of society. That in itself will prompt some different thinking in the way we adjust.

FatmanG - I do hope you wife is okay and understand a bit more about why C19 is such a worry for you. 

On the topic of summary executions - I have mentioned on here before that my son is a Police Officer. His probably better informed view than most of us is that the majority of problems with coughing and spitting arise with people who have other problems such as mental health or some form of substance dependency.


----------



## MikeG.

I was truly sorry to read your post, rafezetter, in particular to have hints of the torment you have gone through and continue to endure. You are right, I personally don't have a clue how that feels, or how I would deal with it.



rafezetter":by7jhyae said:


> ......you can scoff and think this is hyperbole.........



There are rather too many "you"s in your post, inferring accusations or assumptions about an individual poster here, which may even be me. I'd be careful of personalising things in that manner, when you have as little idea of our circumstances, attitudes, and background as we do of yours.


----------



## Trevanion

rafezetter":feyp1mow said:


> But throughout human history there have been times and occasions when one "crime" (that's what's the "lets all be friends" people consider killing a rapist is) prevents more deaths.
> 
> Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the bombing of Dresden and Berlin and all the others - were necessary to prevent even more death and bring about the end of a war and a regime that had already killed millions.
> 
> Compared to those distastful acts - which the likes of Rorshcach and co would be hard pressed to condemn, because of what they prevented - capital punishment against actual criminals convicted of serious crimes is nothing.



I'm not sure you can really compare the two really, and whether the bombings were "necessary" will always be a permanent debate. I believe the Dresden bombing was a serious war crime committed by the allies, nothing of any real strategic gain was made, a cultural hub was absolutely flattened and it's citizens died either burning to death, suffocating in their basements due to the lack of oxygen because of the flames above or raped and killed by the following Russian army if anyone did survive that mess. There really wasn't anything "necessary" about it in my mind especially since the Axis were on the back foot and there was absolutely nothing gained of any real note.

Nagasaki and Hiroshima will always be debated about until the end of time, I'm not really sure what to say about it, on one hand, yes it did technically cause the Japanese to unconditionally surrender (Even though they kept quiet about the bombings and didn't even acknowledge them for several days up until surrender) because main strategic targets were completely decimated and there was absolutely no recovery. On the other hand, hundreds of thousands of non-combatants had to die because of it and the country felt the effects for many years after. Yes, in the end, it probably did end up saving more lives than were lost due to the bombings and if the situation was reversed and it was the Japanese that had the bombs I have no doubt they would've been used to great extent against China, other Asian states and perhaps even the United States at a serious push.

There were atrocities on all sides of the war, after all, all is fair in love and war.

On the topic of capital punishment, I'm not sure I agree with it. There are many people have been proven innocent of serious crimes many years after the fact, yes, the overwhelming majority of convicted criminals will be truly guilty of the crimes they're accused of and perhaps more unknown crimes but there will be the odd innocent one that ends up in a bad place for the wrong reasons, is it right and just to execute these people? I know someone who was falsely accused of rape, very long and drawn out case where this poor guy's life was turned upside down totally where nobody would go near him with a barge pole with a knife at the end of it. He told me in confidence that the only thing that was keeping him from hopping in his car with a rope around his neck tied to a lamp post was the three or so people that believed him. In the end, it developed that she had lied about it and admitted it to her friend so the case was dropped, he was a free man but with a seriously dark cloud above him, she, on the other hand, got away with barely a slap on the wrist for ruining this guy's life. He's doing alright now but there's still a bit of unfounded animosity against him from some people.

I honestly don't have a clue myself of what to think of it, I can see totally what you mean about prisoners costing so much per year (about £30,000 per head in the UK) to keep alive especially in the cases of people such as Anders Brevic or Brenton Tarrant elsewhere, they're not exactly ever going to be released so you should possibly just cut out all the bits in between and just end their existence right? I would be very interested in knowing how many truly horrific and messed-up people that have had the death penalty imposed against them in the past actually had any fear of it, depending on where you are in the world it's done so humanely there's no pain so what is there actually to be afraid of? If I _personally_ had a choice between life in prison or the death penalty I'd pick death penalty every time.


----------



## profchris

I see we have a lot of discussion about deterrent punishments.

Although those of us who don't commit crimes think that punishments must deter criminals, all the evidence from research (and there is quite a lot of it) shows that criminal sanctions don't deter people from committing crimes. This is up to and including the death penalty.

The reasons are complex, but the main one is that the criminals in question don't believe they are caught (and usually don't understand how and why they were caught either). Or they don't even believe that what they are doing is criminal, thus risking punishment. The evidence really is very strong indeed. This is one of my favourite pieces of research, in case anyone wants to check out what I say: "Does Criminal Law Deter"

So advocating birching, or death, or long prison terms, is not increasing deterrence, whatever the person doing so might think.

There are other arguments in favour of tough sentences (punishment, revenge, prevention of future crime) which can be justified. Then we can argue the morality etc of making a change. But deterrence isn't one of them.


----------



## Droogs

Holy womble juice, the US has had >2K CVid deaths in 24 hours


----------



## Chris152

Blackswanwood":1gm1huzj said:


> Chris152":1gm1huzj said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":1gm1huzj said:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.
> 
> 
> 
> i share you hope, but suspect the full force of commodity/ commercial culture will swing into play the moment restrictions begin to lift and people will be out buying their much-needed MaccyDs and saving their pennies for a number plate that bears a slight resemblance to their name etc.
> Amid our local FB group thread where people were congratulating themselves on clapping for the NHS, i placed a pic and link to the One million claps appeal - raising money £5 at a time by a simple text - for the same carers being applauded (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12672 ... for-carers). Not one person commented on this, almost as if it didn't exist. Clapping and cheering is cheap - we did that and i think it's a good thing to do. but it's not enough, and i doubt people will put their money where their mouths are when things return to normal. Let's face it, we all desperately want things to go back to normal.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I don't share your view on this Chris.
> 
> For all we hear about the odious behaviour of some my sense is that the majority have got back in touch with something society was fast losing. Whether it's a sense of community or just an appreciation of what is important I think (and hope) some of it will stick.
> Without opening up a debate on NHS funding but using it as an example I also feel we will make better informed decisions - to either accept the risks/downsides or the ongoing costs pf better protection.
> It is interesting that in just a few months Boris has gained a government that is directly supporting virtually every sector of society. That in itself will prompt some different thinking in the way we adjust.
Click to expand...

'And so the onslaught is coming. Get ready, my friends. What is about to be unleashed on American society will be the greatest campaign ever created to get you to feel normal again. It will come from brands, it will come from government, it will even come from each other, and it will come from the left and from the right. We will do anything, spend anything, believe anything, just so we can take away how horribly uncomfortable all of this feels'. If you get time, have a read of this article - It's specific to the US, but I think it's on the right track:
https://medium.com/@juliovincent/prepar ... 8ce3f0a0e0


----------



## MikeG.

Droogs":2mbunaqa said:


> Holy womble juice, the US has had >2K CVid deaths in 24 hours



They have 5 times our population so that's the equivalent of us having 400 deaths a day. At the moment, proportionately, they're doing better than us.


----------



## profchris

About half those in New York, where they don't have enough IC beds and respirators.

That hugely increases the death rate.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Chris152":1st39xhy said:


> 'And so the onslaught is coming. Get ready, my friends. What is about to be unleashed on American society will be the greatest campaign ever created to get you to feel normal again. It will come from brands, it will come from government, it will even come from each other, and it will come from the left and from the right. We will do anything, spend anything, believe anything, just so we can take away how horribly uncomfortable all of this feels'. If you get time, have a read of this article - It's specific to the US, but I think it's on the right track:
> https://medium.com/@juliovincent/prepar ... 8ce3f0a0e0



An interesting read and I broadly agree. Generally speaking:
- We are preoccupied with the basic tasks of (making a) living, and do much of this 'on autopilot' for much of the time. We are creatures of habit.
- We have short attention spans (partly due to the above).
- We have short - errr.... a yes, memories (homer) (which can be manipulated by mass media).


----------



## Droogs

PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number


----------



## RobinBHM

Droogs":3v10vjmd said:


> PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number


so they told us.......


----------



## steve1001

Does anyone know where the current UK record for the number of deaths per month (that include both normal and Covid related) may be accessed?
It would be interesting to compare the number of people that have died this year in Jan, Feb, Mar, and compare them to the totals from previous years. 
I would like to get an idea of the increase in deaths per month that are occuring (if there is any increase).

Steve


----------



## FatmanG

Blackswanwood":2g7xr0jc said:


> Chris152":2g7xr0jc said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":2g7xr0jc said:
> 
> 
> 
> I hope there is a nation wide rethink of how we live our lives, how we provide care and how we make provisions for another pandemic etc. The one thing that is clear to me though is how much we all value our NHS and it is time it is resourced properly and the people within it are treated properly. No doubt there are huge challenges to come economically, hopefully people will learn the lessons of good hygiene and will start to eat properly and exercise. I have had a good look at myself during this pandemic and made some big changes that are quite frankly well overdue and I am ashamed of myself for not making them 20 years ago.
> 
> 
> 
> i share you hope, but suspect the full force of commodity/ commercial culture will swing into play the moment restrictions begin to lift and people will be out buying their much-needed MaccyDs and saving their pennies for a number plate that bears a slight resemblance to their name etc.
> Amid our local FB group thread where people were congratulating themselves on clapping for the NHS, i placed a pic and link to the One million claps appeal - raising money £5 at a time by a simple text - for the same carers being applauded (https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12672 ... for-carers). Not one person commented on this, almost as if it didn't exist. Clapping and cheering is cheap - we did that and i think it's a good thing to do. but it's not enough, and i doubt people will put their money where their mouths are when things return to normal. Let's face it, we all desperately want things to go back to normal.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I don't share your view on this Chris.
> 
> For all we hear about the odious behaviour of some my sense is that the majority have got back in touch with something society was fast losing. Whether it's a sense of community or just an appreciation of what is important I think (and hope) some of it will stick.
> 
> Without opening up a debate on NHS funding but using it as an example I also feel we will make better informed decisions - to either accept the risks/downsides or the ongoing costs pf better protection.
> 
> It is interesting that in just a few months Boris has gained a government that is directly supporting virtually every sector of society. That in itself will prompt some different thinking in the way we adjust.
> 
> FatmanG - I do hope you wife is okay and understand a bit more about why C19 is such a worry for you.
> 
> On the topic of summary executions - I have mentioned on here before that my son is a Police Officer. His probably better informed view than most of us is that the majority of problems with coughing and spitting arise with people who have other problems such as mental health or some form of substance dependency.
Click to expand...

Great read and i expect it will happen here but we dont have to let it


----------



## Terry - Somerset

The reason why different countries have had different experiences is somewhat speculative - but:

China rapidly came to the conclusion that the virus was able to spread very fast and that there were no obvious easy treatment options. They had the data before it was communicated (somewhat belatedly) to the West, and as a police state (effectively) the ability to lockdown quickly and completely.

The US has the questionable pleasure of being lead by Trump. He was in complete denial of the risk until the end of February. At his recent press conferences it is clear that as soon as he goes off the written script , he is confused and inarticulate. I expect US deaths to increase rapidly due to poor leadership and poor social care infrastructure.

Much of Western Europe has followed the same pattern of rapid increase in cases until it became evident that health services would be utterly overwhelmed. Then lockdown - unprecedented . I can only attribute the lag in UK cases to different social structures - UK winter is wet and cold which inhibits socialising outdoors, Italy and Spain are rather different climatically and socially.

Trying to score political points and criticism with the benefit of hindsight is pointless right now - we need to focus on getting the future right. I don't doubt the sincerity of those involved in solving the problems or the efforts they are putting in. There would be no mileage in changing horses mid-stream - we can only analyse the performance and make better plans for the future when the dust has settled.

As an example - PPE is clearly an issue. I don't know by how much demand for these has increased - I would expect that a 10-20% should have been easily achievable. But if demand is up by a factor of 10 (worldwide!) it is no surprise there are shortages - manufacturing capacity limitations, raw material supplies etc . You can't (I assume) make adequate masks out of curtains if you have run out of the right filter material!


----------



## Richard_C

Reply to Steve

Www.ons.gov.uk is the repository for everything. Sometimes not user friendly. Most reports have links to the raw data, downloadable as excel or csv files. Often the downloaded file has multiple tabs. I use them a lot in my work for pay, inflation and so on.

Some tables are called time series. That's what you want if you are doing year on year comparisons. Once you have it as an excel workbook you can cut it any way you want.

Was planning to look at it myself, not got round to it yet.


----------



## Chris152

Terry - Somerset":204w8nt7 said:


> Trying to score political points and criticism with the benefit of hindsight is pointless right now - we need to focus on getting the future right. I don't doubt the sincerity of those involved in solving the problems or the efforts they are putting in. There would be no mileage in changing horses mid-stream - we can only analyse the performance and make better plans for the future when the dust has settled.
> 
> As an example - PPE is clearly an issue. I don't know by how much demand for these has increased - I would expect that a 10-20% should have been easily achievable. But if demand is up by a factor of 10 (worldwide!) it is no surprise there are shortages - manufacturing capacity limitations, raw material supplies etc . You can't (I assume) make adequate masks out of curtains if you have run out of the right filter material!


No political 'point scoring' here. Pointing out the dreadful failure of our govt to act in good time given the advance warnings and criticisms of tardiness in UK action is important for both now and the future - which continues to be a real issue as I watch painters and decorators etc still doing their 'essential' work in people's homes, fencing companies driving around three to a cab in order to put up some essential trellis and so on. 2m distancing, my bottom. The idea that we should not fault-find and criticise how things are still being run in spite of how it so frequently and obviously flies in the face of the govt's own guidance is to me ridiculous and lazy-minded. The govt needs to take further action immediately. Changing horses mid-stream? Sometimes it's a very good idea, especially when facing further disaster if we don't.

As for PPE - if the govt had taken seriously the warnings being sent months ago about this virus and made proper preparation, we'd have been much better placed now. I got of the phone an hour ago from a friend whose daughter's a medical student training to be a GP and who's been working in a hospital til three days ago, since when she's been unable to get out of bed on account of having the virus. 22 years old, 200 miles from her mum and nobody to look after her. Apparently much of the care involves helping patients to cough, to clear their lungs. When she started at the hospital a couple of weeks back, they were told there was no face protection but that they could go and buy some at Wickes. (Forgive the capitals, but) WHAT THE HELL IS THAT??? Our children/ loved ones putting their lives on the line to save others, and the govt hasn't done enough preparation / procurement to protect them while you can still go to the hardware store and buy the kit needed?! Other countries did, ours didn't. The idea we shouldn't say anything about this now? Wait til it's all over and we'll come back to it once everyone's calm?

Sorry, I'm angry. And not really sorry for expressing my anger.


----------



## steve1001

> Reply to Steve
> 
> http://Www.ons.gov.uk is the repository for everything. Sometimes not user friendly. Most reports have links to the raw data, downloadable as excel or csv files. Often the downloaded file has multiple tabs. I use them a lot in my work for pay, inflation and so on.
> 
> Some tables are called time series. That's what you want if you are doing year on year comparisons. Once you have it as an excel workbook you can cut it any way you want.
> 
> Was planning to look at it myself, not got round to it yet.



Thanks Richard

I had already had a look there and found annual figures from 2018, and going far back. I could not see 2019 or 2020 figures. I will have another hunt around on there tonight.

It's all well and good saying that 900 people have died (sad to say) today, but it would be useful to know the severity of the increase compared to previous years. 

Steve


----------



## Andy Kev.

profchris":1hg7l0at said:


> I see we have a lot of discussion about deterrent punishments.
> 
> Although those of us who don't commit crimes think that punishments must deter criminals, all the evidence from research (and there is quite a lot of it) shows that criminal sanctions don't deter people from committing crimes. This is up to and including the death penalty.
> 
> The reasons are complex, but the main one is that the criminals in question don't believe they are caught (and usually don't understand how and why they were caught either). Or they don't even believe that what they are doing is criminal, thus risking punishment. The evidence really is very strong indeed. This is one of my favourite pieces of research, in case anyone wants to check out what I say: "Does Criminal Law Deter"
> 
> So advocating birching, or death, or long prison terms, is not increasing deterrence, whatever the person doing so might think.
> 
> There are other arguments in favour of tough sentences (punishment, revenge, prevention of future crime) which can be justified. Then we can argue the morality etc of making a change. But deterrence isn't one of them.


I think that there is one flaw in your argument and that is that you can never know who was deterred from committing a crime by the prospect of the punishment which the crime attracts. Nobody is going to say, "I was seriously thinking of killing him but I decided not to because I didn't want to be hanged".

The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it". Then there is the matter of justice. I think it just to execute some criminals. Note the "some" as there is many a murderer for whom execution might be unjust.


----------



## Jake

Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.

It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.


----------



## RogerS

Jake":1l4b33x4 said:


> Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.
> 
> It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.



Not really, Jake. Just that a lot of us are fed up of "Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.


----------



## Lons

Droogs":obx47mhg said:


> PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number



Do you really believe that Droogs? I seriously doubt that too many people do believe the information from China, next you'll be telling us they didn't initially cover up the outbreak. Plenty of compelling evidence they did!


----------



## Setch

Andy Kev.":uchi53b5 said:


> The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".



Countries with the death sentence typically don't have lower crime stats.

In fact, if you compare US States with capital punishment vs those without, the Death penalty states have significantly higher rates of crime in general, and murder specifically.

I'd suggest the onus is on the Capital Punishment lobby to show it reduces crime, but they can't.

Next?


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":21i64f33 said:


> Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.
> 
> It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.


I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.


----------



## MikeG.

Andy Kev.":38u8lvkf said:


> .......The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".......



I'm afraid you just reversed the burden of proof, Andy. It isn't up to us to prove anything. It is up to the proponents of capital punishment to prove that it has a deterrent effect. Good luck with that.


----------



## Jake

Andy Kev.":3qrz1ar1 said:


> Jake":3qrz1ar1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.
> 
> It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.
> 
> 
> 
> I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.
Click to expand...


OK then, let's just say semi-amusing how wishing bad things would happen to bad people makes other people who consider themselves good people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown etc.


----------



## John Brown

I've rarely read such total [email protected]@cks.
If i could somehow catch the venom dripping from this thread, and inject it into a horse, I reckon I could produce a marketable antidote to The Express and Fox News. 
I think it was Anatole France who said "the law, in its infinite wisdom, forbids the rich, as well as the poor, from sleeping under a bridge, or stealing a loaf of bread"(forgive my paraphrase, I can't be pineappled to look it up). 
What deters you from mugging old ladies in the street? Is it the fear of a fine, or imprisonment, or the birch?
Similarly, what stops you commiting rape or sex crimes? If it's just the worry that you might be punished, then OK, I'm totally off target here.

No. I didn't think so. Deterrents only work for rational people. 
That's why you hear outrage when insurance fraudsters receive sterner punishments than muggers, but ask yourself, what is it that deters you from making fraudulent insurance claims, or cheating the tax man?
This is a scary and Cumquats time we're all going through. I'm not entirely sure how focussing on a very minority element, and whether or not we should be allowed to shoot them is the best way forwards.


----------



## sploo

RogerS":i4gvb1dm said:


> "Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.


I think you've managed to get several of the answers to this week's Daily Mail crossword with those Roger...


----------



## steve1001

Gentlemen. 

If I read the internet or watch the TV (heaven forbid) I am left with the impression that there has been a major increase in the number of deaths (constantly 800+ a day!).
I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead.

Here are a few figures from a dataset of recorded deaths in England and Wales for this year, and are provisional counts of death registrations. 
The report is interesting as it shows the weekly deaths this year, and the average deaths in the corresponding weeks for the previous 5 years.

The data are from one of the Gov websites:-
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales

Accreditation to ONS - Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence.

I consider these figures to be pretty accurate, but they are provisional (see notes on the original spreadsh

About the dataset:-
Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. 

Column 1 = Week Ending.
Column 2 = Total deaths, all ages.
Column 3 = Total deaths: average of corresponding week over the previous 5 years.
Column 4 = Difference in the weekly number of deaths - my calculation insertion.
Column 5 = Deaths due to Covid, that are also included in the previous column figures. 

03-Jan-20 12,254 12,175 +79
10-Jan-20 14,058 13,822 +236
17-Jan-20 12,990 13,216 -226
24-Jan-20 11,856 12,760 -904
31-Jan-20 11,612 12,206 -594
07-Feb-20 10,986 11,925 -939
14-Feb-20 10,944 11,627 -683
21-Feb-20 10,841 11,548 -707
28-Feb-20 10,816 11,183 -367
06-Mar-20 10,895 11,498 -603
13-Mar-20 11,019 11,205 -186 [Covid=3]
20-Mar-20 10,645 10,573 +72 [Covid=103]
27-Mar-20 11,141 10,130 +1011 [Covid=539]


Steve


----------



## Droogs

Lons":1p6chyp2 said:


> Droogs":1p6chyp2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> PRC has a population 30 times ours and didn't reach anywhere near that number
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you really believe that Droogs? I seriously doubt that too many people do believe the information from China, next you'll be telling us they didn't initially cover up the outbreak. Plenty of compelling evidence they did!
Click to expand...


At no point have I said they were not tardy at reporting it or that they didn't try to cover it up, I am inclined to believe they did from the available evidence. all in the name of face. But once it was out I believe they have been fairly open about their stats


----------



## Andy Kev.

MikeG.":3bdmccvj said:


> Andy Kev.":3bdmccvj said:
> 
> 
> 
> .......The anti-capital punishment lobby always makes the non-deterrence argument to which my reply is "prove it".......
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I'm afraid you just reversed the burden of proof, Andy. It isn't up to us to prove anything. It is up to the proponents of capital punishment to prove that it has a deterrent effect. Good luck with that.
Click to expand...

The problem is, as I pointed out earlier, that we can never know who has been deterred from crime by any kind of sentence and by definition anybody who has committed any kind of crime was not deterred at all.

This then brings us back to the idea of what we as a society consider to be the right punishment for each type of crime. Personally, I would like the death penalty to be available - while being anything but automatic - for murder and certain other crimes as I think it a good way of showing society's disapproval of the most heinous kinds of crime.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Jake":2n8r2g6r said:


> Andy Kev.":2n8r2g6r said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Jake":2n8r2g6r said:
> 
> 
> 
> Again, a wave of weirdly irrelevant venting about how some people should be whipped, shot, executed, etc.
> 
> It would be semi-amusing how vitriol makes people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown, but the dynamic is more concerning than that.
> 
> 
> 
> I can only speak for myself but as far as I'm concerned it is to do with justice. Vitriol or getting worked up doesn't come into it.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> OK then, let's just say semi-amusing how wishing bad things would happen to bad people makes other people who consider themselves good people feel more comfortable in times of stress and the unknown etc.
Click to expand...


I think that you are trying to deflect from the issue. First you introduce the hyperbolic notion of vitriol and now you claim that the case for capital punishment is simply a product of a time of stress. I imagine that most people who think it should be available do so irrespective of the circumstances of the day. Outrage flairs up when particularly offensive crimes are committed but the ideas of how to deal with them are probably constant.

The point being that for some years the "bad people" have been in a position to laugh at the justice system because at the lower levels they are unlikely to be punished at all and at the other extreme of the hardened, professional crook they know that they will have to endure no more than being deprived of their liberty.

FWIW my personal take on sentencing is as follows. At the moment we (might) sling somebody in the nick. All too often that individual resumes a life of crime when he gets out again. So, in a measurable number of cases, the punishment didn't work and it had no deterrent effect. Clearly we need to rehabilitate as well as punish.

Therefore I would have two components to every sentence: a punishment phase and a rehabilitation phase. The punishment phase should be brutal and deeply unpleasant e.g. extremely hard labour, spartan cells, lousy food etc. Once that phase has been completed and the prisoner has shown himself to be compliant and obedient, then go on to the rehabilitation phase, which essentially would consist of training and education to make the individual employable on release. This phase would look like being at college but with something like military levels of discipline as in basic training. Decent accommodation, generally good conditions, lots of classroom/workshop work etc. Any bad behaviour to result in a return to the punishment phase. Upon release they are sent to a job for which they are now qualified (clearly employers would be involved in the scheme).

Second offenders should get a longer, harder punishment phase (effectively with the idea of breaking even the hardest professional criminal) but then another chance at training and education.

Third offenders are in until they die but are offered the choice of a painless death by injection at any time they want.

Run that in tandem with the courts being allowed to award the death sentence for crimes which we think deserve it and I think we might end up with a justice system which is fit for purpose. The punishment phase in particular needs to have a frightening reputation.

And I can assure you that all the above is not the product of stress but are ideas which I have had for some years. The current system is not good enough and should IMO be done away with.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Just a suggestion.

As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?

I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.

This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.

Happy Easter.


----------



## Rorschach

Blackswanwood":8puwwfod said:


> Just a suggestion.
> 
> As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?
> 
> I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.
> 
> This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.
> 
> Happy Easter.



I agree.


----------



## MikeG.

steve1001":dv13lpi2 said:


> ........I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead..........



Sorry to have to break it to you Steve, but we're all going to die at some point.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Blackswanwood":2vnmrbr5 said:


> Just a suggestion.
> 
> As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?
> 
> I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.
> 
> This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.
> 
> Happy Easter.


It probably is slightly too much of a divergence from the topic. Mind you, I can't see any grounds for people getting hot under the collar i.e. it's not difficult to maintain a friendly atmosphere.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":3u6hm2ow said:


> steve1001":3u6hm2ow said:
> 
> 
> 
> ........I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead..........
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sorry to have to break it to you Steve, but we're all going to die at some point.
Click to expand...

I'm still scarred by the memory of my big brother and his mate telling me that we all die some day. I guess it's a realisation that scars most of us one way or another. Fortunately for me, when i ran home to mum in tears she told me that she and dad made me like Peter Pan so I wouldn't have to. I feel for the rest of you though.


----------



## FatmanG

Andy Kev.":ixeaajup said:


> Blackswanwood":ixeaajup said:
> 
> 
> 
> Just a suggestion.
> 
> As executions/floggings etc have nothing at all to do with C19 would it be a good idea that they be taken to another thread for those interested?
> 
> I for one will avoid such a thread as I wouldn’t want to offend those who support the notion that it works with my pseudo liberal, third party apologist and whatever the third one was that Roger has labelled me with.
> 
> This thread does have a tendency to go beyond debate and get quite vitriolic. I thought (as per the rules) this is supposed to be a friendly forum where members respected the views of others.
> 
> Happy Easter.
> 
> 
> 
> It probably is slightly too much of a divergence from the topic. Mind you, *I can't see any grounds for people getting hot under the collar i.e. it's not difficult to maintain a friendly atmosphere.*
Click to expand...

*
*
Being called pseudo liberals or whatever for not wanting to see people hanged is hardly friendly and when several are calling for murder then it goes far beyond friendly. For the 2nd or 3rd time in this thread i have to write the words middle classes and not having a clue. But I am a friendly guy and I would just like to see the advocation of murder when we all are at risk a topic for elsewhere/other times.
FG


----------



## Andy Kev.

FatmanG":344s7sk7 said:


> Being called pseudo liberals or whatever for not wanting to see people hanged is hardly friendly and when several are calling for murder then it goes far beyond friendly. For the 2nd or 3rd time in this thread i have to write the words middle classes and not having a clue. But I am a friendly guy and I would just like to see the advocation of murder when we all are at risk a topic for elsewhere/other times.
> FG


Terms are bandied about on all sides of most debates which reflect the individual psyches and/or emotional states of those using them. We're all better served if the former defers to rational argument and the latter is recognised as often being a poor counsellor. In addition, if we assume that the people we are discussing/arguing with are almost certainly friendly, decent people, we should be able to discuss any topic without causing or taking offence, even where the most flatly contradictory views are held.

For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper. Now were I to say that to any of those commentators, they would quite reasonably be offended as it would be unnecessarily rude. And FWIW my personal policy is that when people reach the intellectual depths of the average Guardianista, I tend not to engage with them: closed minds and all that. The same can be said of course of many a Daily Mail commentator.

In contrast, on here I assume a level of good will and honesty and I only avoid discussion when the emotional silliness starts. Therefore we _should_ be able to keep the temperature down and civility and friendliness at normal levels.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Andy Kev.":2j39xfjz said:


> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.



Until the last ten years ive been a lifelong tory voter and a close relative received an mbe for services to the conservative party and yet I frequently feel the same way you say you do when I read some of the junk in the Telegraph. The tory party has lurched to the right in recent years.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Woody2Shoes":ispqi89a said:


> Andy Kev.":ispqi89a said:
> 
> 
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Until the last ten years ive been a lifelong tory voter and a close relative received an mbe for services to the conservative party and yet I frequently feel the same way you say you do when I read some of the junk in the Telegraph. The tory party has lurched to the right in recent years.
Click to expand...

We've got to be careful about getting into politics here. There seems to be a consensus emerging to the effect that the old left/right battle lines are increasingly blurred. The movement that shows the most flexibility and is most in tune with the electorate is IMO most likely to come out on top. If you're disillusioned with the DT, try _The Spectator_. It's never less than thought provoking and it's pitched at a far more thoughtful readership.


----------



## Chris152

Andy Kev.":7nufk8ld said:


> We've got to be careful about getting into politics here.





Andy Kev.":7nufk8ld said:


> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.


 :lol:


----------



## FatmanG

Andy Kev.":pc0k8uum said:


> FatmanG":pc0k8uum said:
> 
> 
> 
> Being called pseudo liberals or whatever for not wanting to see people hanged is hardly friendly and when several are calling for murder then it goes far beyond friendly. For the 2nd or 3rd time in this thread i have to write the words middle classes and not having a clue. But I am a friendly guy and I would just like to see the advocation of murder when we all are at risk a topic for elsewhere/other times.
> FG
> 
> 
> 
> Terms are bandied about on all sides of most debates which reflect the individual psyches and/or emotional states of those using them. We're all better served if the former defers to rational argument and the latter is recognised as often being a poor counsellor. In addition, if we assume that the people we are discussing/arguing with are almost certainly friendly, decent people, we should be able to discuss any topic without causing or taking offence, even where the most flatly contradictory views are held.
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper. Now were I to say that to any of those commentators, they would quite reasonably be offended as it would be unnecessarily rude. And FWIW my personal policy is that when people reach the intellectual depths of the average Guardianista, I tend not to engage with them: closed minds and all that. The same can be said of course of many a Daily Mail commentator.
> 
> *In contrast, on here I assume a level of good will and honesty and I only avoid discussion when the emotional silliness starts. Therefore we should be able to keep the temperature down and civility and friendliness at normal levels.*
Click to expand...



Thats fair comment but in this instance we are talking about very emotive issues that have directly affected a good few of us in some way and therefore emotions will run high and maybe it's a topic best suited to another time once the curve has been flattened and we are not seeing friends and loved ones at such risk and stress levels maybe a little lower.
FG


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":16pqgboo said:


> Andy Kev.":16pqgboo said:
> 
> 
> 
> We've got to be careful about getting into politics here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":16pqgboo said:
> 
> 
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> :lol:
Click to expand...

There's no politics there. I could have just as easily written that about e.g. Daily Mail. It's the _quality_ of the commentary of which I despair, not particularly the sentiments which it represents.


----------



## Andy Kev.

FatmanG":3jas2yyw said:


> Thats fair comment but in this instance we are talking about very emotive issues that have directly affected a good few of us in some way and therefore emotions will run high and maybe it's a topic best suited to another time once the curve has been flattened and we are not seeing friends and loved ones at such risk and stress levels maybe a little lower.
> FG


Agreed and it is for those very reasons that I think it best to have a good look in the mirror of our emotions before posting in a calm and reasonable way. I'm sure we're all capable of that. You know the old idea: "Count to ten before you say anything!"


----------



## FatmanG

Andy Kev.":a6qa4qo5 said:


> FatmanG":a6qa4qo5 said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thats fair comment but in this instance we are talking about very emotive issues that have directly affected a good few of us in some way and therefore emotions will run high and maybe it's a topic best suited to another time once the curve has been flattened and we are not seeing friends and loved ones at such risk and stress levels maybe a little lower.
> FG
> 
> 
> 
> Agreed and it is for those very reasons that I think it best to have a good look in the mirror of our emotions before posting in a calm and reasonable way. I'm sure we're all capable of that. You know the old idea: "Count to ten before you say anything!"
Click to expand...


I shall try and remember that as i am sometimes guilty


----------



## Chris152

Andy Kev.":3teipzqj said:


> Chris152":3teipzqj said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":3teipzqj said:
> 
> 
> 
> We've got to be careful about getting into politics here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":3teipzqj said:
> 
> 
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> :lol:
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> There's no politics there. I could have just as easily written that about e.g. Daily Mail. It's the _quality_ of the commentary of which I despair, not particularly the sentiments which it represents.
Click to expand...

You might be able to get away with writing that you didn't _intend_ there to be any politics there, or that you were _unaware_ of the politics - which is probably more accurate. So many of your posts are saturated politically, A-K; what I find so funny is that you seem blissfully unaware of it.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Chris152":3cosxosx said:


> You might be able to get away with writing that you didn't _intend_ there to be any politics there, or that you were _unaware_ of the politics - which is probably more accurate. So many of your posts are saturated politically, A-K; what I find so funny is that you seem blissfully unaware of it.


In that case it might be helpful to decide what we mean by politics. I well remember the humanities clowns of my undergraduate days trotting out the tired old cliche that, "everything is political, maaan". A lazy notion convenient for the hard of thinking.

For most of us, most of the time, I suspect that we can agree that being political is when you are pushing a particular party political line. So for instance, although we associate the idea of wanting to reintroduce capital punishment with the right of centre, it is perfectly possible for somebody who is left of centre to share that view.

However, if OTH we want to redistribute all wealth etc. we are specifically following a left wing line just as much as we would be specifically following a right wing line if we wanted to have no constraints whatsoever on capitalism and wanted to do away with all aspects of the welfare state.

I picked on the Guardian comments column not because it is left wing but because it is a byword for a kind of silliness that often makes the transition into high comedy. There are Guardian commentators for whom I have a lot of time e.g. John Harris. I also quite like Marina Hyde although I'm convinced that where most people have blood flowing in their veins, she has a rich supply of vinegar.


----------



## Blackswanwood

Guys, what has any of this got to do with C19?


----------



## Chris152

Blackswanwood":21jibbis said:


> Guys, what has any of this got to do with C19?


Nothing - apologies.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Blackswanwood":2rgqoo3a said:


> Guys, what has any of this got to do with C19?


Yep, you're right. End of.


----------



## Inoffthered

Blackswanwood":2h1zplq3 said:


> Guys, what has any of this got to do with C19?




Well in an attempt to tie recent comments back to the covid malarky, the shortcomings of journalists and political commentators has been exposed in the daily press meetings.
The questions raised by some of the journalists reveal a huge political bias, an apparent intent to avoid the real questions that should be asked and juvenile attempts to get politicians to "give a guarantee" on a situation that is volatile and subject to change. 

With regards to the PPE question, the government should get the head of NHS procurement involved in the next press conference and let him explain to the media why the NHS is so woefully unprepared and why they did nothing to get PPE stuff in when news of the pandemic broke last year. To listen to some of the "journalists" you would be forgiven for thinking that Boris is sitting on the purchase order book and refusing to buy anything. The reality is that the NHS has a huge procurement operation that increasingly appears to be unfit for purpose....and before anyone starts bleating about austerity consider this as an example of skewed priorities. At the beginning of the Corvid 19 crisis, the NHS was advertising for "Diversity managers" on a salary range of £45k to £55K!

The media seems intent on dragging up so called experts to slag off the government. In a recent Question Time the Beeb wheeled in Professor Ashton describing him as a health expert blah blah (but failing to mention that he was labour party activist). It is worth watching his performance on QT, a more ignorant and ill mannered individual but be difficult to find...even Fiona Bruse was getting fed up with constant sniping and interruptions. The real issue however, is that having pontificated on what the government had done wrong, it subsequently transpired that the government policy had followed exactly what he he had been lecturing the government to do six weeks prior.

The media should also be asking questions regarding the circumstances, source and timing of the release of the virus and the accuracy of the reports emerging from China, the role of the WHO and whether it is a body that is fit for purpose.

Unfortunately, we have a press sector that seem intent on wanting guarantees about when the death toll will fall etc simply so that when the actual outcome is different they can use the answer as a stick to beat the politicians on the basis that their "guarantee" was too high (outrageous, you were being too pessimistic, are you going to resign) or too low (outrageous, you were being too optimistic, are you going to resign).

The levels of knowledge of some is woefully low. In a recent interview Peston was pontificating about the governments terrible record on testing (in that rather affected and louche way that Peston has developed) explaining where the government had gone wrong and what they should be doing. Unfortunately for him there was a medical expert from one of the universities also on the programme who listened politely to what he had to say before totally demolishing his argument and gently explained why Peston had confused his facts, was totally wrong and mixing tests for the existence of the virus with tests to prove that someone had had the virus. It was the most gentle and effective re-eduction of a self important media expert and it certainly put Peston back in his box. Did Peston acknowledge his error? No, he moaned on twitter that he thought the Prof was rude and aggressive , a totally false accusation.

It is a sad fact that many newspapers (and the BBC) have ceased to be reporters of news but have become political pressure groups (especially the BBC).


----------



## Andy Kev.

Inoffthered":1bujo5st said:


> The levels of knowledge of some is woefully low. In a recent interview Peston was pontificating about the governments terrible record on testing (in that rather affected and louche way that Peston has developed) explaining where the government had gone wrong and what they should be doing. Unfortunately for him there was a medical expert from one of the universities also on the programme who listened politely to what he had to say before totally demolishing his argument and gently explained why Peston had confused his facts, was totally wrong and mixing tests for the existence of the virus with tests to prove that someone had had the virus. It was the most gentle and effective re-eduction of a self important media expert and it certainly put Peston back in his box. Did Peston acknowledge his error? No, he moaned on twitter that he thought the Prof was rude and aggressive , a totally false accusation.
> 
> It is a sad fact that many newspapers (and the BBC) have ceased to be reporters of news but have become political pressure groups (especially the BBC).



Never underestimate the sense of self-importance of overpaid media commentators. Some see themselves as the high priests of the temple of public debate. 

I was once sat next to one such type in a helicopter in Bosnia and he was doing a tour of all the major HQs. He pompously informed me that he was there to decide what was really going on as he wrote "opinion-forming" books on current affairs. As the conversation went on it became clear that he wasn't even near the beginning of understanding what was going on and I could see no reason to believe that a whistle stop tour of the place was going to change that fact.


----------



## MikeG.

In my previous life I met journalists all the time, and, like woodworkers, there was a huge spectrum. From the know-nothings looking for sleaze to the intellectual, rational and honest looking to report events faithfully. The vast majority, however, clustered around the middle, with only a weak idea of what was happening, a drive to fit whatever they saw or heard into a pre-determined narrative, using interviews only as a source of out-of-context quotes, interviewing by reading through their list of pre-written questions with no reference to what was actually said to them, and above all, an ability to get their copy in seconds before the deadline.


----------



## RobinBHM

Andy Kev wrote:


> Now were I to say that to any of those commentators, they would quite reasonably be offended as it would be unnecessarily rude. And FWIW my personal policy is that when people reach the intellectual depths of the average Guardianista, I tend not to engage with them: closed minds and all that.



horses for courses, you have in the past quoted from the Telegraph, which is a propaganda machine and is known for misrepresenting facts.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Andy Kev.":15mbl1v1 said:


> Woody2Shoes":15mbl1v1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":15mbl1v1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Until the last ten years ive been a lifelong tory voter and a close relative received an mbe for services to the conservative party and yet I frequently feel the same way you say you do when I read some of the junk in the Telegraph. The tory party has lurched to the right in recent years.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> We've got to be careful about getting into politics here. There seems to be a consensus emerging to the effect that the old left/right battle lines are increasingly blurred. The movement that shows the most flexibility and is most in tune with the electorate is IMO most likely to come out on top. If you're disillusioned with the DT, try _The Spectator_. It's never less than thought provoking and it's pitched at a far more thoughtful readership.
Click to expand...

The speccy's owned by the same people as the tgraph and the writing is only a little better than the economist.


----------



## Woody2Shoes

Andy Kev.":37ncrr6q said:


> Chris152":37ncrr6q said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":37ncrr6q said:
> 
> 
> 
> We've got to be careful about getting into politics here.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Andy Kev.":37ncrr6q said:
> 
> 
> 
> For instance: when I read the Guardian's comment section, I often find myself wondering how it is that people that thick/bitter/twisted etc. are being given the credibility afforded them by being allowed to have their views put in a national newspaper.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> :lol:
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> There's no politics there. I could have just as easily written that about e.g. Daily Mail. It's the _quality_ of the commentary of which I despair, not particularly the sentiments which it represents.
Click to expand...

Perversely, the DM has surprisingly high journalistic standards - articles are nearly always the most factually rich and accurate - albeit the choice of subject and the editorial spin are often execrable.


----------



## steve1001

> steve1001 wrote:
> ........I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead..........
> 
> 
> Sorry to have to break it to you Steve, but we're all going to die at some point.
> 
> Acquire skills, not tools.



I see the numbers were lost on you. But thanks for those great words of wisdom. :roll:


----------



## Terry - Somerset

I have been hugely disappointed with the performance of the media in general over the last several weeks. 

I would like a media which asks intelligent searching questions of politicians and experts, and seeks to present them in a way which is complete, unambiguous and intelligible.

But at the daily press conferences the questions are woefully predictable and obviously unanswerable - for everyone the virus, its control and prevention is breaking new ground.

Outside the confines of the Downing Street press briefings, they would rather report on (for instance) the small proportion of the police who fail to apply guidelines with good judgement rather than the vast majority who are.

And the government spokespersons are being predictably coy and evasive in their answers as they know that in weeks to come they will be asked "but you said three weeks ago that ........" This despite their initial assurances about transparency.

A generality (there are some who don't fit this model) but it is all rather sad:

- politicians need to treat the press with the respect they often don't deserve because they can make or break political careers
- the press want to sell column inches or viewer numbers to increase income and advertising revenue
- and saddest of all most of the public don't seem to have the critical judgement to realise that by consuming the garbage they are served, they are being treated as idiots


----------



## Andy Kev.

Woody2Shoes":27gugnt8 said:


> The speccy's owned by the same people as the tgraph and the writing is only a little better than the economist.


The ownership doesn't particularly interest me. In fact it doesn't interest me at all. What does interest me is the quality of the mag which I think is very high.


----------



## MikeG.

steve1001":va5te9bk said:


> steve1001 wrote:
> ........I am trying to figure out if there is in fact a marked increase in the death rate, or is it that those people that have died (sorry to say) would have succumbed at some point, but unluckily were taken early by Covid-19 instead..........
> 
> 
> Sorry to have to break it to you Steve, but we're all going to die at some point.
> 
> Acquire skills, not tools.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> I see the numbers were lost on you. But thanks for those great words of wisdom. :roll:
Click to expand...


I see the humour was lost on you. :roll: You also seem to have mis-placed the quote tags. Tell you what, if you cut out the sarcasm and the eye rolls, maybe you'll get fewer in return.


----------



## sploo

Woody2Shoes":1csrymzq said:


> Perversely, the DM has surprisingly high journalistic standards - articles are nearly always the most factually rich and accurate - albeit the choice of subject and the editorial spin are often execrable.


 Surprisingly high journalistic standards? :shock: 

Heck, they're not even considered a reliable source for wikipedia articles: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikiped ... y_Mail_RfC


----------



## Andy Kev.

RobinBHM":3ktummwm said:


> Andy Kev wrote:
> 
> 
> 
> Now were I to say that to any of those commentators, they would quite reasonably be offended as it would be unnecessarily rude. And FWIW my personal policy is that when people reach the intellectual depths of the average Guardianista, I tend not to engage with them: closed minds and all that.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> horses for courses, you have in the past quoted from the Telegraph, which is a propaganda machine and is known for misrepresenting facts.
Click to expand...

Firstly, show me a daily paper which cannot be branded a "propaganda machine" (assuming one favours faintly ridiculous metaphors) and secondly, if a newspaper - any newspaper - runs a story based on what it alleges are the facts, those facts are checkable and so the story can be judged by the interested reader.

When I have quoted from the DT, I have made that quite clear and so one can take the quote with a pinch of salt or suspicion if one wishes but the journalism quoted stands or falls by how credible it is.

In my experience all papers frame the news in ways which favour their editorial line (as does the BBC for that matter). Some are better at separating fact from comment than others but that serves to help us judge them.

I don't mind papers doing that because nobody can force us to buy any particular paper. In publicly funded broadcasters such framing aka bias is unforgivable as all are forced to pay the licence fee.


----------



## nev

](*,) ](*,) ](*,) 

[youtube]ohDB5gbtaEQ[/youtube]


----------



## Chris152

nev":1lq07tii said:


> ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
> 
> [youtube]ohDB5gbtaEQ[/youtube]


Brilliant. I used to use that sketch when I was a humanities lecturer.


----------



## sploo

Chris152":2q8x3skd said:


> nev":2q8x3skd said:
> 
> 
> 
> ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)
> 
> [youtube]ohDB5gbtaEQ[/youtube]
> 
> 
> 
> Brilliant. I used to use that sketch when I was a humanities lecturer.
Click to expand...

No you didn't. 

Ahem.


----------



## Just4Fun

steve1001":57btsqzf said:


> The data are from one of the Gov websites:-
> https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... ndandwales
> 
> Accreditation to ONS - Source: Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence.
> 
> I consider these figures to be pretty accurate, but they are provisional


It is interesting to note that the ONS Covid death figures you quote do not match the figures published at 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/. 
Interpret that however you wish, but it is worth bearing in mind that some people we discuss this with may be working from different figures.


----------



## D_W

The dangerous journalists here are the ones who are egomaniacs, who have managed to get a large market share, and who believe that when they trim stories to match what they want them to be, they're doing a public service. 

One of our now fired TV journalists here said in an interview that "the story is not the same without him", in reference to a question about whether or not he believes that it's important that the news comes from him. It's hard to explain what he was saying, except to say it as that - he believed that he was an integral part of stories himself. Not a conduit, but a necessary element. 

It was a disturbing response from someone who was supposed to be an investigative reporter. He later (during space shuttle columbia breaking news) got pranked by howard stern show staffers and failed to notice that he was being pranked - in real time - when the caller said that giant teeth fell out of the space shuttle and landed in his back yard. 

I've since stopped watching news in general and will read it from any point of view to try to remove or even out bias from egos. My father in law is an intelligent fellow, but he still has this 1970s style loyalty to certain reporters and when some of them (brian williams come to mind) get caught in outright lies, it's huge news to him "can you believe that? It's so disappointing". How can you be surprised? Journalists are a lot like politicians - most of the worst psychopathic and hypomanic traits will push the "leaders" to the top and keep them there, completely unhindered by gigantic past blunders and misdeeds. 

There's no real reason to believe the reporting on covid is any different, and I can hardly wait to avoid the made for TV post-mortem news reports that assign blame wherever they decided they would before they started their "investigations". Few of them will discuss the possible origins of the respiratory diseases (wet markets and other third world food production) because that's now deemed politically incorrect.


----------



## Rorschach

FYI the mortality rate in New Zealand is currently around 0.3%
Just sayin......


----------



## Chris152

Rorschach":1d1jvkry said:


> FYI the mortality rate in New Zealand is currently around 0.3%
> Just sayin......


Meanwhile, in South Wales, 'Half of Royal Gwent in Newport A&E workforce have tested positive for coronavirus':
https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/ ... ytZ36L0I2M
British incompetence and arrogance comes face-to-face with reality.


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":1tedcmbn said:


> .........British incompetence and arrogance comes face-to-face with reality.



Do you have to do this stuff? Honestly. You cannot point the finger of blame at anyone for this, yet you somehow have to slip this sort of nonsense in every other post. Arrogance, too? Who on earth was arrogant? And in what way did arrogance feed directly through to Newport? Jeez, Chris, I thought more of you than this.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":3ljn97cv said:


> Chris152":3ljn97cv said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........British incompetence and arrogance comes face-to-face with reality.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you have to do this stuff? Honestly. You cannot point the finger of blame at anyone for this, yet you somehow have to slip this sort of nonsense in every other post. Arrogance, too? Who on earth was arrogant? And in what way did arrogance feed directly through to Newport? Jeez, Chris, I thought more of you than this.
Click to expand...

Don't think more of me than this, Mike. Incompetence - failure to procure essential equipment in good time in spite of forewarning, and while other governments were doing exactly that. Arrogance - failure to review quickly enough a strategy that allowed the virus to take hold in spite of clear warnings from international experts. And it continues. Still people are encouraged to go to work if they cannot work from home. Economy - which is crashing anyway - prioritised over lives. I can't abide stupidity, and when it's my government that's behaving stupidly and that stupidity is leading to mass loss of lives I'll continue to call it out on every occasion.


----------



## Sawdust Sam

It’s easy to be critical when you have no responsibility, hindsight an easy tool to apportion blame. It’s a mammoth task and those in charge are doing their best. I wonder how well the neigh sayers would perform in the same position. Anyone can be a critic.


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":1yh8me92 said:


> MikeG.":1yh8me92 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris152":1yh8me92 said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........British incompetence and arrogance comes face-to-face with reality.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Do you have to do this stuff? Honestly. You cannot point the finger of blame at anyone for this, yet you somehow have to slip this sort of nonsense in every other post. Arrogance, too? Who on earth was arrogant? And in what way did arrogance feed directly through to Newport? Jeez, Chris, I thought more of you than this.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> ........failure to procure essential equipment in good time in spite of forewarning, and while other governments were doing exactly that.
Click to expand...


The NHS procure their own stuff. This isn't a government or ministerial responsibility. The fact is, the NHS hadn't bought or stockpiled enough stuff, and it took the government effort, with the army, to sort the situation out. You haven't linked that to Newport. Have you any evidence that government decisions have directly caused staff illnesses in Newport? Can you point to any countries which haven't had front line health workers affected by this virus?



> Arrogance - failure to review quickly enough a strategy that allowed the virus to take hold in spite of clear warnings from international experts.



Can you list the countries that acted in time and so didn't have any corona virus deaths? And you haven't linked this to Newport.



> And it continues.



Well, you've nothing so far, so it isn't "continuing", so much as starting.



> Still people are encouraged to go to work if they cannot work from home.



No they're not. Are you determined to twist everything? Have you some sort of agenda? And how does this directly affect the number of NHS staff off work in Newport?



> Economy - which is crashing anyway - prioritised over lives.



The economy crashing is a deliberate government policy to try to save lives. Surely you had noticed that? Or are those goggles you wear so distorting your view of the world that you can't see anything at all?



> I can't abide stupidity



That's not obvious. Your arguments fall firmly into that category. You are arguing by assertion, rather than by providing evidence and logic.



> when it's my government that's behaving stupidly and that stupidity is leading to mass loss of lives I'll continue to call it out on every occasion.



The government are in no way acting stupidly. Just saying that they are stupid or are acting stupidly doesn't make it so. They have saved thousands of lives already, and it will be tens of thousands before this is over. For goodness sake, how about a little more credit and a lot less whining.


----------



## Chris152

Sawdust Sam":2d39f4h1 said:


> It’s easy to be critical when you have no responsibility, hindsight an easy tool to apportion blame. It’s a mammoth task and those in charge are doing their best. I wonder how well the neigh sayers would perform in the same position. Anyone can be a critic.


Threads have been running on the virus the past couple of months. Take a read and you'll see it's not hindsight, there was plenty of advance warning from experts that members have based their thoughts on throughout. As for those in charge 'doing their best', well, that's the kind of thing we praise our children for. Fortunately, most of them aren't running the country. UK now set to be the worst hit country in Europe. Still, our leaders did their best so whats to question?


----------



## Sawdust Sam

The question is could you do better or are you just a keyboard warrior. I guess most choose the expert view that meets their agenda and prejudice give experts have differing views. Was it a bat, the wet market, a lab mistake, the US, China. Cherry picking springs to mind. I heard last week from govt 742 million items of PPE had been distributed to the frontline, Herculean effort I’d suggest, no doubt all you have is but it’s not enough. I’m more than happy with how things have been handled to date. I’ve read the whole thread thanks and there’s lots of differences of opinion from members here, are they all based on the same experts advice or are the only valid interpretations those that are aligned with your opinion ?


----------



## Blackswanwood

Chris152":f7oa72ho said:


> UK now set to be the worst hit country in Europe.



Chris, what is it that makes you feel this is the case? I am asking as I feel no one knows or will do for some time so am I missing something? 

To take a different tack one thing I find particularly perplexing is what those people who are being turned back from trying to visit the Lake District or travelling 200 miles for a fishing trip don’t understand about the instruction to stay at home.


----------



## Chris152

........failure to procure essential equipment in good time in spite of forewarning, and while other governments were doing exactly that.


The NHS procure their own stuff. This isn't a government or ministerial responsibility. The fact is, the NHS hadn't bought or stockpiled enough stuff, and it took the government effort, with the army, to sort the situation out. 
_It's not sorted out - haven't you been watching the news?_

You haven't linked that to Newport. Have you any evidence that government decisions have directly caused staff illnesses in Newport? 
_No, I'll have to go and do some primary research to make that proof. However, in the meantime, since it's just one part of a larger picture in the Uk I'd say it's highly likely the situation in Newport is part of the same larger problem._ 

Can you point to any countries which haven't had front line health workers affected by this virus?
_No, it's a question of degree._

Arrogance - failure to review quickly enough a strategy that allowed the virus to take hold in spite of clear warnings from international experts.


Can you list the countries that acted in time and so didn't have any corona virus deaths? 
_Again, it's a question of degree. Surely you know that and are just trying to win a lazy point?_ 

And you haven't linked this to Newport.
_Maybe you could advise how I might link countries that acted in time and have had no deaths from the virus to Newport. I'm at a loss as to why I'd try._

And it continues.


Well, you've nothing so far, so it isn't "continuing", so much as starting.
_I guess you've missed the point of 'it continues'. I was indicating that the lack of action to adequately stop the spread of the virus continues._

Still people are encouraged to go to work if they cannot work from home.


No they're not. Are you determined to twist everything? Have you some sort of agenda? 
_Yes they are - it's here https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... nd-cant-do and govt's been actively encouraging it.
_
And how does this directly affect the number of NHS staff off work in Newport?
_Well, it's maybe a bit complex Mike, but the more people leaving home to go to work, the more chance of the virus spreading, according to the govt's own logic. Especially when so many workers are clearly unable to keep safe distances etc (plenty of media coverage on that). But you're right, again I've failed to conduct research that demonstrates beyond doubt that NHS staff in Newport are directly affected by that._ 

Economy - which is crashing anyway - prioritised over lives.


The economy crashing is a deliberate choice to try to save lives. Surely you had noticed that? Or are those goggles you wear so distorting your view of the world that you can't see anything at all?
_Not sure about the goggles you allude to, but my point was that since the economy's crashing anyway, why not tighten further the lock down to further limit spread of the virus as has happened in some other European countries. _

I can't abide stupidity


That's not obvious. Your arguments fall firmly into that category. You are arguing by assertion, rather than by providing evidence and logic.
_Well, I'll go and gather evidence to prove unequivocal causality or I'll remain quiet in future. Anything else would just be stupid on an internet forum._

when it's my government that's behaving stupidly and that stupidity is leading to mass loss of lives I'll continue to call it out on every occasion.


The government are in no way acting stupidly. 
_Where's your evidence for that, Mike?_
Just saying that they are stupid or are acting stupidly doesn't make it so. 
_No, we need to look at the consequences of their actions._
They have saved thousands of lives already, and it will be tens of thousands before this is over. 
_Soon to become the worst loss of life in Europe, apparently_.
For goodness sake, how about a little more credit and a lot less whining.
_Not whining, I'm criticising. It's what critical thinking does, and it's the basis of all knowledge and understanding. The 'science' you and others think you champion in previous posts depends on it. _


----------



## Chris152

Blackswanwood":2lt6pv9n said:


> Chris152":2lt6pv9n said:
> 
> 
> 
> UK now set to be the worst hit country in Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris, what is it that makes you feel this is the case? I am asking as I feel no one knows or will do for some time so am I missing something?
Click to expand...

It was in this evening's news on Ch4 and BBC, and those graphs they put up sometimes seem to support it.


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":2qf0n6w7 said:


> ............. I'm criticising. It's what critical thinking does,......



There are two elements to critical thinking. You are showing enormous amounts of one of those elements.

Let's see if we can agree on something. In the context of this discussion, let's see if we can agree on a workable definition of stupid. For me, in this context, I would go with "not following the scientific advice". How would that definition work for you?


----------



## MikeG.

Chris152":1laxetay said:


> ..............._Yes they are - it's here https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... nd-cant-do and govt's been actively encouraging it......._


_

Did you not notice the words in bold at the top...."Stay at home"? You really have got to stop seeing what you want to see, and asserting it as fact. Quote the precise lines where the government "actively encourages" (your words) people to go to work. And when you can't, perhaps you'll acknowledge that you were wrong._


----------



## Chris152

Sawdust Sam":343gckwj said:


> The question is could you do better or are you just a keyboard warrior. I guess most choose the expert view that meets their agenda and prejudice give experts have differing views. Was it a bat, the wet market, a lab mistake, the US, China. Cherry picking springs to mind. I heard last week from govt 742 million items of PPE had been distributed to the frontline, Herculean effort I’d suggest, no doubt all you have is but it’s not enough. I’m more than happy with how things have been handled to date. I’ve read the whole thread thanks and there’s lots of differences of opinion from members here, are they all based on the same experts advice or are the only valid interpretations those that are aligned with your opinion ?


Glad you're happy Sam. Definitely just a keyboard warrior, writing to keyboard warriors. 
Must say tho, you and other critics of what I've written are winning me over. It's really starting to look to me like the UK's done and continues to do a really good job of mitigating the effects of the virus and minimising deaths, and I think we really should be celebrating those at the top who's excellent work has made this possible.


----------



## Chris152

MikeG.":1ghze0hm said:


> Chris152":1ghze0hm said:
> 
> 
> 
> ..............._Yes they are - it's here https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... nd-cant-do and govt's been actively encouraging it......._
> 
> 
> 
> _
> 
> Did you not notice the words in bold at the top...."Stay at home"? You really have got to stop seeing what you want to see, and asserting it as fact. Quote the precise lines where the government "actively encourages" (your words) people to go to work. And when you can't, perhaps you'll acknowledge that you were wrong._
Click to expand...

_
No, sorry Mike - you're completely wrong and being slack in your argument. "Stay at home" negates all that follows? Don't be silly. Hancock has explicitly stated that it's important that people continue to work, and that includes going to work if you can't work at home. Seriously, do a bit of research of your own and stop just trying to appear to win an argument._


----------



## Blackswanwood

Chris152":1cukqyny said:


> Blackswanwood":1cukqyny said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris152":1cukqyny said:
> 
> 
> 
> UK now set to be the worst hit country in Europe.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Chris, what is it that makes you feel this is the case? I am asking as I feel no one knows or will do for some time so am I missing something?
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> It was in this evening's news on Ch4 and BBC, and those graphs they put up sometimes seem to support it.
Click to expand...


Thanks. I’m still in the camp of we just don’t know. My take is that comparing the number of deaths per country is going to give nothing more than a broad indication.


----------



## Andy Kev.

Blackswanwood":odw8jeok said:


> Chris152":odw8jeok said:
> 
> 
> 
> Thanks. I’m still in the camp of we just don’t know. My take is that comparing the number of deaths per country is going to give nothing more than a broad indication.
Click to expand...

I think that being in that camp is the only sensible thing to do for anyone considering this crisis rationally.

For instance, comparing deaths per head in different countries is guaranteed to be misleading. You only have to consider Italy: it's traditional there for three generations of a family to live in one house, so the rate of exposure of the elderly to the virus is almost certain to be higher there than in e.g. the UK. It would also be worth knowing how many smokers there are in different countries. A country where masses of people smoke is likely to have a higher death rate than one in which people are a bit more health conscious.

I've seen nothing to indicate this yet but I wouldn't be surprised if cultural factors e.g. Italian familial arrangements, play a significant role. I reckon that maybe by autumn, as the various countries report on the studies they will inevitably make, we might be able to assess this crisis.


----------



## RogerS

sploo":1526y2gu said:


> RogerS":1526y2gu said:
> 
> 
> 
> "Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.
> 
> 
> 
> I think you've managed to get several of the answers to this week's Daily Mail crossword with those Roger...
Click to expand...


I never had you down as a Daily Mail reader, Sploo ! :wink: Glad I could help.


----------



## sploo

RogerS":tmsbveqr said:


> sploo":tmsbveqr said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> RogerS":tmsbveqr said:
> 
> 
> 
> "Virtue-signalling, third-party apologising, pseudo-liberals'.
> 
> 
> 
> I think you've managed to get several of the answers to this week's Daily Mail crossword with those Roger...
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> I never had you down as a Daily Mail reader, Sploo ! :wink: Glad I could help.
Click to expand...

touché :wink:


----------



## Sawdust Sam

Chris152":2aehuwr1 said:


> Sawdust Sam":2aehuwr1 said:
> 
> 
> 
> The question is could you do better or are you just a keyboard warrior. I guess most choose the expert view that meets their agenda and prejudice give experts have differing views. Was it a bat, the wet market, a lab mistake, the US, China. Cherry picking springs to mind. I heard last week from govt 742 million items of PPE had been distributed to the frontline, Herculean effort I’d suggest, no doubt all you have is but it’s not enough. I’m more than happy with how things have been handled to date. I’ve read the whole thread thanks and there’s lots of differences of opinion from members here, are they all based on the same experts advice or are the only valid interpretations those that are aligned with your opinion ?
> 
> 
> 
> Glad you're happy Sam. Definitely just a keyboard warrior, writing to keyboard warriors.
> Must say tho, you and other critics of what I've written are winning me over. It's really starting to look to me like the UK's done and continues to do a really good job of mitigating the effects of the virus and minimising deaths, and I think we really should be celebrating those at the top who's excellent work has made this possible.
Click to expand...


Great to see you admit to being wrong, doesn’t happen too often. Well done.


----------



## Droogs

Sad to see that Tim Brooke-Taylor died of Covid19 yesterday, I hope he really is doing the Funky Gibbon up there. I also saw the Sir Stirling Moss died yesterday as well, don't know if it was related to the dreaded though. Still at least Tim was given a hell of a bus driver for the journey


----------



## Chris152

Sawdust Sam":2q51e0k2 said:


> Chris152":2q51e0k2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Sawdust Sam":2q51e0k2 said:
> 
> 
> 
> The question is could you do better or are you just a keyboard warrior. I guess most choose the expert view that meets their agenda and prejudice give experts have differing views. Was it a bat, the wet market, a lab mistake, the US, China. Cherry picking springs to mind. I heard last week from govt 742 million items of PPE had been distributed to the frontline, Herculean effort I’d suggest, no doubt all you have is but it’s not enough. I’m more than happy with how things have been handled to date. I’ve read the whole thread thanks and there’s lots of differences of opinion from members here, are they all based on the same experts advice or are the only valid interpretations those that are aligned with your opinion ?
> 
> 
> 
> Glad you're happy Sam. Definitely just a keyboard warrior, writing to keyboard warriors.
> Must say tho, you and other critics of what I've written are winning me over. It's really starting to look to me like the UK's done and continues to do a really good job of mitigating the effects of the virus and minimising deaths, and I think we really should be celebrating those at the top who's excellent work has made this possible.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Great to see you admit to being wrong, doesn’t happen too often. Well done.
Click to expand...



His voice isn't really to my taste, but I enjoyed watching this, this Easter Monday:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qY5yZgl ... p4hlmsG5Ec


----------



## Rorschach

Droogs":1gmoe550 said:


> Sad to see that Tim Brooke-Taylor died of Covid19 yesterday, I hope he really is doing the Funky Gibbon up there. I also saw the Sir Stirling Moss died yesterday as well, don't know if it was related to the dreaded though. Still at least Tim was given a hell of a bus driver for the journey



Stirling Moss had been ill for a very long time.

Just to be pedantic (but even the media will back me up here for change) TB-T died *with* coronavirus. That is going to be a very important distinction to make in the coming months and years.


----------



## Lons

Droogs":7k3dl9wn said:


> Sad to see that Tim Brooke-Taylor died of Covid19 yesterday, I hope he really is doing the Funky Gibbon up there. I also saw the Sir Stirling Moss died yesterday as well, don't know if it was related to the dreaded though. Still at least Tim was given a hell of a bus driver for the journey


 =D> Yes a sad loss, apparently he was still touring and seemed fit so I don't know if there were underlying issues.


Rorschach":7k3dl9wn said:


> Stirling Moss had been ill for a very long time.
> 
> Just to be pedantic (but even the media will back me up here for change) TB-T died *with* coronavirus. That is going to be a very important distinction to make in the coming months and years.


Agreed on both counts however without checking back I'm sure BBC breakfast presenter this morning said "of" the virus.


----------



## Rorschach

Lons":2ey0u7ep said:


> Agreed on both counts however without checking back I'm sure BBC breakfast presenter this morning said "of" the virus.



Could well have done, very easy to get a slip of the tongue. I tend to go with written articles where (hopefully) they are being more careful with their wording.

Same for the reports on Eddie Large, various bits of news on the grapevine said he died *of* coronavirus, official articles stated it was *with* and then his family came out with a statement saying he had been ill for a while, they knew his days were numbered and CV was just the last bit that pushed him over. 
As you say TB-T was still working, but he was 79 and he might have had health problems that were kept private. Very sad all the same.


----------



## FatmanG

I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines. What gets me is that screaming and bleeting about incompetence when it was clear what was happening in Italy etc, if it was so clear why didnt they scream nd shout then or then the population self isolated, why didnt they take responsibility for themselves? and don't blame they were forced to go out to work etc. If something that could kill me as easy as I could fart was so clear then no matter what i wouldnt be going out. Im fed up of seeing the GOVT blamed by people who sit on their buttocks and do nothing to help situation.
*STFU*


----------



## Droogs

In my night musings of listlessness on Saturday, I came across a live feed from Vancouver of Anti-vaccers etc protesting in the streets about being subjected to martial law and how the whole thing was lies and the people dying were dying of normal stuff and just being used by the gov to have a NWO coup. what a bunch of wazzicks


----------



## sploo

FatmanG":d1eht20h said:


> I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines. What gets me is that screaming and bleeting about incompetence when it was clear what was happening in Italy etc, if it was so clear why didnt they scream nd shout then or then the population self isolated, why didnt they take responsibility for themselves? and don't blame they were forced to go out to work etc. If something that could kill me as easy as I could fart was so clear then no matter what i wouldnt be going out. Im fed up of seeing the GOVT blamed by people who sit on their buttocks and do nothing to help situation.
> *STFU*


Given the data available (especially from Italy) I believe one of the criticisms comes from the government pursuing a flawed herd immunity strategy, when they arguably could/should have gone for the lockdown immediately. I don't know from where the herd immunity policy came, or exactly what caused the change in direction.

Point being: there was enough info available from countries that were a few weeks ahead of us to warn of what would happen, so learning from that would have been a good idea.

The second issue is the lack of PPE to protect frontline NHS staff. Exactly where the "blame" lies there; I guess we'll see in time. Or rather, I guess we'll see a whitewashing of the failure, published on page 27 of the papers in some months; because there'll be some new story on the front pages to keep the public entertained.


----------



## sploo

Droogs":2bqreui8 said:


> In my night musings of listlessness on Saturday, I came across a live feed from Vancouver of Anti-vaccers etc protesting in the streets about being subjected to martial law and how the whole thing was lies and the people dying were dying of normal stuff and just being used by the gov to have a NWO coup. what a bunch of wazzicks


This is a great opportunity for a sweepstake for what the antivaxxers will claim a forthcoming Coronavirus vaccine will give you. My money is on a strong cause of growing a 5G mast out of your butt.







(yea, I know that's not a 5G mast)


----------



## FatmanG

sploo":3da7c6dl said:


> FatmanG":3da7c6dl said:
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines. What gets me is that screaming and bleeting about incompetence when it was clear what was happening in Italy etc, if it was so clear why didnt they scream nd shout then or then the population self isolated, why didnt they take responsibility for themselves? and don't blame they were forced to go out to work etc. If something that could kill me as easy as I could fart was so clear then no matter what i wouldnt be going out. Im fed up of seeing the GOVT blamed by people who sit on their buttocks and do nothing to help situation.
> *STFU*
> 
> 
> 
> Given the data available (especially from Italy) I believe one of the criticisms comes from the government pursuing a flawed herd immunity strategy, when they arguably could/should have gone for the lockdown immediately. I don't know from where the herd immunity policy came, or exactly what caused the change in direction.
> 
> Point being: there was enough info available from countries that were a few weeks ahead of us to warn of what would happen, so learning from that would have been a good idea.
> 
> The second issue is the lack of PPE to protect frontline NHS staff. Exactly where the "blame" lies there; I guess we'll see in time. Or rather, I guess we'll see a whitewashing of the failure, published on page 27 of the papers in some months; because there'll be some new story on the front pages to keep the public entertained.
Click to expand...


You maybe right theres been 114 or so pages of the same argument being served up time and again. Ive heard it im immune to it  
This is not a govt bashing thread how about some posts about what they are doing to help? how they are making and taking food into the their local hospital etc if i wanted to read/hear pointless drivel over and over again id watch sky news 24hrs a day this is not the platform its been said by the mods several times now its supposed to be a corona virus thread not a govt political one.


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## Blackswanwood

I felt Bill Gates spoke sense yesterday on the point that there needs to be a global strategy worked out now for how once a vaccine is identified it can be manufactured and distributed efficiently.

It is also in my view to the credit of the UK that we are one of the biggest donors to international aid efforts to support poor countries that are being hit by C19. It would be easy to say we cannot afford it but if we leave places for the virus to prosper it will keep crossing borders and coming back. Hopefully others will step up to the plate.


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## Rorschach

A vaccine is going to be a waste of time and money I feel. By the time one is ready (a year minimum) this virus will have already spread across the world.


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## Droogs

Generally you do not remain immune to coronavirus it usually only lasts a couple of years and then you can get it again. So why take the chance of all this (veggie of choice) hassle again


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## Chris152

FatmanG":2zaq6p3n said:


> I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines.


I think it'd be hard to establish with any certainty, Fatman - maybe you could start a research group to look into it? Not sure where you'd get the funding from tho, tbh. Didn't really follow the rest of the post about screaming and bleeting and farting.



FatmanG":2zaq6p3n said:


> This is not a govt bashing thread how about some posts about what they are doing to help? how they are making and taking food into the their local hospital etc if i wanted to read/hear pointless drivel over and over again id watch sky news 24hrs a day this is not the platform its been said by the mods several times now its supposed to be a corona virus thread not a govt political one.


Now I'm confused again. You say it's not supposed to be a 'govt political' thread, so nobody's allowed to criticise the government, but you do want people to post about the good work the govt is doing? 



FatmanG":2zaq6p3n said:


> *STFU*


nope


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## sploo

Rorschach":wpp63g3k said:


> A vaccine is going to be a waste of time and money I feel. By the time one is ready (a year minimum) this virus will have already spread across the world.


So has the flu.

Viruses mutate, and as Droogs has noted; immunity through previous infection doesn't last forever.


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## Rorschach

Droogs":h59fp7s2 said:


> Generally you do not remain immune to coronavirus it usually only lasts a couple of years and then you can get it again. So why take the chance of all this (veggie of choice) hassle again



If that's true then I would agree. However I heard some virologists says that the next time we get hit by it say next winter, it might be the same or it could very well be a slight mutation, in which case the vaccine is no use anyway.


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## sploo

Chris152":14ybi2j8 said:


> FatmanG":14ybi2j8 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines.
> 
> 
> 
> I think it'd be hard to establish with any certainty, Fatman - maybe you could start a research group to look into it? Not sure where you'd get the funding from tho, tbh. Didn't really follow the rest of the post about screaming and bleeting and farting.
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":14ybi2j8 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is not a govt bashing thread how about some posts about what they are doing to help? how they are making and taking food into the their local hospital etc if i wanted to read/hear pointless drivel over and over again id watch sky news 24hrs a day this is not the platform its been said by the mods several times now its supposed to be a corona virus thread not a govt political one.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Now I'm confused again. You say it's not supposed to be a 'govt political' thread, so nobody's allowed to criticise the government, but you do want people to post about the good work the govt is doing?
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":14ybi2j8 said:
> 
> 
> 
> *STFU*
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> nope
Click to expand...

Let's play nicely Chris. Privately I'm seething at the ineptitude that's endangered so many people (my wife is an NHS doctor, so very much in the firing line), but I don't think FatmanG is the enemy here.


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## MikeG.

Chris152":2kqf0irc said:


> FatmanG":2kqf0irc said:
> 
> 
> 
> *STFU*
> 
> 
> 
> nope
Click to expand...


Well engage your brain first, at least.


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## Chris152

MikeG.":3bl8krkx said:


> Chris152":3bl8krkx said:
> 
> 
> 
> .....*STFU*
> 
> 
> 
> nope
Click to expand...


Well engage your brain first, at least.[/quote]
?


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## Droogs

Norm Chomsky gave a good intrview yesterday about all htis

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRvqkUoiKJo


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## sploo

Rorschach":c0y8foru said:


> Droogs":c0y8foru said:
> 
> 
> 
> Generally you do not remain immune to coronavirus it usually only lasts a couple of years and then you can get it again. So why take the chance of all this (veggie of choice) hassle again
> 
> 
> 
> 
> If that's true then I would agree. However I heard some virologists says that the next time we get hit by it say next winter, it might be the same or it could very well be a slight mutation, in which case the vaccine is no use anyway.
Click to expand...

I understand that a vaccine for a particular virus can have some degree of effectiveness against a virus that has mutated somewhat. Part of the "game" played by virologists is trying to work out which strain of flu virus is going to be the big one each year, and making sure there's enough suitable vaccine. Once you gave a vaccine for a virus type then mutations are going to be easier to handle. Coronavirus is SARS not influenza I believe; hence the difficulty of creating a new vaccine.


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## Chris152

sploo":3f0pboi4 said:


> Chris152":3f0pboi4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":3f0pboi4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> I wonder how many of the people shouting and screaming blaming the govt for everything are the same people who ignored the advice then the rules then ending up with fines.
> 
> 
> 
> I think it'd be hard to establish with any certainty, Fatman - maybe you could start a research group to look into it? Not sure where you'd get the funding from tho, tbh. Didn't really follow the rest of the post about screaming and bleeting and farting.
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":3f0pboi4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> This is not a govt bashing thread how about some posts about what they are doing to help? how they are making and taking food into the their local hospital etc if i wanted to read/hear pointless drivel over and over again id watch sky news 24hrs a day this is not the platform its been said by the mods several times now its supposed to be a corona virus thread not a govt political one.
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Now I'm confused again. You say it's not supposed to be a 'govt political' thread, so nobody's allowed to criticise the government, but you do want people to post about the good work the govt is doing?
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":3f0pboi4 said:
> 
> 
> 
> *STFU*
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> nope
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> Let's play nicely Chris. Privately I'm seething at the ineptitude that's endangered so many people (my wife is an NHS doctor, so very much in the firing line), but I don't think FatmanG is the enemy here.
Click to expand...

Re-read his post beginning 'I wonder...' and tell me he's giving a fair account of criticism of the govt. I'm sorry but I read it as aggressive nonsense with a completely unacceptable STFU at the end.


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## Chris152

MikeG.":1d614rzx said:


> Chris152":1d614rzx said:
> 
> 
> 
> 
> 
> FatmanG":1d614rzx said:
> 
> 
> 
> *STFU*
> 
> 
> 
> nope
> 
> Click to expand...
> 
> 
> Well engage your brain first, at least.
Click to expand...

Ah, I see now - it was an arbitrary insult.


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## Droogs

For those interested in whats happening with Covid19 here is the link to where the WHO give their live updates on Youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-X6PltONt8


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## MikeG.

Chris152":2yd0v4z1 said:


> .........Ah, I see now - it was an arbitrary insult.



Not at all. I assessed the evidence and posted a helpful suggestion. "It's all the gubmints fault" isn't a great way of arguing, particularly when you assign blame for stuff that is the NHS' perogative and nothing to do with the government (PPE purchasing, for instance). You blindly call the government "stupid", but won't even enter a discussion about the definition of "stupid". You accuse the government of directly causing the absence from work of specific people in Newport, but won't back this with any evidence or logic. _In toto_, you claim the high ground of "critical thinking" when you only criticise, and don't show any evidence of thinking. I'm not suggesting you STFU for one second, but, as I helpfully suggested, you would help your cause if you were to engage your brain prior to thumping your keyboard.


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## Chris152

MikeG.":2tzyzc1f said:


> Chris152":2tzyzc1f said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........Ah, I see now - it was an arbitrary insult.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not at all. I assessed the evidence and posted a helpful suggestion. "It's all the gubmints fault" isn't a great way of arguing, particularly when you assign blame for stuff that is the NHS' perogative and nothing to do with the government (PPE purchasing, for instance). You blindly call the government "stupid", but won't even enter a discussion about the definition of "stupid". You accuse the government of directly causing the absence from work of specific people in Newport, but won't back this with any evidence or logic. _In toto_, you claim the high ground of "critical thinking" when you only criticise, and don't show any evidence of thinking. I'm not suggesting you STFU for one second, but, as I helpfully suggested, you would help your cause if you were to engage your brain prior to thumping your keyboard.
Click to expand...

ok mike, you're the alpha male. you win absolutely, your internet persona firmly in tact. god knows what it's shoring up, but good luck with it.


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## Droogs

Come on guys, play nice


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## Jake

MikeG.":2rlbr1vl said:


> Chris152":2rlbr1vl said:
> 
> 
> 
> .........Ah, I see now - it was an arbitrary insult.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Not at all. I assessed the evidence and posted a helpful suggestion. "It's all the gubmints fault" isn't a great way of arguing, particularly when you assign blame for stuff that is the NHS' perogative and nothing to do with the government (PPE purchasing, for instance).
Click to expand...


This is really fatuous. The NHS is run by the Department of Health and Social Care. It is a unit of the executive, ie the government. With Hancock as its politically accountable leader.


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## nev

Thread is now locked.


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