# Tier 4



## bp122 (19 Dec 2020)

I know this is a highly emotive issue, but what do you guys think of the announcement tonight?


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## Rorschach (19 Dec 2020)

Countdown to thread being deleted in 3...2....1.....


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## Skydivermel (19 Dec 2020)

I'd say very sensible. I'm now it tier 4


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## bp122 (19 Dec 2020)

So am I. 
And I too see it as a move which is the right one (when one puts all the emotions aside) 

But the wife is furious because it is our little man's first Xmas.


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## Geoff_S (19 Dec 2020)

Oh well, never mind.


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## Geoff_S (19 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> So am I.
> And I too see it as a move which is the right one (when one puts all the emotions aside)
> 
> But the wife is furious because it is our little man's first Xmas.


He'll forgive you.


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## artie (19 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> I know this is a highly emotive issue, but what do you guys think of the announcement tonight?


Do you really want to know?


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## Rorschach (19 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> Do you really want to know?



Be careful, if your opinion isn't the "correct" one you will earn yourself a ban.


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## Bm101 (19 Dec 2020)

I'm all in favour. Or I'm not. I can't make a decision.
I'm thinking of running for Prime Minister.

Actual opinion is that if the those in charge had the _vitamins_ this would have been arranged 3 weeks back and enforced rather than blathering on and trying to suit everybody and benefitting nobody then changing all the plans at the last minute. It's pathetic.
No one wants the traditional family Christmas cancelled. Obviously. It's horrible. People are tired of it all. Yes. I know. You know. We all know ffs.
The hard choice is how long you want to spend in a hard lockdown with all its economic, social etc negatives afterwards because the tough decision wasn't made and enforced properly in the first place.
Obviously I don't have the answers, but I do have the sense to not wish it was all about my short term needs.
It's shi*e. Get used to it. I'd rather not see my parents for a day as much as I _love_ that day, cooking and eating and drinking with the most important people in my world than exponentially increase the risks of them dying in February so we could have a nice day in December.

We are often told 'No religion or Politics! It leads to Arguments!'
What we should have learned by adulthood is how to discuss these matters in a civil manner and with respect for other peoples opinion.


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## billw (19 Dec 2020)

Bottom line is that people think their personal freedom is more important than societal good. That’s how we work. We’ll get what we deserve.


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## doctor Bob (19 Dec 2020)

Teir 4 as well, I live in Hertfordshire.
Just trying to wrap my head around what I can do.
Was seeing 2x 87year old parents on Xmas day. Both not well, hope I get a few more future Christmas's.


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## bp122 (19 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> Do you really want to know?


My main intention of raising this issue is not to stir things up or cause a political argument. It is mainly to let people take our their frustration here at a safe place whilst supporting other family or friends who aren't as fortunate to have an outlet such as this. 

Yes, it is terrible, and everyone will have a story to back that emotion. And frustratingly, like many, I also understand it is necessary. And as much as I'd like to criticise the people making the calls, I wouldn't want to be in there does right now. It is just a bad time in everyone's lives at the moment. 

But the good thing is soon there will be posts about making wood smaller, or there are already some as I write this. Life goes on, I suppose.


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## Phil Pascoe (19 Dec 2020)

Being in tier one is a pain in the rrrrr, but ...


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## Rorschach (19 Dec 2020)

doctor Bob said:


> Teir 4 as well, I live in Hertfordshire.
> Just trying to wrap my head around what I can do.
> Was seeing 2x 87year old parents on Xmas day. Both not well, hope I get a few more future Christmas's.



We know it's almost certainly our last with a relative so it will be Christmas as normal for us.


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## artie (19 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Be careful, if your opinion isn't the "correct" one you will earn yourself a ban.


Been down this road before was actually told by the thread starter that my opinion wasn't the one he wanted to hear. LOL
As I told a guy the other day IRL, when he asked my opinion of the upcoming guidance.
I said "If you really want to know, I'll tell you. provided you don't tell me yours.
He didn't get it.


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## Phil Pascoe (19 Dec 2020)

A woman on the radio said she was having a family Xmas lunch for sixteen - her husband wouldn't be alive for the next one. I can't say I blame her, she was equally praised and criticised.

I do feel for people - the biggest real inconvenience for me is having to pay for beer by card in the social club.


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## bp122 (19 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> Been down this road before was actually told by the thread starter that my opinion wasn't the one he wanted to hear. LOL
> As I told a guy the other day IRL, when he asked my opinion of the upcoming guidance.
> I said "If you really want to know, I'll tell you. provided you don't tell me yours.
> He didn't get it.


Must be the same person who coined the phrase, "let's flip for it, heads I win, tails you lose!"


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## Bm101 (19 Dec 2020)

My kids are in school Bob, I'm in town (W1 /E1 ) all the time. As careful as I am I'm around a _lot_ of people. We made the decision. I would guess a lot of people will carry on regardless. It's a decison we all have to make isn't it? I'm not judging anyone here. The problem is that the careful ones like yourself are not the issue. It's the divs. The 70 percent. The nose breathers. The It's Not Real's. The How Dare They's. The School Mum's Face book Group.
Meh.

Whatever you decide to do people, I absolutely wish you the best regardless. I'm in a good mood because my Christmas meat arrived in a box today by Turner and George. Look's like meat was always on the menu boys.




__





Finest Online Butcher in the UK | Turner & George


Looking to buy meat online from an online butcher? Turner & George delivers high quality, naturally reared meat to London and the UK.




www.turnerandgeorge.co.uk


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## bp122 (19 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> A woman on the radio said she was having a family Xmas lunch for sixteen - her husband wouldn't be alive for the next one. I can't say I blame her, she was equally praised and criticised.


That's really sad though.


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## sneggysteve (19 Dec 2020)

perhaps the other 15 wont be there either?


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## Rorschach (19 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> A woman on the radio said she was having a family Xmas lunch for sixteen - her husband wouldn't be alive for the next one. I can't say I blame her, she was equally praised and criticised.



Who could criticise that?


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## artie (19 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> My main intention of raising this issue is not to stir things up or cause a political argument. It is mainly to let people take our their frustration here at a safe place whilst supporting other family or friends who aren't as fortunate to have an outlet such as this.


But you must have noticed that a balanced and courteous exchange of views is practically impossible.
If for instance one has a view supported, then loads of back up.
But if one has a view that is not supported then this suddenly becomes a woodwork forum and why are you peddling that heresy here?


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## Cheshirechappie (19 Dec 2020)

I strongly suspect that quite a lot of people will publicly express the 'right' opinion, whilst doing something entirely different themselves.

My old mum had a health scare (not Covid) just at the start of the first lockdown. That entailed me being carer, and therefore driving to and fro, doing her shopping and so on pretty well every day. Remarkable how quiet the roads were. Still doing care duties during second lockdown - traffic was marginally less than normal, but markedly more than first lockdown.

This is the worst time of year for respiratory diseases of all kinds, so it can't be any sort of surprise to any health professionals or epidemiologists that case numbers are high. Why measures couldn't be taken back in the summer to provide some extra hospital capacity over the winter, I don't know. I do know that whatever the covid outcomes, we'll be trying to recover from the economic and social colateral damage for (probably) decades. Moot point whether the 'cure' is (long term) worse than the disease.


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## Rorschach (19 Dec 2020)

Cheshirechappie said:


> I strongly suspect that quite a lot of people will publicly express the 'right' opinion, whilst doing something entirely different themselves.
> 
> My old mum had a health scare (not Covid) just at the start of the first lockdown. That entailed me being carer, and therefore driving to and fro, doing her shopping and so on pretty well every day. Remarkable how quiet the roads were. Still doing care duties during second lockdown - traffic was marginally less than normal, but markedly more than first lockdown.
> 
> This is the worst time of year for respiratory diseases of all kinds, so it can't be any sort of surprise to any health professionals or epidemiologists that case numbers are high. Why measures couldn't be taken back in the summer to provide some extra hospital capacity over the winter, I don't know. I do know that whatever the covid outcomes, we'll be trying to recover from the economic and social colateral damage for (probably) decades. Moot point whether the 'cure' is (long term) worse than the disease.



Stop it with the common sense, government has banned that.


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## Cheshirechappie (19 Dec 2020)

https://www.ukworkshop.co.uk/threads/tier-4.127272/reply?quote=1418726



*sigh* 

Sadly, I know exactly what you mean ....


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## Garno (19 Dec 2020)

Being a grumpy old git means that we are alone in the Garno house at Christmas, I really don't give a monkies what tier I am in. If the whole area is in lockdown then so be it, If the whole area is in tier 1 then happy days, it is what it is and nothing is going to change that.


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## DBT85 (19 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> So am I.
> And I too see it as a move which is the right one (when one puts all the emotions aside)
> 
> But the wife is furious because it is our little man's first Xmas.


I can say that their 2nd or 3rd (depending on when they are born) will be way more enjoyable. My little girl turned 3 in august so this year shes really into it all so its real shame she won't get a normal Christmas this year. but such is the situation we find ourselves in.

Maybe if we'd been in lockdown until xmas we could have all had a jolly but that's not how its gone. As it is I expect a full 4-6 week national lockdown come Jan 1st at the latest. 

If the Oxford Vaccine gets approved then everyone over 60 could be vaccinated by probably the middle of March which would be a big turning point.


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## TheUnicorn (19 Dec 2020)

DBT85 said:


> If the Oxford Vaccine gets approved then everyone over 60 could be vaccinated by probably the middle of March which would be a big turning point.


heard somewhere (tv) last week that it could take a year to vaccinate everyone, and then what? do the elderly and vunerable have it every year from now on like the flu jab? The oxford vaccine does seem like a game changer though in terms of cost and ease of rollout (temperature).


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## Doug B (19 Dec 2020)




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## Doug B (19 Dec 2020)

I’m absolutely gutted, the mother & father in law have said it’s best if they don’t come for Xmas this year


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## beech1948 (19 Dec 2020)

Just called my son to cancel our Xmass get together. Will miss my grandson and son.

BUT this new Tier 4 lock down is overdue. The R rates have been increasing above 1 for 3 months and no Gov'mt action. So not surprised, selfishly being self concerned but not raging.

As a diabetic I am at risk of getting this Covid rubbish; going to hospital and dying. All seems a bit extreme to me as death is a finalish thing. No coming back from that.

What does annoy me are the many thousands of people who do not keep a distance of 2 m between me than them, who crowd in to supermarkets with no thought as to otherss in their path.

The Gov is just reacting. Its not their fault but is the fault of the many useless humans who ignore all pretence of trying to distance, touching others, not wearing masks all under pretence of personal Freedom. There is no freedom in death. No freedom in struggling through infection.

I'm off back to my workshop where only good things can happen even at 9 O'clock at night


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## Doug B (19 Dec 2020)

There’s some quick witted devils out there


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## artie (19 Dec 2020)

TheUnicorn said:


> heard somewhere (tv) last week that it could take a year to vaccinate everyone, and then what? do the elderly and vunerable have it every year from now on like the flu jab? The oxford vaccine does seem like a game changer though in terms of cost and ease of rollout (temperature).


Now "they" say the virus has mutated, do you need a different vaccine. Will you have to have two vaccines? or more?


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## treeturner123 (19 Dec 2020)

It's all very well to moan and groan about this, but the risk to health, the NHS as a whole and life as we knew it in general is getting more serious due to the mutations in this (like all viruses). The balance is between what doctors etc would like ie total lockdown for a considerable time and to hell with the economy and allowing people the freedom of choice.

How many of you would like to be the PM and make these decisions. I know for one I wouldn't and I'm glad that there are politicians who do this on my behalf.

I can think of several leaders of all main parties who would have made a much worse pigs ear of it!

In any case, we should be glad and amazed that scientists can, so speedily, identify a new strain, look at ways it differs and work out the potential issues that it will give and all in less than 7 days. 

Phil - sorry not to be seeing grandchildren but wanting all his extended family to be safe this Christmas.

And as Happy a Christmas as possible to you all.


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## Phil Pascoe (19 Dec 2020)

I'd be delighted if my mother and father in law turned up for Xmas this year. Both lovely people, but both dead. 

I believe a lack of honesty and straightforwardness makes people lose faith and has caused loads of complications. I said in the beginning that it would have been sensible it the government and the press differentiated between what was advice and what was law, and I still believe that. I saw dozens of people this morning in a queue for a market butcher's - I was in the queue - standing two metres apart. Wearing masks, outdoors in a howling gale. Where on earth did they think their breath was going?

One of the thing that irritates me the most is the misuse of statistics. Lies, damned lies, statistics and government figures (I'm not knocking the government per se - whomever was in power would have screwed it up just the same). I read of someone given a week to live because of a terminal disease - he got covid and his death was recorded as caused by covid, which is undoubtedly technically correct but to my mind meaningless. In the national press a thread I was following quoted a survey that stated that 14% more people in the sample group (50% masked, 50% without) had caught covid. This "fact" was used to show that masks were wise and necessary - despite the 14% being the difference between 1.7% and 2.1% (iirc) of the sample group who caught it and not 14% of the group as a whole. The difference was small enough to have been explained by something else. In this area you're probably about twenty times more likely to catch it going shopping than you are in a pub.

I heard on the radio years ago a speaker giving a talk on the misuse of statistics. Apparently if you are teetotal you are likely to die younger than drinkers. This seems odd until it's explained - teetotal is used in its true sense, NEVER touching alcohol. It excludes your ancient maiden aunt who has a sherry every Xmas, and people who have a sip of champagne to celebrate something, but there are a lot non drinking alcoholics - which skews the figures.

I have health issues (few of you have had anything remotely like mine), I don't want to catch it, but I have an idea - if you're at risk keep out of other people's way. The rest of you get back to work and pay for it.
(Incidentally, I don't know or know of anyone who's had it, and I don't know anyone who knows anyone who has - we haven't much money down here, but plenty of south westerly wind ).


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## billw (19 Dec 2020)

Even in normal times every Xmas could be the last time you see a family member because we are beings with a multitude of ways of shuffling off this mortal coil.

Those who stubbornly demand to have a “normal” Xmas have a point that it might be the last for some, but these aren’t normal times and trying to adhere to normal might simply make it the last Xmas for some a bit quicker than it should be.

The whole thing is just a battle of dogmatism v pragmatism, rights v responsibilities, and individual v collective. Just like those news stories (in the US especially) that have headlines of “I didn’t believe COVID was real and now I’m dying from it”, everyone is free (sadly) to make their own choices and if they result in negative outcomes then sympathy is going to be hard to come by from me.


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## Phil Pascoe (19 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> Now "they" say the virus has mutated, do you need a different vaccine. Will you have to have two vaccines? or more?


I said commenting on an article in the press a few months ago that apparently two strains had been identified. An Oxbridge professor replied saying that was incorrect. There would by then probably have been hundreds.


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## billw (19 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> I said commenting on an article in the press a few months ago that apparently two strains had been identified. An Oxbridge professor replied saying that was incorrect. There would by then probably have been hundreds.



The flu has multiple strains and each year the jab only protects against four of them, decided by the WHO in March each year as being the most likely to be the ones that will be a problem.

Will a coronavirus jab be the end of all this? Of course not.


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## Noel (19 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> Now "they" say the virus has mutated, do you need a different vaccine. Will you have to have two vaccines? or more?




Unlikely, the new strain has not changed that much but if it does, vaccines can be tweaked to address the change, much like, I believe, the flu vaccine every year. 



Phil Pascoe said:


> I said commenting on an article in the press a few months ago that apparently two strains had been identified. An Oxbridge professor replied saying that was incorrect. There would by then probably have been hundreds.



There's been many thousands of changes, normal enough apparently with RNA virus but all are of little consequence other than helping to track infections.


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## t8hants (19 Dec 2020)

We have an interesting conundrum, we are tier 1, Pompey is now tier 4 half the ferry crews live in tier 4 and should not travel out of it. Our holiday camps are full of people from tiers 3 and now 4, we have even had people coming over here to visit the pub. The ferry companies have no power of enforcement so wouldn't stop anyone from coming over anyway.


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## pcb1962 (19 Dec 2020)

Chris Witty (Chief Medical Officer) was on 5 Live earlier today saying that the current vaccines will be effective against the new strain.


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## Phil Pascoe (19 Dec 2020)

They don't really know for certain they're effective against the existing one.


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## Jacob (19 Dec 2020)

6 months delayed but now down for cataract op on Jan 4. Am told total isolation from Christmas day itself as have to be tested twice before and completely clear. Otherwise could be put off for a long time (who knows) and become a permanent eyesight issue.
I'm sure it'll be fine but anybody being a bit casual could actually cause somebody else a big problem _on top_ of the bloody virus itself.


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## billw (19 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> They don't really know for certain they're effective against the existing one.



well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.


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## Jacob (19 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.


....with the risk of catching it reduced by 90%. It's a no brainer.


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## billw (19 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> ....with the risk of catching it reduced by 90%. It's a no brainer.



my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.


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## Terry - Somerset (19 Dec 2020)

Until Boris told us that the virus had mutated, I had assumed that the rapid increase in virus was due pre-xmas shopping crowds generally ignoring any behavioural guidelines. How the scientists separate shopping from mutation is a bit of a mystery!

Personally I find the new restrictions annoying but there is absolutely no point in self pity or whinging. Within 20 minutes we had reorganised xmas for an as yet to be finally agreed date in March.

2021 will be the year of two xmases!


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## pcb1962 (19 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.


It is solving at least one problem, which is that the NHS can cope with 10% of the possible number of cases that it may otherwise have to deal with, leaving resources available for all the cancer patients and others who are currently being neglected.


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## NormanB (20 Dec 2020)

Honestly - I believe Boris is a libertarian who had no intention of constraining Christmas beyond the previous arrangements. But the new fact(s) about the new strain and more recent epidemiological studies (less than 48 hours old) scared him shitless. If he was ever to discharge his responsibilities as leader he had no option to put the measures in place announced today.
Bad as it is for those put into Tier 4 it is no way as bad as listening to that odious worm Kier Starmer shrieking ’I told the PM he should do this last Wednesday’ - Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!


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## Peri (20 Dec 2020)

Working in education I cant say I've really noticed any difference in any of the levels. Our classes are the same size (if not actually larger than previous years), albeit with a bit more remote teaching than we've normally done. Social distancing is impossible.

Having said that, with a staff of considerably more than 500, and several thousand students we've only had around 50 students and a dozen staff with confirmed cases since March - so I'm possibly worrying about it far more than I need to.




Phil Pascoe said:


> I heard on the radio years ago a speaker giving a talk on the misuse of statistics........


I read/watched somewhere a great talk about statistics, the only point that sticks in my head was the speaker saying something like "The statistics show, that in Britain, the _average_ number of arms a person has is less than 2"


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## pcb1962 (20 Dec 2020)

Peri said:


> I read/watched somewhere a great talk about statistics, the only point that sticks in my head was the speaker saying something like "The statistics show, that in Britain, the _average_ number of arms a person has is less than 2"


And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.


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## sploo (20 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> my point was that taking it is not solving the problem, just reducing it.


That's the same with any vaccine though; but if you can get a decent percentage of the population immune to a particular virus then you greatly reduce the rates of transmission - such that those who cannot be vaccinated (or those who refuse, or those for whom it doesn't work) have a much reduced change of becoming infected.


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## DBT85 (20 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.


At those kind of levels you're entering into herd immunity. So many people can't get it that it helps protect those that might be susceptible. This is how most diseases are controlled. The differece here is that instead of waiting for people to spread the disease and die from it as they originally planned, immunity will be raised by injection.



NormanB said:


> Honestly - I believe Boris is a libertarian who had no intention of constraining Christmas beyond the previous arrangements. But the new fact(s) about the new strain and more recent epidemiological studies (less than 48 hours old) scared him shitless. If he was ever to discharge his responsibilities as leader he had no option to put the measures in place announced today.
> Bad as it is for those put into Tier 4 it is no way as bad as listening to that odious worm Kier Starmer shrieking ’I told the PM he should do this last Wednesday’ - Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!


Starmer is hardly the first person to have suggested it. Even public polling has suggested for weeks that xmas should have been cancelled. The govt probably didn't ask for an actual vote on it in case they dind't get the answer they wanted, not the first time in recent memory after all.


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## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

pcb1962 said:


> And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.


My two neighbours and I have an average of one leg each.


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## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

pcb1962 said:


> And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence. No wonder we're in such a mess.


But they're not the ones making it.


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## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

Rod Liddle in this morning's Times -

Chap goes to the doctor. He says: “Doc, I’m really worried about this Covid thing. How lethal is it? Do I need to wear a mask? When will we get a vaccine? And how long will the vaccine last?” And the doctor shakes his head and says: “How would I know? I’m not on Facebook.”


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## niemeyjt (20 Dec 2020)

The problem seems to be that Government action is not always driven by medical best practice. Instead, economic and social aspects drive decision making.

I return to the UK tomorrow (I hope) and I have to isolate for five full days before I can have a test on boxing day. Had I had a few extra quid in my bank account, or been an expert at kicking pigs' bladders into a net, then I wouldn't. Yet I can see no medical justification for this distinction.

HMG was too keen to ignore medical advice and reopen businesses, waive rules for Xmas etc - and this is the result. Remember the photos of non-socially distanced maskless shoppers? Had they instead operated an entirely medical driven approach then I believe yesterday's announcement would not have been necessary.


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## Keith 66 (20 Dec 2020)

Terry - Somerset said:


> Within 20 minutes we had reorganised xmas for an as yet to be finally agreed date in March.
> 2021 will be the year of two xmases!



Well as the turkey we ordered from the butcher has grown to the size of a baby T rex our christmas will last to march anyway, it will take us that long to eat it.


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## MikeJhn (20 Dec 2020)

When you talk to people about self isolation, generally it comes out that their idea of self isolation includes seeing the children and grandchildren and going shopping on a regular basis, since March this year beside the postman and the Tesco delivery man I have only seen about six other people, its easy when you live Rurally, I feel for those that can't.


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## FullFat (20 Dec 2020)

It made no sense from a disease management point of view when the easing of restrictions for the Christmas period was announced. I suppose it's better late than never that things have changed. It's tough for people but until the vaccine is rolled out it will continue to happen.


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## islayhawk (20 Dec 2020)

I live on one of the Islands off the West coast of Scotland. We have had no recorded cases. We have been on tier 1 since the start. However we are getting a bit complacent. Tourism for our whisky industry has been decimated. We are moving to tier 3 for two weeks which I personally am in favour of, if only to reinforce the severity of the situation.


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## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

Keith 66 said:


> Well as the turkey we ordered from the butcher has grown to the size of a baby T rex our christmas will last to march anyway, it will take us that long to eat it.


The closest living relative of the T. Rex is actually the chicken. A useful quiz fact.


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## doctor Bob (20 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> The closest living relative of the T. Rex is actually the chicken. A useful quiz fact.



Phil .......... you've never met Mrs Dr Bob have you................. I think you are wrong


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## brocher (20 Dec 2020)

This calculator seems to suggest when you might get the vaccine depending on age & health condition. Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK - my MIL - 93 years - anxiously waiting to hear from her GP when she can get it. She wants it now!!


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## IDIY (20 Dec 2020)

It is what it is.


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## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

As it can't be what it isn't it probably is.


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## paulrbarnard (20 Dec 2020)

brocher said:


> This calculator seems to suggest when you might get the vaccine depending on age & health condition. Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK - my MIL - 93 years - anxiously waiting to hear from her GP when she can get it. She wants it now!!


My father, spare mother in law, eldest daughter (critical care nurse) all had the vaccine last week. Ironically my daughter then tested positive for COVID the next day so she is now isolating along with her partner who just tested negative. We are now waiting to see if he develops symptoms and starts the isolation clock again. Our Christmas bubble dropped to zero even before Boris stepped in...

Another daughter just did a business trip to Germany. It cost £150 for a test on the way to Germany to avoid isolation there and then another £150 on her return to reduce the isolation to five days.


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## Lons (20 Dec 2020)

niemeyjt said:


> HMG was too keen to ignore medical advice and reopen businesses, waive rules for Xmas etc - and this is the result. Remember the photos of non-socially distanced maskless shoppers? Had they instead operated an entirely medical driven approach then I believe yesterday's announcement would not have been necessary.


Damned if they did, damned if they didn't , keeping businesses closed indefinitely just isn't possible but I fail to see how any government is responsible for the idiots above who ignored very clear advice on social distancing and masks. It's a sad fact that you can't separate humans from ignorance and selfishness. Anyone who failed to see the rules being blatantly ignored during full lockdown had their eyes firmly closed. 

I had a difference of opinion last week with the manageress of a fishery, social distancing observed of course, who said that she, her young kids and husband would not have a vaccination under any circumstances _"that is my choice"._ I asked if her kids see their grandparents, _"yes of course, they love my mum and dad"_, so I said you risk depriving your kids of that relationship as they grow older. She couldn't understand that being vaccinated is at least as much important to prevent the spread to other people as her own protection, her father btw had major heart surgery 18 months ago and is at risk due to other factors.

As an aside, many people say "I don't know anyone who's been infected", I say lucky you, tell that to the many thousands of people who have. We've had 3 people die in my extended family, one who had underlying issues so her death was hastened not caused by C-19 but the other two did not. My sister's husband died of Covid induced pneumonia and was as fit as a fiddle before catching the virus, even had he survived she was told he already had sustained serious and permanent lung damage before he was stuck on a ventilator for 3 weeks.


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## Jacob (20 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> ......
> 
> As an aside, many people say "I don't know anyone who's been infected", .......


I don't either - I also don't know anybody who has benefitted from wearing a car seat belt but I still think it's a good idea!
Come to think - it's deja vu, remember 1983 all those libertarians going on about personal freedom , seat belts and the hidden dangers of wearing them?


----------



## Phil Pascoe (20 Dec 2020)

Lons said:


> As an aside, many people say "I don't know anyone who's been infected", I say lucky you, tell that to the many thousands of people who have. We've had 3 people die in my extended family, one who had underlying issues so her death was hastened not caused by C-19 but the other two did not. My sister's husband died of Covid induced pneumonia and was as fit as a fiddle before catching the virus, even had he survived she was told he already had sustained serious and permanent lung damage before he was stuck on a ventilator for 3 weeks.



Different areas,, Bob. Not only do I not know anyone infected, I haven't spoken to anyone who knows anyone.


----------



## Ged S (20 Dec 2020)

The best you can say is better late than never


----------



## sploo (20 Dec 2020)

doctor Bob said:


> Phil .......... you've never met Mrs Dr Bob have you................. I think you are wrong


If this is Bob's final post on UKW, we can be fairly certain his wife has read the above


----------



## Terry - Somerset (20 Dec 2020)

I sometimes (well often actually) think that all the noise surrounding the pandemic is a rather futile waste of effort. A way to find someone to blame or for the media to sell column inches and viewer numbers.

The government acted too early, or too late, or without sufficient evidence. Only the government think they got it right.

It has been handled much better or worse in the US, New Zealand, Sweden, Korea, Germny, Italy. The facts are irrelevant - pursuit of statistics that support a preconceived case are paramount.

Boris wanted us to have as close as normal xmas as possible. I've bought a10kg turkey and now have to eat it all on our own.

This may be the last xmas for grandma. Entertain grandma this xmas and it may be her last.

Everybody is either irresponsible, antisocial or stupid except for me.

The concept of social responsibility seems to have bypassed a large part of the population in pursuit of more selfish goals. Personally I can buy in to the selfish bit - being 60+ and vulnerable I will selfishly avoid most social contact in the hope that I get the jab before the virus!


----------



## artie (20 Dec 2020)

I haven't verified this, but if it's genuine it raises some questions.


----------



## Jacob (20 Dec 2020)

Some answers: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
Note the sharp 2020 upturn in the year on year graph and the great leap after March in the 2020 graph


----------



## Anthraquinone (20 Dec 2020)

I am tempted to encourage anyone who is uncertain about the vaccine not to take it. That way I may get to the head of the queue faster .

I saw a bit about people flooding out of London to beat the Tier 4 lock down start. Yes - packed trains heading to all parts of the country seems only good for spreading this new strain faster that than it would otherwise.

However i am glad I am not in the position to have to make these rules up as it seems to be a completely no win situation but I do wish that they had stuck to what they were saying at the start of all this in that they would be "guided by the science" That seems to have gone by the board.

We plan to "hide" as much as possible for the next couple of months.

Stay safe everyone and have as good a Christmas as you can.

AQ


----------



## Zeddedhed (20 Dec 2020)

Self interest, stump dumb stupidity, myopic short-sightedness, gross incompetence and good old fashioned ignorance.

Assign any one or any combination of these character traits to either the public, the Government, the press or any combination of the aforementioned.

Add to the mix a lack of good clear information, good, clear and consistent advice, hidden agendas and a total lack of confidence in either of the afore mentioned groups.

Haven't we been here before?????*



* The last bit was just for fun!


----------



## Geoff_S (20 Dec 2020)

How does this affect my chocolate advent calendar? 

It was work in progress.

Do I carry on? 

So confusing!


----------



## NickVanBeest (20 Dec 2020)

You open the rest all at once, binge eat the chocolates, and forget about it as fast as possible


----------



## Jacob (20 Dec 2020)

Geoff_S said:


> How does this affect my chocolate advent calendar?
> 
> It was work in progress.
> 
> ...


I'd get it all done and dusted today while you still have the chance! 

Easter eggs are around the corner, all being well!


----------



## Lons (20 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> Different areas,, Bob. Not only do I not know anyone infected, I haven't spoken to anyone who knows anyone.


None of them live in my area either Phil, my sister for example lives near Rotherham, one in Nottingham and the other Cheshire but there are another 4 in this area who I did know personally though not family. we live in a village where people in general are being sensible which can't be said for others in the North East and parts of Northumberland. In the middle of the last lockdown the police had to break up a rave in an industrial unit close to Newcastle attended by more than 300 young people.


----------



## Spectric (20 Dec 2020)

In all of this rollercoaster ride with the pandemic the government has just always assumed that what it says people will actually do, no enforcement needed and this is so obviously not the case, just look at the high streets and travel infrastructure. People now seem to have lost the self preservation genes and it is the people not the leaders who have the power to stop the spread of this virus.


----------



## Anthraquinone (20 Dec 2020)

> Geoff_S said:
> How does this affect my chocolate advent calendar?


 
Just make sure the little boxes are 2 meters apart and you should be OK


----------



## Anthraquinone (20 Dec 2020)

> People now seem to have lost the self preservation genes and it is the people not the leaders who have the power to stop the spread of this virus.



I agree. 

Originally we were told that white people in their 20s and 30s did not have much to fear from Covid. Many, but by no means all, still seem to believe this. If enough decide that the law should not apply to them there is little anyone can do about it. The rule of law has always depended on most of the population accepting those laws. It is not helped by politicians, politician's aids or celebs seemingly thinking the law does not apply to them and even if caught all they have to do is apologize and it will be OK. Unfortunately the publicity given to these cases is very unhelpful especially when there are apparently no consequences or at least no reported.

AQ


----------



## Rorschach (20 Dec 2020)

Anthraquinone said:


> I agree.
> 
> Originally we were told that white people in their 20s and 30s did not have much to fear from Covid. Many, but by no means all, still seem to believe this. If enough decide that the law should not apply to them there is little anyone can do about it. The rule of law has always depended on most of the population accepting those laws. It is not helped by politicians, politician's aids or celebs seemingly thinking the law does not apply to them and even if caught all they have to do is apologize and it will be OK. Unfortunately the publicity given to these cases is very unhelpful especially when there are apparently no consequences or at least no reported.
> 
> AQ



Since the average age of death for covid is 83 the vast majority don't have anything to fear. It doesn't scare me or anyone in my family.


----------



## Tom K (21 Dec 2020)

Its another load of tosh, the "new" variant was found in the U.K in September it has not lead to any more deaths than the previous strain. Very few of the cases are sick people they have just been tested as positive, only 1 in 11 positive tests are true positives the other 10 are false positive or have dead traces of the virus in their respiratory tract. If the reported cases were sick and dying people it would be different it would make sense but there are no shortage of beds or ques for funeral services.


----------



## DBT85 (21 Dec 2020)

I don't think anyone has said the new strain has lead to any more deaths than the other. If SAGE is wrong then they've been as wrong as just about every other advisory board.


----------



## Trainee neophyte (21 Dec 2020)

@Phil Pascoe is on form on this thread. Have a great Christmas everyone, despite your respective governments. 

Nil carborundum.


----------



## Rorschach (21 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> Different areas,, Bob. Not only do I not know anyone infected, I haven't spoken to anyone who knows anyone.



I only know of one person locally (still not that local, 30 miles away) that has had it and tested positive. I know of another person in the Midlands who had it earlier in the year. Otherwise I couldn't name anyone and we have family and friends in medicine, police, teaching, retail, all across the southwest. 

We think an elderly relative died of it in early February but they were in their mid 90's and crippled with dementia. Could have been any number of respiratory illnesses (no tests back then) and they were going to die of something very soon anyway.


----------



## rwillett (21 Dec 2020)

You’re very lucky. I personally know six people who have had it. I also live in a very rural area of North Yorkshire. One was in intensive care in Guys early on, the two people either side of him died. My cousin died of it around five weeks ago. She was 62. Other people have reported little impact though the fittest of the lot said it was the worst thing they had ever had. 

I personally know nobody who died in the 9/11 attacks in New York and nobody I know knew anybody who did. I have lived and worked in the USA as well. Perhaps it never happened or wasn’t important?


----------



## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

paulrbarnard said:


> My father, spare mother in law, eldest daughter (critical care nurse) all had the vaccine last week. Ironically my daughter then tested positive for COVID the next day so she is now isolating along with her partner who just tested negative. We are now waiting to see if he develops symptoms and starts the isolation clock again. Our Christmas bubble dropped to zero even before Boris stepped in...
> 
> Another daughter just did a business trip to Germany. It cost £150 for a test on the way to Germany to avoid isolation there and then another £150 on her return to reduce the isolation to five days.


Sorry to hear that, Paul.


----------



## kinverkid (21 Dec 2020)

Geoff_S said:


> How does this affect my chocolate advent calendar?


According to my chocolate advent calendar, Christmas Day was last Wednesday.


----------



## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

Lons said:


> Damned if they did, damned if they didn't , keeping businesses closed indefinitely just isn't possible but I fail to see how any government is responsible for the idiots above who ignored very clear advice on social distancing and masks. It's a sad fact that you can't separate humans from ignorance and selfishness. Anyone who failed to see the rules being blatantly ignored during full lockdown had their eyes firmly closed.
> 
> I had a difference of opinion last week with the manageress of a fishery, social distancing observed of course, who said that she, her young kids and husband would not have a vaccination under any circumstances _"that is my choice"._ I asked if her kids see their grandparents, _"yes of course, they love my mum and dad"_, so I said you risk depriving your kids of that relationship as they grow older. She couldn't understand that being vaccinated is at least as much important to prevent the spread to other people as her own protection, her father btw had major heart surgery 18 months ago and is at risk due to other factors.
> 
> As an aside, many people say "I don't know anyone who's been infected", I say lucky you, tell that to the many thousands of people who have. We've had 3 people die in my extended family, one who had underlying issues so her death was hastened not caused by C-19 but the other two did not. My sister's husband died of Covid induced pneumonia and was as fit as a fiddle before catching the virus, even had he survived she was told he already had sustained serious and permanent lung damage before he was stuck on a ventilator for 3 weeks.


I agree with you there.

Mate of mine who we bought our house from, who moved only 5 doors down, lost both his parents to covid in March / April. Since then he took voluntary retirement and was drinking a lot for three months, then rolled his old garden out and rebuilt it completely.

His kids who loved their gramps very much, lost their smiles for months.

These idiots who think it's all fake or don't think it is serious, don't realize how much loss some people have had to endure, and some of them are just kids.


----------



## Nigel Burden (21 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> The closest living relative of the T. Rex is actually the chicken. A useful quiz fact.



Oh, that's why the bu**er pecks me then.

Nigel.


----------



## Nigel Burden (21 Dec 2020)

Lons said:


> None of them live in my area either Phil, my sister for example lives near Rotherham, one in Nottingham and the other Cheshire but there are another 4 in this area who I did know personally though not family. we live in a village where people in general are being sensible which can't be said for others in the North East and parts of Northumberland. In the middle of the last lockdown the police had to break up a rave in an industrial unit close to Newcastle attended by more than 300 young people.



A Bournemouth University student was fined £10k last week for repeatedly breaking covid rules by having parties in his accomodation.

Nigel.


----------



## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

Serves him right


----------



## Duncan A (21 Dec 2020)

Interesting that people are still selling items online for collection in Tier 4. Changing habits is obviously very difficult!
Duncan


----------



## sploo (21 Dec 2020)

DBT85 said:


> I don't think anyone has said the new strain has lead to any more deaths than the other. If SAGE is wrong then they've been as wrong as just about every other advisory board.


Speaking to (Doctor) wife about this; the concerns are mainly that:

1. It's a pretty rapid mutation (vs e.g. flu) - which may complicate chasing it with an updated vaccine
2. Will the currently developed vaccines be effective against this new strain


----------



## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

Duncan A said:


> Interesting that people are still selling items online for collection in Tier 4. Changing habits is obviously very difficult!
> Duncan


As long as no one is crossing tiers, it is no different to going to the shops I suppose. And it is easier to observe social distancing than in a shop.


----------



## Duncan A (21 Dec 2020)

Essential shopping only; non-essential shops are closed
Duncan


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## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

Fair enough


----------



## clogs (21 Dec 2020)

the last I heard here was that 15 people were infected and in hospital...no regisered death's tho.....

Here all people out with masks on and the whole measure is taken very seriously.....
not too many young here....and those that are observing the rules.....instant €90-150 euro fine for the noughty ones.....

from what I see of the UK news there's not enough room to lock up those silly young people flouting the rules....
while they carry on the same nothing will change...this awful problem take's youngsters as well as old'un, dont they realise.....
This time of year...

My daughter is a Paramedic and worked off her feet......

for us the same as usual.....no family (to far away and cant travel anyway).....
so we will have a quiet time, not to much good food (watching the waist line) and watch Disney, Pixar as per the norm....
Christmas morning I norm go to the workshop and sweep up while lunch is cooking....
Boxing day take the dogs to the local beach for a cpouple of hours, which is allowed......hahaha.....poo bags ready....
*
you guys n girls I wish u all the best and for a safe time this season....*


----------



## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

My wife raised an interesting question just now about schools.
A lot of kids in Haddenham (Bucks, Tier 4) go to Lord Bill's school in Thame (Oxfordshire, Tier 2) 
How is that going to work when schools reopen?


----------



## Jameshow (21 Dec 2020)

sploo said:


> Speaking to (Doctor) wife about this; the concerns are mainly that:
> 
> 1. It's a pretty rapid mutation (vs e.g. flu) - which may complicate chasing it with an updated vaccine
> 2. Will the currently developed vaccines be effective against this new strain



I had an identical conversation this morning. 

This is the big elephant in the room will the vaccine be effective against the new mutation?? 

Cheers James


----------



## Woody2Shoes (21 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.











Herd immunity - Wikipedia







en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Ditch 08 (21 Dec 2020)

niemeyjt said:


> The problem seems to be that Government action is not always driven by medical best practice. Instead, economic and social aspects drive decision making.
> 
> I return to the UK tomorrow (I hope) and I have to isolate for five full days before I can have a test on boxing day. Had I had a few extra quid in my bank account, or been an expert at kicking pigs' bladders into a net, then I wouldn't. Yet I can see no medical justification for this distinction.
> 
> HMG was too keen to ignore medical advice and reopen businesses, waive rules for Xmas etc - and this is the result. Remember the photos of non-socially distanced maskless shoppers? Had they instead operated an entirely medical driven approach then I believe yesterday's announcement would not have been necessary.


I would just be thankful that you are allowed to re-enter the country if I was you and stop complaining. Boris is dammed if does & dammed if he doesn't. Would you want to be the person that gets up and say "Sorry no Christmas this year". If you want to blame anyone, decide who/where this all started and blame them. Unfortunately C19 is here, brought in by *travelers* who had it and we now have to combat this together taking the advise from our PM and his team working with him. We will all be able to have our say when its over, 
My final point is that no-one has any idea of what will be the final outcome as we have never in the past had anything like this in the past. Yes we had the Black Death but this took years to get here, Spanish Flu after WW1 took time to spread (and did not infect the whole planet). This one spread out of control very quickly mainly as we can get around by flying etc.
So far I have lost a brother in-law to it, and my sister and my son are both still suffering the long term effects have had it. Just be thankful still to be here.


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

Jameshow said:


> This is the big elephant in the room will the vaccine be effective against the new mutation??



The current prevailing view seems to be that the changes are not big enough to affect efficacy.


----------



## Woody2Shoes (21 Dec 2020)

pcb1962 said:


> And nearly 50% of the people in this country are of below average intelligence...


How come they're all in the cabinet ??


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> The flu has multiple strains and each year the jab only protects against four of them, decided by the WHO in March each year as being the most likely to be the ones that will be a problem. Will a coronavirus jab be the end of all this? Of course not.



Flu is quite different and much more able to change itself radically. It has segmented RNA within which segments can be switched around in different combinations by mutation, making big changes in one leap. Covid doesn't, it is just one long chain, so mutation is more constrained.


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

NormanB said:


> Hey Keir - the critical information was not available then!



The numbers were very clear, the cause was still being investigated. The government was aware of the possibility as it was identified as a potential issue in early December.


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> I haven't verified this, but if it's genuine it raises some questions.



It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.


----------



## porker (21 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> My wife raised an interesting question just now about schools.
> A lot of kids in Haddenham (Bucks, Tier 4) go to Lord Bill's school in Thame (Oxfordshire, Tier 2)
> How is that going to work when schools reopen?


Was also wondering that. I don't live far from you (in Bucks) and need to go to Thame for a medical appointment (which I think is still allowed) but usually do some shopping (essential) in Thame when I am there. I guess I'm not allowed to do this? i will err on the side of caution and shop in Bucks.

I know a few people who have had C19. My neice in Devon tested positive for it but the symptoms were not too bad. Her boss (35'ish) was hospitalised with it. Both managers from her and her brothers firms (both international firms) took the wrong and inappropriate course of action wrt to government advice. I seriously wonder about the basic intelligence of some people. 

To me this has been right from the start about one main point - stopping the NHS being overwhelmed. I think most people who say it won't affect them etc. are missing the point. I'm not particulary worried about it either from my own perspective although I am classed as vulnerable because I suffer from diabetes - what I am concerned about is me spreading it to people where it does matter. This disease can increase at exponential rates very quickly and everyone needs to play their part. Problem is, too many people think they are the exception and to be fair I've seen it in the older population as much as the young. 

Stay safe everyone


----------



## Jacob (21 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.


Actually may not be fake (I haven't checked), but neither is the answer simple, as I posted earlier
"Some answers: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
Note the sharp 2020 upturn in the year on year graph and the great leap after March in the 2020 graph"


----------



## artie (21 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> It's not, it's fake, and you should have done.


Where did you verify it?


----------



## Anthraquinone (21 Dec 2020)

That O.N.S. page is probably the best source of info of Covid in the UK. (excluding Facebook and twitter  of course) 

The most telling statistic is

"In November 2020, there were 47,910 deaths registered in England, *6,241 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019)* for November; in Wales, there were 3,363 deaths registered, 576 deaths more than the five-year average for November. "

And it will probably be worse in the next few months.

Happy Christmas everyone


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Actually may not be fake (I haven't checked), but neither is the answer simple, as I posted earlier
> "Some answers: Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
> Note the sharp 2020 upturn in the year on year graph and the great leap after March in the 2020 graph"



It is fake, it was debunked by an actuary I follow on Twitter, it is comparing a not full month [edit: year] with prior full months {edit: years] and also is just wrong anyway.


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

Here, it is not the actuary I follow (Stuart McDonald - @ActuaryByDay, an excellent source of info) but he retweeted it.

It was direct from someone from the ONS


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

Anthraquinone said:


> That O.N.S. page is probably the best source of info of Covid in the UK. (excluding Facebook and twitter  of course)



I wouldn't listen to anything on Facebook even if I was on it, but there are so many good sources on Twitter if you are careful and selective. There is obviously a whole world of carp and trolling and mis/disinfo too, but there is nowhere else that can provide direct access to so many actual verified/verifiable expert voices.


----------



## Jacob (21 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> Here, it is not the actuary I follow (Stuart McDonald - @ActuaryByDay, an excellent source of info) but he retweeted it.
> 
> It was direct from someone from the ONS



OK. Figures easy to misunderstand but even easier to misrepresent!
I'm arguing with anti vax nutters in another part of the wood.


----------



## artie (21 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> It is fake, it was debunked by an actuary I follow on Twitter, it is comparing a not full month [edit: year] with prior full months {edit: years] and also is just wrong anyway.


I didn't claim it was true, because I cannot stand over that claim.

You have claimed it is fake. and claiming further that because someone claiming to be an actuary on twitter said so.

Anyway whether it is or not. We will soon be at the year end and total deaths will be easily comparable. At least I hope so.


----------



## Jake (21 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> I didn't claim it was true, because I cannot stand over that claim.



Well then it is better not to post it unless you know it is true. You were obviously concerned it might not be because you attached that disclaimer to it.

Where did you get it from?



> You have claimed it is fake. and claiming further that because someone claiming to be an actuary on twitter said so.



It is a verified account. Nick Stripe is fairly prominent. Here he is in a source you might trust more than me: Coronavirus: Nick Stripe discusses latest ONS figures | Videos | Express.co.uk 

Irrespective of that, you can also tell what he says is true if you bother to look at the numbers and think about dates and the fact a full year is different from a not yet completed year.

The thing you posted is fake and misleading and you need to process that.



> Anyway whether it is or not.



That is not a choice. The fact is it is fake.



> We will soon be at the year end and total deaths will be easily comparable.



They are easily comparable, in a so-far-this-year versus this time last year sense. 



> At least I hope so.



I don't know what your residual doubt is supposed to signify.


----------



## DBT85 (21 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> I'm arguing with anti vax nutters in another part of the wood.


Sadly this is often a complete waste of oxygen. Morons are morons.


----------



## Lons (21 Dec 2020)

_To me this has been right from the start about one main point - stopping the NHS being overwhelmed. I think most people who say it won't affect them etc. are missing the point. I'm not particulary worried about it either from my own perspective although I am classed as vulnerable because I suffer from diabetes - what I am concerned about is me spreading it to people where it does matter. This disease can increase at exponential rates very quickly and everyone needs to play their part. Problem is, too many people think they are the exception and to be fair I've seen it in the older population as much as the young. _

Exactly


----------



## Jacob (21 Dec 2020)

Could affect me if my cataract op is cancelled. Longer you leave it the more difficult it is. Already 6 months over. 
But there are others with serious life threatening conditions, being put off or deferring by choice.


----------



## Peri (21 Dec 2020)

bp122 said:


> My wife raised an interesting question just now about schools.
> A lot of kids in Haddenham (Bucks, Tier 4) go to Lord Bill's school in Thame (Oxfordshire, Tier 2)
> How is that going to work when schools reopen?



I work in further education and we've been told we'll be at work (and hence the building will be open) no matter what tier we're in.

Also from Gov.uk - Tier 4: Stay at Home


----------



## Anthraquinone (21 Dec 2020)

Artie
That O.N.S. link Jacob originally posted 

Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics. 

publishes them monthly


----------



## Phil Pascoe (21 Dec 2020)

My sister in law and her husband are going to their daughter's for Xmas. I'm not sure exactly where she lives, but it's six or seven counties away. It's very probably his last Xmas alive so I can't in all honesty say I blame them.


----------



## artie (21 Dec 2020)

Anthraquinone said:


> Artie
> That O.N.S. link Jacob originally posted
> 
> Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics.
> ...


Thank you.
I'll have a look later.


----------



## Rorschach (21 Dec 2020)

Quite busy in the shops today. Enjoyed a nice lunch, the restaurant was fairly full, we were the youngest by at least 40 years.


----------



## Jacob (21 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Quite busy in the shops today. Enjoyed a nice lunch, the restaurant was fairly full, we were the youngest by at least 40 years.


Live fast, die young!


----------



## Rorschach (21 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Live fast, die young!



Me or them? They were all too old to die young.


----------



## Just4Fun (21 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> I'm arguing with anti vax nutters in another part of the wood.


I'm firmly in the Anti-Vax camp. Not a mainstream view perhaps, but I have my reasons, like many anti-vaxxers. 
It is important that everyone approaches this sensitive topic armed with the information THEY know to be true. I know my truth and I have first-hand experience that backs up my stance: I once had a Vax and it was the worst vacuum cleaner ever. I will never buy one again. All these armchair experts have clearly never experienced the disappointment of having to go over the same piece of carpet, again and again, to pick up the same biscuit crumbs or dog hair. I am firmly in the Henry Hoover camp and I cannot be told otherwise.


----------



## Woody2Shoes (21 Dec 2020)

artie said:


> ...........
> 
> Anyway whether it is or not. We will soon be at the year end and total deaths will be easily comparable. At least I hope so.





Just4Fun said:


> I'm firmly in the Anti-Vax camp. Not a mainstream view perhaps, but I have my reasons, like many anti-vaxxers.
> It is important that everyone approaches this sensitive topic armed with the information THEY know to be true. I know my truth and I have first-hand experience that backs up my stance: I once had a Vax and it was the worst vacuum cleaner ever. I will never buy one again. All these armchair experts have clearly never experienced the disappointment of having to go over the same piece of carpet, again and again, to pick up the same biscuit crumbs or dog hair. I am firmly in the Henry Hoover camp and I cannot be told otherwise.


I'm very much pro-Vax ... File:LCM - DEC VAX 11-780-5 - 01.jpg - Wikimedia Commons


----------



## paulrbarnard (21 Dec 2020)

Woody2Shoes said:


> I'm very much pro-Vax ... File:LCM - DEC VAX 11-780-5 - 01.jpg - Wikimedia Commons


Now that was a computer that sucked.


----------



## Phil Pascoe (21 Dec 2020)

Just4Fun said:


> I am firmly in the Henry Hoover camp and I cannot be told otherwise.


Henry for indoors, Lidl for the car, workshop, garden, drive ...


----------



## Nigel Burden (21 Dec 2020)

Daughter has a Harry. You can't replace the drive belts on the tools, so you have to replace the whole tool when the drive belt wears.

Nigel.


----------



## Anthraquinone (21 Dec 2020)

I am going to have to start taking things even more seriously than I normally do. 

We have just got back from the normal late night shopping trip. No customers as usual but not much left on the shelves either. No canned toms, no pasta, very little veg - but more worryingly *NO TOILET PAPER*. 

You can always tell that the country heading for disaster if peoples main concern is to buy toilet paper by the shed load.


----------



## Phil Pascoe (21 Dec 2020)

We have to stock up on bog paper now that the News of The World no longer exists.


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## Tom K (21 Dec 2020)

In those ONS pages linked by Jacob it states top cause of death in September 2020 to be Alzheimer's and Dementia with Covid oddly as the 19th highest cause of death. Those comparing this pandemic to real disasters like Spanish Flu or the Black Death are way off the mark, it has been calculated that pro rata per population the Spanish Flu would by this stage in our "Pandemic" have killed about 120m and has been recorded the Black Death literally decimated the population of Europe. You will never succeed in running away from this virus it will run it's course and be gone, this pandemic will be recorded as a bizarre act of mass hysteria in years to come. Yes it is real, yes it can be a nasty thing and even kill you if your immune system is lacking but it is not a serious enough disease to shut down the world and destroy the economy for!


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## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

porker said:


> Was also wondering that. I don't live far from you (in Bucks) and need to go to Thame for a medical appointment (which I think is still allowed) but usually do some shopping (essential) in Thame when I am there. I guess I'm not allowed to do this? i will err on the side of caution and shop in Bucks.
> 
> I know a few people who have had C19. My neice in Devon tested positive for it but the symptoms were not too bad. Her boss (35'ish) was hospitalised with it. Both managers from her and her brothers firms (both international firms) took the wrong and inappropriate course of action wrt to government advice. I seriously wonder about the basic intelligence of some people.
> 
> ...





Just4Fun said:


> I'm firmly in the Anti-Vax camp. Not a mainstream view perhaps, but I have my reasons, like many anti-vaxxers.
> It is important that everyone approaches this sensitive topic armed with the information THEY know to be true. I know my truth and I have first-hand experience that backs up my stance: I once had a Vax and it was the worst vacuum cleaner ever. I will never buy one again. All these armchair experts have clearly never experienced the disappointment of having to go over the same piece of carpet, again and again, to pick up the same biscuit crumbs or dog hair. I am firmly in the Henry Hoover camp and I cannot be told otherwise.



Just about the best post I read in a while!!!!


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## bp122 (21 Dec 2020)

Anthraquinone said:


> I am going to have to start taking things even more seriously than I normally do.
> 
> We have just got back from the normal late night shopping trip. No customers as usual but not much left on the shelves either. No canned toms, no pasta, very little veg - but more worryingly *NO TOILET PAPER*.
> 
> You can always tell that the country heading for disaster if peoples main concern is to buy toilet paper by the shed load.


We were quite lucky when we redid or bathroom in Feb this year, just before the lockdown, we had installed a heated douche spray by the toilet.

Thought it might come in handy for obvious reasons and for washing down the little monster after he would have a poonami (he wasn't born then, but a rare foresight)

When the first lockdown hit and all the people were fighting over the TP stocks, we were fairly content knowing our derriere is covered! 

Now that we have had the little man for nearly 9 months, it has been invaluable!!!


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## MCTWoodwork (22 Dec 2020)

The way I see this whole lockdown / Covid tier system is....here goes...It's a massive power grab. A power grab with addition of public funds, those funds (tax payers money, yours and mine) have been shifted from public hands into private. 12 Billion GBP to Serco for example. The virus is real, it kills people, but so does every other disease on the planet. We all die. Our freedoms has been eroded right before our eyes and right under our noses.

My view (which I suspect is wholly opposite to 90% of the views on here) may sound outrageous to you but it's always healthy to consider an opposing opinion before immediately discounting it because it's the polar opposite to "mine". If allowed to carry on there will be no economy left. The talk of Universal Income is horrifying. People should be able to earn their own money, run their own businesses & all without a heavy handed State ordering people around. This is meant to a Democracy we live in!

This virus has been weaponised & policitised in order to control the masses by governments all over the world and have allowed laws to be passed (Yes LAWS) with ZERO debate and NO VOTES by our MP's in Parliment under the guise of "it's a pandemic" a "national crisis" unprecidented in peace time Britain - all I've said here are verifiable facts, please, go ahead i urge you to look up them for yourself.

The human body can fight off any disease known or unknown if the immune system isn't compromised. For example take the time to READ the life's works of the Austrian herbalist Maria Treben. Pharmacological medicine is allopathic, it treats symptoms & not the body as a holistic whole. Another example, if one looks at the life of Paracelus the Swiss Physician one would find the mixture of herbs (11 in fact) known commonly as "Swedish Bitters". Bitter foods have been lost in the UK/US Western diet. The taste bitter isn't bad for you it's GOOD for you. Besides the benefits for ones digestion and a whole load of other diseases this can stop the onslaught of the latter stages of Covid (aka - an upper respiratory infections) never mind stopping it dead in it's tracks. The latter stages of Covid are known as a "Ketone storm" where the immune system attacks itself and organ failure starts to kicks in. I really think herbal medicine has it's place in our NHS, if not people should wake up to its efficacy. I know this all sounds too good to be true but for someone who had all the hallmarks of the disease back in mid January (I'm in my late 30's, played football and rugby and done many martial arts all my life - i'm fairly fit bloke - I couldn't get halfway up the stairs! I do an active job, telecoms engineer - climbing ladders etc etc) of this year I have followed my own advice and recovered using this simple but powerful concoction of herbs.

I'm not saying the clinically vulnerable shouldn't shield, I'm not saying go around hugging each other and have 20 over at christmas, all I'm saying is that for millennia humans have healed with herbs and western medicine and science isn't the magic elixir for all our ills and ailments. Listening to the radio and news, with it's body count and infection rate over and over for the past 9 months and you will start to believe what is spoon fed to you. It will also make to so unbeliveably scared out of your mind that you are unable to leave your bedroom let alone your house! Even if you are perfectly fit and well! For your body to 'able' and your mind to 'sick' because someone 'a professor!' has told you so! Now that makes me so ANGRY......... REALLY ANGRY!

All this post is about is a plea to your thinking brain, your logical brain - I'm begging you to all THINK. I'm a key worker in telecoms, I respect all others opinions, I abide by all the 'rules'! I won't stand too close to you at Tesco's and I wash my hands, wear gloves and a mask as i'm told to do but it doesn't mean I agree with it. I find the waste and damage to the enviroment abhorrent. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, i'm not an anti anything. I'm a man, a human like you and I CARE. I CARE about my fellow man/woman & the enviroment we live in and the freedoms we all have clearly taken for granted.

What does concern me greatly is mis-information and people being brainwashed. Brainwashed and robbed. Robbed by people whom millions voted for. Politicians of whichever colour, on whichever side of the House are not out for you or I - They are out for themselves.

You cannot blindly accept what 'they' tell you without considering anothers opinion. Otherwise you haven't got a chance of defending your own.

Ps - I love wood, I love woodworking in all it's forms. I did a year long professional designer maker course on a sabbatical from my employer 18months ago and it was the best time of my life - there are time served trademen on this forum all working with such a beautiful material, I doff my cap to you all. My plan is to earn a living working with wood. May you all have a magical Christmas/Festive Period & New Year. Here's to a great 2021.

*Steps down off soapbox*


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## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> In those ONS pages linked by Jacob it states top cause of death in September 2020 to be Alzheimer's and Dementia with Covid oddly as the 19th highest cause of death. Those comparing this pandemic to real disasters like Spanish Flu or the Black Death are way off the mark, it has been calculated that pro rata per population the Spanish Flu would by this stage in our "Pandemic" have killed about 120m and has been recorded the Black Death literally decimated the population of Europe. You will never succeed in running away from this virus it will run it's course and be gone, this pandemic will be recorded as a bizarre act of mass hysteria in years to come. Yes it is real, yes it can be a nasty thing and even kill you if your immune system is lacking but it is not a serious enough disease to shut down the world and destroy the economy for!


Why don't you drop a line to the various science institutions, epidemiologists and other experts and tell them you've seen a flaw in their arguments? If you are right you could save the world from a lot of bother!


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## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Why don't you drop a line to the various science institutions, epidemiologists and other experts and tell them you've seen a flaw in their arguments? If you are right you could save the world from a lot of bother!



The government knows this, it's the fact they lie to us and continue in spite of the evidence to carry on down the path to destruction that is so worrying.


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## gregmcateer (22 Dec 2020)

MCT 
That is a good thoughtful post and not a mad rant.
I don't know if the power grab is intentional by governments, (and am not saying you are either), but big pharma and big biz will always try to 'power grab' as the economy relies on growth, otherwise it shrinks. The irony is that 'the economy' is banded about as the be all and end all, yet it too isnt actually 'real'. Money and the markets are manipulated all the time as people try to get an edge over competitors and governments fiddling around the edges (and our pensions etc require them so to do). I think it's probably more the nation states' hang ups with their own economies that lead to the loud cries of Shame!

It seems Taiwan and South Korea may have handled it a little better without crushing their economy, but I doubt the post colonial West will want to learn from 'Johnny foreigner'


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## Yorkieguy (22 Dec 2020)

The updated statistics for November at the ONS link show a marked increase in deaths directly attributable to Covid-19 as the underlying cause of death. In both England and Wales in November it was the leading cause of death. 

It's worth noting that from 2001 to 2018, for the whole family of coronaviruses, in England and Wales, there were just 12 deaths directly attributable to a coronavirus, and a further 13 where it was a contributory factor:






Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics


Provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) and leading causes of death.



www.ons.gov.uk





Some snippets:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) was the leading cause of death in November 2020 for the first time since May 2020 in both England (accounting for 18.1% of all deaths registered in November) and Wales (21.6% of all deaths. Based on provisional data, there were 47,910 deaths registered in England in November 2020. This was 5,630 more deaths than in November 2019 and 6,241 deaths more than the five-year average (2015 to 2019)

In this bulletin, we use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths with an underlying cause of death of COVID-19 and we use the term "involving COVID-19" when referring to deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned anywhere on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or not.

In both England and Wales, the coronavirus (COVID-19) was the leading cause of death in November 2020, with 191.3 deaths per 100,000 people in England (8,686 deaths) and 260.0 deaths per 100,000 people in Wales (726 deaths). COVID-19 has not been the leading cause of death since May 2020. The disease has risen from the third most common cause of death registered in England and Wales in October 2020.

The rate of deaths due to COVID-19 was significantly higher than the next leading cause of death in both England and Wales. In England, the second most common cause of death in November 2020 was dementia and Alzheimer's disease, with 104.7 deaths per 100,000 people (4,772 deaths).

In Wales, ischaemic heart diseases were the second most common cause of death, with 113.5 deaths per 100,000 people (316 deaths). The COVID-19 mortality rate was more than double the next leading cause of death (ischaemic heart diseases) in Wales.

*Coronaviruses:*

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines coronaviruses as "a large family of viruses that are known to cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)". Between 2001 and 2018, there were 12 deaths in England and Wales due to a coronavirus infection, with a further 13 deaths mentioning the virus as a contributory factor on the death certificate.

End quote.

No doubt due to continued lack of social responsibility Covid-19 will go about its business and continue to prove Darwin's theory of the non-survival of the stupidest. Nothing will change. The vaccine won't help much in the short term - infections increase exponentially, the rate at which injections can be administered can only be increased linearly.


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## Phil Pascoe (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> I really think herbal medicine has it's place in our NHS, if not people should wake up to its efficacy.



What makes you think all known herbal medicines haven't been tested?


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## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> What makes you think all known herbal medicines haven't been tested?



They have.
There is a word for "herbal medicines" and "alternative medicines" that are found to be efficacious, that word is "Medicine"


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## bp122 (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> The way I see this whole lockdown / Covid tier system is....here goes...It's a massive power grab. A power grab with addition of public funds, those funds (tax payers money, yours and mine) have been shifted from public hands into private. 12 Billion GBP to Serco for example. The virus is real, it kills people, but so does every other disease on the planet. We all die. Our freedoms has been eroded right before our eyes and right under our noses.
> 
> My view (which I suspect is wholly opposite to 90% of the views on here) may sound outrageous to you but it's always healthy to consider an opposing opinion before immediately discounting it because it's the polar opposite to "mine". If allowed to carry on there will be no economy left. The talk of Universal Income is horrifying. People should be able to earn their own money, run their own businesses & all without a heavy handed State ordering people around. This is meant to a Democracy we live in!
> 
> ...



I hear what you are saying and it is very well laid out set of points as well.

I lived in India for the first 22 years of my life. Herbal medicines are huge there. It is called Ayurveda and there is a huge industry now.
So much that one can study for 5 years and become a doctor in Ayurveda, which is a non intrusive way of treating issues, meaning no surgeries or cutting open the skin in any way.

However, the issue is, once people realize there is a market and a potential monetary advantage, things start to take a turn for the worst. Companies making medicines sometimes don't conform to certain medical standards in order to get their products of the shelves sooner. The same happens with any form of medical (or at a stretch, any manufacturing entity)

That is why there are standards in place which companies need to follow.

My point in all this is, I have seen people back home who blatantly believe that the government is lying, "Western" medicine (as it is referred to there) is leaps and bounds behind the ancient cures which have been followed for millennia. And that we shouldn't believe what 'they' tell us.

But such is the nature of information. It needs to be passed on. Unless we are qualified to study this or any virus in our own homes, performing year long experiments on unfortunate rodents, draw out results, re test to repeat the results, study the side effects and then come to a new conclusion, we need to have faith in the standards and the information passed on. After all, all the ancient cures weren't handed over to a person, they were again a set of known variables which were treated for years and years and then concluded. It literally took 1000s of years.
And most of the medicines we have now trace their ingredients or origins to nature anyway. 

Just because the advancements in science allows our generation of scientists to study something at an advanced pace compared to our ancestors, doesn't automatically mean they are wrong or have a secret agenda.

Am I saying all that we are told is right, no. Am I saying that they have all the answers, no. What I am saying is that no one operation or organisation knows our understands the full picture. They are doing their best to make sense of it all and make decisions based on the latest information they have.

For every good alternate medicine that works, there are 100s of fraudulent "services" that don't work and even cause harm, financially and sometimes even medically. Saying one is right and one is wrong maybe a little bit shortsighted.

It comes back to what was said in the beginning of this thread, no one wants their job right now where all they can say is we hope for the best and make tough decisions which are almost always received in anger.


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## billw (22 Dec 2020)

When I was in Singapore I noticed that the university had a Chinese medicine clinic, and did a full 5 year degree in it. If it was totally bunkum I doubt a reputable institution would be teaching it at that level.

The whole thing has probably got bogged down in the fact you can buy pills made of grass and dandelion seeds that "cure cancer" for a fiver. Desperate times, desperate measures and stuff like that is just preying on the vulnerable.

@MCTWoodwork your critique of universal income is interesting. However, the predictions for the future, at one extreme, put the vast proportion of AI power in the hands of the US and China. They could effectively ransom every other economy whilst decimating jobs globally, leaving both no money and no jobs (well, obviously not NO jobs, but you know...) outside their borders. If there's no jobs to do it won't matter how much someone wants to be free of government control. Universal income might be necessary as a way of distributing wealth and income (funded by massively taxing the countries supplying the AI).


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## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> When I was in Singapore I noticed that the university had a Chinese medicine clinic, and did a full 5 year degree in it. If it was totally bunkum I doubt a reputable institution would be teaching it at that level.



Don't count on that. Just because you can do a degree in it doesn't mean it's effective or backed up by science. You can do degrees in Chiropractic, Osteopathy, Homeopathy, Reiki, Reflexology, any number of quack "medicines". The list goes on. None of them work when tested but still you can get a degree. If there is a money to be made people will take advantage, universities included.


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## Tom K (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Why don't you drop a line to the various science institutions, epidemiologists and other experts and tell them you've seen a flaw in their arguments? If you are right you could save the world from a lot of bother!


They aren't listening Jacob they are following other agenda's. We have been pushed into this with statistics and mathematical projections. I can't remember the numbers I believe it was 50,000 cases a week by September that they were spouting about, unlike you Jacob I don't live in rural Derbyshire I live in the busy and massively overpopulated south east and have worked throughout the "PANDEMIC" the main thing missing for me are sick people and dead people. They just are not there. Meanwhile the over run NHS have hidden away and stopped treating cancer patients and those waiting for non life threatening ops like cataracts may as well go whistle.
I know you don't see it the way I do Jacob sadly there is a good chance you never will with all the scaremongering going on.


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## Phil Pascoe (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> They have.
> There is a word for "herbal medicines" and "alternative medicines" that are found to be efficacious, that word is "Medicine"


And if they were as or more effective than mainstream medicines, they'd be the mainstream medicines, wouldn't they?


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## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> And if they were as or more effective than mainstream medicines, they'd be the mainstream medicines, wouldn't they?



They certainly would be. Pharmaceutical companies would jump on the chance to market anything available that worked. If Homeopathy worked for instance it would make their profit margins soar.


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## stuckinthemud (22 Dec 2020)

Interesting. Try requesting an ambulance. I'm in South Wales, friend suffered a nasty fall. Was still awaiting assistance 24 hours later, ambulances filled with covid patients stacked outside hospitals too full to admit their patients. Wife's friend's friend with terminal cancer has been told if they get c19 they're on their own as hospital has to prioritise c19 patients with better long term prospects


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## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> They certainly would be. Pharmaceutical companies would jump on the chance to market anything available that worked. If Homeopathy worked for instance it would make their profit margins soar.


Ditto herbal remedies. The big difference with homeopathy is that many herbal remedies do work and are incorporated (i.e. not as "herbal remedies") into modern medicine, whereas homeopathy doesn't and isn't, except as a harmless placebo. Natural products derived from plants as a source of drugs


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## RogerM (22 Dec 2020)

This all reminds me of one of Bernard Wooley's irregular verbs (from "Yes Prime Minister"). *He* breaks the law, *You* bend the rules, *I* exercise discretion.


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## Terry - Somerset (22 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> And if they were as or more effective than mainstream medicines, they'd be the mainstream medicines, wouldn't they?



Absolutely right. 

But those who are suffering will look for any port in a storm, or any quack remedy purported to bring relief from whatever they suffer from. 

It may have little or no scientific credibilty, but if by spending some money people are convinced it is doing them good then it probably is. 

The mind, belief and emotions are powerful things. A little like the covid conspiracy theorists. It doesn't matter there is no credible evidence for their beliefs, that they believe them to be true makes it so. Others may be less than convinced.


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## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> .....the main thing missing for me are sick people and dead people. They just are not there. .....


Probably because they are tucked away in hospitals or graves. 
I've never met anybody whose life has been saved by wearing a seat belt but it doesn't mean they don't work and it's only through statistics that we know this


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## billw (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Probably because they are tucked away in hospitals or graves.
> I've never met anybody whose life has been saved by wearing a seat belt but it doesn't mean they don't work and it's only through statistics that we know this



I'd have been through a couple of windscreens if I hadn't been wearing a seatbelt.


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## MCTWoodwork (22 Dec 2020)

gregmcateer said:


> MCT
> That is a good thoughtful post and not a mad rant.
> I don't know if the power grab is intentional by governments, (and am not saying you are either), but big pharma and big biz will always try to 'power grab' as the economy relies on growth, otherwise it shrinks. The irony is that 'the economy' is banded about as the be all and end all, yet it too isnt actually 'real'. Money and the markets are manipulated all the time as people try to get an edge over competitors and governments fiddling around the edges (and our pensions etc require them so to do). I think it's probably more the nation states' hang ups with their own economies that lead to the loud cries of Shame!
> 
> It seems Taiwan and South Korea may have handled it a little better without crushing their economy, but I doubt the post colonial West will want to learn from 'Johnny foreigner'



I agree, it's the handling of this pandemic and restriction of freedoms and all that incessant fear mongering I don't like. I hate it. Look around you and watch people being led like donkeys to their AVOIDABLE slaughter nappies on their faces. A virus in nano millimetres in size, a 3 ply mask isn't going to stop it. Its here to stay for the foreseeable future mutating (as all virus do... no surprise there...!) so a person's immune response adapts, it fights back. The word fight is awful. Tries to return to balance 8s much more appropriate. Look to 3000 years plus of Chinese Medicine on how the body ACTAULLY works and you will realise Western medicine knows very little of how our body functions in relation to disease. "Dis-ease" starts in the mind. I don't want to appear like a keyboard warrior I'm just damn passionate about freedom and health (both physical and mental) Talkikg of the mental health crisis coming next year in my humble opinion it can easily EASILY be avoided if people THINK. I really do wish people took a step back and realised what was going on. That said I'm a peace loving person who wishes only the best for my fellow man, who wants the same happiness & opportunity for all in this world. Utopian view you might cry, hard core Liberal nutter you might cry. I'm none of those things! I just want to treated as I treat others, with a kind heart & with respect, whatever their views on this whole sorry mess of a year ! 

*2nd time steps off soap box*


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## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> I agree, it's the handling of this pandemic and restriction of freedoms and all that incessant fear mongering I don't like. I hate it. Look around you and watch people being led like donkeys to their AVOIDABLE slaughter nappies on their faces. A virus in nano millimetres in size, a 3 ply mask isn't going to stop it. Its here to stay for the foreseeable future mutating (as all virus do... no surprise there...!) so a person's immune response adapts, it fights back. The word fight is awful. Tries to return to balance 8s much more appropriate. Look to 3000 years plus of Chinese Medicine on how the body ACTAULLY works and you will realise Western medicine knows very little of how our body functions in relation to disease. "Dis-ease" starts in the mind. I don't want to appear like a keyboard warrior I'm just damn passionate about freedom and health (both physical and mental) Talkikg of the mental health crisis coming next year in my humble opinion it can easily EASILY be avoided if people THINK. I really do wish people took a step back and realised what was going on. That said I'm a peace loving person who wishes only the best for my fellow man, who wants the same happiness & opportunity for all in this world. Utopian view you might cry, hard core Liberal nutter you might cry. I'm none of those things! I just want to treated as I treat others, with a kind heart & with respect, whatever their views on this whole sorry mess of a year !
> 
> *2nd time steps off soap box*


Chinese remedies didn't help the Chinese with the virus. Chinese modern epidemiology/medicine did. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30800-8/fulltext


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## MCTWoodwork (22 Dec 2020)

Terry - Somerset said:


> Absolutely right.
> 
> But those who are suffering will look for any port in a storm, or any quack remedy purported to bring relief from whatever they suffer from.
> 
> ...


I'm none of those things and 'quackery' is your only response to what I thought was caring response to the subject about what is going on in the world. You keep you your views and I'll keep to mine.


Jacob said:


> Chinese medicine didn't help the Chinese with the virus.




And you know that how? What is your source?


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## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> I agree, it's the handling of this pandemic and restriction of freedoms and all that incessant fear mongering I don't like. I hate it. Look around you and watch people being led like donkeys to their AVOIDABLE slaughter nappies on their faces. A virus in nano millimetres in size, a 3 ply mask isn't going to stop it. Its here to stay for the foreseeable future mutating (as all virus do... no surprise there...!) so a person's immune response adapts, it fights back. The word fight is awful. Tries to return to balance 8s much more appropriate. Look to 3000 years plus of Chinese Medicine on how the body ACTAULLY works and you will realise Western medicine knows very little of how our body functions in relation to disease. "Dis-ease" starts in the mind. I don't want to appear like a keyboard warrior I'm just damn passionate about freedom and health (both physical and mental) Talkikg of the mental health crisis coming next year in my humble opinion it can easily EASILY be avoided if people THINK. I really do wish people took a step back and realised what was going on. That said I'm a peace loving person who wishes only the best for my fellow man, who wants the same happiness & opportunity for all in this world. Utopian view you might cry, hard core Liberal nutter you might cry. I'm none of those things! I just want to treated as I treat others, with a kind heart & with respect, whatever their views on this whole sorry mess of a year !
> 
> *2nd time steps off soap box*



Wait, does the disease start in the mind or with the virus? Does the virus get into the mind or does the mind attract the virus. I am confused.


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## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> ....
> And you know that how? What is your source?







__





DEFINE_ME






www.thelancet.com


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## NormanB (22 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> well it’s only 90% effective anyway, so if everyone in the UK got vaccinated that leaves 6m people at risk.


It is much more nuanced than that. The trials of the Oxford Vaccine did reveal 90 % effective in preventing people from catching or developing serious illness but importantly zero deaths whereas in the control group much more serious illness and of course deaths. Real world deployment at scale will reveal different outcomes but from this end of the telescope it is ‘encouraging’.


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## NormanB (22 Dec 2020)

sploo said:


> That's the same with any vaccine though; but if you can get a decent percentage of the population immune to a particular virus then you greatly reduce the rates of transmission - such that those who cannot be vaccinated (or those who refuse, or those for whom it doesn't work) have a much reduced change of becoming infected.


Agreed but much more importantly is protecting those who are vaccinated (Hospital front line, older people, clinically vulnerable) protects them from serious illness and admission to hospital. Hospital capacity is the key indicator. Herd immunity may happen later, for much of 2021 chipping away at safeguarding capacity and the most vulnerable is the name of the game.


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## DBT85 (22 Dec 2020)

Govt doesn't react as fast as most science says it should, and some people are saying all these govts are just power grabbing? 

Those scientists really are trying to take over the world then.


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## billw (22 Dec 2020)

DBT85 said:


> Govt doesn't react as fast as most science says it should, and some people are saying all these govts are just power grabbing?
> 
> Those scientists really are trying to take over the world then.



Well, one of the theories is that governments are using this to test the reaction to more authoritarian rule. I'm not subscribing to all this nonsense to be honest, and even if it's true I really couldn't care much either. Can I still watch football and make sawdust? Yes? Great. I'm in.


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## NickVanBeest (22 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> Well, one of the theories is that governments are using this to test the reaction to more authoritarian rule. I'm not subscribing to all this nonsense to be honest, and even if it's true I really couldn't care much either. Can I still watch football and make sawdust? Yes? Great. I'm in.


Guess the powers that be know that the society (capitalism) we live in is unsustainable with the way wealth is distributed, and fear a revolution, hence the perception that they are testing a more authoritarian rule? But whatever, like you say, as long as we can make sawdust, I'm good (don't like sports, so no footie needed for me)


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## NormanB (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Since the average age of death for covid is 83 the vast majority don't have anything to fear. It doesn't scare me or anyone in my family.


Averages are useless information. I assume you have more legs than average.


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## NormanB (22 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> The numbers were very clear, the cause was still being investigated. The government was aware of the possibility as it was identified as a potential issue in early December.


That was the ‘critical’ information.


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## Jake (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> AVOIDABLE slaughter nappies on their faces. A virus in nano millimetres in size, a 3 ply mask isn't going to stop it.



The purpose of mask wearing is not to protect the person wearing the mask, it is to protect others in case the wearer is infectious. The size of the virus itself is irrelevant, as it is not emitted in the form of individual viruses but in droplets/aerosol particles. Masks are proven to reduce spread and it is spectacularly selfish to argue against wearing them.


----------



## NormanB (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> I'm none of those things and 'quackery' is your only response to what I thought was caring response to the subject about what is going on in the world. You keep you your views and I'll keep to mine.
> 
> 
> 
> And you know that how? What is your source?


I believe tin foil hats work too.
I am not gullible because I have a magic fish too.


----------



## Jake (22 Dec 2020)

NormanB said:


> It is much more nuanced than that. The trials of the Oxford Vaccine did reveal 90 % effective in preventing people from catching or developing serious illness but importantly zero deaths whereas in the control group much more serious illness and of course deaths. Real world deployment at scale will reveal different outcomes but from this end of the telescope it is ‘encouraging’.



100% against serious illness (none at at all in the vaccinated group in the trial). The c90% is against mild illness (mild in context of COVID which I think means no ARDS).


----------



## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> ......) Talkikg of the mental health crisis coming next year in my humble opinion it can easily EASILY be avoided if people THINK. .......


Or DRINK?
Several suggestions that post covid will be big party time, the Roaring 20s back again. 
Sounds good to me, could be worth isolating for!


----------



## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> The purpose of mask wearing is not to protect the person wearing the mask, it is to protect others in case the wearer is infectious. The size of the virus itself is irrelevant, as it is not emitted in the form of individual viruses but in droplets/aerosol particles. Masks are proven to reduce spread and it is spectacularly selfish to argue against wearing them.



I am afraid there is no proof they reduce the spread. If you would like to link to any peer reviewed studies that show otherwise please do.


----------



## Phil Pascoe (22 Dec 2020)

Cracking bit of scaremongering/misreporting/misuse of statistics. Headline in The Times - "25% of covid cases caught in hospital."
When you read the article it said 25% of covid cases in hospital were already in hospital for some other reason when it was caught. Nothing whatsoever to do with the population as a whole. (The headline wasn't edited even after this was pointed out.)


----------



## MCTWoodwork (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Wait, does the disease start in the mind or with the virus? Does the virus get into the mind or does the mind attract the virus. I am confused.



Oooh.....Chaos theory territory....let's really get this thread going!!! Wait...is that the chicken or the egg came first theory??  Quack quackery the lot of it if you tell me....


----------



## stuckinthemud (22 Dec 2020)

It is my personal belief that masks do nothing except help out the fashion industry, keeping hands scrupulously clean is essential, however, when you consider how many potentially contaminated surfaces you can touch on any trip out: fuel pumps, key pads, door handles, for example


----------



## MCTWoodwork (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Or DRINK?
> Several suggestions that post covid will be big party time, the Roaring 20s back again.
> Sounds good to me, could be worth isolating for!
> 
> View attachment 98963


Absolutely... I love the 1920's art deco period of furniture/design. And pretty dancing ladies. I'll drink to that.


----------



## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> I am afraid there is no proof they reduce the spread. If you would like to link to any peer reviewed studies that show otherwise please do.


There may be no proof but it is a reasonable surmise, on the basis of what is known. Actual proof would be extremely difficult to obtain so an estimate of probability has to do instead.


----------



## artie (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> so an estimate of probability has to do instead.


Or perhaps a computer model, we have seen how accurate they are.


----------



## porker (22 Dec 2020)

Well my 17 yr old daughter is booked in for a C19 test tomorrow as she is showing symptoms and we have had two notification that she has been contact traced to two kids at her school that testing positive, so we'll soon know what we're getting for Xmas


----------



## billw (22 Dec 2020)

I have to say I'm perplexed by the comparisons of death rates in previous years to try and figure out the effect of the virus. Surely that's next to impossible even to estimate?

We've got more people so death rates should go up, but people live longer so they come down, then there's a more diverse ethnic mix, changes in poverty levels, all the less-common causes of death that might peak and trough in a given year. 

Sounds like you might as well just guess.


----------



## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> There may be no proof but it is a reasonable surmise, on the basis of what is known. Actual proof would be extremely difficult to obtain so an estimate of probability has to do instead.



Not as simple as that though is it. Wearing a mask changes behaviour, it makes people feel safe so they get closer to other people, it also forces people to keep touching and adjusting the bloody thing so they are contaminating their hands and face. 

It's a reasonable surmise that a mask might stop the spread through your breath but could actually increase the spread through other vectors.
Interesting to note that there was no change in infection rates after masks were made mandatory, nor do they seem to be helping now.


----------



## niemeyjt (22 Dec 2020)

Ditch 08 said:


> I would just be thankful that you are allowed to re-enter the country if I was you and stop complaining. Boris is dammed if does & dammed if he doesn't. Would you want to be the person that gets up and say "Sorry no Christmas this year". If you want to blame anyone, decide who/where this all started and blame them. Unfortunately C19 is here, brought in by *travelers* who had it and we now have to combat this together taking the advise from our PM and his team working with him. We will all be able to have our say when its over,
> My final point is that no-one has any idea of what will be the final outcome as we have never in the past had anything like this in the past. Yes we had the Black Death but this took years to get here, Spanish Flu after WW1 took time to spread (and did not infect the whole planet). This one spread out of control very quickly mainly as we can get around by flying etc.
> So far I have lost a brother in-law to it, and my sister and my son are both still suffering the long term effects have had it. Just be thankful still to be here.



The issue is not my re-entry and quarantine on medical grounds.

My complaint that you missed is that others can skip the rules based on social or economic criteria - and until someone explains to me how a wealthy businessman, for example, is immune and no risk I condemn Boris for applying the rules in a discriminatory manner. The virus is indiscriminate.


----------



## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> I have to say I'm perplexed by the comparisons of death rates in previous years to try and figure out the effect of the virus. Surely that's next to impossible even to estimate?
> 
> We've got more people so death rates should go up, but people live longer so they come down, then there's a more diverse ethnic mix, changes in poverty levels, all the less-common causes of death that might peak and trough in a given year.
> 
> Sounds like you might as well just guess.



It's very difficult and made even more complex by the fact that every year we get better at keeping old, vulnerable people alive. Be this through medical treatments or vaccines for flu and other illnesses. Historically over the last 5 years we have had very little winter sickness and consequently we have built up a large stock of old and vulnerable people who in previous years would have long since succumbed to something nasty. Thus when we get a new virus strike (sometimes that is just a new strain of flu) there are a lot of people who are going to die from it. This is why the average age of a C19 death is 83. The longer we live, the more of these kinds of pandemics we will see.


----------



## Jacob (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> It's very difficult and made even more complex by the fact that every year we get better at keeping old, vulnerable people alive. Be this through medical treatments or vaccines for flu and other illnesses. Historically over the last 5 years we have had very little winter sickness and consequently we have built up a large stock of old and vulnerable people who in previous years would have long since succumbed to something nasty. Thus when we get a new virus strike (sometimes that is just a new strain of flu) there are a lot of people who are going to die from it. This is why the average age of a C19 death is 83. The longer we live, the more of these kinds of pandemics we will see.


Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.


----------



## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
> Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.



What I said is perfectly true, as is what you said. Nowhere in my post did I say that young people never die, I was talking specifically about illnesses that affect the old.


----------



## Nigel Burden (22 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Not true. Previous pandemics have largely affected the young — the polio outbreaks of the 1950s mainly hit children under five; the devastating 1918-19 flu killed millions of young adults.
> Luckily every year we get better at keeping young, vulnerable people alive too.



I had Polio in 1956 three weeks after starting school aged five. I was one of the lucky ones, only suffering temporary paralysis and making a full recovery. At the same time in the next ward there was a boy from the next village who had contracted Typhoid.

Nigel.


----------



## Jake (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> I am afraid there is no proof they reduce the spread. If you would like to link to any peer reviewed studies that show otherwise please do.



It is very difficult to run controlled studies (if that is what you mean) on masking effectively, as the groups have to be huge. There is a lot of other evidence - summarised here:

Report on Face Masks for the General Public - An Update | Royal Society DELVE Initiative (rs-delve.github.io) 

As you are dead against lockdown as well, you may find the chart below of some interest (it's from a paper which modelled mandatory masking and found that with 90% adoption/compliance the effect would be greater than lockdown).


----------



## Tom K (22 Dec 2020)

The wearing of masks is not effective on it's own when you look at the way they are worn by the public they are largely pointless. There are even doubts that they are effective in operating theatres. Unmasking the surgeons: the evidence base behind the use of facemasks in surgery


----------



## Rorschach (22 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> It is very difficult to run controlled studies (if that is what you mean) on masking effectively



So no actual evidence to back up your claim then?


----------



## niemeyjt (22 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> The wearing of masks is not effective on it's own when you look at the way they are worn by the public they are largely pointless. There are even doubts that they are effective in operating theatres. Unmasking the surgeons: the evidence base behind the use of facemasks in surgery



I see those with their noses hanging out of the top of the masks. That's gonna work well - given one of the places they test for the virus is up your nose!


----------



## Jameshow (22 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> In those ONS pages linked by Jacob it states top cause of death in September 2020 to be Alzheimer's and Dementia with Covid oddly as the 19th highest cause of death. Those comparing this pandemic to real disasters like Spanish Flu or the Black Death are way off the mark, it has been calculated that pro rata per population the Spanish Flu would by this stage in our "Pandemic" have killed about 120m and has been recorded the Black Death literally decimated the population of Europe. You will never succeed in running away from this virus it will run it's course and be gone, this pandemic will be recorded as a bizarre act of mass hysteria in years to come. Yes it is real, yes it can be a nasty thing and even kill you if your immune system is lacking but it is not a serious enough disease to shut down the world and destroy the economy for!











Covid-19: UK sees over 80,000 excess deaths during pandemic


The UK is continuing to see more deaths than expected for this time of year, ONS data shows.



www.bbc.co.uk





The excess deaths are approx 80000 so far since march. That's with the two lockdowns and tiers. 

How much will it be before the vaccine takes effect 160000??? 

How much would it have been without lockdowns and tiers? 1million? 

Makes you think... 

Cheers James


----------



## Jake (22 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> So no actual evidence to back up your claim then?



Read the Royal Society paper I posted - heaps of evidence. Science is not purely about controlled trials.


----------



## Jameshow (22 Dec 2020)

Stupid thing about masks is that there might not have been much evidence in the first lockdown but the there's was no downside so it would have been an easy public health win! 

I wonder if they were scared that there would not have been enough for hospitals. 

Hindsight is always 2020!!! 

Cheers James


----------



## jcassidy (22 Dec 2020)

First rule is do no harm. People don't wear masks by default. Not advising people to wear masks changes nothing, as does advising people to not wear masks. No change from default.

Advising people to wears marks, and it causes 0.01% increase in infection, is bad. 
Advising people to wear masks and it causes a 0.01% reduction in infection, is good.

So no masks until the data demonstrates a beneficial effect, however slight. Data takes time to gather, analyse, and review. It's as simple as that.


----------



## Tom K (22 Dec 2020)

Jameshow said:


> Covid-19: UK sees over 80,000 excess deaths during pandemic
> 
> 
> The UK is continuing to see more deaths than expected for this time of year, ONS data shows.
> ...


No without lockdown and tiers the number would be the same and the big flaw is adding the words covid 19 to a death certificate is a back covering exercise, it will never be checked and cause of death is usually only a best guess in most cases.


----------



## Jake (22 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> No without lockdown and tiers the number would be the same and the big flaw is adding the words covid 19 to a death certificate is a back covering exercise, it will never be checked and cause of death is usually only a best guess in most cases.



OK so its Tom K's word versus an overwhelming consensus of the medical profession, scientists, statisticians, governmental agencies, and an actual excess death toll which will be higher than any year since Spanish Flu (during which we did not lockdown and our medical resources for treatment were incomparably more crude).


----------



## jcassidy (22 Dec 2020)

Now you're being absurd.


Tom K said:


> No without lockdown and tiers the number would be the same and the big flaw is adding the words covid 19 to a death certificate is a back covering exercise, it will never be checked and cause of death is usually only a best guess in most cases.


----------



## Tom K (23 Dec 2020)

No, it's my view and that of a huge swathe of scientists, members of the medical profession and simple observation. Where are the bodies, where are the sick people? Not on Telegraph Hill are they!


Jake said:


> OK so its Tom K's word versus an overwhelming consensus of the medical profession, scientists, statisticians, governmental agencies, and an actual excess death toll which will be higher than any year since Spanish Flu (during which we did not lockdown and our medical resources for treatment were incomparably more crude).


----------



## Tom K (23 Dec 2020)

jcassidy said:


> Now you're being absurd.


No just not blinkered or willing to blindly follow when the facts don't add up.


----------



## Trainee neophyte (23 Dec 2020)

For those of us who sport our tin foil hats with aplomb:









Johns Hopkins newspaper removes study examining COVID death rate


Johns Hopkins University’s student newspaper staff retracted an article featuring a university study claiming that COVID-19 did not significantly increase the U.S. death rate.




campusreform.org







> Johns Hopkins University’s student newspaper, the _News-Letter_, reported on a university presentation stating that COVID-19 “had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people” and that the virus “has also not increased the total number of deaths” in comparison to historical data. However, the paper later removed the article, stating that it had been used to support “dangerous inaccuracies” on social media.



In other words, Covidiots were using _facts_, which is never a good thing. The presentation is in the link above - it's it's a YouTube slideshow, but I don't have time for that, so haven't watched it all. Obviously this is seriously dangerous misinformation, but you might be interested to see what information is not allowed to be published by an internal newspaper from one of the world's leading teaching hospitals.


----------



## Dave Moore (23 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> The way I see this whole lockdown / Covid tier system is....here goes...It's a massive power grab. A power grab with addition of public funds, those funds (tax payers money, yours and mine) have been shifted from public hands into private. 12 Billion GBP to Serco for example. The virus is real, it kills people, but so does every other disease on the planet. We all die. Our freedoms has been eroded right before our eyes and right under our noses.
> 
> My view (which I suspect is wholly opposite to 90% of the views on here) may sound outrageous to you but it's always healthy to consider an opposing opinion before immediately discounting it because it's the polar opposite to "mine". If allowed to carry on there will be no economy left. The talk of Universal Income is horrifying. People should be able to earn their own money, run their own businesses & all without a heavy handed State ordering people around. This is meant to a Democracy we live in!
> 
> ...


There’s an easy way of anyone riding themselves of many of today’s diseases just by studying and implementing Ketogenic diet(originally devised for epilepsy before big pharma found ways of making money) or and fasting(look at Dr Jason Fung) for getting rid of inflammation and poor health. Also look at breathing through your nose at all times(Patrick McKeown Buteyko and Oxygen Advantage). Simple and free with no drugs required.
Regards, Dave


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Trainee neophyte said:


> For those of us who sport our tin foil hats with aplomb:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Are you saying that this is true? "....COVID-19 “had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people” and that the virus “has also not increased the total number of deaths” in comparison to historical data."


----------



## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Are you saying that this is true? "....COVID-19 “had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people” and that the virus “has also not increased the total number of deaths” in comparison to historical data."



We'll find out in a few years time. I (and a large number of trained medical professionals if you listen to news that isn't part of the MSM) are of the view that 2019/20 will not show a large increase in overall rate when compared to other years and whatever increase there is will be comparable to one of the regular "flu years".

Really what is happening is that almost invariably very old people are dying, either old people dying a few weeks/months sooner than we might have expected or dying later than they "should have" (harvesting effect). So once we have had a couple of years of low mortality (almost certain to happen) to rebalance things the numbers will pan out.
Sadly though those numbers will be skewed by excess deaths in the younger age brackets from things totally unrelated to C19 the disease but related to the C19 response. As I have mentioned before I have a family member who is going to die from cancer several years sooner than they would have due to the C19 response.


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> We'll find out in a few years time. I (and a large number of trained medical professionals if you listen to news that isn't part of the MSM) are of the view that 2019/20 will not show a large increase in overall rate when compared to other years and whatever increase there is will be comparable to one of the regular "flu years".


So there's nothing going in at all at the moment?


----------



## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> So there's nothing going in at all at the moment?



I don't understand the question.


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> I don't understand the question.


Just "one of the regular "flu years".?


----------



## Suffolkboy (23 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> No, it's my view and that of a huge swathe of scientists, members of the medical profession and simple observation. Where are the bodies, where are the sick people? Not on Telegraph Hill are they!



I should think the bodies were either cremated or buried. 

The sick people will most likely be in hospital. Or self isolating. 

Would you prefer the government dropped off the dead at your house so you can count them? Your wheelie bin is going to fill up pretty quick. 

What's your supply of Kleenex like? Got a big front room and a spare sofa? The NHS could send everyone round to your house if you like then you could keep your own tally.

Maybe you have a point though... In fact... All these people that died from old age since the dawn of time. Where are their bodies? Maybe you've hit on an international conspiracy funded by hospitals and undertakers keeping us oppressed by making us believe we can get ill and die when actually we are immortal beings! Think of the profits they must be making. I bet this is linked to the illuminati and the lizard people.

Next they'll be telling us the earth is actually a globe orbited by the sun!


----------



## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Just "one of the regular "flu years".?



Yep, they come along at least once a decade, usually twice. Here is an article about the 2017/18 winter, 50k excess winter deaths, do you remember a lock down, mask wearing, hysteria etc? Remember as well that was 50k WITH a vaccine, though as the article states that winter the vaccine was not a very good one but undoubtedly it had some effect at bringing the numbers down. Also the 50k only covers Dec-March.



https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/urgent-care/flu-and-cold-weather-contributed-towards-50000-excess-winter-deaths-last-year/


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Current covid deaths UK approach 70k on a rising graph and winter not over yet. Thats in addition to any seasonal flu effects


----------



## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Current covid deaths UK approach 70k on a rising graph and winter not over yet. That's in addition to any seasonal flu effects



Flu, this year? Doesn't exist according to the media! lol.
You are adding together 2 winter seasons remember, the first "wave" was in winter 19/20, we are now in winter 20/21.
You will note I never denied higher deaths this year, it's going to be an outlier of course, I just don't think it worthy of the response the government has had and in the long term the "cure" is most certainly worse than the disease. If you are retired and on a secure income then the "cure" doesn't affect you, try and put yourself in the shoes of someone in their 20's who is looking in a failed business and is looking at 20 years of hardship and a shorter lifespan because of this and then remember again, average age of death from C19 is 83............

All the people "saved" by this governments response won't be alive to vote for them in the next general election they are so old.


----------



## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Why don't you drop a line to the various science institutions, epidemiologists and other experts and tell them you've seen a flaw in their arguments? If you are right you could save the world from a lot of bother!



'Science' is making trillions from this pandemic.
There is no patent available on Vit C, D and Zinc. therefore little money for science to earn from it.
The BAME community is suffering more from this disease than those without 'tinted' skin colour. This prevents them from producing Vit D naturally from sunlight as effectively as the none coloured population.
There is plenty of evidence to show that Vit D is essential to optimise the immune system.

The NHS prescribes Vit D and Folic acid (B9) to my flat bound 93 year old mother with Alzheimers.
Prescribing vitamin supplements would never have happened 20 years ago.

Dr Mercola has been advocating good food, good sleep and exercise for decades, yet he is vilified by the 'scientific' (well the big money side of it)
community, because he challenges their behaviour.

*More people die in the US from prescription Opioid pain killers, than from street drugs. *

Without those like Dr Mercola, the gravy train would be left to run.
Big Pharma spends billions 'lobbying' governments and medical professionals.
'Our pain killers are non addictive'

People tend to think that the scientific medical community only act to serve the good of mankind.
They also like to make a lot of money.


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> 'Science' is making trillions from this pandemic.
> There is no patent available on Vit C, D and Zinc. therefore little money for science to earn from it.
> The BAME community is suffering more from this disease than those without 'tinted' skin colour. This prevents them from producing Vit D naturally from sunlight as effectively as the none coloured population.
> There is plenty of evidence to show that Vit D is essential to optimise the immune system.
> ...


Never heard of Dr Mercola but I don't anybody would argue against "good food, good sleep and exercise" being good for you!
PS Looked him up. He's a quack and makes millions Dr. Joseph Mercola Ordered to Stop Illegal Claims | Quackwatch


----------



## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> The NHS prescribes Vit D and Folic acid (B9) to my flat bound 93 year old mother with Alzheimers.
> Prescribing vitamin supplements would never have happened 20 years ago.



My mum's been on vitamin D tablets from her GP for well over 20 years, she questions it occasionally but the verdict is they're good for you.


----------



## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Dr Mercola has been advocating good food, good sleep and exercise for decades, yet he is vilified by the 'scientific' (well the big money side of it)
> community, because he challenges their behaviour.



I don't think you need a Doctorate to figure that diet, sleep, and exercise are quite important components of a healthy lifestyle. The guy seems to have tapped into the huge gullible and conspiracy laden society in the States and is raking it in. Can't blame him to be honest. Fools and their money....


----------



## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> PS Looked him up. He's a quack and makes millions



As I mentioned in my post.

How do you view those manufacturing and prescribing Opioid pain killers, making millions and killing thousands ?









US sues Walmart for alleged role in opioid crisis


In a lawsuit, the US government says the major retailer "knowingly" violated prescription rules.



www.bbc.co.uk





They are not 'quacks' because they shield under the 'medical science' umbrella.

Strangely these are the very people who wish to tarnish Dr Mercola, I wonder why.
The internet is littered with falsehoods, it's your choice whether you follow the path you are fed by government and mainstream capitalism or look beyond it and make up your own mind.

Of course it is easier to believe what you are spoon fed.

The Opioiod story is currently fashionable in the media, (the problem is also rife in the UK).
Though Dr Mercola was presenting the evidence years ago.

It's your choice, though if your research starts and ends on the first Google hit then your opinions are not well researched in my view.


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> As I mentioned in my post.
> 
> How do you view those manufacturing and prescribing Opioid pain killers, making millions and killing thousands ?
> 
> ...


I agree it's appalling. That's the (relatively) unregulated free market for you. Probably safer to go straight to your neighbourhood drug dealer!


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> and a large number of trained medical professionals if you listen to news that isn't part of the MSM)



Evidence for that? Or do you mean the Lockdown Sceptics/Great Barrington Few?


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Flu, this year? Doesn't exist according to the media! lol.



It is much reduced so far because anti-COVID measures are effective against flu as well. Just as well as getting the two together is not good news (even for the under 80s who appear to count for something in your mind).



> You are adding together 2 winter seasons remember, the first "wave" was in winter 19/20, we are now in winter 20/21.



That is a constant for any statistic measured by calendar year, like excess deaths per calendar year.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

PS the average person who dies in ICU from COVID loses 10 years of life expectancy.


----------



## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> I don't think you need a Doctorate to figure that diet, sleep, and exercise are quite important components of a healthy lifestyle



Indeed, though those marketing junk food will argue that there is no harm in it.

Sunny Delight anyone ?





__





BBC NEWS | Business | The rise and fall of Sunny Delight






news.bbc.co.uk







> Launched in 1998 with a £10 million promotional campaign, within months Sunny Delight had become the biggest selling soft drink in the UK behind Coke and Pepsi, with sales of £160 million a year.



So who are the quacks ?

Procter and Gamble or Dr Mercola.

It's your choice, make up your own mind, but look beyond the £££££££££.


----------



## Notters (23 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> The way I see this whole lockdown / Covid tier system is....here goes...It's a massive power grab. A power grab with addition of public funds, those funds (tax payers money, yours and mine) have been shifted from public hands into private. 12 Billion GBP to Serco for example. The virus is real, it kills people, but so does every other disease on the planet. We all die. Our freedoms has been eroded right before our eyes and right under our noses.
> 
> My view (which I suspect is wholly opposite to 90% of the views on here) may sound outrageous to you but it's always healthy to consider an opposing opinion before immediately discounting it because it's the polar opposite to "mine". If allowed to carry on there will be no economy left. The talk of Universal Income is horrifying. People should be able to earn their own money, run their own businesses & all without a heavy handed State ordering people around. This is meant to a Democracy we live in!
> 
> ...


----------



## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> 'Science' is making trillions from this pandemic.
> There is no patent available on Vit C, D and Zinc. therefore little money for science to earn from it.
> The BAME community is suffering more from this disease than those without 'tinted' skin colour. This prevents them from producing Vit D naturally from sunlight as effectively as the none coloured population.
> There is plenty of evidence to show that Vit D is essential to optimise the immune system.
> ...


JD Rockerfella and his taking over the medical institutes mid 1900's is to blame for what's bad about big pharma and the total elimination of 1000s of years of herbal medicine. I'm not saying the profession is all bad. There's been a massive over reliance on antibiotics, tablets in general in the West and vaccines, well that's another stifled debate. In 2016 the WHO changed the definition of a vaccine. This C19 vaccine is nothing resembling what the pre 2016 definition was. It is a RNA therapeutic that's no more adept at controlling the spread of the virus than Uri Gueller. It only controls symptoms, that's is it, but if you look at the listed side effects of the vaccine they are the exact same as the virus itself! What a con job if ever there was one and GOD knows the long term effects. I'm beginning to wonder if the vaccine was responsible for all the 10s of 1000s of the registered dead being able to rise up and vote in America? If you speak out against the MSM narrative you are a conspiracy theorist. I've been called a murderer by a women at my chemist for not wearing a mask, I'm exempt by the way. People are being deceived and divided in Europe and America for reasons too scary to think about. All I know is that the men in this country are weak and spineless and letting all fabric of society be destroyed with barely a whimper. Follow the science my a#$e


----------



## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> That's the (relatively) unregulated free market for you.



Yes it would never happen in the UK with our NHS.



> Doctors issued nearly 71 million prescriptions for antidepressants - a 97% increase compared to 2008. Opiates were up to 40.5 million - 22% more when compared to a decade earlier. And more than 500,000 more sleeping tablets were doled out, a 10% increase


----------



## Tom K (23 Dec 2020)

Suffolkboy said:


> I should think the bodies were either cremated or buried.
> 
> The sick people will most likely be in hospital. Or self isolating.
> 
> ...


Sorry mate it's obviously a bit above your pay grade. 
As stated I live in the S.E that has a population density that many on here would find incomprehensible. 
The actual neighbourhood I live in has a large elderly population and there is a large cemetery with crematorium. You can judge how bad the flu season or cold snap has been by the number of ambulances and hearses in the area and I have seen far worse. 
I speak to people all day long and have been at work throughout, not meeting anyone who has it or that knows anyone that's had it. 
Grand daughter number two has missed months of school though and since the schools reopened been sent home to isolate three times because someone in her year or tutor group or class has tested positive oddly no actual sick people. 
Grand daughter number one lives with us she works in a dementia care home some of the residents get ill some get tested as positive for C19 they go to hospital and get sent back guess what the home still has lots of residents even the old and infirm don't all die of it.


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## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Indeed, though those marketing junk food will argue that there is no harm in it.
> 
> Sunny Delight anyone ?
> 
> ...



Talking of junk food, what does this cause OH the Obesity crisis (and dozens of other problems) which is one of the fastest ways to increase your chance of death from Covid.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> If you speak out against the MSM narrative you are a conspiracy theorist.



I think that may depend in large part on what you say and how you say it and how logical and evidenced it is.


----------



## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Talking of junk food, what does this cause OH the Obesity crisis (and dozens of other problems) which is one of the fastest ways to increase your chance of death from Covid.



Well people have a choice in what they eat, nobody's pretending junk food is good for you. Families on lower incomes tend to eat cheaper foods, namely processed mush and the bits of an animal that wouldn't look good on their own. 

Factor in laziness, people being time-pressured, or spending their money on other stuff whether that be heating bills or cigarettes, all contribute towards problems with diet.

Maybe the good doctor can sell anti-obesity herbs?


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## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> I think that may depend in large part on what you say and how you say it and how logical and evidenced it is.



Arguing against conspiracy theorists is self-defeating. If you don't believe them you just become part of the problem they're fighting against so they'll believe you even less and become more paranoid themselves.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> This C19 vaccine is nothing resembling what the pre 2016 definition was. It is a RNA therapeutic that's no more adept at controlling the spread of the virus than Uri Gueller. It only controls symptoms, that's is it



Where do you get this garbage? Youtube? Facebook?


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## Artiglio (23 Dec 2020)

Like the US the UK has a high proportion of people who are one or more of the following, fat, unfit, poor diet. Add on the conditions that often come with being fat, infit, poor diet and you have someone who is going to be likely to suffer badly if they catch covid. Ask any of the frontline nhs staff you know what their patients have most in common when treating for covid , it’ll be excess weight. This is often omitted in the media / reports instead referring to underlying conditions diabetes, heart disease, respiratory issues, which often arise in those with excess weight.
The UK is reaping the crop it has sown by not dealing with excess weight and by political correctness / any weight is a healthy weight/ fat shaming making the issues something that can’t be discussed.
Yes there are the young and fit that have passed away through covid but they are the statistical outliers and should not be drawn into the debate.
For the UK covid is only half the problem, it would be nice to think that Covid will spark debate and action, but the “fat vote” now numbers so many that politicians are more likely to ignore the issue.
My local NHS trust is offering weight watcher vouchers to its larger staff.


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## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Artiglio said:


> My local NHS trust is offering weight watcher vouchers to its larger staff.



Isn;t that going to be shot down as fat shaming?


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## Flartybarty (23 Dec 2020)

I have rarely read such drivel. You might change your attitude if you were in ICU about to peg it. I am aware that 'flu also kills people but the difference is in the time it takes to develop symptoms and I have so far not heard of the hospitals being overwhelmed with 'flu patients. Furthermore, we have vaccines against 'flu which we have only just developed to deal with Covid.

The main thing about the present pandemic is the total incompetentce of the givernment and we have just the man in charge at the moment (how did any sane person vole for Bojo) to deal with it. The vaccine, if it is effective, will reduce the infection but will not eradicate it, especially since many people don't want to be inoculated. Bubonic Plague is still with us and still kills people - thankfully not in Europe. But the same will happen with Covid-19 - it promises to always be here , changing slightly every year.

The rest of your article is academic nonsense. governments are not in the business of using pandemics to create autocracies - especially since we've had one for decades.


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## NickVanBeest (23 Dec 2020)

Chaps, keep it civil please... attack ideas, not people


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## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> Well people have a choice in what they eat, nobody's pretending junk food is good for you



Was Sunny delight promoted and advertised as junk food ?

You might think government and the health service would point out how bad it is for you.

Smoking used to be presented as non health threatening, big tobacco spent millions on promoting it and lobbying government....

Maybe when our population is as obese as in the US, government might intervene.

Though government is torn between an economy that makes money and the health of the population, as in the current pandemic.

So I'll stick to Dr Mercola to present the other side of the story and make my own mind up.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> You can judge how bad the flu season or cold snap has been by the number of ambulances and hearses in the area and I have seen far worse



In order to take the anecdotal evidence of Tom K as to his subjective assessment of the volume of traffic in and out of his local crematorium as persuasive evidence that the numbers produced by the Office for National Statistics are wrong, we have to assume that the whole Death Certificate/Death Register system is either suffering a one-off chronic accidental malfunction coincidentally in time with a pandemic (starting with thousands of doctors), or that an immense number of public servants are in on a mass conspiracy to lie about deaths caused by COVID for unexplained reasons and with very tight operational security and no defectors. 

Alternatively, Tom K's subjective assessment as to the volume of traffic in and out of his one crematorium is either a statistical outlier in his corner of Kent or just inaccurate and swayed by his priors.


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## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Flartybarty said:


> I have rarely read such drivel.
> 
> Couldn't agree more!! Try spell check before you post it may make some sense.
> 
> The rest of your article is academic nonsense. governments are not in the business of using pandemics to create autocracies - especially since we've had one for decades.


Amazing statement


----------



## billw (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Was Sunny delight promoted and advertised as junk food ?
> 
> You might think government and the health service would point out how bad it is for you.



The ASA should have dealt with that.

As for the government and health service, well asking them to point out that SD had lots of sugar in would be the same as pointing out that polo mints have a lot of sugar, or that sugar is actually quite sugary when you look at it. Should they have government campaigns?

My annoyance is that people see fat as a bad component in a diet, when really it's the glut of refined carbs that we eat that are a bigger problem - you know, the ones that erm...convert into fat. Eating fat is fine as long as calories in is less or equal to calories burned on average. Yes the same applies to refined carbs, but people don't see carbs as the problem because nobody goes round saying "oh wow look how carb that man is!"


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## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> Check out the WHO and do some proper research.


Please explain your understanding of how the mRNA vaccines work.

I am genuinely curious as to where you are getting your information from - it is incredible.


----------



## Artiglio (23 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> Isn;t that going to be shot down as fat shaming?


Depends if the politically correct brigade decides to get involved, sensibly speaking the nhs is more than aware of the negative consequences of excess weight, they are only offering the vouchers there is no compulsion , so bopefully it’ll be seen as offering a helping hand to those that want it. 
When i had my nhs checkup at 50 it was more than i could do not to laugh when i. Was told by the nurse ( who closely resembled two spacehoppers glued together) that it would be beneficial if i lost 2-3kg. (To bring my BMI under 25). Otherwise they’d advise i took statins. ( at the time i was a commercial diver and of above fitness for my age). Tick box culture at its best, but i lost the weight and went back 3 weeks later to be reweighed and have the records amended, by another obese nurse.
My local hospital had a nurse die from covid, in the papers reported as the tragic death of a dedicated 35 year old mother of 3 with no underlying health conditions the story had her picture ( which was certainly not one of a 35 year old) but ask her colleagues and she was a lovely lady rather larger than a small house. So many people having their lives curtailed or future health further hampered by long covid purely as a result of excess weight is a massive failure of societies attitude and our health policies.


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## Phil Pascoe (23 Dec 2020)

I had the same years ago. I was 14st, fighting fit, not carrying much fat when I saw a specialist who told me I shouldn't be 11st and sent me to a dietician. To her credit she said there was no way on this earth was I meant to be under 11st and to aim for 13st. She wasn't an inspiration, though, she was about 13st and 5'.


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## artie (23 Dec 2020)

Just chipping in to congratulate my self for saying nothing.


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## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> Please explain your understanding of how the mRNA vaccines work.
> 
> I am genuinely curious as to where you are getting your information from - it is incredible.


OK
The mRNA vaccine does not use the virus it uses a protein fragment in form of an mRNA trigger that is supposedly associated with a surface protein of the caronavirus.
WHO 2016 Efficacy of a vaccine paper I quote
" Vaccine Efficacy is most commonly a measure of the proportionate reduction in disease attack rate (AR) between the control rate of those who did not receive the vaccination of the infectious disease under study (ARU) and the vaccinated (ARV) group(s). Vaccine efficacy can be calculate BT the relative risk (RR) of the disease among the vaccinated group as (ARU-ARV/ARU) *100 and (1-RR)*100. This estimate may be referred to as absolute vaccine efficacy.

www.who.int./biologicals/experts_committee/clinical_changes_ik_final.PDF

"Our trial will not demonstrate prevention of transmission", Zak said, "because in order to do that would require to swab people twice a week for very long periods and that becomes operationally untenable".

Tal Zak's, chief operations officer at Modern. www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4037

Quite clear to me


----------



## Yorkieguy (23 Dec 2020)

A side effect of this thread is that the law of unintended consequences has come into play to keep us all safe and out of harm's way - I guess it could be termed 'care in the community'. While we're sat pecking away at the keyboard & squinting at the monitor, we're not exposed to C-19. No need to wear a mask, we're full socially-distanced and it's warm and dry. Don't even need to wear my Trend air-shield helmet - not making any shavings or dust. A sort of self-induced 'lockdown' by default. 

Tier 4? Bring it on - we must already be on Tier 10! Chris Witty would be enthralled - 'Next Slide Please'...


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## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

When this c19 came about it scared me to death. I got an infection in my leg that turned into a fever and I thought I was dying. If I could of seen a Dr I wouldn't of become so Ill as antibiotics would of cleared it up. That's an unintended consequence of the virus and response. I'm lucky but god knows how many others were in a similar position who were not so lucky.


----------



## Ditch 08 (23 Dec 2020)

MCTWoodwork said:


> The way I see this whole lockdown / Covid tier system is....here goes...It's a massive power grab. A power grab with addition of public funds, those funds (tax payers money, yours and mine) have been shifted from public hands into private. 12 Billion GBP to Serco for example. The virus is real, it kills people, but so does every other disease on the planet. We all die. Our freedoms has been eroded right before our eyes and right under our noses.
> 
> My view (which I suspect is wholly opposite to 90% of the views on here) may sound outrageous to you but it's always healthy to consider an opposing opinion before immediately discounting it because it's the polar opposite to "mine". If allowed to carry on there will be no economy left. The talk of Universal Income is horrifying. People should be able to earn their own money, run their own businesses & all without a heavy handed State ordering people around. This is meant to a Democracy we live in!
> 
> ...


It is good that we are able to discus this little/big issue. Boris is dammed if he does and dammed if he doesn't. In an ideal situation we would be given guide lines and they would trust us to take responsibility for our own actions. But unfortunately there are those who don't, and they f#*k it up for all of us. I have not seen my grand children since last Easter and now don't know when I can. Then you have those who set the rules that don't follow them, Sturgeon was at a party with no mask, she will not resign unlike those she made to. At least BJ follows his rules.

At the end of the day, there is something killing people and we each need to take responsibility for ourselves and if you survive then you are the luckly one.

Merry Christmas everyone and those that survive hear from you next year.

P.S. the earth is not flat.


----------



## paulrbarnard (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> Really what is happening is that almost invariably very old people are dying, either old people dying a few weeks/months sooner than we might have expected or dying later than they "should have" (harvesting effect).



Oh that's alright then. My mother died on the 13th, she was 79 so not VERY old. Just another statistic.

And for those not aware of increased death rates, the local crematorium is backed up until mid January and all slots are being used.


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## Phil Pascoe (23 Dec 2020)

all the slots are being used .................. unfortunate choice of wording, there.


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## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

billw said:


> As for the government and health service, well asking them to point out that SD had lots of sugar in would be the same as pointing out that polo mints have a lot of sugar, or that sugar is actually quite sugary when you look at it. Should they have government campaigns?



They did, in the form of the sugar tax, which has pushed manufacturers to reduce sugar content.








Soft drink sugar tax starts, but will it work?


Half of manufacturers cut sugar content, with ministers calling it a good start in fight against obesity.



www.bbc.co.uk








billw said:


> My annoyance is that people see fat as a bad component in a diet, when really it's the glut of refined carbs that we eat that are a bigger problem - you know, the ones that erm...convert into fat.



Carbs are actually converted into sugars.



> The body breaks down or converts most *carbohydrates* into the *sugar glucose*. *Glucose* is absorbed into the bloodstream, and with the help of a hormone called insulin it travels into the cells of the body where it can be used for energy.


Or in excess converted to fat . Though years of excess insulin production leads to Diabetes.
Which brings us back to another source of increased risk of Covid death.



> The World Health Organization (WHO) also estimated the global prevalence of diabetes in 2000 and 2030–171 million people with diabetes in 2000 and 366 million by 2030



For decades we have been led to believe that carbs are good and that Cholesterol is the evil enemy.
How many know that 70% of the Cholesterol in your body is actually manufactured by your own liver ?
Why would your body manufacture a 'poison'?

It was this particular subject that started me reading Dr Mercola over 10 years ago.
Because my renal consultants prescribed me an overdose of Statins after I developed Membranous Glomerulonephritis. 
Dr Mercola's introduction into the Cholesterol/Statin pathways led to more research finally leading me to a paper from the NHS saying that taking Ciclosporin amplifies the effect of Statins 10 fold !!. I was taking both.
To find that paper was the result of several days research.
Though as some have shown earlier the first hit on Google for Dr Mercola denounces him as a quack.
I suspect these people would also accept the words of a renal consultant as gospel.

Interesting that these pharmaceutical companies earning trillions are more interested in denouncing Dr Mercola to protect their profits, than they are making health care professionals aware of dangers from their products.

Anyone wishing to know the effects of too little Cholesterol in the body ? Research is free though time consuming.


----------



## Woody2Shoes (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> JD Rockerfella and his taking over the medical institutes mid 1900's is to blame for what's bad about big pharma and the total elimination of 1000s of years of herbal medicine. I'm not saying the profession is all bad. There's been a massive over reliance on antibiotics, tablets in general in the West and vaccines, well that's another stifled debate. In 2016 the WHO changed the definition of a vaccine. This C19 vaccine is nothing resembling what the pre 2016 definition was. It is a RNA therapeutic that's no more adept at controlling the spread of the virus than Uri Gueller. It only controls symptoms, that's is it, but if you look at the listed side effects of the vaccine they are the exact same as the virus itself! What a con job if ever there was one and GOD knows the long term effects. I'm beginning to wonder if the vaccine was responsible for all the 10s of 1000s of the registered dead being able to rise up and vote in America? If you speak out against the MSM narrative you are a conspiracy theorist. I've been called a murderer by a women at my chemist for not wearing a mask, I'm exempt by the way. People are being deceived and divided in Europe and America for reasons too scary to think about. All I know is that the men in this country are weak and spineless and letting all fabric of society be destroyed with barely a whimper. Follow the science my a#$e


Wibble....


----------



## Woody2Shoes (23 Dec 2020)

Artiglio said:


> Depends if the politically correct brigade decides to get involved, sensibly speaking the nhs is more than aware of the negative consequences of excess weight, they are only offering the vouchers there is no compulsion , so bopefully it’ll be seen as offering a helping hand to those that want it.
> When i had my nhs checkup at 50 it was more than i could do not to laugh when i. Was told by the nurse ( who closely resembled two spacehoppers glued together) that it would be beneficial if i lost 2-3kg. (To bring my BMI under 25). Otherwise they’d advise i took statins. ( at the time i was a commercial diver and of above fitness for my age). Tick box culture at its best, but i lost the weight and went back 3 weeks later to be reweighed and have the records amended, by another obese nurse.
> My local hospital had a nurse die from covid, in the papers reported as the tragic death of a dedicated 35 year old mother of 3 with no underlying health conditions the story had her picture ( which was certainly not one of a 35 year old) but ask her colleagues and she was a lovely lady rather larger than a small house. So many people having their lives curtailed or future health further hampered by long covid purely as a result of excess weight is a massive failure of societies attitude and our health policies.


Spacehoppers glued together!! - my wife's wondering why I've just spluttered my coffee across the table....


----------



## paulrbarnard (23 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> all the slots are being used .................. unfortunate choice of wording, there.


It's what the undertaker called them.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> The mRNA vaccine does not use the virus it uses a protein fragment in form of an mRNA trigger that is supposedly associated with a surface protein of the caronavirus.



Kind of. The mRNA is an instruction set, it triggers some of your own cells to produce the C-19 spike protein which the virus uses to bind to another protein enzyme (ACE2) which is on the outside of some human cells.

With real virus, once the spike binds to the ACE2 receptor, a second part of the spike protein alters the cell membrane to alter it so the virus can get into the cell, where the RNA in the core of the virus effectively takes control of the cell to turn it into a factory for making more copies of the virus.

With the vaccine, some cells will execute the mRNA instruction set and make copies of just the spike protein instead of the whole virus (the virus's RNA payload isn't part of the mRNA instruction set at all). The immune system (wondrous marvel of nature) then recognises the spike protein as foreign and generates antibodies which bind to the spike protein (with the antibody stuck on to the spike that neutralises its ability to bind to the ACE2 receptor, so it can no longer get into cells) and also learns to kill cells that are making copies of spike protein (which would later include cells making the whole virus in the event of a real infection).

The Oxford one uses an older technique which is much the same but instead of encapsulating and injecting mRNA directly, it delivers the mRNA as a modified payload in a chimpanzee virus which has been deactivated so it cannot reproduce.



> WHO 2016 Efficacy of a vaccine paper I quote
> " Vaccine Efficacy is most commonly a measure of the proportionate reduction in disease attack rate (AR) between the control rate of those who did not receive the vaccination of the infectious disease under study (ARU) and the vaccinated (ARV) group(s). Vaccine efficacy can be calculate BT the relative risk (RR) of the disease among the vaccinated group as (ARU-ARV/ARU) *100 and (1-RR)*100. This estimate may be referred to as absolute vaccine efficacy.
> 
> www.who.int./biologicals/experts_committee/clinical_changes_ik_final.PDF
> ...



I am not sure what you are getting at here. No vaccine or immunity can stop infection. The efficacy of immunity (whether originally naturally acquired or stimulated by a vaccine) is about whether the infection turns into a disease. The WHO quote is about the disease state. On the other hand, the Moderna COO is talking about whether they are able to prove that the body's immunity can act fast enough in suppressing an infection progressing to a disease state so as to stop the virus from replicating and transmitting during the pre-symptomatic phase of an infection. There is nothing at all inconsistent between those two things.


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## Misterdog (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> The immune system (wondrous marvel of nature)



Nail on the head.

Our immune system is what has protected us for centuries, and allowed us to become the dominant species on this planet.
It is our most effective defence against Covid.

Should we not concentrate more effort into optimising it ?
(Though an argument could be made for saying that is what a vaccine does.) The problem is that creating a new drug can generate billions, whereas testing everyone's Vit C, D levels has no profit. 

We have had a vaccine against the flu since the 1940's yet we have never conquered it.
In 2020 some > 20,000 died in this country from it, though that was under a Labour government so many prefer not to think about it.

People think that because we can land men on the moon and change a 0 into a 1 that science should be able to conquer something as 'simple' as a virus.


----------



## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

paulrbarnard said:


> Oh that's alright then. My mother died on the 13th, she was 79 so not VERY old. Just another statistic.



My condolences.


----------



## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> Kind of. The mRNA is an instruction set, it triggers some of your own cells to produce the C-19 spike protein which the virus uses to bind to another protein enzyme (ACE2) which is on the outside of some human cells.
> 
> With real virus, once the spike binds to the ACE2 receptor, a second part of the spike protein alters the cell membrane to alter it so the virus can get into the cell, where the RNA in the core of the virus effectively takes control of the cell to turn it into a factory for making more copies of the virus.
> 
> ...


The point I was making was the change of vaccine definition in 2016 as per the post you questioned!
The 2 quotes clearly and unequivocally prove the point.
The vaccine for covid 19 is basically a treatment that only reduces symptoms. It does nothing, zip,jingle bells in stopping transmission therefore is not much different to hydroxychloriquine and zinc, remdizivir, vit c,d et all. Only it could be far more dangerous and an absolute fortune to the people.


----------



## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Was Sunny delight promoted and advertised as junk food ?
> 
> You might think government and the health service would point out how bad it is for you.


They have, though apparently it's not banned.


> Smoking used to be presented as non health threatening, big tobacco spent millions on promoting it and lobbying government....


It's now tightly controlled and heavily taxed


> Maybe when our population is as obese as in the US, government might intervene.


It isn't though, but I agree about more intervention


> Though government is torn between an economy that makes money and the health of the population, as in the current pandemic.
> 
> So I'll stick to Dr Mercola to present the other side of the story and make my own mind up.


He doesn't have another side to the story as far as I can see, except flogging quack remedies Dr. Mercola: Visionary or Quack?


----------



## AdrianUK (23 Dec 2020)

S%@£ .... think I’ve entered the wrong forum !


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## Woody2Shoes (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> The point I was making was the change of vaccine definition in 2016 as per the post you questioned!
> The 2 quotes clearly and unequivocally prove the point.
> The vaccine for covid 19 is basically a treatment that only reduces symptoms. It does nothing, zip,jingle bells in stopping transmission therefore is not much different to hydroxychloriquine and zinc, remdizivir, vit c,d et all. Only it could be far more dangerous and an absolute fortune to the people.


Wibble


----------



## Terry - Somerset (23 Dec 2020)

I am unconcerned about the definiton of a vaccine.

If an injection stops me getting ill, it's a win.

If it stops me transmitting the virus as well it is two wins.

Win-win is better than just a win on its own. But I would happily settle for either


----------



## Suffolkboy (23 Dec 2020)

Tom K said:


> Sorry mate it's obviously a bit above your pay grade.
> As stated I live in the S.E that has a population density that many on here would find incomprehensible.
> The actual neighbourhood I live in has a large elderly population and there is a large cemetery with crematorium. You can judge how bad the flu season or cold snap has been by the number of ambulances and hearses in the area and I have seen far worse.
> I speak to people all day long and have been at work throughout, not meeting anyone who has it or that knows anyone that's had it.
> ...



Wait... You live next to a cemetery? Speak to people all day long? Jesus wept man what are you doing wasting your time on here. You should be at number 10 advising the PM!! Good god man! You're just what this country needs to steer us through this pandemic.

The only difficulty is how do we get you to number 10 and still maintain surveillance on this all important cemetery that clearly handles all of the people that die in the whole UK? I know. We'll put a webcam in your front window and pay a team of statisticians to count the comings and goings of the ambulances. My only concern is will their data recording and analysis be up to your clearly extremely rigorous standards? We can't afford to let anything slip through the net.

With you at number 10 who will "speak to people all day long?" I wonder... We could set up a phone in service with 100 call centre operatives poised to receive the vital information that you are currently managing to retain in that enormous brain of yours. I just hope we have a big enough super computer to store and interperate all the information to the standard you have so selflessly managed to maintain up until now.

Fear not world, the great Tom K has the answer to this pandemic and he's on his way to save the day!

Thank the lord for you sir!


----------



## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Terry - Somerset said:


> I am unconcerned about the definiton of a vaccine.
> 
> If an injection stops me getting ill, it's a win.
> 
> ...


1\2 is a win for you then happy days. For me the millions spent on something that's unproven to be safe and doesn't stop transmission is a complete travesty as it does nothing more than widely available cheap medicine that's been around for years, and my children's Grandchildren's grandchildren will still be paying for it.


----------



## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> The vaccine for covid 19 is basically a treatment that only reduces symptoms.



That's just plain 100% wrong, you do not understand the information you have posted.



> It does nothing, zip,jingle bells in stopping transmission



A. You do not know that, and the Moderna COO did not say that. Absence of proof is not absence of effect. He was saying Moderna do not know., as its practically speaking impossible to test that in the context of the safety and efficacy trials. How on earth do you use that as evidence for your absolute statement that it does zip all to stop transmission?

B. The point of a vaccine is to ensure that the body can deal with an infection and avoid disease or at least reduce disease prevalence and/or severity. It is proven to do that. It is also proven safe for people in categories represented in the trials.

C. As for quoting hydroxychloriquine and zinc, OK more evidence of dirty mis/disinformation habits. Well proven that they do nothing, overwhelming evidence of that.

D. Remdesivir is a partial treatment for which there is some but mixed evidence that it may improve severe disease ie ARDS. By that time, the patient is very severely ill and in HDU/ITU, with the aim being to stop death - you do not want to be there in the first place. That is 2-3 weeks later than the pre-symptomatic phase in which the Moderna COO was saying it was unclear whether there would be enough viral replication to enable transmission in the period while the immune response kicks in.

E. I have no idea what point you think are making in relation to the WHO quote.



> Only it could be far more dangerous and an absolute fortune to the people.



Oh dear. There is no evidence it is dangerous, that was the purpose of the trials. It is absolutely fortunate for the people I agree on that.


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## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Misterdog said:


> Our immune system is what has protected us for centuries, and allowed us to become the dominant species on this planet.


 I think in essence it is actually a mammalian thing rather than something humans specifically evolved.




> It is our most effective defence against Covid. Should we not concentrate more effort into optimising it ? (Though an argument could be made for saying that is what a vaccine does.)



I'd put that the other way around, there can be no argument that is exactly what a vaccine does. If it doesn't, it isn't a vaccine.



> The problem is that creating a new drug can generate billions, whereas testing everyone's Vit C, D levels has no profit.



Absent chronically low levels of C or D, extra vitamin intake is not going to help.



> We have had a vaccine against the flu since the 1940's yet we have never conquered it.



Flu is different in the way it is constructed. It can vary itself much more radically, much more easily. Fortunately, its IFR is a tenth of that of COVID.

There are multiple diseases of the more stable type we have eradicated or more or less eliminated through vaccination.


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## Yorkieguy (23 Dec 2020)

That there would be a global pandemic and the next war would be fought not against missiles but against microbes was both predictable and predicted with uncanny foresight in 2015 by Bill Gates who - via his Foundation has donate huge amounts of his considerable fortune to research into debilitation diseases. Well worth listening to his 8 minute 2015 'TED' Talk:

The next outbreak? We're not ready


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## jcassidy (23 Dec 2020)

Let's just examine what contributors to this thread are calling normal;

1. Queues of ambulances in hospital car parks where people are being treated, because the hospitals are full.

2. Accepting that this disease will 'harvest' older people, and this is ok. (Can we have a poll of the elderly please to see if they accept dying so that some people can go to the pub freely?)

3. Governments ALL OVER THE WORLD shutting down economies and then spending gazzillions supporting a shut down economy. 

And now for the craziest things of all (drumroll please!)
...
...
4. The DUP-led Northern Irish Executive accepting help from the despised Papal Free Staters - paramedics from the Republic have been sent into Northern Ireland to help out, on the condition that;

5. The DUP-led Northern Irish Executive agreeing to help the despised Papal Free Staters - sending paramedics from teh North to the the Republic.

Sorry folks, these are not normal events!


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## Jacob (23 Dec 2020)

jcassidy said:


> Let's just examine what contributors to this thread are calling normal;
> 
> 1. Queues of ambulances in hospital car parks where people are being treated, because the hospitals are full.
> 
> ...


Yep.
If sacrifices must be made I think it should be the young. They spend the first 30 years of their lives farting about uselessly, not contributing and being a burden on society. They then reproduce like rabbits, main agents of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change.
Whereas we elderly have paid our way, don't (can't) eat and drink a lot, have the wisdom of age to impart and will not reproduce (however hard we try), will discretely shuffle off this mortal coil in short order, without causing any more bother,


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## Suffolkboy (23 Dec 2020)

Jacob said:


> Yep.
> If sacrifices must be made I think it should be the young. They spend the first 30 years of their lives farting about uselessly, not contributing and being a burden on society. They then reproduce like rabbits, main agents of overpopulation, environmental destruction and climate change.
> Whereas we elderly have paid our way, don't (can't) eat and drink a lot, have the wisdom of age to impart and will not reproduce (however hard we try), will discretely shuffle off this mortal coil in short order, without causing any more bother,



Yeah but you smell like cabbage and can't remember where you put your car keys.


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## FatmanG (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> That's just plain 100% wrong, you do not understand the information you have posted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Last try: you disputed my information as to the definition change in 2016 by the WHO, I post you the paper outlining the change. The Modern a CEO was proving the change. The point is that the vaccine as most people understood it to mean is pre 2016 where it would eradicate the disease like polio,measles etc but instead they've been sold down the river with a vaccine that's been rushed using methods untested for safety long term that costs an absolute fortune that will prolong the life of the over 80s and the infirm but will do absolutely nothing to end the lockdown and destruction of the economy because it has no measure of stopping transmission. 
I have 100% understood what I read.


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## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

FatmanG said:


> Last try: you disputed my information as to the definition change in 2016 by the WHO, I post you the paper outlining the change. The Modern a CEO was proving the change. The point is that the vaccine as most people understood it to mean is pre 2016 where it would eradicate the disease like polio,measles etc but instead they've been sold down the river with a vaccine that's been rushed using methods untested for safety long term that costs an absolute fortune that will prolong the life of the over 80s and the infirm but will do absolutely nothing to end the lockdown and destruction of the economy because it has no measure of stopping transmission.
> I have 100% understood what I read.



You have not addressed any of the substance of my reply.

There is every chance these vaccines could eliminate COVID-19 and that is absolutely the aim of the global policy response.


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## Rorschach (23 Dec 2020)

Jake said:


> There is every chance these vaccines could eliminate COVID-19 and that is absolutely the aim of the global policy response.



There is no chance it will be eliminated, it will become endemic and just another virus that we live with.


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## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Rorschach said:


> There is no chance it will be eliminated, it will become endemic and just another virus that we live with.



I think your rules are post a response with a link to a controlled double blind study or else your statement is irrelevant and vacuous.

Edit: I cannot believe the lack of ambition, thankfully the people actually forming the human response to this are less fatalistic.


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## XH558 (23 Dec 2020)

doctor Bob said:


> Teir 4 as well, I live in Hertfordshire.
> Just trying to wrap my head around what I can do.
> Was seeing 2x 87year old parents on Xmas day. Both not well, hope I get a few more future Christmas's.


Matching Green is in Essex................


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## Jake (23 Dec 2020)

Yorkieguy said:


> Bill Gates who - via his Foundation has donate huge amounts of his considerable fortune to research into debilitation diseases.



One of the worst bits of mis/dis info in this whole thing has been the Sorosification of Gates. Both complicated figures, but each turned into great philanthropists.


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## Tom K (23 Dec 2020)

Suffolkboy said:


> Wait... You live next to a cemetery? Speak to people all day long? Jesus wept man what are you doing wasting your time on here. You should be at number 10 advising the PM!! Good god man! You're just what this country needs to steer us through this pandemic.
> 
> The only difficulty is how do we get you to number 10 and still maintain surveillance on this all important cemetery that clearly handles all of the people that die in the whole UK? I know. We'll put a webcam in your front window and pay a team of statisticians to count the comings and goings of the ambulances. My only concern is will their data recording and analysis be up to your clearly extremely rigorous standards? We can't afford to let anything slip through the net.
> 
> ...


Ah well at least you are on the right forum nothing better on a woodwork forum than a plank and a nice thick one too!


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## doctor Bob (23 Dec 2020)

XH558 said:


> Matching Green is in Essex................


Yes it is ....... I live in hertfordshire ......... workshop at matching green.


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## Phil Pascoe (23 Dec 2020)

Time this thread was put out of its misery.


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## Lons (23 Dec 2020)

It's remarkably similar both in content and some of the protagonists as the last thread that was deleted. Same old, same old!


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## pcb1962 (24 Dec 2020)

Phil Pascoe said:


> Time this thread was put out of its misery.


It's been useful for finding people to add to my ignore list.


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## Noel (24 Dec 2020)

Ok folks, 90 minutes plus injury time, whistle has gone.
A lot of, erm, interesting, views.


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